Paper No: 14 Statistical Applications in Environmental Sciences

Module: 37 Measurement of Seasonal, Cyclic and Irregular Variation

Development Team
Prof. R.K. Kohli
Principal Investigator
& Prof. V.K. Garg &Prof.AshokDhawan
Co- Principal Investigator
Central University of Punjab, Bathinda

Dr. Harmanpreet Singh Kapoor,

Paper Coordinator
Central University of Punjab, Bathinda
Dr. Harmanpreet Singh Kapoor
Content Writer
Central University of Punjab, Bathinda
Content Reviewer Prof. Kanchan Jain,
Panjab University, Chandigarh

Anchor Institute Central University of Punjab 1

Statistical Applications in Environmental Sciences

Environmental
Sciences Measurement of Seasonal, Cyclic and Irregular Variation
 Description of Module

Subject Name Environmental Sciences

Paper Name Statistical Applications in Environmental Sciences

Module Name/Title Measurement of Seasonal, Cyclic and Irregular Variation

Module Id EVS/SAES-XIV/37

Pre-requisites Basic Mathematics, Mod 35-36

To give method of measurement of seasonal, cyclic and irregular component with their examples
Objectives
including merits and demerits.

Keywords Time series, seasonal, cyclic and irregular component, average, moving average

Statistical Applications in Environmental Sciences

Environmental
Sciences Measurement of Seasonal, Cyclic and Irregular Variation
Module 37: Measurement of Seasonal, Cyclic and Irregular Variation
 Learning Objectives
 Introduction.
 Measurement of Seasonal Variation
 De-seasonalization
 Measurement of Cyclic Variation
 Measurement of Irregular Component
 Summary
 Suggested Readings

1. Learning Objectives

Introduction to the Time series and its components of the time series were discussed in the module
named as “Introduction to the time series and its importance”. Measurement of secular trend was
discussed in the module named as “Measurement of the secular trend”. Now we will discuss the
measurement of seasonal, cyclic and irregular variation. These types of variation will be discussed in
this module with examples and merits / demerits of the measurement methods.

2. Introduction:

Measurement of time series components means to identify the components, isolate the components and
eliminate the components. The components of time series like seasonal, cyclic and irregular has already
been discussed in other modules. One can visit the module “Introduction to the time Series and its
importance” to recall about the components of time series. In this module, our main concern is, if one
can detect the components of time series in the data then what to do next. One must apply some methods
to measure or eliminate them. Hence in this module, measurement methods for seasonal, cyclic and
irregular components are discussed one by one.

In this module, first we will discuss methods of measurement for seasonal variation. As seasonal is a
component of time series that prevails for a short time period so most of measurement methods for
seasonality can only be applied on the data whose values are available after a short time periods like
monthly, quarterly etc.

Statistical Applications in Environmental Sciences

Environmental
Sciences Measurement of Seasonal, Cyclic and Irregular Variation
 In continuation, we will discuss about the methods for the measurement of cyclic variations. As cyclic
variation can only be observed on a long period data, hence it is generally evaluated by eliminating other
components from the time series. Last component of time series is irregular variation and it is generally
considered as an error term or residual term that cannot be completely removed from the data.

In the next session, methods for the measurement of different components will be discussed in steps. As
lot of mathematical calculations are required to find out these values, thus one should be aware of basic
terms like sum, average, proportion etc.

3. Measurement of seasonal variation:

Seasonal variation occurs due to seasonal factors and man-made effects on the variable in any time
series. There are many methods available in the literature for the measurement of the seasonal variation.

Some of the most useful and important methods are:

1. Method of simple average
2. Ratio to trend method
3. Ratio to moving average method
4. Link relative method
Let us discuss these methods in details.

3.1 Method of simple average: This is the easiest and simplest method to measure the seasonal
variations. To find out the simple average one has to follow the steps.
Steps for calculating seasonal variation indices are:
● Arrange the observations in quarterly/ monthly/ yearly manner according to the requirement of
study variable or availability of the data.

 Calculate the average values of observations for all quarters / months/ years over different years.
 Now calculate the quarterly/ monthly/ yearly (seasonal) average values. To find out average of
quarterly/ monthly values, divide total of quarterly/monthly values by 4 / 12 to get seasonal
average values respectively.

total of the season with respect to one year

seasonal average =
number of the partition in a season

Statistical Applications in Environmental Sciences

Environmental
Sciences Measurement of Seasonal, Cyclic and Irregular Variation
 ● Calculate seasonal indices for different years by expressing quarterly/ monthly (seasonal)
average as percentage of total average of quarterly/ monthly (seasonal).

seasonal average
Seasonal index for ith year = × 100
total of the seasonal average

● Note that total of seasonal indices for quarter must be equal to 4*100 i.e. 400 and for months, it
must be 12*100 i.e.1200.
● Note that seasonal here represents quarter or month. There are four quarter and twelve months
in a year.
Next, we will discuss an example of sales of bicycle to compute the seasonal indices using simple
average method.

Example 1: Sale of bicycles (in lac.) from year 2012-2017 are given in the Table 1. Compute the
seasonal indices using method of simple average (hypothetical data).

Years 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

quart quart quart quart
2012 14 10 16 12
2013 12 5 12 2
2014 10 11 8 12
2015 3 14 10 14
2016 10 11 8 13
2017 12 13 10 8
Table 1
Solution:
Steps to compute seasonal indices by method of simple average for given example of sale of bicycle (in
lac.) from year 2012-2017 are:

Statistical Applications in Environmental Sciences

Environmental
Sciences Measurement of Seasonal, Cyclic and Irregular Variation
  First arrange the quarter’s data corresponding to year. As in 2012 year 1st quarter, 2nd quarter, 3rd
quarter and 4th quarter values are given as 14, 10, 16, and 12 respectively. Similarly, we also
have values for 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 years.
 Now calculate seasonal average for all year using formula for calculating seasonal average.
Seasonal average for 2012 = (14 + 10 + 16 + 12)/4 = 13
Also calculate the same for 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.
 Total average for each quarter is calculated by using formula
14 + 12 + 10 + 3 + 10 + 12
Total average for Ist quarter = = 10.1666667
6
Similarly, calculate the same for other quarters.
 Now compute the seasonal indices by given formula for calculating seasonal indices in method.

seasonal indices for 2012 = 13/10.41666 = 124.79996

Also calculate the same for 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.
 Now calculate total of seasonal indices by summing all seasonal indices for 2012, 2013, ….2017.
It is equal to approximate 600. We know that for quarterly data total of seasonal indices must be
400. So there is need to do adjustment in them.
 To do adjustment in seasonal indices, multiply seasonal indices by correction factor k.
400
k=
Total of Seasonal indicies
k = 400/600 = 0.6666
Adjusted seasonal indices for 2012 = 124.799×0.6666=83.1991
Similarly calculate for 2013, 2014,...,2017.
Now, calculate total of adjusted seasonal indices, and this total is equal to 399.96 approx. 400.
The following table shows seasonal indices:
Years 1st quart 2nd quart 3rd quart 4th quart Seasonal seasonal adjust SI
Average indices
2012 14 10 16 12 13 124.7999601 83.19914138
2013 12 5 12 2 7.75 74.40004762 49.59953574
2014 10 11 8 12 10.25 98.40006298 65.59938598
2015 3 14 10 14 10.25 98.40006298 65.59938598

Statistical Applications in Environmental Sciences

Environmental
Sciences Measurement of Seasonal, Cyclic and Irregular Variation
 2016 10 11 8 13 10.5 100.8000645 67.19937101
2017 12 13 10 8 10.75 103.200066 68.79935603
Total 10.1666667 10.66666667 10.6666667 10.166667 10.41666667 600.0002642 399.9961761
Average

Table 2

One can observe that last column shows seasonal indices and total of seasonal indices is 400.

Merits and Demerits:

This method is very simple but it is used less to calculate seasonal indices. This method is based on the
assumption that data doesn't contain any trend and cyclic component. The major important factor by
using this method is that irregular component eliminates by averaging seasonal indices that can be
quarterly or monthly. This assumption is not really true in economic sector hence this method can't be
used in all sectors in an efficient manner.

3.2 Ratio to Trend method:

Ratio to trend method is an improvement over the method of simple average.

To calculate the seasonal indices by this method one must has to follow some steps. These steps are:
● Firstly calculate the trend value by least square method. Method of least square was already
discussed in the module “Measurement of Secular Trend”.
● then denote the data as a percentage of trend values.
● Assuming that the multiplicative model of the time series fits the data then this modified data
contain seasonal, cyclic and irregular components. For removing the cyclic and irregular
components one has to take average for all quarters/months separately.
● Now the total of seasonal indices should be 1200 for months and 400 for quarters. If this is not
the case then there is need to do some modification in the seasonal indices by multiplying it with
constant 𝑘.
1200 400
k= ; k=
Total of Seasonal indicies Total of Seasonal indicies
for monthly and quarterly respectively.

Statistical Applications in Environmental Sciences

Environmental
Sciences Measurement of Seasonal, Cyclic and Irregular Variation
 Example 2: Price of a commodity from year 2013-2017 are shown in Table 3. Apply ratio to trend
method for computing seasonal indices (hypothetical data).

year(t) 1st quar 2nd quar 3 rd quar 4th quar

2013 30 40 36 34
2014 34 52 50 44
2015 40 58 54 48
2016 54 76 68 62
2017 80 92 86 82
Table 3
Solution:
For computation of seasonal indices by ratio to trend method for the given example of price of a
commodity from year 2013-2017, first calculate trend value by using method of least square method for
fitting an linear trend.
Following table will be helpful to learn about computation of linear trend values by least square method.
This table’s last column shows trend values.

1st 3rd 4th 𝒙=t-

year(t) quart 2nd quart quart quart Average(𝒚) 2015 𝒙𝟐 𝒙𝒚 𝒚𝒕
2013 30 40 36 34 35 -2 4 -70 32
2014 34 52 50 44 45 -1 1 -45 44
2015 40 58 54 48 50 0 0 0 56
2016 54 76 68 62 65 1 1 65 68
2017 80 92 86 82 85 2 4 170 80
Total 280 0 10 120 56
Table 4
Computation of linear trend by using method of least square. Let us suppose straight line equation as:

Statistical Applications in Environmental Sciences

Environmental
Sciences Measurement of Seasonal, Cyclic and Irregular Variation
 𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥.
The normal equations for estimating of the values of 𝑎 and 𝑏 are:

∑ 𝑦𝑖 = 𝑛𝑎 + 𝑏 ∑ 𝑥𝑖 ;

∑ 𝑥𝑖 𝑦𝑖 = 𝑎 ∑ 𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏 ∑ 𝑥𝑖2 .

One can solve the above equations to find out the values of 𝑎 and 𝑏 by putting values of
∑𝑥𝑖 𝑦𝑖 , ∑𝑥𝑖2 and ∑𝑦𝑖 , 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑛 and 𝑛 represents number of observations.
∑ 𝑦𝑖 280
𝑎= = = 56 ;
𝑛 5
∑ 𝑥𝑦 120
𝑏= = = 12.
∑ 𝑥2 10
Hence, the straight line trend is:
𝑦𝑡 = 56 + 12𝑥.
Here, yearly increment in trend equation is 𝑏 i.e.12. The positive value of 𝑏 implies that there is an
increasing trend in the data.
To compute quarterly increment divide 𝑏 by 4 i.e. 12/4 which is 3.
Computation of seasonal indices
 Trend values are computed for the quarters using trend line equation. Using the trend line
equation the value for the year 2013 is 32 which is in between of the half of second and third
quarter value. So trend value for second and third quarter is 32-1.5 and 32+1.5 respectively. For
first quarter and fourth quarter is 30.5-3 and 33.5+3 respectively. Similarly compute trend values
for 2014, 2015,….., 2017.
 Trend eliminated values can be find by dividing original quarterly values to trend quarterly
values.
Trend eliminated value for 2013:
For 1st quarter = (30/27.5) × 100 = 109.1
For 2nd quarter = (40/30.5) × 100 = 131.1
For 3rd quarter = (36/33.5) × 100 = 107.5
For 4th quarter = (34/36.5) × 100 = 93.1
Similarly one can find values for 2013, 2014,….,2017. All these values having no trend are known as
seasonal indices.
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  Compute average of seasonal indices and total of average of seasonal indices.
Total of average of seasonal indices is 403.08.

computation of seasonal indices

trend values trend eliminated value

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

year(t) quart quart quart quart quart quart quart quart
2013 27.5 30.5 33.5 36.5 109.1 131.1 107.5 93.1
2014 39.5 42.5 45.5 48.5 86.1 122.4 109.9 90.7
2015 51.5 54.5 57.5 60.5 77.7 106.4 93.9 70.3
2016 63.5 66.5 69.5 72.5 85 114.3 97.8 58.5
2017 75.5 78.5 81.5 84.5 106 117.1 105.5 97
Total 436.9 591.3 514.6 445.6
average seasonal indices 89.28 118.26 102.92 89.12
adjusted seasonal indices 92.07 117.36 102.14 88.44
Table 5
Sum of average seasonal indices is greater than 400. There is a need for adjustment.
400
For adjustment, multiply average seasonal indices by correction factor 𝑘 = 403.08 = 0.9924.

These new seasonal indices are known as adjusted seasonal indices and sum of adjusted seasonal
indices is 400 for quarterly data.
Merits and demerits:
This method is an improvement over the method of simple average. This method is based on the
assumption that seasonal variation is a constant factor for the trend. So in this method trend remains in
the data and it removes cyclic,irregular components from the data.
3.3 Ratio to moving average method:

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Statistical Applications in Environmental Sciences

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 It is already discussed in the module “Measurement of secular trend” that moving average method is
used to remove periodic movements from the data. Seasonal variation can be removed permanently from
the quarterly/ monthly data by taking 4 quarters/ 12 months moving average if there exist a constant
pattern and intensity.

To calculate seasonal indices by ratio to moving average method steps are:

● This method is similar to the ratio to trend method. There is only one difference between these
two methods. Trend value can be found from original data in ratio to trend method whereas
centered moving average value can be found from original data in ratio to moving average
method.
origial value
ratio to moving average = × 100.
moving average
● Further step are same as the ratio to trend method after moving averages.

Example 3: Sales of refrigerator (in thousand) from year 2009 to 2011 are shown in Table 6, compute
seasonal indices by using ratio to moving average method (Hypothetical data).
year 1st quar 2nd quar 3rd quar 4th quar
2009 35 34 40 29
2010 21 25 26 28
2011 30 35 36 22
Table 6
Solution: To compute seasonal indices by ratio to moving average method for the given example of
sales of refrigerator, first calculate moving average and then compute ratio to moving average.
 Calculate moving average:
Here, we are calculating moving average for even period i.e. 4. Add first four values and place it middle
of the 2 and 3 quarter for year 2009. Next four, place it middle of 3 or 4 and so on until all observations
are covered.
To do centering of these values, add first two values and place it middle of these two values. Suppose
we add 138 and 124 , place it in front of 3 and similarly other also can find.
Now, take average of these 2 -period moving Total by dividing 2.
6th column of the following table shows 4-quarter moving average.
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Statistical Applications in Environmental Sciences

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 Year 𝒚𝒕 4-quatrely 2 period 4- quarter ratio to moving
moving moving moving average
totals totals average
quart
1 35

2 34
138
2009 3 40 262 32.75 122.1374046
124
4 29 239 29.875 97.07112971
115
1 21 216 27 77.77777778
101
2 25 201 25.125 99.50248756
100
2010 3 26 209 26.125 99.5215311
109
4 28 228 28.5 98.24561404
119
1 30 248 31 96.77419355
129
2 35 252 31.5 111.1111111
2011 123
3 36

4 22

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Statistical Applications in Environmental Sciences

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 Table 7
 Ratio to moving average
Ratio to moving average can be calculated by given formula for ratio to moving average in the
method.

ratio to moving average for 3rd quarter for year 2009 = (40/32.75) × 100 = 122.137.
Similarly, one can find ratio to moving average values for other years. These values of ratio to moving
average values are also known as seasonal indices.
Sum of average seasonal indices is 401.06, which is greater than 400. There is need for adjustment in
seasonal indices.
To do adjustment in seasonal indices, multiply average seasonal indices by correction factor k.
K = 400/401.06 = 0.9973
For 1st quarter, adjusted seasonal indices = 87.2755 × 0.9973 = 87.044
Similarly, one can find other adjusted seasonal indices.

Year 1st quart 2nd quart 3rd quart 4th quart Total
2009 - - 122.1374 97.07113
2010 77.777 99.502 99.521 98.245
2011 96.77419 111.111
Total 174.55119 210.613 221.6584 195.31613
average(S.I) 87.275595 105.3065 110.8292 97.658065 401.06936
adjusted
S.I. 87.0443147 105.027438 110.535503 97.3943882 400.001643
Table 8
From above table, one can see that sum of adjusted seasonal indices is 400. These are the seasonal
indices for the given example.
Merits and demerits:

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 Ratio to moving average method is the very flexible, easiest and widely used method to measure the
seasonal variation because it removes trend and cyclic component from the indices. One drawback of
this method is that there is some loss of information at the starting of this method.
3.4 Link relative method:

Link relative method is based on the averaging the link relatives. Link relatives is a percentage value of
one season with respect to previous season. Here season means time interval.

current season value

link relative for any season = × 100.
previous month value

Steps included in this method:

● Calculate link relatives of the original data.
● Find the average of the link relatives for each year and every quarter/month.
● Convert the average link relatives into the chain relatives on the base of the preceding season.
(L. R. for that season) × (C. R. of preceding season)
chain relatives for any season =
100

● Total of chain relatives are not equal to 400 for quarters and 1200 for months then there is a need
for correction. This correction will be done by subtracting correction factor to all chain relatives.
L. R. for season value × C. R. for last season
new C. R. for any season =
100
new C. R. for any season − 100
𝑑=
number of season

Note: number of season for months is 12, for quarters is 4.

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 Example 4: Prices of a commodity from year 2001 to 2004 are shown in Table 9, compute seasonal
indices by using Link relative method.

year 2001 2002 2003 2004

1st quar 20 12 23 24
2nd quar 22 19 19 12
3rd quar 28 16 16 18
4th quar 23 10 13 15
Table 9

Solution:

To compute seasonal indices by using link relative method, steps are:

 To compute link relatives for values given in Table 9 for any season i.e. quarter. Starting with
first value, one cannot compute link relative for first observation because there is no value
available preceding this value.
So start with second value to compute link relative, then using 1st quarter value with respect to
2002 link relative = (12/20)×100 = 60, then using 1st quarter value with respect to 2003, link
relative = (23/12) × 100 = 191.6666.
Similarly, one can find link relatives for other values till all values are covered.

 After finding link relatives for all values, take quarterly average of link relatives. These values
are denoted as average link relative.

 Now, convert average link relative into chain relatives by using the formula given in the theory
for calculating chain relatives for any season.
First chain relative is always 100; second relative for second quarter = (85.2970×100)/100 =
85.2970; third chain relative for 3rd quarter = (125.744×85.29705)/100 = 107.255; fourth chain
relative for 4th quarter = (104.160×107.255)/100 = 112.717.

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  Add all chain relatives, total must be 400. As the total of chain relatives is coming out to be
404.271 from Table 10.
There is a need for adjustment. This adjustment can be done by subtracting correction factor 𝑑
to all chain relatives.
Then new C.R. for any season = 118.67× 111.717/100 = 132.576
Correction factor 𝑑 = (132.576-100)/4 = 8.144.
Adjusted chain relative for first quarter is 100; adjusted chain relatives for second quarter =
85.29705-8.144 =77.15305; for third quarter= 107.255-2×8.144 = 90.9679; for Fourth quarter=
111.7179866-3×8.144 = 87.2859.

 Take average for all adjusted chain relatives, to compute seasonal indices.
Average of adjusted chain relatives = (100+77.15305+90.967+87.2859)/4 = 88.8514
Seasonal indices can be calculated by using formula of seasonal indices.
Seasonal indices for first quarter = (adjusted chain relatives/average of adjusted chain
relatives×100 = (100/88.8514) × 100 = 112.547; for 2nd quarter = (77.153/88.8514)×100=
86.8334.
Similarly, one can find for other 3rd and 4th quarter.

Values link relatives

year 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st quart 2nd quart 3rd quart 4th quart Total
quart quart quart quart

2001 20 22 28 23 - 91.66666667 233.3333333 127.7777778

2002 12 19 16 10 60 86.36363636 57.14285714 43.47826087

2003 23 19 16 13 191.6666667 100 100 130

2004 24 12 18 15 104.3478261 63.15789474 112.5 115.3846154

Total 356.0144928 341.1881978 502.9761905 416.640654

Average 118.6714976 85.29704944 125.7440476 104.1601635

C.R. 100 85.29705 107.2559632 111.7179866 404.271

adjusted C.R. 100 77.15305 90.96796317 87.28598661 88.8517499

S.I. 112.5470236 86.83346141 102.381735 98.23777997 400

Table 10
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 From Table 10, sum of seasonal indices evaluates as 400.
Merits and demerits:

Link relatives are more complicated as compared to ratio to moving average method but these two
methods are based on the same assumption and also have same results. The major benefit of this method
over the ratio to moving average is due to less loss of information as compared to ratio to moving average
method. This is the main reason that ratio to moving average method is widely used method in practice.

4 De-seasonalization:
De-seasonalization is mostly used to remove the effect of seasonality in the study variable. It is also
helpful for the interpretation of the data. Assuming multiplicative model, de-seasonalization can be done
by divide trend value tothe seasonal value.

𝑦 𝑇x𝐶x𝑆x𝐼
deseasonlisation for multiplicative model = = 𝑇x𝐶xI
𝑆 𝑆
deseasonlisation for additive model 𝑌 − 𝑆 = 𝑇 + 𝐶 + 𝐼.
Hence one can leave with trend, cyclic and irregular component in the data.
5 Measurement of cyclic variation:

Cyclic variation exists in the data when tendency of the data increases and decreases in a given period
but time period is not fixed for cyclic variation.
Residual method is most commonly used for measuring the cyclic variation. For measurement of cycle
variation first calculate seasonal and trend components then remove seasonal, trend component and
irregular component. Irregular component is just like an error term like the previous knowledge which
cannot be directly eliminated. To eliminate irregular component moving average method is used. This
method of elimination of the irregular component is known as smoothing of irregular component.

Steps for computation of cyclic variation are:

First estimate trend (T) and seasonal values (S) of the given time series.

a) Divide time series values (Y) by trend (T) and seasonal estimated value (S), get cyclic (C) and
random component (R).

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 𝑌 𝑇𝐶𝑆𝐼
= = 𝐶𝐼
𝑇×𝑆 𝑇×𝑆
b) Now eliminate random component from second step by using moving average of 3 or 5months
period and get cyclic component.
There are some other methods that are available in the literature.Some of them are:
1) References of cyclic analysis method.
2) Direct percentage variation method.
3) Fitting of sine function method or harmonic analysis.

One can refer to the text in the references to know about them. In this module, we try our best to give
you an understanding about the methods and techniques that are used to eliminate seasonal variation
from the data.

6 Measurement of irregular component:

Irregular component is the last component, also known as error term of the time series. An error term
can't be eliminate fully from any time series because this happens due to natural forces.

There are no methods available to measure this component in literature. But this component can be
removed little bit by averaging of the indices. If there is multiplicative model of time series then it can
be removed by dividing all other components to the irregular component. If there is additivemodel then
it can be removed by subtracting all components to their regular component.

7 Summary

In this module, the measurement of seasonal, cyclic and irregular variation are discussed. These types
of variation are discussed in this module with examples and merits / demerits of various measurement
methods in detail.

8 Suggested Readings
Gupta, S. C. and Kapoor, V. K., Fundamentals of Applied Statistics, Sultan Chand & Sons, New Delhi,
2009.
Gupta, S. P., Statistical Methods, Sultan Chand & Sons, New Delhi, 2012.
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 Gupta, S.C., Fundamental of Statistics, Himalaya Publishing House, Nagpur, 2016.
Sharma, J. K., Business Statistics, Vikas Publishing House, 2014.
Tsay, R. S., Time Series and Forecasting: Brief History and Future Research, Journal of the American
Statistical Association, Vol.95, pp. 638-643, 2000.

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