Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University

Dinajpur, Bangladesh

Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering

A thesis report on
Optimal Sizing and Techno-Economic Analysis of Stand-alone
Hybrid Energy System for Kutubdia Island Bangladesh

Course code: EEE-488

Course Title: Project/Thesis

Supervised by Submitted by
Md. Imran Hossain
Md. Mizanur Rahman Student ID: 1702208
Assistant Professor K.M. Iftekharul Alam
Department of Electrical and Electronic Student ID: 1702215
Engineering Rajib Shuvrah Datta
Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Student ID: 1702252
Technology University

NOVEMBER, 2022
Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University
Dinajpur, Bangladesh

Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering

A thesis report on
Optimal Sizing and Techno-Economic Analysis of Stand-alone
Hybrid Energy System for Kutubdia Island Bangladesh

This report is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of
Bachelor of Engineering in Electrical and Electronic Engineering at Hajee Mohammad
Danesh Science and Technology University, Dinajpur, Bangladesh.

Supervised by Submitted by
Md. Imran Hossain
Md. Mizanur Rahman
Student ID: 1702208
Assistant Professor
K.M. Iftekharul Alam
Department of Electrical and Electronic
Student ID: 1702215
Engineering
Rajib Shuvrah Datta
Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and
Student ID: 1702252
Technology University.
Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University
Dinajpur, Bangladesh

Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering

This is to certify that the thesis entitled “Optimal Sizing and Techno-Economic Analysis
of Stand-alone Hybrid Energy System for Kutubdia Island Bangladesh” has been
carried out by Md. Imran Hossain, ID: 1702208, K.M. Iftekharul Alam, ID: 1702215 and
Rajib Shuvrah Datta, ID: 1702252 and complies with the regulations of this university and
meets the accepted standards with respect to originality and quality.

Signed by the final examining committee:

……………………………………………………………………
Chairman

……………………………………………………………………
External

……………………………………………………………………
Internal

……………………………………………………………………
Supervisor

…………………………………………………………………
Co-Supervisor

i
Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University
Dinajpur, Bangladesh

Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Certificate

This is to certify that the thesis work entitled “Optimal Sizing and Techno-Economic
Analysis of Stand-alone Hybrid Energy System for KUTUBDIA Island, Bangladesh”
carried out by the Student ID: 1702208, Student ID: 1702215, Student ID: 1702252,
under our supervisor as a requirement for the award of Bachelor of Science in Electrical
and Electronic Engineering.

Signature of Co-Supervisor Signature of Supervisor

………………………………………….. …………………………………………..
Rony Tota Md. Mizanur Rahman
Assistant Professor Assistant Professor
Department of Electrical and Department of Electrical and
Electronic Engineering Electronic Engineering
HSTU, Dinajpur-5200. HSTU, Dinajpur-5200.

i
 DEDICATED TO
OUR BELOVED PARENTS AND RESPECTABLE
TEACHERS

ii
 Acknowledgements

Firstly, we are grateful to the God for the good health and wellbeing that were necessary
to complete this thesis. Then we are honored to express our deepest and sincerest gratitude
to our parents who supported us all the time and helped us all the way they could to
continue our work.

Foremost I would like to express my sincere gratitude to our respected Supervisor Md.
Mizanur Rahman, Assistant Professor, Department of Electrical and Electronic
Engineering and Co-Supervisor, Rony Tota, Assistant Professor, Department of Electrical
and Electronic Engineering, for their continuous support during our thesis work. Their
patience, motivation, enthusiasm and immense knowledge have helped us to make our
work successful and so we are extremely grateful to them. Anytime when we had
difficulties in our research, they were always there to help with their intelligence,
diligence and patience.

Finally, we also thank our group members and friends for their dedication and hard work
to complete the thesis.

iii
 ABSTRACT
This research examines the technological and financial viability of developing hybrid
energy systems for use in remote areas without grid access, such as Kutubdia Island in
Bangladesh. This study examines the feasibility of electrifying Kutubdia Island using
several hybrid setups. To meet the peak load demand, the program HOMER Pro calculates
the ideal size of the available resources and analyzes the technological and economic
factors involved in meeting that demand. By optimizing the performance of many energy
sources, HOMER can evaluate and compare a wide range of hybrid energy system
designs. With the use of the Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and the net present cost
(NPC), the optimal system size may be created (LCOE). The results of this study point to
solar photovoltaic (PV) as the primary energy source, battery as the storage medium, and
diesel generator as the backup energy source because of the declining availability and
increasing expense of wind energy. When comparing LCOE, PV/Wind/Battery/DG (0.146
USD/kWh) is much less expensive than Wind/Battery/DG (0.152 USD/kWh),
PV/Battery/DG (0.293 USD/kWh), PV/Wind/Battery (0.197 USD/kWh), and DG-Based
(0.380 USD/kWh).

iv
 Contents

Chapter Tittle Pages

Certificate i

Acknowledgements iii
Abstract iv
Contents v
List of Figures vii
List of Tables viii
List of Abbreviation ix
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 An overview of Bangladesh Power Generation 2
Industry
1.3 Objectives 3
2 Literature Review 5
2.1 Literature Review 5
2.2 Prior Research on the Techno-Economic 7
Discussion on Different Hybrid Systems of
Energy
3 Methodology 9
3.1 Our Proposed System Description 9
3.2 Homer 10
3.3 Site of Location 11
3.4 Load of case study 12
3.5 Daily Load Profile 13
3.6 Hardware Components for Power Generation and 13
Storage
3.6.1 PV modeling 13
3.6.2 Wind Turbine Modeling 15
3.6.3 Modeling of Diesel Generator 17
3.6.4 Battery Modeling 20

v
3.6.5 Bi-Directional Converter 20
4 Design analysis of proposed system 22
4.1 Case I: (Only DG Based) 22
4.2 Case II: (PV/Wind/Battery) 22
4.3 Case III: (PV/DG/Battery) 23
4.4 Case IV: (WIND/DG/Battery) 23
4.5 Case V: (PV/WIND/DG/Battery) 24
5 Result and Analysis 25
5.1 Simulation Result of Individual Combination 25
Types of Equipment
5.1.1 Result of Case I: (Only DG-Based) 26
5.1.2 Result of Case II: (PV/Wind/Battery) 27
5.1.3 Result of Case III: (PV/DG/Battery) 28
5.1.4 Result of Case IV: (Wind/DG/Battery) 29
5.1.5 Result of Case V: (PV/Wind/DG/Battery) 30
5.2 Emission Analysis 31
5.3 Sensitivity Analysis 32
5.3.1 The effects of rising Diesel Price 32
5.3.2 The effects of Wind Speed 33
5.3.3 The effects of Solar Radiation 33
5.4 Proposed Optimized system vs Present Energy 34
System
6 Conclusion 35
6.1 Conclusion 35
6.2 Future Recommendation 35
References 36

vi
 List of Figures
Chapter Figure Name Page
1.1 Rate of installed capacity of electricity produced from different 3
sources of energy
3.1 Proposed power system model 9
3.2 Interface of Homer Software 11
3.3 Proposed Site Location 11
3.4 Daily Load Profile 13
3.5 Solar radiation data in a year 13
3.6 Selected PV Panel 14
3.7 Research methodology of the proposed hybrid renewable energy 15
system
3.8 Wind Turbine Design 16
3.9 Monthly Average Wind Speed Data 17
3.10 Diesel Generator Design 18
3.11 Fuel Curve of selected Diesel Generator 19
3.12 Efficiency curve of selected Diesel Generator 20
3.13 Design Battery 19
3.14 Bi-Directional Converter Design 21
4.1 Diesel Generator with connected load 22
4.2 PV/Wind/Battery with connected load 22
4.3 PV/DG/Battery with connected load 23
4.4 WIND/DG/Battery with connected load 23
4.5 PV/WIND/DG/Battery with connected load 24
5.1 DG-based electricity production throughout the year 26
5.2 PV/Wind/Battery-based electricity production throughout the year 27
5.3 PV/Battery/DG-based electricity production throughout the year 28
5.4 Wind/Battery/DG-based electricity production throughout the year 29
5.5 PV/Wind/Battery/DG-based electricity production throughout the 30
year
5.6 Variation of Diesel Price 33

vii
 List of Table
Chapter Table Name Page
1.1 Maximum electricity production chart 4

2.1 Summary of different hybrid energy system 8

3.1 Estimated electricity demand for Kutubdia Island 12

3.3 Cost of Installed Components 21

5.1 Simulation result of various cases 25

5.2 Augmented Electrical Result for DG 26

5.3 Augmented Electrical Result for PV/Wind/Battery 27

5.4 Augmented Electrical Result for PV/Battery/DG 28

5.5 Augmented Electrical Result for Wind/Battery/DG 29

5.6 Augmented Electrical Result for PV/Wind/Battery/DG 31

5.7 Comparison of emission analysis 31

5.8 Variation of Diesel Fuel Price 32

5.9 Variation of Wind Speed 33

5.10 Variation of Solar Radiation 34

viii
 List of Abbreviation

BD Discharge of battery
DF Factor of derating (%)
EE energy (kW/y)
F1 Coefficient of intercept
F2 Fuel curve slope
G Solar irradiations (kW/m2
GEC Charges of energy (kWh)
GS Standard solar irradiation (kW/m2)
MinNPC Minimum value of NPC
NBiomass, G Number of biomass generators
NBattery Number of batteries
NDiesel, G Number of diesel generators
Ninverter Number of inverters
NPV Number of photovoltaic cells
NPC Net present cost (USD)
PD Outcome of the diesel operated generator at that
time
Prated Rated capacity of PV module (W)
HOMER Hybrid optimization model for electric
renewables
LCOE Levelized cost of energy (USD/kWh)
LHV Lower heating value (MJ/kg)
MinLCOE Minimum value of LCOE
RD Rated diesel generator capacity
TC Temperature of the PV cell (◦C)
TS Standard PV cell temperature (◦C)
αP Coefficient of the solar power
ηPV Efficiency of the PV cell (%)

ix
 CHAPTER-01
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Introduction
Population and economic growth have been driving up energy needs in Bangladesh over
the last decade. Hilly regions, like the rest of the country, rely heavily on power, which is
why grid expansion is so important [1, 2]. Economic growth, and particularly growth in
developing nations, is often credited to increased energy production and access. It may
also be utilized to increase national output [3]. Therefore, electricity is vital for enabling
long-term growth. Roughly 1.06 billion people, or roughly 14 percent of the global
population, do not have access to electricity. About 41 million people in Bangladesh have
no access to electrical power [4].

Figure 1 shows Bangladesh's electrification rate (in percentage) and suggests that more
and more individuals in the country are gaining access to electricity; however, this growth
is still behind the pace of population rise. The increased worldwide demand for power is
met mostly through the usage of traditional energy sources like natural gas, oil, and coal.
As a result of limited reserves and high use, however, they are decreasing sources.

Additionally, pollution from all these energy sources degrades the natural ecosystem.
Because of this, cutting CO2 emissions by 50–80% by 2050 is an absolute need [5].
Lessening our use of fossil fuels and increasing our use of renewable energy sources are
two ways to cut down on emissions [6-8]. Since traditional power generation accounts for
a large portion of both electricity consumption and pollution, it is crucial to identify
renewable energy sources. Renewable and optimum energy sources might be promoted to
meet the increasing load demand in Bangladesh and elsewhere [9,10].

The same is true with energy, which is in high demand worldwide to keep the global
economy and progress going [12,13]. Because of the electrical shortage, businesses all
around the world are struggling. Because of this, developing nations often experience grid
outages lasting longer than 8 hours [3]. Furthermore, emerging nations have issues with
power consumption for millions of people without electricity, as well as difficulty
preserving a clean environment with economically viable sources of energy [14,15]. The

1
GDP of both wealthy and developing nations suffers when there is an extended period of
electrical outage [16].
Although Bangladesh's per capita electricity consumption is still lower (560 kWh) as
compared to the per capita consumption of the globe (3127 kWh) [1], the power industry
has been greatly improved, covering energy demand via a 90% grid supply. The use of
renewable energy sources and the development of related technologies remain,
nevertheless, uncommon in Bangladesh. Existing infrastructure cannot keep up with the
rising nationwide demand for power. Due to their reliance on external variables and the
unpredictability of their availability, renewable energy sources that operate independently
from the grid cannot guarantee a constant supply of power [17, 18]. Accordingly, hybrid
energy systems are being looked at as potential alternatives to this situation. Batteries or
internal combustion engines powered by gasoline may be used in conjunction with solar
photovoltaics (PV) to create a workable and affordable system, according to the literature
[19, 20]. Though hybrid PV/wind/diesel/battery configurations have been used in other
countries, they are uncommon in studies of Bangladesh's off-grid settlements. Through a
system design approach that considers existing energy resources, this study lays forth a
plan for bringing electricity to rural areas of Bangladesh. Specifically, this work
demonstrates the rarity of past studies emphasizing hybrid energy systems that use
biomass. This research also discusses the appropriate size of hybrid energy systems to
provide uninterrupted power to the region under consideration, such as the island of
Kutubdia in Bangladesh. This research looks at the best possible practicality of five
different off-grid systems for the proposed location.

1.2 Objectives

The major goal of this paper is to optimize the sizing of a hybrid renewable energy system
to supply continuous energy to the considered area of Kutubdia Island in Bangladesh
through technical and economic analysis. The following actions were taken to accomplish
this goal

• The power system is played through in all possible configurations, taking into
account renewable energy sources and determining the best possible optimal
system.

2
 • The proposed optimal system is compared with the current energy situation in
selected area. For the optimal system, sensitivity analysis and payback are also
considered in sensitivity analysis, the effectiveness of wind speed and diesel price
variation is discussed.

1.3 An Overview of Bangladesh's Power Generation Industry

The greatest quantity of power output in Bangladesh has been roughly 12,893 MW, and
when including renewable energy sources, it has been around 22,787 MW. However, the
demand for electricity is rising rapidly. About 19,630 MW of grid power was expected to
be installed in 2020, up from about 18,961 MW in 2018-2019.

An additional 1160 MW of electrical generation capacity is needed from outside to fulfill

current demand [21]. Figure 1.1 shows the current rate of power generation in Bangladesh
from various installed energy sources.

Figure 1.1: Rate of installed capacity of electricity produced from different sources of
energy [21]

The available energy sources are the only determinant in a country's strategy for the
generation of electricity. Multiple power stations in Bangladesh use a variety of energy
sources, including coal, gas, and nuclear power, to produce electricity. There will be
24,000 MW of electricity production by 2021's end, 40,000 MW by 2030's, and 60,000
MW by 2041's end [21]. Electricity consumption, on the other hand, is expected to rise

3
from 2020's predicted 14,000 MW to 2021's 19,000 MW, 2030's 33,000 MW, and 2041's
52,000 MW. It is anticipated that annual electricity output would rise from 510 kWh in
2020 to 700 kWh in 2021, 815 kWh in 2030, and 1475 kWh in 2041 [21].

Maximum output from 2000 – 2022 are shown in Table 1.1.

Table 1.1: Maximum electricity production chart

Year Maximum Production (MW)

2000-2001 3033
2005-2006 3783
2010-2011 4890
2015-2016 9036
2016-2017 9479
2017-2018 10958
2018-2019 12893
2019-2020 12738
2020-2021 13792
2021-2022 13525

4
 Chapter 2
Literature Review

2.1 Literature Review:

Several new research on the hybrid power system are reviewed in this part to help fill in
some of the gaps in our knowledge. Using PLEXOS, researchers in [15] were able to
integrate 78.1% of the island's entire energy needs at a cost of just 2.5% of the total,
thanks to the usage of renewable energy sources. However, required risk and sensitivity
analyses were not conducted to guarantee the planned energy system would work as
intended. For both economic and ecological reasons, a smart energy system was developed
with the combined storage (battery and hydrogen) technology, as detailed in ref. [16].
However, they did not explain how the technique they proposed might be implemented.
Micro turbine efficiency and overall economic feasibility of a combined heat and power
(CHP) and photovoltaic (PV) micro grid were studied in. There were other subtle effects,
such sun irradiation, that were disregarded. The only things we thought about were how
the fluctuating load and fuel costs would affect us. [17]

Optimizing the PV/Wind/Battery/Diesel hybrid model to provide electrical energy needs

while minimizing carbon dioxide emissions is the focus of [18]. There is no indication of
sensitivity or risk analysis in their suggested system. The research presented in [19] set out
to measure the optimal dimensions of a hybrid energy storage system made up of a
hydrogen fuel cell and a super-capacitor for a commercial load powered by solar panels.
The influence of hydrogen costs on the system and cost of energy is analyzed using a
sensitivity analysis performed in HOMER Pro under Cape Town's weather conditions
(COE). To put it another way, even if the cost of a hybrid backup system were to drop
over time, it would still be too costly to use for a commercial load. The cost and carbon
pollution of a PV, WG, BESS, and DG hybrid energy system on Aguni Island, Japan are
minimized using a multi-objective optimization approach in [20]. Using the e-constraint
method and MILP, the aforementioned flaw is corrected in the output of ADLC. The
technique presented here does not take into consideration the fact that actual load demands
might fluctuate in real time.

5
The annual cost of a hybrid micro grid for an island that uses solar panels, wind turbines,
tidal current, batteries, and diesel is estimated in [21], using an improved multi-objective
grey wolf optimization technique, in order to keep the system's annual cost as low as
possible and avoid the risk of a power distribution deficit. This research cannot fully
represent the right COE since it only considers the startup and running expenses of the
installed equipment. In [22], a Genetic Algorithm (GA) is used to optimize a hybrid
system composed of solar, wind, batteries, and diesel in order to supply the power
demands of a tiny hamlet in northern Nigeria at the lowest cost and even with the least
environmental effect. Reducing the NPC, COE, unmet load, and CO2 emissions of an off-
grid HRES using a GA and the HOMER Pro software is shown in [23]. In [24], a Firefly
algorithm is used to calculate the optimal size of a solar-wind-battery storage hybrid
energy system for delivering cheap, reliable power to remote Indian villages. This
approach uses just one day of summer and winter data, which is inadequate for simulating
the whole year.

In [25], the off-grid HRES that powers the Kutupalong camp in Ukhia, Cox's Bazar,
Bangladesh is designed with the use of the HOMER Pro software in order to reduce the
system's NPC, COE, and CO2 emissions. Their proposed system does not seem to include
any kind of sensitivity analysis. The proposed method would aid in improving energy
efficiency and encouraging the growth of renewable energy sources in Ukraine, as stated
in [26]. There is no visual indication of which permutation is the most efficient or eco-
friendly in this setup. Hybrid photovoltaic (PV), diesel, small hydro, and battery systems
were designed for use in off-grid areas of southern Cameroon (ref. [27]). The findings
demonstrate that the proposed method improves upon the status quo with respect to NPC
while simultaneously decreasing energy expenditures and carbon dioxide emissions. Their
proposed system shows no indication of sensitivity analysis. To ensure the government's
strategy is successful, the existing condition, future prospects, and up-to-date statistics on
renewable and sustainable energy sources in Bangladesh are presented in Ref. [28].

In [29], it was investigated whether the energy needs of autonomous desalination systems
(ADS) generating up to 50 m3 of water per day in a location with moderately high wind
and solar radiation profiles could be met by hybrid renewable energy systems (PV-wind-
generator). When compared with more traditional fossil fuels, these renewable energy

6
sources are prohibitively expensive. Construction strategies for renewable energy-based
hybrid power plants in the megawatt range are discussed in [30], with the emphasis being
placed on identifying the most cost-effective and technologically possible options.
Although a grid-connected system is proposed, a return-on-investment estimate is not
provided. Reducing building energy consumption and satisfying load demand at the lowest
possible cost are the goals of the demand-supply management (DSM) approach and
particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based technique combined in ref. [31]. In contrast,
with DSM, the share of renewable energy jumps from 15% to 63%. Despite the high cost
and huge distances necessary to deliver fuel, making it less economical and sustainable in
rural locations, Ref. [32] focused on HRESs that carry diesel as a backup. Objective of
[33] is to design and envision an ideal micro solar-diesel hybrid power producing plant for
use in a rural area of Bangladesh to consistently meet the country's electrical energy
demands. There is no mention of sensitivity analysis in the proposed framework. In the
proposed framework, sensitivity analysis is not addressed. PV, micro hydro, wind turbine,
and biomass generators compare the price of HRES to that of a stand-alone diesel
generator in [34]. The suggested system does not discuss sensitivity analysis. As stated in
ref. [35], HRES is now feasible because of the dramatic drop in the cost of wind turbines
and solar panels in recent years. The ideal system is determined by three primary factors:
the intensity of renewable resources; the ratio of thermal to electrical demand; and the cost
of diesel fuel. Environmental effect or sensitivity analyses are not mentioned in this
system. The unreliability of renewable energy sources makes the HRES scaling process
more challenging. As a result, it's important to strike a balance between cost and
reliability. This has led to the development of a number of models (algorithms) and
software tools for optimizing HRES designs, with more on the way [36-38]. Analytical
hierarchy method (AHP) [39] was used to rank the importance of criteria to be used to
create the best hybrid power systems.

2.2 Prior Research on the Techno-Economic Discussion on Different Hybrid

Systems of Energy:

In this work, several different scientific articles have been reviewed to analyses the
feasibility of the economic aspects of standalone off-grid systems for hybrid energy. In
different configurations of hybrid energy, PV, wind, hydro, and biomass are commonly
used sources of energy based on their availability in the specified regions. In the majority

7
 of hybrid energy systems, diesel generators and batteries are used as backup sources of
energy and energy storage systems, respectively. Moreover, the converter is used for the
the conversion from DC to AC or vice versa.

Table 2.1: Summary of different hybrid configuration of hybrid energy system

Configurations Grid and Off Criteria of Methodology Locations

Grid Evaluation
Architecture

PV/diesel/converter/ Off-grid LCOE, renewable HOMER Thailand (Koh Jik

battery fraction Island)

PV/diesel/converter/ Off-grid Emissions (CO2) HOMER Africa (Benin

battery village)

PV/diesel/converter/ Off-grid LCOE, NPC, HOMER Bangladesh

battery renewable (Godagari, remote
fraction, excess areas)
energy

Wind/diesel/converte Off-grid LCOE, NPC HOMER China (Gansu,

r/ industrial)

battery

PV/wind/diesel/ Off-grid LCOE, NPC HOMER Saudi Arabia

converter/battery (Jubail,
residential)
PV/diesel/converter/ Off-grid LCOE, emissions HOMER Turkey (Kilis,
battery (CO2) residential)

PV/wind/diesel/ Off-grid LCOE Homer South Korea (city

converter/battery load)

PV/wind/diesel/co Off-grid LCOE Homer Columbia (remote

nverter/battery village)

8
 Chapter 3
Methodology
3.1 Our Proposed System Description
This research identifies the most effective hybrid energy system layout for meeting the
load requirements of a certain off-grid community. Figure 1 depicts the suggested model
for the electrical grid. The HOMER Pro program was used to run a simulation, and the
costs were determined by balancing the many aspects of the hybrid energy system against
the constraints of the system at the time, as well as the weather and energy demands of the
building under study. The NPC and COE were determined with the aid of this program.
This cost estimate formed the basis for the comparative study of the best system. Utilizing
the optimization and sensitivity analysis features of the HOMER Pro software, the
practicality and feasibility of various hybrid energy system designs, especially those used
in off-grid settings, may be evaluated.

Figure 3.1: Proposed power system model

9
3.2 HOMER

The workflow of the HOMER is shown in Figure 2. Hybrid renewable energy architecture
includes three main stages: before HOMER analysis, during HOMER optimization, and
after HOMER analysis.

The pre-HOMER assessment checks the design configuration and framework early on to
make sure it can support the infrastructure over the long run. It is difficult to develop and
execute a successful hybrid system to manage the required load requirements without
comprehensive documentation of the specified family, community, and energy needs. So,
the first step is to evaluate the demographics, energy sources, and load requirements of the
off-grid area of interest. With the help of this method, you'll be able to zero in on the
specific load requirement at your site and identify the energy sources that can meet it.

The pre-HOMER section assesses the total cost of ownership (TCO) of a hardware
system, including the purchase price, ongoing operating expenses, and eventual cost of
replacement.

Efficiency Gains In this section, we use HOMER to do the techno-economic analysis

based on load demand and weather forecasts. This study considers the local renewable
energy sources, hybrid energy system components, and the results of the HOMER
modeling exercise in their entirety. To do an optimal and sizing study of a hybrid setup for
renewable energy, several methods may be employed. Even yet, HOMER's rising star is
attributable to its reliability in constructing grid systems that include renewable energy
sources.

After HOMER analysis is complete, a sensitivity assessment of the planned off-grid area
is required to validate the results. Many factors, including photovoltaics, batteries, fuel,
and temperatures, were subjected to a sensitivity analysis. These details might help you get
a good feel for what goes into choosing an off-grid community's energy infrastructure.

The simulation's result is duplicated and fine-tuned using the relevant sensitivity factors.
The effect on the natural world is also considered in this section. Investors will know how
long they may expect to reap the benefits of their effort.

10
 Figure 3.2: Interface of Homer Software

3.3 Site Location

Figure 3.3: Proposed Site Location

The island of Kutubdia is situated in the Chittagong division, some 90 kilometers

southwest of Cox's Bazar. It is situated at a latitude of 21.4738 and a longitude of 91.1914
east. Estimated 133,888 individuals call this 215.8 square kilometer area home. There are
just 32.4% of the population.

11
3.4 Assumed Load

This study considered a city with 100 residents, 18 retail establishments, 10 food Service
establishments, and 3 lodging establishments. Table 3.1 displays the anticipated seasonal
load requirements during the summer and winter. The daily peak demand was predicted to
be 70.98 kW, while the primary load was expected tobe752 kWh/day.
Table 3.1: Estimated electricity demand for Kutubdia Island
Type Description No. Power Summer Winter
of in (W)
Load Use Hour Watt- Hours/ Watt-Hours/Day
s/ Hours/Da Day
Day y
CFL 2 15 6 180 8 240
Fan 1 80 14 1120 0 0
House TV 1 120 8 960 7 840
Fridge 1 240 24 6000 24 6000
Total (For 455 8260 7080
one house) 100 46,500 826000 708,000
Total
(Houses)

CFL 2 15 5 150 7 210

Shop Fan 1 80 7 560 0 0
Total (For 95 710 210
one shop) 18 1710 12780 3780
Total (Shop)
CFL 18 15 8 2160 9 2430
Fan 9 80 10 7200 0 0
Restau TV 1 120 8 960 7 840
rant Fridge 1 250 24 6000 24 6000
Total (For 465 16,320 9270
one 10 4650 163,200 92,700
restaurant)
Total
(Restaurant)

CFL 60 15 7 6300 8 7200

Fan 30 80 10 24000 0 0
TV 22 120 5 13200 6 15,840
Hotel Fridge 2 250 24 12000 24 12,000
Water pump 1 1500 2 3000 2 3000
Total (For 1965 58,500 38.400
one hotel) 3 5895 175,500 114,120
Total (Hotel)

Total 58,755 1,177480 918600

Load

12
3.5 Daily Load Profile:

Figure 3.4: Daily Load Profile

3.6 Hardware Components for Power Generation and Storage

3.6.1 PV Modeling
The clearness index utilizes latitude and longitude data to plot monthly average global
radiation statistics derived from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).

Figure 3.5: Solar radiation data in a year

13
As shown in Figure 3.5, solar radiation is at its peak during the months of February
through May. An annual clearness index of 0.5312 is achieved, with daily radiation
averaging 4.81 kWh/m2/day.

Figure 3.6: Selected PV Panel

PV power production is very susceptible to climate change. The PV panel's module comes
from Generic, which also makes the panel itself. There has a 1 kW rating (kW). It was
calculated by raising the temperature coefficient by 0.1% for every degree Celsius.
Increasing the efficiency of the PV panel might increase its annual output. The hourly base
output of the photovoltaic system may be calculated using equation (3.1) [25].

…………… (3.1)

Where YPV denotes the rated capacity of PV array, fPV is known as derating factor (80%),
IT is incident solar irradiation in kW/m2, IS is standard solar irradiation in kW/m2, αP is
coefficient of the solar power, TC is the temperature of the PV cell in °C, and TS is the
standard PV cell temperature. The temperature of the PV cell can be obtained using
Equation (3.2) [25].

…………………. (3.2)

14
Where Ta is defined as temperature (°C), ηPV is the efficiency of the PV cell, and NOCT is
nominal operating cell temperature.

Pre-
Homer
Analysis

Figure 3.7: Research methodology of the proposed hybrid renewable energy system

3.6.2 Wind Turbine Modeling

The wind data shown in Figure 5 was given by the NREL and was used in this study. The
module for the wind turbine was manufactured by Eocycle and is now under review
(Model: EO10). The turbine's hub height is 25 meters, and it has a design life of 20 years.
There was no way to harness the influence of nature. Turbines capture the wind's kinetic
energy and convert it to electricity. There are a number of factors to consider when
choosing a wind turbine, including hub height, cut-in wind speed, expected service life,
and total cost. Since available power is a function of wind speed at the generator's hub
height, the output of various types of wind generators varies widely. For a particular hub
height, the required

15
wind speed for energy production may be calculated using the power law equation. The
price is determined on the kind of land [25]. The turbine has a 25 m tall

……………… (3.3)

Figure 3.8: Wind Turbine Design

Figure 3.9: Monthly Average Wind Speed Data

16
3.6.3 Modeling of Diesel Generator
Diesel (price) is needed for any power system proposal or modeling. The Bangladesh
Petroleum Corporation (BPC) reports that the unofficial diesel price in Bangladesh is now
USD 1 per liter (L) [40].

There has been a great deal of price fluctuation throughout the years with this. Since
diesel fuel price is closely linked to NPC and COE for the generation of electricity per
unit, the timing of any diesel-based micro grid project might be accelerated, postponed, or
even cancelled [1]. It is possible to figure out how much diesel fuel you use using this
equation: (3.5).

FC = F1RD + F2PD …………………………. (3.5)

Where F1 is defined as the coefficient of intercept, F2 is defined as fuel curve slope, RD is

the rated DG capacity, and PD is the outcome of the diesel-operated generator at that
time.

Figure 3.10: Diesel Generator Design

17
The fuel curve of selected Diesel Generator:

Figure 3.11: Fuel Curve of selected Diesel Generator

18
The efficiency curve of selected Diesel Generator:

Figure 3.12: Efficiency curve of selected Diesel Generator

19
3.6.4 Battery Modeling
The storage component of a hybrid energy system is major equipment that is utilized
to maintain a consistent voltage during periods of lower power generation. In most cases,
a Li-ion battery is used for power storage [1].

Figure 3.13: Battery Design

3.6.5 Bi-Directional Converter

A bi-directional converter adds both AC and DC buses. Equation [11] can be used to
calculate the converter’s energy output, where Ein represents the power input to the
specified inverter and ηinv indicates the inverter’s efficiency. The capacity of the inverter is
determined by the transfer of energy from DC to AC using the HOMER Pro software.

………………………. (3.7)

20
 Figure 3.14: Bi-Directional Converter Design

Table 3.3 lists the many inputs considered while modelling a PV, Wind Turbine, DG,
Battery, and Bi-directional Converter.

Table 3.3: Cost of Installed Components

Components Description Capital Cost Replacement Operation and Lifetime

Cost Maintenance
Cost
PV 1 kW 1100 750 USD/kW 50 USD/kW/y 25 y
USD/kW
DG 80 kW 370 290 USD/kW 0.05 USD/h 15,000 h
USD/kW
Wind turbine 10 kW 3200 2000 20 USD/kW/y 20 y
USD/kW USD/kW
Li-ion 1 kWh 550 USD 550 USD 10 USD 15 y
Battery
Bi- 1 kW 300 USD 300 USD 0 15 y
directional
converter

21
 Chapter 4
Design Analysis of Proposed System

Here we have been discussed about 6 cases with different components.

4.1 Case I : (Only DG Based)

In this case only Diesel Generator has been used. The schematic diagram of this case is
shown below.

Figure 4.1: Diesel Generator with connected load

4.2 Case II: (PV/Wind/Battery)

In this case PV panel, Wind turbine, and for storage battery has been used. The schematic
diagram of this case is shown below.

Figure 4.2: PV/Wind/Battery with connected load

22
4.3 Case III :( PV/DG/Battery)
In this case PV panel, Diesel Generator, and for storage Battery has been used. The
schematic diagram of this case is shown below.

Figure 4.3: PV/DG/Battery with connected load

4.4 Case IV: (WIND/DG/Battery)

In this case Wind Turbine, Diesel Generator, and for storage Battery has been used. The
schematic diagram of this case is shown below.

Figure 4.4: WIND/DG/Battery with connected load

23
4.5 Case V: (PV/WIND/DG/Battery)
In this case PV panel, Wind Turbine, Diesel Generator, and for storage Battery has been
used. The schematic diagram of this case is shown below.

Figure 4.5: PV/WIND/DG/Battery with connected load

24
 Chapter 5
Results and Analysis

HOMER Pro is used to model various hybrid energy systems. For techno-economic
analyses and feasibility studies, NPC and COE are utilized in this study to determine
several optimal configurations.

5.1 Simulation Result of Individual Combination Types of Equipment

The simulation results of the considered cases are shown in the Table 5.1
Parameters Case I Case II Case III Case IV Case V

NPC (USD) 1.88M 1.54M 1.2M 1.17M 1.08M

Initial Capital (USD) 29,500 710750 186425 98,750 1,34,500

Operating Cost 1,02,743 30,391 74,253 39,257 34,607

(USD/y)

COE (USD) 0.38 0.206 0.295 0.156 0.144

Simple Payback (y) 0 12 6 3.3 3.9

PV Capacity (kW) - 175 105 - 35

WT Capacity (kW) - 8 - 5 5

No. of Battery - 855 51 75 70

Inverter Capacity - 66.7 44.6 40 40

(kW)

DG Capacity (kW) 80 - 80 80 80

Fuel Costs (USD) 89652 - 58,203 31,423 25,602

Fuel Consumption 82,250 - 53,397 28,828 23,488

(L/year)

Diesel Engine 8760 - 5194 2663 2048

Operating Hour

Table 5.1: Simulation result of various cases

25
5.1.1. Result of Case I: (Only DG-Based)
This is the base case. In this case, NPC and COE are higher than in other cases that are
considered in this system. In Table 5.2 shows that, the annual operating cost is USD
1,02,743and the NPC is USD 1,078,186 for the only DG-based system. The COE is USD
0.38/kilowatt-h (kWh). Table 5.2 shows the details of the augmented electrical result.
Figure 4.1 shows the production of electricity throughout the year in this system.

Table 5.2: Augmented Electrical Result for PV/Wind/Battery

Electrical Elements kWh/y %

Production DG (80kW) 275437 100
Total 275437
Consumption AC load 274,480 100
Total 274,480
Excess Electricity 957 0.347
Quantity Unmet Electric load 0 0

Capacity Shortage 0 0

Electricity Production of Case I:

Figure 5.1: DG-based electricity production throughout the year

26
5.1.2. Result of Case II: PV/Wind/Battery
This is the worst case. The NPC and COE are the highest of all the combinations. From
Table 5.3 we see that NPC of this combination is USD 1,374,082 operating cost is USD
30,391 and the COE is USD 0.206/kWh, which is lower than case 1. The simple payback
of this system is 12 years. Table 5.3 shows the details of the augmented electrical result.
According to this table, the wind turbine generates 61.2% of the electricity for this
specific system. In this system, the excess electricity, unmet electric load, and capacity
shortage are 394,837 68.2, and 255 kWh/y, respectively. Figure 5.2 shows the production
of electricity throughout the year in this system. In the months of May to September, wind
speeds are higher than in any other month of the year.

Electrical Elements kWh/y %

PV 264,605 38.8
Production Wind Turbine 416,577 61.2
Total 680,643 100
Consumption AC load 274,412 100
Total 274,588
Excess Electricity 394,837 58
Quantity Unmet Electric load 68.2 0.0248
Capacity Shortage 255 0.0927
Table 5.3: Augmented Electrical Result for PV/WIND/BATTERY

Electricity Production of Case II:

27
 Figure 5.2: PV/Wind/Battery-based electricity production throughout the year

5.1.3. Result of Case III: PV/Battery/DG

In Table 5.4 we see that, NPC and operating cost of PV/Battery/DG based system is USD
1,022,105 and USD 74,253 respectively. The COE is USD 0.295/kWh, which is lower
than in cases 1 and 2. We also see that the excess electricity generated by this system is
57,741 kWh/y, which is 17% of the total produced electricity. The simple payback is 6
years of this combination. The DG provides 54.2% of the power for this particular system,
according to Table 5.4. Figure 5.3 shows the production of electricity throughout the year
in this system. PV electricity generation is quite low from March to October. DG’s
contribution in this particular system is less than in case I; that’s why CO2 emissions
decrease to 34.32% which is less than in case 1.

Table 5.4: Augmented Electrical Result for PV/Battery/DG

Electrical Elements kWh/y %

PV 158,763 45.8
Production
Dg 181,648 54.2
Total 340,411 100
Consumption AC load 274,480 100
Total 274,480
Excess Electricity 57,454 17
Quantity Unmet Electric 0 0
load
Capacity 0 0
Shortage
Electricity Production of Case III:

Figure 5.3: PV/Battery/DG-based electricity production throughout the year

28
5.1.4 Result of Case IV: Wind/Battery/DG
According to Table 4.5, the NPC, yearly operating cost and initial capital for this specific
system are USD 1,00,6857, USD 39,257 and USD 98,750 respectively. The COE is USD
0.156/kWh, which is less than in cases 1, 2 and 3. The simple payback of this hybrid
system is 3.3 years. Although simple payback is lower than other cases, it’s not the best
case. Because in HOMER optimization, results depend on the NPC and COE. Most of the
electricity, 2,60,361 kWh/y, is produced by wind turbines, which is 72.5% of total
electricity, according to Table 4.5. The production of excess electricity is 22 % of total
production. There is no unmet electric load and capacity shortage. In Figure 4.4, we
observe wind turbines producing maximum electricity throughout the year. DG’s
participation is quite low.
Table 5.5: Augmented Electrical result for Wind/Battery/DG
Electrical Elements kWh/y %
Wind Turbine 260,361 72.5
Production
DG 98,879 27.5
Total 359,240 100
Consumption AC load 274,480 100
Total 274,480
Excess Electricity 79,133 22.0
Quantity Unmet Electric load 0 0
Capacity Shortage 0 0
Electricity Production of Case IV:

29
 Figure 5.4: Wind/Battery/DG-based electricity production throughout the year

5.1.5. Result of Case 5: PV/Wind/Battery/DG

The best approach to handling the ongoing electrical challenges in Bangladesh’s Kutubdia
Island was discovered to be a hybrid micro grid system based on PV, wind, battery and
DG. Two renewable energy resources (solar and wind) were examined in this scenario,
together with a battery bank, to lessen the strain from diesel generators and so lower the
power price to a tolerable level. The NPC, annual operating cost and initial capital cost for
this hybrid system are USD 1,078,186 USD 34,607 and USD 1,34,500 respectively,
according to Table 5.6. The COE is USD 0.144/kWh, which is lower than in all other
cases. The simple payback of this hybrid system is 3.9 years, which is longer than in case
4, but the NPC and COE are lower. According to Table 5.6, PV, wind turbine, and DG
produced electricity of 52,157, 260,631, and 81,230 kWh/y respectively, with the wind
turbine producing 66.1% of total electricity. Excess electricity is 112,789 kWh/y which is
28.6% of total electricity. In Figure 5.5 we see that the contribution of DG is reduced in
these cases. From June to September, PV’s production is very low. The power generation
from wind turbine is so high.

Table 5.6: Augmented Electrical Result for PV/Wind/Battery/DG

Electrical Elements kWh/y %

PV 52,157 13.2

Production Wind Turbine 260,631 66.1

DG 81,260 20.6

Total 393,778 100

Consumption AC load 274,480 100

Total 274,480

Excess Electricity 112,789 28.6

Quantity Unmet Electric load 0 0

Capacity Shortage 0 0

30
 Figure 5.5: PV/Wind/Battery/DG-based electricity production throughout the year

5.2 Emission Analysis

A hybrid renewable energy-based electrical system would undoubtedly be a significant
accomplishment that would help to alleviate global warming. Based on fuel usage and fuel
quality, yearly emissions are calculated from polluting materials and gas. Table 5.7
displays annual gas emission of different cases. According to this table, DG-based
systems emit 218,666 kg/y carbon dioxide (CO2) and 542 kg/y sulfur dioxide (SO2);
PV/Battery/DG emits 141,283 kg/y CO2 and 350 kg/y SO2; Wind/Battery/DG emits
76,276 kg/y CO2 and 189 kg/y SO2; and PV/Wind/Battery/DG emits 62,145 kg/y CO2 and
154 kg/y SO2. The optimized PV/Wind/Battery/DG system emitted fewer CO2 and SO2
than all other combinations except PV/Wind/Battery. The PV/Wind/Battery/DG system
emitted 71.57% less CO2 and 71.58% less SO2 than the base case DG system.

Table 5.7: Emission analysis for different cases

Emitting DG PV/Wind/ PV/Battery/ Wind/ PV/Wind/

Gas (kg/y) Battery DG Battery/ DG Battery/DG

31
 CO2 218,666 0 141,283 76,276 62,145

SO2 542 0 350 189 154

5.3 Sensitivity Analysis

Running a sensitivity study on the influence of many factors on the overall cost and
viability of a renewable energy-based micro grid system is highly suggested. The
sensitivity analysis is primarily carried out by looking at the impact of the following
parameters on the previously optimized results:
• Daily load demand, wind speed, solar energy (radiation), and diesel price.
• Several costs (capital, operating, replacement, and operation and maintenance)
inputs and cost multipliers.
• Grid extension cost.
• Annual interest rate.
• Maximum capacity shortage.
We picked three main factors to investigate the correlation between NPC and COE: fuel
price, wind speed, and solar radiation.
5.3.1. The Effects of a Rising Diesel Price
Diesel prices are not the same throughout the year. It depends on the international market.
Variation in diesel prices effects the project’s cost. Figure 12 shows the effect of the diesel
price. In Figure 11 shows that the NPC and COE are 1.08$M and 0.144$ when diesel
price, average solar radiation and average wind speed are USD 1.09, 4.81 kWh/m2/day
and 4.77 m/s, respectively. When diesel costs drop to USD 0.75 and USD 0.80, the NPC
falls to USD 8, 28,107 and USD 8, 59,029 respectively, and COE falls to USD 0.111 and
USD 0.15. Contrarily, the NPC increases from USD 1.08M to USD 1.16M and the COE
from USD 0.144 to USD 0.156 when the price of fuel rises from USD 1.09 to USD 1.20.

Table 5.8: Variation of Diesel Fuel Price

Diesel Price 1.09 0.8 0.75 1.20

($)

NPC($) 1,078,186 8,59,029 8,28,107 1,15,6149

COE($) 1.44 1.15 1.11 1.54

32
 The variation of diesel fuel price is shown as below:

Figure 5.6: Variation of diesel fuel price

5.3.2 The Effects of Wind Speed

The NPC and COE are also heavily influenced by wind speed. Figure X show that
increasing the wind speed from 4.77 m/s to 5.00 m/s decreases the NPC and COE. The
NPC and COE were 1,078,186 USD and USD 0.144 while the wind speed was 4.77 m/s,
and they decreased to USD 1,007,666 and USD 0.135 when the wind speed increased to
5.00 m/s. On the other hand, the NPC and COE are USD 1,170,949 and USD 0.15,
respectively, when the wind speed drops from 4.77 m/s to 4.50 m/s. NPC and COE
decrease as wind speed increases, and NPC and COE increase as wind speed decreases.

Table 5.9: Variation of Wind Speed

Wind Speed (m/s) 4.77 5 4.5

NPC ($) 1,078,186 1,007,666 1,170,949

COE ($) 0.144 0.135 0.15

33
5.3.3. The Effects of Solar Radiation
The hybrid alternative using PV, wind, battery, and direct-drive generators is graphically
illustrated in Figure 4.10 by changing the solar irradiation. It is obvious that the NPC and
COE are influenced by changes in solar radiation. For instance, the NPC and COE are
USD 1078186 and USD 0.144 at 4.81 kWh/m2/day solar radiation, but they rise to USD
1089369 and USD 0.146 at 4.50 kWh/m2/day solar radiation. However, the NPC and
COE are USD 1181988 and USD 0.200, respectively, when the solar radiation reaches
5.00 kWh/m2/day. NPC is lower, even if COE is the same as when solar radiation is 4.5
kWh/m2/day.

Table 5.10: Variation of Solar Radiation

Solar Irradiation 4.81 5 4.5

(Kwh/m2/day)

NPC ($) 1,078,186 1,070,512 1,089,369

COE ($) 0.144 0.143 0.146

5.4Proposed Optimized System vs. Present Energy System

The study subsequently investigated the optimal hybrid system with the present energy
system and compared the various scenarios characterized by the HOMER software tool
based on COE and NPC. Policymakers might choose a hybrid-based energy system with
the aid of this comparative study. In comparison to the price of the current energy system,
the COE of the ideal configuration that selected chose is USD 0.144/kWh dollars per
kWh. Mostly, diesel generators are used to produce electricity in the considered area.
However, only diesel-based systems are the costliest, as mentioned in Table 5.1. Now a
days, they are also using solar home systems. The cost of SHSs is approximately USD
0.72/kWh [44]. Therefore, compared to solar and diesel-powered systems, the suggested
system’s COE is more affordable.

34
 Chapter: 06
Conclusion
6.1 Conclusion
This research investigates the viability of a hybrid system for future energy generation on
Bangladesh's Kutubdia Island. Five scenarios are investigated, and a viable configuration
substantially reduced NPC and emissions is proposed. The case at hand is PV/Wind/
Battery/DG. This system is made up of such a 35 kW PV panel, a 50-kW wind turbine, an
80 kW DG, and 70 Li-ion batteries, according to HOMER. The NPC is USD 1,078,186
with a 70.4% renewable rate. The proportion of renewable energy is higher than the
PV/wind/battery system. In the suggested system, DG generates 20.4% of the power, while
wind turbines generate 66.1%, PV panel generate 13.2%, respectively. Carbon dioxide
emissions are 62,145 kg/y, which is fewer than in all other scenarios except
PV/Wind/Battery. The payback period is 3.9 years in the proposed system. In sensitivity
analysis, it shows how the NPC and COE vary depending on diesel price and wind speed.

This study discusses the design and selection of the optimal system configuration for
achieving high efficiency and techno-economic feasibility utilizing locally accessible
renewable energy resources. The research takes into account a tiny community, thus more
research is necessary to determine the size of HRES in light of widespread energy
consumption. The outcomes displayed in the research region might not apply to all of
Bangladesh. In future research, we should analyze the embodied carbon emissions of wind
turbines.

6.2 Future Recommendation

This paper develops optimal models for different hybrid sources of energy for off-grid
communities in developing countries, such as Bangladesh. The models have been
developed using HOMER Pro software. However, the multi-objective algorithms can also
be applied to find and develop optimal models and techno economic analyses of different
hybrid sources of energy that can be considered as future research. Other different
algorithms can reduce the overall energy costs as well as emissions that will eventually
provide optimal models for hybrid energy sources.

35
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