proctuction 5 | | Analysts * dtm Salis \ J0vou the trend [ire Graphical Method and esHimalt the produchion fa Loos Years: 1945 =96 97 98 99 too Production: 2 W724 2b fe 37 & Solu tions WY a Gee tbe 11) Ao ye Se Sot ote a) . Visorey ey pyesenteel fr mw» ant | proeluchon Ae wepyesenticl fr J ants Con red fo %= 2003. the rl Co erlhaht + the pow on the line 4 fouret Yo be. 53. Thos the tatimakd . pyocluchin' Th Je (" 008 fs 33 ont: Methed 2 Semi — Ayeroge There ave Wen pou bur cork nes the middlk must year ard The Hn matic Mea fhe observed. yetfues APE | ound Our fer each ae cP] When? hae are odd!» ntimbu a yer Pa middle must years ard the. “Gorrexporchy observe Valuer Gre! onatiied. {o0% GC &— [.| Example». Mefhed 4 sink — feng: Fhe Sales fn Tones Hi & Com orochitg FAW a Varied aE 1970 % £00) @ V Ay ays y A100, L2ho, Lo, 2.40, AXOF-ALo j\; Os O02 fit a, bP renal: sl ites, Ay. othe petted . ef, Stanl— Aeaege + 2 ORs Aév, 300, 280% q CbH mates. fhe + Rls. Tr OPA e pone at P&y =4 Golu fion: Year Sale Pa Myddle Average tonnes most Year s }9q0 ) > aso 1991 50% 20d 1994, > 2&0 1772.5— |bsofe 1993 227s 199% 19955. 19% 1997 M98 i 798 6s 1240/, eae 194 i > Loo [Ler J ARAL aul a > 2oo- . oe ™ pie i” etn evn 50 + 2004 Lev t aso +270 ¢ayo = lbs 230F 230 FQQO 4 204 21g, 20° = [272 Pree eea toane dale nt 9 a b * potate (1999.8, 215) and (1998-5, ais) ave Mayked On @ Oraphe Shute. A Une Ak ebrere dann abeng fhe Sie The tren fine: go Corres por \ pple 200d y> 160 pv! There Nites Hence The esiimad sya LA oy 2002 [4 180 tonnes:}lonte Work foram — Q trend Hine Ay Me mthool ’ d * Semf Average Years 1967-1988 1969 1990 199) ymny 1 Preduciion, 90 Ho 130 15° fon fs " $0 dey, Solution on Yeas Proclu ction Meade A Mestt vorayy Yor 1987 Jo 86 1 lo (988 32) = 1984 [30 199° Igo 124) 100 of ggg OMA (evn [9 450/, Or] ag NK pagbee cago 5 soot Middle med ]004 (0 } doo Wso-2e 1a? 150 re pon (1988 iI Of ohs By ge 1 AP Bore % 0) and C19 ae 150) qin et ashetig Ther. LF Pa Ateleili. —_—_ reset 4 mony Beep’ vy ee ae ae qhe mothe! the most tel one 4 jrend.- Avery v As me thocle aa atinalig Ae de are ache. pehool « Girapk shu * pot mad for tabewlede- she trend: Caleulete & year moving Qure yey therw jue gfucents Strely a Collage how wh sep we tee PD tip years 1997 86 18% Pray: Sat $9 SU 357 37a yon te esc ae eee h fe ait qs fio aS fo 438| Os "4 3 yer movig 40]u Fn /- Yeay No 4 Shclens By cad a b jor 7 1984 332 — —_ 1988 3! come ~~ 1959 357i) | 17974 —7 ase-® 1990 312 [fs 1867 273-4 194) og > (@4L > SPS-4 (99 HOS) -S 2034 > 407-2 1993 HIE Sy 2049 —P4OFE 194 are 4 HQT > i oa AtT 19as— 4Os- is — a 1998. 438— ee ee hott (om Flaachabons Avereg ex: oletumind | the trend Caveroge) ard | Years 1983 -3h ee aT RT Prediction 2! a2 83 as ah AQ as- | ao =e il) T4R a aT abJhon Hou. fluctuatsn ye Ye 0-34 al bh: 4 te pred valu verre ible Pacing cevicy Atogts caladate- ant shert-dum plasnecea yor HEI ~82 83 6, a5 se #78 ao pete 4 se aT gee ET led a | Slaten ___ > aye is peactin | *Ma ms wf. Soa ier TH] [me | Oy Te 7 . - || : Lh Spstee 48 ize 1 se = ee A ly 4021 > | £621 Ly pe short om A leaveliom y- Ye £2.35Codcwase b yearly con yret uy Average aie company. Yer: age - 67 & $7 7° Protector 6 (Emam Smee Ay) ga. 18 hy, Ie 1B 77 o Ry a2 ah AF A dY 6 99° — Apor: a- kT lo . Blot the actuol olate 4 an trend Valuer on «gmp ohet- Doe a < B gearly moving jolal: 64 +o I7y. mwig po hel The The In Thee Syew divided 4 12 (60) Anw at are fowl en geo cen Trek movirg Avery.yeu 1985 1986 1987 I Iss 19849 (140 194] ada 1993 1944 IMS (a6 1997 1998 144 000 | Sela don: re 12 B ~ Is = 4 54 My ae 1b tel tg 108 oH ise ae 133 2 May 24 WT as 148 al 183 eS 137 oF - lo - “ «av ni oF PLE Qos” 299 aq 29s 3el AGO enue) meri aves Aye gyM ethed *). Casita Lely Lata aahha- The ‘frenol fine cy foun y= add yodbn Io The gover dato. [ead sq ware ahd whimede pita straight fire’ Iver te YY ) by Ik mae} heel “4 fhe Vou lawsNee Sy = 10 agi oy sy Nb + Bsn —>(@ Emye doo ed ue eS @ Sx" [0 “Joo = HHIL(I yD ‘Joo = 5m A = Joo o ol o0= (0+ B(/0) : $00 0 = VOB: oo _* 2A the dod y= APEX ince Be 4 ; Vay (VS 4e4 40x ry ¥ aad 904 \- ' | Me po+ ag(x ~ rast) NS Tho astiniatedt Year, X= las” Preyfu valu m abe fw 18S f4 ethimate rN_—_ | ‘ a‘ ) eT solution Ue metod of | ay ti 200K) rt a Lwar T {| Linear Trend equadiar by leat squene ancl quimate Uo wel pref Yeat | Mas | 196) lear e 000 | 200) 19 Seasonal Fluctuations ‘to timate the Following Fo ae ett f" easonad variation * Geaional abtmple Averagesmothod._4 1 of Birmple Averope— efeasonal Averages Genel averages “We Beason Tnaex= ae eee = the Seasonal Index for the falavrgcy,olution | Your 14a M44» Ye laa GQuatloy uvY ] Aevaonal “Avwuye Aeawonal Index ‘ oT Gland Avosage f + We You 10 T= 18-429 ue 24 Xl00 Abily AQ Myplola: Gawd Average = gee 1B at lOPHtITE 98. jap 50" ‘ : ‘ 1 radon - Leawnal AE xi00 Breas ee Grid AME 8.25, 9 yu « a T1808. agp = tro 3 anh i ea ale ald rmt | a. Ld ol apse ysis aeet wd Wr 439-6 x10 2178-746. 1334S or een ER Narod L Inder Number mothoda Metheds [aan vile tl weil (atwple) | : mpl opty Wlaightcd Wloighted Agpegatives — xivewye (0%) Aggregate Averaye amethods Relative 9 wetleod Methe folate methed Je Cor) Unwdetyhted. Aggngative Method. > a Par FH xis pria Tnclox . , ) Quantiiy Trclexx On = “He ae tar) ; ae us Gem, Por =Aniilor i I trom the 2 flloody bai Contract an Inder for 1995 Taking 1744 4% Bae.Conmocliltes- 1925 Brain (RS) ty polu: Commodéiia | PR Pte. | orem 1 oP commie eo tar | A { | e [wer nae B e 22. wo= 18-5 190) figoat 182 kigo=t01-07 et 28 x1o0 0 atte Method - . ocivensY EF ZF. p00 for, 800, BP = B60 Zio. a Pai . : Core) = 3B nio0 ¥. 1205» |Tindex Alamber oAntilog (i) a cAwiley (3-082) > 190-834 Neijhied Agpepptive athe J Prta Trolew (Par) | ZR 40 & lai ' ia Pr Le 1 Peyer's formula Te ae GH Paouchos formula Pye = PM y,, 2Rq (7) Fishur's formula ) 2 Pat, 2A80 «ERO °\ Shem “Enq . Foher's Tdoal: = \ Pot x PoPoduetons Oe 42 RIe Laspeyer's P+ = —— «00 Polo = 1490 100 = 19b-532 Jono Paasche’ Pol Pp. Shh xo Z Pot = 1400 poz 135 +934- 10630 | ZPito. shh, Fedor’ PoP 2 Zn "moni x100 =\ 136-538 X 135-422 460 = \ 19558-51801 = 136-9a9b518 " -- 136-d2- Pars 13be2a-ax ‘eas SaS 80SIb = ores 0688 (\ = (hag te) (666-1H) As —_— ee I dF) at eae AME A ug yore MRA a0Ix =] bg"lb = 7) faop * te oon Tae dAMP PLD gaelh = #99) oor gy = ode ony Paes ly aah /| Using Fishers ideal Formule + Fnolea Neunther for Ita, the fellate , eo _ | _ Compnnelity A pom = ] ¥ ye | Quantity Prva. 2 |Compute psta andl quailty with 1496 base “year ew" a@ ‘Fisher's Tdeal Cote eee Pato Index oa > ZAdn y ZRU Numer ZPote Zp 9a >. a, — tip © tao 7 —— 0+836x% OF X100 = \} 9-698. x10 = 018354 X 100 = 83-5 CRS) a ja = : N x” — W) Qn Span” Erde oe 6 ae, WE eo Capea yegoFx 1206 100 = \pi tte rma1 of Relat Relatives M othe Methal CO) veing Asm) Po= a me te u“e Gt)vaivg Gon Por doitlg = a) aydoe umber Of Pras for 1948, to cola given’ Below. ‘Calwlato the the Bases of (295 asscm 60S F an: Ae aageaare (ty lore? Wey « : cbelr (ca) ay aiyconxtl ALG 5 #80} o«ipbay aqicoasllg que e | (hg onto) 0gf2001X joy a \ , qare- Ooo : | Gag Ger lay AGuea0KK G5 Y |is WP (0 Using Att Poi = 1) ni = 1430p top Gi) Dastng Grm=Antilog [ aulap ] ‘Ad: - Antilg (Fie ae =) = Aptiley [a-te05] =143 > Abs, Test — Of _Lousictoncy and aebqutey 6) Unit text i Find He Lospoyes Pat = 22 a0 , Faace's , robs prs for tha cbiprence Yaw Pha Po 8 dimple °a@pregative meted U1) Poi * 2 xo GHP (i) By Paache's Por?= a(9e-gar) xC6 88-901) PEB-aa1< | 798-901 = aug Oak ope * 9g a1 < OE ad ened —_ om spas ~yquct \) Zhe x Ba TZP le | X00 ZPodt - \) {200 . ene —_— 18 8e V 1360 ~% —— y) 3470x2188 = parte Bay Bake, Bah )8a* | Saom * Zeon wWidTime Reversal Tat = PoixPwo=! ee Py = \ Zee p AH ne Bra “Spite WBA yp 1362 1830 1900 iy) TR Tet: “p90 1880. 1880 Poi ePie= \) “1360” aay 1344» 1360 “1880. “T400 1. 1) ractos Result Totti Vv “Hany, 1880. Poi % Qoi = - 1300 ~ [400 “1980 1330 _)(1880)* 1560... {13t0" Beh afe > in bear abate tl (nue Roveraid and factor Rey bong Heyyy © bey ping (he given deta) Fisher's stheley Coal Of Ling Erde Dihogregate expontiune method Cor) ‘hlewhtec ogpregadive mothe. G>Cou ob Leg 9 AG Telex Numbos | FA oe es iD Fait buclget matteo Cor) inletghted Averagey, Relett es wethed - Coat Of. Living wT Cy Tinchy’ , ie Zh) | Wletghtocl Gternentrte — tnean Of Cost of- Livig Trelos Mo. | | “Comstract | Cale of Laing tnclex Laling 140) in ‘from the. pollowing ‘dete - Lstyy tagg regatie I Cipordlture viclhted | i Ag| Ao 32 Bev SO at 1 AD: tugs ye weeaN ac a Ln ca nr er ea 0 ley an /\ ye é a4 got alata Cost ™ nt” Thelen _ = 4-087 = fF. 97. as itn Inder = Mc} heel LV: X Leo < fo Vo