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What is Context?
Defining Context is like trying to understand what a person says to you in
a foreign language that you don’t fully know, and so when you speak to
someone, sometimes you can’t understand everything 100% clear, but at the
same time you can spot clues, understand sentences partially, combine them
and have a better understanding based on the context of what’s being said to
you (tourist looking for a railway station).
Same way in the markets - we never know for sure where and how price
will go, but using instruments like SSC and Models (words and sentences of
the market), we can have a better idea of what can happen and than confirm
our ideas with tested entries.
So SSC and Models are like words and sentences of a language in which
market is communicating with us during this specific moment about the price,
where it was and how developed, and at the same time where it can go in the
future.
2.2 How the price reacts in the zone (+1 if not against
immediate impulse), is it showing signs of slowing down and moving to our
direction (cs, triple m, fractal MB etc.) or is it just falling quickly through the
zone with no signs of slowing down?
2.3 Optimal session for a pair.
2.4 Was there not too much movement during this specific day
already? (+1) Rhythm of the market.
2.5 Chain of SnD’s/Build up/Waves (+1) on ETF or MTF
2.6 Aware of the red news, not entering 15 min. before or after.
(+1)
2.7 HTF context should support MDT context, which should
support ETF context.
2.8 Is it clear to you personally (+1), based on what you know -
don't force.
2.9 Know your invalidation point, and it should be invalidation and
not the reason to look for trades in other direction.
2.10 Emotional check and balance (+1). Staying out is an
important skill to master.
Step 3 - Confirmation
Confirmation is basically fractal representation of Step 1 and Step 2, on
Entry timeframe. In it’s simple form it’s just an MB or DMB with a tap in the
zone (bigger or refined) + CS or Triple M. I’m using CS usually.
But because it’s a fractal Step 1-2, then you need to consider Models
presented on ETF and also quality of SSC.
Step 4 - Management
I go for b.e. discretionally based on price development (various ways of
managing are in the course), and then take full position at 2R (3, 5, 7RR for
this system is good as well, choose what suit your personality). I risk 0.25-0.5%
per trade.
With Quality levels concept you can know where the trade is good
before entering a trade.
For every trade, write out what could be better for it to level up to A or B+. Find
most joy in quality of execution, and not in P&L, cause quality is something you
control in the moment of entry and what allows you to feel good in the moment
of placing trade, and it allows you to feel not that bad even after a loser.
Learn to receive joy form following the system, as profit is not always a sign of
trading master, but the ability to consistently execute your best setups and the
crucial skill of staying out is probably a better indication.
At the end of each week or day, or as part of hindsight research, write out B+, A,
A+ setups, how many entries they gave, other notes, journal.
Follow basic rules and you will be fine. You’re here for just part of the move,
traders share the same pain, respect the pain
You’re not your latest trade, the next trade is the most important trade in the
world
A: Max Quality
B: Average Quality
1. Directional bias/ment sentiment, confluence of 2 relatively distant
timeframes, ie daily, 1h, 15m, 1m. Structure/snd’s should be clear.
2. Confluence between 1-15min., 5-60 etc. (real or clear inside\2.0 is also
possible)
3. True ETF dmb/remodel or clear inside structure\ici, aligned with ETF
model: for sideways\unclear in the zone (possible accumulation) of
5-15-60 - enter from DMB on ETF during highliq. session, so prove the
model on ETF.
4. If sideways/unclear in the zone of 5-15-60, only two entries with the first
shift on ETF (so it’s still more like remodel).
5. From the last zone, or from clear 2.0’s build up (ideally after mitigation
of MB or deeper zones), or before/during the break of 5-15-60-240 min.
highs after mitigation of the zone or MB.
6. If after the break on MDT, wait for clear
tightness\remod\sideways\pullback (at least 3 candles). Then trade as
usual on ETF, or if still inside the tightness - clear ranges and context,
ideally after the break of 1h tightness on 5-15 min.
ONLY 3 entries inside the tightness for B, during high liq session.
7. Max 7 breaks on ETF (1-5m.) and MTD (15-60), and ideally we’ll have
3-5th as a cluster. If 8, wait for reac + new break or clear 2.0\inside
structure.
8. 2h before London-2h before NY close, lunch time (12-14) London. Not
on bank holidays. Wait 5 min. before and after red news, mindset is
more or less neutral, entry is not very emotional. Most likely, I would
not take this setup if I knew it will be a loser. This setup can feel a bit
awkward. It’s like something is missing. It may even look ok, but then
we feel want it to be a bit better. It may feel like you want to force the
market to go your way, but not really.
What usually lacks for A or B+: messy MDT/ETF, not aligned with
model (often against remod), too early attempts from the zone, when it’s
wicky accumulation, or too late when the move is over, not optimal
sessions, not clear looking patterns, too early entries after the break,
against 5-15-60 min, especially against 15 min.
The price is not only it’s recent break, but it’s acc and dis of orders.
Acc is relatively wicky back and forth for some time + bullish, mainly in bullish
SSC, also it’s when current ranges are wicked back and forth for absorption, so
PA is not clean and not actually holding yet, which is another form of strong to
weak hands transfer.
One of the differences between acc and reac is clarity, rangyness, number of
back and forth and how horizontal they are (for example, reacumulation is
much more one sided compared to acc), imbalances (acc is more wicky and
doesn’t live many imbalances), and overall reac is better holding of structure.
Depending on the area of the chart you choose to look at + the last move you can
be in different models at the same time. Experience and market observation will
help to read models better and adequately. Look at confluence between different
portions of the price action + recent SSC’s to understand it better.
Sometimes several reac cycles + bearish shift could indicate dis, cause we had
back and forth and now bearish break.
It’s important where mod develops (in fact it happens everywhere all
the time so we should be picky), so it should be all connected with SSC.
We expect mod around zone from HTF SSC, which will show that the
model is holding and delivering, and money stepped in.
Smart money get involved on initial SSC, and markups are easy for usual traders
to enter in.
Simply, we can see it as Stage 1 which is Accumulation or Potential Reac., and
then Stage 2 which is classical mark up, that could last for 2-5 MB’s usually
before reac. and then new continuation
To confirm reac you can observe 2.0 that started to deliver after reac, so no need
for full confirmation.
Mods can develop in many ways, and should be confirmed with other Models
and SSC on other TF (and relation between their quality).
For example, redis on some TF could be developed within “bad, weak, mitigated
or irrelevant at that time” demand zone from HTF
Mods must be analysed together with SSC, in this way when a possible redis is
happening in a bullish SSC, than maybe it makes sense to see bigger picture and
see it as a reac with a bigger box drawn, or just WAIT for clear acc\reac from
that SSC, or the failing of that bullish SSC.
THE BLUEPRINT is even wider view of models, and if it’s clear, I use
it to support overall context:
Stage 1: Back and Forth (wicky/accumulation), ideally in some HTF zone or
inside the contextual HTF range, some bullish PA (initial SSC, usually of
average quality), Back and Forth again, like one more accumulation with a high
chance of a break below initial SSC/HTF ABSORPTION/accumulation,
Transition: Clusters Up (more clear SSC’s, already possible for entries), A bit
back (reac\ICI’s)
Stage 2: Again Clusters of SSC, or usually SSC/ICI, Prolonged trend, with clear
SSC and ICI after reac’s usually.
Blueprint shows that the money supporting the move
So if there was no model with the change but just huge move it says that no
really big money was involved, because they usually can’t be involved in 1 move
only.
What it gives us is understanding that Classical SSC are good for some times in
the market, but when the market is really trending than it’s better to use other
entries like EMA’s or go to LTF, or ICI’s, understanding that now we will move
more likely in REAC’s much more and price will likely not reach the deep
zones during the trend.
If you missed first entries on SSC, and realise you’re now in trending market,
you’re either enter on Larger zones mitigations, or LTF SSC.
And also it’s best to stay out during initial Back and Forth, especially on ETF,
and sometimes MTF as well.
How to test
First, I’d recommend finding examples of the system in full hindsight
(20 should be ok), then test knowing the trend (half-hindsight, 50-100 trades)
and/or with simplified rules, like having less confluence etc., and then do a full
backtest (200 or more).
As a way of testing, I would recommend doing daily or weekly market
reviews, and find latest example of good entries and learn from them.
Before starting testing it, I highly recommend to see ALL content in the
Mentfx course.
Journal backtested trades, with screenshots.