Simple Probability Mark Scheme

0 1
1
2
1(a) [1] Correct position of cross

0 1
1
1(b)
2 [1] Very close too or on 0

0 1
1
1(c) 2 [1] Correct position of cross

0 1
1
1(d) 2 [1] Correct position of cross

0 1
1
2(a) 2 [1] Correct position of cross

0 1
1
2(b) 2 [1] Correct position of cross

0 1
1
2(c) 2 [1] Correct position of cross

Turn over ►
 1
3(a) [1]
6

3 1 [1] Mark awarded regardless of cancelling

3(b) =
6 2 down

[1] Accept it could have happened by

3(c) The dice is likely biased as would expect 100 sixes
chance

Colour Blue Red Green 1 1

4(a) [1] Probability for red 1– –
3 6
1 1 1
Probability
3 2 6

1
4(b) 180 × = 60 [1]
3

4(c) Outcome due to chance [1]

𝑃 𝐻, 𝑇, 𝐻 = 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.125

5 [1] Calculation of the event probabilities
𝑃 𝑇, 𝑇, 𝑇 = 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.125

Ben is incorrect, the likelihood of both events is equal. [1] Statement of why ben is incorrect

Sonya is most likely to be the closest to the true

[1] Comment must be linked to number of
6 probability because she did the most trials (120),
repeats / sample size.
compared to Clive and Lucy (30 and 60, respectively).

END