Professional Documents
Culture Documents
NBA BASIC - Happy Hour Co - DCF Model v2
NBA BASIC - Happy Hour Co - DCF Model v2
Mar-20
Happy Hour Co — MODEL
Assumptions
Circular switch
On / off 1
Key assumptions
EV ($m) 413.0
Happy Hour Co - 5 Year plan
5 Year Plan
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Revenue 1,149 1,256 1,354 1,447 1,443
YoY growth % 9.3% 7.8% 6.9% -0.3%
GP $ 583 634 689 737 753
GM% 50.7% 50.5% 50.9% 50.9% 52.2%
Opex (523) (580) (622) (662) (678)
Operating profit 60 54 67 75 75
Operating margin % 5.2% 4.3% 4.9% 5.2% 5.2%
Interest and Amortisation (5) (6) (6) (6) (6)
Group PBT (Underlying) 55 48 61 68 69
March YE ($mm) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Total revenue 939.7 1,004.9 1,021.5 1,095.0 1,135.1 1,138.6 1,149.2 1,255.6 1,353.8 1,447.0 1,442.6 1,471.5 1,471.5 1,471.5 1,471.5 1,471.5 1,486.2
Management case 1,149.2 1,255.6 1,353.8 1,447.0 1,442.6
% forecast growth 0.9% 9.3% 7.8% 6.9% (0.3%) 2.0% 1.0%
EBITDA 101.1 109.9 114.6 108.7 109.5 98.2 94.1 92.6 111.8 124.4 127.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 133.8
Management case 94.1 92.6 111.8 124.4 127.6
% growth n.a. 8.7% 4.3% (5.1%) 0.7% (10.3%) (4.1%) (1.6%) 20.7% 11.3% 2.6% (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% forecast margin 8.2% 7.4% 8.3% 8.6% 8.8% 9.0%
Depreciation and amortisation (23.3) (25.3) (30.1) (31.6) (34.9) (36.0) (36.1) (40.5) (47.2) (51.8) (54.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% growth n.a. 8.6% 19.0% 5.0% 10.4% 3.2% 0.4% 12.0% 16.7% 9.8% 5.7% (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% capex 76.6% 67.5% 74.7% 87.5% 93.6% 116.1% 100.4% 79.3% 94.4% 103.7% 109.6% 95.0%
% margin 2.5% 2.5% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EBIT 77.8 84.6 84.5 77.1 74.6 62.2 58.0 52.2 64.6 72.6 72.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 133.8
% growth n.a. 8.7% (0.1%) (8.8%) (3.2%) (16.6%) (6.7%) (10.1%) 23.8% 12.3% 0.3% (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% margin 8.3% 8.4% 8.3% 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 5.0% 4.2% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0%
x Net income 55.5 65.8 64.9 59.5 58.4 48.3 44.5 39.9 60.5 68.5 68.7
% growth n.a. 18.6% (1.4%) (8.3%) (1.8%) (17.3%) (7.9%) (10.3%) 51.6% 13.2% 0.3%
% margin 5.9% 6.5% 6.4% 5.4% 5.1% 4.2% 3.9% 3.2% 4.5% 4.7% 4.8%
Cashflow statement
Capex (30.4) (37.5) (40.3) (36.1) (37.3) (31.0) (36.0) (51.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0)
% growth n.a. 23.4% 7.5% (10.4%) 3.3% (16.9%) 16.1% 41.7% (2.0%) 0.0% 0.0% (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% sales 3.2% 3.7% 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% 3.1% 4.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
% Cash conversion 69.9% 65.9% 64.8% 66.8% 65.9% 68.4% 61.8% 44.9% 55.3% 59.8% 60.8% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 100.0%
Change in Working Capital (5.3) 25.1 (11.2) (16.3) (12.6) (10.4) 6.0 16.1 15.2 11.1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% growth n.a. (573.6%) (144.6%) 45.5% (22.7%) (17.5%) (157.7%) 168.5% (5.9%) (26.8%) (64.4%) (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% sales (0.6%) 2.5% (1.1%) (1.5%) (1.1%) (0.9%) 0.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 (18.0) (6.8) 25.1 (4.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% growth n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (62.5%) (472.3%) (119.4%) (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.5% (1.7%) 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Summary financials
March Y/E 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Revenue 940 1,005 1,022 1,095 1,135 1,139 1,149 1,256 1,354 1,447 1,443 1,471 1,471 1,471 1,471 1,471 1,486
% growth n.a. 6.9% 1.7% 7.2% 3.7% 0.3% 0.9% 9.3% 7.8% 6.9% (0.3%) 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
EBITDA 101 110 115 109 110 98 94 93 112 124 128 0 0 0 0 0 134
% growth n.a. 8.7% 4.3% (5.1%) 0.7% (10.3%) (4.1%) (1.6%) 20.7% 11.3% 2.6% (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% margin 10.8% 10.9% 11.2% 9.9% 9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 7.4% 8.3% 8.6% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0%
D&A (23) (25) (30) (32) (35) (36) (36) (40) (47) (52) (55) 0 0 0 0 0 0
% of revenue (2.5%) (2.5%) (2.9%) (2.9%) (3.1%) (3.2%) (3.1%) (3.2%) (3.5%) (3.6%) (3.8%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
% of capex 76.6% 67.5% 74.7% 87.5% 93.6% 116.1% 100.4% 79.3% 94.4% 103.7% 109.6% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
EBIT 78 85 85 77 75 62 58 52 65 73 73 0 0 0 0 0 134
% growth n.a. 8.7% (0.1%) (8.8%) (3.2%) (16.6%) (6.7%) (10.1%) 23.8% 12.3% 0.3% (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% margin 8.3% 8.4% 8.3% 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 5.0% 4.2% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0%
EBITDA 101 110 115 109 110 98 94 93 112 124 128 0 0 0 0 0 134
Capex (30) (38) (40) (36) (37) (31) (36) (51) (50) (50) (50) 0 0 0 0 0 0
% revenue 3.2% 3.7% 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% 3.1% 4.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Change in NWC (5) 25 (11) (16) (13) (10) 6 16 15 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
% revenue (0.6%) 2.5% (1.1%) (1.5%) (1.1%) (0.9%) 0.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other Cashflows 0 0 0 0 (2) 1 0 0 (5) (5) (5) 0 0 0 0 0 0
% revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% (0.1%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Exceptional items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (18) (7) 25 (5) 0 0 0 0 0 0
% revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.5% (1.7%) 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DCF
Key assumptions
Transaction date 31-Mar-20
Next financial YE 31-Mar-21
Perpetuity growth rate <<< Put down the assumptions after discussing with your senior
TV exit EBITDA multiple
WACC used for sensitivity analysis
Stub period (731) (366) 0 365 730 1,095 1,461 1,826 2,191 2,556 2,922 3,287 3,652
Stub factor 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Actuals Estimates
March YE ($mm) 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Revenue
% growth n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
EBITDA
% margin n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% growth n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
D&A
% sales n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% of capex #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
EBIT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% margin n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% growth n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% tax rate
EBIAT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% margin n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% growth n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
D&A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capex
% sales n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% D&A #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Other Cashflows
% sales n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Exceptional items
% sales n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
FCF 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stub period 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
FCF for discounting 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Days to cashflow 0 365 731 1,096 1,461 1,826 2,192 2,557 2,922 3,287 3,653
Discount factor 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Sensitivity analysis
Spread rates and step-up
Perpetuity growth rate Perptuity growth rate step-up EBITDA multiple EBITDA multiple step-up
WACC WACC step-up WACC 0.0% WACC step-up 0.0%
Summary financials
March YE ($mm) 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
EBITDA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
D&A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% of capex #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
EBIT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tax rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EBIAT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+D&A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+ Maintenance capex 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+Change in working capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+ Exceptional cash flows 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+ Other cash flows 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
FCF 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
DCF output
Revenue 0 0
% growth #DIV/0!
EBITDA 0 0
% growth #DIV/0!
D&A 0 0
% of capex #DIV/0!
EBIT 0 0
Tax on EBIT 0
Capex 0
% of revenue #DIV/0!
Change in NWC 0
Other Cashflows 0
% of revenue #DIV/0!
Exceptional items 0
% of revenue #DIV/0!
1
Cashflow Timing (Years to Discount)
1.00
Discount Factor
Discounted DCF cashflows 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
sitising firm value ($m) and implied offer price to WACC and TGR
2029E 2030E
0 0
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
0 0
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
0 0
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
0 0
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
0 0
0.0% 0.0%
0 0
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
0 0
0 0
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
0 0
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
0 0 #DIV/0!
9 10
1.00 1.00
0 0 #DIV/0!