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NIHSS Cut-Point For Predicting Outcome Neurology 2018
NIHSS Cut-Point For Predicting Outcome Neurology 2018
0000000000006437
ARTICLE
®
georgeinstitute.org.cn
Neurology 2018;00:1-7. doi:10.1212/WNL.0000000000006437
Abstract
Objective
To determine the optimal cutpoint on the NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS) for predicting poor
90-day clinical outcome in patients with supratentorial and infratentorial acute ischemic stroke
(AIS).
Methods
Data are from participants of the alteplase-dose arm of the randomized controlled trial,
Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke Study (ENCHANTED).
Associations between baseline characteristics of clinically defined supratentorial and infra-
tentorial AIS patients and poor functional outcome, defined by scores 3–6 on the modified
Rankin Scale, were evaluated in logistic regression models, with area under the curve (AUC)
receiver operating characteristics defining the optimal NIHSS predictor cutpoint.
Results
Patients with infratentorial AIS (n = 289) had lower baseline NIHSS scores than those with
supratentorial AIS (n = 2,613) (median 7 vs 9; p < 0.001). NIHSS cutpoints for poor outcome
were 10 (AUC 76, sensitivity 65%, specificity 73%) and 6 (AUC 69, sensitivity 72%, specificity
56%) in supratentorial and infratentorial AIS, respectively. There was no significant difference
in functional outcome or symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage between AIS types.
Conclusions
In thrombolysis-eligible AIS patients, the NIHSS may underestimate clinical severity for
infratentorial compared to supratentorial lesions for a similar prognosis for recovery. Because
thrombolysis treatment has low effect on stroke outcome in patients with infratentorial AIS
when baseline NIHSS score is more than 6, additional treatment such as endovascular treat-
ment should be considered to improve stroke outcome.
Clinicaltrials.gov identifier
NCT01422616.
From the Faculty of Medicine (S.Y., C.C., S.S., C.D., X.W., J.C., C.S.A.), The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW, Sydney, Australia; Department of Cerebrovascular Medicine (S.Y., S.
S.), National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Osaka, Japan; Sydney Medical School (R.I.L.), Westmead Hospital, University of Sydney; Neurology Department (C.C., C.D., C.S.A.),
Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Sydney Health Partners, Australia; and The George Institute China at Peking University Health Science Center (C.S.A.), Beijing, China.
Go to Neurology.org/N for full disclosures. Funding information and disclosures deemed relevant by the authors, if any, are provided at the end of the article.
The NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS) is the most widely used recorded any intracranial hemorrhage blind to clinical, se-
measure of neurologic severity to determine eligibility for quence, time, and image-adjunct data, using MIStar version
reperfusion therapy for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) in 3.2 (Apollo Medical Imaging Technology, Melbourne, Aus-
clinical practice and research.1–3 However, posterior circu- tralia). The primary outcome was poor functional outcome
lation AIS has worse functional outcome relative to supra- defined by scores of 3–6 on the modified Rankin Scale (mRS)
tentorial AIS for a given NIHSS score,4,5 largely because assessed at 90-day postrandomization. The primary safety
brainstem or cerebellum deficits are poorly represented on outcome was symptomatic ICH according to all standard
this scale.4 This discrepancy may lead patients with infra- definitions. The recording of any intracranial hemorrhage was
tentorial AIS being denied thrombolysis treatment based on based on standard definitions.6,7 Other outcomes included
a single low NIHSS score (e.g., <6), to define those with death within 90 days, death or neurologic deterioration within
potentially less favorable benefit:risk ratio for the treatment. 24 hours and 7 days, any ICH, and health-related quality of life
We aimed to determine the optimal cutpoint on the NIHSS assessed using the EQ-5D8 questionnaire. Neurologic de-
for predicting poor functional outcome in supratentorial and terioration was defined as an increase of 4 or more from
infratentorial AIS through analyses of a broad range of baseline in the NIHSS score.
thrombolysis-treated patients who participated in the
Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Statistical analysis
Stroke Study (ENCHANTED). Baseline data were summarized as median (interquartile
range), number (%), and mean (SD) for skewed, categorical,
and normally distributed variables, respectively. Variables were
Methods compared using Student t test, Mann-Whitney U test, Pearson
χ 2 test, or Fisher exact test, as appropriate. Logistic regression
Design and assessments models were used to determine independent predictors of poor
ENCHANTED is an ongoing international, multicenter, outcome (mRS scores 3–6), after adjustment for sex, age, and
randomized, open, blinded endpoint trial with a quasifactorial significance (p < 0.05) identified in univariate analysis for
design. The first arm of the study comparing the effectiveness supratentorial and infratentorial groups, and reported as odds
of low dose (0.6 mg/kg) vs standard dose (0.9 mg/kg) IV ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The optimal pre-
alteplase is complete6,7; the other arm comparing intensive vs dictor cutpoints on the NIHSS were determined from con-
guideline-recommended blood pressure management is on- structed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves with
going. The current study relates to the dataset from the the Youden9 method. Statistical analyses were conducted using
alteplase dose arm. SAS version 9.3 (SAS Institute, Cary, NC).
ENCHANTED was approved by all relevant regulatory au- Data availability
thorities and ethics committees of participating centers, and Individual de-identified participant data used in this analysis
written informed consent was obtained from patients or their will be shared by request from any qualified investigator via
approved surrogate. The study is registered with Clin- the Research Office of The George Institute.
icalTrials.gov (NCT01422616).
Baseline characteristics
Medical history
Stroke features
Neurologic symptoms
Unilateral paresis ± sensory deficit of face 2087 (80) 207 (72) <0.001
Unilateral paresis ± sensory deficit of arm/hand 2,274 (87) 218 (75) <0.001
Unilateral weakness ± sensory deficit of leg/foot 2,176 (83) 217 (75) <0.001
Signs of cerebral ischemia on initial brain imaging 642 (25) 60 (21) 0.173
Visible infarct lesion on initial brain imaging 599/2,613 (23) 69/289 (23.9) 0.771
Proximal vessel occlusion on CTA or MRA 433/2,578 (17) 33/288 (11.5) 0.025
Large-artery occlusion from significant atheroma 1,086/2,613 (42) 106/289 (37) 0.124
Abbreviations: CTA = CT angiography; MRA = magnetic resonance angiography; mRS = modified Rankin Scale; NIHSS = NIH Stroke Scale.
Data are presented as median (interquartile range), number (%), or mean ± SD.
Treatment
Time from stroke onset to alteplase 170 (125–215) 180 (133–225) 0.047
Estimated body weight prior to alteplase 69.5 ± 14.4 69.9 ± 12.8 0.611
Outcomes
a
Symptomatic ICH (SITS-MOST) 38 (2) 1 (0.4) 0.174
c
Symptomatic ICH (ECASS2) 110 (4) 9 (3) 0.462
d
Symptomatic ICH (ECASS3) 44 (2) 4 (1) 1.000
Abbreviations: ECASS = European–Australian Cooperative Acute Stroke Study; EQ-5D = EuroQoL Group 5-Dimension Self-Report Questionnaire; ICH =
intracerebral hemorrhage; IST3 = third International Stroke Trial; mRS = modified Rankin Scale; NIHSS = NIH Stroke Scale; NINDS = National Institute of
Neurologic Diseases and Stroke; SITS-MOST= Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke–Monitoring Study.
Data are presented as median (interquartile range), number (%), or mean ± SD.
a
The definition of symptomatic ICH from SITS-MOST: a large local or remote parenchymal ICH (type 2, defined as greater than 30% of the infarcted area
affected by hemorrhage with mass effect or extension outside the infarct) combined with neurologic deterioration (≥4 points on the NIHSS score) or leading to
death within 36 hours.
b
The definition of symptomatic ICH from the NINDS trial: any ICH associated with neurologic deterioration (≥1 point change in NIHSS score) from baseline or
death within 36 hours.
c
The definition of symptomatic ICH from the ECASS2: any ICH with neurologic deterioration (≥4 points on the NIHSS score) from baseline or death within 36
hours.
d
The definition of symptomatic ICH from the ECASS3: any ICH with neurologic deterioration (≥4 points increase on the NIHSS score) from baseline or death
within 36 hours.
e
The definition of symptomatic ICH from the IST3: any significant ICH (local or distant from the infarct) or significant hemorrhagic transformation of an infarct
on brain imaging with clinically significant deterioration or death within the first 7 days of treatment.
f
Any parenchymal ICH of type 2 and death.
Table 3 Baseline predictors of modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score 3–6 at 90 days by stroke lesion location
Supratentorial Infratentorial
Age, y 66 (57–74) 72 (63–79) <0.001 1.03 1.02–1.04 <0.001 65 (57–73) 69 (61–77) 0.010 1.03 1.01–1.06 0.014
Atrial fibrillation 16 30 <0.001 1.20 0.91–1.59 0.199 5 20 <0.001 3.75 1.22–11.6 0.022
NIHSS score 7 (4–11) 13 (9–18) <0.001 1.18 1.16–1.20 <0.001 6 (4–10) 9 (6–15) <0.001 1.08 1.03–1.12 <0.001
Cardioembolism 18.5 27.6 <0.001 0.77 0.58–1.02 0.070 6.4 17.0 0.009 0.84 0.27–2.59 0.763
Time to alteplase, min 176 (130–220) 165 (122–210) 0.005 1.00 0.92–1.08 0.935 187 (135–225) 170 (115–219) 0.108
A, B) Arrows show the optimal cutpoint by the Youden method. CI = confidence interval.
death or neurologic deterioration within 24 hours and 7 days, circulation AIS. The first study showed that the optimal base-
or health-related quality of life. Table 3 shows the factors line NIHSS cutpoints for predicting recovery (mRS 0–2) were
associated with poor functional outcome according to 5 and 8 for posterior circulation and anterior circulation AIS,
supratentorial and infratentorial AIS, in particular highlighting respectively, in 310 patients without thrombolysis treatment
the significance of baseline neurologic severity according to recruited within 3 days after the onset of symptoms.4 The other
NIHSS on admission in multivariable analysis. study also showed the NIHSS cutpoints of 4 and 8 for posterior
circulation and anterior circulation AIS, respectively, predicted
Figure 1 shows ROC curves for NIHSS scores in relation to recovery (modified Barthel Index score ≥18) in a registry of
poor functional outcome, the areas under the curve being 0.76 1,569 AIS patients, of whom 24% received IV alteplase.5 While
(95% CI 0.74–0.78) and 0.69 (95% CI 0.63–0.75) in supra- these reports are consistent in showing that patients with
tentorial and infratentorial AIS, respectively. Optimal NIHSS posterior circulation AIS have worse functional outcome on the
cutpoints were 10 (sensitivity 65%, specificity 73%) in NIHSS relate to those with anterior circulation AIS, there has
supratentorial AIS and 6 (sensitivity 72%, specificity 56%) in been limited information specifically in those eligible for
infratentorial AIS. ROC curve analysis stratified by age (<60 thrombolysis, where there may be differences in prognosis.10
vs ≥60 years) and baseline Glasgow Coma Scale score (3–12 Thus, our study adds further information related to the limi-
vs 13–15) to decrease the potential confounding of this po- tation of the NIHSS with respect to grading the severity of
tent predictive factor show similar results (figures e-1 and e-2, posterior circulation AIS, with a 4-point difference in relative
doi.org/10.5061/dryad.1kn74rt). prognosis on the scale between supratentorial and infratento-
rial AIS, as also emphasized in other reports.4,5
There have been 2 prior single-center studies that assessed A meta-analysis of trials of IV alteplase in AIS suggests the
cutpoints on the NIHSS for predicting functional outcome broad benefits of this treatment extend to patients with mild
in patients with posterior circulation compared to anterior neurologic severity (NIHSS 0–4),11 but evidence for the
Updated Information & including high resolution figures, can be found at:
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437.full
Subspecialty Collections This article, along with others on similar topics, appears in the
following collection(s):
CT
http://n.neurology.org/cgi/collection/ct
Infarction
http://n.neurology.org/cgi/collection/infarction
MRI
http://n.neurology.org/cgi/collection/mri
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