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THE EFFECT OF NET EXPORTS AND FOREIGN DIRECT

INVESTMENT ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN SIERRA LEONE


(2000-2021)

EMMANUEL BONGAY
Department of Economics /University of Makeni, Sierra Leone/ Economic Association of Sierra Leone/ Commonwealth Youth Scholar/ Gateway
policy consultancy Firm.
https://linktr.ee/emmanulbongay https://universityofmakeni.academia.edu/EmmanuelBongay

ABSTRACT

This research examines the impact of net exports and foreign direct investment (FDI), on gross
domestic product (GDP) in Sierra Leone from 2000 to 2021. The study analyses data from the
World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and other sources to determine the impact of
these variables on the country's economic growth. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
approach to cointegration was employed as a suitable estimation technique for this research. The
findings therefore revealed that FDI is positive and is the only variable that impacts the GDP of
Sierra Leone in the long run. The outcome of this study therefore reminds that policy
recommendations geared towards enhancing economic growth in Sierra Leone in the long run
should prioritize the boosting of foreign direct investment in the country. One way that
government can achieve this is through by providing tax incentives, develop infrastructure and
promote local industries which can attract more foreign investors in the country.

Keywords: Net Exports, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Sierra Leone JEJ Classification: F17, E12, E13 2023

Author: Tel- +23278737182


Email: Address- emmanuelbongay44@gmail.com
1.0 INTRODUCTION

The impact of international trade on national economies has become an increasingly important
topic of discussion as the world becomes more globally connected. Sierra Leone has seen
significant growth through both net exports and foreign direct investment. Over the years, Sierra
Leone has seen fluctuations in its gross domestic product (GDP) as a result of various factors,
including political instability and economic shocks. Despite this, the country has maintained a
steady growth trend in GDP over the years, and this has led to increased interest in understanding
the effect of net exports and foreign direct investment on GDP in Sierra Leone. According to the
Observing Economic Complexity (OEC, 2019), the country is classified as the 152nd exporting
economy in the world. Iron ore, diamonds, titanium ore, cocoa and coffee, aluminium ore, and
timber (OEC, 2019) are among the country’s major exporting commodities. For instance, in
2017, the country’s gross exports were $839 million while its imports were $1.3 billion, causing
a negative balance of trade of $457 million. It is clear that exports have been the engine for
upgrading production quality, motivating overseas investments, supplying foreign currencies to
the state treasury, and creating a healthy economic environment for competition and
productivity. Exports play a role in influencing the expenditure balance and reducing
unemployment rates.

According to recent data from the Sierra Leone Investment and Export Promotion Agency
(SLIEPA), the agricultural sector contributed to approximately 51 percent of the country's gross
domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021, with 17 percent of that derived from exporting
commodities.

West Africa, as a region, has witnessed diverse patterns in GDP behavior over the years. Several
countries within the region have undergone remarkable transformations, moving from agrarian
economies to emerging markets. Nigeria, Ghana, and Ivory Coast have experienced significant
growth and development, owing to factors such as natural resources, industrialization, and
favorable investment climates.

Sierra Leone's economic journey is a unique narrative in the West African context. Following a
violent civil war in the late 1990s, the country embarked on a path towards stability and progress.
Sierra Leone has made significant progress in rebuilding its economy, attracting foreign

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investments, and fostering trade relationships over the past 20 years. Understanding the growth
trends and factors that influence GDP in Sierra Leone can offer valuable insights into the
dynamics of economic development in the region.

The economic growth of a country can be impacted by foreign direct investment (FDI) and net
exports. In Sierra Leone, FDI has risen steadily over the years, with net inflows of USD 0.22
billion in 2021. The manufacturing sector in Sierra Leone has been identified as a key driver of
economic development by FDI. The country's ability to attract foreign investment is hindered by
corruption, lack of infrastructure, political violence, and social unrest.

Net exports negatively affect Sierra Leone's GDP. According to the World Bank, net exports
made up 20.6% of GDP in 2020. This suggests that Sierra Leone has a heavy dependence on
imports and a trade deficit. The country's exports are mainly made up of agricultural products
like cocoa, coffee, and palm oil. The lack of diversification in the export sector and the low
productivity of the agricultural sector are some of the factors that contribute to the negative
impact of net exports on GDP.

The aim of this study is to comprehensively analyze the impact of net exports and foreign direct
investment on the gross domestic product of Sierra Leone from 2000 to 2021. By examining the
intricate relationships between these variables, the study seeks to shed light on the factors that
have shaped Sierra Leone's economic landscape and identify key drivers of its GDP growth.
Furthermore, the objectives of this research include evaluating the impact of net exports and FDI
on Sierra Leone's economic performance, identifying potential challenges or barriers to growth,
and formulating recommendations for the government and investors to enhance the country's
economic prospects.

This study aims to contribute to the existing knowledge on economic development in Sierra
Leone through an in-depth examination of empirical data, statistical analysis, and relevant
theoretical frameworks. By gaining a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between net
exports, foreign direct investment, and gross domestic product, the government, investors, and
researchers can foster strategies and initiatives that promote sustainable growth and economic
prosperity in Sierra Leone and other countries facing similar challenges.

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1.2 AN OVERVIEW OF SIERRA LEONE'S ECONOMY

Between 2000 and 2021, Sierra Leone's economy has undergone significant changes. Sierra
Leone has a favorable attitude towards FDI, which is essential to spur the country's economic
growth and development.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Sierra Leone has been a significant source of capital and
resource inflow, particularly for countries in which spillover of technology and advanced
production techniques are required to aid local industries to improve and become more
productive. The net inflow of FDI as a percentage of GDP has fluctuated over the years, with a
significant increase in 2011 and 2012, followed by a decrease in subsequent years, with a
significant increase in 2019. Despite having vast deposits of minerals and fertile land for
agricultural purposes, Sierra Leone has relied on foreign aid to finance its economic activities
and national budget deficits. The behavior of FDI in Sierra Leone from 2000 to 2021 has
fluctuated. FDI is seen as crucial to solving the country's economic growth and development, and
the country has a favorable attitude towards it.

Figure 1.1. FDI growth as in percentage from the period of 2000 to 2021
LnFDI
4

-1
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Computed by the researcher using Eviews 12

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Sierra Leone's net export behavior from 2000 to 2021 has been characterized by fluctuations in
both exports and imports. Sierra Leone's top exports include titanium ore, iron ore, rough wood,
diamonds, and aluminum ore. According to the World Bank, Sierra Leone had a total export of
$205,368.28 thousand in 2020 in 2021; Sierra Leone's exports were $0.72B, which was a 17.32%
increase from 2020

The main export destinations for Sierra Leone are China, Belgium, Germany, the United Arab
Emirates, and Romania.

The country's top imports include rice, refined petroleum, cars, packaged medicaments, and
poultry meat World Bank of 2020 reveals that, Sierra Leone had a total import of $986,898.69
thousand in 2020.

The main import sources for Sierra Leone are China, India, Turkey, the United States, and the
United Arab Emirates

The country’s suffered a negative trade balance, meaning that its imports exceed its exports.
According to the World Bank, Sierra Leone's trade balance was -$781,530.41 thousand in 2020

Sierra Leone's net export behavior has been characterized by a negative trade balance due to the
country's high import levels. However, the country has experienced an increase in exports in
recent years, particularly in 2021.

Figure 1.2. NEXP growth as in percentage from the period of 2000 to 2021
LnNEXP
2.0

1.6

1.2

0.8

0.4

0.0
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Computed by the researcher using Eviews 12

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Sierra Leone's post-pandemic recovery was disrupted by concurrent domestic and external
shocks, exacerbating existing macro-fiscal vulnerabilities. Inflation and exchange rate
depreciation reached record levels, depressing economic activity, and triggering a severe cost-of-
living crisis. Fiscal accounts have deteriorated due to macroeconomic headwinds and policy
slippages, and risks to debt sustainability have intensified.

The economy of Sierra Leone is composed of various sectors. Agriculture: 58.5% Other
Services: 10.4% Trade and Tourism: 9.5% Wholesale and Retail Trade: 9.0% Mining and
Quarrying: 4.5% Government Services: 4.0%

The GDP of Sierra Leone has experienced fluctuations and challenges due to various factors
such as domestic and external shocks, inflation, exchange rate depreciation, and policy slippages.
The country's economy is heavily reliant on the agriculture sector, with other sectors also
contributing to the GDP.

The GDP growth rate of Sierra Leone was 2.73% in 2017, 3.46% in 2018, which shows a decline
of 0.73% from 2017, and 5.25% in 2019, a 1.79% increase from 2018.

The GDP growth rate for 2020 was -1.97%, a 7.22% decline from 2019, and 4.10% in 2021, a
6.07% increase from 2020.

I n 2021 the GDP growth rate for 2021 was encouraging, but the estimated GDP growth for 2022
has been revised downwards to nearly 3%, marking a reversal of the rebound observed in 2021

Figure 1.3 GDP growths as in percentage from the period of 2000 to 2021
LnGDP
22.4

22.0

21.6

21.2

20.8

20.4

20.0
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Computed by the researcher using Eviews 12

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3. LITERATURE REVIEW

Sierra Leone is a small, open, and largely undiversified economy, with agriculture accounting for
over 50% of GDP and minerals providing over 60% of export earnings. The country has
experienced wild swings in GDP growth rates, largely driven by the agriculture and mining
sectors that are subject to large external shocks.

In recent years, foreign direct investment (FDI) has been recognized as a significant factor in
economic growth, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Sierra Leone faces a chronic trade
deficit, and the lack of diversification in the export sector and the low productivity of the
agricultural sector are some of the factors that contribute to the negative impact of net exports on
GDP.

Several empirical studies have investigated the relationship between net exports, FDI, and GDP
in Sierra Leone. Turay et al. (2021) used time series data from 1990 to 2019 to investigate the
effect of exports on economic growth in Sierra Leone.

The study found that exports have a significant positive effect on economic growth in Sierra
Leone, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP). The study also found that there is a long-
run relationship between exports and economic growth, as indicated by the Johansen
cointegration test. However, the study did not find a relationship between net exports and GDP.

Another study by Kargbo and Conteh (2019) examined the impact of FDI on economic growth in
Sierra Leone using annual time series data from 1980 to 2017.

The study found that FDI has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in both the
short and long run. The study also found that gross capital formation and population growth are
positive and significant determinants of GDP growth in both the static long-run and dynamic
short-run models.

In a similar study, Bangura and Sesay (2019) investigated the determinants of economic growth
in Sierra Leone using annual time series data from 1980 to 2017.

Another study found that FDI has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in the
long run, while net exports have a negative and significant impact on economic growth in the

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short run. The research also found that gross capital formation and population growth are
positive and significant determinants of GDP growth in both the static long-run and dynamic
short-run models.

Dincer, N., & Kandil, M. (2011) analyzed the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on export
sectors in Sierra Leone between 1996 and 2008. Their findings suggested that currency
appreciation, resulting from positive exchange rate shocks, could increase net exports by
reducing the cost of imported inputs and boosting output supplied.

Deichmann, J., Karidis, S., & Sayek, S. (2003) investigated the determinants of FDI inflows in
Sierra Leone. The study emphasized the importance of agglomeration variables in attracting
foreign firms to specific regions, while also highlighting the need for effective public policies to
encourage investment and reduce regional imbalances.

The empirical studies (Ellion& Sayek, s.(2019) suggest that FDI has a positive impact on
economic growth in Sierra Leone, while net exports have a negative impact on economic growth
in the short run. The studies also highlight the importance of gross capital formation and
population growth as positive determinants of GDP growth.

In a study on the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in Sierra Leone,
it was found that FDI is expected to have a positive and significant impact on the growth of the
country's economy(Thompson's 20190)

The relationship between FDI and economic growth in Sierra Leone has been found to be
negative in some cases.

According to the World Bank, Sierra Leone's foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP
was 0.22% in 2021.

To attract more FDI, Sierra Leone needs to address challenges such as the slow legal system,
corruption, and lack of infrastructure

Policies to improve the accessibility of affordable credit by the private sector, including small
and medium-sized enterprises, could also help attract more.

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4. METHODOLOGY

This research aims to investigate the impact of net exports and foreign direct investment (FDI)
on the economic growth of Sierra Leone. The study use a quantitative research design and
secondary data from sources such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund

FDI is recognized as a significant factor in economic growth, and it is considered in the literature
as an essential driver of economic growth. In Sierra Leone, FDI has been steadily increasing over
the years, with a net inflow of 5.2518% of GDP in 2021. FDI has been identified as a key driver
of economic development in Sierra Leone, particularly in the manufacturing sector.

The necessary investment often surpasses national savings, necessitating foreign capital inflows
in the form of FDI or international savings portfolios. Sierra Leone faces a chronic trade deficit,
and the lack of diversification in the export sector and the low productivity of the agricultural
sector are some of the factors that contribute to the negative impact of net exports on GDP.

The research design used in this study is based on a time series data analysis covering a period of
21 years, from 2000 to 2021. This time frame provides a recent and comprehensive analysis of
the impact of net exports and FDI on GDP in Sierra Leone. Date computed and analyzed using
statistical software such as Eviews 12 by the researcher. The study used the Augmented Dickey-
Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests to determine the order of integration for the
variables of the research. These tests assess the order of integration of all the variables of the
research. After determining the order of integration, and discovering that some of the variables
are stationary at a level while some are stationary at the first difference, calls for the use of an
ARDL model as a suitable estimation technique. As a suitable requirement for the use of an
ARDL model, a johansen cointegration or bound test is normally done for determining the long
and short run relationship among variables. If the bound test result exhibit long run relationship
among variables, a long run model is run. But if it exhibit short run relationship among variables,
a short run model (ECM) is run for determining the impact of the independent variable on the
dependent variable of the study. The ARDL Model also gives prominence to the selection of
optimum lag for the study. Several diagnostic tests can also be applied in using an ARDL model,
example of which include Serial correlation LM Test, Heteroskedasticity Test, Ramsey’s
Regression Equation Specification Error test (RESET) test , Stability Test and the Normality Test.

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5.0 DATA AND EMPIRICAL FINDINGS

5.1 UNIT ROOT TEST

In order to determine the order of integration, the study employed the Augmented Dickey-Fuller
(ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests. Table 1 and table 2 present the ADF and PP unit
root test results of all variables used in this research. The results indicate a mixture of I (1) and I
(0) series among variables for both the ADF and PP unit root tests, suggesting the applicability
of the ARDL model as the suitable estimation model for this research since it follows the
convention of including both I (0) and I (1) series among variables.

Table 1: Augmented Diskey-fuller Test)

LEVEL FIRST DIFFERENCE Order of


Variables Intercept Trend Intercept Trend Integration
Ln GDP -(2.694283)* -(1.532598) -(2.831511)* -(3.704115)** I(1)
Ln FDI -(2.140905) -(2.754229) -(5.390610)*** -(5.327570)*** I(1)
Ln NETP -(4.046449)*** -(4.030268)** I(0)

Table 2: Phillip-perron Test

LEVEL FIRST DIFFERENCE Order of


Variables Intercept Trend Intercept Trend integration
LnGDP -(3.829713)*** -(2.327668) -(4.264478)*** -(4.012314)** I(1)
LnFDI -(2.210513) -(2.973714) -(5.546044)*** -(8.948185)*** I(1)
LnNEXP -(4.044803)*** -(4.030268)** – – I(0)
Computed by the researcher using Eviews 12
Note: X* = 10% significant level X** = 5% significant level X*** = 1% significant level

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5.2 COINTEGRATION TEST

Table 2 presents the results of the ARDL bound test for cointegration. The study conducted the
cointegration test using the ARDL bounds testing approach to examine the existence of a long-
run relationship among the variables of the research. The result shows that, the t-statistic of (-
7.505889) fell above the upper bound and at the 10% significant level. This therefore indicated
the presence of a long run relationship among the variables of the research and thus making it
necessary for running the long run model for this study.

Table 2: cointegration / bound test

Computed by the researcher using Eviews 12

5.3 LAG LENGTH SELECTION CRITERIA


There are various criteria used in selecting suitable lag lengths in different studies. However, for
this study, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is chosen and the result indicated that the
most suitable lag for this research is one (1) as indicated in Table 3 below.

Table 3: lag length selection criteria

Computed by the researcher using Eviews 12

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5.4 ARDL ESTIMATION OF LONG AND SHORT RUN MODEL

5.4.1 Long Run Model

The result of the long run model for this study is presented in Table 4 below. Analysis of this
result indicated that, of all the two independent variables used in this research, only foreign
direct investment (FDI) has an impact on the Gross Domestic Product of Sierra Leone. This is as
a result that the estimated coefficient of foreign direct investment is positive and statistically
significant at 1%. However, the estimated coefficient of FDI of 0.412 implies that, if foreign
direct investment is increased by 1%, there will be an increase of 0.412% of GDP in Sierra
Leone in the long run. This has therefore revealed that the increase in the GDP of Sierra Leone is
partly due to the growth of FDI in the country.

Table 4: Long run Model

Computed by the research using Eviews 12

5.4.2 Short Run Model

The result of the R-square for this research as indicated in table 5 below is 0.832810. This
indicates that 83.28% of the variation in the dependent variable (GDP) is explained by the
independent variable of the research. This has indicated a strong prediction power of the
independent variable of the research.

The F-statistic as indicated in table 5, explains the fitness of the model. The result of the f-
statistic of 0.000 is statistically significant and therefore indicate that the overall model is well
fit, meaning that at least one of the independent variables of the research has a significant impact
on the dependent variable.

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The result of the error correction term (ECTt-1) as indicated in table 5 suggests that there is a
long-run relationship between the variables and a convergence towards equilibrium; this means
that any short-run shocks in the regressors will be corrected in the long run.

However, analysis of the short run result for the impact of the independent variables on the
dependent variable of the research revealed that, both foreign direct investment and net export
has no impact on GDP in Sierra Leone in the short run. This is because, the coefficient of FDI as
shown in table 5 is not statistically significant while for net export the regression results captured
no output despite being included in the running of the mode. However, the insignificant impact
of FDI on GDP in the short run might be as a result that FDI is a long-term investment, and its
impact on the economy may take time to materialize.

Table 5: Short run model


Selected model: ARDL (1, 0, 1)

Computed by the researcher using Eviews 12

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5.5. DIAGNOSTIC TESTS

Table 6: Serial correlation LM Test

Computed by the researcher using Eviews 12

The serial correlation LM test reveals that the variables of the research model are not serially
correlated because the probability value of the serial correlation test is greater than five percent
as indicated in table 6 above.

Table 7: Heteroskedasticity Test

Computed by the research using Eviews 12

The heteroskedasticity test conducted in the research showed that all variables were stable,
indicating that the model is reliable and the validity of the findings are authentic.

Table 8: Ramsey’s Reset Test

Computed by the researcher using Eviews 12

Table 8 showed the Ramsey’s reset test to showing the functional specification of the model ,
the probability value is greater one five 5% which mean there is no functional specification in the
model.

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Figure 5.1 Stability Test

Computed by the researcher using Eviews 12

The stability test as showed in figure 1.4 indicates that the model is stable, as the kurtosis line
comfortably lies within the 5% significance level.

Figure 5.2 Normality Test

Computed by the researcher using Eviews 12

The normality test results suggest that the data is normally distributed, indicating that the model
is reliable for further analysis.

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6.0 CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS:

Based on the research findings, I recommend that the government of Sierra Leone prioritize
measures to boost foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country.

The government of Sierra Leone should prioritize policies that encourage foreign investment and
improve the country's infrastructure to attract more foreign investors.

The Investment Promotion Act 2004 protects foreign entities from discriminatory treatment, and
the law creates incentives and customs exemptions, provides for investors to freely repatriate
proceeds and remittances, and protects against expropriation without prompt and adequate
compensation.

The government should offer tax incentives to foreign investors to encourage them to invest in
Sierra Leone. This may include tax holidays, reduced tax rates, and other incentives that make
investing in the country more attractive.

Investing and developing the infrastructural capacity of Sierra Leone, such as roads, ports, and
airports, to make it easier for foreign investors to do business in Sierra Leone. This will help
reduce the cost of doing business and make the country more attractive to investors.

The government should focus on promoting local industries and business start-ups by providing
incentives to local businesses and encouraging foreign investors to partner with local companies.
This will help create jobs and boost economic growth in the country.

Over the years, corruption has been a major barrier to investment in Sierra Leone.

The government should take steps to address corruption by implementing anti-corruption


measures and promoting financial integrity and transparency in governance. The government
should also continue to monitor the impact of FDI on the country's economy and adjust policies
as needed to ensure that FDI continues to support economic growth and development in Sierra
Leone.

I recommend that the government increase access to electricity in the country to attract the FDI.
This is because FDI has a positive impact on the growth of an economy.

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Sierra Leone is a developing country that depends on foreign direct investment and foreign aid to
support economic activities, even though the country has vast deposits of minerals like iron ore,
rutile, diamonds, and vast fertile land for agricultural purposes. Increasing access to electricity
will help to attract FDI, which will, in turn, support economic growth in the country.

The government should improve the rule of law in the country to ensure fair judgment. This is
crucial because concurrent global and domestic shocks have hindered the country's economic
development and macroeconomic management remains weak.

By enhancing the rule of law it will create a conducive environment for businesses to thrive,
which will ultimately support economic growth.

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VURAL, Y., & Zortuk, M. (2011). Foreign Direct Investment as a Determining Factor in Turkey
s Export Performance.

Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 4(7), 13-23. Tapşın, G. (2016).

The relationship between foreign direct investment, export and economic growth in Turkey.
Journal of Business Management and Economics, 4(5), 1-6.

Dincer, N., & Kandil, M. (2011). The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on exports: A sectoral
analysis for Turkey. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 20(6), 809-
837. Deichmann, J., Karidis, S., & Sayek, S. (2003).

Foreign direct investment in Turkey: regional determinants. Applied Economics, 35(16), 1767-
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https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS?locations=SL

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/sierraleone/overview

https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=115125

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/SLE/sierra-leone/foreign-direct-investment

https://www.state.gov/reports/2021-investment-climate-statements/sierra-leone/

https://www.state.gov/reports/2020-investment-climate-statements/sierra-leone/

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