Review of literature

The review of literature provides the reference knowledge to the research work which helps to
conduct research project in a better way. It provides a guideline to the research worker to plan
and accomplish research studies in the light of conclusions drawn from the previous work. It also
checks the un-necessary repetition of the work. In this section, the literature relevant to the
present study investigation is reviewed.
2.1 Climate change and its impact on fruit production
The concentration of Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere boosts up the climate change.
Frequency and severity of extreme weather events (EWEs) has recently been increased in many
regions of the world. These EWEs particularly affect agricultural production through disruptions
to the entire agricultural supply chain (Haque et al., 2020). Agricultural yields are adversely
being affected by climate change throughout the world. Almost every region of the world is
facing the impacts of climate change. Some of the major variables boosting this change are
temperature, precipitation, and the carbon emissions in the atmosphere (Chandio et al., 2022).
Agriculture mainly relies on the environmental factors such as rainfall and temperature and thus
bears direct impact of climate change. If the climate change is not properly tackled (through
mitigation and adaptation), it will have adverse impact on agricultural production and eventually
will lead to a food insecure world (Raza et al., 2019). As in many regions of the world, food
security is being witnessed. Agriculture not only provides us the outputs for income generation
but the most importantly it provides us the basic nutritional food required for the survival of
mankind on earth (Boye & Arcand, 2013).
Horticulture is one of the major sectors within agriculture which provides some essential
nutritional fruits and vegetables which are needed for a healthier diet. Impact of climate change
is also being witnessed on the horticultural yields throughout the world(Eigenbrod & Gruda,
2015). Many researchers have found that fruit production has declined in recent decades due to
various climatic factors such as lack of rainfall, rising temperature trends, extreme weather
events (Porta et al., 2008). This impact of climate change has been witnessed on pineapple,
mango, apple, grapes, pomegranate, peach, orange, lychee (Nath et al., 2019).
The impacts were measured on different scales from the production of fruits to the size and
quality of it. Moreover, these studies are not only limited to only one region, but impacts are
measured from tropic, sub tropic, to temperate regions. More precisely, from the alpine regions
of the north to the hot regions in the south (Caminade et al., 2019). However, studies are also
conducted showing a positive and significant relation of adapting to climate change and getting
higher yields than who are not adapting to it. Many studies concluded that adaptive measures
taken timely can save the yields from adverse impacts of climate change.
2.2 Meteorological data
Global warming creates challenges for the survival of human beings on earth by gradually
evolving climate change and environmental pollution (Zandalinas et al., 2021). With the
combustion of fossil fuels, greenhouse gas (GHG), which increases the air pollution in
environment. They recommended that the CO2 emission and climatic effects on major
agricultural crop production and land use in Pakistan and operated through the unit root tests the
stationary data from annual data (Khan et al., 2021). A generalized method of moments with two
stages least squares technique was applied to expose the agricultural variables, association with
CO2 emission having positive coefficients with probability values. While some variables
uncovered an adverse linkage of CO2 discharge in Pakistan (Rehman et al., 2021).
Climate change is a global threat to the food and nutritional security of the world. As greenhouse
gas emissions in the atmosphere are increasing (Malhi et al., 2021). The average global
temperature is increasing continuously and is predicted to rise, which would cause substantial
economic losses at the global level ). The concentration of CO2, which accounts for a major
proportion of greenhouse gases, and has led to higher growth and plant productivity due to
increased photosynthesis, but increased temperature offsets this effect as it leads to increased
crop respiration rate evapotranspiration, higher pest infestation, a shift in weed flora, and reduced
crop duration (Malhi et al., 2021). Climate change also affects the microbial population and their
enzymatic activities in soil, and effect on physiological and metabolic action of plants, its
potential and reported implications for growth and plant yield, pest infestation, and mitigation
strategies and their economic impact (Varanasi et al., 2016).
2.3 Use of different approaches or models for prediction and forecasting
Forecasting plays a major role in tourism planning. The promotion of tourism projects involving
substantial sums of money requires an estimate of future demand and market penetration. The
commitment to developing tourism would be much easier if it were possible to analyses current
and past tourist traffic and predict the nature of changes in tourism demand to forecast based on
historical data. Their study recommended the three time series forecasting techniques, namely
univariate ARIMA, Elmas’s Model of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Neural Network
(Cho, 2003).
The effects of climate change on the dust phenomenon were simulated by using an
ANN until 2050. Hourly particulate matter concentrations and daily metrological data were
analyzed from 2007 to 2018 and 1988 to 2018, respectively, in Zanjan city. The outputs of
HadGM2-ES (Hadley Centre Global Enviornomental Model, version 2- Earth System) model of
atmospheric circulation were used to generate future climatic patterns under two scenarios of
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The long Ashton Research Station
Weather Generator (LARS-WG 6.0) software was utilized for statistical down- scaling and
production of climate related dataset in artificial high resolution time series (Moghanlo et al.,
2021). The observed climatic variables, including maximum and minimum temperature and
precipitation, were determine as predictors in the artificial neural network. The highest surge of
PM10 levels was in May and July, and the lowest increase of PM10 was observed in December
with a monthly average of 84.85 and 50.54 μg/m3, respectively. The highest amount of PM10
was estimated for the year 2043, with a concentration of 74.26 μg/m3. Minimum and maximum
temperature and wind speed had a significant relationship with PM10 concentration; further, this
pollutant level increased by boosting each atmospheric variable. The minimum and maximum
temperatures in both scenarios were rising till 2050, and the highest temperature growth was
obtained under the worst situation of RCP (Paschalidou et al., 2011).
Climatic factors that have direct influence on agricultural productivity are rise intemperature,
heavy rainfall, precipitation, floods, and drought etc. To evaluate the climate change, three
climatic variables (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature) and three nonclimatic
variables (technology, fertilizer, area) had been used for analysis (Rashid et al., 2020).
ARDL bound testing econometric approach was employed to gauge the empirical estimates.
The outcomes of cointegration shows that all climate variables (rainfall and maximum
temperature) have statistically substantial positive and negative effects on cotton productivity in
Pakistan. Moreover, both fertilizer and area have positive impact on cotton production. In long
run co-integrating relationship holds among climate change requires strategies focusing on the
adaptation of climate resistant cultivars (Gul et al., 2022). The effect of climate change,
measured rainfall, temperature, and CO2, on crop production by using data spanning from 1985
to 2016 in Somalia. ARDL bounds testing approach and Granger causality were employed to
model the long run and short run co-integrations and the causality directions of the scrutinized
variables (Warsame et al., 2022)