CH 05 Probability An Introduction To Modeling Uncertainty

CH 05 - Probability: An Introduction to Modeling Uncertainty
Multiple Choice
1. Probability is the
a. number of successes divided by the number of failures.
b. numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur.
c. chance that an event will not happen.
d. number of successes divided by the standard deviation of the distribution.
ANSWER: b
RATIONALE: Probability is the numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur.
POINTS: 1
DIFFICULTY: Easy
REFERENCES: EVENTS AND PROBABILITIES
QUESTION TYPE: Multiple Choice
HAS VARIABLES: False
NATIONAL STANDARDS: United States - BUSPROG: Analytic
United States - DISC: - Descriptive Statistics
KEYWORDS: Bloom's: Remember
DATE CREATED: 1/23/2021 10:17 AM
DATE MODIFIED: 3/19/2021 11:33 AM
2. A __________ describes the range and relative likelihood of all possible values for a random variable.
a. probability distribution for a random variable
b. probability mass function of an event
c. density function
d. probability
ANSWER: a
RATIONALE: A probability distribution for a discrete random variable describes the range and relative
likelihood of all possible values for a random variable.
POINTS: 1
DIFFICULTY: Easy
REFERENCES: DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
3. An initial estimate of the probabilities of events is a __________ probability.

a. posterior
b. conditional
c. empirical
d. prior
ANSWER: d
Copyright Cengage Learning. Powered by Cognero. Page 1
RATIONALE: Prior probability is an initial estimate of the probabilities of

events.
POINTS: 1
DIFFICULTY: Easy
REFERENCES: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
4. Bayes' theorem is a method used to compute __________ probabilities.

a. posterior
b. conditional
c. empirical
d. prior
ANSWER: a
RATIONALE: Bayes' theorem is a method used to compute posterior
probabilities.
POINTS: 1
DIFFICULTY: Easy
5. All the events in the sample space that are not part of the specified event are called
a. joint events.
b. the complement of the
event.
c. simple events.
d. independent events.
ANSWER: b
RATIONALE: The complement of an event is all the events in the sample space that are not part of the
specified event.
POINTS: 1
DIFFICULTY: Easy
REFERENCES: SOME BASIC RELATIONSHIPS OF PROBABILITY

DATE MODIFIED: 3/28/2021 6:30 PM
6. Sample space is
a. a process that results in some outcome.
b. the collection of all possible outcomes.
c. the collection of events
d. a subgroup of a population/the likelihood of an outcome.
ANSWER: b
RATIONALE: By specifying all possible outcomes, we identify the sample space of a random
experiment.
POINTS: 1
DIFFICULTY: Easy
7. The event containing the outcomes belonging to A or B or both is the __________ of A and B.
a. union
b. Venn diagram
c. intersection
d. complement
ANSWER: a
RATIONALE: The event containing the outcomes belonging to A or B or both is the union of A and B.
POINTS: 1
DIFFICULTY: Easy
REFERENCES: SOME BASIC RELATIONSHIPS OF PROBABILITY
8. Two events are independent if

a. the two events occur at the same time.

b. the probability of one or both events is greater than 1.
c. P(A | B) = P(A) or P(B | A) = P(B).
d. None of these are correct.
ANSWER: c
RATIONALE: Two events are independent if P(A | B) = P(A) or P(B | A) = P(B).
POINTS: 1
DIFFICULTY: Easy
9. Which statement is true about mutually exclusive events?

a. If events A and B cannot occur at the same time, they are called mutually
exclusive.
b. If either event A or event B must occur, they are called mutually exclusive.
c. P(A) + P(B) = 1 for any events A and B that are mutually exclusive.
d. None of these are correct.
ANSWER: a
POINTS: 1
DIFFICULTY: Easy
KEYWORDS: Bloom's: Understand
10. A joint probability is the

a. sum of the probabilities of two events.
b. probability of the intersection of two events.
c. probability of the union of two events.
d. sum of the probabilities of two independent events.
ANSWER: b
RATIONALE: The probability of the intersection of two events is called a joint probability.
POINTS: 1
DIFFICULTY: Easy


11. In the probability table below, which value is a marginal probability?
Completed
Obstacle Course Level No Yes Total
Challenging 0.4 0.3 0.7
Easy 0.1 0.2 0.3
Total 0.5 0.5 1.0
a. 0.1
b. 1.0
c. 0.5
d. 0.4
ANSWER: c
RATIONALE: The values in the Total column and Total row (the margins) provide the probabilities of each
event separately. These probabilities are referred to as marginal probabilities because of their
location in the joint probability table.
POINTS: 1
DIFFICULTY: Easy
12. A variable that can only take on specific numeric values is called a
a. categorical variable.
b. discrete random variable.
c. continuous random
variable.
d. categorical variable.
ANSWER: b
RATIONALE: A random variable that can take on only specified discrete values is referred to as a discrete
random variable.
POINTS: 1

DIFFICULTY: Easy
REFERENCES: RANDOM VARIABLES
13. An experiment consists of determining the speed of automobiles on a highway by the use of radar equipment. The
random variable in this experiment is a
a. discrete random variable.
b. continuous random
variable.
c. complex random variable.
d. categorical random variable.
ANSWER: b
RATIONALE: A random variable that may assume any numerical value in an interval or collection
of
intervals is called a continuous random variable.
POINTS: 1
DIFFICULTY: Moderate
14. Which of the following statements is correct?

a. The binomial and normal distributions are both discrete probability distributions.
b. The binomial and normal distributions are both continuous probability distributions.
c. The binomial distribution is a continuous probability distribution, and the normal distribution is a discrete
probability distribution.
d. The binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution and the normal distribution is a continuous
probability distribution.
ANSWER: d
RATIONALE: The binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution, and the normal distribution is a
continuous probability distribution.
POINTS: 1
REFERENCES: CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

15. Which of the following is a discrete random variable?

a. The number of times a student guesses the answers to questions on a certain
test
b. The amount of gasoline purchased by a customer
c. The amount of mercury found in fish caught in the Gulf of Mexico
d. The height of water-oak trees
ANSWER: a
RATIONALE: A discrete random variable can only take on specified discrete
values.
POINTS: 1
16. All of the following are examples of discrete random variables except
a. number of tickets sold.
b. marital status.
c. time.
d. population of a city.
ANSWER: c
RATIONALE: Discrete random variables take on only specific discrete values. Time is an example of a
continuous random variable, which takes on any numerical value in an interval or collection
of intervals.
POINTS: 1

17. The __________ probability distribution can be used to estimate the number of vehicles that go through an
intersection during the lunch hour.
a. binomial
b. normal
c. triangular
d. Poisson
ANSWER: d
RATIONALE: The Poisson probability distribution is often useful in estimating the number occurrences of
an event over a specified interval of time or space.
POINTS: 1
18. The random variable X is known to be uniformly distributed between 2 and 12. Compute E(X), the expected value of
the distribution.
a. 4
b. 5
c. 6
d. 7
ANSWER: d
RATIONALE: The expected value is the average of the endpoints of a uniform distribution. Therefore E(X) =
(a + b) / 2 = (2 + 12) / 2 = 7.
POINTS: 1
KEYWORDS: Bloom's: Apply
19. The random variable X is known to be uniformly distributed between 2 and 12. Compute the standard deviation of X.
a. 2.887
b. 3.464
c. 8.333
d. 12
ANSWER: a
RATIONALE: 2
The variance of a random variable that is uniformly distributed is Var(X) = (b – a) /12 = (12 –
2
2) = 12 = 8.333. The standard deviation is the square root of the variance, so the standard
deviation is 2.887.
POINTS: 1
20. If a z-score is zero, then the corresponding x-value must be equal to the
a. mean.
b. median.
c. mode.
d. standard deviation.
ANSWER: a
RATIONALE: You can transform an x-value to a z-score using the following formula: z-score = (x-value –
mean)/standard deviation. If the z-score is zero, then the x-value is equal to the mean.
POINTS: 1
21. In a normal distribution, which is greater, the mean or the median?

a. Mean
b. Median
c. Neither the mean or the median (they are equal)
d. Cannot be determined with the information
provided
ANSWER: c

RATIONALE: One of the properties of a normal distribution is that the mean, median, and mode are
equal.
POINTS: 1
22. The center of a normal curve is

a. always equal to zero.
b. the mean of the distribution.
c. always a positive number.
d. equal to the standard deviation.
ANSWER: b
RATIONALE: The center of a normal curve (the highest point on the normal curve) is at the
mean.
POINTS: 1
23. Which of the following is not a characteristic of the normal probability distribution?
a. The mean, median, and the mode are equal.
b. The mean of the distribution can be negative, zero, or positive.
c. The distribution is symmetrical.
d. The standard deviation must be 1.
ANSWER: d
RATIONALE: The standard deviation of a normal probability distribution does not have to be 1. It can be
any positive number.
POINTS: 1

24. A health conscious student faithfully wears a device that tracks his steps. Suppose that the distribution of the number
of steps he takes in a day is normally distributed with a mean of 10,000 and a standard deviation of 1,500 steps. What
percent of the days does he exceed 13,000 steps?
a. 2.28%
b. 5%
c. 95%
d. 97.72%
ANSWER: a
RATIONALE: We are asked to calculate P(X > 13,000) given a normal distribution with a mean of 10.000
and a standard deviation of 1,500 steps. This probability can be calculated using the Excel
function 1 – NORM.DIST(13000, 10000, 1500, TRUE) = 0.0228.
POINTS: 1
25. The newest model of smart car is supposed to get excellent gas mileage. A thorough study showed that gas mileage
(measured in miles per gallon) is normally distributed with a mean of 75 miles per gallon and a standard deviation of 10
miles per gallon. What is the probability that, if driven normally, the car will get 100 miles per gallon or better?
a. 0.6%
b. 2.5%
c. 6%
d. 25%
ANSWER: a
RATIONALE: We are asked to calculate P(X > 100) given a normal distribution with a mean of 75 miles per
gallon and a standard deviation of 10 miles per gallon. This probability can be calculated
using the Excel function 1 – NORM.DIST(100, 75, 10, TRUE) = 0.006.
POINTS: 1

of steps he takes in a day is normally distributed with a mean of 10,000 and a standard deviation of 1,500 steps. One day
he took 15,000 steps. What was his percentile on that day?
a. 95%
b. 97.7%
c. 99.7%
d. 100%
ANSWER: c
RATIONALE: We are asked to calculate P(X < 15,000) given a normal distribution with a mean of 10.000
and a standard deviation of 1,500 steps. This probability can be calculated using the Excel
function NORM.DIST(15000, 10000, 1500, TRUE) = 0.977.
POINTS: 1
27. The newest model of smart car is supposed to get excellent gas mileage. A thorough study showed that gas mileage
(measured in miles per gallon) is normally distributed with a mean of 75 miles per gallon and a standard deviation of 10
th
miles per gallon. What value represents the 50 percentile of this distribution?
a. 75
b. 85
c. 95
d. 105
ANSWER: a
RATIONALE: th
The 50 percentile of a normal distribution is located at its mean. In this case, the mean is 75
th
mpg, so the 50 percentile is 75.
POINTS: 1

of steps he takes is normally distributed with a mean of 10,000 and a standard deviation of 1,500 steps. How many steps
would he have to take to make the cut for the top 5% for his distribution?
a. 7,533
b. 8,078
c. 10,000
d. 12,467
ANSWER: d
RATIONALE: We are asked to calculate the number of steps needed to put the student at the top 5% of
th
days. This is equivalent to finding the 95 percentile of the distribution. Given a normal
distribution with a mean of 10,000 and a standard deviation of 1,500 steps this value can be
calculated using the Excel function NORM.INV(0.95, 10000, 1500) = 12,467.
POINTS: 1
29. What is the mean of x, given the exponential probability function

a. 0.05
b. 20
c. 100
d. 2,000
ANSWER: b
RATIONALE: The exponential probability function is
so the mean is 20.

POINTS: 1

30. Fast food restaurants pride themselves in being able to fill orders quickly. A study was done at a local fast food
restaurant to determine how long it took customers to receive their order at the drive thru. It was discovered that the time
it takes for orders to be filled is exponentially distributed with a mean of 1.5 minutes. What is the probability density
function for the time it takes to fill an order?
a.
b.
c.
d. None of these are

correct.
ANSWER: c
RATIONALE: The mean is 1.5, which is equivalent to 3/2. The exponential probability distribution function
is Substituting 3/2 for the mean gives us , which
simplifies to
POINTS: 1
31. What is the total area under the normal distribution curve?
a. It depends upon the mean and standard deviation
b. It must be calculated
c. 1
d. 100
ANSWER: c
RATIONALE: The total area under the normal distribution curve is
1.
POINTS: 1
32. The triangular distribution is a good model for __________ distributions.

a. uniform
b. skewed
c. normal
d. normal
ANSWER: b
RATIONALE: The triangular distribution is a good model for skewed
distributions.
POINTS: 1
33. Fast food restaurants pride themselves in being able to fill orders quickly. A study was done at a local fast food
restaurant to determine how long it took customers to receive their order at the drive-thru. It was discovered that the time
it takes for orders to be filled is exponentially distributed with a mean of 1.5 minutes. What is the probability that it takes
less than one minute to fill an order?
a. 0.1813
b. 0.4866
c. 0.6321
d. 0.7769
ANSWER: b
RATIONALE:
The cumulative probability P(X < 1) =

POINTS: 1

34. A survey of 100 random high school students finds that 85 students watched the Super Bowl, 25 students watched the
Stanley Cup Finals, and 20 students watched both games. How many students did not watch either game?
a. 15
b. 30
c. 10
d. 20
ANSWER: c
RATIONALE: There are 20 students that watched both games. This means that there were 65 students that
watched only the Super Bowl, and there were 5 students that watched only the Stanley Cup
Finals. 20 + 65 + 5 = 90, which means that 10 students did not watch either game.
POINTS: 1
DATE CREATED: 3/8/2021 3:21 PM
35. The number of minutes that Samantha waits to catch the bus is uniformly distributed between 0 and 15 minutes. What
is the probability that Samantha has to wait less than 4.5 minutes to catch the bus?
a. 10%
b. 20%
c. 30%
d. 3%
ANSWER: c
RATIONALE: We want to know P(X < 4.5) when the distribution is uniform between 0 and 15 minutes. The
probability is (1/15)(4.5 – 0) = 30%.
POINTS: 1


Objective Short Answer
36. A nickel and a dime are tossed. How many possible outcomes are in this event?
ANSWER: There are four possible outcomes.
RATIONALE:
POINTS: 1
QUESTION TYPE: Objective Short Answer
37. A nickel and a dime are tossed. We are interested only in the event that includes at least one head appearing on a
single toss of both coins. What are the possible outcomes?
ANSWER: There are three possible outcomes.
RATIONALE:
POINTS: 1

38. Consider a random experiment of rolling two dice. The sample space for rolling two dice is shown. Let S be the set of
all ordered pairs listed in the figure. What are the possible outcomes for the event of rolling a 7?
ANSWER:
{(6, 1), (5, 2), (4, 3), (3, 4), (2, 5), (1, 6)}
RATIONALE: The probability of rolling a seven corresponds to the event {(6, 1), (5, 2), (4, 3), (3, 4), (2, 5),
(1, 6)}
POINTS: 1
all ordered pairs listed in the figure. What is probability of rolling a 7?
ANSWER: 0.1667 or 16.7% or 1/6
RATIONALE: The probability of an event is equal to the sum of the probabilities of outcomes for the event.
The probability of rolling a 7 corresponds to the event {(6, 1), (5, 2), (4, 3), (3, 4), (2, 5), (1,
6)} which is 6 out of 36 = 1/6.
POINTS: 1


all ordered pairs listed in the figure. What is the probability of rolling a sum larger than 10?
ANSWER: 1/12 or 0.0833 or 8.3%
RATIONALE: The probability of rolling a sum of 11 corresponds to the event {(6, 5), (5, 6)}, which is 2 out
of 36 = 2/36.
The probability of rolling a sum of 12 corresponds to the event {(6, 6)}, which is 1 out of 36
= 1/36.
Using the addition rule, we add the two we have 2/36 + 1/36 = 3/36 = 1/12.
POINTS: 1
41. James has two fair coins. When he flips them, what is the sample space?
ANSWER: heads-heads, heads-tails, tails-heads, and tails-tails
RATIONALE:
POINTS: 1

42. A nickel and a dime are tossed. If an event is defined as a single toss of both coins where at least one head appears,
what is the complement of that event?
ANSWER: tails-tails
RATIONALE: The event has three possible outcomes--heads-heads, tails-heads, and heads-tails. Given an
event A, the complement of A is defined to be the event consisting of all outcomes that are not
in A. The only outcome not in the event is tails-tails.
POINTS: 1
43. Given that A and B are independent with P(A ∪ B) = 0.8 and P(Bc) = 0.3, find P(A).
ANSWER: 0.33
RATIONALE: First note that P(B) = 1 − 0.3 = 0.7
The general addition law states that
Since A and B are independent
Therefore, in this situation .
Substituting the given values yields 0.8 = P(A) + 0.7 – P(A) × 0.7.
Subtract 0.7 from both sides. 0.1 = P(A) – P(A) × 0.7.
Combine like terms on the right side. 0.1 = 0.3P(A).
Divide both sides by 0.3 to obtain the answer

POINTS: 1
DIFFICULTY: Challenging
44. A bucket contains 2 red balls, 4 yellow balls, and 5 purple balls. One ball is taken from the bucket and then replaced.
Another ball is taken from the bucket. Are the events of pulling a red ball first and then a purple one independent or
dependent?
ANSWER: Independent
RATIONALE: The sample space of 11 balls does not change from the first event to the second event. The
events are independent.

POINTS: 1
45. A bucket contains 2 red balls, 4 yellow balls, and 5 purple balls. One ball is taken from the bucket and then replaced.
Another ball is taken from the bucket. What is the probability that the first ball is red and the second ball is purple?
ANSWER: 10/121
RATIONALE: The events are independent, so the multiplication law for independent events can be used to
calculate the joint probability.
P(red then purple) = P(red) × P(purple) = 2/11 × 5/11 = 10/121
POINTS: 1
46. A bucket contains 3 red balls, 4 yellow balls, and 5 purple balls. One ball is taken from the bucket and
is not replaced. Another ball is taken from the bucket. Are the events of pulling a red ball first and then a purple one
independent or dependent?
ANSWER: dependent
RATIONALE: The sample space of the first event is 12 balls, but the sample space of the second event is
now 11 balls (because the first ball is not replaced). Therefore, the events are dependent.
POINTS: 1

47. A bucket contains 3 red balls, 4 yellow balls, and 5 purple balls. One ball is taken from the bucket and
is not replaced. Another ball is taken from the bucket. What is the probability that the first ball is red and the second ball
is purple?
ANSWER: 5/44
RATIONALE: The events are dependent therefore the probability is calculated as P(red then purple) = P(red)
• P(purple) = 3/12 • 5/11 = 15/132 = 5/44.
POINTS: 1
48. Given that P(A) = 0.3, P(A | B) = 0.4, and P(B) = 0.5, compute P(A and B).
ANSWER: 0.2
RATIONALE: P(A and B) = P(A | B) × P(B) = 0.4 × 0.5 = 0.2
POINTS: 1
49. The cross tabulation below classifies employees of a communications company by age and field of expertise. Use the
given information to create a joint probability table.
Under 35 35-44 45+ Total

Engineering 8,399 8,663 7,072 24,134
Business 14,515 14,988 26,683 56,186
Education 6,738 5,657 8,669 21,064
Liberal Arts 11,415 11,484 12,111 35,010
Total 41,067 40,792 54,535 136,394
ANSWER: Under 35 35-44 45+ Total

Engineering 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.18
Business 0.11 0.11 0.20 0.41
Education 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.15
Liberal Arts 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.26
Total 0.30 0.30 0.40 1.00
POINTS: 1
50. The contingency table below represents employees of a communications company classified by age and field of
expertise. Fill in the missing entries.

Engineering 7,635 7,875 6,429 21,939
Business 13,195 38,814
Education 4,802 5,143
Liberal Arts 10,377 10,440 11,010 31,827
Total 36,009 37,313 110,405
ANSWER: Under 35 35-44 45+ Total

Engineering 7,635 7,875 6,429 21,939
Business 13,195 13,625 11,994 38,814
Education 4,802 5,143 7,880 17,825
Liberal Arts 10,377 10,440 11,010 31,827
Total 36,009 37,083 37,313 110,405
RATIONALE: 110,405 – (36,009 + 37,313) = 37,083

110,405 – (21,939 + 38,814 + 31,827) = 17,825
37,083 – (7,875 + 5,143 + 10,440) = 13,625
17,825 – (4,802 + 5,143) = 7,880
38,814 – (13,195 + 13,625) = 11,994
POINTS: 1
51. The contingency table below represents employees of a communications company classified by age and field of
expertise. What is the probability that a randomly selected employee age 35-45 years old has business expertise?

Engineering 8,399 8,663 7,072 24,134
Business 14,515 14,988 26,683 56,186
Education 6,738 5,657 8,669 21,064
Liberal Arts 11,415 11,484 12,111 35,010
Total 41,067 40,792 54,535 136,394
ANSWER: 14,988/40,791 = 0.37

RATIONALE: There are 40,792 employees that are 35-44 years old. Of those, 14,988 have business
expertise. Therefore, the probability that a randomly selected employee that is age 35-44
years old has business expertise is 14,988 / 40,792 = 0.37.
POINTS: 1
52. The cross tabulation shown below shows employees of a communications company classified by age and field of
expertise. What is the probability that a randomly selected engineer is under the age of 35?

Engineering 8,399 8,663 7,072 24,134
Business 14,515 14,988 26,683 56,186
Education 6,738 5,657 8,669 21,064
Liberal Arts 11,415 11,484 12,111 35,010
Total 41,067 40,792 54,535 136,394
ANSWER: 8,399 / 24,134 = 0.35

RATIONALE: There are 24,134 engineers. Of those, 8,399 of them are under 35 years old. Therefore, the
probability that a randomly selected engineer is under the age of 35 is 8,399 / 24,134 = 0.35.
POINTS: 1


53. The random variable X is known to be uniformly distributed between 2 and 12. Compute P(X = 3).
ANSWER: 0
RATIONALE: A single point is an interval of zero width. This implies that the probability of a continuous
random variable assuming any particular value exactly is zero.
POINTS: 1
54. The random variable X is known to be uniformly distributed between 2 and 12. Compute P(X > 10).
ANSWER: 0.2
RATIONALE: P(X > 6) = (base)(height) = (2)(1/10) = 0.2. The probability of a continuous random variable
assuming a value in any interval is the same whether or not the endpoints are included.
POINTS: 1
55. For the standard normal probability distribution, what percent of the curve lies to the left of the mean?
ANSWER: 50%
RATIONALE: In a standard normal probability distribution, the mean is located at the center of the curve
which means that half of the area is below the mean and half is above the mean.
POINTS: 1

56. Participants at the state fair were given eight rings to toss. The number x of rings tossed onto a stick can be
approximated by the probability distribution in the table. Use the probability distribution to find the mean and variance of
the probability distribution.
x f(x)
0 0.010
1 0.030
2 0.070
3 0.070
4 0.100
5 0.210
6 0.320
7 0.130
8 0.060
ANSWER: x f(x) xf(x)

0 0.010 0
1 0.030 0.03
2 0.070 0.14
3 0.070 0.21
4 0.100 0.4
5 0.210 1.05
6 0.320 1.92
7 0.130 0.91
8 0.060 0.48
RATIONALE: The mean of a discrete random variable is given by the formula, μ = ∑ x × f(x). To calculate
the mean, multiply each value of x by its corresponding probability f(x) and then add the
products.
μ = ∑ x × f(x) = 0 + 0.03 + 0.16 + 0.255 + 0.56 + 1.05 + 1.92 + 0.91 + 0.48 = 5.14
2 2
The variance of a discrete random variable is given by the formula, σ =∑(x−μ) f(x)
x f(x) u
0 0.01 5.14 0.264
1 0.03 5.14 0.514
2 0.07 5.14 0.690
3 0.07 5.14 0.321
4 0.1 5.14 0.130
5 0.21 5.14 0.004
6 0.32 5.14 0.237
7 0.13 5.14 0.450
8 0.06 5.14 0.491
3.100
= 0.264 + 0.514 + 0.690 + 0.321 + 0.130 + 0.004 + 0.237 + 0.450 + 0.491 = 3.1
POINTS: 1
57. In a binomial experiment, what does it mean to say that each trial is independent of the other trials?
ANSWER: Each trial is independent of the other trials if the outcome of one trial does not affect the
outcome of any of the other trials.
RATIONALE: This is the definition of independence: the events do not influence one another. The
probability of one event is not changed by the existence of another event. Each trial is
independent of the other trials if the outcome of one trial does not affect the outcome of any
of the other trials.
POINTS: 1
58. What type of distribution models the number of occurrences of an event over a specified interval of time or space?
ANSWER: Poisson distribution
RATIONALE: A random variable follows a Poisson probability distribution if (1) the probability of an
occurrence is the same for any two intervals (of time or space) of equal length; and (2) the
occurrence or nonoccurrence in any interval (of time or space) is independent of the
occurrence or nonoccurrence in any other interval.
POINTS: 1

59. Let X be a random variable with a Uniform distribution between 8 and 20. Find the probability that X is less than 10?
ANSWER: 2/12 = 0.1667
RATIONALE: A continuous random variable with a uniform distribution takes the shape of a rectangle. The
base of the rectangle runs from 8 to 20. The height of the rectangle is
To calculate the probability that X is less than 10, calculate the area of the rectangle with a
base that runs from 8 to 10 (base = 2) and a height of 1/12. P(X < 10) = (2)(1/12) = 2/12 =
0.1667.
POINTS: 1
60. Could this curve represent a normal distribution?
ANSWER: No
RATIONALE: The normal distribution is symmetric, whereas this distribution is heavily right
skewed.
POINTS: 1

61. You recently took a standardized test in which scores follow a normal distribution with a mean of 18 and a standard
th
deviation of 3. You were told that your score is at the 75 percentile of this distribution. What is your score?
ANSWER: Your score is 20.
RATIONALE: th
If your score is at the 75 percentile, then you have a higher score than 75% of the test
takers. Your score can be calculated using the Excel function NORM.INV(0.75,18,3) = 20.
POINTS: 1
62. The time in seconds that it takes a production worker to inspect an item has an exponential distribution with a mean of
15 seconds. What proportion of inspection times is less than 10 seconds?
ANSWER: 0.4866
RATIONALE: For exponential distributions the cumulative probability can be calculated using the
formula
POINTS: 1
63. The random variable X is normally distributed with a mean of 80 and a standard deviation of 10. What is the
probability that a value of X chosen at random will be between 70 and 90?
ANSWER: P(70 < x < 90) = 0.683
RATIONALE: In a normal distribution, 68.3% of the values are within plus or minus one standard deviation
of the mean.
POINTS: 1

64. Reviews of call center representatives over the last three years showed that 10% of all call center representatives were
rated as outstanding, 75% were rated as excellent/good, 10% percent were rated as satisfactory, and 5% were considered
unsatisfactory. For a sample of 10 reps selected at random, what is the probability that 2 will be rated as unsatisfactory?
ANSWER: 0.0746
RATIONALE: For n = 10 and p = 0.05 and x = 2
POINTS: 1
65. A game at an arcade is in the form of a large wheel that a player spins. The wheel is programmed to give 2 tickets
50% of the time, 5 tickets 25% of the time, 10 tickets 23% of the time, and 100 tickets 2% of the time. If a player spins the
wheel once, what is the expected number of tickets the player will win?
ANSWER: 6.55
RATIONALE: The number of tickets won is a discrete random variable. The expected number of tickets the
player will win = (2)(0.5) + (5)(0.25) + (10)(0.23) + (100)(0.02) = 1 + 1.25 + 2.3 + 2 = 6.55
tickets.
POINTS: 1

CH 05 Probability An Introduction To Modeling Uncertainty

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CH 05 - Probability: An Introduction to Modeling Uncertainty

3. An initial estimate of the probabilities of events is a __________ probability.

RATIONALE: Prior probability is an initial estimate of the probabilities of

4. Bayes' theorem is a method used to compute __________ probabilities.

HAS VARIABLES: False

8. Two events are independent if

a. the two events occur at the same time.

9. Which statement is true about mutually exclusive events?

10. A joint probability is the

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REFERENCES: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

11. In the probability table below, which value is a marginal probability?

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14. Which of the following statements is correct?

QUESTION TYPE: Multiple Choice

15. Which of the following is a discrete random variable?

DATE CREATED: 1/23/2021 10:17 AM

21. In a normal distribution, which is greater, the mean or the median?

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22. The center of a normal curve is

NATIONAL STANDARDS: United States - BUSPROG: Analytic

United States - DISC: - Descriptive Statistics

DATE CREATED: 1/23/2021 10:17 AM

29. What is the mean of x, given the exponential probability function

so the mean is 20.

KEYWORDS: Bloom's: Understand

d. None of these are

is Substituting 3/2 for the mean gives us , which

32. The triangular distribution is a good model for __________ distributions.

The cumulative probability P(X < 1) =

QUESTION TYPE: Multiple Choice

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KEYWORDS: Bloom's: Apply

Objective Short Answer

United States - DISC: - Descriptive Statistics

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NATIONAL STANDARDS: United States - BUSPROG: Analytic

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Divide both sides by 0.3 to obtain the answer

events are independent.

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Under 35 35-44 45+ Total

ANSWER: Under 35 35-44 45+ Total

Total 0.30 0.30 0.40 1.00

Under 35 35-44 45+ Total

ANSWER: Under 35 35-44 45+ Total

RATIONALE: 110,405 – (36,009 + 37,313) = 37,083

Under 35 35-44 45+ Total

ANSWER: 14,988/40,791 = 0.37

Under 35 35-44 45+ Total

ANSWER: 8,399 / 24,134 = 0.35

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KEYWORDS: Bloom's: Apply

KEYWORDS: Bloom's: Apply

ANSWER: x f(x) xf(x)

DATE CREATED: 1/23/2021 10:17 AM

60. Could this curve represent a normal distribution?

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HAS VARIABLES: False

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