Flash Note

Chemicals – Channel checks 11 February 2021

Upward trend continues...

We performed channel checks to get insights into prevailing price trends and demand scenario for some
of the chemicals that are relevant for companies under our coverage. The key highlights from our checks
are as follows.
Phenol and Acetone prices rose sharply by 23.1% and 41.0% MoM on account of healthy demand and tight
supply in global market while IPA prices rose by 17.5% MoM due to higher Acetone prices. During the last
one month, Phenol spreads rose by 21.3% to US$ 706/MT. Average spreads for 4Q’21 are up 5.4% YoY while
down 21.7% QoQ to US$ 605/MT. Average spreads for 3Q’21 were up 37.1% YoY and up 11.2% QoQ to US$ 772/MT.
Average spreads for FYTD21 are up 53.5% YoY to US$ 798/MT.
Refrigerant prices inched upward in the range of 16-24% MoM on account of healthy demand and increase
in raw material prices. VAM prices continues to inch upward (up 11.7% MoM) led by disruption in global
supply chain.
Caustic soda and Sodium bicarbonate prices rose 3.6% and 13.0% MoM while Soda ash prices remained
flat MoM. TDI prices rose by 4.2% MoM as demand continues to remain strong. PTFE prices rose 18.2% MoM
led by expensive imports and improving demand.
Phthalic Anhydride and Maleic Anhydride prices continue to correct from highs (down by 3.5% and 5.9%
MoM, respectively) on the back of easing supplies; however, demand continues to remain healthy. Pigment
prices have corrected in the range of 3-5% MoM led by softness in demand while carbon black prices
inched upward by 12.9% MoM on account of lower and expensive imports. Demand from tyre industry
continues to remain strong.
Palm oil prices continue to inch upward and rose 3.5% MoM. SLES and SLS prices rose 2.1% MoM as demand
continues to remain healthy. LABSA prices rose 2.1% MoM while demand remains stable.

1
 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg

60
110

100

70
80
90
600

300
400

0
100
500

200
700

350

150

100
300

250

200
Flash Note

Feb'18 Feb'19 Jul-18

May'18 Apr'19 Sept-18

Source: B&K Research

Source: B&K Research
Source: B&K Research
Nov'18

Price trend – TDI

Aug'18 Jun'19
Jan-19
Nov'18 Aug'19
Mar-19

H-acid
Feb'19 Oct'19 May-19
Dec'19 Jul-19
May'19
Trend of few key chemicals

Sep-19
Aug'19 Feb-19
Nov-19
Chemicals - Channel checks

Price trend – Phthalic Anhydride

TDI
Nov'19 Apr-20
Jan-20
Feb-20 June'20 Mar-20

Phthalic Anhydride
Aug'20 May'20
Price trend – H-Acid and Vinyl Sulphone

May'20
July'20
Aug'20 Oct'20 Vinyl Sulphone
Sep'20
Nov'20 Dec'20 Nov'20
Feb'21 Feb'21 Jan'21

2
Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg

30
35
40
45
55
50

20
25
400
600

200
800
140
290

110
260

50
230

20
170

80
200

Feb-18 Jan'18 Jan'18

May-18 Apr'18 Mar'18
May'18
July'18

R 410
Aug-18

R134a
Jul'18
Oct'18 Sept-18
Nov'18
Jan'19 Nov'18
Feb'19 Jan'19
Apr'19
ABS

China Fluorspar
Price trend – Refrigerants

Mar'19

Price trend – Caustic Soda

May'19 July'19 May'19
Aug'19 Oct'19 Jul'19
Jan'20 Sep'19
R32

Nov'19
R 22
Price trend – ABS and Polystyrene

Nov'19
Apr-20

Caustic Soda
Feb-20 Jan-19
July'20 Mar-20
May'20
PS

Oct'20 May'20
Aug'20 July'20
Jan'21
Sep'20
Nov'20
15
25
35
45

Nov'20
Feb'21 Rs/ kg Jan'21
Flash Note
Chemicals - Channel checks

Phenol spreads at US$ 706/MT...

Average spreads for 4Q’21 are up 5.4%YoY while down 21.7% QoQ to US$ 605/MT. Average spreads for 3Q’21
were up 37.1% YoY and up 11.2% QoQ to US$ 772/MT. Average spreads for FYTD21 are up 53.5% YoY to US$ 798/
MT.
We understand that the spreads for Deepak Nitrite are 15-20% higher than mathematical calculations as
they enjoy operational efficiencies.
Iso-Propyl Alcohol (IPA) average spreads for 4Q’21 are down 60.9% YoY to US$ 56/MT while for 3Q’21 spreads
were negative at US$ 13/MT. Average spreads for FYTD21 are down 17.2% YoY to US$ 121/MT.
IPA prices shot up in March 2020 led by rising demand of hand sanitizers globally. Deepak Nitrite
commissioned 30,000 mtpa Iso-Propyl Alcohol plant in April 2020 and hence it got benefitted from higher
spreads in 1QFY21 (up 55.9% YoY and 1.1x QoQ). Despite correction in spreads from 2QFY21 onwards, Deepak
Nitrite would enjoy higher margins as the company manufactures pharmaceutical grade IPA which
fetches premium in the market.

Phenol spreads – Over the years IPA spreads – Over the years
2,000 1,000
800
1,500
600
USD/ MT
USD/MT

1,000 400
200
500
0
0 (200)
05-02-20

05-02-21
05-02-11

05-02-12

05-02-13

05-02-14

05-02-15

05-02-16

05-02-17

05-02-18

05-02-19

05-11-20
05-05-19
05-11-18

05-11-19

05-08-20
05-02-20

05-02-21
05-08-19
05-02-19

05-05-20
Phenol Spreads IPA Spreads

Source: Bloomberg, B&K Research

Phenol spreads – One-year trend IPA spreads – One-year trend

1,700 1,000
1,500 800
1,300 600
USD/ MT
USD/ MT

1,100
400
900
700 200
500 0
300 (200)
05-04-20

05-11-20
05-06-20

05-09-20
05-08-20
05-02-20

05-07-20

05-02-21
05-05-20

05-10-20

05-12-20
05-03-20

05-01-21

05-04-20

05-11-20
05-06-20

05-09-20
05-08-20
05-02-20

05-07-20

05-02-21
05-05-20

05-10-20

05-12-20
05-03-20

05-01-21

Phenol Spreads IPA Spreads

Source: Bloomberg, B&K Research

3
Flash Note
Chemicals - Channel checks

Channel checks
Chemicals Std Last Jan 20/ Dec 20/ Jan 21/ YoY MoM Companies having exposure
Updated Feb 20 Jan 20 Feb 21 (%) (%)
Phenol Rs/kg 09-02-2021 76 65 80 5.3 23.1 Deepak Nitrite
Rs/kg 09-02-2021 54 61 86 59.3 41.0 Deepak Nitrite
Acetone Continued turnaround resulting into lower production in the global market coupled with
improved demand drove prices upward.
Rs/kg 09-02-2021 80 94 17.5 Deepak Nitrite
Iso Propyl
Uptick in Acetone prices resulted into higher IPA prices; demand continues to remain healthy
Alcohol
from pharma industry.
Rs/kg 09-02-2021 33 28 29 (12.1) 3.6 Gujarat Fluoro, GACL, Meghmani
Organics, Atul
Caustic Soda
Stable demand from textile and paper industry continues to support prices; Chlorine prices
continues to be positive.
Rs/kg 09-02-2021 26 25 25 (2.0) - Tata Chem, GHCL
Soda Ash Pricing may witness some pressure in the near-term on account of rejection of ADD on imports;
demand from glass industry continues to improve.
Rs/kg 09-02-2021 23 26 13.0 Tata Chem, GHCL
Sodium
Demand from pharma industry continues to remain strong and the prices are expected to be
Bicarbonate
stable.
CPC Blue Rs/kg 09-02-2021 270 350 330 22.2 (5.7) Meghmani Organics, Sudarshan
Beta Blue Rs/kg 09-02-2021 340 380 360 5.9 (5.3) Chemical Industries
Alpha Blue Rs/kg 09-02-2021 480 460 (4.2)
Rs/kg 09-02-2021 410 550 530 29.3 (3.6)
Pigment Green Prices continue to remain elevated led by higher raw material costs; demand in soft on account
of high product prices.
Rs/kg 09-02-2021 93 105 12.9 Phillips Carbon Black and Himadri
Speciality Chemicals
Carbon Black
Uptick in the price was on account of lower and expensive imports; demand from tyre industry
continues to remain strong.
Rs/kg 09-02-2021 135 168 175 29.6 4.2 GNFC
TDI Demand from automobile industry continues to improve and Furniture and Bedding demand
continues to remain strong.
Rs/kg 09-02-2021 550 650 18.2 Gujarat Fluoro
PTFE
Expensive imports coupled with improving demand led to MoM increase in the prices.
Rs/kg 09-02-2021 67 85 82 22.4 (3.5) IG Petro Chemicals and
Phthalic Thirumalai Chemicals
Anhydride Prices continues to correct from their highs due to easing supply from imports. Demand
continues to remain healthy.
Rs/kg 09-02-2021 119 112 (5.9) IG Petro Chemicals and
Maleic Thirumalai Chemicals
Anhydride Prices continues to correct from their highs due to easing supply from imports. Demand
continues to remain healthy.
Rs/kg 09-02-2021 72 72 - IG Petro Chemicals and
Benzoic Acid
Thirumalai Chemicals
Palm Oil Rs/kg 09-02-2021 106 114 7.5
Rs/kg 09-02-2021 142 145 2.1 Galaxy, Aarti Surfactants and
SLS
Ultramarine Pigments

4
Flash Note
Chemicals - Channel checks

Chemicals Std Last Jan 20/ Dec 20/ Jan 21/ YoY MoM Companies having exposure
Updated Feb 20 Jan 20 Feb 21 (%) (%)
Rs/kg 09-02-2021 48 49 2.1 Galaxy, Aarti Surfactants and
SLES Ultramarine Pigments
Demand for SLES continues to remain healthy.
Rs/kg 09-02-2021 94 96 2.1 Galaxy, Aarti Surfactants and
LABSA Ultramarine Pigments
Demand remained stable MoM.
Acrylonitrile Rs/kg 28-01-2021 132 126 (4.5) Vinati Organics (RM)
Meta Amino Rs/kg 28-01-2021 960 960 900 (6.3) (6.3) Sadhna Nitro chem
Phenol
Vinyl Acetate Rs/kg 28-01-2021 94 105 11.7 Pidilite Industries (RM)
Monomer Prices continues to inch upward.
Rs/kg 25-01-2021 500 460 550 10.0 19.6 SRF
R-134A
Prices rose MoM on account of healthy demand and increase in raw material prices.
Rs/kg 25-01-2021 460 450 560 21.7 24.4 SRF, Navin Fluorine and Gujarat Fluoro
R-22
Prices rose MoM on account of healthy demand and increase in raw material prices.
Rs/kg 25-01-2021 420 360 420 (14.3) 16.7 SRF, Navin Fluorine and Gujarat
R-410
Fluoro
R-32 Rs/kg 25-01-2021 440 360 420 (4.5) 16.7 SRF and Gujarat Fluoro
Rs/kg 12-01-2021 110 250 275 150.0 10.0 INEOS Styrolution, Bhansali Engg..
ABS Prices continue to remain elevated led by supply shortage coupled with strong demand from
Auto and Appliance Industries.
Rs/kg 12-01-2021 94 210 210 123.4 - BASF
MDI Prices shot up led by supply disruption; prices expected to remain elevated in the near-term as
demand from application industry continues to remain strong.
Rs/kg 12-01-2021 102 112 9.8 SRF
BoPET
Prices remain flat MoM led by stable demand in the domestic market.
Rs/kg 12-01-2021 131 140 6.9 SRF
BoPP
Domestic prices have increased led by lower and expensive imports from China.
H Acid Rs/kg 04-01-2021 390 390 425 9.0 9.0 Bodal, Shree Pushkar, Bhageria, Kiri
Rs/kg 04-01-2021 200 190 215 7.5 13.2 Bodal, Shree Pushkar, Bhageria, Kiri
Vinyl Sulphone Manufacturers are able to pass on the higher raw material prices on the back of marginal uptick
in demand; demand in market is decent despite December being seasonally weak month.
Rs/kg 04-01-2021 86 120 92 7.0 (23.3) Supreme Petro, INEOS Styrolution
Polystyrene
Prices corrected MoM led by higher imports from Iran.
Rs/kg 04-01-2021 265 260 (1.9) Atul, Meghmani organics
2,4 D
Prices continues to correct led by soft demand.
Rs/kg 04-01-2021 1,100 330 400 (63.6) 21.2 Deepak Nitrite
DASDA Prices continues to inch upward led by tight supply from China. Further, container issue at port
led to lower imports.
Rs/kg 04-01-2021 600 300 350 (41.7) 16.7 Deepak Nitrite
Optical
Demand continues to remain soft. The price ranges from Rs 200/kg to Rs 1,500/kg depending
Brighteners
upon the grade and the application.
Meta Phenylene US$/kg 04-01-2021 16 9 9 (43.8) - Aarti Industries
Diamine Prices remained stable MoM; demand continues to remain soft.

5
Flash Note
Chemicals - Channel checks

Monthly price tracker of November 2020

Please find below the monthly price tracker of some of the key chemicals for the month of November 2020.
We have segregated the relevant chemicals prices company wise. These are the export and import prices
which are relevant for these companies are taken from DGCIS.
Aarti Industries
Chlorination and Nitration chemistries combined account for ~25% of FY20 specialty chemicals revenues
(~30% in FY19). Some of the products that fall under these chemistries are as follows:
• Mono Chloro Benzene – Rs 99/kg (up 99.4% YoY, up 94.0% MoM).
• O - Di Chloro Benzene – Rs 87/kg (down 11.6% YoY, up 17.2% MoM).
• P – Di Chloro Benzene – Rs 53/kg (down 14.6% YoY, down 24.0% MoM).
• Di Nitro Chloro Benzene – Rs 94/kg (down 10.5% YoY, up 1.9% MoM).
Some of the value-added products:
• o Meta Phenylene diamine – Rs 585/kg (up 6.4% YoY, up 0.6% MoM).
• o Di Chloro Aniline– Rs 263/kg (down 4.1% YoY, up 15.6% MoM).
• o O – Nitro Toluene– Rs 91/kg (down 8.9% YoY, up 13.2% MoM).
Atul
• P-Cresol – Rs 142/kg (down 25.5% YoY, down 2.0% MoM).
• Resorcinol – Rs 655/kg (down 5.7% YoY, up 3.1% MoM).
• 2,4 D – Rs 153/kg (down 0.8% YoY, down 0.8% MoM).
• Epoxy Resin – Rs 174/kg (up 7.6% YoY, up 3.6% MoM).
• Reactive Dyes – Rs 257/kg (down 11.8% YoY, up 0.1% MoM).
• Sulphur Black – Rs 103/kg (down 5.9% YoY, up 4.2% MoM).
• Vat Dyes – Rs 1,724/kg (up 38.7% YoY, up 15.8% MoM).
SRF
Technical Textiles
• Nylon Tyre Cord Fabric (NTCF) (import realisation) – Rs 107/kg (down 41.7% YoY, down 34.9% MoM); NTCF –
Capro spreads – Rs 25/kg (down 65.3% YoY, down 71.0% MoM).
Refrigerants
• R22 – Rs 148/kg (down 18.8 % YoY, down 9.2% MoM).
Packaging Films
• BoPET – Rs 112/kg (up 10.7% YoY, down 0.6% MoM). BoPET spreads – TPA + MEG – Rs 59/kg (up 26.6% YoY, up
5.1% MoM).
• BoPP – Rs 133/kg (up 1.1% YoY, down 1.5% MoM). BoPP – PP spreads – Rs 56/kg (up 10.7% YoY, down 7.6% MoM).
Gujarat Fluorochemicals
• Caustic Soda Flakes (import realisation) – Rs 27/kg (down 19.2% YoY, down 6.7% MoM).
• Chloromethane (import realisation) – Rs 53/kg (down 10.3% YoY).
• PTFE – Rs 667/kg (flat YoY, down 3.2% MoM).

6
Flash Note
Chemicals - Channel checks

Aarti Industries – Commodity Grade Products Aarti Industries – Value Added Products
1,500 150
190
170
150 1,000 100

Rs / kg
Rs/ kg
130
Rs/ kg

110
90 500 50
70
50 0 0
30

Jan-20

Nov-20
Mar-20

Jul-20
May-20

Sep-20
Jan-19
Nov-18

Nov-19
Mar-18

Jul-18

Mar-19

Jul-19
Sep-19
May-18

Sep-18

May-19
Jan-20
Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20
May-20

Sep-20
Jan-19
Nov-18

Nov-19
Mar-18

Jul-18

Mar-19

Jul-19
May-19

Sep-19
May-18

Sep-18

Meta Phenelyene diamine

Monochloro benzene Ortho Di Chloro benzene 3,4 Di Chloro Aniline
Para Di Chloro benzene Di Nitro Chloro Benzene O- Nitro toluene (RHS)

Source: DGCIS, B&K Research

Atul – Key product realisations Atul – Key product realisations

3,500
380
330 3,000
280 2,500
230 2,000
180 1,500
130
1,000
80
500
Jan-20
Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20
May-20

Sep-20
Jan-19
Nov-18

Nov-19
Mar-18

Jul-18

Mar-19

Jul-19
May-18

Sep-18

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20
Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20
May-20

Sep-20
Nov-18
Jan-19

Nov-19
Mar-18

Jul-18

Jul-19
May-18

Sep-18

Mar-19
May-19

Sep-19
P-Cresol Reactive Dyes
Sulphur Black 2-4-D
Epoxy resins Resorcinol Vat Dyes

Source: DGCIS, B&K Research

SRF – Key product realisations SRF – Key product realisations

300 180
250 160
140
200 120
150 100
100 80
60
50
40
0 20
0
Jan-20

Nov-20
Mar-20

Jul-20
May-20

Sep-20
Nov-18
Jan-19

Nov-19
Mar-18

Jul-18
May-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Jul-19
May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20
Mar-20

Jul-20
May-20

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-19
Nov-18

Nov-19
Jul-19
Mar-18

Jul-18

Mar-19

Sep-19
May-18

Sep-18

May-19

Nylon Tyre Cord Fabric*

NTCF Spreads BOPET BOPET Spreads
R22 BOPP BOPP Spreads

Source: DGCIS, B&K Research

7
Flash Note
Chemicals - Channel checks

Gujarat Fluorochemicals – Key product realisations

750

700

650

600

550

Jan-20

Nov-20
Mar-20

Jul-20
May-20

Sep-20
Jan-19
Nov-18

Nov-19
Mar-18

Jul-18

Mar-19

Jul-19
May-18

Sep-18

May-19

Sep-19
PTFE

Gujarat Fluorochemicals Key Product realizations

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2021/1/Chemicals - Monthly Update - 27 Jan 21.pdf
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2021/1/Chemicals - Channel checks - Flash Note - 13 Jan 21.pdf

Ranjit Cirumalla Parth Adhiya Sanket Kabra

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
ranjit.cirumalla@bksec.com parth.adhiya@bksec.com sanket.kabra@bksec.com
+91-22-4031 7127 +91-22-4031 7167 +91-22-4031 7130

8
Flash Note
Chemicals - Channel checks

B&K Universe Profile – by AMFI Definition

140
126
120

no. of companies
100
79 80
80
60
40
20
0
Top 100 Next 150 Residual
(Large Cap) (Mid Cap) (Small Cap)

B&K Securities is the trading name of Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd.

B&K Investment Ratings

LARGE CAP (Market Cap > USD 2 bn) MID & SMALL CAP (Market Cap < USD 2 bn)

BUY >+15% >+20%

HOLD +15% to -10 % +20% to -15 %

SELL <-10% <-15%

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9
Flash Note
Chemicals - Channel checks

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