MILM 6206 Leading and managing in the workplace

Seminar 2 and part of Seminar 3

Problem-solving and decision-

making

BY J A N E K W O K
M A S T E R O F S C I E N C E – L I B R A R Y & I N F O R M AT I O N M A N A G E M E N T
FA C U LT Y O F E D U C AT I O N
SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER 2023

1
Contents
❖Types of decisions
❖Rational decision-making process
❖Making decisions in diverse cultures
❖Techniques for simulating creativity in group decision
making

2
Let us discuss
A few years ago, the LED TV came to the market.
Family would like to replace the “Big Box”…. But not knowing much
about LED (digital TV)……. What will be the customer ( me) do?

3
Decision-making of
managers/leaders
✓I consider that decision-making is one of the important roles of mangers/
leaders.
✓Making decision is based on the ability to conceptualize situations and
select alternatives to solve problems and take advantage of opportunities.
(Suggest tools: Visual Thinking; Creative Thinking, and Design Thinking)
✓It is about how the managers/ leaders reason and make decisions.
✓It involves critical thinking, using a rational process, analyzing
alternatives, , time management, quantitative reasoning, ability to be
creative, perceiving trends, anticipating changes , attempting to maximize
positive outcomes for the organization.
✓Decisions made today will affect future performance and career of the
managers/ leaders.

4
Define decision-making
❑Decision making is defined as the process of choosing a
particular action that deals with a problem or opportunity.
(Textbook page 371)
❑It should be a means to achieve some result or to solve
some problems. The outcome of a process that is influenced
by many forces.
❑Organizational mechanisms through which an attempt is
made to achieve a desired state.

5
 Types of Problems

Happy Problems for decision

Sad Problems for decision

https://www.dreamstime.com/vector-emoji-yellow-sad-face-eyes-mouth-white-background-
https://kknews.cc/design/6n6xqep.html
funny-cartoon-icon-d-illustration-chat-message-image113978857

6
Types of decisions – Herbert
Simon
➢ Programmed decisions
➢repetitive and routine
➢have a definite procedure
➢ Non-programmed decisions
➢Novel and unstructured
➢No established procedure for handling problem

p. 373

7
Programed vs non-
programmed decisions

http://www.msubillings.edu/BusinessFac
ulty/larsen/MGMT321/Ch%207%20OH.p
df

8
Post-decision effect – a good case
analysis for discussion
Decision was made by the Pilot.
No passenger was missing but just some
of them had minor injury.
Hero or suspected wrong-doing?
What were the reactions from:
◦ the society
◦ professional
◦ Government monitoring bodies?

Only in USA -?

9
 The Rational Decision-Making Process

Establishing
Problem
specific goals & Establishing
identification and
objectives and priorities
Revise definition Revise
measuring results

Development of Evaluation of
Consideration
alternative alternative
of causes Revise Revise
solutions solutions

Solution selection Implementation Follow-up

Revise Revise

10
Textbook Page 375
Problem Solving

© McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 11

 Behavioral Influence on
Decision Making
Values

Escalation pf Decision Propensity

commitment Making for risk

Potential for
dissonance

Textbook Page 380 12

 Behavioral Influence on Decision
Making
• Values
– In the context of decision making, values can
be thought of as the guidelines a person uses
when confronted with a situation in which a
choice must be made.
• Propensity for Risk
– An individual’s propensity for taking risks
influences the decision making process.

13
 Behavioral Influence on Decision
Making
• Potential for Dissonance
– Decision makers often experience cognitive
dissonance, which is a lack of harmony among
the decision maker’s various cognitions after a
decision has been made.
• Escalation of Commitment
– Refers to an increasing commitment to a
previous decision when a “rational” decision
maker would withdraw.(eg Gamblers)
14
 Problem-solving

Herbert A Simon, Nobel Prize-winning theorist, conceptualized 3 phases in the decision

Making process. They are activities of intelligence, design and choice. While Mintzberg’s
Empirical analysis on decision process closely related to Simon’s findings.

15
Problem identification and
definition
Problem statement requires relevant information to be effective.

oStates clearly current state, target state and business impacts.

oIt must be clear, concise, complete and easy to understand.
➢Simple Example:
➢Our patronage as at the end of this year was XXXXXX which
is 5% below budget resulting in a 7% drop in fare revenue.

Current Impacts
Desired

16
Evaluation of alternative
solutions
❖Making a decision is selecting the best alternative that will produce
the most favorable outcomes and the least unfavorable outcomes.
How to develop alternatives:-
1. Analysis of data…data mining…what does data tells you?
2. Questions each aspect of situation
3. Using all idea sources available
4. Application of creativity to the situation (think out of the box)
5. Application of some appropriate actions for generate alterative
solutions.
6. Brainstorming.

17
 3 possible factors or conditions for
evaluation of alternative
http://newproductvisions.com/blog/wp
-content/uploads/2014/12/Risk.jpg

http://jenebaspeaks.com/2015/01/2015-
the-fight-over-internet-regulatory-
uncertainty-has-begun/comment-page-1/

http://redeeminggod.com/theological-
certainty/

18
 Administrative Model in
decision making
❖Herbert A Simon developed the model to describe how
decisions are often made rather than to prescribe how they
should be made.
❖Decision makers have incomplete and imperfect information,
are constrained by “bounded rationality” and tend to satisfice
when making decisions.
❖Bounded rationality indicates that decision markers are limited
by their values and unconscious reflexes, skills and habits.
❖Satisficing is the tendency to search for alternatives only until it
is found that it meets some minimum standard of sufficiency.

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Intuitive Decision making
model
❑Decision making is based on a “gut” feeling or intuition. Feeling is
based on years of experience and practice in similar situations.
❑An unconscious process of decision maker’s personality.
❑Intuitive decision making occurs frequently because:-
1. High level of uncertainty
2. No history or past experience
3. Time pressure
4. Excessive number of alternatives that can be difficult to thoroughly
analyze.

20
Making decisions in devise
cultures
Differences in cultural lifestyle can be explained by:
1. individualism
2. power distance
3. uncertainty avoidance
4. Masculinity
❑Asian countries tend to have high uncertainty
avoidance and low masculinity.
❑Western countries tend to have low uncertainty
avoidance and high masculinity.

21
 Individual vs Group making
decision

Textbook Page 387 22

23
 Value of Individual vs. Group
Decision Making
Important considerations for judging the overall
value of group decision vs. individual decision
making include:

Time Cost

Nature of the Satisfaction and

Problem Commitment

Personal Growth

10-24
Group Decision
Making
Discussion in
class
Why do some
employees
learn to make
decision better
than others?

25
 Decision-Making Styles
Individuals’ predispositions can affect
decision process at two critical stages
Gathering Evaluating
Carl Jung
(Perceiving) (Judging) of
of Information Alternatives

Sensing style Thinking style

Intuition style Feeling style
Gathering Information
Sensing
A decision style focused on
gathering concrete information
directly through the senses,
with an emphasis on practical
and realistic ideas.
Intuition
A decision style focused on
developing abstractions and
figurative examples for use in
decision making, with an
emphasis on imagination and
possibilities.
 Define the
Problem

Identify Criteria
Decision-Making Styles

Perceptual
Sensing Intuition

Influences
Gather and
Evaluate Using the five Using abstractions
Feedback

Information senses to identify and describing the

Judgmental factual details “big picture”

List and Evaluate

Influences

Objective Subjective values

Alternatives analysis, rational with emotional and
procedures personal factors
Select Best
Alternative Thinking Feeling

Implement
and Follow Up
What are the Carl Jung's four functions related to gathering and evaluating information for
problem solving and decision making. Which problem-solving style would be appropriate for
an individual in the accounting profession? Why?

The four conscious functions that Jung has identified are Thinking, Intuition, Sensation, and
Feeling. When pitting Thinking against Feeling, it is clear that an accountant has to be
comfortable processing a large amount of information at any given time and synthesizing it.
Hence, an ideal accountant would be more of a thinker and less of a "feeler." It is less important
whether the accountant is introverted or extroverted, as this does not contribute to their ability
to do their job well. Sensation wins against Intuition, as drawing the solution from immediate
facts is more important (for an accountant) than considering the inherent possibilities and inner
meanings of said facts.

MBTI全称Myers-Briggs Type Indicator，是一种迫选型、自我报告式的性格评估工具，用以

衡量和描述人们在获取信息、作出决策、对待生活等方面的心理活动规律和性格类型。
它以瑞士心理学家Carl Jung的性格理论为基础，由美国的Katherine C Briggs和Isabel Briggs
Myers母女共同研制开发。(https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/68912379)

Suggest you find out more on this theory by Carl Jung

https://www.enotes.com/homework-help/what-carl-jungs-four-functions-related-gathering-
329962

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 Brainstorming
❖It is defined as the generation of ideas in a group through noncritical
discussion.
❖Brainstorming is one of the most important techniques to generate
and develop new ideas
❖managers meet face-to-face to generate and debate many
alternatives.
❖Group members are not allowed to evaluate alternatives until all
alternatives are listed.
❖Be creative and radical in stating alternatives.
❖When all are listed, then the pros and cons of each are discussed and a
short list created.

Textbook Page 390 30

 From:
The ‘Do’s’ and ‘Don’ts’ of
Effective Brainstorming
 Brainstorming Methods

Lateral Thinking Vertical Thinking

RANDOM OSBORN’S
STIMULATION CHECKLIST
UNRELATED
RELATED IDEAS
IDEAS

OTHER PEOPLE’S
FUTURING
VIEWS

The
Brainstorming
Process
Free Association
(Unstructured Idea Generation)
Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 9/1/2023 32
 Osborn’s Checklist for Adding New Ideas

Vertical Thinking –
(S.C.A.M.P.E.R)
• Substitute
• Combine
• Adapt
• Modify (Magnify, Minify)
• Put to other uses
• Eliminate
• Rearrange

Mag nify Com bine

Minify

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 9/1/2023 33

34
 Nominal Group Technique
(NGT)
➢Method of decision making that occurs in a highly
structured meeting and the group meeting is based on ideas
from team members assessment of votes after shared and
discussed on ideas.
➢The advantages of NGT are:
➢Eliminating biases and peer-pressure
➢Encouraging team members participation
➢Making all ideas are heard and weighted equally.

Textbook Page 391 35

http://www.innovation-
creativity.com/creativity-techniques.html

36
 Delphi Techniques
❑The Delphi method is a structured communication technique, originally
developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a
panel of experts.
❑Delphi allows distant managers to participate without face-to-face
meetings.
❑Problem is distributed in written form to managers who then generate
written alternatives.
❑Responses are received and summarized by top managers.
❑These results are sent back to participants for feedback, and ranking.
❑The process continues until consensus is reached.

The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator
provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well
as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise
their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel.

Textbook Page 391 37

Groupthink and Common
information bias
Groupthink – A situation in which group members maintain or seek
consensus at the expense of identifying and debating honest
disagreements. This type of group phenomenon can occur under a
number of different conditions, including the following: Group members
like one another and therefore do not want to criticize each other’s
ideas; Group members have high regard for the group’s collective
wisdom and therefore yield to early ideas or the ideas of a leader; and
Group members derive satisfaction from membership in a group that
has a positive self-image and therefore try to prevent the group from
having any serious divisions.
Common information bias – Group members overemphasize
information held by a majority, failing to be mindful of information held
by one or a few group members. Reduces availability of unique
information ideas. Perspectives possessed by individual group members

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Dialectical inquiry and
Devil’s advocacy
Dialectical inquiry – Debate between very different
sets of recommendations and assumptions to
encourage full discussion. Overcomes tendency of
group to avoid conflict when evaluating
alternatives.

39
Devil’s Advocacy
❑Devil’s advocacy – Individual or subgroup argues against the
recommended actions and assumptions put forth by other members of
the group. Also overcomes tendency of group to avoid conflict when
evaluating alternatives
❑Critical analysis of a preferred alternative to ascertain its strengths and
weaknesses before it is implemented
❑One member of the group who acts as the devil’s advocate by
critiquing the way the group identified alternatives and pointing out
problems with the alternative selection.

40
Devil’s Advocacy vs Dialectical
Inquiry

41
 Organizational
Learning & Creativity
Organizational Learning: Managers seek to improve
member’s ability to understand the organization and
environment so as to raise effectiveness.
The learning organization: managers try to improve the
people’s ability to behave creatively to maximize
organizational learning

Creativity: is the ability of the decision maker to

discover novel ideas leading to a feasible course of
action.
A creative management staff and employees are the
key to the learning organization.

42
 Individual Creativity
Organizations can build an environment
supportive of creativity.
Many of these issues are the same as for the
learning organization.
Managers must provide employees with the
ability to take risks.
If people take risks, they will occasionally fail.
Thus, to build creativity, periodic failures must
be rewarded.
This idea is hard to accept for some managers.

43
 Vroom-Yetton Method

Victor Vroom Philip Yetton

Requires managers to diagnose the problem situation and
then determine the extent to which associates will be
involved in the decision-making process. The involvement
depends on the probable effect participation will have on:
• the expected quality of the decision
• the acceptance or commitment needed from associates to
implement the solution
• the amount of time available (and needed) to make the
decision.

10-44
 Who Should Decide?
Level of Associate Involvement in Decision

Low High

AI AII CI CII GII

AI Manager solves problem or makes decision alone

AII Manager requests information but not alternatives
CI Manager explains problem individually but makes
decision alone
CII Manager explains problem to group, gets suggestions,
makes decision alone
GII Manager explains problem to group, facilitates problem
solving, implements decision supported by the group

10-45
 Autocratic – you make the decision and inform others of it.
Style: There are two separate processes for decision making in an
autocratic style:
Autocratic 1(A1) – you use the information you already have and
make the decision

Processes: Autocratic 2 (A2) – you ask team members for specific

information and once you have it, you make the decision. Here
you don't necessarily tell them what the information is needed
for.

Consultative – you gather information from the team and other and
Style:
then make the decision.

Consultative 1 (C1) – you inform team members of what you're doing

and may individually ask opinions, however, the group is not brought
together for discussion. You make the decision.
Processes:
Consultative 2 (C2) – you are responsible for making the decision,
however, you get together as a group to discuss the situation, hear
other perspectives, and solicit suggestions.
10-46
 Collaborative – you and your team work together to reach a
Style:
consensus.
Group (G2) – The team makes a decision together. Your role is
Process: mostly facilitative and you help the team come to a final decision
that everyone agrees on.

This is a useful model, but it's quite complex and long-

winded. Use it in new situations, or in ones which have
unusual characteristics: Using it, you'll quickly get a feel
for the right approach to use in more usual
circumstances. (from Mindtools.com)
10-47
 Vroom-Yetton Method
Questions asked to determine level of associate
involvement in decision making
A. Is there a quality requirement such that one solution is likely to
be more rational than another solution, or will any number of
solutions work reasonably well?
B. Do I have sufficient information to make a high-quality decision?
C. Is the problem structured (do I know the question to ask and
where to look for relevant information)?
D. Is acceptance of the decision by associates critical to effective
implementation?
E. If I were to make the decision by myself, is it reasonably certain
that it would be accepted by my associates?
F. Do the associates share the organizational goals to be attained in
solving this problem?
G. Is conflict among associates likely in preferred solutions?

10-48
 Vroom-Yado Leadership
Decision Model
• This model was originally described by Victor
Vroom and Philip Yetton in their 1973 book titled
Leadership and Decision Making. Later in 1988,
Vroom and Arthur Jago, replaced the decision
tree system of the original model with an expert
system based on mathematics. Hence you will
see the model called Vroom-Yetton, Vroom-
Jago, and Vroom-Yetton-Jago. The model here
is based on the Vroom-Jago version of the
model.

10-49
Decision Tree

10-50
 Vroom-Yetton Method
A B C D E F G

No 1-AI Yes 2-AI

Yes No
3-GII
No 4-AI
No 7-CII
6-GII
Problem

Yes 5-AI Yes

Yes
No Yes
No
Yes No No
Yes
Yes
Yes Yes 9-AII 8-CI
No
No 10-AII
No Yes 11-CII
Yes 12_GII
Yes
No
No No
13-CII
14-CII
Decision points
Recommended strategies

Decision tree 10-51

 Other current skills or
methods
Design Thinking

Big Data
TRIZ
(Theory of
Inventive
Problem
Solving)
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.kidsin
ventor_eng
VL Show cards
52
 A3 and PDCA as problem
solving and Actions
How A3 Presentations Help Us Build Teamwork by Nicolas Chartier ( Oct 30, 2019)
https://www.lean.org/LeanPost/Posting.cfm?LeanPostId=1092

The A3 sums up how we have solved a problem, how we have changed a

process or how we plan to launch a new product. An A3 presentation
follows Deming’s PDCA (Plan Do Check Act) logical thinking.
The A3s are sent to all the excecutive members the Friday before the
meeting, so that everyone can read it beforehand and prepare their
questions.
What is an A3 presentation?
It’s a standardized format on a A3 paper on which you will always find the
same, standard points:
Clarify the problem/ Break Down the Problem/ Target Setting/ Root Cause
Analysis/ Develop Countermeasure/ See Countermeasures Through/
Monitor Results and Processes/ Standardize Successful Processes

53
 Leadership in Data Science
and data analysis
There are multiple ways to make decisions, but one way proven to be
very useful is the analytical approach - a methodology for making the
problem explicit and rationalizing the different potential solutions. In
short: analysis-based support of decision making, design and
implementation of solutions. The Module consists of 5 steps in analysis.

54
Takeaways – my advice
to you
When things go wrong, it's easy to say, "We should have
known that would happen."
And, with a little foresight, perhaps, problems could have
been avoided if only someone had asked "What Could Go
Wrong?“
Be proactive: -

Tool: such as Failure Mode and Effect Analysis

55
Please do your homework and they
are good for your assignments

56
Let us have a break and come back for an
Exercise
Problem-solving
57
Class Exercise – Problem Soling
by using Root-cause diagram and
Toyota’s 5 Whys.
Group Exercise: Each group consists of 3 to 5 members.
Time: 20 min.
After exercise, present answers to the other groups.

Problem:
Aircraft turn around time is critical for on-time airline
operations. However, there are evidences that delay was due
to the prolonged turn around time. By using Fish Bone
diagram and 5 Whys, group members are required to find out
2 contributing factors (out of 5) as route causes.

58
Aircraft Turnaround in Airport
⚫ During 2007, 19% of all European flights were more than 15
min late. One contributor to this delay is the insufficient
ground operation performance inducing excessive process
durations. Whenever these processes are part of the critical
Turnaround (TA) path, such as de-boarding, fueling,
cleaning, catering and boarding, the effects immediately
propagate an accumulating delay through the ATM network.
⚫ Recent studies have investigated into the effects of
technical aircraft deficiencies onto TA reliability, and could
show that significant potential is given for improvement.
Field analyses at German airlines showed that pre-set
quality standards for punctuality can actually not be met.

Michael Schultz (2009)

Chair of Air Transport Technologies and Logistics
Technische Universität Dresden
Dresden, Germany
The airport operations – the
turnaround of an aircraft
Ground operations for aircraft
turnaround
⚫ 1.) Placing of chocks (rubber blocks that prevent
aircraft from moving) in front of the aircraft's wheels
after it comes to full stop
⚫ 2.) Unloading of passengers and baggage
⚫ 3.) Post-flight administration
⚫ 4.) Pre-flight administration
⚫ 5.) Catering replenishment
⚫ 6.) Aircraft cleaning
⚫ 7). Fueling
⚫ 8.) Security checks
⚫ 9.) Loading of passengers and baggage, and
⚫ 10.) Removal of chocks for departure.
http://www.thinkreliability.com/Root-Cause-
Analysis-CM-Basics.aspx

62
5 whys exercise (MS PPT copy
available in Moodle)
(Factor) Possible Cause Evidence/Supports
Why 1.

Why 2

Why 3

Why 4

Why 5

63
 5 whys exercise Example for demonstration
Suspect the human factor is the root problem.
(Factor) Possible Cause Evidence/Supports
Why 1. Why human factor? Passengers Pax late to board aircraft
delay flight departure
Why 2 why pax late to board? Failed to follow
instructions
Why 3 why pax failed following Instructions not clear or
instructions? not in their home
countries languages
Why 4 why PA could not guide them? Missed the PA

Why 5 why signage could not work ? Not enough signage at

transit areas.

64
Route-cause template with 5
contributing factors
Men Machine Materials

Whys

Delay

Methods Environmental

65
Textbook and reference materials
1. Ivancevich, J., Konopaske, R., and Matterson, M., (2018)
Organizational behavior and management, 11th ed. New York:
McGraw-Hill Irwin. (Text book)

Reference

2. Hitt. M., Miller, C C., Colella A., (2011) Organizational Behavior, John
Wiley & sons (Asia) Pte Ltd.
3. Vroom v H & Yetton P W (1973)m Leadership and Decision making,
Pittsburg, PA: University of Pittsburgeh Press.

66
END

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