SPE-214896-MS

Real-Time Performance Optimization Using Temperature Derived Rates to

Prevent Productivity Decline

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Bulent Izgec, Hess, Houston, Texas, USA

Copyright 2023, Society of Petroleum Engineers DOI 10.2118/214896-MS

This paper was prepared for presentation at the 2023 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition held in San Antonio, Texas, USA, 16 - 18 October 2023.

This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE program committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents
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Abstract
This work presents a well performance analysis technique that identifies formation damage and/ or
productivity loss real-time using rates derived from measured well temperatures. It also provides insights
into expected damage mechanisms enabling efficient stimulation treatments.
The analytical technique recognizes damage patterns at inception. The diagnostics to drive operational
decisions are then presented as simple cartesian plots that grant easy access to users of all levels
of experience. Data driven temperature-to-rate models provide continuous conversion of flowing well
temperatures to production rates that help automate diagnostics for optimum daily surveillance.
Case studies from several deepwater wells demonstrate how the technique has been successfully
operationalized to eliminate productivity losses, gain early insight into damage mechanisms, and investigate
the impact of well interventions. Evaluations and comparisons using pressure transient analysis (PTA), rate
transient analysis (RTA) and numerical history matching studies conducted with and without temperature
derived rates corroborate the robustness of the method. Temperature derived rates exhibit less than 3 %
error when compared to well tests, multi-phase, and ultrasonic flow meters.
Shutting in the wells is not required for the analysis, therefore lost production and additional stress cycles
on the completion are eliminated. The analysis identifies the maximum drawdown limit, thereby helping the
operator optimize well performance real-time. In addition, a data driven approach is outlined for estimating
PTA equivalent skin values without shutting-in the wells. Data driven temperature-to-rate models can be
developed and maintained with little effort to improve rate allocations, cut back on metering costs, and
reduce operational complexities associated with increased number of tests.

Introduction
It is not uncommon for wells targeting deep water to experience productivity declines within the first few
years of production. An optimized drilling and completion program followed by an effective ramp-up and
drawdown management strategy can minimize and/or delay such production declines.
Drilling program optimization may include well trajectory alignment with maximum horizontal stress,
selection of acid-soluble stress cage materials and considerations involving underbalanced or overbalanced
perforating accompanied by proper perforating gun selection.
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Completion program-related optimization may include vertical and/or near vertical entry to the producing
formation and an efficient completion type selection based on rock strength/competency and acid treatment
requirement.
An effective ramp-up and drawdown management strategy, on the other hand, would include ramping
the well up to its maximum drawdown target in a surveillance data and analysis driven manner. Because
each well/completion is different, individual ramp-up and drawdown strategies are required based on the
completion quality and reservoir architecture.

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Initial assessment of the completion (e.g., frac pack) quality is mostly driven by post-job analysis and can
be further understood by focusing on certain parameters such as well trajectory alignment with maximum
stress, downhole friction, net pressure achieved during pumping, tip screen-out achievement, and the health
of the annular pack. These parameters are essential for low initial skin and low rates of skin increase over
time.
Post-production completion health assessment and reservoir characterization are mainly assessed with
pressure transient analysis (PTA). Conclusions from PTA can further be supported by a flux study and/or
numerical simulations with completion details such as frac/annular pack and perforation assumptions to
justify any production curtailment due to the development of damage. Although pressure transient analysis
is capable of capturing productivity decline under most scenarios, PTAs are generally limited in frequency
due to associated production losses, and they introduce additional stress cycles on the completion through
hard shut-ins.
This work outlines a real-time well performance analysis technique that identifies the initiation and
progression of formation damage and/or productivity loss without the need to shut in wells.

Real-Time Drawdown Management Tool (RTDDMT)

The new technique is an adaptation of the method originally developed for injector well performance
evaluations to identify fracturing, plugging and out of zone injection (Izgec and Kabir 2009; Izgec and Kabir
2011; Izgec and Yoshioka 2008).
For producer well applications – as defined in above-mentioned paper – the pseudo steady state (PSS)
integral and its derivative function with respect to time are plotted against time, as shown in Fig. 1 (Izgec
and Kalfayan 2022).

Figure 1—Real-time drawdown management tool diagnostic plot

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The derivative riding on top of the PSS integral is indicative of a healthy well whereas upward separation
of the derivative from the integral points to evolution of damage. Pressure/rate data are the only requirements
for generating integral and derivative signatures.
The real-time drawdown management tool (RTDDMT) diagnostic plot can be automated with high
frequency data during initial ramp-ups before reaching a maximum, safe drawdown. After that, daily data
provides optimum surveillance without shutting in the wells. It can work with measured production rates
or rates calculated from temperature response at any gauge located along the wellbore.

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Rate Estimation from Measured Temperature Data
Fig. 2 shows the measured production rate and gauge temperature response during a multi-rate test for an
offshore gas well (Izgec and Kabir 2010; Izgec and Hasan 2007; Izgec and Cribbs 2009). At each successive
larger choke opening the production rate of the well increases, accordingly the corresponding temperature
response at the gauge stabilizes at a higher value. Gauge temperature falls back closer to the ambient value
during shut-ins depending on the duration of each particular shut-in.

Figure 2—Production rate and corresponding temperature response at the gauge for an offshore gas well

The information presented above can be used to establish a relationship between production rates and
corresponding gauge temperatures. Fig. 3 plots the production rates and corresponding highest stabilized
gauge temperatures during a ramp-up. Shut-in temperature values are omitted. The x-axis plots the measured
gauge temperature, or it can also utilize the temperature difference between the wellhead (WHT) and the
bottomhole (BHT) gauge for each corresponding production rate. Depending on the well, completion and/
or fluid type this relationship can be linear, polynomial, or exponential. Once this relationship is identified
it can be used to calculate production rates continuously from measured temperature response. Simulated
examples in the next section provides further details.
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Figure 3—Conceptual functional relationships for establishing the
link between rate and temperature response during production

Simulated Examples
A history matched wellbore model of a deep offshore well is utilized to generate temperature profiles using
production rates up to 14,000 stb/D with increasing water cuts from 0 % to 60 %. The PVT, VLP and IPR
sections of the steady-state wellbore model are fine-tuned to the field data. The production rate-temperature
relationships can be developed by plotting each rate and corresponding gauge temperature value as shown
in Fig.4 and Fig. 5.

Figure 4—Production rate and wellhead temperature relationships for increasing water cuts
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Figure 5—Production rate and wellhead-downhole temperature difference relationships for increasing water cuts

Fig.6 demonstrates the predictive capability of the rate-temperature relationships developed.

Comparisons of input production rates to the wellbore model and rate-temperature model estimated
production rates are given in Fig. 6 for the entire range of water cuts studied.

Figure 6—Production rates estimated from temperature models vs. input rates into the wellbore model

Fig.7 provides the comparison of flow meter reported and temperature-to-rate model estimated
production rates over time. The rest of the case studies in this work only involve wells equipped with
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virtual flow meters and/ or rely on allocated rates. Virtual flow meters can be defined as detailed integrated
production models honoring pressures and temperatures along the system for production rate predictions.

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Figure 7—Flow meter and temperature derived production rate comparison for an offshore well

Case Study 1
The first case study is a lookback at a well that was not managed with the RTDDMT during production.
However, the investigation helped to gain insights into the methodology and fine-tune the overall approach.
This well was drilled into a high permeability Miocene reservoir and completed with a frac pack with
limited deviation from vertical. The trajectory of the well was adjusted to align with the maximum horizontal
stress direction to achieve better fracture-to-wellbore connectivity and limit the number of unpacked
perforations. However, because of the near well boundaries and changing stress regimes closer to these
boundaries, stress alignment was problematic.
Fig. 8 depicts two possible scenarios; first, where fracture-to-wellbore connectivity is good with all
perforations packed (A) and second, where fracture to wellbore connection is problematic with a limited
number of packed perforations (B). Unpacked perforations are expected to collapse as borehole depletion
(depletion + drawdown) increases. Based on the uncertainty in stress direction around near well boundaries,
this well was expected to have some unpacked perforations.

Figure 8—Optimal and suboptimal fracture to wellbore connectivity

Measured downhole friction during the frac pack operation was 200 psi. Greater downhole friction values
would have indicated fracture-to-wellbore connectivity issues and near-wellbore complexities. Some of
these issues can be classified as near-wellbore tortuosity, complex fracture configurations, rather than a
SPE-214896-MS 7

single clean planar fracture, which again may result in some unpacked perforations. Also, a tip screenout was
not achieved during the fracturing operation, and a very low net pressure of 50 psi was reported. Absence
of a tip screenout with a net pressure value lower than 200 psi pointed to a lack of sufficient fracture width
and conductivity that would not have withstood the increasing borehole depletion during production.
As shown in Fig. 9 and Fig. 10, the first signs of productivity decline surface just after the well reached
5,000 psi borehole depletion. As suggested in the literature and by experience, most deepwater wells
approaching this level of borehole depletion start exhibiting signs of productivity decline.

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Figure 9—RTDDMT diagnostic plot showing productivity decline and stimulation impact

Figure 10—Total pressure drop at the well; depletion + drawdown

Directionally, the changes in skin, both from damage and after stimulation, are very well captured by the
RTDDMT; first through upward separation of the derivative from the integral, and next through downward
movement of the derivative toward the integral.
A byproduct of this analytical technique is the near wellbore flow resistance term presented below in Fig.
11. This term is analogous to the PTA-estimated skin, but it is a lumped parameter accounting for all the
near well resistances to flow, dynamic in nature and can be estimated continuously without shutting in the
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well with superposition equation (Izgec and Kabir 2010). For this well in less than one year, PTA-estimated
skin increased from −1 to ~80. As seen in Fig. 11, the near wellbore flow resistance term closely tracks the
PTA-estimated skin values calculated from shut-ins.

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Figure 11—Near wellbore flow resistance term vs. PTA derived skin frombuild-ups

Because PTA derived skin and the flow resistance term exhibit the same trend but at a different scale a
simple relationship between them can be established like the rate-temperature workflow presented earlier.
Fig. 12 shows the linear relationship between PTA skin and the flow resistance term. Going forward
this linear relationship can be used to generate PTA equivalent skin values continuously from the near
wellbore flow resistance term without shutting-in the wells. Regardless, for full reservoir characterization
and establishing this relationship some PTAs are required initially.

Figure 12—Near wellbore flow resistance term vs. PTA derived skin relationships

Fig. 13 shows the comparisons of the near wellbore flow resistance term, PTA derived skin values from
the shut-in analysis and PTA equivalent skins estimated from RTDDMT (generated daily), for both pre and
post stimulation periods. For certain cases seperate flow resistance and PTA skin relationships may need
to be developed for pre/ post stimulation periods as the rate of skin increase may change depending on the
damage mechanism.
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Figure 13—Near wellbore flow resistance term and continuous PTA skin from RTDDMT without shut-ins

This well was stimulated with a hydrofluoric (HF) acid procedure to remove fines believed to be
restricting very near-wellbore flow and partially plugging the screen in the sand control completion.
The stimulation treatment was impactful but gains in productivity were short-lived due to the nature of
the dominant damage mechanisms highlighted earlier as perforation collapse and fracture conductivity loss,
combined with minimal fracture width. Driven by rapid drawdowns, fines migration was also an expected,
significant damage contributor.

Case Study 2
This deepwater well produces from two high permeability zones containing different fluid types separated
by a shale layer. Lower zone is identified as an oil-bearing formation whereas the upper formation contains
gas. Each zone was completed with its own frac pack and isolated by an intelligent completion that can
be operated by an ROV.
The trajectory of the well is not aligned with the maximum horizontal stress leading to poor wellbore-
to-fracture connectivity for both zones. Downhole friction values for both zones were measured to be more
than 1,000 psi, pointing to near wellbore complexities, tortuosity and/or multiple non-planar fractures with
unpacked perforations. Net pressures were quantified as 178 psi and 206 psi for the two zones, indicating
low fracture width and conductivity for both zones that will get challenged by high pressure drops in the
near wellbore area as depletion progresses. Tip screenout was achieved for both zones, together with an
intact and undamaged proppant pack. Accordingly, dominant expected damage mechanisms were believed
to be perforation collapse and fracture conductivity loss with fines migration as an additional, but lesser,
contributor with the possibility of an unconsolidated formation.
Fig. 14 shows two separate temperature-to-rate models developed from limited number of well tests. The
first one is valid for production rates with less than 5 % water cut. Second correlation is valid for generating
liquid rates up to 25 % water cut. As was shown initially with the simulated cases, elevated water cuts shift
the rate-temperature relationship downward. At elevated water cuts new rate-temperature relationships are
required due to high heat capacity of the produced water.
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Figure 14—Production rate models for two different water cut ranges

The comparison between the well test measured and temperature derived rates are provided in Fig. 15.

Figure 15—Comparison of well test reported and temperature model derived production rates

Fig. 16 shows the RTDDMT diagnostic plot. Signs of damage emerge earlier in the life of the well.
The integral slope increase may be interpreted as kh loss driven by unpacked perforation collapse and/ or
fracture conductivity loss.

Figure 16—RTDDMT diagnostic plot showing productivity decline and stimulation impact

The acid stimulation is designed to target fines plugging the near wellbore area. As shown by RTDDMT
the impact of stimulation is limited. The PTA derived skin and the near wellbore flow resistance term trends
SPE-214896-MS 11

are given in Fig. 17. The relationship between the two can best be captured by two separate exponential
equations pointing to different rates of skin growth during pre/ post stimulation periods.

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Figure 17—Near wellbore flow resistance term vs. PTA derived skin

Fig. 18 shows the daily skin estimates from the near wellbore flow resistance term along with PTA derived
skins from shut-ins. The last skin improvement is not due to stimulation but driven by a short duration cross
flow between layers during intelligent completion shift.

Figure 18—Near wellbore flow resistance term vs. PTA derived skin

Case Study 3
This well was drilled in 4,000 ft of water and completed with a frac pack in a high permeability zone. Near
vertical entry to the producing formation and trajectory alignment with maximum horizontal stress ensured
good fracture to wellbore connectivity.
A low downhole friction number of 150 psi was measured during the frac pack operation, pointing to
limited or no near-wellbore complexities, with most, if not all, perforations effectively packed. Net pressure
of ~ 650 psi together with achievement of a tip screenout also suggested that good fracture width and
conductivity were achieved, and which would withstand high pressure drops. Also, an intact and undamaged
annular pack with no voids was reported.
Accordingly, the well is thought to be more like scenario A than scenario B in Fig. 8 and the expected
damage mechanism was identified as fines migration.
Fig. 19 shows two distinctive types of temperature-to-rate models for limited number of tests acquired
during the life of the well.
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Figure 19—Rate-temperature relationships with two different methods

Production rate comparions between well test rates and temperature-to-rate model derived rates are given
in Fig. 20 for two methods.

Figure 20—Comparison of well test reported and temperature derived production rates

Similar to the previous case example, the well started showing signs of productivity loss around borehole
depletion of 4,500 psi. Upward separation of the derivative from the integral in the RTDDMT plot as shown
in Fig. 21 indicates the initations of the damage periods.

Figure 21—RTDDMT showing damage and multiple stimulation

SPE-214896-MS 13

The most severe decline in productivity was experienced prior to the third stimulation as supported by
the near-wellbore flow resistance term in Fig. 22. The damage was mainly driven by the lack of pressure
support from the injector. The injector well had to be shut down for 2 months due to injection water quality
issues to prevent reservoir souring and scaling (Izgec 2023).

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Figure 22—Near wellbore flow resistance term showing damage and stimulation

Unlike the Case Study 1 example, the slope of the PSS integral remains constant throughout the history
of the well. Because the slope of the PSS integral is correlated with the kh of the formation, this observation
further supports the absence of perforation collapse and/or fracture conductivity loss as leading damage
mechanisms.
This well has been successfully stimulated four times. The impact of each treatment on well productivity
can clearly be identified with derivatives returning to the integral. During the third treatment, a 4-fold
increase in productivity index was achieved.
The first stimulation design was very similar to that of Case Study 1, given the same challenge associated
with the riser containing a Ti TSJ, as well as a long treatment interval of over 180 feet in this case.
The two subsequent stimulation treatments of this well, both successful, have additionally included
solvent stages, due to the increasing onset of asphaltene deposition, which was not evident prior to the first
stimulation treatment. Also, different acid preflush and HF acid formulations and strengths have been used,
each time with greater success, but all limiting total acid strength and spent acid flowback pH. Additionally,
nitrogen foam diverter was replaced with a viscoelastic surfactant gel, which has proven to be more effective.
With a more effective frac pack completion in place in this well, and with subsequent post-stimulation
ramp-up and drawdown management driven by surveillance and application of the RTDDMT, this well
has experienced slower skin increases over time. However, the well will still require periodic remedial
stimulation treatments. Fines migration has been largely mitigated relative to early days (high drawdowns)
but continuing asphaltene deposition can only be slowed, not eliminated entirely.
Currently, the well is producing at a water cut of about 65 %. During the shut-ins, water starts falling
to the bottom of the well due to fluid density differences in the tubing. As the falling water passes through
the gauge it distorts the PTA derivative response. Because it is nearly impossible to identify the infinite
acting radial flow region, skin estimate updates cannot be made. Accordingly, the well health can only be
monitored with the RTDDMT.

Case Study 4
This deepwater well produces from two high permeability zones separated by a shale layer. Each zone was
completed with its own frac pack. Reservoir architecture can be defined as a narrow channel-like system.
14 SPE-214896-MS

The trajectory of the well is not aligned with the maximum horizontal stress due to complicated reservoir
architecture leading to poor wellbore-to-fracture connectivity for both zones. Downhole friction values
for both zones were measured to be about 300 psi, pointing to near well complexities, tortuosity and/or
multiple non-planar fractures with unpacked perforations. Net pressures were quantified as 640 psi and
360 psi for the two zones, indicating reasonable fracture width and conductivity for both zones, but with
the latter being of lesser quality. A tip screenout was also achieved for both zones, together with an intact
and undamaged proppant pack. Accordingly, dominant expected damage mechanisms were believed to

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be perforation collapse and fracture conductivity loss with fines migration as an additional, but lesser,
contributor.
The well has been exposed to very high drawdowns over a short period of time, as shown in Fig. 23.
However, unlike the first two case studies, no immediate decline in well productivity was observed.

Figure 23—Borehole depletion for case study 3

One possible explanation for the delayed productivity loss is the added protection from high pressure
drops occurring near the wellbore due to reservoir architecture. Fig. 24 shows the increase in effective stress
around perforations for a cased and perforated completion and two frac pack completions during production.
Simulated cases with no nearby boundaries showed higher levels of effective stress around the completion
compared to those with boundaries.
Another way of explaining the delay in skin increase is through the sandface drawdown concept.
Generally, sandface drawdowns are good indicators of expected productivity losses and they can be
estimated using one hour shut-in pressures (P1 hr). In the Gulf of Mexico, it is common for wells exceeding
the sandface drawdown limit of 1,500 psi begin showing signs of productivity decline.
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Figure 24—Effective stress around frac pack and perforations during production

Fig. 25 shows increasing near wellbore flow resistance later in the life of the well. The initial, relatively
constant skin/flow resistance period corresponds to the time frame in which P1 hr drawdowns were kept at
or below 1,500 psi. On the other hand, the damage signature corresponds to a P1 hr drawdown of 2,000 psi.

Figure 25—Near wellbore flow resistance term comparison with sandface drawdowns and proppant closure stress

Another important item to note is P1 hr drawdown trends are very well correlated with the proppant
closure stress trends as shown below. This relationship highlights the connection between sandface
drawdowns (P1 hr) and damage mechanisms seen in frac packs.
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The RTDDMT plot in Fig. 26 identifies damage signatures with upward separation of the derivative from
the integral, followed by the impact of stimulation, where the derivative falls back onto the integral.

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Figure 26—RTDDMT showing damage and stimulation

Again, the design had to take the Ti TSJ in the riser into account. This was an especially challenging
treatment, given the dual interval, totaling over 300 feet in length, and high deviation angle, both of
which limit treatment coverage effectiveness, even with chemical diversion. Also, the combination of fines
migration and asphaltenes as damage contributors made for a more challenging case.

Figure 27—Near wellbore flow resistance term

Nevertheless, the second treatment was successful. However, the well did not return to the pre-stimulation
production rate level, which is not unusual. But this pointed to the likelihood of perforation collapse and
fracture conductivity loss as additional contributors to damage. Both of these mechanisms are essentially
irreversible.
SPE-214896-MS 17

Case Study 5
The last case study demonstrates how multiple approaches can be integrated for a root cause analysis. The
well under investigation in this case is a deep offshore well completed with frac packs in two separate zones
with intelligent completions and an in-well gas lift. The two producing zones are about 2,000 feet apart
with a thick shale layer in between. Because of the operational complexities and a nearby fault, deeper zone
trajectory was not aligned with the maximum horizontal stress at the formation level. Also, in the lower
zone the frac pack was completed with very high downhole friction and low net pressure, suggesting near-

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wellbore complexities and unpacked perforations.
Effective stress was quite high due to the extreme depths reaching 30,000 ft. Therefore, unpacked
perforations were expected to collapse earlier in the life of the well. The drawdowns on this well reached
high levels quickly because of flow assurance issues driven by the low wellhead temperatures.
Initially, the well was able to produce on its own however, later in the life of the field with further
pressure depletion it required artificial lift to be able to flow to the mudline. Fig. 28 shows the liquid rate
and temperature relationship for limited number of tests acquired after the initiation of gas lift.

Figure 28—Rate-temperature relationship during the artificial lift phase

Production rate comparisons between the well tests, virtual flow meter estimates and temperature derived
rates are given in Fig. 29. The slight increase in production rate is supported by an additional 110 F cooling
at the gauge which is in synch with the elevated levels of gas lift gas injection rate.

Figure 29—Production rate comparisons from well tests, virtual flow meter and temperature models
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The first signs of damage were captured by the RTDDMT through upward separation of the derivative
from the integral, as seen in Fig. 30. The missing section in the middle is due to an extended facility
shutdown.

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Figure 30—RTDDMT showing damage

Fig. 31 provides comparisons of the PTA derivatives from the first and last shut-ins on this well. The
increasing separation between derivative responses also revealed that skin had been increasing. Further
investigation through flux models coupled with PTA-estimated skins suggested that limited number of
perforations were contributing to the flow.

Figure 31—PTA derivative responses

Localized high velocity flow through a small number of perforations may erode the screen, causing
proppant flow into the intelligent completion. The possibility of this scenario was investigated with a full-
field numerical simulation model that accounts for the frac pack, annular pack, and the perforations, as
shown in Fig. 32.
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Figure 32—Simulation model coupled with finite element fracture representation

A multistep history matching procedure was used to evaluate the completion performance. The initial
stage utilized fracture dimensions and conductivity values obtained from post-job analysis. During the
second stage, PTA-derived skin along with fracture dimension and conductivity estimates helped to improve
the history match. In the last stage, annular pack and perforation models were utilized to account for the
additional pressure drop due to damage. From earlier analysis, it was known that the annular pack was
undamaged and intact. Fig. 33 shows the final history match obtained with sensitivities on the number of
perforations open to flow.

Figure 33—Final history match from numerical simulation model

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The final history-matched numerical model with frac pack, annular pack, and perforations supported the
notion of flow through only a limited number of perforations. Due to rising concerns over proppant flowing
into the intelligent completion and potentially damaging the entire well, it was decided to defer production
from this zone until the upper zone is fully depleted.

Remarks
1. A real-time well performance analysis technique that identifies the initiation and progression of

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formation damage using temperature derived production rates has been developed and automated.
2. The technique has been successfully operationalized to assess the PTA equivalent skin development
without the need for well shut-ins.
3. The method can be used to regularly monitor the health of a well and to proactively stimulate a well
to optimally remove formation damage.

Acknowledgements
The author would like to thank Hess Corporation for permission to publish this work. Also, thankful to the
GoM Production Engineering team members for their valuable contributions over the years.

References
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