Revised 13th Edition According to the Latest Syllabus of MAKAUT and other Equivalent Courses ENGINEERING scope preinaipes i Volume-IIA for 2n, (For CSE & IT) iN ae coe B.K.PAL, u.s-.,Ph.0. Ve, } (B. N. Banerjee Gold Medalist & Recipient of soem coeaiy Head of the Department of Mathematics(Retd™ Maulana Azad College, Kolkata Formerly, Reader in Mathematics Kalyani Government Engineering College, Nadia, West Bengal. K.DAS, usc.3.24,Ph0. Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Mathematics, Krishnanagor Government College, Nadia, West Bengal Formerly, Associate Professor, A.B.N. Seal College, Coochbehar, West Bengal Assistant Professor and artment of Mathematics Kalyani Government = Madia, West Bengal. U.N. DHUR & SONS PRIVATE LIMITED KOLKATA - 700 073© Reserved by the Authors Publication, Distribution and Promotion Rights reserved by the Publisher All rights reserved. No part of the text in general, figures, diagrams, page-layout and cover design in particular, may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or,by any means - electronic, mechanical photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system - without the prior written permission of the Publisher. ISBN-978-93-80673-16-5 Fit Edition” 2006 ‘Second Edition 2005 Third Edition 2006 Fourth Edition 2007 Reprint 2008 Bifh Edition 2009 ae Sith Edition 2010 S[D* 2ng2 Seventh Edition 2010 PAL Reprint 2012 es Eighth “Edition 2013 Wr 2h Ninth Edition 2014 Reprint 2015 2015 2017 2018 2019 Price : Rupees Three hundred fifty only Published by Dr. Purnendu Dhar, M.Sc. (Chem.), Ph.D. on behalf of v/s. U. N. DHUR & SONS PRIVATE LIMITED 2A, Bhawani Dutta Lane, Kolkata - 700 073 Phone : (033) 2241-9573 / 2241-1734 / 2257-1209 Mobile : 94328 89588 / 94330 17406 / 98301 69816 Printed by : Nabaloke Press 15/2,Nerode Behari Mullick Road, Kolkata - 700 006Preface to the Revised 13” edition This edition is thoroughly revised according to the latest syllabus of MAKAUT according to the Modules of the present syllabus for Il A Semester [ For CSE & IT ] We do hope that, this book will be the most helpful for the students to cover the specific syllabus in time and to secure high marks in examinations will guide the students to secure high marks in the examination. We express our heartiest thanks to all the Professors for recommending our books to the students. All the suggestions for improvement will be accepted with thanks. We are thankful to our publisher for bringing out edition in time. Kolkata, B.K. Pal January,2019 K.DasPreface Engineering Mathematics being one of the most essential subjects of the B.Tech., course offered by the Engineering or ‘Technological Institutes affiliated by the West Bengal University of Technology i.e: W.B.U.T. This text book is written according to the syllabus of W.B.U.T. covering the entire course in four separate volumes as per the four semesters. ‘The present volume (Vol Il) has been designed for the students of B.Tech first year (2nd semester, all branches) under W.B.U. Tech. : Sincere attempts have been made to present the topics of the prescribed syllabus of the University ina simple and lucid form to create interest to the students about the subject for securing very good marks in the examination . ‘Special emphasis has been given on various types of problems along with worked out model solutions which are particularly relevant to the engineering Students. We are sure that this book will certainly be very much helpful to the students of the present generation. Any positive suggestion for the improvement of the book shall be acknowledged with thanks. We take this opportunity to express our gratitude to Dr. Parijat De. Principal, Kalyani Government Engineering College, for encouraging us to complete this difficult task. We are thankful to Dr. Purnendu Dhar, M. Sc.(Chem)., Ph.D.,Director, M/s.U.N.Dhur& Sons Pvt. Ltd. for publishing the book in a very short time. Our thanks are also due to our family members for their constant encouragement and enthusiasm time to time Kalyani Govt. Engg. College Bidyut Kumar Pal Nadia, West Bengal. Kalidas Das Dated : February. 2004.SYLLABUS Maulana Abul Kalam Azad University of Technology, West Bengal (Formerly West Bengal University of Technology)Ist Year Curriculum ‘Structure for B.Tech courses in Engineering & Technology (Applicable from the academic session 2018-2019)Page24 of 33 Course Code : BS-M201 Category : Basie Science Course Course Title : Mathematics ~ II A Semester : Second (CSE &1T) L-FP:3:1-0 Credit: 4 Pre-Requisites: High School Mathematics and BS-M10 1 Description of Topic Lectures Hours 1 Module No. 1. Basic Probabiti Probability spaces, conditional probability, independence; Discrete random variables, Independent random variables, the Multinomial distribution, Poisson approximation to the ‘sequences of Bernoulli trials, sums of independent random variables; Expectation wmial distribution, infinite of Discrete Random Variables, Moments, Variance of a sum, Correlation coefficient, Chebyshev’s Inequality. ML Module No. 2 Continuous Probability Distributions: Continuous random variables and their properties, Distribution functions and, densities, Normal, Exponential and Gamma densities 4L Module No.3 Bivariate Distributions: Bivariate distributions and their properties, distribution of sums and quotients, Conditional densities, Bayes! rule. skvi ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS- IIB. Module No 4 Basic Statistics: ‘Measures of Central tendency, Moments, Skewness and Kurtosis, Probability distributions: Binomial, Poisson and Normal and evaluation of statist parameters for these three distributions, Correlation and regression — Rank correlation. 8L. Module No 5 Applied Statistics: Curve fitting by the method of least squares- fitting of straight lines, second degree parabolas and more general curves. Test of significance: Large sample test for single proportion, difference of proportions, single mean, difference of means, and difference of standard deviations. 8L. Module No 6 ‘Small samples: ‘Test for single mean, difference of means and correlation coefficients, test for ratio of variances - Chi-square test for goodness of fit and independence of attributes, 4LCONTENTS MODULE-1 Ll. 12. 13. 14. is 16. 17. 18, 19. u ] . Basic Propasitity THEORY Introduction 1 Introductory Terminologies fl Classical Definition of Probability 3 Theorems on Probability. 4 Axiomatic definition of probability 7 Conditional Probability 10 Independent Events u Baye’s Theorem 2 Illustrative Examples. R Exercises 26 Short Answer Questions 26 Answers 30 Long Answer Questions 31 Answers 37 Multiple Choice Questions 37 Answers 4s 24. 22 23. | 2 | ‘THe Bernoutu TRIAL Joint Independent Experiments 46 Bernoulli Trial (Finite & Infinite) 46 Ilustrative Examples. 50 Exercise 2 60 Answers 61 Discrete Ranvom VARIABLE Anp Its EXPECTATION Random Variable. 62 . Probability Mass Function and Discrete Distribution 63 . Distribution Function or Cumulative Distribution Function (For Continuous & Discrete) oF Expectation or Mean of a Discrete Random Variable or Variance and Standard Deviation ofa Random Variable 69x ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS -11A 3.6. Moments of a Random Variable 70 3.7. Illustrative Examples. n Exercises 82 1 Short Answer Questions 182 Answers 83 11 Long Answer Questions 84 ‘Answers 87 IIL Multiple Choice Questions 88 Answers 8 4 | Srectat Tyre oF Discrete DistrisuTion 4.1, Introduction 94 4.2. Binomial Distribution 95 4.4. Poisson Approximation to Binomial Distribution. 112 Exercises 17 1 Short Answer Questions 17 Answers 119 T_—_Long Answer Questions U9 Answers 124 II Multiple Choice Questions 125 Answers 127 : Discrete Jor Distaipurion & Cuepysiey's &] TsemALY 5.1. Introduction. 128 5.2. Joint Distribution of two random Variables 128 5.3. Independent Random Variables 130 5.4, ‘The Multinomiat Distribution 134 5.5. Joint Distribution Function 136 5.6. Sum of independent Random Variables. 137 5.7. Bivariate Expectation 139 5.8. ‘Theorems on Expectation 141 5.9. Covariance of two Variables 142 5.10, Correlation Coefficient between two Variables 143 5.11, Properties of Correlation Coefficients 148CONTENTS: xi 5.12. Variance of Sum of two Variables. 149, 5.13. Illustrative Examples. 151 Exercise 5 183 Answers 190 MODULE-II 6 Continuous Prosasitity DistRIBUTION 6.1. Introduction. 195 6.2. Probability Density Function (or density function 195 6.3. Expectation or Mean of a Continuous Random Variable 197 6.4, Variance and S.D. 198 6.5. Illustrative Examples. 200 Exercises 213 I Short Answer Questions 213 ‘Answers 215 TL Long Answer Questions 216 Answers, 219 II Multiple Choice Questions 221 ‘Answers 226 | Speciat Tyre or Continuous DistRIBUTION 7.1. Introductio 227 7.2. Normal Distribution. 227 7.3. Binomial Approximation to Normal Distribution. 232 7.4, Illustrative Examples. 234 7.5. Exponential Distribution. 243 7.6. Gamma Distribution. 247 7.7. Illustrative Examples. 251 Exercise 253 1 Short Answer Questions 253 ‘Answers 254 I Long Answer Questions 256 Answers 260 IIL Multiple Choice Questions 260 Answers 264ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS -IIA MODULE-Iit 8. Introduction. 8.2. Bivariate Distribution for continuous Variables. 833. 8.4. 8.5. 8.6. 87. 8.8. 8.9. Bivariate Probability Density function Properties of continuous Bivariate distribution, Marginal Distribution Conditional Density & Conditional Distribution Independent Random Variables Distribution of Sums and Quotients of random variables Illustrative Examples Exercise 8 Answers MODULE- IV Bivariate DistRiBUTIONS [3] (Continuous Variates) 265 265 266 266 267 268 270 2m 276 289 9 | Basic STATISTICS 9A. 9.2 93. 94. 95. 96. 97. 98 99. 9.10. 9 9.12 9.13. 9.14. 915. Statistics and its Related Terms295 Frequency Distribution. Mode. ‘Variance and Standard Deviation Significance of measure of central tendency and standard deviation. Moments. Central moments and Raw moments Relations between central moment and any moment ‘Skewness and Kurtosis Significance of Skewness Other Formula For finding Skewness Significance of Kurtosis Ilustrative Examples. Exercises 9 Answers MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTIONS Answers 296 298 301 305 306 310 310 3 312 313 315 317 317 318 332 343 344 351CONTENTS: 10.1. Introduction 10.2 Bivariate Data 10,3. Scatter Diagram 10.4. Correlation and its Different Types 10.5. Correlation Coefficient 10.6. Regression 10.7. Regression Line : 10.8 Properties of Regression Line and Coefficients. 10.9. Illustrative Examples 10.10, Rank Correlation 10.11. Rank Correlation when there is Tie Rank in any series 10,12. Illustrative Examples Exercise 10 1 Short Answers Questions Answers, 11 Long Answers Questions ‘Answers IIL Multiple Choice Questions Answers MODULE-V CorreLATION, REGRESSION fio] ee 352 352 353 356 356 370 371 374 316 383 384 386 391 391 393 394 401 402 an 11.1 Introduction 11.2. Least Square Regression Curve 11.3. Normal Equations 11.4. Finding best fitted straight lines fu] Curve Frrrinc py Metuop or Least SQUARE 412 413 414 ais 11.5. Finding best fitted straight line when (X, Y) assumes n pair of datas (X59 609) Oy Iq) 11.6. Finding best fitted Second Degree Parabola when (X, Y) assumes n pair of datas (1x,,),)s(x35)" XyrVud 4is 421xiv ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS- ILA ig best fitted Exponential Curve when (X, Y) assumes n pair of datas. (x,.3,)(%3,)°-°XyJq) 423 11.8. Finding best fitted Geometric Curve when (X, Y) assumes n pair of data (xy Ca) Orde) 424 Exercise 11 432 Answers 436 [2] Sampe.inc & rts DistRIBUTION 12.1. Population and Sample 440 12.2. Random Samy a“ 12.3. Sample Mean & Sample Variance 442 12.4. Sample Proportion and Population Proportion. 443 12.5. Sampling Distribution 443 12.6. Sampling Distribution of Sample Mean 446 12.7. Sampling Distribution of Sample Variance 449 12.8. Illustrative Examples. 451 Exercises 12 462 Answers 464 Multiple Choice Questions 465 Answers 472 [a3] TestinG OF SIGNIFICANCE 13.1, Introduction 473 13.2. Statistical Hypothesis 474 13.3. Test Statistic 475 13.4. Critical Region, Region of Acceptance and Level of Significance. 475 13.5. Type I Error and Type Il Error 477 13.6. Best Critical Region 479 Exercises 13 482 ‘Answers 482 Multiple Choice Questions 483 Answers 487CONTENTS: w Lance Sampue Test Or SiGniricance 14.1. Introduction 488 14.2. Test for Single Mean 488 14.3. Test of Single Proportion 495 14.4. Test of Single Standard Deviation 499 14.5. Difference of Mean ( or Test of equality of means) 301 146, Illustrative Examples 502, 14.7. Test for Difference of Proportions 503 14.8 Hlustratve Examples 508 14.9 Test for difference of standard deviations 508 14.10 . IMlustrative Examples 508 Exercise 14 509 1 Short Answers Questions 509 Answers Su Il Long Answers Questions 312 Answers S18, MODULE-VI SmaLt Sampue Test oF SIGNIFICANCE 15.1, Introduction S19 15.2. Test for single Means S19 15.3. Test for Difference of Mean (Test of equality of means) 525 15.4, Test for a specified Correlation Coefficient 530 15.5. Test For Difference of Correlation Coefficient $32 15.6. Test for Ratio of Variances (or, equality of two s.d) 534 15.7. chi-square test for Goodness of Fit 937 15.8. Illustrative Examples 538 15.9, Test for Independence of Attributes 546 15.10. Illustrative Examples 549 Exercise 15 551 Answers, 562 STASTICAL TABLES 564 INDEX 573MODULE-1 ‘if Basic PRroBasiLiry THEORY 1.1, Introduetion : In Science and Technology we have to be concerned with every phenomena whose future behaviour is not predictable in a deterministic fashion. We have to depend on ‘Chance’ in every field. In theory of probability we are very much concemed with ‘Chance’. In fact ‘Probability’ is nothing but a numerical measurement of this *Chance’ Future can be guessed if this measurement is deduced. In this chapter ‘we are going to deal with this measurement ‘Probability’. Conception on Set-theory and Combinatorics Theory are the only prerequisistes for this chapter. 1.2, Introductory Terminologies : Random Experiment : An experiment or observation which may be repeated a large number of times under very nearly identical conditions and the possible outcome of any particular observation is unpredictable but all possible outcomes can be described prior to its performance, is known as Random Experiment. For example, the experiment of tossing a coin is a random experiment, as the possible outcomes are ‘tails’ or *heads” but the outcome of a particular tossing cannot be predicted. Sample Points/ Event Points. ‘The outcomes of a random experiment are called sample points or event points. For example, the sample points in the experiment ‘tossing a coin’ are Head and Tail, in symbol H and 7. Sample Space/Event Space. The set of all sample points i.e. the set of all possible outcomes of a Random Experiment is called the sample space. It is denoted by S. For example if we throw two coins once, then $= {HH, HT, TH, TT}; if we roll a die once, we have $= {1,2,3,4,5,6} as the event space. event. Any subset of the sample space S of a random experiment is called an Event. For example, in the experiment of ‘throwing two coins’, A={TH, HT} is an event because Ac S EM2Ad g2 ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS- IIA, Certain Event. Since every set is a subset of itself, so the sample space is a subset of itself. So this is an event. This event is called a certain event. \Unipossible Event. An event that contains no sample points is called impossible event. It is denoted by . For example in the experiment “throwing a die" the event ‘Face 7° = \Complementary Event. For any event 4, there is an event containing all the sample points in the sample space which are not in A. This event is called the complementary event of 4 and is denoted by 4’ or A or A®. Obviously A= "Not 4’. For example, if A={7H, HT} where S={HH,TT,TH, HT}, then A={HH,TT}. Note. 5=4:8=5;(A)=A Simultaneous Occurence of two Events. Let 4, and Ay be two events. Then the set A, © Az represents the simultaneous occurence of the two events 4, and 4s. This event is also denoted by 44,. For example, in the experiment ‘rolling a die’ let 4,= “Even face’ 4, =‘Multiple of three’, Then 4,4; ={6} is the event whose occurence shows the simultaneous occurence of 4, and 4. At least one of Two Events. Let 4 and Ay be two events. Then the set 4; U 4p represents ‘at least one of 4, and Ay". This event is also denoted by 4, + 42. For example, in the experiment rolling a die let 4, =Even face = {2.4.6}, 4; = Multiple of three = {3,6}. Then 4,U 4; ={2,4,6,3} is the event whose occurence shows the Occurence of at least one of n face’ and ‘Multiple of 3" ial or Mutually Exclusive (m.e) Events. If two events 4\, A; have no common sample points ie. if 4-4: = 4, they are called ‘Mutually Exclusive Events. For example, in a previous example if 4, ={14H, TT} 4,={HT, TH}, then A, > A, =. So, A, and Az are mutually exclusive events, Two me events cannot occur simultaneously.| BASIC PROBABILITY THEORY 3 “Pairwise Disjoint Events. Let 4\, 4),--, 4, be m number of events. Events 4,(i=1,2,--+,n) are said to be pairwise disjoint if no two of them have any common event points ie. if 4,04, = 4,1 # jand i, j=1,2,--,n. | Exhaustive Events. Two or more events are said to be exhaustive if | at least one of them neccessarily occurs or in other words the events AiyAay'*+ 7 ane exhaustive if Ay U Ay Udy oes 1S. For example, in the experiment of throwing two coins once, the events 'HH}, A; ={TT} and A; ={HT, TH} are exhaustive, eremer itary or Simple Event. An event containing exactly one sample point is called Elementary Event. For example, 4, ={2}, 4: ={5}, 4; = {3} etc are simple event of an | experiment of rolling adie. = : Composite Event. The event which can be decomposed into simple events i.e. which can be expressed as union of two or more simple events | is called Composite Event. } For example, in the experiment of ‘rolling a die’ 4 ={2,3,4}, A, = {I, 5} etc are composite events. \Equally Likely Sample Points. The sample points of a sample space are said to be equally likely if one of them may not be expected rather than the other. \AS. Classical Definition of Probability. Let us suppose that a random experiment £ is such that its sample space S contains a finite number n($) of sample points, all of which are equally likely. Then the probability of an event A which contains (A) sample points, is defined by a llustration. A perfect die is rolled once and observed whether an odd number appears. If A denotes this event, then 4 = {1, 3,5} and the sample space S={1,2,3,4,5,6}ws) 6 2 This tells that chance of occuring ‘odd face’ is one per two throws. Criticism of Classical Definition, (i) To define the probability, firstly we presumes that the sample points are equally likely which means equally probable i.e, probability of each sample point is same. So this definition is circular. Gi)_This defintion does not provide any criterion of deciding whether the possible outcomes of an experiment are equally likely. (iil) In many experiments, the no. of possible outcomes is infinite and 0 this defintion is not suitable in those cases. Gv) This definition can be used only in very simple and unimportant cases like games of chance. (v)_In some complicated problems, the calculation of possible Outcomes and favourable cases are difficult, for example the sex of a newly born child and the throw of an untrue coin, 1.4. Theorems on Probability. Some important properties of Probability are presented as the following Proofs are given considering the Frequency definition. 1. OS P(A)<1 for any event A. Proof: Let a random experiment E be repeated n times under identical | | | conditions and A be an event which occurs n(A) times. Then we have OSn(A) Ay = AU A ~ Ay), where Aj, Ap — Ay become me. c. P(Ag)= P(A) + (Aa ~ Ai) < P(An— Ai) = P42) P(A)‘SIC PROBABILITY THEORY ? as Axiomatic definition of probability. (UEB.U-Tech 2005 } ‘Let E be a random experiment and S be its sample space ; y be the class of all events (ie., subsets of S). Let P be a function from to the set of all real numbers satisfying the following axioms : Axiom 1. P(A) 0, for every event 4 in 5 Axiom Il, P(S)=1. Axiom IIL. If A\, 4a,-~ be a finite or infinite sequence of pairwise ‘mutually exclusive events, then P(A, U Ap >) = P(A) + Pl Aa) +> : Then for any event 4 the real number P(A) is called its probability.) ‘The function P: > R is called Probability Function, ‘The collection {S, Z, P} is called a Probability Space of the event E. Ilustration, Let a biased coin be tossed. ‘The event space S={H, T}. Ithas four events {H},{7} and S itself. Here D={t#)}, (7}.4,S} We define P: > R such that P(H)=1/3, P(T)=2/3, P()=0, PHT} =1 Then we see P(4)>0 for all event 4 i.e., Axiom / is satisfied. P(S)= P({HT})=1 i.c., Axiom II is satisfied. Consider the two me. events {H} and {7}. Then {H}U{T}={H.7} + Pye {T= P(H7}) ie, Axiom IIT is satisfied. ‘Thus this function P represents probability. In particular we can say probability of Head is All the Theorems which were deduced for the Frequency definition of probability can be deduced for Axiomatic definition also. Some of thems are shown in the next page.8 ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS- A. Ee Some Deductions from the Axioms : _DFor any Ac S, P(A) $1 Let A=S—A. Then 4,2 ‘are mutually exclusive and AU A=S. + Pav a)= POS) or, P(A)+ P(A)=1, by Axiom II and IIT or, P(A)=1- P(A) ~ i ‘Again by axiom 1, P(4) 20 Hence, P(A)=1- P(A) s1 (iy P(9)=0 Since § =5. So from (1) P(g) =1~ P(8)=1- P(S)=1-1 by Axiom (I) 4 oe Gil) For any two events 4,4: c$ and Ay c Ar. We have P(4,)< P(42) and P(s ~ A) = P(42)~ PCA) Since Ay C Ay, Ay = Ai U(42 - 4i)- Also since 4; and 4;~ 4, are mutually exclusive, so by Axiom III, we have, P(Aa)= P(Ai)+ P(A ~ Ai) 2 PAs — Ai) = P( 4a) P(A) By Axiom, P(A: -4))20. <. P(42)- P(A) 20 ie, P(d2)2 P(A). (iv) (Boole’s inequality) For m events Ai. zy"~"v4y P(A Ay eA) S P(A) + PAD) 400+ PCA) ies Palas PUM) Proof: For n=1, the theorem is obviously true. We have Pld, a) PA) + P42) P)BASIC PROBABILITY THEORY ° 2 PAV A)S P(A)+ P(A) [- P(A, Ay) 20] = ‘Thus the theorem is true for m=2. Let the theorem holds for n=. » AOa)sA4) == 2) Now (GA) dns} =H{ GA) A -(G4) >A] w Aa)eAe)omis an = EPA) + Plan), sie ((Ga)ranfze -Ea) » AU) Ae = MA)es An B)= P(A)P(B) Hence the theorem. Note : When P(A™B)+ P(A): P(B), the events A and B are said to be dependent, \-Mutually Independent Events. The m events Ay, Az,-~ dy are said to be mutually independent if the following conditions are satisfied P(A, Ay) = P(A) P(4;) for all i j; i, 7 =1,2,+ P(A, 0.4; 0 Ae) = P(A:)P(4y) PAs) for all i# jk P(A, AL O07 Ay) = P(A) P( An)“ PCA) | Pairwise Independent Events : The n events 4), A2,-~, 4, are said | to be pairwise independent if | P(A.OA)) = P(A) P(A)) forall §# 5 ij Mlustrations. Let one card be drawn from a full pack. A= ‘spade’, B= King’, Then (8/4) = 204) 1 Qo fA) 13" in (Be Asin 0) = 2) no Thus P(B/A)= P(B). So in this experiment *king’ and ‘spade’ are independent,2 ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS-IA fs * 1.8. Baye’s Theorem. If 4), 4,,--, 4, be a given set of n pairwise mutually exclusive and exhaustive events then for any event A where P(A) #0 APL A) = PAs) P(A) A) + PCAs) PCA) Aa) +--+ PCAy)PCA/Ay) = £4) P(4/A) Vt AAO) f= Len [WB.U-Tech.2008} Proof : Beyond the scope of the book Illustration. There are three urns. First urn contains 3 red, 4 black balls 5 Second urn contains 6 black, 2 red balls ; third urn contains 3 black balls and 5 red balls. One urn is chosen and then a ball is drawn from the um. Let 4, ="Ist um is chosen’ 4, ='2nd um is chosen’ 4s = 3rd um is chosen ; 4= The ball is red. According to Baye’s theorem PA) = P(A) PALA,)+ Pls) PCA/ Aa) + PCAs)PCA/ As) 301 5B a8 24 168 oa On the other hand the probability that the 3rd urn was chosen supposing that the ball is red = P(4y/4) = PUA) AlAs) Aa) ¢ 3 5 168 35 TB Ba aT 7S 168 1.9. Illustrative Examples. Example 1, What is the chance that a leap year selected at random will contain 53 wednesdays ? [WB.U.Tech 2002] A leap year contains 366 days that is 52 full weeks and two days extra The extra two days will be either (i) Sunday, Monday or (ii) Monday, Tuesday or (iii) Tuesday, Wednesday or (iv) Wednesday, Thursday or (v) ‘Thursday, Friday or (vi) Friday, Saturday or (vii) Saturday, Sunday. eBASIC PROBABILITY THEORY : B So a leap year will contain 53 Wednesdays if one of the two extra days is Wednesday. Therefore out of the above seven cases two are favourable. 2 Henge the required probability is > Exgfple 2. The integers x and y are chosen at random with flacement from nine natural numbers 1, 2, .... + « 8 9. Find the probability that (x*-y*) is divisible by 2. x2-y? =(x-y)(x+y) will be divisible by 2 iff x,y are either both even of both odd, Now two even numbers can be chosen from {1,2,--,9} with replacement in 44 ways. Similarly both odd number can be selected in 5x5 ways, So the total no. of favourable cases is 16425=41 ‘Again two integers x, y can be chosen at random with replacement from {1,2,.9} is 9x9=81 at Hence the required probability is 5. _ Eximple 3. Given P(A)= (a) find the values of the following probabilities 77), PAB), A/a), PAB), P(A B), (Av 8) (b) State whether the events A and B are (i) mutially exclusive (ii) exhaustive (iti) equally likely (iv) independent. (@) Aa)=1-P(A)=1-5=5 P(AUB) = P(A)+ P(B)— (AB) = 1 aan 1() = P((s- 4} = P(se - 48) P(B- 4B) = P(B)- (48) = 1-P(AUB)= (3B) (Fu) = PCa) + P(B)- (84 ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS -IIA | ———.. $$ aoX~—Y( (©) (i) No ; because P(43) #0, ie, ANBeO 4 1 (i) No ; because (AU B)=—-#1, ie, AUB eS 1 (iii) No; because Ad)=3,P(8)= ie, P(A) P(B) iv) No ; because (48) + P(A)-P(2), here PAB) =1 bt (a)-r(0)=1. Example 4, In an examination 30% of the students failed in Physics, 25% in Mathematics and 12% in both Physics and Mathematics. A student is t selected at random. Find the probability that (i) the student has failed in i Physics, if it is known that he has failed in Mathematics. (i) the student has failed at least one of the two subjects (iil) the student has passed at least one of the two subjects. (iv) the student has passed in Mathematics if he failed in Physics, Let A and B denote the events a student failed in Physics” and “a tu student failed in Mathematics” respectively. Then P(A)=0:30, P(B)=0-25, PAB) =0-12 Now (i) probability that a student has failed in Physics if it is known that he has failed in Mathematics is P(4/B)= Pa) 5 7 048 (Gi) the probability that a student has failed at least one of the subjects is P(A B)= A)+ P(B)—P(AMB) =0.3040-25-0-12 =0-43, f ii) student passed in Mathematics, 3 = he passed in Physics. ‘Then the probability that the student has pissed at least one of the subject is P(AUB)=1- P(AUB) =1- PAB) [ by D* Morgans law] =1-0-12 =0-88 and (iv) the probability that the student has passed in Mathematics if he failed in Physics is o (48) AFL) =1— Pa 1-2BASIC PROBABILITY THEORY 1s Example 5. Two urs contain respectively 2 red, 5 black, 7 green and 1 red, 4 black, 9 green balls. One ball is drawn from each urn. Find the probability that both the balls are of the same colour. Let 4), 42, é be the event that both drawn balls are red, black and green respectively. ‘Then the required event is. 4, UA, U 4). Where 4\,Ay,4y are pairwise exclusive, “P(A AU As) = PCA) + Pda) + PCAs) eee 196 196 20 63 _ 85 & So the required probability is 755+756* 75g 196 Example 6. Two cards are drawn from a well-shuffled pack. Find the probability that at least one of them is diamond. Let A be the event that at least one of the drawn cards is diamond. ‘Then A be the event that the drawn cards is not diamond. ood. °C, 1s So, the required probability is 37 (peer Bo cas eset seas et scetnney Sk of 02 playing cards. Find the probability that it is (i) an ace (ii) @ heart (iii) a nine or a club (iv) neither a spade nor a ten. Let H, D, C, and S be the event that the drawn balls are hearts, diamonds, clubs and spades respectively. Also let us use the numbers 1, 2, 3, .» 10 for ace, two, three, .. ten respectively. see Then (i) P (an ace) = m1) = eb = Sak (ii) P (a heart) = PH) =16 ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS TIA (iii) P Canine or a club) = PVC) = P(9)+ P(C)- P90) 1G, PG_ 1 “Rg Bq $2 52 (iv) P (ncither a spade nor a ten) = Ais a0) = Pl(suro) =1-{P(S)+ P(10) = P(S10}} --(B+3 “ ) r 52 52 52, Example 8. Two dice are thrown n times in succession. What is the probability of obtaining double six at least once.Hence find the minimums Plumber of throws so that the probability of obtaining double six at least nce is tess than Let A be the event that there is at least once double six in throws of two dice in succession. Then 4 be the event that there is no double six inn throws of two dice. So Aa)e(38) reay=1-r(@)= So the required probability is (2) Again when (4) <> then (3) + 3sy 1 35) or, (8) >} os mo 32 > 082 log? ara pana ES or, Hence the minimum number of throws is 25. \ Example 9. Show that the probability of occurrence of only one of the events A and B is P(4)+P(B)-2P(48). [ W.B.U.Tech 2006} Let C be the event of occurence of only one of the events A and B.BASIC PROBABILITY THEORY Then c=(4uB)-(4nB) =(4~B)U(B-4) | C)=P(A-B)+ P(B- A) ... (1) 1 [+ A=Band B- A are disjoint] Now A=(4~B)+ AB + Pld)= (AB) + A(4B) +. PlA=B)= P(A) PAB) .. (@) ACADEMY OF TECHNOL@GY =(1- P(A) (a) = (A) PB). | «Hand Fare independent, (ii) Again 44.8 and AmB are mutually exclusive and (Aaa)u(AnB)=4 s P(A)= P(A B)+ (ANB) ! i a t Again B=(B—4)+ 4B LEY ok UIRP ORY gay 1g (A) 8-a)e 40) wm 249296 ool 88: +: P(B~A)= (a) P(4B) ~@ In virtue of (1), (2), and (3) we get 7 | jose) = P(A) rab) P(8)~P(48) = Ps )-274 48) ple 10. If A and B are independent events, then show that the 7 following pairs are independent : (i) 4 and B (WB.U.Tech 2002,2005,2007\ 5 | (ii) Aand B (iii) A and B. Since A and B are independent, so : Hana) AAR) =) 7 () Now P(4qB)= P(4U8), by D’ Morgans law =1- (Avs) =1-[P(4)+ (8) P(A) [ | =1- PA) P(B)+ AB) =1- PA)-P(B)+ (4) (BY by (1) 2 PCAOB) = P(A) (4B) = PA)- P(A) P(B) by (1) = PLAKI- PCB) = P(4)PLB) <. A and B are independent, eM2a21 ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS -I1A ee (ii) Taking B = (40> 8)u(A.), we can prove the result as (i) Example 1). If A, B, C be mutually independent events, then prove that (i) A and B+C are independent [W.B.U. Tech 2003] (ii) 7,5,C are mutually independent i) P{A{B+O} = P(AB+ AC) = P(AB)+ PCAC) P(ABC) = HAVA B)+AAAQ-PAVABC) [ye 4,8,Care mutually independent) = ana) +P(C)— PBC] = 4)AB+C) Hence A and B+, are independent. (ii) Now 4, B are independent as 4, B are independent (by previous example), Similarly B,C and C,A are independent. Also since A and B+C are independent so Zand B+C ie, A and BC are independent I P{a(BC)} = (4) (BC) = H(A) (8) AC) Hence 7,3, are mutually independent. Example 12. The face cards are removed from a pack of $2 cards. Then 4 cards are drawn one by one from the remaining 40 cards. What is the probability that 4 cards belong to different suits and different denomination. 4 cards can be drawn out of 40 cards one by one is 40x 39x38x37 ways. So the total numbers of possible outcomes is 4039 *38%37 Now the number of ways in which 4 cards belong to different suits and different denominators is. 9C\x°Cx8C)x7C) =109x8x7 So the total number of favourable cases is 10x9 x87 _ 1x9 «8x7 Hence the required Prob. = 49,39 %38%37 Example 15. A pack of 2n cards, n of which are red and another n are black. It is divided into two equal parts and a card is drawn from each, Find the probability that the cards drawn are of the same colour. Let 2n cards be divided into such way that first part contains k red cards and (nk) black cards where k= 1,2,--,n—1, Then the 2nd part contains (n—B) red cards and & black cards,and that of red nn ‘So the probability for both the drawn cards are of the same colour is n-k kk n-k nnn n Hence the required probability eo (oS -¥r) a oe Example 14. An um contains a white and b black balls, from which k balls are drawn one by one and they laid aside without noticeing their colours. Then one more ball is drawn. Find the probability that it is white. Here the total number of cases of drawing (+1) balls from (a +b)ballsis (a+b)(a+b~1)---(a+b-R). Since the last drawn ball shall be white, we choose one white ball from a white balls in a ways. Then & balls can be drawn from the rest (a + b-1) balls is (a+6-1)(a+5-2)---(a+b—R)ways. So the total number of favourable cases in which the last drawn ball is white in (k+1) drawn is (a+b-1)(a+b-2)--(a+b-R)a. ‘Hence the required probability _(a+b-1a+b-2)--(a+b-k)-a ~~ (a+b\a+b-1)(a+b-k) a+b" Example 15. 15 new students are to be evenly distributed among 3 classes. Suppose that there are 3 whiz-kids among the fifteen. What is the probability that each class gets one whiz-kid and one class gets them all? 15 students can be evenly distributed among 3 classes in "SC, x!C,xSCyways =———————— JNGINEERING MATHEMATICS 114 posite 2 00 So the total number of distributions is (95 i (5) y (ji) We can allot one whiz-kid to each of three classes in 3! ways. Then the ter 12 students an be evenly distributed among 3 asses in. . (a2)! AO pPC x O.MAYS = (ys ways. So the probability that each class gets one whiz-kid is 2 (ay 25 Gar 8 ey (ii) We can allot all the rest 12 students in three whiz-kids to one class in 3.ways and the meget. gw successively drawn the first ball is seen is also white ? ; Let A, be the event thatthe first drawn ball is : event tha the second drawn ball is white. Then Ay t that the both drawn ball is white. 4 a P(A, 42)= 79% 97 18 \ Alo P(A) == 5°BASIC PROBABILITY THEORY mn hen eto cata P(A,OA) _ 35 1 P(A2/Ai) tA). the required probability ee dD, oa aah 3 red balls and % white, 7 red balls. An urn is chosen at random and a ball ‘is drawn from it. Find the probability that the ball is white. If the ball drawn is white, what is the probability that it is from the first urn ? Let A,, A, be the event that the ball is drawn from the first and second um respectively. Clearly the events A,,A, are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events. 1 P(A) = P(A) = Also let A be the event that the drawn ball is white. Then we have PArA)=4, P(AIA,) == Now P(A) = P(A,)-P(A/A,)+P(Aa)-P(4/A,) 1 4, oe 3 ati “9T* 930 a0" 5 So he probability thatthe drawn bal is white is a on ta Berea Seer Ptayja)= Aaa) at. 2. 140 ‘So the prob. that the white ball is drawn from the first urn is > 40 61° Example 18, Two ums contain respectively 5 white, 7 black balls and 4 white,2 black balls. One of the urns is selected by the toss of a fair coin ‘and then 2 balls are drawn without replacement from the selected urn. If both balls drawn are white, what is the probability that the first urn is selected ? pont2 ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS-11A Let Aj, A, be the event that the ball is drawn from the first and second uum respectively. Then as the umn is chosen by coin-tossing, so we have P(A,)= P(A) ‘Now let 4 be the event that the drawn two balls are white, Then Playa.) = :, By Baye’s Theorem 1 A)= PAA A) + PUAL}A/AL) ol 68a “2'3372'5 330 Again by Baye’s theorem, the required probability Example 19. A speaks the truth 3 out of 4 times and B 7 times out of 10. ‘They agree in their statement that from a bag contaning 6 balls of different colours a white ball has been drawn, Find the probability that the statement is true. Let A,and A, be the events that the joint statement of A and B is ‘true and false respectively Tren P(A,)=2, Pla, Now let beth event dat both A and 8 agreed in their statement Then P(X/A\)= | elBASIC PROBABILITY THEORY Pex/a,)=( To00 + P(X) = P(A,): P(X/A,) + PlAa)-P(X/A,) 1,21 6 3 7 z 9 “aa i ie 640 "6 * i000 ~ 80 400 ~ 100 Hence the probability of the statement being true is P(A,)P(X/A;) 7 sal iar ‘ eee. 2» % 100 Example 20, Assuming that each child is as likely to be a boy as it is to bea girl, what is the conditional probability that in a family of two children both are boys, given that (i) the older child is a boy (ii) at least one of the children is a boy ? Let A, and A,be the event that the older child is a boy and the younger child is a boy (by Baye’s theorem) 1 } ‘Then Pl4i)=PlAs)=5 Also A, U Ay = at least one of the children is a boy and A, A, = both children are boys. Since A,, A, are independent, lia Pl = P(4,)P(A,)=2-2=2 (44d) = P(A )Pl42)=5-3=5 P(A, U Az) = P(Ay) + P(Ag) ~ P(A, Ap) i Thus the probability that both children are boys given that the older is a boy is , ra P(A, AA) = Oe a “4 wierr) ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS - 1A, (ii) The probability that both the children are boys, given that at least one of them is a boy, is P(A, A2)/(Ar Aad} i Pili) (a, Va) P(A, CA) pasaph 21, Ina bolt factory, machines A, B and C manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the total oftheir output. 5%, 4% and 2% are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. What are the probability that it was manufactured by machines A, B and C? [W.B.U-Tech 2003] Let X,,Xq and X, be the events that a bolt is manufactured by 4, B and C respectively and X be the event that a bolt is defective. Then 25 1 357 40 2 rex) = 5-1, ma) = 3, Pen, - =? 4 . a PURI) 705 20 ; 1 PUK.) = sho = ge. PURI) = B= ll 3 POE) = POR)PCRLR) + PR P + PRP) =F By nian tare oor siberian | ‘Then by Baye’s theorem, we have ) = POSYPUXIA:) PIX) PUG /X 4g. 2000 Similrty P(X,/X)= 2, P(K,/X) = So, the required probability that defective bolt was manufactured by 25 28 16 m machines 18,C are G5» G5> gg Tespectivey.BASIC PROBABILITY THEORY 2s Example 22. An um contains 10 white and 3 black balls, while another um 3 white and 5 black balls. Two balls are drawn from the first urn and put into the second am and then 2 ball is drawn from the latter. What is the probability that it is a white ball ? Let 4,B,C bé the events that the drawn two balls from the first unr are both white, both black and one white and one black respectively. Then MC, 10x9 15 Fe BQ, 13x12 26 5, -.8xan (B) = 422 = ake ne SC, 18x12 26 "OC, 5 ‘When two balls are transferred into the 2nd arn, it will contain either 5 white, 5 black balls. or, 3 white, 7 black balls or 4 white and 6 black balls: according to the events 4,B,C respectively. Let W denote the event of drawing a white ball from the second urn. Then P(W/ A) == =} paw p)= > 10 2 10 2 PW/C)= So the required probability, PIW)= P(A)- PW! A) + P(B)P(W/B) +P(C)- PWC) gee ia ee ee a, $26 2°3610°18 5 260 130° Example 23. A student has to answer a multiple choice question with 5 alternatives. What is the probability that the student know the answer, given that he answered it correctly. Let B, and B, be the events that the student knew right answer and guesses the right answer respectively. Also let A be event that he getstheright answer. Again let p be the probability that he knew the corrcet answer. P(B,)= p.P(By)=1-p26 ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS - HA Also P(A/B,)=1,P(A/B,) By Baye's theorem, P(B,)P(AIB,) P(B,)P(A/ B,)+ P(By)P(A/ Bo) p-1 p-l+(l~p)t P(B,/ A) = 5p. ap+i EXERCISES fia] Stor ANSWER QUESTIONS 1. Twenty balls in an umn are numbered 1 through 20. A blind folded contestant draws five balls from the win, with the order of the draw recorded. What is the probability that the number 3 ball was selected ? 1% [Hints : The required probability = aa =i } s 2. Prove that for any two events A,B with BcA,P(AnB) = P(A)-P(B). [Hints ; As Bc A, so B and AB are disjoint and BU(AnB)=A P(B)U P(ANB) = P(A) J 3. If p,,p2.-- py are the probabilities that n certain events happen, then find the probability that at least one of these events must happen. [Hints : The probabilities of their non-happening are 1 pys1- pyy-1- p, « So the probability of all of these failing is (1 pi) Pa) Pa) Hence the chance is which at least one of these events must happen is 1-(1~ Py, A~ Pa)---(0- Pp)BASIC PROBABILITY THEORY 7 4. For two events A,,A, let P(A, P(A, VA,) = 06 (i) Find p so that A, and A, are independent events (ii) For what value of p.the events A, and A, are mutually exclusive. [Hints : P(A, 9.A,) = P(A) +P(A,)— P(A, UA) = p-02. () P(A, A.) = P(A,)-P(A2) => px04 = p-02 14,P(4y) =p and = px06=02 spat a (i) P(A, VA,)=0= p=02)] S. Twourns contain 4 white, 6 blue and 4 white, 5 blue balls respectively. ‘One of the urns is selected at random and a ball is drawn from it. Find the probability that the drawn ball is white. [Hints ; P(w) = P(A,)-P(w/ A,)+ P(Az)-P(w! Ay) 14,12. “Tm 23 i 5 6 UF P(A)=2,P(A+B)=8, find P(AB). 6 (Hints: P(AB) =1~ P(A +B) = 7. If P(A/B)=1, then prove that P(ABC) = P(BC) [Hints : P(A/B) =1 => P(AB) = P(B) P(ABC) = P(AB)-P(C/ AB) = P(B)-P(C/B) = P(BC)) 51 J 6 6 8. If A and B are events with Play=3, P(B)=3 a and P (4vB)=2, find P(A / B),P(B/ A). Are A and B independent ? 9. For any two event A,,Ay prove that IA) +A(A,)<1+7(4,4,)ey ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS-1A 10. If 4,B are two events with P(A)=04,P(B)=03 and PAM B)=02, find AA' 8). (WV.B.U-Tech 2006 M 302) (Hints: P(AU B) = 04+ 03-0.2 = 05 . P(ASnB)= P(ANB)-P(A)=05-0.4=01) 1. If two perfect coins are tossed simultaneously find the probability of getting at least one head. 12. Out of 120 tickets numbered consecutively from 1 to 120, one ticket is drawn at random. Find the probability of getting a multiple of 5. 13. If 4, B, C are equally likely, mutually exclusive and exhaustive then find P(A). 14, Find the probability of getting at least one ‘Five’ from 3 throws of a perfect die. 15. Two events A and B are such that P(A) = (14, P(AUB)=07 and P(B) =x. For what values of x are A and B (i) mutually exclusive (ii) independent ? 16.Find the probability that there would be two tail if four unbiased coins are tossed. 17.Three balls are drawn at random from a box containing 6 red and 4 black balls. What isthe probability that the two balls are red and one is black? 18.Box A contains 3 black balls and 3 red, box B contains 6 black balls and 4 red. If a ball is randomly selected from each box, find the probability thatthe balls will be of same colour ? 19.5 cards are drawn from a pack of 52 well-shuffled cards. Find the probability that 4 are aces and | is a king, 20.Five persons X, ¥ Z, W, S speak at a seminar-lecture. What is the probability that X speaks immediately before Y ? 21.The nine digits 1, 2, 3 , 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 are arranged in random ‘order to form a nine-digit number. Find the probability that 1, 2, and 3 ‘appear as neighbours in the order mentioned. 22.Four dices are rolled. What is the chance of obtaining a sum of 18? 23, What is the probability of an odd sum when two dice are thrown ? [Hints : The required Probability "FBASIC PROBABILITY THEORY 29 ——— 24. There are four persons in a room, Find the probability that () all, of them have different birthdays (ii) at least 2 of them have the same birthday (iii) exactly 2 of them have the same birthday. (1. year = 365 days) 28.There are 20 people. Find the probability that among the 12 months in the year there are 4 months containing exactly 2 birthdays and 4 containing exactly 3 birthdays ? 26. 1F Rani=1AB=2 and PiA)=1 find AUB AA OB’), P(A‘ UBS) and P(AMB'). 27,What isthe chance that a non-leap year should have 53 sundays ? [Hint. Same as Ex-1] 28. X and Y stand in a line at random with 10 other people. What is ‘the prob, that there are 3 people between X and Y. 29. Prove that the probability of obtaining six at least once in 4 throws 1 with adie is slightly greater than >. ° {Hints : The required Prot 1-(3 =052>2 30, What is the probability that a bridge ‘will contain at least one ace? F <6, (Hints: 1--5-™ = 0.696] Cis 31.Prove that for any two events A, B (i) P(A+B) =1- P(B)+ P(AB) (ii) P(AB) = P(A)- P(AB) (ii) P(AMB) < P(A) + P(B) (iv) P(AUB)2 P(A) (vi) P(A/B)s P(A)! P(B) (vii) P(A/ B) =1- P(A/B) (viii) P(A)/ P(B) = P(A/ B)/P(B/ A).30 ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS-11A, Blt the two evens 4 and B are independent and A(B)=2, (a) =2, | find AAUB),A/B)and P(AMB). 33. Prove that if A and B are mutually exclusive events and P(A) #0, P(B)+ 0, then A and B are not ‘omar 34. iv P(auB)=2, P(anB)=1 , find P(B) and P(A) if E P(AIB)==. 35. If PGsrtm, show that P(A B)> P(B/A). 36, For any three events 4, B, C, prove that (i) P((A+B)/C) = P(A/C)+ P(B/C)- P(AB/C) (iy P(AB/C) + P(AB/C) = P(4/C) [Hints : (i) P(AC + BC) = P(AC) + P(BC)~ P(ABC) . P(AC+BC)_P(AC) | P(BC)_P(ABC) “RE. Pe) PG AC) ©. P(A+B)/C] = P(A/C)+ P(B/C)- P(AB/C) (ii) P(AB/C)+ P(ABIC) = AAO) Re _ P(ABC)+ P(ABC) _ P(AC) (Al AG, Hey PN) ANSWERS, £ gf 22 &yi wt sy LZ 6% S& FgNowg we 1.5 1. -(8) 15. (i) 0.3, (i) 0.5 16.2 " i 18, 3 19. 4/°C, 1 1 3 2. 5 Uy SB BeBASIC PROBABILITY THEORY mu 6x 364 x 363 24. (1) 0.984, (ii) 0.016, (365)" 25. 1.0604 x 10 7 £1 26. 30° 30°3"6 1 21.5 28. 4/33 30. 0-696 7 32. 13/15, 18,5 34. 13, 35 hha] Lone ANSWER QuESTIONS 1. For a certain binary communication channel, probability that a trasmitted '0' is received as a'0'is 0.95 and the probability that a transmitted "I's received as'I' is 0.90. If the probability that a '0' is transmitted is 0.4, find the probability that (ais received. (i) a1 was transmitted given that a 'I' was received. (Hims : A the event of transmitted 'I' A, = the event of transmitted ‘0! A, = the event of receiving " Ay = the event of receiving “ (® P(A,)=P(A,)- P(Ap! A,) + P(A,)P(42/ Ai) = 0.6 «0.9 +04 x 05 = 0.56- ' P(A))P(Aa/ A, 2 (8) (a1 a,) = PA zy 2. Two fair dice had two of their sides painted red, two painted black,one painted yellow and the other painted white. When this pair of dice are rolled, what is the probability that both land on the same colour ? 3. From an urn containing a white and b black balls, balls are successively drawn without replacement until only those of the same colour are left. Prove that the probability that the balls left are white is a arb32 ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS-1A 4. Abag contains 5 white and 4 black balls. 1f3 balls are drawn at random, ‘what are the probabilities ofthe following (i) 2 of them are white i) at most one of them is white (iii) at test two are white. [.B.U-Tech 2007] [Hints : (i) n(A) =" Cy x*C, (ii) n(A) =" C, x* 0, +* C, Gil) °C, x* C, 4° Cy) 5. The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is 23, and the probability that he will not get an electri contract 59. Ifthe probability of getting atleast one contract is 4/5, what isthe probability that he wall get bothe the contracts? 6. From the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, .. .. 999, 1000 one number is drawn at random, Find the probability that the number is multiple of (i) 12 and 18 ii) 12 oF 18 7. A box contains 5 defective and 10 non-defective lamps. 8 lamps are drawn at random in succession without replacement. What is the probability that the 8th lamp is the Sth defective? [ #.B.U. Tech 2005,2007,2008) 8C4x!°C, x7! Todd x13 12x11 x10%9%8 ! 8. Two sets of candidates are competing for the position of the Board of Directors of a company. The probabilities that the first and second sets will win are 0,6 and 0.4 respectively. If the first set wins, the probability of introducing a new product is 0.8, and the corresponding probability if the second set wins is 0.3. What is the probability that the new product will be introduced? [Hints : 9. An urn contains 2 white and 2 black balls. Balls are drawn successively at random without replacement. What is the probability that a black ball appears (i) for the first time in the 3rd drawing (i) for the 2nd time in the 4th drawing? 10. A packet of 10 electronic components is known to include 3 defectives. If 4 components are randomly chosen and tested, what is the probability of finding among them not more than one defective ?BASIC PROBABILITY THEORY 33 11. A bag contains 8 red balls and 5 white balls. Two successive draws of 3 balls are made without replacement. Find the probability that the first ‘drawing will give 3 white balls and the second 3 red balls. 12. In a bridge game, North and South have 9 spades between them. Find the probability that either East or West has no spades. (There are only 13. spades in a pack of 52 cards and each player has 13 cards. The players are designated by the positions they occupy, viz. North, South, East, West.) 13. In a hand of bridge, what is the probability that you have $ spades“ and your partner has the remaining 8. 14. A box contains 7 white and 5 black balls. If 3 balls are drawn simultaneously at random, what is the probability that they are not all of the same colour ? Calculate the probability of the same event for the case where the balls are drawn in succession with replacement between drawings. 15. An urn contains 3 white and 5 black balls. One ball is drawn and its colour is unnoted, kept aside and then another ball is drawn. What is the prob. that it (i) black (ii) white ? [Hints : Let 7,8, be the event that Ist drawn ball is white and black. Also let 1%, 8 the event that 2nd drawn ball is white and black. POW) = 3, PUB.) =, POWs/W,) =2, POWs /B,) = 2 1. P(W,)= P(W,)-P(W,/W,)+ PCB): PW, /W,) = 2 = P(By) 3) 16. Each of the two cabinets has 3 drawers. Cabinet I contains a gold coin in each drawer, and cabinet II contains a gold coin in one of its drawers and a silver coin in the other. A cabinet is randomly selected, one of its drawers is opened, and a gold coin is found. Find the probability that there is a gold coin in the other drawer. 17. There are three identical boxes, each provides with two drawers. Inthe first, each drawer contains a gold coin, in the third, each drawer contains a silver coin and in the second, one drawer contains a gold and the other a silver coin. A box is selected at random and one of the drawers is opened. If «gold coin is found, what is the prob. that the box chosen is the second one ? EM24-3ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS -A (Hints: P(A,) = P(g) = PCAs) = 2 18, There are three identical urns containing white and black balls. The first urn contains 3 white, 4 black balls, the 2nd um contains 4 white S black balls and the 3rd um contains 2 white and 3 black balls. An um is chosen at rancom and a ball is drawn from it. Ifthe drawn ball is white, what is the prob. that the 2nd um. is chosen. (WB.U.Tech 2007] 19, Um A contains 2 white, 4 red balls ; Um B contains 1 white and 1 red bal. A ball is randomly chosen from umn A and put into umn B ,and a ball is then randomly selected from Um B. Find (i) the probability that the ball selected from Urn B is white (ii) the conditional probability that the transferred ball was white, given that a white ball is selected from Um B. 20. A box contains 3 types of disposable lights. The probability that type I light gives over 100 hours of use is 0.7, with the corresponding probabilities for type II and type Il lights being 0.4 and 0.3, respectively. ‘Let 20% of the lights in the box are type I, 30% are type Il, and 50% are type TIL i) Find the probability that a randomly chosen light gives more than 100 hours of use ? Gi) Given the light lasted over 100 hours, what is the conditional probability that it was a type Il light 2 21. Two cards are drawn successively from the pack without replacing the first. Find the prob. that the 2nd card is also spade, if the first card is spade. {Hints. Let A, B be the event that the Ist and 2nd drawn card is spade 13x12 PAB) sexe" A= 22, Inia certain class 25% of the students failed in Mathematics, 15% failed in Chemistry, 10% failed in both Mathematics and Chemistry. A student is selected at random.BASIC PROBABILITY THEORY 35 (i) fhe failed in Mathematics, what is the prob. that he failed in Chemistry? (i) If he failed in Chemistry, what is the prob. that he failed in Mathematics? ‘What is the prob that he failed both in Mathematics and Chemistry [WB.U.Tech 2002] (iv) What is the prob. that he failed in Mathematics or Chemistry. 23. Let 5% of men and 0.25% of women are colorblind. A colourblind person is chosen at random. Find the probability that the person being male, Assume that there are equal number of males and females. What is ‘the population consisted of twice as many males as female ? 24.Section 4, B and C have 50, 75 and 100 workers respectively, and , 50, 60 and 70 percent of these are men. Resignations are equally likely among all workers, irrespective of sex. One worker resigns, and this is a ‘man. Find the probability that the person works in section C. 25, Three machines X, ¥, Z produce respectively 60%, 30% and 10% of the total number of items of a factory. Of this output 2% , 3% and 4% are defective. An item is selected at random and is found defective. Find the prob. that the item was produced by machine Z. 26. A box contains 10 pairs of shoes. If 8 shoes are randomly selected, what is the probability that there is ()) no complete pair (ii) exactly one complete pair? (Hine () + Gi) 90, «2° == JUWB.U.Tech 2005) 3 x *Gpxt? a D 27. Probability of recording temperature of Delhi 70°F is 0.3 and that of Mumbai is 0.4. The probability of récording the maximum of ‘temperatures in Delhi and Mumbai as 70° F is 0.2. Find the probability that the minimum of the two city temperatures is 70°F. 28. Um I contains 7 black and 5 white balls. Urn Il contains 12 black and 3 white balls. We toss a fair coin, If head comes then a ball from Um 1 is drawn, whereas if tail comes a ball from Um II is drawn. Suppose that a white ball is drawn. What is the probability that the coin shows tails? g36 ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS-IIA 29.Three machine men A, B, and C, produces a special kind of electronic-toy, with respective probabilities 0.02, 0.03 and 0.05 it fails to be established in market, In the factory where they work, A produces 50% of all toys, B 30% and C 20 %. What proportion of “‘non-establishment”” is caused by A? 30.An Engineering system consisting of 4 components is such that the system functions if and only if at least 2 components work. Suppose that all components work independently of each other. If the i-th component works with probability p,(i=1,2,3,4), compute the probability that the system functions. [Hint : Let the event, A; = ith component works P(A))= Pie Now "The System does not function" = (inden Ana )u[ana, 404] A040 4,04) +[4,.94,.04,04)] [4.940404] ‘:. Probability that the system does not function =HA AAA) HHA NAA CA) HHA NA AMA) {Pn Ain AoA) Plo na oA)} = (1 pi)(t- Pa )(1- pa)Kt~ Pa) + {Pi(t— P2}Qd- Ps) Pa) +(1-p,)Palt- psXt- Pa) +(1~ pi} Pa) a(t Pa) +(~ Pah Pa)(t~ Ps) Pah Next see, Probability that the system function — Probability that the system does not function.) 3A.The probability that a construction job will be finished in time is 17/20; the probability that there will be no strike is 3/4 ; and the probability ‘that the construction job will be finished in time, assuming that there will be no strike, is 14/15. Find the probability that (i) the construction job ‘will be finished in time and there will be no strike. (ii) there will be strike or the job will not be finished in time.BASIC PROBABILITY THEORY a7 ANSWERS a7 4 5 10 17 26 1. (056 Gi) og Gg 4D gy Gi Gy Mii) 5 bi 5.14/45 6.0.027, 0.111 1 Gg (806 10. 2/3 11, 7/429 12, 11/115 13,26084x10° 14, 35/44, 35/48, 5 3 3 i 140 4 1 15. (i) ai Beg ts 3 ‘18, 401 19. (i) ° (ii) 2 2 2 1 20. (i) O41 (ii) 12/41 21. 4/17 2. Os. (ii) 3 (iii) io ie oe (iv) io 23. bia 2. 2 27.0.5 28. 12/37 29.34.48, 25. 4/25 26..09145 ;.4268 30. (1-4). pips +2) preps ~3P,P2PsPs] 31. 7/10, 3/10 pony Muuriere Cuoice Questions 1. The probability that the sum 8 appear in a single toss of pair of a fair dice is 31 5 © 3 ©) 35 5 1 OF O% 2. OF6 girls ina class, 3 have blue eyes. If2 of the girls are chosen at random, the probability that both have blue eyes is 1 4 5 OF 1 O75 (@ none.38 ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS-1A 3. If A and B are two independent events then (a) A,B are exhaustive events (b) A,B are independent events. (©) A,B are mutually exclusive events. \ ' (@ None. | 4. Adi is tossed. Ifthe number i od, then the probability that its prime, is 1 2 @y 5 1 Og (@) none. | S. If A and B be events with P(a)=5, P(B)=2, and P(auB)=4 then P(B/A) = @? oF | 1 1 OF O35 6 IEA and B be events with P(A)= +,P(B)=2 and P(AUB)= = then ee: | 5 @t oF ©} (@) none. 7. IfX,¥ are two events with P(x)=8.p)=2, and Pany)~7, then P(X) = 4 @ 3 ©) 35 ot (none, (Hins : P(X a¥)= P(X)-P(X AY) ]