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A qualitative assessment methodology for road safety policy strategies

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 Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 (2004) 281–293

A qualitative assessment methodology for road safety policy strategies

S.C. Wong a,∗ , B.S.Y. Leung a , Becky P.Y. Loo b , W.T. Hung c , Hong K. Lo d
a Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, PR China
b Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, PR China
c Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, PR China
d Department of Civil Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong, PR China
Received 3 July 2002; received in revised form 17 November 2002; accepted 16 December 2002

Abstract
This paper proposes a qualitative assessment methodology that is comprised of a cluster analysis and an autoregression analysis that
assess the effects of various road safety strategies implemented in Hong Kong over the last 10 years. The cluster analysis is first used
to group over a hundred road safety projects and programs into a smaller set of meaningful road safety policy strategy clusters. These
strategies, together with the trend factor, seasonal pattern, car crashworthiness and meteorological data are then used in the autoregression
analysis to relate to the fatality and casualty rates of drivers, passengers, motorcyclists, and pedestrians. This method allows the evaluation
of the overall effects of the road safety strategies, and the effects and relative significance of each individual strategy. The evaluation method
is described, and the main findings of the study are discussed.
© 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Road safety strategy; Qualitative assessment; Cluster analysis; Time series analysis; Autoregression analysis

1. Introduction These evaluation exercises had two basic characteristics.

The Hong Kong Government organizes numerous road
safety projects and programs every year, which cover the
whole territory and cost millions of dollars. These programs
range from the dissemination of road safety messages, road
safety towns, campaigns for the wearing of seat belts and
against drink driving, the improvement of road signs, to the
maintenance of good road surfaces. The road safety strate-
gies that they feature all aim to improve three major factors:
the behavior of road users including drivers and pedestrians,
vehicles, and the road environment.
As much effort has been spent on improving road safety
in the implementation of these strategies (Allsop, 2002), it is
of great importance that policy-makers know whether they
have actually reduced traffic accidents. Road safety authori-
ties elsewhere have evaluated the effectiveness of such strate-
gies. For example, Dee (1998) reported the effects of seat
belt laws and their enforcement status in the US, Tofflemire
and Whitehead (1997) evaluated the influence of daytime
light running on traffic safety in Canada, and Chen et al.
(2000) conducted an evaluation of the photo-radar program
in British Columbia.
∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +86-852-2859-2668;
fax: +86-852-2559-5337.
E-mail address: hhecwsc@hkucc.hku.hk (S.C. Wong).
Firstly, most studied the effectiveness of individual road
safety strategies, for example, a photo-radar program (Chen
et al., 2000), blood alcohol limits (Mann et al., 2001), the
daytime running of lights (Tofflemire and Whitehead, 1997),
seat belt laws (Dee, 1998), a commercial driver’s license
program (Hagge and Romanowicz, 1996), media advertising
and police enforcement (Tarawneh et al., 1999), photo-radar
and speed display boards (Bloch, 1998), the police enforce-
ment of speed limits (Sisiopiku and Patel, 1999), automated
speed limit enforcement (Elvik, 1997), automated speed
monitoring cameras (Ali et al., 1997), a roadside inspec-
tion selection system (Lantz et al., 1997), a motorcyclist
safety training program (Billheimer, 1998) and speed lim-
its (Agent et al., 1998; Binkowski et al., 1998). When some
looked at the combined effects of integrated safety programs
(Lindqvist et al., 2001; Ytterstad and Wasmuth, 1995), they
could not differentiate the relative effects of individual com-
ponent strategies. Secondly, all of the above evaluations at-
tempted to quantify the effects of these road safety strategies.
The techniques that were commonly employed in con-
ducting these evaluations were: (a) simple pre–post compar-
isons, (b) pre–post comparisons with similar control areas,
(c) time series analyses, (d) multiple time series analyses
with comparison areas, and (e) weighted least-squares re-
gressions.

0001-4575/$ – see front matter © 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/S0001-4575(03)00006-X
282 S.C. Wong et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 (2004) 281–293
The current study proposes a qualitative assessment
methodology that is comprised of a cluster analysis and an
autoregression analysis that assess the effects of various
road safety strategies that have been implemented in Hong
Kong over the last 10 years. This method allows the eval-
uation of the overall effects of the road safety strategies
and the effects and relative significance of each individual
strategy. The evaluation method is described, and the main
findings of the study are discussed.
2. Study approach
The data for this study were mainly obtained from the
publications of various departments of the Government of
the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR),
and include annual observations from 1990 to 1999. The
quarterly casualty data were collected from the “Traffic
Accident Report”, which was published by the Hong Kong
Police Force (1990–1998), and for the year 1999 were ob-
tained from the Traffic Branch Headquarters of the Hong
Kong Police Force. The motor vehicle licensing data, mete-
orological data, and annual population data were extracted
from the “Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics”, which
was published by the Census and Statistics Department
(1990–1999). Car crashworthiness test data were obtained
from the New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) of the US
(National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2001).
Due to the limited time series available, the average star rat-
ings for frontal collision tests (including both driver and pas-
senger seats) for one of the most popular car models in Hong
Kong, Toyota Corolla, are included to reflect the impact of
technological advancement in vehicle manufacturing on road
safety.
Data regarding the road safety projects and programs
were compiled from the “Road Safety Strategy Papers” and
the “Annual Reports” that were issued by the Road Safety
Council (1990–1999). In the last 10 years, the government
implemented over a hundred road safety projects and pro-
grams (Loo et al., 2002). However, it was difficult to ex-
tract any systematic schedules and developments from the
individual projects and programs. Nevertheless, there might
have been certain policy strategies, explicit or implicit, be-
hind the scenes. Hence, this study is divided into two stages.
The first stage extracts distinct clusters of policy strategies
that are characterized by the nature of road safety measures
as well as their implementation schedules. Cluster analysis
is employed for this purpose, and the results portray the sys-
tematic policy strategies that the government adopted and
developed, explicitly or implicitly, to improve road safety in
Hong Kong in the last decade.
The second stage relates these policy strategies to the
accident figures by means of an autoregression analysis. The
resultant models help to identify a set of significant policy
strategies that were qualitatively effective in improving road
safety in Hong Kong.
3. Cluster analysis
Cluster analysis is used to categorize the road safety
projects and programs into groups according to their simi-
larities. This analysis will help to produce distinct sets of
independent variables for the autoregression model analysis
in the second stage of study (to be discussed in Section 4).
A group of highly correlated independent variables in an
autoregression model will affect the reliability of the model
equation, and therefore distort the overall model validity.
When this condition of multicollinearity exists, the regres-
sion coefficients may be of the incorrect signs and magni-
tudes, and be unreliable (Bowerman and O’Connell, 1993,
1997; Hair et al., 1995). In this study, a cluster analysis
is first used to group the highly correlated variables into
physically descriptive road safety policy strategies. This
grouping allows us to better conceptualize the numerous
road safety measures as distinct policy clusters before ana-
lyzing their effectiveness in improving road safety in Hong
Kong over the last decade.
3.1. Cluster analysis input
The inputs for the cluster analysis are dummy variables
that represent the implementation schedules of the vari-
ous road safety projects and programs. The study period
is divided into equal intervals, each of 3 months (or a
quarter): January–March, April–June, July–September, and
October–December, from the first quarter of 1990 to the
fourth quarter of 1999. Hence, there are a total of 40 in-
tervals in the study. Let δit be a variable that represents a
particular road safety project or program that was initiated
and implemented within the study period. The variable
takes a value of 1 if the road safety project or program i
was active in a particular interval (quarter) t, and a value
of 0 otherwise. Over a hundred road safety projects and
programs are included in the cluster analysis.
3.2. Method used for cluster analysis
Ward’s method is used to determine which cases or clus-
ters should be combined at each step (Jarrell, 1994). Each
road safety project or program is considered as a case in
the analysis. In Ward’s method, the Euclidean distance mea-
sure is used to calculate the similarity between cases in each
cluster. The Euclidean distance between Case i and Case j
is determined by


dij = (δit − δjt )2 (1)
t
where the summation is applied to all time intervals in the
analysis. Ward’s method adopts an agglomerative hierarchi-
cal clustering procedure that groups cases together accord-
ing to their similarity as measured by the squared Euclidean
distance. Initially, each case is regarded as a separate cluster.
All of the cases are then grouped into clusters in a stepwise
 S.C. Wong et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 (2004) 281–293 283

Table 1
The road safety policy strategy clusters that were identified in the cluster analysis
Strategy cluster Category Strategy descriptor
1 Publicity Publicizing of road safety messages through souvenir items
2 Publicity Road safety campaigns targeted at drivers of different vehicle classes
3 Publicity Publicizing of road safety issues by non-government bodies
4 Publicity Dissemination of pedestrian safety messages through printed items
5 Education Road safety programs organized by the Hong Kong Police Force
6 Publicity Publicizing of road safety legislation through printed items
7 Publicity Dissemination of road safety legislation messages through electronic media
8 Publicity Broadcasting of road safety messages through various electronic media
9 Publicity Encouragement of safe driving attitudes through various media
10A Education Raising public awareness of road safety through local publicity campaigns
10B Legislation Drink driving legislation
11 Education Introduction of road safety knowledge to the general public through formal educational programs
12 Enforcement Enforcement of vehicle maintenance laws
13 Enforcement Toughening of the penalty for tailgating
14A Legislation Rear seat belt legislation
14B Enforcement Installation of speed cameras
15 Enforcement Deterrence of red light jumping

procedure using the statistical software SPSS (Norusis,
1993; Coakes and Steed, 1999).
3.3. Results of cluster analysis
The results of the cluster analysis indicated that the road
safety projects and programs could be clustered into sets
of distinct road safety policy strategies according to their
implementation schedules. Together with careful consider-
ations of their strategic goals, measure characteristics and
target populations, a total of 17 policy strategy clusters were
identified, and are summarized in Table 1.
The policy strategy clusters can be categorized according
to the approaches that were employed, namely: publicity,
education, legislation, and enforcement. Publicity and edu-
cation aim at instilling knowledge of road traffic safety rules,
encouraging the correct behavior and attitudes of road users
in various traffic situations, and developing public awareness
of the importance and usefulness of road safety measures.
Continuous publicity in various media constantly reminds
road users of the importance of correct attitudes and behavior
in a road system, which helps to reinforce the effectiveness
of road safety education. Publicity and education are needed
to encourage self-discipline. There are occasions whereby
people fail to restrain themselves, and legislation and en-
forcement are required to regulate the safe use of road space.
Detailed descriptions of these policy strategy clusters can be
found in Wong et al. (2002). The discussions of various pol-
icy clusters and their relative effectiveness in reducing the
casualty rates of road users will be given in Section 4.3.
4. Autoregression analysis
4.1. Dependent variables
In the autoregression analysis, the dependent variables in-
clude the casualty rates for the four classes of road users—
driver, passenger, motorcyclist, and pedestrian—at three lev-
els of accident severity—fatal, serious, and slight. Hence,
there are a total of 12 dependent variables. For drivers, pas-
sengers, and motorcyclists, the casualty rate is defined as the
number of casualties in a quarter of a year divided by the
average vehicle fleet size in that quarter; whereas for pedes-
trians, the casualty rate is defined as the number of casual-
ties in a quarter divided by the average population in that
quarter. There are a total of 40 sample points, one for each
quarter in the 1990–1999 period.
The casualty rates for drivers, passengers, motorcyclists
and pedestrians in the study period are plotted in Figs. 1–4,
respectively. The casualty rates are in log-scale to allow
temporal variations of the fatal and serious series to be
properly shown. All of the casualty rates show a declining
trend in the last decade, with the exception of the fatality
rate of drivers, which does not have any obvious trend. In
view of the noticeable declining trends in the time series,
autocorrelation (serial correlation) needs to be taken into
account in the regression analysis. As a consequence, we
computed the Durban–Watson statistics and the Box–Ljung
statistics on the residuals of the 12 linear multiple regres-
sion equations (DeLurgio, 1998; Wei, 1990). The results
confirm that autocorrelation is statistically significant and it
is more appropriate for us to conduct autoregression at the
second stage of analysis. Moreover, Figs. 1–4 suggest that
there are seasonal fluctuations in the accident data. Hence,
the trend and seasonal patterns are modeled as two compo-
nents in the autoregression analysis. Lastly, it is considered
that a multiplicative autoregression model based on the
rate of change of the dependent variables over time (which
allows variable slopes over the value of the dependent
variable and hence constant elasticity) is more appropriate
than an additive model based on particular values (points)
of the dependent variables (which leads to constant slopes
over the value of the dependent variable and hence variable
elasticity) (DeLurgio, 1998; Greene, 2003).
284 S.C. Wong et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 (2004) 281–293

Fig. 1. The casualty rates of drivers.

Fig. 2. The casualty rates of passengers.

S.C. Wong et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 (2004) 281–293 285

Fig. 3. The casualty rates of motorcyclists.

Fig. 4. The casualty rates of pedestrians.

286 S.C. Wong et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 (2004) 281–293

4.2. Independent variables
Based on the cluster analysis results, the strategy variables
are formed as follows. Let there be a set of strategy clus-
ters C. Each strategy cluster c contains a set of road safety
projects and programs, Ωc . The strategy clusters within the
set are mutually exclusive, i.e. Ωc ∩ Ωc = φ, an empty set,
for all c and c in C; and ∪c∈C = Ω, the set of all road
safety projects and programs. For each strategy cluster c, the
policy variable is defined as
 the independent variables) may still exist in the regression
i∈Ω δit
yct =   c +1 (2)
t i∈Ωc δit
where yct is a strategy index that represents a normalized
strategy profile for each strategy cluster c. The constant 1 is
included to enable us to conduct natural log transformation
and build the multiplicative model.
In examining the strategy profiles for publicity, educa-
tion, legislation, and enforcement in the last decade, it is
interesting to note that publicity and education received
much attention after 1995, which reflects a deliberate shift
in government policy. Moreover, new road safety enforce-
ment measures were continuously developed and imple-
mented over the period, which indicates the government’s
determination to reduce traffic accidents.
To study the interrelationships between the strategy clus-
ters, a bivariate correlation analysis was performed on the
transformed variables, and the correlation matrix is shown
as Table 2. Some strategy clusters were found to be highly
correlated, and should not be included together in the au-
toregression analysis. In Table 2, high bivariate correlation
coefficients (with r > 0.7) are highlighted. In the subse-
quent analysis, these highly correlated clusters are not simul-
taneously included into the autocorrelation model to avoid
confounding the underlying relationships between the pol-
icy clusters and the casualty rates. Based on the bivariate
correlation matrix, clusters 5, 6, 9, 10A, 10B, 13, 14A and
14B are excluded. In other words, this qualitative analysis
requires manual intervention to eliminate the least signifi-
cant influencing strategy cluster. Such care in handling the
independent variables helps to minimize the problems of
multicollinearity. However, as the bivariate correlation ma-
trix only measures simple correlation between two variables,
the problem of multicollinearity (multiple correlation among
model (Hair et al., 1995). We further assess multicollinear-
ity in Section 4.3.
Apart from the regular seasonal variations, such as the
Chinese new year and Christmas period, atypical meteoro-
logical conditions, such as an exceptionally wet and windy
summer, could well have influenced road safety because they
affect road conditions and the driving environment. There-
fore, a set of meteorological variables is used to capture the
effects of atypical weather conditions on road safety. The
following meteorological data were collected for the study
period: average air temperature (◦ C), average relative hu-
midity (%), total rainfall (mm), total bright sunshine hours
(h) and average wind speed (km/h). After the transforma-
tion, temperature and wind are highly correlated with rain
(this reflects the tropical monsoon climate in Hong Kong).
Thus, temperature and wind are excluded from the autore-
gression analysis. In the next section, we also test whether
such exclusion is justifiable statistically.
4.3. Method used for autoregression analysis
The multiple regression equation takes the following
form:

Table 2
The bivariate correlation table for the policy strategy clusters
Strategy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10A 10B 11 12 13 14A 14B 15

1 1.00
2 −0.25 1.00
3 0.16 −0.24 1.00
4 0.27 −0.31 −0.30 1.00
5 −0.28 −0.28 0.30 0.81∗∗ 1.00
6 0.30 −0.20 −0.16 −0.15 0.04 1.00
7 0.36∗∗ −0.29 0.32∗∗ 0.07 0.20 0.66∗∗ 1.00
8 0.16 −0.23 0.49∗∗ 0.59∗∗ 0.48∗∗ −0.15 0.52∗∗ 1.00
9 0.13 −0.18 0.59∗∗ 0.24 0.23 −0.12 −0.17 −0.13 1.00
10A 0.50∗∗ −0.20 0.39∗∗ 0.50∗∗ 0.71∗∗ 0.40∗∗ 0.53∗∗ 0.38∗∗ 0.30 1.00
10B 0.54∗∗ −0.25 0.44∗∗ 0.57∗∗ 0.75∗∗ 0.36∗∗ 0.54∗∗ 0.43∗∗ 0.34∗∗ 0.99∗∗ 1.00
11 0.67∗∗ −0.03 −0.05 −0.13 −0.09 0.38∗∗ 0.26 −0.12 −0.01 0.43∗∗ 0.40∗∗ 1.00
12 0.41∗∗ −0.23 0.12 0.16 0.02 0.10 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.29 0.28 0.56∗∗ 1.00
13 0.41∗∗ −0.31 0.75∗∗ 0.33∗∗ 0.31 0.01 0.49∗∗ 0.45∗∗ 0.59∗∗ 0.48∗∗ 0.58∗∗ 0.13 0.16 1.00
14A 0.45∗∗ −0.40∗∗ 0.59∗∗ 0.78∗∗ 0.78∗∗ −0.07 0.33∗∗ 0.58∗∗ 0.46∗∗ 0.62∗∗ 0.73∗∗ 0.01 0.21 0.79∗∗ 1.00
14B 0.45∗∗ −0.40∗∗ 0.59∗∗ 0.78∗∗ 0.78∗∗ −0.07 0.33∗∗ 0.58∗∗ 0.46∗∗ 0.62∗∗ 0.73∗∗ 0.01 0.21 0.79∗∗ 1.00 1.00
15 0.75∗∗ −0.19 0.28 0.37∗∗ 0.44∗∗ 0.24 0.35∗∗ 0.28 0.22 0.64∗∗ 0.65∗∗ 0.63∗∗ 0.43∗∗ 0.38∗∗ 0.48∗∗ 0.48 1.00
Correlation coefficients greater than 0.7 or smaller than −0.7 are typed in italics.
∗∗ Significant at 0.05 level.
 S.C. Wong et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 (2004) 281–293
 
ln(z) = γ0 + αc ln(yc ) + βj ln(mj )
+ γ1 Q1 + γ2 Q2 + γ3 Q3 + ρet−1 + et (3)
where z is a particular casualty rate; yc the strategy vari-
able; mj the meteorological variable; Q1 , Q2 and Q3 the
dummy seasonal variables; et the error term for time t; ρ the
first-order autoregression coefficient (denoting autocorrela-
tion of errors); γ0 the constant (capturing the mean influ-
ence of other variables not included in the model); and αc ,
βj , γ 1 , γ 2 and γ 3 are the partial regression coefficients. To
avoid the dummy variable trap, the fourth quarter of the year
is dropped and is part of the constant term γ0 . The optimal
value of ρ is estimated by the Cochrane–Orcutt iterative least
squares (COILS) method (DeLurgio, 1998; Greene, 2003;
Isard et al., 1998). The F-statistics, significant F-statistics
and variance inflation factor (VIF) are not computed be-
cause the assumptions of ordinary least-squares regression
analysis do not hold in time series analysis.
Instead, we conduct Partial F-tests to determine whether
the exclusion of the seven policy cluster regressors and two
meteorological regressors, as explained in Section 4.2, is
justified statistically. The Partial F is given by the equation:
(µR /µU )/m
Fcalculated = (4)
µU /(n − k)
where µU is the unrestricted sum of square (SSE) with
all variables in the model, µR the restricted SSE with m
variables excluded, k the total number of estimated coef-
ficients and m the number of dropped independent vari-
ables. The Partial F-test “is an important test because with
multicollinearity problems, individual regression coefficient
t-values are not reliable measures for determining whether
or not to include a variable or group of variables” (DeLurgio,
1998, p. 414). For autoregression, this test is even more im-
portant because the estimation of ρ makes use of the full
information of all independent variables and does not allow
the stepwise procedure to be followed. Based on the degree
of freedom of the numerator (m) and denominator (n − k),
and the significant level (α), the critical F, Ftable , can be
obtained from a statistical table. The null hypothesis is that
there is no significant additional explained variance from the
unrestricted model (with all variables included). It implies
that the exclusion of the m independent variables from the
autoregression is justified statistically and they do not ac-
count for additional explained variance. In other words, the
inclusion of these excluded variables will result in multi-
collinearity. The null hypothesis is rejected when
Fcalculated > Ftable
Results of the Partial F-tests with the exclusion of the
seven policy clusters and two meteorological variables
show that the problem of multicollinearity has been quite
successfully dealt with in most cases. In 9 out of 12 autore-
gression models, the values of Fcalculated are smaller than the
critical F (Ftable = 2.65). In other words, the exclusion of
selected variables is justified statistically and the excluded
287
variables do not contribute to additional explained vari-
ance. The three exceptions are serious casualty of drivers
(Fcalculated = 4.935), serious casualty of motorcyclists
(Fcalculated = 2.744) and serious casualty of pedestrians
(Fcalculated = 4.014).
As a result, we further examine the unrestricted model and
refine the first restrictive model in search for a better model
to fit individual autoregression equations. To recall, the first
restrictive model excludes policy clusters 5, 6, 9, 10A, 10B,
13, 14A and 14B, and the meteorological variables of tem-
perature and rainfall. Built upon the first restrictive model
and the results of the unrestricted model, more than five ad-
ditional restrictive models (with different combinations of
excluded variables) have been tried in identifying the best
models that have the highest explanatory power but do not
suffer from multicollinearity. For each of these models, the
Partial F-test is conducted for all 12 autoregression equa-
tions. When the results of the Partial F-tests, the COILS R2
of the model and the partial regression coefficients are con-
sidered, the second restrictive model is built by including
policy clusters 9 and 13 in the first restrictive model. This
second restrictive model provides a better fit for 7 out of the
12 autoregression equations. They are the casualty rates for
motorcyclists at all levels of severity, the fatal and serious
casualty rates of drivers and the serious and slight casualty
rates of pedestrians. For the other equations, the second re-
strictive model represents a poorer fit and the first restrictive
model is adopted. These findings are intuitively logical and
powerful because different combinations of policy strate-
gies are likely to be the most effective in reducing casualty
for different classes of road users. Statistically, the underly-
ing relationships among the variability of the dependent and
independent variables vary for different sets of dependent
variables.
4.4. Results of autoregression analysis: effectiveness
of measures
The autoregression results for different classes of road
users and severity levels are summarized in Table 3. The par-
tial regression coefficients significant at 0.05 level and the
summary results of COILS are presented. Under the multi-
plicative model, a partial regression coefficient can be inter-
preted as the elasticity of the regressor, indicating its relative
impact on the dependent variable (Greene, 2003). In other
words, a highly effective policy cluster in reducing a par-
ticular casualty rate should be a negative partial regression
coefficient higher than 1.
Before we examine the results of individual autoregres-
sion models, it is worthwhile to highlight some general ob-
servations. First, the values of the COILS R2 of the fatality
models are generally much lower than those of the serious
and slight models for all classes of road users. In partic-
ular, the explanatory power of the models for the fatality
of drivers (R2 = 0.540) and motorcyclists (R2 = 0.582) is
low. These results suggest that the road safety measures in
288 S.C. Wong et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 (2004) 281–293

Table 3
Summary of the autoregression results
Category/unit Driver casualty rate Passenger casualty rate

Fatal Serious Slight Fatal Serious Slight

Constant – −10.270 (0.022)

Strategy
1 Publicity 4.340 (0.027) 4.266 (0.001)
2 Publicity
3 Publicity 2.487 (0.000) −2.280 (0.030) 1.123 (0.003) 0.532 (0.024)
4 Publicity 7.439 (0.006) −1.697 (0.013) −1.652 (0.021)
5 Education
6 Publicity
7 Publicity −2.811 (0.000) −1.589 (0.002) −1.637 (0.001) −0.728 (0.023)
8 Publicity −5.998 (0.024) 1.670 (0.002)
9 Publicity −1.484 (0.011)
10A Education
10B Legislation
11 Education
12 Enforcement −9.710 (0.000) −7.114 (0.008) 14.764 (0.041) −5.523 (0.020) −4.421 (0.008)
13 Enforcement
14A Legislation
14B Enforcement
15 Enforcement 33.799 (0.045) 7.871 (0.030)
Crashworthiness Average star rating −4.189 (0.033) −0.835 (0.045) −0.970 (0.017) −1.267 (0.004) −1.100 (0.000)
Sunshine h
Wind Speed km/h
Humidity % −2.798 (0.005)
Rain mm 0.151 (0.001) 0.097 (0.013) 0.079 (0.002)
Quarter
1 Dummy 0.293 (0.036)
2 Dummy
3 Dummy
COILS estimates
R2 0.540 0.939 0.945 0.708 0.923 0.921
Number of iteration 10 6 10 10 5 6
ρ −0.634 −0.578 −0.781 −0.335 −0.619 −0.369
Category/unit Motorcyclist casualty rate Pedestrian casualty rate

Fatal Serious Slight Fatal Serious Slight

Constant – −6.532 (0.042)

Strategy
1 Publicity
2 Publicity 0.555 (0.042)
3 Publicity −2.486 (0.014) 1.055 (0.007)
4 Publicity −1.146 (0.016) −3.813 (0.048) −1.709 (0.002)
5 Education
6 Publicity
7 Publicity −4.078 (0.004) −1.739 (0.000) −2.046 (0.001)
8 Publicity 1.262 (0.010)
9 Publicity −1.271 (0.004)
10A Education
10B Legislation
11 Education
12 Enforcement
13 Enforcement −4.032 (0.000) −1.478 (0.026)
14A Legislation
14B Enforcement
15 Enforcement
Crashworthiness Average star rating −0.760 (0.028) −0.803 (0.012)
Sunshine h
Wind Speed km/h
Humidity % −1.774 (0.022) −1.939 (0.018)
Rain mm
Quarter
1 Dummy
2 Dummy 0.230 (0.023)
3 Dummy
COILS estimates
R2 0.582 0.890 0.936 0.863 0.975 0.897
Number of iteration 6 5 8 10 5 5
ρ −0.442 −0.474 −0.334 −0.178 −0.424 −0.144

The values in parenthesis indicate the level of significance for t-statistics.

 S.C. Wong et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 (2004) 281–293
Hong Kong over the last decade has in general been more
effective in reducing serious and slight injuries than fatality.
For serious injuries, the explanatory power of the models
also differs among different classes of road users. Generally,
the road safety measures adopted in Hong Kong have been
more powerful in explaining for changes in the serious casu-
alty rates of pedestrians (R2 = 0.975), followed by drivers
(R2 = 0.939), passengers (R2 = 0.923), and finally motor-
cyclists (R2 = 0.890). For slight injuries, the road safety
measures adopted in Hong Kong have been more powerful
in accounting for changes in the slight casualty rates of
drivers (R2 = 0.945). The explanatory power is weaker in
accounting for slight injuries of pedestrians (R2 = 0.897).
Generally, the government’s road safety strategy in the
1990–1999 period has been the most effective in explaining
for the fall in serious injuries of pedestrians (R2 = 0.975).
As in other social sciences research, the model does not
claim to take into account all factors affecting road acci-
dents in Hong Kong and some regression coefficients seem
to be of the “wrong” signs. These other factors (in a sense
reflected in the constant term of the autoregression model)
and unexpected relationships are important subjects for
further research. For instance, we treat the fatal, serious,
slight casualty rates of different classes of road users as 12
independent variables but these casualty rates can be related
in some ways. (To illustrate, the seat belt legislation may
reduce fatality and thereby increase the serious and slight
injury rates.) Nonetheless, most autoregression models do
possess satisfactory explanatory power—the R2 of the mod-
els are reasonably high and most regression coefficients
turn out to have the “correct” signs. More importantly, the
analysis provides useful information to policy-makers and
citizens alike in understanding and evaluating the effec-
tiveness of different road safety measures adopted in Hong
Kong over the last decade. It is against this background that
we interpret the results of the autoregression analysis.
4.4.1. Drivers
The fatality rate of drivers was not well explained by the
autoregression model (R2 = 0.540). Moreover, only two
regression coefficients are having the expected signs. They
are car crashworthiness (−4.189) and policy strategy cluster
8 (−5.998). The improvement of car crashworthiness over
the last decade contributed significantly to the reduction of
drivers’ fatality. In fact, the multiplicative model suggests
that an improvement in the car crashworthiness of 1% is ex-
pected to be associated with 4.189% reduction in drivers’
fatality rate. Across different types of car users and casualty
rates, the vehicle crashworthiness improvement has been the
most effective in reducing drivers’ fatality. Furthermore, an
examination of strategy cluster 8 shows that it mainly en-
compassed the broadcasting of road safety messages through
various electronic media. In particular, there was a series of
radio segments to broadcast safety tips. The use of the ra-
dio may be quite effective in instilling road safety awareness
among drivers.
289
Table 3 also shows that publicity and enforcement were
significant contributing factors in reducing the serious casu-
alty rate of drivers. In particular, policy cluster 12 (−9.710)
on enforcing the vehicle maintenance laws to ensure that
all vehicles are maintained properly and were roadworthy
has also been highly effective in reducing the serious casu-
alty rate of drivers. Moreover, the publicity-related strategy
clusters of 7 (−2.811) and 9 (−1.484) were significant in
reducing the serious casualty rate of drivers over the last
decade. Strategy cluster 7, which includes measures of dis-
seminating important messages about upcoming road safety
legislations and the implementation dates of these legisla-
tions, was effective in raising the alertness of drivers about
road safety. In fact, strategy cluster 7 may better be con-
ceptualized as “publicity/legislation”; and it highlights the
fact that road safety legislations alone may not be effective
unless when they were accompanied by vigorous publicity
efforts. Strategy cluster 9 targeting at the seriousness of care-
less driving and behavior such as speeding, reckless lane
changing, and tailgating has also been playing a significant
role in accounting for the declining serious casualty rate of
drivers. In contrast, high rainfall (0.151) and the spring sea-
son (0.293) were significant contributory factors to serious
casualty rate of drivers. Rainfall can lead to slippery road
and lower tire friction, hence, higher accident rates. In Hong
Kong, spring is often associated with low visibility. Due the
topological and other geographical factors, the smog prob-
lem is often serious in the first quarter of the year. Lastly,
there are negative relationships of the serious driver casualty
rate with relative humidity (−2.798) and the crashworthiness
of cars (−0.835). With better vehicle design and manufactur-
ing technology, drivers have been better protected in traffic
accidents. When the effects of rainfall and the first quarter of
the year have been filtered, relative humidity has been nega-
tively associated with the serious casualty rate. This may be
due to the fact that low relative humidity is often associated
with stronger and more dazzling sunlight in Hong Kong.
For slight injury of drivers, strategy cluster 12 has been
the most powerful (−7.114) in accounting for the falling ca-
sualty rate. In fact, the promotion of regular vehicle mainte-
nance also helped to ensure that vehicles functioned safely
on the roads. The slight casualty rate of drivers was also
negatively related to the publicity measures. In particular,
strategy clusters 4 (−1.697) and 7 (−1.589). In a sense, the
above findings suggest that publicity has been quite effective
in improving the safety of drivers. Apart from government
efforts, the improvement in the crashworthiness of vehicles
over the past decade has also been a significant contributory
factor in reducing the slight casualty rate of drivers (−0.970).
4.4.2. Passengers
Many passengers are killed or seriously injured in traffic
accidents that are caused by carelessness or reckless driving
attitudes. A passenger in a vehicle can do very little to avoid
an accident. Therefore, to reduce the passenger casualty rate,
measures that target drivers are the most effective, such as
290 S.C. Wong et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 (2004) 281–293
encouraging drivers to have correct driving behavior and to
educate them in road safety awareness.
It is important to note that the fatality rate was negatively
correlated with strategy cluster 3 (−2.280), which represents
the general realization among the driving population of the
importance of good driving habits and skills. This created a
market for the promotion of safe driving by private sectors
through publications and magazines, such as the Hong Kong
Automobile Association’s “Motorist”, which carried useful
road safety messages to highlight the dangerous driving be-
havior, for example, tailgating, speeding, and careless lane
changing.
Again, results on the autoregression analysis suggest that
the serious casualty rate of passengers has been related to a
much wider spectrum of variables, including car crashwor-
thiness and the seasonal variables. The results also show that
the publicity strategy clusters of 4 (−1.652) and 7 (−1.637)
and the enforcement on vehicle maintenance, i.e. strategy
cluster 12 (−5.523), have been highly effective in reduc-
ing the serious casualty rate of passengers. Moreover, the
improvement of car crashworthiness (−1.267) also signifi-
cantly accounts for the fall in serious injuries of passengers.
Conversely, rainfall (0.097) has been positively associated
with the serious casualty rate for passengers.
Findings about the slight casualty rate of passengers are
highly consistent with the situation of serious injuries. Strat-
egy cluster 12 on enforcement (−4.421) and strategy clus-
ter 7 on publicity (−0.728) are important in accounting for
the drop in the slight casualty rate of passengers. Moreover,
higher rainfall (0.079) was associated with higher slight ca-
sualty rate. Once again, the improvement in car crashwor-
thiness (−1.100) has proven to be a statistically important
factor in protecting passengers from both serious and slight
casualties.
4.4.3. Motorcyclists
Our autoregression model was the least powerful in ex-
plaining for the fatality rate of motorcyclists over the last
decade (R2 = 0.52). None of the policy clusters were signif-
icant in explaining for the fall in the fatality of motorcyclists.
This may have reflected the predominant attention of the
government in targeting private vehicle drivers and passen-
gers, as evidenced from the seat belt legislations and other
publicity materials about drink driving and speeding, over
the 1990–1999 period. This has changed recently with the
introduction of the probationary driving license system of
motorcyclists on 1 December 2000 (Transport Department,
2002). Yet, the first-order autoregression coefficient (ρ) was
negative (−0.442), highlighting that the general trend has
been for the fatality rate of motorcyclists to fall. In other
words, the general road safety publicity, education, legis-
lation and enforcement measures may still be important in
raising the general road safety awareness of the general pub-
lic, including motorcyclists. However, more focused efforts
targeted at motorcyclists may be required to bring about sig-
nificant reduction in the motorcyclist fatality rate.
For serious motorcyclist casualty rate, it is noteworthy to
highlight that strategy cluster 13 (−4.032) on toughening of
the penalty for tailgating was particular powerful in account-
ing for the declining rate. In fact, tailgating is one of the most
common contributory factors to traffic accidents that involve
motorcycles. Motorcyclists enjoy easy maneuverability and
can easily move through the small gaps between cars to avoid
traffic congestion. However, this often leads to tailgating. To
tackle this problem, anti-tailgating operations were mounted
by the Traffic Police on major expressways. Vehicles, in-
cluding motorcycles, were required to maintain a gap of at
least 2 s between themselves and the vehicles ahead. This
reduced the chance of front–rear collisions between vehicles
in cases of emergency or sudden braking. Although for mo-
torcars front–rear collisions may not be as serious as other
kinds of traffic accidents, such as head-on collisions, they
usually cause serious injuries to unprotected motorcyclists.
Other than the anti-tailgating operation of strategy cluster
13 (−1.478), one other publicity-related strategy cluster 4
(−1.146) was statistically significantly in accounting for the
drop in the slight casualty rate of motorcyclists. Moreover, an
important observation is that car crashworthiness (−0.760)
was again negatively associated with the slight casualty rate
of motorcyclists. Although the car crashworthiness rating in
this study does not directly measure crashworthiness of mo-
torcycles, this independent variable may be seen as indica-
tive of the better technology in vehicle manufacturing, such
as the improvement of the ABS brake system, that helps to
reduce casualties not only for drivers and passengers inside
the cars but all other parties on the road, such as the motor-
cyclists and pedestrians. Lastly, we note that the slight ca-
sualty rate of motorcyclists was also negatively associated
with relative humidity (−1.774) but it was higher in the sec-
ond quarter of the year (0.230). This might have reflected the
higher incentives of motorcyclists to drive during the warm
weather of the second quarter in Hong Kong and, hence, the
higher slight casualty rate. Another plausible explanation is
the higher tendency for drivers and motorcyclists alike to
drive faster and lower their guard during clear days.
4.4.4. Pedestrians
The publicity campaigns, including strategy clusters 3
(−2.486), 4 (−3.813) and 7 (−4.078), played a crucial
role in reducing the fatality rate of pedestrians, as they tar-
geted the whole population rather than any sub-population,
such as a particular driver community. Publicity campaigns
under strategy cluster 7 made use of various electronic
media, such as television, radio and the Internet, to dissem-
inate road safety legislation messages. They proved to be
very effective in disseminating pedestrian safety messages.
Moreover, strategy cluster 4 that mainly encompassed dis-
semination of pedestrian safety messages through printed
items was also highly effective in reducing the pedestrian
fatality rate. Important pedestrian safety messages such as
“observe the traffic rules”, “traffic rules protect you”, and
“green light—all right” were printed on giveaway items that
 S.C. Wong et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 (2004) 281–293 291

were distributed to the public. Under this strategy cluster,
colorful posters with road safety messages were displayed
in public places and different forms of public transport.
These items reminded people of the importance of road
safety, and could have helped to reduce the number of fatal
accidents that involved pedestrians. Moreover, the efforts of
non-governmental organizations in promoting road safety
(strategy cluster 3) have also been playing a major role in
contributing to the fall in the fatality rate of passengers over
the last decade.
For the serious casualty rate of pedestrians, it is important
to note that, apart from publicity policy cluster 7 (−1.739),
strategy cluster 9 (−1.271) has also been important in re-
ducing the casualty rate. The use of television commercials,
radio announcements, web sites and eye-catching posters on
public transportation has been instrumental in raising the
road safety awareness of the general public. Moreover, car
crashworthiness index (−0.803) has also been negative as-
sociated with the serious casualty rate of pedestrians. As
mentioned earlier, this index reflects the general technolog-
ical advancement in vehicle manufacturing, including the
brake system, that helps to improve the safety of all road
users. Lastly, publicity-related strategies 4 (−1.709) and 7
(−2.046) have been important in explaining the declining
slight casualty rate of pedestrians. The widespread dissemi-
nation of pedestrian safety messages through the display of
road safety posters in public places and various forms of pub-
lic transportation, and the distribution of leaflets, has been
effective. Again, relative humidity (−1.939) has been nega-
tively associated with the slight casualty rate of pedestrians.
5. Validation tests
As in most time series analysis, we are interested in
validating the results of our model. In order to test the sen-
sitivity of our results to the particularities of the sampling,
the empirical validation approach is adopted. One way is to

Table 4
Predictive power of the full and validation models
Driver casualty rate Passenger casualty rate

Fatal Serious Slight Fatal Serious Slight

Observed rates (z)

Mean 0.000024 0.000364 0.002270 0.000023 0.000495 0.003657
Standard deviation 8.37E−06 6.74E−05 4.90E−04 6.81E−06 8.66E−05 4.04E−04
Full sample model (EZRM )
Mean 0.000023 0.000364 0.002268 0.000023 0.000495 0.003655
Standard deviation 6.68E−06 6.70E−05 4.81E−04 5.55E−06 8.13E−05 3.86E−04
COILS R2 0.53978162 0.93901965 0.94473351 0.70793896 0.92330352 0.92097684
COILS standard error 0.41600327 0.08694897 0.07027991 0.23377713 0.09021057 0.05309911
Average percentage of absolute difference with z (%) 24.86 4.96 3.87 18.89 5.45 3.05
Validation model (EZVM )
Mean 0.000048 0.000352 0.002262 0.000022 0.000473 0.003643
Standard deviation 7.33E−5 7.28E−05 4.80E−04 7.74E−06 9.88E−05 3.92E−04
COILS R2 0.75401501 0.96563597 0.96664509 0.71884343 0.96998003 0.9434613
COILS standard error 0.34071616 0.06622404 0.06245882 0.2358295 0.06239546 0.0483615
Average percentage of absolute difference with z (%) 128.06 6.98 4.07 24.9 7.00 3.16
Motorcyclist casualty rate Pedestrian casualty rate

Fatal Serious Slight Fatal Serious Slight

Observed rates (z)

Mean 0.000228 0.005590 0.020635 0.000007 0.000063 0.000156
Standard deviation 1.02E−04 9.81E−04 3.03E−03 2.42E−06 1.31E−05 2.23E−05
Full sample model (EZRM )
Mean 0.000219 0.005582 0.020626 0.000007 0.000063 0.000156
Standard deviation 8.01E−05 8.99E−04 2.85E−03 2.26E−06 1.28E−05 2.01E−05
COILS R2 0.58224381 0.88968861 0.935509 0.86259042 0.97543765 0.89699589
COILS standard error 0.48591366 0.09962083 0.06562521 0.20847078 0.06169425 0.06800102
Average percentage of absolute difference with z (%) 24.47 5.67 3.54 12.43 3.43 3.62
Validation model (EZVM )
Mean 0.000208 0.005699 0.019904 0.000007 0.000065 0.000159
Standard deviation 8.96E−05 9.32E−04 3.99E−03 2.35E−06 1.07E−05 1.80E−05
COILS R2 0.39092243 0.87653297 0.88228582 0.85938022 0.95789678 0.83557038
COILS standard error 0.58545153 0.08971619 0.06408398 0.21418364 0.06893747 0.07713527
Average percentage of absolute difference with z (%) 29.86 7.16 6.73 14.77 8.00 5.46
292 S.C. Wong et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 (2004) 281–293
Fig. 5. Predictive power of the autoregression model for the slight casualty rate of drivers.
test our model on a new sample drawn from the general
population. However, this is not feasible because of limited
data availability for a sufficiently long period. Thus, we take
the split sample approach by dividing the sample into the
estimation and validation sub-samples (Hair et al., 1995).
For the sake of simplicity, we take the last eight observations,
i.e. the eight quarters from 1998 to 1999, to be the validation
sub-sample and run the autoregression analysis again. For
this validation model, the estimation period is from the first
quarter of 1990 to the last quarter of 1997 and the prediction
period extends to the end of the study period, i.e. the last
quarter of 1999. In fact, “the need for continued validation
efforts and model refinements remind us that no regression
model, unless estimated from the entire population, is the
final and absolute model” (Hair et al., 1995, page 128).
Based on the fit of the results of the validation autoregres-
sion models, we save the expected values of the casualty
rate, EZVM , and then compare this to the expected values
of the casualty rate of the full period, EZRM , and the actual
observed value of the casualty rate, z. The predictive power
of the full and validation models is summarized in Table 4.
The additional sample points for 1998–1999 do contribute
to a better degree of estimation. Nonetheless, differences of
the validation model are reasonably good with the average
percentage of error (under- or over-estimation) to be much
lower than 10% in all but the fatality models. Again, these
observations are reasonable because of the much lower ex-
planatory power of these autoregression models in the first
place. Their predictive power is, therefore, also particularly
sensitive to sampling particularities. Caution is needed when
applying the autoregression model for estimating the fatal-
ity rates. In contrast, the predictive power is the strongest
and most stable for slight casualty rates. The average degree
of difference of the validation autoregression models is only
3.16% for passengers, 4.07% for drivers, 5.46% for pedes-
trians and 6.73% for motorcyclists. In comparison, the av-
erage degree of difference of the full sample autoregression
models is 3.05, 3.87, 3.62 and 3.54% for the passengers,
drivers, pedestrians and motorcyclists, respectively. Fig. 5
displays the observed slight casualty rate of passengers over
the study period, and the expected casualty rates estimated
from the validation and the full sample models for drivers.
It can be seen that the autoregression model quite closely
approximates the observed slight casualty rates and the tak-
ing out of some sample points in estimating the model does
not lead to substantial deterioration in the predictive power.
6. Conclusion
The objective of this paper was to formulate a qualita-
tive assessment methodology for the road safety strategies
that have been carried out during the last decade in Hong
Kong. Based on a cluster analysis, over a hundred road
safety projects and programs were grouped into a smaller
set of meaningful road safety policy strategy clusters that
helped to qualify the various road safety strategies and
their implementation profiles. These strategies, together
with the trend factor, seasonal pattern, car crashworthiness
and meteorological data were used in an autoregression
analysis to relate to the fatality and casualty rates of drivers,
passengers, motorcyclists, and pedestrians.
 S.C. Wong et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 (2004) 281–293
It must be emphasized that the method of analysis that is
proposed in this paper only attempts to qualitatively assess
whether certain road safety policy strategies might be effec-
tive in reducing traffic accidents and casualties. This is by no
means a complete analysis, because it can only identify cer-
tain possible candidate measures that are likely to be benefi-
cial, and which therefore deserve in-depth quantitative study.
For those explanatory variables that are not significant in the
autoregression models, there is merely no strong statistical
evidence to extract their effectiveness on road safety from
the qualitative data sets, and this does not imply that they
might not be locally effective. Lastly, this paper does not
incorporate the delay effect of policy strategies, which will
be an interesting topic for further research. Moreover, the
further disaggregation of accident data in terms of vehicle
classes and age groups will extend this method of analysis.
Acknowledgements
The research was supported by an Outstanding Young
Researcher Award 2000 from The University of Hong Kong.
The authors wish to thank Prof. Richard Allsop, and two
anonymous referees for their helpful suggestions and critical
and constructive comments on an earlier version of the paper.
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