“Time Senez Probsyeis Time “Soyer [5 a Seguence of obsenabo0s of categeval yy numercat vorsables Indeced by a date os timestamp. The mest Commen Application of time Sevier analtcia js SOPOING fuure Values GY a numex Value luaing Che lemporal etructuoe of he data» The availoble Obseavatiens ore tsed & foedice Values “foe the date The _brolitional. oegpessinn models ax not Upegice oe hanolting ® eedening af Csder: The rest Comymonty used bre Certs Ornoubysi A is eoyponenbal smoothing Gnd Pudvoe gressive. mong anevopje— CaRMAd: “The model comsictr Of bro fonts , ra Pras Rages CARD part and o Moy Average (Mp> ee peeoc p 4a > p bm oeles OF PR pat 1 a_i order Of Mb PartE onento ornoothiNy -p powades an exponenseuly weighted — Paeing anes ge of oh peewous4, Obcenveol volues - x The cum It to eskmak the curpernr fevel ord Wee if Aa frooeccest of fume Value. exp mended emoo thing equation &e Valu 7 TH e Smoothing — coswtank of must be between © and | ov Gannot be equal © 0 oF) fee Gable — pecdictfons with srnoothed yonder — VeeHaton , an cra, Value af x & dleaited + Th a vapid acspome b> a mal CAerye wy the pattern af Sbsenvanora {s desired a. doje Volue OF X # Oppo pats Produ) Caren the Weel demand data, hak a exponential | fo3cans fos oe th peveds 2-10 LANG AD dad lO RB k= o bb Peswne Fie?! ele | 2 3 4 Ss b 3 & 4 10Sirnple exponential smoot Fe = Fut % (Pes “ Fi — domaase value dor Coming bmne period - fi - fereout value in | Poste Bre Period - Pea — Petual occurence, IY the 1 fase BP pew X — — Synookhing contane - DD K= 0-10 a 7 — AO: fo CF B20 cPpIaD) ass ‘ &20 Bio e01L Te7T TES 1es- 7863 Th 3 416 4 | — FF eFIleyA+S Ww eeEnxponentiol symootts| ns peed 2-0 Years - od Fos en ap «(P24 care Fp = Fit KCP-FO Py = Rao toto ( B20 Fae) Fo= &20 +o ginlastfs = geo 4 ote CTS -P2) > g20- 4S — 35 ss Foz Pls Eso 18%Gyo T+ o- lo( 150-181) oY fec = 7163 | py = lea porte (Ade TS) Fee Tes fore (19¢-18 fa = Teb3t oo CO — 782d fo= Tbét to 778-1766) fem => beajured [Fem J devecast Value [OY caludtate the value gf Pweout Fro ger K> 6°60 g meter Values Of Shows orpvother end because Tp Azo lyic ple Lat ecsults will be oy. accusae and Where toil) be loz. a 7 ee gf x =0 -60, Une ocsuuis will be 407 andl Here twit! be be7% chan af ev77r Root mea Squared eCver® = Nu.) Cente? guia weet pernand «sol? EP) Ed (ee ) Ge 820 © i 2 q7¢ g20 aaa 3 680 ets 1S arth ps5 Ol ues i 750 7s) 5 7 a Gor 183 v4 a b 164 7 oe 7 6 4°9 Gi ie quot q nS ques NS (0 . aye Ot 1-46 530R ogi > i ope > 23.8.Doasonal \ooratren 19 bene Genes Cearonal varmnatior is a. Varebion~ INO bye Corie with Me —feacs that © oepeaed more or less Fegulacty - Loasonal Varaten may be Cotbed, temperature, TON Yew, proce hodidere, tyeles af Sears OO hodidaye - four types Oh Bme Sener _Poiterns wn Long-term INCreane oY dectage in Che data Toend con be any Juawion such aa Linear exponendal and ton choge ditecsen over 6M | Seascrolty Repeating Cue in the Caries with fired frequencies Chour of e day, weer, mmsch, Year ete.)fp Sesoral pattern @uats af a fixed enown period - ude’ Occurs when the dake nice ond ot, bak without a dixed Frequensy dusabor ~ (@ poise The warden Vora “ ole the gents © Measurement Of Seasonal Vematinns Stes eascnal 0 Rad quontedy Cor ) Auenages - (B® Fra the aemge F dare) Coe Ceasonal) averages: ® Enyoess cach quartenty teaser ayeaiges Qs & pescentage of average af quanertys (or seaueret) averages “THs Qe ine Se indices *Povblara ) Following date Yea Tava YV quonter (aq 18 bb was 6 Ty (9% nb 24] Th © ae “kb 714 © coto= asd Le? Gnevage gf Quortew’ 4 = Ibe Pssunsiny Ne trend in the Somes, Caledat: Searonal indices Per Be Tr e£ quand qvarer ey -& Se 18° 8D 10 ey oo bh Q— BQ>2- Th & 15:2 FUT HF TRE Prg- Ruentesty averages, Ub’ Ta G eas +. oe cv a may 18 | m tas 2 | : : as TB la = soe lay qo 1198 ye tt 7 Quaresy tol 31 _ « aus 1S TOF ea ThE anv wee ; >: 62 ‘ceapral 2/ nb Y, " he indices oye (OPP os eloeI?© Find the bead help a lease Gquace mess GD Divde the omgnal Joe Cawanesty oF monthly by cerraPredy end Value ond must ply Hs Psp lo. Cia they aoe. bend otinunatecl) - The votes $° obteined were §oee Foor bend: Rnd he Guotevt ao menthy averages ota the Se 4 fend eGrinated Volnes © pad the Qwarterty Cor monthtyy) js Souy_S ie And constant Soot by garding 400 Coreen y S- Nubhpy each quorterty COr reontisy average obtained 7 SeP ND a bre combant fortor obtained ™ Jpater) fob the Jaren data belous Comput Coasonal Vanatens Using) oto th pend Pekhod - Year tr Db we wqte bo DT Kw 927 $8 lot loo 86 lage BI tof ab 1149 wee US [ab toy 200d bo ey qo ret ZL Aint clelernune the bend om yeaoty we compube quacstertiy=e acZY/p = 56, = PhO, > ay {bey ] Ga ater ge (eaehote cub ec IIE ae tot 2HCX VIO Yeouty inemenE =2/ _ Quarteny incoement = 2H/y 2d Falbaken of qwarerty fend velues adh) end Value pr dae woes ie holt a) Mp half at? XS we ble Quortedoy Inmemens a)go vend panes the oM quortes 1B fees ord br wd quartes 1s Gutefe perk vor fre OX Quarter 8 bI-b = at and bend volue ft th quarters Us ite _Gonerenty Bird PES cy ue ss 6) ot 2 49 es UO 103 t0F us, la 07 123 129 LYS ist st 18 OF - quartet pena vals bor Orbe ee yous of Ehe me Sees oF heToend el minated Votes ~ Year y LF w ie [gab — tegeog (3h ler4b ABs la] Shag lavas torsg TOP aay 77-67 lob Ua 718° Th 34 1499 scopy U4 27 ATS dsb. Qooo = [oS-F_ [IT 2D Los 62 IT?O¥ Tote 463 nese «forge Bat-g) Biba Ben eee qT] L]@.2G (ora BAIS Seasnal qgoc U3 lon t2 PM indices por Gbaler Fy CLa%e bofss ® too =(or- oF Pre Quater T C1996) Sof, #00 = [31-IS Siti La Catudodz oo ote” Values Cos in bere tabu) » Sven ¥ nee y- yog-!2Comtant dactor = £00 fags. py ~ 6: 99>24 Seasonal inder dor the Bt quasks™ = 92-77 * 049224 92-05 Ceasonal inder dot the 2M guadtes = (Le ze #0°99226 = [17-36 Seasonal jnder fer he wid quaser = (og: T * 619224 SS OL Seasonal (ndet dos bhE rh qassler = SVS # 69922 = Sy tFe@ mnetned) Powngy avec 5 Prevage q fred nurnbes of iteras in Ene Ame Gees vohidn Meve though the see hy a mopping te top terns of Be previous averog? goop and adding te next tn est Successive aves age Cet (Er, Qi)» CE21 Gedy =~ Cin, YD denote open BYNe genres Yr, ¥2-- Un aoe Fhe Vvalre 4 the varnabe Y) coves (rod ng fe bre peri dole bi, toe EM especbvely - G osder ro One Moving averages defned O87 MdYed--4 Bided 490 Yass te m a ™ Her, UrtYot- TN batyar~ Fan 2% as — Ayowng total of hm cabledThe Osder xy no | rng Neegea may ether be odd of even: The trewng avecges of Csder 2 ave, Setdot¥3 — Yoty, th Leta Seat tuy | Gath tty . t uy 2 These mong averages Pe Called 4 tvend Values - Advantages © Mowing dverege Chert-terey — ftudiiad ms « © te veducer Ue elfat a eabeme valle GQ) Tess Moethod is me AYE ° pesonal Foqjuctice and bias af he method elininalts ae Estimates - @ _— Puoab. rnethod Pemese © not © TY the seve ey) Colyitation of mowing Merce " dudy rrakhemabical : Cawge ane, then the Coubecsovne +The choice of the period & mawany arene? oa oni oomount a cane: sf on! 5 dl. penad & seleued, a due Ploe nf the bend Connor he osteinal @) seis Very much aff ected 4 oxbeme Values Coimote the bend values Tg Ce dota qren bua by tabing & 3 Yeosy roeving Oereper fn v | Yeos 1H (98 er (4 CA toes hee . Il (783 | les i bs 4s & US (oF ke 2s Jo 'Yp unis deen al? by 3 yeowy Monng overage, . Yeas les Cinlaths 2-yeas 3-year yf Uni rowing wang ) 4% b “eo Ss aa 148} ; as getestte-2uy EBimak Whe dota pen &v Rs FAHL T= 290 Ls BOIS Hos = 200 (oF UNS Hlos1382 355 lass bs Haschas= 36s Ios Bst254150= LO 150 125+ lSe+lyo= 415° luo a 240/3> 9-7 200/2= 1 355/2>118 365) 124-67 lof = 138-67 Mish = |38-B bend voluies Wing fhe pelow by taxing aH ny Gt Moning aNerDe) eX « Yeoet yolue Year Value (96? qb ay? taro ry ae? ary 20 tae = 40 lar 8 qq. lens 30 (qo YS Lay 18 tage 24 -caus 110 irg nel foros AI Are iy 4 4b Nes a % Th [ee —— maa IS TS a 47 22s SE os jis Ss RRR oy 1B reps GS af los ayos 3350 os ty, BIS Sb PIS” 4o {Sz 3k Qe Ym For yeor (140, Y-Yeowty mong trials = Ad 7 t20tlS =ob L-Yyeawty Moving a 4b, = (tre Cohulo lt Get ae yoars °Fir the Yoo [070, GYeony ming total = qrotisy 30 = Mie A- Seony Led avercefe = Py = 1¢-0 > Centered Mov OnrerenQes 4— Yeanty Cemtencel mowing averages APE 2 ~ Year mening averaayes a he 4 Y eas Moving anerenges for be Yea [9t0 , b-yeasy centre mong cvewege by Calutakd 4, eELYeO Ae see = Wee Por Yead [aH Yeast Centered moving Ne }G-OF 2328 oo. ee a2 IPS catulouz the Centzed Moving averages AY other Yeon - Jfor the fel table ° lasq 4b (94) ass IS lage lay 6 8 la5y S35 ase BBE 1959 lot! ie labo ae «Le (963 [ey Contpute “TC Years mowing averages Year voles Yeas values Haq 1320 heq Toure lel ereee go tT Mmeving av ; emge C OF Percentage x Mow ng averese trethod - a Sieps © Tare centered [2 rnonthy Cor tqve mow veg) @ capers the original dat ar a percents ee Che Centered mowng average. voles bf perge, than prea oan wee for e. Yeara - Puerege the Percerteye Values These Values ave he poelini Coasmas- wylices- P mney (® pad these indices Fe the seen is Noe fooo oo too fy month oe aban berry Aquos ex bapecbyele. “Then, ryucsply Carch Youle by the — Consteinté fretvs aby Cautare fotos = j2.00/com of Monthy Indices OF S 4vo/ Sarno quaviety This a ‘ inarcas mves eApusled season pnAices °|, | 2 Coasonal indices by te | raethed Gon! Catone cpoto— TD — MOV awvenege- the FolLousng dat&! Year SS b id aay. fe be TS Iqae 1s BB BT (999. bo 463) 67 3 zooo Sy °59 5S 10 200, 59 >? Leaay | RL 2poo | RL | 5b 54 5S 58 45 227 | 2 eure. A-daue manag | et 650 535 62) Be Bo} Bor aay bjven dguoas om 7. at Tyonng avery Cot: 3/(ol 6 #120 (3[46->2y wo=41-Tf CIF [bd #100 = 13-0 (CTS ]67-65) #100 = Ilo CEB LED * loo =8T EE (Sb ]p3-3€ 100 = 66-3 eS us $f "3 Sb 6503 £400 67 B 66:00 $336 4213 [C12 [139% (00 = bu 12 | Coo /bu1d4 lO = be-12 | (63/bemreo= 187 Joo | ebyfqm e100 = ST be TS | (Aa feg-n)s (00 = | 8S- 27 66-88 | (Supbp-edol00 = 501 6513 |C 54 bE-1D 7100 = bs+ 38 oot he oeca ee bese |(¢0/bs-50) #00 = (37-57 tc 2 [C5I (65-25) #100 = Fo. $2.36- (58 /b 3 Aloo = 1