The Pretend Phase of Cold War II Is Over | The National Interest 12/23/23, 10:19 PM

June 2, 2023 Topic: Great Power Competition Region: Global Tags:

United States, China, Russia, EU, Cold War, Cold War II,
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pretend-phase-cold-war-ii-over-206520 Page 1 of 11
The Pretend Phase of Cold War II Is Over | The National Interest 12/23/23, 10:19 PM

Great Power Competition

The Pretend Phase of Cold

War II Is Over
America is now openly in a cold war with China and Russia. Here is a
list of indicators that would demonstrate American seriousness about
tackling this challenge.

by Dan Negrea James Jay Carafano

Great power competition is old hat. Systemic rivals are already passe. The
Second Cold War has started. China and Russia started it. It is past time to
acknowledge this and start fighting back.

The Chinese regime is an existential threat to the peace and prosperity of the
United States and its allies, partners, and friends. Xi Jinping’s appetites are
global—from occupying democratic Taiwan to reshaping land borders with
India, from redrawing maritime boundaries with its neighbors to imposing
strategic dependencies on other nations and blackmailing them economically—
all the while building both nuclear and conventional forces to intimidate any
opposition.

Xi also greenlit Vladimir Putin’s aggressive war against Ukraine and forged a de
facto alliance between China and Russia. Over the past decade, the two
autocrats have held an astonishing forty one-on-one meetings—a frequency
surpassing their engagements with any other foreign leader by more than
twofold. While the United States and other democratic countries were isolating
Putin diplomatically, Xi paid a visit to Moscow in March of this year,

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pretend-phase-cold-war-ii-over-206520 Page 2 of 11
The Pretend Phase of Cold War II Is Over | The National Interest 12/23/23, 10:19 PM

concluding his trip with a remarkable statement: “Right now there are changes
—the likes of which we haven't seen for 100 years—and we are the ones driving
these changes together.” The Russian president agreed. Russia, in short, has
made itself part of the China challenge.

The thought of living in a world dominated by China and Russia is intolerable

to Americans and all freedom-loving peoples. Like any war, a cold war is a
contest of will between determined, committed adversaries. It is high time that
the United States and its allies start fighting back. We thought long and hard
for the list of indicators that would demonstrate America was serious about
protecting its interest from the onslaught of aggressive forces that want to
remake the world. Here is what we came up with.

Say You are Serious

The Biden administration has never communicated clearly to the American

people and the world what we are up against. When it comes to China, Biden’s
mantra is weak tea a decade out of date: “compete where we must, but
cooperate where we can.” When it comes to Russia, Biden declares the United
States will “support Ukraine as long as it takes,” without giving thought to
explaining in detail what the plan to deal with Moscow as a threat in the long
term. This makes our adversaries sound more like a nuisance than a threat,
akin to saying that it’s not our business what Hannibal Lecter does next door, as
long as we don’t go over for dinner.

That does not cut it. China has 1.4 billion people, the second-largest economy in
the world by various measurements, and a nuclear arsenal that will soon rival
that of the United States and Russia. They already dominate many of the
world’s most critical supply chains. Beijing is a destabilizing influence on every

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pretend-phase-cold-war-ii-over-206520 Page 3 of 11
The Pretend Phase of Cold War II Is Over | The National Interest 12/23/23, 10:19 PM

continent. It is among the world’s worst dictatorial regimes, abusers of human

rights, and polluters. Russia is a nuclear peer, meddles in every theater where
the United States has vital and important interests, and has violated every norm
of responsible behavior. If we can’t label them the cold war adversaries they are
—we have lost before we begin.

Secure Your Own Territory

What nation leaves its borders wide open in times of cold war? This is madness.
Under Biden’s presidency millions of illegal aliens from all over the world are
pouring into the United States through our southern border. In 2022 alone, the
Customs and Border Patrol encountered almost 100 people on the terrorist
watchlist. Apprehensions of Chinese nationals, many of them men of military
age, crossing into the United States illegally are up over 800 percent over the
same period last fiscal year. Nobody checks their backgrounds and they are
released into the United States on their own recognizance with a court date to
be determined at some point in the future. Until America regains control over
its open southern border, no nation in the world will believe America is serious
about defending its interests.

Claim the Moral High Ground

America is in a contest with brutal dictatorships. The Biden administration

must stop describing its China policy as competition, confrontation, and
cooperation. This language implies an equivalence between the United States, a
democratic country that respects international law, and Xi’s China, a brutal
dictatorship that routinely violates key international norms, including through
its support for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pretend-phase-cold-war-ii-over-206520 Page 4 of 11
The Pretend Phase of Cold War II Is Over | The National Interest 12/23/23, 10:19 PM

The Biden administration should communicate more about America’s freedom

and achievements and less about its flaws. Some of the criticism of America’s
shortcomings undermines the legitimacy, cohesion, and confidence of the
American polity. It simply must be stopped.

Strengthen Deterrence

America cannot prevail unless we demonstrate the will to defend America’s

interests. That’s not done by being the world’s policeman, babysitter, or any
other metaphor. It is not about muscular actions like regime change or
supposed “nation-building.” Nor does the United States have any inherent
responsibility to protect some illusory world order. It is simply this: we must
have armed forces with the capacity to protect America’s vital interests and be
unafraid in our determination to safeguard them.

Grow and Protect the Economy

America can’t win without economic might. Too many Biden economic actions,
from energy policies to inflation and infrastructure, have made the economy
worse and ballooned our national debt. We must adopt policies that foster
economic growth at home, including unleashing American energy, tax cuts to
incentivize entrepreneurs, and targeted deregulation. Economic security is
national security.

We must expand the safeguards that prevent China from exploiting America’s
economy. We are efficient today at stopping Chinese companies that want to
invest in U.S. companies in national security-sensitive sectors. We must also
prevent U.S. investments in Chinese companies related in any way to the
military or repression establishments in the People’s Republic.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pretend-phase-cold-war-ii-over-206520 Page 5 of 11
The Pretend Phase of Cold War II Is Over | The National Interest 12/23/23, 10:19 PM

Challenge Allies to do a Lot More

Putin’s war in Ukraine served as a global wake-up call for America’s allies. For
instance, twenty countries in Europe are increasing their defense spending—but
the figures ultimately amount to only about one percent in real growth over last
year’s level.

The willingness to spend more on defense is not the long pole in the European
tent—the big challenges are inflation, energy costs, debt servicing, and weak
economies. There are serious fiscal structural challenges to Europe spending a
lot more on its own defense. This is a key point because it’s not just about
telling Europe to “defend yourself because the United States has to pivot to
Asia.” Post the Ukraine war, Europe now agrees that it must do more for its
own defense.

America’s task nowadays is to encourage Europe to overcome self-imposed

constraints on economic growth. This is particularly true regarding energy,
where the “green agenda” is hamstringing Europe—energy prices are so high
now that there are serious concerns that European companies will move to
countries with cheaper energy, resulting in the old continent deindustrializing.

Make the Case for a Freedom-Based Development Model

The unfortunate reality is that many developing countries have little interest in
joining one camp or the other on the basis of ideals such as freedom. Their
primary focus is on lifting the standard of living of their people. America must
be very clear that our free market economic system is superior to the Chinese
economic model controlled by the Chinese Communist Party and to the Russian
model controlled by the kleptocracy in the Kremlin.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pretend-phase-cold-war-ii-over-206520 Page 6 of 11
The Pretend Phase of Cold War II Is Over | The National Interest 12/23/23, 10:19 PM

Contra popular notions, the China-Russia model has less to offer. In 2021, the
United State’s GDP per capita was $63,670. In stark contrast, after seventy-four
years of Communist Party rule and twenty-three years of Putinism, Russia’s
level was $27,960. And after seventy-two years under the rule of the Chinese
Communist Party, China’s was only $16,997.

America ought to partner with developing countries to help them on the path of
prosperity, not write blank checks of foreign aid. Economic partnerships that
encourage foreign direct investment are the better answer for development.
Partnerships are the answer even on security matters: Active diplomacy,
encouraging foreign direct investment, security cooperation on strategic
projects, and building stronger bridges can do more than raw military force.

Check the Checklist

When Washington starts delivering policies that achieve the ends we have laid
out here, it will be a sign the United States is serious about winning the new
cold war. Until then, we are just a target.

Dan Negrea is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Freedom and
Prosperity Center. He served at the U.S. Department of State in leadership
positions in the Policy Planning Office and the Economic Bureau.

Dr. James Jay Carafano is a Heritage Foundation vice president, directing the
think tank’s research on issues of national security and foreign relations.

Image: Shutterstock.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pretend-phase-cold-war-ii-over-206520 Page 7 of 11
The Pretend Phase of Cold War II Is Over | The National Interest 12/23/23, 10:19 PM

Recommended for you Recommended by

Sponsored Sponsored Sponsored

Apple Recommends [Photos] Her Dress [Photos] Most

Blinkist, One Of The Was The Most Inappropriate Dress
Best Apps For… Inappropriate On Th… On Met Gala Red…
Intellectuals
Blinkist: Around
Best Books Summ… Red Carpet
Her Dress Was The Most Carpet 2023 Of Met Gala
The Combination
The
ies in World
15 Minutes | Sponsore Inappropriate On The Red… Dresses With Hollywood…
d
Carpet
One Daily | Sponsored Beauty Nation | Sponsored
Editors

Sponsored Sponsored Sponsored

[Photos] 27 Awkward [Pics] This Is How [Photos] Walmart

Photos That Are Hard Luxurious Greta Cameras Captured
to Forget Thunberg Lives These Hilarious 20…
27 Awkward Photos That Are This Is How Luxurious Greta Photos
Walmart Cameras Captured
Hard to Forget Thunberg Lives These Hilarious 20 Photos
The Super Mommy | Spons… Mighty Scoops | Sponsored Life Indigo | Sponsored
ed

Sponsored Sponsored Sponsored

[Photos] 20 of The 6 reasons why Incredible, the TV box

Most Awkward Beach hydrogen is a fuel of everyone is talking
Moments Ever… the future about: Access all…
Captured
20 of The Most Awkward Beach Hydrogen has been used by channels?
Smart TV | Sponsored
Moments Ever Captured humans for hundreds of years…
Psychic Monday | Sponsored for numerous |purposes.
MHISpectra SponsoredHere
are six reasons why hydrogen

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pretend-phase-cold-war-ii-over-206520 Page 8 of 11
The Pretend Phase of Cold War II Is Over | The National Interest 12/23/23, 10:19 PM

Sponsored Sponsored Sponsored

[Photos] 18+ Photos [Pics] Always Put a 2022 Credit Cards

of Teachers Who Plastic Bottle on Your That Don't Require a
Clearly Weren't… Tires when Parked,… Credit Check May…
Thinking
18+ Photos of Teachers Who Here's
Cleverst |Why
Sponsored Surprise You
Search ads | Sponsored
Clearly Weren't Thinking
Game of Glam | Sponsored

Sponsored Sponsored Sponsored

If you own a mouse, Tanza : The price of a Tanza: Unsold

you have to play this small two-seater Furniture Liquidation
game. No Install. Pl… hybrid car in 2022… 2023 (Prices May…
for free.
Panzer.Quest strategy gam… may be |surprising
Trending Search ads | Sp… SurpriseDeals
Furniture You)| Sponsored
| Sponsored sored

Sponsored Sponsored Sponsored

Bavaria is using the The secret to help you Tanza: Used Car
Earth as a giant sleep better every day Prices in 2022 May
battery manilanews | Sponsored Surprise You
Turboden is partnering with Trending | Search ads | Sp…
Eavor in Germany to use the… sored
heat of the Earth
MHISpectra as a giant
| Sponsored
battery. How does the
technology work and what role
…

Sponsored Sponsored Sponsored

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pretend-phase-cold-war-ii-over-206520 Page 9 of 11
The Pretend Phase of Cold War II Is Over | The National Interest 12/23/23, 10:19 PM

Sponsored Sponsored Sponsored

Scientists applaud Here are the best [Pics] 12 Foods You

discovery of hair smart beds on the Can Eat a Lot of
growth super… market - find great… Without Gaining…
compound
manilanews | Sponsored deals here
LifeStyleTrendsHQ | Spons… Weight
Journalistate | Sponsored
ed

Sponsored Sponsored Sponsored

The natural method of Tanza: Waste [Gallery] She Never

hair growth will Management Prices Married And Now We
surprise you (Take A Look) Know Why
manilanews | Sponsored Waste Management Mexico… DailySportX | Sponsored
Search Ads | Sponsored

Sponsored Sponsored Sponsored

Intensive moisturizing How car insurance These Automation

for people with atopic policies will change in Tools Might Surprise
dermatitis and eczema 2024 and how you w… You
payInsurance
thedailynewsph | Sponsored Car less | Sponsored Automation Tools | Search …
ds | Sponsored

Sponsored

Looking for More

Content? We May
Have What You Want
DiscoveryFeed | Sponsored

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pretend-phase-cold-war-ii-over-206520 Page 10 of 11
The Pretend Phase of Cold War II Is Over | The National Interest 12/23/23, 10:19 PM

© Copyright 2023 Center for the National Interest All Rights Reserved

By using this website, you agree to our use of cookies. This use includes personalization of content and ads,
and traffic analytics.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pretend-phase-cold-war-ii-over-206520 Page 11 of 11