Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Money
2
LEARNING OUTCOMES
By the end of this topic, you should be able to:
1. Construct a cash flow timeline;
2. Explain the compounding and discounting of a stream of cash flows;
3. Calculate the present and future values using the cash flow timeline
and equations;
4. Describe annuities and the difference between an ordinary
annuity and an annuity due;
5. Calculate the present and future values of an ordinary annuity
and an annuity due.
6. Explain perpetuities and the difference between level perpetuity
and growing perpetuity; and
7. Calculate the present value of level perpetuity and growing
perpetuity.
INTRODUCTION
An organisation may have excess funds which it can invest in an array of
investments. It would like to determine how much returns the investments will
generate after a period of time. In other situations, the organisation may want to
build a new plant sometime in the future and it would like to determine how
much earnings it must retain to ensure it has sufficient cash when it is ready to
construct the new plant.
In this topic, we will first learn to construct a cash flow timeline to help us to visualize
the cash flows of an investment project. We will then explain what compounding is and
learn to calculate the future value of cash flows. In the third subtopic, we will look at
discounting and learn to calculate the present value of cash flows. Next, we will look at
annuities and the difference between an ordinary annuity and annuity due, and to
calculate their present and future values. In the last subtopic, we will review perpetuities
and determine the present value of a level perpetuity and growing perpetuity.
2.1 TIMELINE
A timeline is a time value analysis tool which will help us to visualise the cash
flows of an investment project. Timelines are useful to analyse complex financial
problems.
Let us assume we deposit RM100 in a bank account at an interest rate of five per
cent for three years. Figure 2.1 represents the timing of the cash flows of our
deposit.
In Figure 2.1, PV (present value) represents the RM100 we deposited in the bank,
and FV (future value) is the amount which will be in our account in three years.
The intervals between 0 and 1, 1 and 2, and 2 and 3 are periods which can be
years, quarters or months. Time 0 represents today and it is the beginning of
Period 1, while Time 1 is one period from today, and represents the end of Period
1 and the beginning of Period 2, and so on.
Cash flows are shown below the tick marks representing the period while the
interest rate is shown above the timeline. The cash flows which we want to find
out are represented with a question mark.
In our illustration, we have a single cash outflow of RM100, an interest rate of five
per cent, which is invested at Time 0, and we want to find the Time-3 value. In our
example, the interest is held constant at five per cent. However in real life, interest
rates may vary from period to period and it will be shown in the diagram for the
respective periods accordingly. Similarly in our example, while there are only two
cash flows in Times 0 and 3, and no cash flows in Times 1 and 2, there could be
multiple cash flows in real life.
SELF-CHECK 2.1
The following definitions are generally used in the time value of money
computations.
FVN = Future value of an investment after N periods. Our cash flow at the end
of Year 3 will be denoted as FV3.
CF1 = Cash flow. In our investment above, our initial investment will be negative
and the cash flows in Years 1, 2 and 3 will be positive. If you borrow money from
the bank, the first cash flow, which is the money the bank loans to you will be
positive, while your repayment of the loan will be negative.
To calculate the interest earned in Year 1, we multiply the initial investment with
the interest rate is five per cent (1 + I) = (1.05). The value of the investment at
end of Year 1 is:
FV1 = PV + INT
= PV + PV (I)
= PV (1 + I)N
= RM100 (1 + 0.05)
= RM100 (1.05) = RM105
We begin Year 2 with an amount of RM105. In Year 2, this amount will further
earn an interest equal to RM105 (0.05) = RM5.25. At the end of Year 2, the value
of our investment will be RM110.25. Notice that the interest earned in Year 2 is
more than the interest earned in Year 1. We call this „compounding‰ and the
interest earned on interest is referred to as „compound interest‰.
In Year 3, we would earn RM110.25 (0.05) = RM5.51 interest. The value of our
investment at the end of Year 3 would be:
FV2 = FV1 (1 + I)
= PV (1 + I) (1 + I)
= PV (1 + I)2
= RM100 (1.05)2 = RM110.25
To calculate the value of the investment at the end of Year 3, apply the formula
above:
Referring to our example earlier, if we invest RM100 for three years and earn a
simple interest of five per cent per annum, our balance at the end of Year 3 would
be:
FV = PV + PV (I) (N)
= RM100 + RM100 (5%) (3)
= RM100 + RM15 = RM115
You would notice that the total simple interest above is less than the compound
interest we calculated earlier. You should be aware of how the interest is paid for
an investment, whether it is simple interest or compound interest.
SELF-CHECK 2.2
You deposit RM2,000 into a fixed deposit account which will pay an
interest of four per cent, compounded annually. How much will you
have in the account after 3 years? (Answer: RM2,249.73)
2.2.4 Compounding Process in a Graphical Form
The importance of the interest rate in compounding is shown in Figure 2.2. As
the interest rates rise, so does the future value. The figure shows the
compounding effect on our RM100 investment at different interest rates.
Figure 2.2: Growth of RM100 at various interest rates and time periods
To find the FV, moving from the left to the right, we multiplied the initial amount
and each subsequent amount by (1 + I). To find the PV, we work from right to
left, dividing the future value and each subsequent amount by (1 + I). For
example, we can find the PV in Year 2 and Year 1 as follows,
PV2
FV3
(1
I)
RM115.76
PV2 RM110.25
(1 0.05)
RM110.25
PV1 (1 0.05) RM105.00
However, as we noted earlier, the step-by-step method is not efficient when we
are dealing with periods extending to several years. An alternative to the step-by-
step method is the formula method.
Recall Equation 2.1, which we used to find the FV. We now solve the same
equation to find PV.
FV
Discounting to find PV: PV 2.2
= (1 I)N
You can also calculate the present values by using the financial calculator or
SELF-CHECK 2.3
How much will it be worth if the bond matures in five years and the
risk- free interest is six per cent? (Answer: RM1,681.13)
Figure 2.3: Present value of RM100 at various interest rates and time perio
Finding the Interest Rate and Number of Years
We have familiarised ourselves with Equations 2.1 and 2.2, and used them to find
PV and FV. There are four variables in the equations and if we know any three of
them, we can find the fourth.
Let us say we know the PV, FV and N, and we want to find I. For example, we
want to invest RM100 now and expect to generate returns of RM150 after 10
years (PV = RM100, FV = RM150, and N = 10 years), and we want to find the
rate of return. By using Equation 2.1 and reversing it:
PV(1 I)N FV
(1 I)10 RM150 /
1 I 1.5(1/10)
1 I 1.0414
I 1.0414 1
I 0.0414 4.14%
2.3
You can also calculate the interest rate (I) and number of years (N), by using the
financial calculator or spreadsheets.
2.4 ANNUITIES
In the previous subtopics, we looked at cash flows involving single payments.
However, often we deal with investments with a series of inflows such as
coupons from a bond, as well as a series of payments (outflows) such as home
mortgages and auto loans. When payments of equal amounts are made at fixed
intervals, we call it an annuity. For example, if we obtain a five-year auto loan,
we would pay a fixed sum every month, say RM1,000, for the next five years to
the bank. We would call it a five-year annuity. Remember that two things must
hold for an annuity: it must have constant payments and a fixed number of
periods.
If the payments are made at the end of the period, then we will call it ordinary or
deferred annuity. Since payment of home mortgages and auto loans are generally
settled at the end of the periods, they are ordinary annuities.
On the hand, if payments are made at the beginning of the period, then it is called
annuity due. Generally, since rental lease payments and insurance premiums are
made at the beginning of the period, they are due annuity.
In the financial market, ordinary annuities are more common, and therefore
unless it is clearly stated, when we come across an „annuity‰, we would assume
payments are made at the end of the period.
Let us assume that we make an annual payment of RM100 for a three-year period
at five per cent. The timelines for the ordinary annuity and annuity due will look
as follows:
Take note that with annuity due, each payment is shifted to the left by one year.
Since we are making annual payments (cash outflow), they are shown with minus
signs.
ACTIVITY 2.1
FVAN PMT (1 I)N1 PMT (1 I)N2 PMT (1 I)N3 PMT (1 I)0
You can also solve the annuity problems with a financial calculator or spread
sheets.
SELF-CHECK 2.4
1. Using the timeline method, find out the present value of the
annuities due in subtopic 2.4.2. Did you get the same answer?
2. You plan to purchase a new car five years from now. You deposit
RM2,500 per year into a fixed deposit account which pays four
per cent interest, and you make the first deposit at the end of this
year. How much will you have in the deposit account after five
years? (Answer: RM13,540.81)
To find the PV of the annuity, we discount each cash payment back to Time 0.
We then total up the discounted values. The above is simple and straightforward,
but imagine how tedious and time-consuming it would be if the annuity is for
many years.
We can apply the following formula to find the PVA. Notice that the equation
mirrors the step-by-step method we used earlier.
PVAN MT
PMT (1 PMT 2.6
(1 I)2 (1 I)N
I)1
To find the annuity due, we first find the value of the annuity due, and then
multiply the result of Equation 2.6 with (1 + I):
PVAdue PVAordinary (1 1)
SELF-CHECK 2.5
1. You have an ordinary annuity with 10 payments of RM100 and
the applicable interest rate is 4%. What would the PVA be,
assuming it was an ordinary annuity? (Answer: RM811.09)
2. What would the PVA be if you were dealing with an annuity due?
(Answer: RM843.53)
2.5 PERPETUITIES
We looked at an investment with single payment at a fixed point in time, and the
relationship between the present value and future value. However, there are
investments which will promise to provide returns forever. An investment which
promises to pay returns perpetually or has no maturity is called a perpetuity.
ACTIVITY 2.2
What would the value of the bond be if the interest rate decreases to 2.5 per cent?
The value of the bond will rise to RM4,000:
RM100
PV of a bond RM4,000
0.075
Present Value of a Growing Perpetuity
If you are holding a growing perpetuity, then you will receive periodic cash flow
which grows at a constant rate each period. For example, let us say you hold a
growing perpetuity which makes its first payment of RM100 and its payments are
assumed to grow at five per cent per year. Using the compound effect, you know the
payment you receive in Year 2 will be RM100 (1.01) = RM105, and the payment in
Year 3 will be RM100 (1.05) (1.05) = RM110.25, and so on.
The formula to calculate the present value of a growing perpetuity is as follows:
PMTperiod 1
PV of a growing perpetuity
Ig