Premier Weekly Outlook

Premier
Weekly
Outlook
Exness Financial Market Strategists

03 July 2023
Premier Weekly Outlook

Content

01 Summary
02 Macroeconomic Highlights
USA
United Kingdom
Eurozone
Japan

03 Fundamental Information
Gold
Oil
Bitcoin on-chain data

04 Technical Analysis
XAUUSD
GBPUSD
EURUSD
USDJPY
USOIL
BTCUSD

The information on this material is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as
containing investment advice or an offer of solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments.
Neither the presenter nor Exness takes into account your personal investment objectives or financial
situation and assumes no liability to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information provided,
nor for any loss arising from any information supplied. Any opinions made throughout the presentation are
strictly personal to the presenters and may not reflect the opinions of Exness. Past performance does not
guarantee or predict future performance. Seek independent advice if necessary.

The information on this material may only be copied with the express written permission of Exness.

Risk Warning: CFDs are complex derivative products (CFDs) which are traded outside an exchange. These
products come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage and thus are not appropriate for all
investors. Under no circumstances shall Exness have any liability to any person or entity for any loss or
damage in whole or part caused by, resulting from, or relating to any investing activity.
Premier Weekly Outlook

Summary

01
US economy is better than
expected. Additional FED hike is
likely. Gold is under downward
pressure in the short term.
06
Oil bulls are anticipating Saudi
moves for second half of 2023

02 07
The UK economy is slowing, and Bitcoin accumulation continues,
the rising rate cannot last long. the market disregard lawsuits.

03
EUR currency is fundamentally
support for an extended period

04
The BoJ kept the policy
unchanged in June and will not
rush to tweak it.

05
Gold remains sluggish with mixed
economic data on the line
 Premier Weekly Outlook

󰑔 United States US Jobless Claims (4-week Average)

Incoming economic data show signs

of a stronger-than-expected economy,
and recession is less likely or delayed.
US Q1/2023 GDP growth was revised
to 2% with solid consumer spending,
from the previous estimate of 1.3%
Source: ©Oxford Economics, From: US: Initial jobless claims reverse
QoQ annualized rate. course and turn lower, 29 Jun 2023

US GDP Q1/2023 members are in different directions.

The futures implied policy rates priced
in a 0.25% increase in the next 1-2
meetings, while the FED's dot
suggests a 0.5% increase this year.
In either case, the USD is
strengthening in the short run along
with gold prices pressured down, but
in the longer run, when the rate-cutting
Source: ©Oxford Economics, From: US: Large upward revision to Q1
GDP, 29 Jun 2023 view materializes, maybe next year,
The jobless claims are losing upward the situation will reverse.
momentum, and the initial jobless US Futures Implied Policy Rate
claims fell to 239k vs. the market
expectation of 265k.
The job market doesn't look like
cooling, but we need to see the
nonfarm payroll this week to confirm
the job market momentum.
The Fed chair, Powell, emphasizes Source: Bloomberg Terminal, accessed on 1 Jul 2023

that more hikes are coming, but other

 Premier Weekly Outlook

󰏅 United UK Mortgage Approvals and Lending

Kingdom
The UK economy is slowing, and the
rising rate cannot last long.
Q1's national accounts confirmed that
the UK economy grew very little at
0.1% QoQ, with consumer spending
having no growth.
Source: ©Oxford Economics, From: UK: More signs of dissaving, but
UK Household Saving Ratio housing headwinds grow, 30 Jun 2023

The higher interest rate has affected

mortgage lending.
The BoE will continue to raise the rate
amid divided votes in the MPC.
However, the high rate might only stay
for a short time as the economy slows
alongside other developed countries.
The GBP currency will only gain
Source: ©Oxford Economics, From: UK: More signs of dissaving, but fundamental support for a short
housing headwinds grow, 30 Jun 2023
period.
The strong gain in real household
disposable income in Q4/2022, aided
by government energy support, was
not repeated in Q1/2023 as it fell 0.8%
qoq.
The household saving ratio was down
to 8.7% from 9.3%, meaning
consumers used their savings to
spend.
 Premier Weekly Outlook

󰎾 Eurozone Eurozone Key Surveys

Eurozone inflation dropped to 5.5%

yoy in June, but core inflation ticked
up to 5.4%. The uptick in core inflation
does not mean that the disinflationary
process has stopped, but it will push
the ECB to continue its tightening.
Source: ©Oxford Economics, From: Eurozone: Hawk ECB remains icy
Eurozone Headline Inflation Breakdown
despite heating recession fears, 30 Jun 2023

a tightened policy for longer than

expected.
The ECB is ready to accept a
recession while fighting inflation. The
EUR currency is fundamentally getting
strong support for an extended period
as we expect the ECB to hold the rate
at its peak for longer than expected.
Source: ©Oxford Economics, From: Eurozone: Core inflation ticks up
due to temporary base effects, 30 Jun 2023 Eurozone Lending Flows
The ECB raising 0.25% on 6 July is
pretty sure, and another hike in
September is likely.
Last week's surveys provided further
evidence that the economy is losing
momentum rapidly. Lending flows
continue to stay close to zero growth.
The economic data points to a
recession, but the ECB's stance Source: ©Oxford Economics, From: Eurozone: Credit momentum
remained weak in May, 28 Jun 2023
remains hawkish. And ECB maintains
 Premier Weekly Outlook

󰏦 Japan Japan-USA Yield Spread

The BoJ kept the policy unchanged in

June and will not rush to tweak it.
Governor Ueda's dovish statements
have convinced the market that early
policy changes are unlikely.
Japan Inflation Forecasts
Source: ©Oxford Economics, From: Japan: Weak external environment
will weigh on the economy, 30 Jun 2023

Other economic indicators show

mixed signs, but at least it is not
booming. Thus, we are convinced that
inflation will not spike in Japan.

Source: ©Oxford Economics, From: Japan: Weak external environment

will weigh on the economy, 30 Jun 2023

Oxford Economics forecasted inflation

to decline (Chart 1), supporting the
BoJ view above.
The JPY weakened to a 7-month low
of 144 in late June as the BoJ's dovish
stance stood out among major central
banks.
Given the widened US/JP yield spread
(Chart 2), the yen will remain weak
this year before gaining gradually in
2024 with Fed's rate cuts.
 Premier Weekly Outlook

🧈 Gold However, despite this moderation in

the core PCE price index, the Federal
The recent performance of gold prices Reserve's determination to continue
has been influenced by the hiking interest rates remains
expectations and actions of the unchanged. As a result, these positive
Federal Reserve regarding the economic indicators have failed to
tightening of monetary policy. Despite provide a boost to gold prices.
a brief pause in June, the Fed has Probabilities of Fed Rate increase on July
resumed a hawkish stance, causing
downward pressure on gold coupled
with mixed economic data releases
have further contributed to the decline
in gold prices.
Source: www.cmegroup.com, 30 Jun 2023
Core PCE Price Index

The probability of the Federal Reserve

Source: www.tradingeconomics.com, 30 june 2023
In the final week of June, a series of
major economic data, including US
GDP and the Core PCE price index,
were released. Of particular
significance was the Core PCE price
index, which showed a slight
softening of 0.3% to 4.6% compared
to the expected 4.7%.
increasing the interest rate by 25
basis points to a range of 5.25% to
5.5% in July has increased to over 80%
compared to the previous week, as
indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool.
In conclusion, gold prices remain
sluggish, impacted by the Federal
Reserve's hawkish stance on
monetary policy, along with upbeat
economic data.
 Premier Weekly Outlook

🛢 Oil However, the likelihood of more

interest rate increases by the US
Brent oil is experiencing its longest Federal Reserve and other central
streak of quarterly losses in over 30 banks has raised concerns about a
years due to concerns about potential drag on energy
oversupply and weak demand. Factors consumption, which could hinder the
such as a potential global economic oil market's recovery.
slowdown, slow recovery in China, and Potential Catalyst to drive oil prices
continued crude exports from Russia Production Cut
Economic
Oil Prices
Resilience
and Iran have contributed to ample
Saudi to Better than Oil price rallies and
supplies. This has resulted in Brent implement expected stabilize for the second
significant economic data half
settling below 75 USD per barrel, production cut

recording its fourth consecutive

quarterly loss, while WTI has also The outlook for oil demand remains
seen back-to-back declines for the positive, particularly from the US and
first time since 2019. China, and the key factor will be Saudi
Arabia's commitment to tightening the
market through additional output cuts.
Oil bulls are hopeful that Saudi Arabia
will implement significant production
cuts in the second half of the year to
raise Brent oil above 80 USD per barrel
and WTI to at least 75 USD.
Source: Bloomberg News, from Brent Oil Posts Record Run of Quarterly
Losses on High Supply, 30 June 2023 While consensus on higher interest
The outlook for the second half of the rates remain, recent US GDP data
year remains mixed. Markets are displayed a stronger-than-expected
anticipating a tightening of the resilience.
market, partially driven by the end of
seasonal maintenance.
 Premier Weekly Outlook

₿ Bitcoin on-chain Bitcoin: Balance on Exchanges (Total) - All Exchanges

The bitcoin withdrawal trend has

continued in the past week, with the
most significant withdrawal
Source: www.glassnode.com, 3 Jul 2023
happening on Saturday (1/7).
At the same time, the Illiquid Supply
Bitcoin: Net Transfer Volume From/To Exchanges
has increased to its all-time high
together with these withdrawals.
Bitcoin: Illiquid Supply

Source: www.glassnode.com, 3 Jul 2023

As Binance's lawsuit gets more silent,

a significant aggregate withdrawal
happened in Coinbase. This condition
can be due to the increase the
regulatory pressure.
Bitcoin: Net Transfer Volume From/To Exchanges - Coinbase
Source: www.glassnode.com, 3 Jul 2023
In conclusion, bitcoin accumulation
has not ended amid the lawsuits on
the most prominent global exchanges,
Binance and Coinbase. However,
those exchanges do not rule bitcoin,
and the market embraced the
decentralisation of Bitcoin.

Source: www.glassnode.com, 3 Jul 2023 * Bitcoin refers to the network

** bitcoin refers to the coin
The net withdrawal has caused the
Balance on Exchanges to drop to its
5-year low, indicating the continuation
of accumulation.
Premier Weekly Outlook

Economic Calendar
Monday, 3 July 2023
GMT+7 Unit Event Actual Forecast Previous

All Day Canada - Canada Day

All Day United States - Independence Day - Early close at 13:00

14:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 41 43.2

15:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 46.2 47.1

21:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 47.2 46.9

Tuesday, 4 July 2023

GMT+7 Unit Event Actual Forecast Previous

All Day United States - Independence Day

11:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul) 4.35% 4.10%

Thursday, 6 July 2023

GMT+7 Unit Event Actual Forecast Previous

1:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

19:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) 236K 278K

19:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 245K 239K

20:45 USD Services PMI (Jun) 54.1 54.9

21:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 50.5 50.3

21:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (May) 10.103M

22:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories -9.603M

Source: www.investing.com, 3 July 2023

Premier Weekly Outlook

Friday, 7 July 2023

GMT+7 Unit Event Actual Forecast Previous

19:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) 0.30% 0.30%

19:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) 200K 339K

19:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Jun) 3.7% 3.7%

Source: www.investing.com, 3 Jul 2023

Highlights of the week:

★ Holiday-shortened trading week for the traders, but a series of
significance economic data will stir the market.
★ Despite pending FED meeting minutes in the coming week, market
already pricing in another hike rate in July to a range of 5.25% - 5.50%.
★ Nonfarm payroll growth is expected to moderate in June as the
demand for workers continues to decline.
★ Initial jobless claims have increased and job postings have decreased,
indicating a decrease in job opportunities.
Premier Weekly
Technical Analysis
Outlook

Close R1 103.50 R2
DXY 102.90 S1 102.00 S2
104.50

101.00

Structure Up ↗ Tendency Sideways → Indicators Sideways →

Observations Opinions

DXY continued its recovery and briefly The index rejected the 103.50 level
traded above 103.50. The index and closed lower. However, the
closed above both EMAs but returned rejection has not shown a trend
to the EMAs that move sideways change indication but a normal
side-by-side with a flat distance. retracement.
The structure is upward with a The index may retest the next
sideways tendency. resistance at 103.50 - 104.50 if it
MACD has golden-crossed the Signal continues its upward momentum.
line under the zero line. The Should the index fails to break above
histograms are flattening in the 103.50, it may return to the 102.20 -
positive zone. 102.50 range.
Premier Weekly
Technical Analysis
Outlook

Close R1 1940 R2
XAUUSD 1916 S1 1890 S2
1968

1860

Structure Down ↘ Tendency Up ↗ Indicators Down ↘

Observations Opinions

XAUUSD fell to the week's lowest The price makes a new low but not
level at 1892 before rebounding. The with MACD, which showed a
price stay below both EMAs. At the contrarian signal. Bearish momentum
same time, EMA21 remains below is weakening. So this week, we might
EMA78. see the price rebound no more or
The structure is downward, while the less.
tendency is upward. 1940 will be the first resistance, and
MACD and the Signal line remain 1968 could be the target if the price
below zero line. The histograms are rebounds. On the other hand, it may
shrinking in the negative zone. continue its downtrend if it breaks
1890, and 1860 will be the target.
Premier Weekly
Technical Analysis
Outlook

Close R1 1.1015 R2
EURUSD 1.0907 S1 1.0840 S2
1.1100

1.0780

Structure Up ↗ Tendency Sideways → Indicators Up ↗

Observations Opinions

EURUSD went sideways for another The price is in the correction trend in
week. The consolidation range is the upward structure. It is showing a
1.0840 - 1.0970. The price remains sideways correction, but it could be a
higher than EMA21, which is above downward correction if it falls below
EMA78. EMAs distance is expanding. 1.0840.
The structure is upward while the The uptrend confirmation will be at
tendency remains sideways. 1.1015, and the significant resistance
MACD has a dead cross the Signal will be at the 1.1100 level.
line above the zero line. At the same On the contrary, if the price breaks
time, the histograms are flat. below 1.0840, the 1.0780 level will be
the next support.
Premier Weekly
Technical Analysis
Outlook

Close R1 1.2850 R2
GBPUSD 1.2699 S1 1.2680 S2
1.3000

1.2540

Structure Up ↗ Tendency Sideways → Indicators Down ↘

Observations Opinions

GBPUSD failed from the support level The market is still trading in an
at 1.2680 but managed to close upward structure. Price may fluctuate
above this support before the end of in a wider range which ranging from
the week. The price is trading above 1.2540 to 1.2850.
both of the EMAs, which are still A breakout from the above range will
departing from each other. determine the short-term movement.
The current structure is upward, and If the price breaks 1.2850, then
the tendency is sideways. 1.3000 is the nearby target of upward
MACD had a dead-cross the Signal movement. On the contrary, if the
line. At the same time, the histograms price closes below 1.2680, then
flatten in the negative zone. 1.2540 will be the nearby support.
Premier Weekly
Technical Analysis
Outlook

Close R1 145.10 R2
USDJPY 144.56 S1 140.88 S2
148.36

138.76

Structure Up ↗ Tendency Up ↗ Indicators Up ↗

Observations Opinions

USDJPY reached its target at 145.10 USDJPY still maintains its upward
and made a modest correction back structure and tendency despite the
to 144.10 after that. However, price modest correction at the level 145.10.
managed to hold above this level If price manages to close above
145.10, then it may head to 148.36.
then. Price is also trading above both
of the EMAs, which are expanding. However, bearing in mind that the
The current structure and tendency more USDJPY advances the more
are upward. risky that BoJ may intervene.
MACD is above the Signal line above On the contrary, if the price retraces
the zero line. The histograms are in significantly, the nearest support will
the positive zone. be around 140.90 level.
Premier Weekly
Technical Analysis
Outlook

Close R1 74.20 R2
USOIL 70.60 S1 70.00 S2
78.00

66.00

Structure Sideways → Tendency Sideways → Indicators Sideways →

Observations Opinions

USOIL moved slower in the past The price bounced strongly after
weeks, with the price maintained in hitting its support area at 66.00 -
the narrower range. The price closed 67.00. However, there is no indication
above EMA21, which is below EMA78 of an upward continuation without the
with a contracting EMAs distance. price breaking its previous high.
The structure and are If it continues its upward momentum
tendency
sideways. and closes above its last swing high,
MACD has golden-crossed the Signal it may target the 74.20 - 78.00 area.
line below the zero line. The On the other hand, the price may
histograms are growing in the return to 66.00 - 67.00 if it fails to
positive zone. break above the downward trendline.
Premier Weekly
Technical Analysis
Outlook

Close R1 32000 R2
BTCUSD 30700 S1 28500 S2
34000

25000

Structure Up ↗ Tendency Sideways → Indicators Sideways →

Observations Opinions

BTCUSD soared and closed above its The price maintains the structure.
previous resistance at 30000. The However, the price has not moved
price broke its previous swing high at significantly, making it move in its
around 28500. It closed above both sideways range. Currently, the
EMAs, which have golden crossed. momentum has slowed considerably.
The structure is upward while the If the price closes above its sideways
tendency remains sideways. range, it may soar to 32000 - 34000,
MACD and the Signal line are above its Rectangle pattern target.
the zero line. At the same time, the On the contrary, the price may return
histograms have started to flatten in to 25000 - 28500, the pattern target if
the positive zone. it closes below the range.
Premier Weekly Outlook

The information on this material is provided for information purposes only and
should not be construed as containing investment advice or an offer of
solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments.

Neither the presenter nor Exness takes into account your personal investment
objectives or financial situation and assumes no liability to the accuracy,
timeliness or completeness of the information provided, nor for any loss arising
from any information supplied.

Any opinions made throughout the presentation are strictly personal to the
presenters and may not reflect the opinions of Exness. Past performance does
not guarantee or predict future performance. Seek independent advice if
necessary.

The information on this material may only be copied with the express written
permission of Exness.

Risk Warning

CFDs are complex derivative products (CFDs) which are traded outside an
exchange. These products come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to
leverage and thus are not appropriate for all investors. Under no circumstances
shall Exness have any liability to any person or entity for any loss or damage in
whole or part caused by, resulting from, or relating to any investing activity.

Thank you for reading.