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Procedia Computer Science 156 (2019) 264–273

8th International Young Scientist Conference on Computational Science

8th International Young Scientist Conference on Computational Science
Russian Court Decisions Data Analysis Using Distributed
Russian Court Decisions Data Analysis Using Distributed
Computing and Machine Learning to Improve Lawmaking and Law
Computing and Machine Learning to Improve Lawmaking and Law
Enforcement
Enforcement
Oleg Metsker1*, Egor Trofimov2, Max Petrov1, Nikolay Butakov1
Oleg Metsker1*, Egor Trofimov2, Max Petrov1, Nikolay Butakov1
1 ITMO University, Saint Petersburg, Russia
2 All-Russian
1 ITMOState University
University, ofPetersburg,
Saint Justice, Moscow,
RussiaRussia
2 All-Russian State University of Justice, Moscow, Russia

Abstract
Abstract
This article describes the study results of semi-structured data processing and analysis of the Russian court decisions (almost 30
million)
This using
article distributed
describes cluster-computing
the study framework and
results of semi-structured machine
data learning.
processing Spark was
and analysis usedRussian
of the for datacourt
processing
decisionsand(almost
decisions
30
trees were
million) useddistributed
using for analysis. The results of the
cluster-computing automation
framework and ofmachine
data collection andSpark
learning. structuring
was usedof court decisions
for data are presented.
processing The
and decisions
methods
trees wereforused
extracting and structuring
for analysis. The resultsknowledge from semi-structured
of the automation data for
of data collection andthestructuring
field of justice, taking
of court into account
decisions the specifics
are presented. The
of the Russian
methods Federation
for extracting andlegislation,
structuringhave been developed.
knowledge On the example
from semi-structured of the
data for thefire
fieldsafety law, the
of justice, machine
taking learningthe
into account method for
specifics
identify
of the effectiveness
the Russian Federation of changes in
legislation, the been
have law and predictions
developed. of the
On the consequences
example of the fireofsafety
changing
law,the
thelaw is demonstrated.
machine It is also
learning method for
shown an
identify theassociation on the
effectiveness impact of
of changes lawmaking
in the law and on law enforcement.
predictions The regularities
of the consequences in law enforcement
of changing change associate
the law is demonstrated. by
It is also
changesaninassociation
shown the law. The onconnections
the impact of oflawmaking
law enforcement
on lawwith economic The
enforcement. and regularities
social indicators
in lawbetween the regions
enforcement changeare identified.
associate by
The judicial
changes interpretations
in the of the observations
law. The connections are also described
of law enforcement in this article
with economic whatindicators
and social proves thebetween
compliance of the results.
the regions are identified.
The judicial interpretations of the observations are also described in this article what proves the compliance of the results.
© 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
© 2019
This The
is an Authors.
open Published
accessPublished by Elsevier
article under Ltd.
the CC BY-NC-ND license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
© 2019 The Authors. by Elsevier Ltd.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of
This is an under
open responsibility
access article of
under the
the scientific
CC committee
BY-NC-ND of the
license 8th
8th International
International Young Scientist Conference
Conference on
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
the Young Scientist on Computational
Computational
Science
Peer-review
Science. under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 8th International Young Scientist Conference on Computational
Science
Keywords: Law, Modelling, Court decisions analysis, Lawmaking modelling, law modelling, Enforcement modelling, Enforcement analysis,
Russian lawLaw,
Keywords: data,Modelling,
Big data, Distributed computing,
Court decisions Machine
analysis, learning,
Lawmaking Artificial
modelling, lawintelligence;
modelling, Enforcement modelling, Enforcement analysis,
Russian law data, Big data, Distributed computing, Machine learning, Artificial intelligence;

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +7-812-9214433;

* Corresponding olegmetsker@gmail.com
E-mail address:author. Tel.: +7-812-9214433;
E-mail address: olegmetsker@gmail.com
1877-0509 © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
This is an open
1877-0509 access
© 2019 Thearticle under
Authors. the CC BY-NC-ND
Published license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review under
This is an open responsibility
access of the scientific
article under CC BY-NC-NDcommittee of the
license 8th International Young Scientist Conference on Computational Science
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 8th International Young Scientist Conference on Computational Science

1877-0509 © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 8th International Young Scientist Conference on Computational Science.
10.1016/j.procs.2019.08.202
 Oleg Metsker et al. / Procedia Computer Science 156 (2019) 264–273 265
2 Oleg Metsker, Egor Trofimov, Max Petrov, Nikolay Butakov/ Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000

1. Introduction

The digitalization of legal practice opens up opportunities to better understand the processes in lawmaking and law
enforcement. Elements of predictive analytics in the tasks of modern humanities research are an essential tool for its
development, which is embodied in various aspects of social processes management. Public administration processes
are limited to the application of legislation, and the technological benefits of big data and machine learning analysis
are precious and promising in this area. Data analysis and modeling of the processes in the legal system make it
possible to identify implicit relationships, to determine the structure and elements of the overall public complex
process, the relationship of the elements of the civil system, as well as their relationship with the scientific, technical,
social, economic, political and cultural aspects of the environment [1].
The main study aims to develop breakthrough technologies, methods and tools to support management of
lawmaking, law enforcement and legal decisions to optimize the legal system. The second part of this article describes
a multidisciplinary problem in the field of data processing, social, economic, legal, administrative sphere. Moreover,
the specifics of the Russian legislation create some difficulties. The third part provides an overview of the work and
the state of research in this area. It is shown that the field is slight elaboration. The fourth part describes the methods,
technologies, and tools for collecting and pre-processing tens of millions of court decisions, including the use of
distributed data processing technologies Apache Spark. Further, the paper describes a method for identifying patterns
between lawmaking and law enforcement by analyzing the series on the example of data of the court decisions on
sentencing for violation of fire regulations. Finally, this article describes a development of machine learning model
using decision trees to analyze how lawmaking impacts on law enforcement. The effect of the amendment is shown
and delay intervals are identified. Causal relationships are revealed. The actual focus of the paper is a legal document
analysis, the utilization of Spark and computer-science related interpretation from the law science point. Moreover,
the information was extracted, with using natural language processing (NLP) methods such as patterns, latent semantic
analysis (LSA), TF-IDF. However, NLP deserves a separate paper and beyond the stated title of this article.
The development of the processes models of law enforcement is a catalytic factor in the development of e-
government. This work contributes to the basis for the development of lawmaking-law enforcement models.
Technologies of processing and analysis of law enforcement process data have the potential to assess and improve
legal tools, develop legal procedures in a way to ensure the highest efficiency and legality in the management of the
law domain.

2. Problem definition

The state of the judiciary and the legal system is reflected in the acts of justice. Their processing and analysis by
ossified methods (methods of judicial statistics, the method of expert assessments) due to the complexity of the legal
system and procedural activity cease to give a reasonably adequate idea of the real state, functioning, and dynamics
of the judicial system and the legal system. Over the past 15 years, Russia has made a qualitative breakthrough in "e-
justice" but innovative technologies are in need for examination the accumulated volumes of judicial practice data. In
the field of law, such developments are just beginning, but they have great potential, as they allow to extract knowledge
from the accumulated data of judicial information, to make analytical conclusions, to give reasonable forecasts and
thus, to save time, human, financial and material resources. Computational methods in law have disproportionately
greater objectivity and accuracy than the capabilities, judgments, and estimates of experts, as well as limited by judicial
statistics. Distributed computing technologies and machine learning methods can become an essential addition to the
existing legal tools and in some cases it can acquire an independent value for supporting management decisions in the
judicial sphere. In science, there are new legal instruments designed to compensate for these shortcomings (legal
expertise, anti-corruption expertise, monitoring of legislation, monitoring of law enforcement, etc.). However, these
legal tools have not been provided with the technology and methodology appropriate to recent volumes of legal
information and information processes yet. This study contributes to the development of such legal instruments.
The scientific idea of this study is to develop a new, previously non-existent methodology for identifying and
predicting deviations in law enforcement activities that meets modern information processes, based on artificial
intelligence technologies and open data of the state automated information systems.
The novelty of the problem is to apply in the subject area of law analytical and predictive capabilities of intellectual
analysis and data analysis to simulate deviations in law enforcement.
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Oleg Metsker, Egor Trofimov, Max Petrov, Nikolay Butakov/ Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000 3

Based on the analysis of the court decisions data, it is possible:

• classification and models of deviations in law enforcement;

• classification of legal and evidentiary facts according to the criterion of their systemic importance for deviations in
law enforcement;
The scientific results of the research can: contribute to the fundamental knowledge about the processes of law
enforcement and law-making; serve as a theoretical and methodological basis for the integration of artificial
intelligence technologies in the subject area of law;
To identify the impact of laws and their changes on public processes and institutions of governance, it is essential
to study the behavior of authorities in the process of law enforcement. Analyzing multidimensional data reflecting the
effectiveness of legal mechanisms is necessary. In this point, the mining of big data provides the perfect opportunity.
Moreover, in the conditions of increasing the complexity of production activities, analytical and prognostic
capabilities of these methods become necessary. Technologies for processing large scale of semi-structured
information of the law enforcement process have the potential to assess and to improve legal means, to develop legal
procedures in such a way as to ensure the highest efficiency and legality of state governance.

3. Related works

There are legal literature corresponding the study of law enforcement [2] and various means of its study: legal and
anti-corruption expertise , monitoring of lawmaking and law enforcement [3], etc. In this segment of the scientific
literature the approaches to understanding the mentioned phenomena and the methodology of their research, mainly
in line with the dogmatic (formal-legal) method, although there are some interdisciplinary studies (for example, in the
field of info-communicative aspects of law) [4]. However, these studies are not based on modern achievements in the
field of information technology, data analysis algorithms, which are trained in different mathematical ways and are
aimed at optimizing the performance criterion, using data from an example or experience [5].
Governments of different countries have begun to explore the machine learning, which indicates a growing
recognition of these methods in the field of public administration [6]. Administrations of some large cities have gained
positive experience in the use of intelligent data analysis and machine learning methods to improve the efficiency of
administration [7] and inspection of catering facilities in Chicago [8], for the organization and implementation of fire
supervision in New York [9].
There are few publications and developments in the LegalTech segment. So, in 2007 the "European legal service"
has deduced on the Russian market of legal online consultations, since that in Russia, there are various electronic
services of this kind (the designers of the documents, the web platform for the search of a lawyer, chatbots, online-
consulting and services for online filing of tax returns, etc.). In 2014, in the United States, the company "Ross
Intelligence" has created an electronic assistant equipped with a question-and-answer system of artificial intelligence
to understand the issues of lawyers and provide them with information on their cases and legislation with the necessary
links. Recently, the American company "LawGeex" announced the victory of artificial intelligence over real lawyers
in the competition for the analysis of terms and problem areas of contracts [10], [11].
To work with semi-structured court decision texts written on the natural language the natural language processing
(NLP) is used [1]. NLP is a class of methods for data structuring and data extraction and use it in computational
processes [12].
In the field of big data analysis of judicial acts presented several works [13], which are a fundamentally different
focus not on the creation of technologies for the analysis of law enforcement to solve state problems of improving
legislation and law enforcement.

4. Court decisions data analysis results

The empirical base of the study is the data from the Russian electronic court decisions database. Electronic court
decisions are partly structured. However, the main relevant information is contained in them in an unstructured form
as natural language texts. Methods of extracting valid information from the texts of court decisions are described in
the early works of the authors of this article [1]. In addition, significant amounts of semi-structured data significantly
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change the requirements for processing technologies. For this reason, it is essential to describe these distributed
technologies further.

4.1. Data collecting and preprocessing

The resource of court decisions database of the Russian government automated system was examined in which the
cases are divided into categories:
• Civil cases (6,845,122 number of cases)
• Cases of administrative offenses (4,444,562 number of cases)
• Criminal cases (3,302,665 number of cases)
All of the above has been described in the form of tasks for the crawler [14] and run for some time. As a result of
the weekly data collection, 10,612,807 documents with a volume of 290GB were collected in category 1 "Civil and
administrative cases; 8,804,536 documents with a volume of 321 GB were collected in 2 category "Administrative
Offense Cases "; for 3 category “Criminal cases” 8,913,215 documents were collected with a volume of 192 GB;
Data has been processed by the Apache Spark - engine for big data processing. We used Python version along with
Jupyter notebook to process all data. By our own opinion, Spark is the best way to process data due to convenience
API, fast execution and interactiveness. Significant volumes of these court decisions allow us to obtain sufficient data
sets for the analysis of separate law articles and parts by region and the results in a significant (5-7 years) time interval.
The characteristics of the cluster are described below: Alive Workers: 9, Cores in use: 288 Total, 193 Memory in use:
880.0 GB Total, 400.0 GB Used. The data from the json was converted to parquet for the factorization and learning
models. The conversion algorithm was in the MapReduce paradigm. The processing of 6000000 court decisions (300
gigabytes) took 3.3 minutes. It took less than 1 second to aggregate data on the number of similar cases after
conversion to parquet.
The most popular articles in criminal cases: the article 158 Part 2 (Theft) 30 % cancellations, the article 158 Part,
the article 228 Part 1 (illegal production, sale or transfer of drugs) 2 % cancellations, the article 228 Part 2 (the same
acts on a large scale) 0,1 % closed, the article 111 Part 4 (intentional infliction of serious harm to health) 3% closed.
Article 105 Part 1 (Murder). The most popular articles in civil cases: recovery of amounts under the loan agreement,
disputes arising from housing legislation, cases of insurance compensation, cases of compensation for damage from
road accidents.

4.2. Analysis of lawmaking and law enforcement series data of the Russian law on violation of fire safety
requirements

In the course of the following computational experiment, we analyzed a series of data describing changes
concerning time and regions in the process of administrative court decisions on the example of article 20.4 of the
Administrative Law of the Russian Federation Violation of fire safety requirements. More than 50,000 decisions' for
the eight most mentioned regions of Russia were selected from generally collected data of 4,444,562 administrative
courts decisions. The retrospective was from 2009 to 2017 (Figure 1). Such circumstances as cancellation by
insignificance, the amount of punishment, mitigating and aggravating circumstances were extracted from the texts.
The date of the decision, the result of the decision, the regions were structured at the stage of pre-processing by Spark
technology. The article 20.4 of the Code has been reviewed for changes to identify possible patterns since 2010. Since
17 June 2011 administrative penalties have been revised in the direction of tightening and changed the competence of
the courts to consider cases (in the first instance). It should be borne in mind that the main violators in this category
of cases have always been officials and legal entities, and bringing to administrative responsibility of a legal entity is
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Oleg Metsker, Egor Trofimov, Max Petrov, Nikolay Butakov/ Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000 5

almost always accompanied by punishment and officials.

Fig. 1. Number of analyzed court decisions on fire safety from 2009 to 2017 before and after the law change

Before the changes in 2011, the punishment provided (in different parts of the article) an administrative fine for
citizens – a maximum of 500-2000 rubles, for officials and individual entrepreneurs – a maximum of 1000-4000
rubles, for legal entities – a maximum of 10000-40000 rubles. Administrative suspension of activities for up to 90
days as an alternative to the fine was provided only for the general composition of the offense (part 1 of article 20.4)
for individual entrepreneurs and legal entities, and for more serious offences – violations in a special fire regime (part
2) and the violation caused the fire (part 3) - this type of punishment was not provided at all. After the amendment,
the amount of the administrative fines was increased (some more serious offenses were not provided for more severe
punishment): for citizens – up to a maximum of 1500-5000 rubles, for officials and– up to a maximum of 10000-
50000 rubles, for individual entrepreneurs – up to a maximum of 15000-50000 rubles, for legal entities – up to a
maximum of 100000-500000 rubles. At the same time, the illogical norms were eliminated. Now high fines were
introduced for such serious violations, and administrative suspension of the activities of individual entrepreneurs and
legal entities for up to 90 days were introduced for the most socially significant violations.
Before the amendments courts could hear in the first instance almost all cases of violation of fire safety
requirements (the General composition of the offense under part 1), but only if the state fire service transfers these
cases to their consideration. Such cases were rarely referred to court because the state fire service did not have obvious
criteria to decide on which claims it was appropriate to consider the application of an administrative suspension of
activities (this punishment was imposed only by court), so almost all cases were considered by the state fire service.
After the amendment, the state fire service received a clear indication of what categories of cases it must submit to
court. These were cases of repeated violations of fire safety requirements, which, according to statistics, led to the
most dangerous consequences (violations of fire safety requirements for internal fire water supply, electrical
installations of buildings, electrical products, primary fire extinguishing means, evacuation routes, evacuation and
emergency exits, automatic fire extinguishing systems, fire alarm systems, fire warning and evacuation management
systems, smoke protection systems of buildings). After the amendment, almost all such cases began to be considered
by courts.
The Fig. 1 shows that in 2011 (in just six months, during which the amendment was in force), there was a sharp
increase in the number of cases considered by courts of the first instance. After that, in 2012-2013, the number of such
incidents decreased by four times and then began to decline annually. This shows that a competent law-making policy
optimized the competence of the courts, allowed to impose effective sanctions for different types of offences and in
the short term (up to three years) led to a sharp (four times) reduction in the number of the most severe violations in
the field of fire safety.
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4.3. Dynamics of cancellation of court decisions on fire safety

The following diagram shows the results of an appeal of fire safety cases (Figure 2).

Fig. 2. Number of cancelled court decisions on fire safety by the years

The results shows the dynamics of the two processes in the review of sentencing orders. First of all, after the
amendment of the law in June 2011, the ratio of the number of canceled decisions (with the termination of the
proceedings) and the total number of cases became less. Against the background of a sharp increase in the activity of
the court in cases of violation of fire safety requirements, the ratio of the number of decisions on the cancellation of
decisions and the number of decisions on the abandonment of complaints without satisfaction changes twice in favor
of the first, and their number becomes the largest one. Such dynamics in 2011-2015 is due to a sharp increase in
sanctions for violation of fire safety requirements, which led to more appeals, and the decline since 2016 is due to the
fact that the policy of applying inevitable and severe punishment.

4.4. Analysis of differences between Russian regions on fire safety law courts decisions

The following diagram shows the ratio of the number of court decisions reflect appeal process, on the change of
punishment and on the abandonment of the decision unchanged in different regions of Russia (Figure 3).

Fig. 3. The ratio of canceled and changed court decisions on fire safety by the Russian regions
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There are three classes of regions from the point of view of law enforcement. The first group, as a whole, is
characterized by a high integral rating of the socio-economic situation, per capita cash income above the national
average and a high balanced financial result of the organizations (Moscow and St. Petersburg, Krasnodar region,
Rostov region). In these regions, there is a predominance of decisions on refusal to review previously issued decisions
on the appointment of administrative penalties. In such regions, there is a rather strict policy of punishment for
offenses.
The second group, as a whole, is characterized by a low integral rating of the socio-economic situation, the average
per capita income of the population below the national average and low balanced financial performance of
organizations (Volgograd, Chelyabinsk, and Samara regions). In these regions, there is a roughly equal number of
decisions on the termination of the proceedings (with the cancellation of the decision on sentencing) and the decision
of refusal to revise, as well as a much higher rate of change of amount of punishment to his lower (approximately 50-
75% of the number of decisions on the termination of the proceedings). In these regions, there is a tendency to reduce
the level of responsibility and exemption from punishment in the whole or in the part.
The third group is represented by the Republic of Dagestan, in which the number of decisions on the abolition of
punishment and termination of proceedings in the case is four times higher than the decision to refuse to review the
case. Such a clear imbalance is in "harmony" with the paradoxical socio-economic situation in the region, which has
long had significant shortcomings [15]. In particular, the average per capita income of the population in Dagestan is
below the national average, and the net financial result of the organizations is generally negative.

4.5. Analysis of court decision data and machine learning methods

In the following experiment, the analysis of data of the results of consideration and appeals of cases of sentencing for
violations of fire safety law is produced. The correlation analysis of crime compositions, the analysis of the size of
penalties, types of criminals, results of cases by courts are made (Figure. 4).

Fig. 4. Speed and type of changing the law enforcement after the change in the law

The correlation of various circumstances of the case for the years of judicial acts shows that the dynamics of these
indicators is practically not changed over time. This leads to the conclusion that mitigating and aggravating
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8 Oleg Metsker, Egor Trofimov, Max Petrov, Nikolay Butakov/ Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000

circumstances provided for by law are part of an effective law-making decision. There's also a correlation to the
intruder's appearance. You can also see how the size of the punishment for companies and performing personnel
changed depending on relapse. On violin plots shows the delay as gradually the courts are beginning to apply the law
in relation to the executive personal compared with immediate changes in relation to companies.
At the next stage of the analysis, a decision tree was trained for the task of classifying the assignment or non-
imposition of punishment for violation of the law on fire safety with 89 % ROC curve. As predictors, the crime was
used aggravating and mitigating circumstances (repetition, guilt, and so on), as part of the article, the type of offender,
the amount of the fine, the year of sentencing (Figure 5).

Fig. 5. Decision tree of sentencing taking into account changes in the law

The decision tree method gave outstanding results in terms of intellectual analysis of the practical results of the law
change. First, the decision tree at the top level is clearly divided into two branches by the year "mid-2011", which
corresponds exactly to the beginning of the amended law (June 2011). From this knowledge, we conclude that the
changes in the law were indeed significant. Secondly, the decision tree shows that since the summer of 2011 the
number of circumstances of the case, which are crucial for sentencing, has been changing. Until mid-2011 (left side
of the tree), only General groups of circumstances ("mitigating circumstance" and "aggravating circumstance") appear
at the four lower levels of the decision tree. Since the summer of 2011 (right part) on the decision tree appear not only
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the same General group of circumstances ("mitigating circumstance" and "aggravating circumstance"), but also more
specific circumstances ("Relapse" - one of the aggravating circumstances; "guilty plea" is one of the mitigating
circumstances). After the change of the law in the trial began to take more into account the specific circumstances of
the case.
Third, the decision tree shows the change in the significance of the circumstances of the case for the decision to
impose a fine. Until the summer of 2011 (the left part) the circumstances of the case ("mitigating circumstance" and
"aggravating circumstance") in all cases are below the size of fines. In addition, some branches of the decision
generally exclude the circumstances of the case, and on those branches of the decision tree, where the circumstances
of the case are present, they do not form a sequence and are single. That is, to make a decision on the amount of the
fine, the court was often not guided by the specific circumstances of the case. Starting from the summer of 2011 (right
part) on all branches of the decision tree, the amount of the fine is determined only after a chain of two or three
circumstances of the case. This knowledge leads to the conclusion that after the amendment of the law, as a «General
rule», the court began to determine the amount of the fine after the identification of two or three circumstances of the
case, and the court practice became more uniform and predictable. Fourthly, the decision tree shows that after the
change of the law, the main thing in sentencing was the presence or absence of a relapse, since the aggravating
circumstance of "Relapse" is at the base of the decision tree after the summer of 2011 (the right feature at the second
level from above). This knowledge leads to the conclusion that the changes in the law have achieved an important
legal goal – the priority counteraction against malicious offenders.
Fifth, the decision tree shows that after the change of the law (since the summer of 2011) for the relapse of the
offense is a typical confession of guilt by the offender. The feature is located directly under the feature "relapse " on
branch "true". This knowledge leads to the conclusion that the changes in the law have achieved an important legal
goal – the offender's understanding that punishment is inevitable. The guilty pleads guilty and thus simplifies the trial,
and in return asks only for a less severe punishment («Admission of guilt» is considered a mitigating circumstance).
All of the above together is interpreted as follows. Changes in the decision tree since the summer of 2011 demonstrate
that the new law has become more effective. The size of the fine became adequate to the severity of the offenses,
which allowed the bulk of cases to take into account the specific circumstances of the offense and determine the
amount of the fine individually based on mitigating and aggravating circumstances. Comparing the decision tree
(taking into account its interpretation) with the dynamics of changes in the number of offenses, we conclude that a
more effective law in the summer of 2011 allowed to restore order in the field of fire safety and in the medium term
(3-5 years) to significantly reduce the number of offenses in this area.

5. Conclusion and future work

The study results offenses us to draw two preliminary conclusions. First, the effectiveness of state policy in the
area of administrative responsibility and consistent implementation of the principles of punishment for violations are
higher in those regions that are more prosperous in socio-economic terms. In less wealthy regions, there is a tendency
of the court to condone offenses, taking into account the property status of citizens and the financial condition of
organizations. Secondly, the paradoxical result in the review of cases in the Republic of Dagestan correlates with
contradictory indicators of its socio-economic situation. This imbalance in law enforcement, the social sphere, and the
economy can be explained in advance by the high level of deviation in the region, which does not correspond to the
all-Russian one, including the likely high level of corruption. Further research may involve the development of
simulation models based on the obtained methods and results to predict the change in law enforcement depending on
law making. Moreover, in the process of developing models based on the analysis of criminal cases and civil cases,
administrative cases are planned to be analyzed for other types of offenses, for example, in the field of traffic,
protection of ecology and antitrust regulation. Economic, social and political factors will also be taken into account in
the analysis to develop complex models for the integration of processes from different fields.

Acknowledgement: This research is financially supported by Grant of the President of the Russian Federation
#14.Y30.18.6322-MK.
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