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‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻃﻤﻮﺡ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺺ ﺍﻟﻬﻮﺓ‬


‫ﺑﻴﻦ ﺭﺅﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﻣﻘﺘﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ‬
‫ ‬
‫‪@ @@óÈb’@‡á«Oc‬‬ ‫‬
‫ ‬
‫ ‬

‫ ‪,‬אא =‪U‬ن‪ ." c‬א'‪$‬‬ ‫ولאא   ن‬


‫א‪!"#$‬א אא  ن  א&‪%‬א‪c#‬א‪O/‬א‪cD‬دوج= ‪/"b /X‬‬
‫א'‪$‬א&‪،%‬وא‪+,-#‬א*‪ )$$‬و\‪ % ./،0‬ذ‪,9f‬د‪,=S/F‬א‪$‬‬
‫‪3. 4‬א‪,2#$‬אم‪./0‬אא ‪ ،‬א אא ‪hSB"c‬א‪=Ig‬‬
‫و ‪:;3‬א*‪9‬ن‪693‬ذ‪i 567‬א א ‪/‬و=‪ 0M‬و"‪,‬م‬
‫= <> = < ‪ K‬و@‪>#C W‬אא‪30\H@9   S B"2$‬א'‪$‬‬
‫‪E/‬ون‪./‬א‪3$ D‬א'‪$‬א&‪ ،%‬א&‪K%‬و ‪5T4‬א‪>j=SD‬دא‬
‫و‪m  #//"HFI=3>9 JWFG‬אز‪./,,%  %5‬א‪,‬א‪k=l=$‬‬
‫'"‪N'B",‬و‪L'M‬א‪KC‬א‪,‬و) א‪I,nM‬א‪ -#‬אא =‪,‬ون‬
‫א‪ 4R+‬א‪Q‬لא‪OPO%#+‬א'‪ $‬אع‪,S'b‬א>א‪<D‬وא ‪."I,‬‬
‫א&‪PK%‬ن‪T$U‬א‪I,"S‬א‪  MD‬א‪،(1)o #‬و‪4‬א‪5o>M‬א‪=SD‬‬
‫א ‪ I-J9V/./I, #'/‬א‪#rI,,s‬ج‪qP‬א]‪."=%‬א*‪p$‬‬
‫א'‪،$‬و‪X >  $3.4‬و‪ W‬א‪)/W#‬אא ؟‪B"!SJ‬‬
‫‪F‬وא א*‪$‬س؛وא‪O%‬אא ن א‪#'D‬א‪)-#‬وא‪3)$ D‬א'‪$‬‬
‫=‪ #$‬א‪U/‬ز‪L‬א‪./URF‬א]\‪M‬ق‪ 3‬א&‪%‬؟‪)/‬א‪uD‬زقא‪W, "'n‬‬
‫‪WS‬א‪#‬אزن=א‪M‬قא‪ H@_W,‬א ‪H‬אא ‪ 3‬א'‪$‬‬
‫و و‪C‬ع‪3  /‬א'‪$‬א&‪%‬و=‪ I,9‬א&‪%‬؟‪" j)/‬א*‪:$‬‬
‫א‪f: v#/,2#'D‬א‪J2D‬؟ ‬ ‫و‪0‬א‪/‬א‪ab‬א‪HC‬وא‪H@@,#$‬א ‪ K‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ 60
:Power –Centrism ‫•ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ‬ < <[íé{{{ÃÎ]çÖ]<êâ<^Ú<<I1
،H$'$$*‫א‬I‫)א‬IS‫א‬ 4M'$m/$,/ ‫אא‬
 n‫دא‬c #F'F]‫ونא‬mR‫ نא‬B"I‫و‬V" ./o'v>'MF‫م‬,S‫و‬،)‫و‬,‫)א‬$'‫א‬
‫א‬g‫دوج‬cD‫א‬B D=IS‫א‬3LH‫و‬M#= ./!SxF‫א‬y‫(א‬2)=‫א‬aD‫א‬wv_‫وא‬H ‫א‬
‫א‬D‫ ") وא‬#%@‫א‬LGU#‫א‬،@‫ و‬WkD‫ א‬L$SJo>M$$ HCbGVG
 JILLGUI,H" s‫= ‚א‬f#†F  K‫ ض‬l‫وא‬,S #=o'#D‫א {א‬
‫אد‬D‫א‬FG‫و‬،EH$'‫א‬B" JbU/L; :Groupism ‫•ﺍﻟﺠﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬
3‫אد‬b*‫وא‬H" s‫= ‚א‬H‫و‬M#F
q‫א*و‬%,=o>< =K/R‫  א‬/ #
/B">=‫ن‬y‫ אدא‬o>='#‫א‬
‫א‬F‫و‬،H"|qP‫ ن‬# X<" o>F B"
+ 3H$'‫א‬o>b‰#M/‫ذא‬PKEOb‫;ن‬
‫ج‬#‫؛‬I_‫}א‬#'/'3;
،‫د‬D‫ "وא‬#%@‫א‬IS‫" =א‬M#‫א‬Iab
./<#‫א‬O  <+‫א‬o9V#‫א‬qP‫א س‬
‫אم‬,2#$‫א‬I,‫ ن‬R4 "M‫و‬
o9V#‫;א~نאא‬qP‫و‬،)" s‫א‬
 K(3)E%]‫א‬F5‫دŠא‬D‫א‬IS‫א‬
F4/P,+‫ ")א‬s‫א\)א‬,‫א‬
5Wb‫! نא {   و‬G‫ذא‬P  / 3‫و‬،}\*‫א‬H" s‫א‬K/‫ع‬#‫א‬
B"f‫ذ‬H$4 F‫„ن ولא‬b،,"‫א‬S‫ א‬F'F]‫א‬H" s‫ א‬x€/o O#
W) bBv#‫و‬,‫א‬H$'‫אنא‬,/   \‫دא‬o9V#,/o ‫و‬،o/*‫ول–א‬,‫א‬
،‫ن‬,/، nF" s‫ א‬J!F >/  K J‫ "א‬s‫א‬
>F„bEo/  J‫دول‬،HJ‫‹א‬/P،o/
:Egoism ‫•ﺍﻷﻧﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬
, 0B"LLGU$ŒB" #$
 "‫ن‬4#$)#=‫و‬،F'F]‫ونא‬mR‫ א‬B"> ‫א‬3)$'‫دא'א‬,-#
)"| 4" s‫א‬-D‫א‬,, ‚ =‫ ن‬./o;=،‫אא‬-D‫א‬XC
,,qP%_‫و نא‬،>$$c/ +x]‫ > ن'> א'א‬4€ƒ‫אو‬
)M #$S‫א‬5Wb‫ "و‬s‫א‬-/ Iv#/FF*‫א‬.4،Altruistic behaviour
،7‫قوא~دא‬V\*‫א‬O 4{ + -D‫א‬O%‫א‬#/, "‫و‬F'F]‫א א‬3
‫د‬,)(4) FVS ‫א‬k‫א‬4‫ و‬FF*‫„نא‬b" s‫א‬-/K/‫אא‬
 K)F'F]‫א'א‬  Kx]‫א‬:9B":l##$

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫‪61‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪P‬نאא*‪./7$‬א‪j3L4M#‬ل א&‪،%‬א*‪/‬א‪kC:#+‬‬
‫א ‪HV‬א‪,‬و‪S‬د‪ cc qPI  Ž/‬א‪M4‬א‪y‬א‪#$‬ع=>א  ‪5 X‬‬
‫‪F4/P‬א‪B"ƒ #‬א‪=SD‬אא ‪,‬א‪ $‬א‪L$SJ'MHFqPHCM‬‬
‫א'‪$‬א&‪%‬א‪ W)~c%Fy‬א {‪  "،‬نאא {‪n>F.4 #‬‬
‫א'  )وא‪/o X‬دא‪IS‬و= ‪*world theory D"FI=./ X‬ن‬
‫א‪H" s‬א*}‪+ 3‬و!ن؛وא‪ fR‬א‪/,2#'x9‬ن‪IŽŠFk/‬‬
‫‪3‬א אא‪  D‬א‪WIcŒXŽ GVGqP -/W /K/WM#@y‬אא ذא>‬
‫א‪,‬و؛وא@‪r56‬א‪i'#‬ل"‪4b$,/F I,.‬وא‪ $‬و‪،EI,S /‬و‪,/‬אس‬
‫א'‪$‬א&‪*%‬دو"‪6B‬وز ‪) # "b‬א ‪ x/‬אא א‪،I,,s‬‬
‫‪H$$‬א‪،IS‬وא‪qP D‬א ‪ b‬وא‪ X‬و= ‚א ‪H‬אא א&‪#0‬אزن‬
‫א&=‪H‬א‪;V‬وא‪ WnS9B"ca‬א‪،IS‬و‪< /‬א*‪ ،./‬وאزنא‪b,‬ع–‬
‫א‪IS‬א‪K#y‬אא ندא‪ )>F  n‬א‪vg‬م‪K‬و‪„bkC#‬نא‪3“9‬א'‪$‬‬
‫א‪,‬دא‪ 5 x†fK(5)$') M‬א&‪IŽ/T ,%‬א‪I,S‬א‪L'M#‬‬
‫א]دא‪‘#M nH‬وא    אא ‪،>/ "3‬و‪O 4‬‬
‫‪W3‬‬
‫א'‪$‬א&‪V\./%‬ل‪Px I,M/,v$ ./O <#/‬ذא”‪ k‬‬
‫‪. 4. Wp$‬א‪IS‬؟‪5},9P /)/‬א ‪/,9 B"H‬א‬
‫א‪" s‬؟‪/‬א‪,‬وא‪ HV"O +‬א'‪$‬א&‪P}\ I =،%‬ن ‬
‫‪3  /9‬א'‪$‬א&‪W %‬‬ ‫א‪3IS‬א‪=Wb#‬א‪D‬א‪C #D‬؟ ‬
‫‪P‬نאא  ‪j./x‬د‪},9P>" F‬א ‪H‬אא א&‪0‬‬
‫د€ و‪ KE0\F9 4F ,#†’V#/4b$,/‬‬
‫‪< <Víé{{{ÃÎ]çÖ]<l^膿ßÖ]<…çŞi<-<2‬‬ ‫‹''‬
‫‪,,$G''./‬س'' ‪'')b4/''qP‬و''‪ b‬‬
‫א ‪/V‬א‪H Ic D‬אא )‬ ‫و''''و''و‪''xF;/‬و''وא‪)  =،''c#‬‬
‫‪P.M,S‬دא‪mŽI‬ونא‪,‬وא‪،%HCb•VG./ |>URF T4 +‬‬
‫‪TMF‬א@‪ab‬א‪HC‬א‪GVx‬א*‪$$‬א'=‪ ،S‬و‪5q‬א ‪H‬و ‪/ "x‬و)‬
‫‪ >/.4‬א‪f MB"ca‬א‪,D‬א*‪ 4)$$‬א ‪H‬؛‬
‫א‪,2#$‬אم‪5‬א ‪  3H‬א'‪PW)/B"J'=!F $‬ذא‪!F‬א‪mR‬ون‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪62‬‬
‫א]‪" s=SS9c #F'F‬وא*‪M‰<P FF‬אطא ‪H‬وא‪HCM‬‬
‫و‪c/‬א‪IS‬؛‪„b‬نא'‪ qP  †H$‬ن وא‪R‬وط‪F‬אوƒ‪ KConditionsE‬‬
‫‪ J2.1‬א‪,D‬אسא א‪W"M‬‬ ‫‪4‬ن‪0‬א"‪P@P‬ذא‪‚ =Hb‬א'‪H‬‬
‫א‪cD‬א‪S‬د‪bB"I‬ضא م‪،‬و‪F‬א €‪  4‬ن‪}F‬א‪4M‬אא )‬
‫‪57l‬א'‪4/„=k‬ن ‪+‬دو ''‪./‬א‪HS #‬وא‪HV, #‬‬
‫א‪qPXv‬א‪  KOP/WS-#IS‬وא‪HM  #‬وא@‪,#/‬אدא‪5gH‬א_‪v‬‬
‫نא‪E,‬ول@‪>< =3Wx‬א ‚و‪  T‬א*‪،$$‬وא;‪ K ™/‬א‪4M‬‬
‫‪9SS9HF C‬ل‪F‬א*‪J‬אƒא*\}‪ 3‬אא )א‪,,$G''./,# D‬س''‪;qP‬‬
‫ و"‪,‬م=א‪>j‬א‪ $# / ،-'#‬א‪H‬א_‪7‬אد‪$,/3I‬‬
‫و"‪ †O‬א‪,‬ول‪,qP‬א> وא‪B 'I,9‬אא א‪5)S#'W,S#‬‬
‫א '‪D4‬א‪>%‬אوƒא‪PKn‬ذא‪ 3‬א‪/$,D‬د>א&م‪./‬א‪qP  #š#‬‬
‫– ;‪b$7‬ق‪bB">'/‬ض   ‪9H‬لא'א ‪,‬و)‪،‬و} ن‬
‫א م‪3‬א {‪„b،‬نא‪,‬ول‪ ./h ##$‬א ‪HV‬א'‪S= /4$‬א"‪,‬‬
‫א‪>M‬و‪k‬א‪7RFH@ #9‬א_‪›7<"C/ ,E %7‬و‪ " 3‬ق‬
‫وאد‪KI‬وא_‪v‬א אא א‪,S #‬א‪ y‬א א‪،R‬و نא‪D‬دœא‪  D‬و‬
‫‪‰R‬אא‪ 3$$  x #KC‬ن‪ Cb‬א*\‪B">S:  V‬א*" ل و‬
‫א مא‪E,‬و))א‪m'D‬و"‪‰J.‬א‪ < D‬א'א‪,‬و)‪،‬و‪3‬א >א‪3 x #U'D‬‬
‫א*‪= /‬א‪,‬ولو ‪cc‬א‪H@ #9‬אאع‪},/ ،‬א‪"#$‬א‪,nS‬א'‪ )$‬ن ‬
‫‪WS‬‬
‫و)א‪o>M‰#MD‬א*‪7$‬א‪ /4‬وא‪, X‬אƒ‪O#$$‬א&‪%‬א‪'n‬دون‬
‫ ‚א‪,‬وא‪ K(7)2>x€y‬‬ ‫א‪@,F‬عא_و‪ K(6)7‬‬

‫'  ‪  B‬אא א‪qP,S#‬‬ ‫‪,‬א‪},/$‬א‪F‬ق‪5‬א_‪v‬א ‪/‬‬


‫"‪–B‬אא'‪$‬א&‪#r%‬ج‪| qP‬א_‪ 4‬א‪%*-ŽaD‬ل‪./‬‬
‫‪\•VG‬א‪b /WH‬א‪,D‬אسא  א‪$ D‬وא‪/"HFqP‬‬
‫א‪qP # D‬אא ‪،‬א@‪VJ‬ع"‪B‬א ‪'o> 4،SS9 H‬אدא‪ n‬وא‪9-C‬ل‬
‫אא א&‪،0‬و— ‪0\H@9B"o>FWM )I\o‬‬
‫‪3‬א'‪$‬א&‪K%‬وאא‪ l‬ض‪3‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫‪63‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪P‬ن‪,‬ومאא א‪ %I,,s‬א‪E,‬א‪$‬‬ ‫‪H=#‬אא א‪,S#‬د‪qP‬א‪ #$‬א‬


‫‪4M‬ون=‪0 4R‬م‪3‬א‪}S‬א*‪$$‬‬ ‫א ‪9HŽS‬ل‪,‬ودא‪o #‬אא )‪ K‬‬
‫و‪F‬א@‪ #‬مא‪ =SD‬א  =‪,‬א‪ $‬א‪Sy‬دא ‪HV‬א‪,‬و‪b،‬א ن‪,‬‬
‫א'‪30\FH$‬א@‪ H‬א‪MR#‬א‪f‬א‪}S‬א"‪ #‬دא"‪B‬א‪o>" #‬‬
‫א‪EI,-#D‬؛"  '' “وא‪"PB"''c  #‬د‪HCM= I‬א‪s‬א‪،•Vx‬و <"‪B‬‬
‫‪X9P‬א‪L4M#‬אא )و|= ‚ ‪./" j‬א‪RH #‬وطא‪o4y‬‬
‫א*‪4b‬אא א‪ +FJP3s‬א {א_‪،)SS‬وא‪ ž9VD‬نאא ‬
‫א‪،)M$ J)b)@,#$‬وא‪ O  'F/‬א‪I,,s‬د‪m qPH‬א‪,%M#ŸH‬א‪،‬‬
‫"د‪=I‬א א‪KI,,s‬و‪  ’1959 $3‬و‪"S=!#‬א‪  ،,v#‬ن‬
‫''وא‪''c#‬א‪IL‬א‪S‬א א‪'' qP,S#‬وא‪Ll#/  6''c#‬א‪3/H‬א ‪HV‬‬
‫" لא'‪H$‬א‪,‬وא‪y‬وא‪ = 0!>%‬א‪,‬و‪  x/‬א א‪  /‬א‪ls‬א‪b‬‬
‫=‪3l‬א‪./ =‰C=c #‬א_‪ wv‬وא‪،% 4#‬وא‪ /‬د}‪;0qP‬‬
‫א‪ =S #D‬א]‪F'F‬وא&‪L'M hn‬א‪M#/H‬و‪9‬א@"‪ #‬د"‪TMFB‬‬
‫א‪,‬א\‪,‬ولوא مא‪,‬و)=‪ L;،5$U‬א*‪4b‬אא א‪,I,,s‬א‪$‬‬
‫ن‪3O#F‬א'‪$‬א‪,‬و‪ ,E1979F‬د ‪H4/‬א'‪=H$‬א‪,‬ول‪K‬و='‪:‬‬
‫!‪5K|qP‬א‪Ll#D‬א‪،H‬وو‪5 !-C‬א ‪hnS‬و‪#$,/H,‬ن‪#F‬ن‬
‫א ‪./,,‬א*‪4b‬אא א‪,,% ."€,S‬ن‪  ،‬وא‪B"!/ > /I,9‬‬
‫‪WJ‬دא‪4Ž LGUM$‬لא م ‪XC‬אא א‪ KI,,s‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻓﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫א‪,‬و)"‪JB‬قא‪ "M#‬א‪,‬و)‪K‬زد‪B"I‬‬
‫א‪N #$‬אא نא‪"b,‬ن ‪ –3OF‬‬ ‫ذ‪''‰E0f‬وא‪,j''c #‬دאو=‪‰C‬م‬
‫=_‪v‬א‪,S#‬א‪U=Sy‬نو‪%‬د אوƒא د‪k‬א‪7RFH@ #9‬‬
‫|"‪ O 4€BCb93H‬ن‪S‬د‪ qP‬א_‪:'=7‬א‪،M CBCM‬وא‪./VF‬‬
‫‪9'b /‬د‪  % ./I‬א‪7'#‬א‪ IS‬א@‪ab‬אضא*‪)$$‬א&ص=‪" s‬‬
‫وא‪qPXv‬א_‪ƒ=7‬א "‪v#  J.‬ن= =‪K‬مא‪" s‬א*}‬
‫‪  x/F‬א‪3/S‬א א_‪E“,‬‬ ‫א'‪H$‬א‪,‬א\‪5g‬א‪ K(8)H" s‬‬
‫=   "‪<\PB‬عא‪H" s‬א*\}‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪64‬‬
‫وא@‪،>"XV#$‬و‪„bO /‬نא=‪ #‬دא א_‪ < "BS#$‬نאא'‪3o‬‬
‫א@‪ #9‬ل‪W2$‬א‪KC‬א*‪, / x‬ول‪ K‬א‪، S#'D‬و‪  Cb‬نא‪ #9‬لא@"‪,#‬א‪X‬‬
‫و"‪ % 4#.4€O=R/rB‬ن ‪,‬و= ‪,‬א=‪,‬א")א‪ls‬א‪ b‬وא‪% 4#‬‬
‫وא‪+  T.4،" s‬‬ ‫‪ "./  6‬א]\<ع‪ 0‬א@‪ #9‬ل‪،‬‬
‫‪./Vx/‬א ‪ :‬ن‪ŽK#F‬وعدو‪ C 3/‬ن‪+ XsF4/P,C‬دو \}‪qP‬‬
‫‪<\P‬عدول \}†‪I,f#‬אد=<= ‪5>SFŽI,4/‬א_א‪،c%‬‬
‫א وא‪K' D‬و‪4‬א‪B#9‬و‪P‬ن‪  $‬و=‪5 6)#‬א‪4R‬א‪,‬ول‪F‬دא‪/‬‬
‫=‪ 4‬א‪‹D‬א‪H‬وא_‪wv‬א‪''>/,y‬وא‪4 ''c#‬نوא‪ C./SG‬ن ‪،> /‬و™‪>":‬‬
‫ن دא‪ = n‬א‪  qP‬א‪,‬ول‬ ‫‪9‬ل‪WS= 0‬א*‪+Cb{"3./‬؛‬
‫"‪،>B‬و‪'M/‬‬ ‫‪„b‬نאא א‪,m"b,‬ون"‪ OF B‬א‪y‬‬
‫‪ –3‬אא ع‪./‬אوƒ‪  4€،‬ن و@‪H‬א‪,‬ول ‪/o‬د>=>‪ƒ,‬‬
‫‪./K#F‬א‪,‬ولא   "‪™PB‬د‪J‬ق ‪ C‬ن=‪K(10)>nS‬وא ‪v#‬א*‪ "*$$‬ل‬
‫‪b,‬ع"‪>'MF.‬دون>‪5 ،< =>< =,,‬א‪./pM‬א‪o",)x9‬א_‪v‬‬
‫و€‪ /S=> 4‬ن‪ .\¡+,‬אא א‪4$V4‬א‪K==Sy‬‬
‫‪F‬אא' ‪FX =3‬مدو)‪ B"on‬א‪I-)'b #‬א‪O'+‬א‪،BCM‬زد‪I‬‬
‫‪$‬سد"‪bo‬صא@‪S#$‬אوא'‪ PB" K(9)o‬لא&‪hn‬א‪,‬א\‪,‬ول‪ K‬‬
‫;‪o‬א‪>Q‬دא‪H‬א'=‪!S=S‬אא ‬ ‫وא ‪v#‬א‪b y‬زאא@‪“956‬‬
‫א"‪iB‬א‪p‬א‪,‬א\‪,‬ول א‪I,,s‬و‪M/‬ع" >;‪L‬وא‪,S=-C‬‬
‫وא‪B"ca‬א*‪7$‬א‪,‬א\وא‪=P3ƒ #‬אز‪,‬א>א‪+*L'M#‬‬
‫‪4R/‬א‪>>%‬א'‪$‬א&‪،%‬و‪F‬א‬ ‫‪7-‬وא'‪ Ko‬‬
‫‪ca‬אא "‪D"FX =B‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟــﻮﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﺠﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫=‪5,m،Il/S‬א‪4$o>F„bI,9/ $,D‬א‪/†#¢V$‬‬
‫א‪B""M‬א=‪K‬אא")وא‪w>  /." +CM‬א‪3 -#‬א'‪$‬א&‪،%‬‬
‫ مא‪,‬و)\‪PB#9 $7;:'=0‬ن''وא‪"3, ''c#‬م‪ B"1996‬ن‬
‫‪M‬ضא@‪   ™Œ،HM‬א‪,‬ول;‪j L‬لא'‪H$‬א‪,‬و‪."#¢‬‬
‫‪ ./ S#/‬نא א‪ /‬א‪3o'SS‬א‪ IaM‬א'‪H$‬א&‪ K(11)%‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫‪65‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‬

‫وא‪S‬دא‪y‬وא‪>#>%‬א‪,‬ول‪،‬و‪ab3‬א‪H‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪:‬‬


‫\}و‪./}\ " Q‬א‪,‬ول‪!F‬‬ ‫'  ‪k-qPF B‬א\‪V#‬ل‬
‫א‪#‬אزن=א موא&ص‪،‬و)‪ ./\U‬אא א‪x "b,‬دو‪3-0‬‬
‫אא א‪I,,s‬و‪/‬א‪L'M $$ I4b,r‬א‪KC‬א‪,‬و)‪K‬وذ‪:‬א ‪./,,‬‬
‫‪M/‬د†‪c‬א مא‪,‬و)"‪.‬א&‪ hn‬א‪ qP‬نא‪F#$,D‬א‪"b,‬‬
‫א‪,‬א\‪,‬ول‪F‬وز‪E1998 Rose‬؛و‪ £‬وא‪/,S@E/vg‬ن‪L'M‬א‪b‬و‪ S/‬‬
‫Ž‪,9,,‬د‪  H‬אوƒא‪,‬وא‪,‬د‪9 I‬ل<‪ S#'/ x/‬א@دא*و=)‬
‫‪>D‬א‪,‬ول‪،}\ 9F./K‬א‪ ƒF‬و"د‪I‬א‪Tb #‬א*‪ qP¥/‬و=‪ K‬‬
‫‪P‬ند‪%‬دא‪0‬א ‪+‬א‪+‬‬ ‫‪X@m‬א‪x9‬ن‪  qP‬א‪D‬א&‪0‬‬
‫*‪#FP,S=  /9+‬ج‪B"SS9W  x L $M‬א مא‪,‬و))‪U'/‬‬
‫ @‪3‬א'‪$‬א&‪،%‬و‪# ! $,‬ج‪Sh-†qP‬م ‪B"$$‬א‪IX‬‬
‫‪5‬א ‪qP‬א‪a$‬دאد  ‪  0M‬א‪'“9‬ق‪g،‬א‪BS‬אא א‪,S#‬‬
‫א*‪C‬א‪4M‬א א‪,S#‬א‪ y‬א‪ @$,/I,,s‬د‪UR=Agnostic‬ن‬
‫‪! J‬א‪,‬א‪,/3H$‬אنא'‪ $‬א‰א ‪+‬א‪K(13)OS.4€+‬و‪./‬‬
‫א&‪ ،%‬א‪M#$‬د‪./< H‬אא‪ /‬א‪ D‬אא ) ‪./" j‬א*‪p$‬‬
‫א*‪$$‬א‪4#y‬دא‪3>9J n‬‬ ‫א א‪Hc/y‬אא א‪ K(12)I,,s‬‬
‫‪ ƒ,.4{،W$/qPbCP‬א'‪$‬א&‪,S//W %‬אא‪=v#$‬‬
‫א ‪D"FX =x9‬وא‪ 3I,9‬א‪,‬و‪HJl<E F‬وא_א‪cb‬א&‪./%‬‬
‫‪:‬א‪,‬א\؟‪,9+ qP‬‬
‫‪/  %‬א‪>%‬א‪ D‬‬ ‫‪j‬لא'‪H$‬א‪,‬و‪،‬و‪- ¤P‬‬
‫א‪,,3o, "U'D‬א‪$,D‬א*‪ .4€ x‬ن‪Ll#‬א'‪,, "$‬وم‪7c9‬‬
‫א‪,2#$‬א‪< 3/‬א'‪qP,,% $‬א'؟  '‪:v#‬א‪,‬و‪E F‬‬
‫א&‪ %‬وƒא‪/c‬نوא‪4D‬ن‪،‬א =‪qP  <b  4R‬א_א‪ cb‬م‪qP‬‬
‫‪„b‬نא\‪#‬א‪$,D‬א‪ <, $ D‬א‪,,>#‬א‪H‬؟Š‪5."=%‬א*‪:™،p$‬‬
‫‪c% 3WVx/،$‬א‪ ./X‬و="‪B‬א‪,#/‬אد "‪B‬א‪ “9‬ن‪S#$/ 2#‬م=‪+ O‬دو‬
‫א‪S‬ن‪;qP18‬א‪S‬ن‪!/,،20‬אא  ‪3‬و‪F C‬س‪،E‬و"‪PO‬ن‪ '/:‬‬
‫א‪/vg‬و‪c%/M0‬אو‪-@ b‬א‪ cb‬אא א‪I,,s‬و‪3  x #>"M‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪66‬‬
‫א‪L4M#‬א‪53W,‬א*‪,,p$‬א‪, WS-# / ،‬א‪>b‬و’‪،>_/‬و  ‪v‬‬
‫= 'א א‪,S#‬א‪,s‬د‪Lb‬ون ن "‪.‬א ‪./OF‬א‪,:$ D‬ول ن )‬
‫א ‪X‬א‪H‬א ‪  x/‬א‪/vg‬א‪,C>'MF "b,‬א‪ #9‬لم ‪+‬دو=‪K v#‬‬
‫'!دא‪K|3--0 n‬א_@‪ H‬و >=‪ 4R‬א‪<\„=gk  '+‬ع‬
‫\‪،pJ‬و=*‪}9‬م‪X@m‬א‪x9‬ن א~\‪ .‬وא‪،o>"X<S‬و‪aM‬ض‪5‬‬
‫"‪,R9B‬و‪c‬‬ ‫=‪fN'#‬א ‪X‬א‪H‬א =>‪%Pƒ,‬א‪ X‬א  نא‪,‬ول‪#$‬‬
‫‪76‬ذ  ‪X = WJ.">  ›N$$‬و‪,‬א>‪F‬אزن‬
‫א'‪$‬א&‪،%‬وذ‪ I,"'/WJ."f‬دא\)‪ E‬و‪,K 6‬א>‪ ,K/‬א‪H‬دول‬
‫\}‪JP3‬א‪FHM-#‬אزن\‪KE)%‬‬ ‫א‪9o>  ¦3x9‬لא‪S‬د‬
‫و‪F‬א*نא‪,‬ول‪K#‬دא‪r n‬א‪ S#'D‬‬ ‫א&‪%‬وא_א‪cb‬א‪y‬א‪>>%‬א‪,‬ول‪ K‬‬
‫‪qP‬אא_‪ 4€,‬א‪S‬ل‪P‬ن‪ 5‬و‪,9K#‬و•א‪„b، RD‬نא‪#‬אزن‬
‫א‪)=SD‬א*‪Vl#$@/XV/x‬ل‪b‬א‪ O 4€ ,n‬ن‪  WS-#‬ن‪+ :'4‬دو و‬
‫אא ‪  3‬א'‪$‬א&‪,/ B#9%‬אوא‪/./-C‬دא‪IS‬‬
‫‪ : v#F‬א‪ RD‬وא‪uD‬زقא‪،(14) ، #‬و‪g‬א ‪S/HM$‬א‪ $ b†m/H‬‬
‫و‪WS-#‬אא‪./,=@ƒ,g‬א‪/P."1815 3W #‬زن=א‪}S‬א*وو=‬
‫א ‪H‬אא و‪Mb /‬אط א‪,!SJ ,Sb،}‹4‬و‪Ž3$‬ق‬
‫‪5‬א ‪‚ = bH‬א_@‪H‬א&‪  K0‬و=‪،‬و‪,‬א '‪،P3‬و‪=,‬و‪$‬‬
‫‪3‬א‪,‬و‪HV‬א*‪! % =،FD‬א‪D‬א‪HV0‬‬
‫‪ J2.2‬א ‪H‬אא א&‪./W0‬‬
‫א‪,‬و‪49‬א"‪،F=B‬و "د‪H‬‬
‫=אو‪H9‬א א‪ D‬و‪j3b‬ل‬
‫‪  O"!F/qP'Fb‬א‪Ix‬‬
‫א ‪HV‬א‪,‬ووא‪S=V"gy‬د‬
‫א‪K'FM‬و د‪fH‬א‪S‬אא‪/qPH‬א‬
‫א*‪$$‬وא_א‪cb‬א‪,‬د‪I‬‬
‫ دو§\}‪MF,c@“£‬ذ"‪.‬‬
‫'‪$‬א&‪,0 4€،%‬א‪H" #‬‬
‫א_‪,‬ودא‪ K(15)/$D‬‬
‫א א‪ W#‬‬
‫• אאزن ‪5!bC W‬‬
‫•  אزنא‪/, "W‬א‪O%‬دو‬
‫א  ‪,S‬א‪II,,%H‬א'=‪،S‬‬
‫‪ –3SS94R//‬א‪،BCM‬‬
‫‪U=U #“9‬نא‪,‬ول‪##$‬אزن‪,C‬‬
‫‪>F4/„b‬א‪qPXv‬א‪,2#$‬אمא‪IS‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫‪67‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‬

‫א‪,,>#‬א‪،H‬و‪3o4-#fSJ‬א‪ ,,>#‬و ‘א‪Ha‬א‪,‬ووא‪S‬א"‪,‬א‪4R#D‬‬


‫‪Ll#/GVG‬א‪a/'n H‬א=‪W‬א‪,SD‬א‪ H‬وא‪L D‬وא‪  ،H'$mD‬ن ‪m‬‬
‫א‪  RF4‬א]‪HF4/‬א '‪ 4‬א‪ }+cD‬نא‪S#$‬א ‪F+‬مدو)‬
‫وא@‪#‬د‪,‬و‪،E‬وא‪ls‬א‪/ ،b‬ن=‪ S‬א‪#‬ز‪K‬א<  ‪=IS¥‬‬
‫و‪P‬دא‪H‬א אא ‪,‬وא‪K F‬و= ‪HV" }\ I‬א'א‪,=y‬א\‪،O‬وא"‪ #‬دא"‪B‬‬
‫‪P‬ذא ‪!-0‬دو‪/‬ون‪ > /‬ذ‪Pf‬ن‪:‬א ‪D‬א_ ‘=א‪$‬‬
‫و‪l>$‬ن‪P‬دא‪H‬א‪ },,,>#‬א‪IS‬א*‪4/‬و‪qP  $‬א‪Pf4M#‬ذא‬
‫دول \}‪„b،‬نא‪a$‬א‪Hv‬א‪#‬אزن –>‪Io–  x/H,H‬א‪ K‬‬
‫ل‪F‬אل‪E‬א ‪F)W‬‬ ‫•‬ ‫‪o>$$B". >#$‬א&‪K %‬و=‪)#‬‬
‫Ž"!א@‪H‬א‪I,-#D‬א*‪a$@ = 34/‬א‪v‬א@‪S#$‬א=‪، g‬و  ‬
‫‪,9P‬א•אزندא\)و\‪L'MB" >F:S")%‬א א‪ /‬א‪  -#'D‬و‪f4M‬‬
‫א_‪7‬א ‪D‬א‪DFx‬א‪>%‬א‪ H,-#‬א‪Ha‬א‪,‬ووא@‪GPB"56‬ذ‪qPf‬‬
‫א'‪،#b‬و‪3‬א >>א‪-#‬א‪\ )=l‬א_‪K7‬و= ‪FH/,S/B"X‬‬
‫א‪-#‬א‪+‬د‪5‬א@دא'‪ Syb‬א@‪S#$‬א=‪5w# #'، g‬א  ن‬
‫"‪K|B‬א*‪،I, 0‬و ‪5,S#‬א  ن א‪,‬ولא‪ <M#$I'D‬א@‪S=–M#9‬د‪،I‬‬
‫‪/‬א‪,‬ولא*‪l0‬א‪ /‚b <My‬ز"‬ ‫‪K/‬א‪IS‬א'‪ :3#b‬و=‪,,>#‬‬
‫‪V/‬زم_‪>/4‬و ‪, K#/,‬وאن ‪5‬א‪S‬د‪c #$>F„bI‬ع‪>o qP‬‬
‫‪,=FS/'FI:'4B#9‬و‬ ‫א‪ +‬د}‪5qP‬א ‪ K(16)v#‬‬
‫א אא ‪ 5! =W‬א‪،I'D‬و نא‪ #9‬لא‪#‬دم‪4$‬ن‬ ‫•‬
‫א "‪ qPLR9V/B‬نא‪,‬ول ‪L‬א— ن‪,‬א‪H‬א‪./7aSb‬‬
‫א‪bqP †S‬ض‪B">$‬א‪ K s‬א‪Kmb4#‬و‪W#‬אא‪B" -#‬א'ق‬
‫و"‪c%  B‬א‪X‬א مא‪,‬و)‪،‬و  א‪aM،0 D‬ض‪5‬א  ن‪c‬א‪I,‬‬
‫‪c #f‬زد‪H%‬א‪ 3/g‬د‪ H%‬א‪./,c$‬א‪ #9‬ل"‪,‬م‪B"C‬‬
‫א‪BCM‬א ‪K/‬و' ‪5B‬א  א‪MF‬אدא@‪H‬א‪I,-#D‬א*‪S=4/‬د‪I‬‬
‫‪‰ŽqPf‬א א‪  /‬א‪mD‬د‪ >–qP‬א مא ‪،)D‬و‪ #9=U #‬ل‪7RF‬א_‪7‬‬
‫و"‪B‬א*  ‪c‬א‪I,9,‬א‪3 > ='b D‬‬ ‫א‪ #‬ون=א‪}S‬א‪،}‹4‬و‹ز‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪68‬‬
‫‪=79JP‬د‪P@P،I‬ذא‪UJ‬א א‪ ¥‬א‪)BCM‬א‪ab‬אض‪H$'+c/‬‬
‫وو‪H,%‬وאŽ  ‪ K/4#SJ.‬א‪,‬و‪qP  ¤ F„b،‬א@"‪S#‬د=‪U‬ن‬
‫א ‪H‬אא ‪ B",m‬نא‪BCM‬‬ ‫\א‪ K(17)4=H‬‬
‫‪ J3.2‬א@‪ab‬א‪HC‬وא‪R‬وط  ‪TM =W‬א‪K|B"IS‬א‪,‬ول‪ x9‬‬
‫وא ‪WH‬א‪+,-#‬א  ‪ ".4،!F   3:‬א‪."I")BCM‬‬
‫א'‪$‬א&‪Ll#/ ./+ b /3. 4%‬ود‪%‬א‪M#>F‬و‪qP9./H‬‬
‫‪5‬א‪,D‬אسא א‪ "M‬وא ‪،}\ H‬و"‪PO‬ند‪I,%‬א‪,‬و"‪B‬‬
‫א&‪   /<B">S.4€0‬א@"‪ #‬د"‪M/$B‬ضو ‪M‬‬
‫א@‪./#¦HM‬دو*\}‪WVx/،‬‬ ‫‪<./‬א'‪$‬א&‪%‬؟ ‬
‫'  ‪F9 B‬א‪,‬ولא‪bqP}‹4‬ض‬
‫‪P‬نא]‪?:'9=%‬و‪ J?•M‬‬
‫א‪=Ha‬א‪,‬ولא‪}l‬א‪Q‬و‪،gI‬‬
‫‪},—/–Wohlforth‬א‪v'F‬م ‪c%‬א‪X‬‬
‫و=‪k)#‬دوא‪,‬وא‪' =}‹4‬‬
‫א ‪ b،< =>< =K/‬אא ‬
‫‪,‬وא‪3o'  /"=x—}l‬‬
‫‪c% GVGB"+#‬א‪WX‬א@‪ab‬א‪HC‬‬
‫‪ƒ CP‬א‪BCM‬؛ ‪./}\ " j3/‬‬
‫א‪،GVx‬وŽوط‪j‬ل‪W‬א ‪،‬‬
‫א‪5g.4€<S‬א‪,‬ول ن‪S /K#‬‬
‫وא‪m #‬א‪./,, bKH‬אא وא‬
‫نא‪IS‬אא‪bB" #$}‹4‬ض‬
‫א@‪S#F‬دא‪H‬א‪>%D‬א ¦‪5=N‬‬
‫א@‪B"X =KHM‬ذ‪:;{f‬א ‪H‬‬
‫א ‪0‬א‪g،(18)GVx‬א‪u\ >b‬ن‬
‫אא ‪5W3‬א‪TM =BCM‬א ‪N‬‬
‫Ž‪ n‬ن€‪  > 4‬ن‪S‬دא‪X\ qP‬‬
‫وא‪5B"IS‬א‪,‬ولو‪53‬א‪./" Q‬‬
‫‹}و‪ <qP‬א‪, "“9‬‬
‫א‪،<S‬و"‪ $B‬א‪xD‬ل‪Bv#‬א‪  -#‬‬
‫‪OS‬אא "‪B‬א'‪$‬א&‪ K%‬‬
‫א'=‪3W‬א‪,‬وא‪O$†+‬א@‪H‬‬
‫‪. 4‬א&‪U‬א*ول‪3‬א&‪ =N‬א‪4/ 3I,-#D‬א‪،B$‬وא@د‬
‫א@‪ab‬א‪HC‬وŽوطא‪Q‬ل‪b،‬א ن@ א*و=)‪S /3‬א‪S‬ن‪،‬و—و‪3$‬‬
‫‪CaM‬نא‪abBCM‬אض‪ ،+%‬و ©‪$‬א‪5g.4€“9،B$‬א*‪J‬אƒ‬
‫ن‪S‬م=‪,‬وא‪m+‬د‪ƒ  CPqP+‬‬ ‫=*‪/o}9‬א=‪9HFI‬ل‪/‬‬
‫‪Žb, "•,‬وط‪j‬ل‪ B ' /‬א‪BCM‬وא‪  "K(19) > /  S#‬نא' ‬
‫=*و‪C‬عא‪KCM‬א" ‪U=,S# F/,‬ن א‪. b D,9‬و‪)/‬د‪ƒ  CP%‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬
‫‪69‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‬

‫א‪BCM‬א‪U=S "b /7'#‬و‪C‬ع =‪،IS‬و€‪g.4‬אאאع ن ‪/, ":R‬‬


‫א‪,‬ولא‪، D‬وא=<‪aM//N‬ض ‪5Ll#‬א‪ KHa‬‬
‫و‪‰Sb‬א'=‪,،W‬و نא ‪H‬‬ ‫ن‪S‬م=‪O‬א'‪$‬א&‪ K%‬‬
‫‹زא&‪U‬א‪, ")Fx‬א&‪ =N‬אא †‪ f#‬دوא‪  -# bH‬א'‪$‬‬
‫א@‪ab‬א‪HC‬وא‪m #‬א‪„b،(20)H‬ذאא"‪ U\F,S#‬א&‪/*=T>S.4،%‬א‪،g‬‬
‫نאאعא@‪ab‬אضא‪ 3+cD‬وא_  ‪?:'9‬و‪P3Bv#?•M‬دא‬
‫אא ‪ OF >F  </v#FqP   $،‬א א@‪ 4Contingent nature #9‬‬
‫"‪ B‬ن ‪5‬א ‪ H‬وא‪ŽB"ƒ #‬وطא‪Q‬ل‬ ‫‪!F M‬א‪ ,‬ول‪#$>F„b‬‬
‫‪4‬نود‪56‬א~\‪ : 6 % ./.‬א‪/ ،F O"W +‬א'‪m‬אل"‪.‬‬
‫‪@=%]b،/9B"W#$F‬‬ ‫"א‪:‬אאع‪،‬و‪gSJ‬אא@‪ #9‬ل@™‪:‬‬
‫ن‪ WF‬و‪H = #'F‬אא ‪4#$ L;،‬ن‪، 0‬و;‪5:#/‬‬
‫نאא@‪ #9‬ل‪ OVJPB"--0T‬א‪)./"FU'D‬א'‪$‬א&‪%‬‬
‫*نא ‪H‬אא ‪'M‬א_‪7‬و‪ 'M‬א‪4#€+‬ن‪،S "b /‬و ‬
‫‪f‬א'‪،o‬و= 'א ‪‹# S=$ = WS-#‬אא א‪,S#‬א‪I,,s‬‬
‫א'‪:l/, "o‬א*‪7$‬א‪) ،7-'n‬א]‪J‬א*‪=K v  <b‬א م‬
‫و=‪„b)#‬نא ‪HV‬אدא‪ >-F,y‬وא&ص)‪,2#' $f،(22‬مאא]‪J‬‬
‫=‪./" j‬א‪,‬ول‪ .4€،‬ن‪4‬ن ‪,‬א‪$‬א‪ -#‬אא )'‪$‬א&‪ K%‬‬
‫‪< <Víéq…^¤]<í‰^éŠ×Ö<êÃÎ]çÖ]<Øé×vjÖ]<I3‬‬ ‫‪ <%#F‬وو‪.‬א‪:'=o> = bBCM‬‬
‫א‪:a‬א)א‪+‬אŽ‪O#Ja‬א‪}S‬‬
‫‪P‬ن‪L'Mo,S‬א‪$'H‬א&‪%‬‬
‫א‪،}‹4‬و€‪HV f.4‬אد‬
‫‪:#‬א‪=K s‬א*‪49‬مא ‪/‬‬
‫א'‪./" j=I,n‬א‪,‬ول ن>‬
‫و\‪،9  H0‬وא‪ ž9VD‬ن‬
‫ ‪o>%_v#‬א‪DaRD‬א‪>%‬دو و‬
‫אא )‪B"! =4b$,/‬‬
‫‪" j‬دول \ })‪K(21‬و‪4‬א‪#3‬‬
‫‪$‬س‪./#/‬א‪$ D‬א_‪3SS‬‬
‫א_‪U ##‬א ‪H‬אא =‪ #9‬ل‬
‫א'‪$‬א&‪f) =،%‬‬
‫;‪7‬אאع‪93‬و‪%‬د‪0\H‬‬
‫א*‪x‬א‪c#‬א‪،/"HFX =‰ =/‬‬
‫و‪m'bO /‬אلא‪D‬و‰ ‪W‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪70‬‬
‫א‪#$‬عאא ن ن‪Sb‬א=‪ 5‬א@‪ab‬א‪HC‬אא א*‪،$$‬وא*‪./o‬‬
‫ذ‪,mf‬א‪ B"S#‬نא'‪H$‬‬ ‫א‪H< #‬א‪ #‬؟ ‬
‫‪ŒH=S/ J1.3‬سא'‪ $‬א‪,‬و‪FK/W 1900 $3‬אزن‬
‫א&‪%‬אא ‪LxW‬א‪F/‬دƒ א‪}S‬و‪,C  ,‬א‪-D‬אو‪K(23)$‬‬
‫א‪,2#$‬א‪ 0/‬و‪  C‬אא  ‪F"3‬א_)”‪ ,‬نאא‪, # S#‬‬
‫=‪#‬אزن‪b /K/‬د‪FB" 9 H<#SDS‬א‪#‬אزن=‪,,>#‬و"‪B‬א‪H  2#‬‬
‫א ‪< /‬א*‪ /‬א‪y‬ود‪3H‬אא ‬ ‫‪ 0 3‬عא'‪ K$‬‬
‫א‪K"b,‬و د‪  WU‬א*‪L/‬אو‪)$‬‬
‫‪:#1900 $3‬وزא_‪7‬אو‪)$‬‬
‫‪PqP‬دא‪O‬א )א‪PB#9OFU=,M+‬ذא‬
‫א*‪''L/‬و=‪S''Kuropatkin4‬א‬
‫‪!0‬א‪IS‬אو‪BS#$>F„b <=$‬‬
‫Ž‪."V/‬א‪  C‬א@‪a$‬א‪O $oGv‬‬
‫‪,‬وو‪,>/‬د‪،.\¡I‬و† >‪./o‬‬
‫‪qP‬א‪,  '4 S‬א‪،)Fx‬و‪.  <,‬‬
‫א¦ذ‪%P‬א‪X‬א‪</H‬د‪,>,I‬د ‪./‬و‪ K$‬‬
‫‪ ،/H  ¦GVG‬وא‪> /,9‬ن‬
‫‪:#1907  $3‬א‪)$/=,‬‬ ‫‪Lx/‬א‪,v‬لو ‹"‪,SbKIbFIL=.‬‬
‫‪!F‬و‪ R#/I$‬و@‪#‬ج א‹‪ '')F‬و‪I/''Sir Eyre Crowe‬‬
‫‪>_/‬א‪qPs‬א‪./,cD‬א'‪,9/4- H$‬د‪>b‬א_‪"PqP%‬د‪O%I‬‬
‫א‪*،  $#‬ن ‪m$K$+‬د‪$' / qP #9+‬א&‪%‬א‹‪،F‬و‪3‬‬
‫‪7"P‬א‪,‬ولא*\}و‪5o  0 o qPo> b,‬א‪,ID‬م‪c #/V‬א‬
‫‪/‬د>‪o‬وא‪،,C-#‬و‪_ 53‬א‪IS‬א]|Š‪‹/‬א‪J‬‬
‫א_‪I!F >/‬و‪$‬و‪ !F >/‬وא‪H,-#‬א*‪$$‬א‪ 0>Cby‬د‬
‫‪KFD‬وא‪,2#$‬م''و''‪F‬אزنא‪}S‬‬ ‫‪,"  J‬א‪>n‬א‪ -##$>F„b، #‬‬
‫= =و=‪/+ wn#FI'S‬א‪>%‬و‪K|qPF=%9L'M# <#$‬و‪x4‬‬
‫‪qP‬א‪S‬م=‪/ 4‬و‪/ M¦ % ./> $‬אدא‪ƒ,>=n<#D‬א‪#9‬א‪X‬א‪IS‬‬
‫‪I,9‬א‪#‬א‪K/H‬א‪}S‬א‪}‹4‬א*\}‪PK‬ذא א*‪! | ،FD‬א‪=ID‬א‪,U#‬‬
‫=א‪$‬א‪B"ca‬א‪IS‬א '‪,‬ول א )אא )"‪U'/B‬א‪IS‬א‪/R‬‬
‫وא@‪ #9‬لא‪,‬א‪7R on‬אאع‪ ž9VF،‬ن و=‪H$'M/ s /‬א‪,‬א\‬
‫ ''و=‪$ B"¥/''4‬س‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫‪71‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‬

‫א*‪،FD‬و‪PSJ‬دא‪mŽI‬ونא_‪ o4‬א*‪،4/‬و<  ‪.‬א‪  -#‬א)‬


‫''‪''v '4‬د"‪qPI‬א‪،Ll#‬وق‪qP‬‬ ‫و‪f‬א א)‪ K(24‬‬
‫‪%''," ،1946  $3‬ج ن'' א@‪r‬طא '‪ISª‬א*‪ =S/34/‬‬
‫א'‪LM‬א*‪3)4/‬א@دא'‪XM9I)/  yb‬א@‪H‬א‪I,-#D‬א*‪4/‬‬
‫وא‪>Ž ./I,9‬א‪D‬א‪H‬א‪ 3 3$/=,‬و=و©‪>  \qPbC]=،$‬‬
‫و‪ #‬א‪،0 D‬دא"‪>b‬وאŽ  ‪ qP.‬א‪Tn‬א‪3 x #D‬א@دא'‪yb‬وא ‪,,‬‬
‫א@‪v #$‬ل‪$$¥3‬א@‪#9‬א‪./ , CX‬א‪,‬ولא] א*\}‪K‬وא ‪S‬א‪'n‬‬
‫א‪IS‬א'‪ B", “9،# b‬ن ‪53‬א‪,‬א‪FOF )$‬א_א< ‬
‫א@دא'‪3yb‬و‪ ./O 4†  C‬א‪„b،4/ I!'/y‬نوאŽ ‪:™.‬‬
‫>‪c/,,‬אنא‪}S‬א ‪،)D‬و نא‪/: R‬ل "> ن@ل‪M /‬د‪>j  I‬دא>‪،‬‬
‫دא\‪/qP‬א‪0‬א‪P@PK$#‬ذאوא‪ IO#>%‬و ن  "‪B‬د‪>nM9Kb‬وŽ‪qP>n‬‬
‫ذא‪H‬وزن‪   } \ I/SF<  KT /‬א‪./,cD‬א ‪#9@X:‬א‪X‬א‪IS‬‬
‫"‪B‬א‪D‬دœא ‪/‬אא ‪ c #/  F‬א'‪،#b‬و‪,"  S‬د "‪,‬א‪>n‬א‪ #‬‬
‫‪,S‬א‪H‬א'  ‪#b‬وא*‪WJ." 4/‬א‪ #$‬אوא‪I,9./M2#‬‬
‫وא‹‪،F‬وא* א‪Dl‬א‪c‬א‪ }S‬א‪K/'b D‬א@دא'‪V\./yb‬ل‬
‫א*‪3$$‬א {‪،‬وא‪3fR‬א&=‪/ H‬א‪n,>$$0‬א‪#‬א‪H‬א‪ D‬و‪3b‬‬
‫א‪;V‬א‪qP>%D‬א {‪ ƒJ./‬א‪l‬א‪MF@=$/=,‬אج)‪ K(26‬‬
‫ א*‪x/‬א'=‪},/S‬א‪ lF‬س‬ ‫א‪،Fs‬وא‪B"ca‬א‪-D‬א<‪S‬‬
‫‪" v‬وא‪ #9‬ل‪7RF‬אאع‪V"K(25)E‬و‪)$Œ I‬א'‪$‬א&‪3%‬א‪,S#‬‬
‫"‪ B‬نאא‪xD‬ل‪kC‬א"‪ #‬د'' ن'' א‪+4M‬אא )‪«S# |o>b،‬ن‬
‫"‪F)I,\FB‬אزنא‪TMF ،}S‬א‪I4M‬אא א‪ B" D‬‬
‫و‪f‬א"‪ #‬د‪W " B"5‬و‪*W " bF‬و‪C‬عא‪IS‬א 'א‪h¦y‬‬
‫|"‪  –3‘ H‬א‪BCM‬وא‪%‬د‬ ‫א‪H$'IL‬א‪,‬א\א'‪ K#b‬‬
‫‪,=3‬אא'  ‪, ،H‬سא‪ Tn‬א‪,‬א‪H$'on‬א‪KIS‬و‪0V\H‬‬
‫''‪R#‬د‪'4F‬ن''و‪4b + ''5L4$‬و‪X@mHR /‬א'‪qP$‬‬
‫' ‪"]''v‬د‪O%I‬א'‪$‬א&‪ HF %‬د€‪< / x//0‬א*‪./‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ 72
H,=‫و‬، '‫א‬f‫ذ‬Wb‫و‬I‫אد‬7_‫وא א‬GU< o> 4‫و‬،,,>#‫אزنא‬F‫و‬
، S#'D‫א‬3JIaM #'#$>FU‫" و‬V‫= ‚א‬H'=o>FX =3
 x†9'‫א‬B">–‫א‬,,%V/".4 ‫א‬g‫و‬،bSx‫وא‬¢#‫ א‬/‫وو= א‬,‫א‬
  n2/''y b'‫א‬,nS‫ومא‬,3 I,,s‫א‬,S#‫نאא א‬P‫ل‬S‫א‬K#'F
v‫א‬a$‫א‬3‫Žع‬+‫ƒ''א‬R=;
WSqPO# / 3B '
3H@‫ ز‬o,S!/c#$‫א‬I,,%$/=‫ د‬H<#S/‫د=א و‬R D‫אزنא‬#‫א‬
X‫!وא‬Fy ‫א‬S ‫<א‬S‫א‬./‫د‬,"  K$‫و‬,D‫א_א‬
I,-#D‫א‬H@yb'‫א@دא‬/\ $'‫دאسא‬H=S/ J2.3
W  #"‫א!א‬TMF3،>nM9‫ولאن و‬W ‫אא‬%&‫א‬
œ‫د‬/./I,,%" j''ƒR=;'' ‫ א‬#$=%&‫א‬$'‫א‬3‫א*د€ن‬
L4M#=''!b"%&‫א‬$'‫ א‬.4# ‫אא‬H =F #$@‫א‬
،''New political thinking,,s‫)א‬$'‫ '' א‬xF;/cF''‹# ‫و‬،,S ‫א‬o>#$‫دא‬
‫م‬FX =‫وزאאعو‬6qPO#$‫ دא"=א‬$,D‫א‬qP # D‫=א‬./I>Žx*‫א‬
$'‫@ ن;)א‬P،,,%)D" ‫ن‬S‫א‬./‫א א*ول‬3 ‫אא‬
‫א‬./!=‫א‬4/ 3%&‫אא  א‬4b*‫ א‬#$‫א‬,‫و‬،.R ‫א‬
"‫د‬2D‫و‬O‹#"‫وא‬,,s‫א‬L4M#‫ א‬O#/49$'"‫@ذ‬H‫دא‬S#F‫א‬o,S#
H@‫ ز‬o,SqP> b‫=ود‬l‫}א‬S‫ א‬I‫אد‬7_‫ نא‬B", ‫و‬،%&‫א‬
 $3Ll#‫ نאא‬H,S#"‫وא‬،IL\ +‫د‬m."R‫א‬7‫א‬c9*‫ א‬,C>%D‫א‬
K/‫و‬،(28)‫א‬,%‫ودא‬,‫ن‬4$4$/ I,-#D‫א‬H@‫א‬X‫א‬," I‫زد‬qP@P
x9‫א‬./ILl0 !Ff‫ ذ‬B"X =‫و‬، RD‫א‬Ix‫و‬4/*‫א‬
،+,%rB"#b'‫א‬4b*‫א‬H\ ,C4'" =4/ ‫نم‬Pf‫ذ‬
H‫א‬Ll•‫و‬,9F4/PB"H,  ‫ و‬$'‫א‬GU},/E'M‫ م‬#b

B"  xD=7l‫ ‹}Ž ندא‬+ /  -#=4/*‫א‬%&‫א‬
 K''ƒR=;''H@‫ ز‬  K(27) ‫אא‬$,D‫א‬
‫ن‬M#$''RF‫ش‬S ‫لאא‬V\‫و‬ ،\©M@x/‫م‬,SF‫  ن‬#"#$=
S/Stephen Sestanovich''‘#bF#'$ >F,9 K#{H F x‫) وא\א‬Mb

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫‪73‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪3‬א~و‪F‬א*\‪. <#x/  ،IL‬‬ ‫" א‪ƒR=;$$''>F‬א&‪W%‬‬


‫د=‪$/‬א@‪r‬ط؟''‪،‬وא‪ƒJ./C / ./VF‬دא‪)$‬א‪  -#‬אא )‬
‫א@‪ab‬א‪HC‬אא א‪،s‬א‪ ‰a‬ن '‪$‬א&‪:/./,, %‬‬
‫‪-/‬א‪" s‬وא‪TFIS‬א‪SD‬د  אא א‪y‬د"!א@‪H‬א‪I,-#D‬‬
‫א‪i‬א‪L4M#/R‬א‪ v9)E, ,s‬א*‪c;qP4/‬وא אق‪ J20023‬‬
‫א*‪$‬س‪3‬א'‪،$‬وא‪/‬د‪،2003 h-bqP5‬و‪,U‬א‪$]WD‬א‪K n‬و;‪o‬‬
‫א‪  C‬א_‪SS‬א‪ISI,,s‬א@د א\‪ƒV#‬א‪„b 0M#‬ن‪5‬א_א‪D‬‬
‫א'‪  x†>F*yb‬א‪Ll#=v#$‬א‪‹D =F H‬א‪H‬א‪'' xF;/''>/,y‬‬
‫א_‪30‬א‪،IS‬و ‪,"B",‬م   ‪S" /‬د‪./‬א‪./c‬وא‪ 3h2#y‬ن‬
‫א*‪4b‬א‪,93I,,s‬ذא>‪ >F L;،‬א‪xD‬א‪,,3JMD‬א‪-D‬‬
‫"‪!'4‬و‪ o$''ƒR=;''./‬א*‪ 4/‬د‪qPH‬אع‪c\3‬א‪,‬‬
‫| ‪$'I0‬א‪n,>#‬א‪ #‬زא‪," y‬دא*"‪,‬א‪X‬وא'ع‪F‬قא@‪c#‬א‪,S=H/‬‬
‫‪>9‬א@‪r‬ط‪K‬و‪ž9@,‬אא‪v# “9‬وز‪/‬אدא‪ K,‬‬
‫‪<í{{‰^éŠÖ]<Ø{{é׀<»<í{{éÃÎ]çÖ]<Ý]‚~j{{‰]<I4‬‬ ‫نא‪,‬ول† ‪‰JqP‬א*‪4b‬א‪ƒ,>y‬‬
‫‪6qP‬وزאאع‪< <Víéq…^¤] S#M>F }/, "NSb‬‬
‫‪qP‬א‪IS‬א‪/./> 4†y‬א‪0‬א‬
‫‪b /  % ./‬א‪I,S‬א‪-#‬א‪ #‬‬
‫אאع‪  ،‬د نא‪,‬ولא‪f†I> D‬‬
‫א ‪  4€،‬ن‪'F‬د= ‚א*‪x/‬א‪y‬‬
‫‪3‬א_‪\I,"SS‬א‪ x/}\ H‬א‪,2#$‬אم‬
‫‪>b CF‬אن‪WS % ./‬אزن‪)x/‬‬
‫א‪a$@IS‬دאد‪K > /‬و=‪=)#‬א‪$‬‬
‫=‪‰ J‬אא ‪/"FI=3‬‬
‫א‪=K s‬א א ‪/‬و‪O#b /‬א‪."MD‬‬
‫وא  =א‪5W#IL4‬א "‪B‬‬
‫א_‪7‬אد‪I‬وא'‪H$‬א'‪#b‬؛‬
‫‪}#'/‬א‪3$ D‬א'‪$‬א&‪،%‬و=;‪o‬‬
‫א‪#$‬ع''‪ ''‘#bF#'$‬ن‪v#FqP 0#‬‬
‫א‪,#‬א\ אא‪=k  C‬א‪D‬دœאא ‬
‫‪ >F </‬ن‪#2#$4$/‬א‪n,>#‬و‪T‬‬
‫ود ‪H4/‬א'‪$‬א&‪„b،%‬ن‬
‫א_‪،7‬وא<‪K sk‬א‪ , = bx9‬ن‬
‫א ‪H‬אא @< ‪$*=.‬سא_ل‬
‫א@‪r‬طŽ‪ 4‬א‪IS‬א‪}‹4‬א‪y‬د‪H‬‬
‫"‪‰C=o'#  B‬وא‪،(29) ,‬و‪ b‬‬
‫א'‪$‬א&‪%‬א'‪">F3#b‬‬
‫)‪ x/ R#4 $‬ض ‪V"g‬‬
‫א_‪7‬אد‪ KI‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪74‬‬
‫= ‪H‬אא وא‪#y‬ج‪ ,c/qP /‬אد‪5.4،(30)I‬א‪ s‬א*\‪‹IL‬ز‬
‫‪U/‬زق‪W‬א "‪/9B‬دون‬ ‫‪./‬א‪L4M#‬وא‪ K /U#‬‬
‫א‪,2#$‬אم‪5 0M‬א_@‪ #$‬ق‬ ‫‪G‬ﻣﺜﺎﻝ)‪ :(1‬ﻋﺪﻡ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺤـــﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺩﺭﺓ‪ :‬‬
‫א ‪،‬و€‪FW\ x‬دون‬
‫‪'',‬وא‪ 1988  $3''c#‬نא_‪7‬‬
‫‪/‬א"‪ŽI‬وط‪ Kgj‬‬
‫אد‪ =3#/ 4R=Iv#/I‬א'‪$‬‬
‫‪G‬ﻣﺜﺎﻝ )‪ :(2‬ﺣﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻜـ?ﻯ ﰲ ﺃﻭﺭﺑـﺎ‬ ‫א‪,‬و‪, =/IaM‬א_‪7‬א ‪،D‬و ‪>F‬‬
‫‪/BS#$‬دא‪5!/‬א ‪KI #'/‬و@ ‪ ,9‬ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓ‪E‬ﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ‪ :‬‬
‫‪3‬א' א‪D‬א ‪John €ŽL/'',‬‬ ‫Œ‪5 .‬א‪,‬א‪ K$‬ن= א_‪7‬‬
‫אد‪3> #$I‬א' א‪H‬א‪S‬א‪S‬د‪+ /,9 ''J. Mearcheimer ،/‬‬
‫Œ ‪,‬ل"‪''+ =)%.B‬وא‪ ''c#‬אא  نوא ‪O#‬א‪U=HU /vg‬ن‪>F‬‬
‫و=‪''‘#bF#'$''S/‬و  א_‪7‬אد‪S#$I‬د‪qP‬و‪>b † C‬‬
‫و=‪Lx‬א‪qP‬א_‪،7‬و=‪U‬نא‪,937l‬‬ ‫אא אوس‪K‬و‪. 4‬א@\‪ƒV#‬א‪Tn‬‬
‫=א‪ 39‬نא‪ -#‬אو‪)$‬א‪ T lF‬ذא‪3-/OO‬א‪:B"b‬‬
‫" ‪  3S‬א'‪$‬א&‪ %‬א_‪7‬אد‪،I‬وא ‪  J¥‬نא‪}S‬‬
‫א'‪،#b‬و د=‪U‬ن= א‪n x‬א‪ S‬א‪,F'#$=l‬א‪ #$‬אو‪%‬دא@د‬
‫)‪#F‬ج‪I,‬א‪S‬א   "‪ B‬א'‪yb‬وא‪O‬א '‪4‬א‪3IL4‬‬
‫و=א‪K(31)R‬و"‪x O=R/rB‬ل‬ ‫‪>,F'/‬و‪،>nS=JP‬و=‪)#‬و‪! C‬‬
‫‪SS9‬א@‪r‬طא'‪/V"yb‬א‪>M#$‬م א'=‪=W‬ز‪ 4R/H‬‬
‫‪FW‬وא ‬
‫"‪B‬א‪S#$‬א‪F‬مא_‪7‬אد‪P =،I‬ن "‪30\9B‬א'‪$‬א&‪*،%‬ن‬
‫‪o>#b /‬א‪_=M#‬א'‪ # b‬א@دא'‪yb‬ن‪'\,‬א*دא‪I‬א‪y‬‬
‫د>‪qPo‬א‪i'#‬ل"‪./+ .‬א‪./O 4† W S‬א]=‪B"XS‬و‪%‬دא‪ 2CH‬‬
‫"‪O‬א‪R‬وطא*و ‪ 3 ' =/ ،‬و=‪،‬و‪B#9‬و‪P‬نو‪PF% C‬אد‪‚ =I‬‬
‫''א‪''c#‬وא‪ o>b،O='9./VF‬ن א‪7 R‬א*وو=‪K/k/'#‬א‪%‬د‬
‫א‪i'#‬لא‪D‬و‰‪,‬ول‪9‬لא‪M4‬א‪ y‬א'‪yb‬؛‪ %>{OF„b‬ن‪4$/‬‬
‫‪.4 #$‬א@دא'‪./y b‬א_‪K >nS=X"  ./.4 ##$ –M‬و ‪o‬‬
‫‪JP3O#F4/B"VJ‬א_‪./ 7‬ذ‪X'#{،f‬ل''‪P "''€ŽL/‬ذא‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫‪75‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪Ž!F‬وط‪j‬لא א‪ S‬אزن‪IS,CT /‬א*‪K4/‬و‪ x/‬‬


‫‪ V bW #$‬م@؟‪ b‬א‪U=Sy‬ن א_ل‪3‬א‪xD‬א'=‪،S‬ن ‬
‫א‪, #‬دא‪," ./7-"cFx )S‬دوא‪./b‬א ‪L;H‬אא א‪y‬‬
‫א‪n x‬א‪ .4€S‬ن‪4‬ن‪5!  ،--0‬א ‪،v#‬و‪,j,m/‬دא‬
‫‪5WF4/P.4‬א '! ‪FWI4b‬אزنא‪}S‬دونא ‬
‫وא‪  x/S /B"-C‬و=א‪#y‬א‪P " ,%‬ذא‪Ž!F‬وط‪j‬ل‪>S‬‬
‫=>‪)%\}‹I‬א@‪ IC9 H‬م@‪,Sb،‬א‪!"#$‬א@‪H‬‬
‫א‪،(32)I,-#D‬و‪4‬א‪B#9‬و‪P‬نא‪   x#$‬א‪ I,-#D‬ن‪M‬ض ‪B"IS=>#‬א م‬
‫‪ P‬لאא ‪#‬א‪Ob"+‬א@د א‪,‬و)‪،‬و‪B#9‬و‪P‬ن‪!F‬א‪b D‬א‪,S#‬‬
‫א*و=)وא'‪H$‬א‪,‬א\א‪  I,,s‬زنא‪> 4،--0—}S‬‬
‫و‪U'/‬א‪L;./OF„b،Hg‬א‪  <D‬ن ن ='‪ > 4€@J‬ن ‪5B"W‬‬
‫  ''‪ O 4€''€ŽL/‬ن ‪ B"W‬א_‪K‬و= ‪/,‬א"‪ƒa‬אא ن=>‪5‬‬
‫א_‪"Ž،SS‬א‪I,,% F3‬‬ ‫‪5‬א_‪ K‬‬
‫‪ /‬و‪#=b‬אزنא "‪Soft Balancingo‬‬ ‫‪G‬ﻣﺜﺎﻝ )‪ :(3‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺍ‪L‬ﻌﺎﻛﺲ ﺿﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎﺕ‬
‫‪L'M#‬א*‪ b‬لא‪FI,SD‬א‪E£4‬א‪O%y‬‬ ‫ﺍ‪L‬ﺘﺤﺪﺓ‪ :‬‬
‫‪3I'/I,C‬א م ‪9‬د‪+‬‬
‫‪>FK/‬א_‪7‬אد‪Ž،I‬ع''وא‪K/''c#‬‬
‫א‪ (33)KS‬‬
‫وא ©\‪,U3.‬ز"‪"„=,Mo‬د‪I‬‬
‫‪< <VíéÃÎ]çÖ]<æ‚uæ<чb¹]<gߟ<I5‬‬ ‫‪c/ 4R‬אن}‪, #/,,%‬دא*‪،7‬‬
‫‪!v#F‬אא א‪./Lx4‬א‪  -#‬‬ ‫‹ز‪##$}Ob‬אزن‪K/‬א@‪H‬א‪I,-#D‬‬
‫א*‪،4/‬و ‪bC‬א ن  א'‪ H$‬א‪M#D‬وא* '‪$‬א&‪،%‬و‪/‬‬
‫א‪<-#‬א*‪ > 9K$  x/4/‬א‪ /"B"ƒ #‬א*‪ -%‬و‬
‫א ‪3‬و‪ N$‬و=‪Kb,$‬و‪$‬و} א א@‪  #9‬א‪   6y‬‬
‫‹} \}‪qP‬א‪ ،4/ ,C-#‬אא ‪3I,M/‬א‪ -#‬א'‪)$‬‬
‫‪.4‬אא‪‰”, = b!G K‬א@‪ H‬א&‪PK)%‬ن ‪o‬د‪X\ : v#$‬و"‪,‬م‬
‫א‪K$3I,-#D‬א ‪ $'==-/‬د א'‪$‬א&‪ W %‬و@‬
‫\‪RF%‬و‪،\,‬و{‪39 H0\b / +  4R#‬א'‪$‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪76‬‬
‫و‪P،}\ >%./‬ن‪)%=)|>/‬‬ ‫א&‪،%‬و‪FG‬א@‪5#F‬א‪ŽqP,,R‬وط‬
‫א‪Q‬لא‪./+‬א‪ .4 D‬ن‪K>=N‬و‪ ,‬א‪Iv#‬א ‪ '{D‬א"‪B‬א]‪VJ‬ق‪qP‬‬
‫‪aM‬ض ‪3F9‬א ‪H‬و\‪0‬אא  ‪/‬אز‪IF‬א@‪H‬א‪!F  =،I,-#D‬‬
‫=‪U‬ن‪4‬ن"‪D‬و‪ 4_0‬ز‪/‬ن >‪I4bo‬و‪qPo>F‬א مא‪,‬و)‬
‫و‪4/‬ن‪3.4،‬א_‪PSS‬نא ‪$ B" H‬سد‪،¥‬و‪DJ)$$ Ll#/‬‬
‫ ‪  /O‬وאא ‪}“9،‬‬ ‫وא‪,D‬אسא‪"M‬אא ‪ –3W‬‬
‫ŽوطŽ‪I,,‬א@\‪،ƒV#‬و"‪B‬אא*‪$‬س ''‪ $B" J''•b‬א‪xD‬ل‪  J‬ن=‪,‬א‬
‫‪P‬ن‪3<+  0Mb /‬א'‪ $‬א مא‪,‬و)‪3‬א א_‪!F“,‬‬
‫א&‪)%‬א‪,y‬د‪iV},/‬مא‪9  <M=  -#‬א]‪‰V0‬א‹و'‪3#F#‬‬
‫و=‪f@b،‬א_‪F>–D/4‬م‬ ‫‪ qPbC]=،F+ TS/K/‬ن‬
‫א‪  -#‬א‪ S " b /:#W,‬א‪,‬ولذא‪H‬א'د‪B"I‬א ‪-‬א‪Ob F+‬‬
‫و‪c/‬دو‪49*%‬مא א ‪ /‬א~ن‪PK‬ن‪"P‬د‪I‬א@"‪Gm/  / .,#‬‬
‫‪3‬א'‪H$‬א‪,‬و ‪ ¥‬א‪K%‬אא ‬ ‫و\‪ K9 H0‬‬
‫—‪=./‬א‪H,-#‬אز‪I‬א‪y‬א‪ O%‬א‪.".\U#D‬א‪—f' #‬دא‪Œ،IS‬‬
‫אא א ‪L'M."cv‬وא‪k#M o ./,9‬א‪7‬وא‪3   $‬א א‪L;  /‬‬
‫א*‪,9‬א•א‪>F, =}‹4‬א_‪7‬אد‪ ،I‬א‪D‬د‪ $@b‬א‪ S9)MbK> /bSx‬‬
‫@وא‪vg‬م"‪ Fy ,/B‬א@‪#‬دא'‪)$‬א‪,‬و)‪.4€Vx/‬‬
‫ووאŽ ‪".‬م‪>=oS{،>%. bK2001‬א دא‪G $‬א א‪ /‬א‪¤ ,,3bSx‬ط‬
‫א‪vg‬مدوو‪،)D"o ¤P‬وא‪ D‬وƒ ن א]‪#F‬جوא@‪،V>#$‬و \‪V‬قא ‪K‬و‪ S93‬‬
‫א‪$,D‬אא ‪  v#‬א‪}S‬א‪ ./"M‬א*‪./‬א‪,‬و)‪5F,"',،‬א א‪3 /‬‬
‫;‪L‬א‪,‬ول"‪B‬א‪}#'D‬א ‪ o"c=(34))D‬ن א\‪0F#‬אعא_<א‪H‬‬
‫א‪,‬ول)א‪f†y‬א‪,S‬א‪H‬א '‪ 4‬وא@‪,2#$‬א‪H/‬א‪‰V'I0 D‬א@‪>R#$‬د‬
‫وא'‪.R$‬א_‪ 7‬وא‪U o;،>=,,>#‬دא‪; WS-#I‬אض‪30\$$‬‬
‫نא'א‪,‬و)‪}S‬א‪"M‬א*\}‪JP ,‬אאعא = )‪ J‬א@‪$‬א‪(35))n‬‬
‫‪4‬ن " ‪./‬א'א‪,‬و)‪ ./Lx4‬وא אقو ‪#'Flb‬ن‪ K‬‬
‫א‪,‬ول‪،‬وא‪,ƒ:$‬א‪ KO#$‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫‪77‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‬

‫و   دא‪$‬دوא א‪  /‬א‪ 3bSx‬א‪ #9‬ل‪,9‬و•‪cF‬א"‪،ILH‬و‹‪B".‬‬


‫‪H 4R‬א‪,‬ولوא‪H" s‬و‪ ;0‬ذ‪f‬א‪ca‬א )"‪<B‬א*‪./‬‬
‫א*"אƒوא‪D‬دœא‪o y‬א ‪HV‬א‪,‬و وא‪./,, b،IS‬א‪,‬ولא*و=وא~‪$‬‬
‫'‪W-#‬א‪)./0\/ #‬א'‪B"># $‬א_‪B" JK$  =––M‬‬
‫א&‪K%‬و‪g‬א>‪o#‬א ‪n‬א‪3I,,s‬א א‪%‬دא*‪، >SJ /3)4/‬و= '‬
‫א_‪,=  S‬א‪$‬אא‪,‬و‪،‬و‪H@ > =c #‬א‪I,-#D‬א*‪H>– ,Sb4/‬‬
‫‪qP‬א‪Hg‬وא*"אƒوא‪D‬دœ="‪ $ L;#‬א‪, =/H‬א_‪7‬אد‪4/ ;I‬‬
‫‪ #=G‬و‪"MI /‬א‪,‬و‪3% o>EFP  =،‬א‪oXS‬وא‪،D",9‬و‪0P‬א א‬
‫دא‪,  n‬ون‪،(36)>4R‬و}א ‪n‬ن ‪L‬א"‪B‬א_‪c/B"–M‬א‪ K. >D‬‬
‫;‪ L‬نאא @‪o /'M‬א*Ž‪،X‬‬ ‫ن‪5‬א ‪ : 0‬دوאא‪3«9‬‬
‫ א‪,‬ول‪>_D‬א‪ J‬و‪ "  0‬و‪/ "BS‬א"‪}iI‬א‪,D‬אسא*\}‪،‬‬
‫‪>$$‬א&‪،%‬و‪a‬אو‰‪5‬א*دوא= ‪H b‬א‹א‪,‬دא*دوא‪H‬א‪y‬‬
‫ ‪/‬א'‪$‬א&‪%‬א‪.4† SD‬א‪,‬ول‪>_/WS./‬‬
‫دو‪،‬ود‪Kb‬א‪E,‬ول‪ 3  /$$¥qP‬א‪،aRD‬و'‪N‬א<‪B"X‬א‪}S‬‬
‫<‪,‬د‪ o' KI‬א‪ " s‬א@‪#‬دא‪ M‬א‪B" #y‬א‪,‬ول‬
‫‪/,,3>#g‬دא‪,,>#‬א‪ +‬وא‪/H #Q‬א"> ‪،‬و'"‪o>bB"F,‬‬
‫‪ #‬ض‪O‬و‪XM9‬א‪/3 #‬א‪ >%‬א*‪7$‬א‪Kb,y‬א‪,‬ول‪qP‬א@\‪PƒV#‬زא‪X‬‬
‫אא‪$'b،,,>#‬א‪ Jg‬و‪ W /T‬و>א*‪،$$‬وא‪B"OF MD‬א;‪o‬‬
‫א‪'D‬وא‪3I‬א'د‪=I‬א‪,‬ول‪) J‬א‪0P./ y‬אא‪\‚M¦B"7l‬‬
‫;‪,S/‬م ‪L'M‬א ‪I  <b‬دو א ‪c‬א"‪H‬א] و ‪cc‬א'‪V‬مא‹א)‬
‫‪qP/‬دو \}="‪,/#‬א‪ SS9‬א‪+‬א‪„b،1945 $, =WxF‬ن‪5‬א א‪ /‬‬
‫‪P  x 'Fk,‬ذאא‪ #$‬‬ ‫و‪ K(37)> / ,,>#V #‬‬
‫א‪Lb37l‬א*‪./‬وא@‪S#$‬אو‪,‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺗﻤﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪BS‬אא א]‪J‬א مא*‪ " Px‬א‪S€,‬א‪./ILxXr qPJ‬א {‪ K‬‬
‫ ‪< :$‬א ‪H‬א ‪/†n‬‬ ‫‪o>M‬א'‪$‬א&‪,b،%‬ول'‪3 #‬‬
‫א‪#=>/ #‬אزنא‪}S‬و‪   ./>S3f‬א‪M4‬א‪>=Ll#y‬א‪Hg‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ 78
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Imperial Hubris: The ethical bases of ‫  א ق‬$‫وא‬H@qP‫ن‬9*‫= ‚א‬3
realist International relations Theory, ،‫و‬,‫א‬H$'‫א‬3 #/L;> 4
Constellations,Vol
Constellations 14,No4,2007,p 544. g‫א‬H #$‫ذאא‬P‫א‬Lx$ /)‫و‬
(6)
Thomas S. Mowle,worldviews on /*‫وא‬,‫א‬./‫ل‬-#‫א‬3=‫ و‬3$'‫א‬
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conflict. political psychology,vol
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3,2003,p 566  9‫ذא‬P0\/S)™,#‫א‬K%‫א‬a‫א‬

3  ‫ אא‬F،‫ج‬b,  F   (7) <_‫א‬:' ‫א‬HV0./‫א ع‬f‫>ذ‬


3 FS/ ,SF $‫ دא‬،‫و‬,‫ א‬HV ‫א‬  K''‫ن‬#l #  n 0''> "•,y‫א‬
c/WF '‫א‬KI0 D‫א‬H ‫א‬XC :‫ﺍﻟﻬﻮﺍﻣﺶ‬
،2007 ،v‫א‬a$@‫ א‬H$‫א‬, ‫ن‬#$‫د‬
K224 J221‫ص‬ (1)
William C. wohlforth,Realism and
 W7#./‫ א'دس‬M‫א‬F‫א‬ (8)
foreign policy,In: Steve Smith and others
Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of policy, theories,
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actors,
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International politics cases.
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Q‫א‬KbR4#$‫א‬$‫دא‬WE2009 J1959F (3)
William C. wohlforth, OP. Cit.
Cit
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 K106 J105‫صص‬،2010 (4)
Dustin Eils Howes, when states
{"W‫و‬,‫א‬HV ‫א‬،!‫وא‬.M#$ (9)
choose to die: Reassessing Assumptions
،‫  ل‬L / W| KI," HF KKKK,9‫وא‬ about what states want. International

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


79 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‬

 William C. Wohlforth,OP.
(17)
Cit K13‫ص‬،1998L7،89‫د‬, ‫א‬،D ‫א‬bSx‫א‬
OP. Cit.
PP 36-37. ‫ ص‬KW=$ K%/ ،‫ج‬b ,  F   (10)
(18)
Ibid. P 37. K389 J387
(19)
Ibid. PP 37-38 (11)
Hans Mouritzen,Kenneth Waltz:
(20)
 Samuel Barkin,OP.
OP. Cit.
Cit P 245. a critical rationalist between International
politics and foreign policy, In: Iver B.
 William C. Wohlforth,,OP. Cit.
(21)
Cit P 37.
Neuman and Ole Waever, The future of
 John Glenn, Realism Versus
(22)
International relations. London:
strategic culture: competition and Routledge,1997,p 73.
collaboration ? International
International studies
See also: Shiping Tang, fear in
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review
International politics: two positions.
(23)
William C. Wohlforth,OP.
OP. Cit.
Cit P 39. International studies review,10,2008,pp
review
(24)
Ibid. P 39. 358-461.
HV ‫ א‬،,S/ +‹0 "«P (25)  Martin Griffiths, International
(12)

‫ل‬0*‫ א‬3 $‫ دא‬،‫و‬,‫ א‬$'‫א‬ relations Theory for the Twenty –First
،€‫ א*د‬#4D‫ א‬WIS‫ א‬KH ‫وא‬ century. London and New York:
K254 J252‫ص‬،1991 Routledge,2007,pp 16-17.

،ƒ‫א‬l#'= H=‫ و‬،)‫ دو‬T % (26)  Samuel Barkin, Realism,


(13)

K‫و‬,‫ א‬HV ‫ א‬3 =<#D‫ א‬H ‫א‬ prediction, and foreign policy.. foreign
'$mD‫ א‬WH‫و‬L= ،)_‫ א‬," ,‫ و‬W| policy Analysis 5,2009,p 234.
،1985،K‫ز‬#‫وא‬R ‫وא‬H$‫א‬, /s‫א‬ (14)
 Ibid. PP 240-241.
K86 J85‫ص‬
$'‫ א‬،o$,'‫א‬, (15)
(27)
 Stefano Recchia,OP.
OP. Cit.
Cit P 545. <> ‫ א‬#4/ WIS‫ א‬،2‫ ط‬K%&‫א‬
 William C. Wohlforth,OP.
(28)
OP. Cit.
Cit P 41. K293‫ص‬،1998،D‫א‬
(29)
 Ibid. P 41.
(16)
 Hans Mouritzen ،OP.
OP. Cit. PP
(30)
 Patrick Thaddeus Jakson, Daniel 86-87.

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬


‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ 80
International studies Review,
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Quarterly 53,
, = / 9/ 3  ‫>> אא‬%‫ א‬y‫א‬ 2009,p 923.
 WF‫א‬I‫אد‬7_‫א‬ (31)
Dario Battistella, Théories des
Thomas C. walker,Jeffery S. Morton, internationales. 3e edition,
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Dominant? International studies Review,
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 Ibid. P 43.
7,2005,pp 341-356. (34)
Jean-Louis Martres,de la nécessité
 WqPF‫وא‬ d’une Théorie des relations Internationales,
Marier de Jerphanion, vers un l’illusion paradigmatiques, AFRI
AFRI, vol. IV,
rapprochment de la moral et de la 2003,p23.
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stratégique,N067,3,2007,p129.
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‫)؟‬CD‫א‬./pŽ‫و‬,‫א‬HV ‫א‬3 ‫אא‬
،20‫د‬, ‫ א‬K$'‫ א =  م א‬Q‫א‬
 WqPF ‫ و‬K134‫ص‬،2008\
Mohammed Nuruzz Aman, Beyond
the realist theories: ‘’ neo conservative
realism’’ and the American invasion of
IRAQ. International
International Studies
Perspectives,7,2006,pp 244-248.
Perspectives
 Jennifer Sterling –Folker,
(36)

Realism and the constructivist challenge:


rejecting, reconstructing, or rereading.

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﺸﺮ‬

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