Article No.

9379
Available on www.roymorgan.com
Link to Roy Morgan Profiles

Tuesday, 12 December 2023

PDI-P’s Ganjar (38%) has the edge over Prabowo (30%)

and Anies (25%) in three-way Presidential race
The latest Roy Morgan Poll on 2024 Indonesian Presidential voting intention shows Governor of
Central Java province Ganjar Pranowo on 38% (up 10% points since March quarter 2023) is
clearly the leading candidate according to surveying conducted in July – September 2023 with
2,630 Indonesian electors aged 17+.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Ganjar, who is the candidate for incumbent President Joko Widodo’s Indonesian Democratic Party of
Struggle (PDI-P) was well ahead of 2019 runner-up Prabowo Subianto on 30% (up 13% points) and
former Governor of Jakarta, Anies Rasyid Baswedan on 25% (up 10% points).
Only 7% of Indonesian electors can’t decide between any of the three leading candidates and
nominated another candidate who is unlikely to be in the running.
The surveying for this poll was conducted before the three leading candidates officially announced
their Vice-Presidential running mates and registered with the General Elections Commission to
confirm their candidacy in late October 2023.
The choice of vice-presidential running mates is set to have a significant impact on the results of the
Indonesian Presidential Election.
The Anies Baswedan–Muhaimin Iskandar and Ganjar Pranowo–Mahfud MD pairs officially registered
with the General Elections Commission on 19 October 2023 and the Prabowo Subianto–Gibran
Rakabuming pair officially registered the next week on 25 October 2023.
The race has consolidated around these three candidates with party coalitions lining up behind each
candidate. These parties are all standing in the Indonesian Legislative Elections which will be held on the
same day as the Indonesian Presidential Election – February 14, 2024.
Ganjar leads the Alliance of Political Parties which consists of the PDI-P (34.5% support), PPP (2.5%),
Perindo (1%) and Hanura (negligible support) – a total of 38% support spread between the four parties.
Prabowo leads the Advanced Indonesia Coalition which consists of Gerindra (16.5% support),
Demokrat (12%), Golkar (8%), PAN (2%) and minor parties PSI, PBB, Garuda, Gelora and PA all with
negligible support – a total of 39.5% support spread between the nine parties.
Anies leads the Coalition of Change for Unity which consists of PKS (10% support), NasDem (4%),
PKB (5%) and minor parties Unmat, PDA, SIRA and PAS Aceh all with negligible support – a total of
19% support spread between the seven parties.
President Joko Widodo, who won election in 2014 and re-election five years later in 2019, is term limited
and prevented from running for the position again next year.
The Indonesian general elections, including Presidential and legislative, are due to be held on February 14,
2024, with run-off elections scheduled four months later for mid-June 2024 if required.

Ganjar leads strongly in Java while Prabowo is level pegging with Ganjar in Sumatra
The PDI-P’s Ganjar leads strongly on Indonesia’s most populated island of Java with 41% support, over
10% points ahead of challengers Prabowo (29%) and Anies (25%).
However, on Indonesia’s second most populated island of Sumatra, home to 60 million people, it is a tie
between Prabowo (33%) and Ganjar (33%) with Anies (28%) close behind in third.

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 Minister of Defence Prabowo has the advantage on Indonesia’s two next most populated islands with
around 20 million people each – Sulawesi and Kalimantan. On Sulawesi it is Prabowo (42%) in front of
Ganjar (33%) and Anies (22%) and Prabowo (30%) also leads narrowly over Ganjar (25%) and Anies (25%)
on the island of Kalimantan.
Legislature Voting Intention (July–Sep. 2023): PDI-P well ahead of Gerindra and Demokrats
Today’s Roy Morgan Poll shows President Jokowi’s political party the PDI-P with support of 34.5% in July –
September 2023 and over twice the support of Gerindra, the party of Presidential candidate Prabowo, now in
second place with 16.5% support.
In third place is the Demokrat Party on 12% followed by the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) on 10%, Golkar
on 8% and the National Awakening Party (PKB) on 5%.
Other parties attracting 4% support or less include NasDem on 4%, the United Development Party (PPP) on
1.5%, the National Mandate Party (PAN) on 2%, the Indonesian Unity Party (Perindo) on 1% and a suite of
other minor parties with less than 0.5% support.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan says the Indonesian Presidential and
legislative elections are in just over two months (February 14, 2024) and the clear favourite to
become Indonesia’s next President is PDI-P candidate Ganjar:
“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Indonesian voting intentions at the upcoming Presidential and legislative
elections shows the former Governor of Central Java, Ganjar, on 38% support, is still in prime position
to replace current President Jokowi – also from the Party of Democratic Struggle (PDI-P).
“Ganjar holds a significant lead over current Defence Minister Prabowo (30%) and the former
Governor of Jakarta, Anies (25%) – although none of the three candidates are within striking distance
of a majority of support. This means a run-off election four months later in mid-June is likely.
“The three candidates officially registered their campaigns, and their Vice-Presidential running
mates, with the General Elections Commission in late October. Ganjar is running with Coordinating
Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Mahfud MD, Anies is running with Deputy Speaker
Muhaimin Iskandar and, most interestingly, Prabowo is running with Gibran Rakabuming, Mayor of
Surakarta and son of current President Jokowi.
“Party coalitions have coalesced around the three candidates in recent months with Ganjar heading
a four-party coalition known as the ‘Alliance of Political Parties Supporting Ganjar Pranowo.’
The coalition consists of the PDI-P, United Development Party (PPP), the People’s Conscience
Party (Hanura) and the Indonesian Unity Party (Perindo). Together these four parties are attracting
the support of 38% of electors ahead of the legislative elections.
“Second placed Prabowo leads an eight-party coalition called the ‘Advanced Indonesia Coalition’.
This coalition includes his own party Gerindra (Great Indonesian Movement Party), as well as
Golkar (Party of Functional Groups), Demokrats, PAN (National Mandate Party), PSI (Solidarity
Party), PBB (Crescent Star Party), Garuda (Change Indonesia Guardian Party) and Gelora
(Indonesian People’s Wave Party). Together these eight parties are attracting the support of 39.5%
of electors ahead of the legislative elections.
“The outsider and independent candidate, Anies, is heading up a four-party coalition including
Nasdem, PKB (National Awakening Party), PKS (Prosperous Justice Party) and Ummat. There are
also several supporting parties from the autonomous Indonesian province of Aceh at the northern
tip of the island of Sumatra supporting Anies. Together these parties are attracting the support of
19% of electors ahead of the legislative elections.
“The PDI-P, which is backing Ganjar, is the most powerful party in the Indonesian legislature and
currently holds 128 seats in the legislature – more than 40 seats more than second placed Golkar
(85 seats). Importantly, the support of the PDI-P, has propelled their chosen candidate, Ganjar, into
a sizeable lead on Indonesia’s most important and populous island of Java with 41% support, over
10% points ahead of either Prabowo (29%) or Anies (25%).
 “When it comes to the legislative elections, due to be held at the same time in mid-February, it is
the President Jokowi’s, and candidate Ganjar’s, Party of Democratic Struggle (PDI-P) with over a
third of the support – 34.5%. This is more than double the support of the second-placed Gerindra
(16.5%), third-placed Demokrat on 12% and fourth-placed PKS (10%).
“The results of this Roy Morgan poll conducted shows there is set to be a continuation of the
current policies of President Joko Widodo with his party the PDI-P set to be the big winners at
next year’s election.”

Electors were asked: "If general elections for members of DPR were being held today, for which party's candidate
would you vote?" And for the Presidential poll "I am going to show you a list of candidates for President and Vice-
President. Which one would you be most likely to vote for as President and Vice-President in the next election?”
Finding No. 9379 – This Roy Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

conducted from April – June 2023 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,635 electors aged 17+ and from July
– September 2023 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,630 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews
were conducted in 17 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both
geographically and demographically. There were 9% of electors in the Presidential poll and 1.5% of electors in the
legislative poll couldn’t say who they support.

For further information:

Ira Soekirman: +62 21 5297 1562 +62 811 1654 000

Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention

Presidential Candidates & Dec. Qtr. March Qtr. June Qtr. Sept. Qtr.
Potential People to Vote For 2022 2023 2023 2023
% % % %
Ganjar Pranowo 27 28 29 38
Prabowo Subianto 17 17 17 30
Anies Rasyid Baswedan 17 15 19 25
Others 39 40 35 7
TOTAL 100 100 100 100
Note: The percentage of electors saying ‘Can’t say’ for each period was as follows: December Quarter 2022 (15%),
March Quarter 2023 (10%), June Quarter 2023 (12%) and September Quarter 2023 (9%).

Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention – By Province/ Island*

By Island*
Presidential Candidates & *Island of *Island of *Island of *Island of
Electors Bali
Potential People to Vote For Java Sumatra Sulawesi Kalimantan
% % % % % %
Ganjar Pranowo 38 41 33 33 25 63
Prabowo Subianto 30 29 33 42 30 19
Anies Rasyid Baswedan 25 25 28 22 25 4
Others 7 5 6 3 20 14
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100

*Designations: Island of Java includes the cities of Jakarta & Yogyakarta and the provinces of Banten, West Java (Jawa
Barat), Central Java (Jawa Tengah) and East Java (Jawa Timur); Island of Sumatra includes Southern Sumatra (Sumatera
Selatan), Lampung; Northern Sumatra (Sumatera Utara), West Sumatra (Sumatera Barat) and Riau. Island of Sulawesi
includes Southern Sulawesi (Sulawesi Selatan) and Northern Sulawesi (Sulawesi Utara); Island of Kalimantan includes
East Kalimantan (Kalimantan Timur), Southern Kalimantan (Kalimantan Selatan) and West Kalimantan (Kalimantan Barat).
Note: The percentage of electors saying ‘Can’t say’ for each island was as follows: Java (8%), Sumatra (12%),
Sulawesi (1%), Kalimantan (18%) and Bali (24%).
 Indonesian Legislative Voting Intention Trends (June Qtr. 2021 – September Qtr. 2022)
Legislative
Political June Qtr. Sept. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. March Qtr. June Qtr. Sept. Qtr.
Election
Parties 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022
April 2019
% % % % % % %
PDI-P 19.3 32 30 32 34.5 33.5 36
Gerindra 12.6 14.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5
Demokrat 7.8 13.5 18.5 13.5 12 13 11.5
PKS 8.2 8.5 8 7 7.5 8 7
Golkar 12.3 10.5 8.5 11 11 10.5 9
PKB 9.7 7 8 10 6 6 5.5
NasDem 9.1 1.5 2 2.5 3 2.5 4
PPP 4.5 2.5 2 1.5 3 2.5 3.5
PAN 6.8 3 3 2 1.5 2 1.5
Perindo 2.7 0.5 1 1 1.5 1 1
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Others* 7 6.5 5.5 6 6.5 7.5 7.5

TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
*Other parties polled less than 0.5% of the vote each and include Hanura (Partai Hati Nuranti Rakyat), Garuda
(Partai Gerakan Perubahan Indonesia), PKPI (Partai Keadilan dan Persatuan Indonesia), PSI (Partai
Solidaritas Indonesia), PBB (Partai Bulan Bintang), Berkarya and Others.

Indonesian Legislative Voting Intention Trends (December Qtr. 2022 – September Qtr. 2023)
Legislative
Political Dec. Qtr. March Qtr. June Qtr. Sept. Qtr.
Election
Parties 2022 2023 2023 2023
April 2019
% % % % %
PDI-P 19.3 33 34.5 32 34.5
Gerindra 12.6 13 13 13 16.5
Demokrat 7.8 12.5 14.5 14.5 12
PKS 8.2 8 8.5 9.5 10
Golkar 12.3 10 9 9.5 8
PKB 9.7 8.5 6.5 7.5 5
NasDem 9.1 4.5 3 3.5 4
PPP 4.5 2.5 1.5 2.5 2.5
PAN 6.8 2 2 1.5 2
Perindo 2.7 2 2 2 1
Others* 7 4 5.5 4.5 4.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100
*Other parties polled less than 0.5% of the vote each and include Hanura (Partai Hati Nuranti Rakyat), Garuda
(Partai Gerakan Perubahan Indonesia), PKPI (Partai Keadilan dan Persatuan Indonesia), PSI (Partai
Solidaritas Indonesia), PBB (Partai Bulan Bintang), Berkarya and Others.

Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on
which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be
95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The
figures are approximate and for general guidance only and assume a simple random sample. Allowance
for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Percentage Estimate
Sample Size
40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
2,000 ±2.1 ±1.9 ±1.3 ±1.0
3,000 ±1.9 ±1.7 ±1.2 ±0.8