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China's urbanization rate expected to reach 48% in 2010

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China's urbanization rate will reach 48 percent in 2010, according to the Blue Book on Chinese Society released by Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). The country's urbanization rate is expected to exceed the critical 50 percent mark in 2012 or 2013. Speeding urbanization will drive consumption significantly and will have a positive impact on the real estate market in the long term, experts say. The rate was calculated based on the urban residential population, said Li Peilin, director at the CASS sociological research center. He noted that China's current urbanization rate of 46 percent was much lower than the average level of 85 percent in developed countries, and was also lower than the world average of 55 percent.

Special Coverage "Urbanization will absolutely spur China's consumption," Li said. China has nearly 200 million migrant workers, who always send the money they earned in the cities to their families in the rural area. If they have registered permanent residence permit in towns and cities and their families can move to live there, great consumption potential can be exploited. When the urbanization rate is lifted by 1 percent, around 10 million people will move to towns and cities, and the growth rate of final consumption will be driven by 1.6 percentage points, according to the experts' calculation. Real estate market will also benefit from the quickening urbanization process. China has set a goal of 65 percent of urbanization rate in 2050. "This means that in the coming 40 years, we will strive for 20-percentage points of growth in the urbanization rate. Around 300 million rural residents will be urban residents by then," noted Yang Yiyong, deputy head of the institute of social development under the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). This great population movement will lead to a huge demand for houses, and will bring positive impact on China's real estate market and economic development in the long run. By People's Daily Online
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