DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICAL AND COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCES

UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO MISSISSAUGA

STA107H5S LEC0104
An Introduction to Probability and Modelling
Course Outline - Winter 2024
Class Location & Time Tue, 04:00 PM - 05:00 PM IB 110
Thu, 03:00 PM - 05:00 PM DV 2074
Sat, 11:00 AM - 01:00 PM ZZ TBA
Instructor Masoud Ataei
Office Location DH-3033
Office Hours TBA
E-mail Address masoud.ataei@utoronto.ca
Course Web Site https://q.utoronto.ca/courses/334709

Co-Instructor Asal Aslemand

Office Location DH-3031
Office Hours TBA
E-mail Address asal.aslemand@utoronto.ca

Teaching Assistant Farhan Bishe

E-mail Address farhan.bishe@mail.utoronto.ca

Teaching Assistant Xiaoyu Cai

E-mail Address xiaoyucxy.cai@mail.utoronto.ca

Teaching Assistant Jacob Gibb

E-mail Address jacob.gipp@mail.utoronto.ca

Teaching Assistant Ting Lin

E-mail Address tinging.lin@mail.utoronto.ca

Teaching Assistant Ali Parchekani

E-mail Address a.parchekani@mail.utoronto.ca

Teaching Assistant Dongyang Yang

E-mail Address dongyang.yang@mail.utoronto.ca

Course Description
Introduction to the theory of probability, with emphasis on the construction of discrete probability models for applications. After
this course, students are expected to understand the concept of randomness and aspects of its mathematical representation. Topics
include random variables, Venn diagrams, discrete probability distributions, expectation and variance, independence, conditional
probability, applications such as queues.

Exclusion: STA256H5 or STA257H1 or STAB52H3 or STA246H5 or STA237H1 or STA247H1 or ECO227Y5 (SCI)

Distribution Requirement: SCI

Students who lack a pre/co-requisite can be removed at any time unless they have received an explicit waiver from the department.
The waiver form can be downloaded from here.

Detailed Course Description

Learning Outcomes
1. Students will demonstrate an understanding of fundamental concepts, logic, and issues that form statistical reasoning.
2. Students will be able to

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 Understand the concept of probability, recognizing it as a long-run proportion.
Understand the axioms of probability and do basic probability calculations.
Use counting principles to aid in probability calculations.
Recognize random variables and carry out calculations for them such as calculating their various moments.
Use various probability tools across different disciplines and applications.
3. Successful students will be prepared for further study in discipline-specific statistics courses.

Textbooks and Other Materials

Required Textbook:

Introduction to Probability: Models and Applications by Balakrishnan, Koutras and Politis. Available online and at the
University of Toronto Mississauga bookstore. ISBN: 9781118123348 (Print) and 9781119549345 (Online)

Additional References:

A First Course in Probability by Sheldon Ross

Mathematics of Choice: Or, How to Count Without Counting by Ivan Niven

Assessment and Deadlines

Type Description Due Date Weight
Term Test Test 1 2024-02-03 20%
Term Test Test 2 2024-03-09 20%
Quiz Quiz 1 On-going 5%
Quiz Quiz 2 On-going 5%
Quiz Quiz 3 On-going 5%
Quiz Quiz 4 On-going 5%
Final Exam TBA 40%
Total 100%

More Details for Assessment and Deadlines

Test 1:
Date: Saturday, February 3, 2024
Time: 11:10 AM - 12:25 PM
Location: IB 110
Test 2:
Date: Saturday, March 9, 2024
Time: 11:10 AM - 12:25 PM
Location: IB 110

Quiz 1:
Available From: Monday, January 22, 2024, at 10:00 AM
Available Until: Wednesday, January 24, 2024, at 10:00 AM
Time Limit: 60 Minutes
Number of Attempts: 2
Score to Keep: Best Attempt
Quiz 2:
Available From: Monday, February 12, 2024, at 10:00 AM
Available Until: Wednesday, February 14, 2024, at 10:00 AM
Time Limit: 60 Minutes
Number of Attempts: 2
Score to Keep: Best Attempt
Quiz 3:
Available From: Monday, March 4, 2024, at 10:00 AM
Available Until: Wednesday, March 6, 2024, at 10:00 AM
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 Time Limit: 60 Minutes
Number of Attempts: 2
Score to Keep: Best Attempt
Quiz 4:
Available From: Monday, March 25, 2024, at 10:00 AM
Available Until: Wednesday, March 25, 2024, at 10:00 AM
Time Limit: 60 Minutes
Number of Attempts: 2
Score to Keep: Best Attempt

Penalties for Lateness

Late submissions will not be accepted.

Procedures and Rules

Missed Term Work

Missed Quizzes:

A student who misses a quiz will receive a ZERO mark on that quiz.
NO makeup quizzes of any form are possible.
NO further adjustments will be made for missed quizzes.

For a Single Missed Test:

Students who miss ONE term test do not need to provide any documentation.
Using the ACORN absence declaration is optional and can be used only once per term. However, it is not a requirement
for this course.
No makeup test will be provided for a single missed term test.
The weight of the missed test will automatically be reallocated to the final exam. Meaning that, the final exam will weight
60% in this case.
Students are advised to refrain from sending confirmation emails in this scenario, as the weight shift is granted
automatically.

For Missing Both Tests:

If BOTH term tests are missed, a makeup test will is scheduled as follows:
Makeup Test:
Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024
Time: 11:10 AM - 12:40 PM
Location: IB 110
The makeup test will be comprehensive, coveringALL material taught in the course.
The makeup test will carry a weight of 20%. Any remaining unallocated weight (20%) from the missed term tests will be
added to the final exam. Meaning that, the final exam will weight 60% in this case.
Failure to attend the makeup test will normally result in a score of ZERO for the test. In such cases, the weight of the final
exam will be adjusted to 60%.

Missed Final Exam

Students who cannot complete their final examination due to illness or other serious causes must file an online petition within 72
hours of the missed examination. Late petitions will NOT be considered. Upon approval of a deferred exam request, a non-
refundable fee of $72 is required for each examination approved.

Academic Integrity
Academic integrity is essential to the pursuit of learning and scholarship in a university, and to ensuring that a degree from the
University of Toronto Mississauga is a strong signal of each student’s individual academic achievement. As a result, UTM treats
cases of cheating and plagiarism very seriously. The University of Toronto's Code of Behaviour on Academic Matters outlines
behaviours that constitute academic dishonesty and the process for addressing academic offences. Potential offences include, but
are not limited to:

In papers and assignments:

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 1. Using someone else's ideas or words without appropriate acknowledgement.
2. Submitting your own work in more than one course, or more than once in the same course, without the permission of the
instructor.
3. Making up sources or facts.
4. Obtaining or providing unauthorized assistance on any assignment.

On tests and exams:

1. Using or possessing unauthorized aids.

2. Looking at someone else’s answers during an exam or test.
3. Misrepresenting your identity.

In academic work:

1. Falsifying institutional documents or grades.

2. Falsifying or altering any documentation required, including (but not limited to) doctor's notes.

All suspected cases of academic dishonesty will be investigated following procedures outlined in the Code of Behaviour on
Academic Matters. If you have questions or concerns about what constitutes appropriate academic behaviour or appropriate
research and citation methods, you are expected to seek out additional information on academic integrity from your instructor or
from other institutional resources.

Informed Consent – Email Lists

As a student enrolled in this course, you understand that you are providing your implicit consent to be included in an email list for
the department to send you non-essential information from time to time. If you do not wish to be included in such an email list,
please request to be removed by contacting one of the Academic Advisors & Undergraduate Program Administrators. Their
information can be found on the MCS Website Contact Us page .

Final Exam Information

Duration: 3 hours

Additional Information
COURSE COMPONENTS

Lectures: The delivery mode for our lectures is in person. It is important toattend the lectures, and take notes. Students
will need all the lecture time and regular practice to learn the material well. Crunching before tests/exams is unlikely to be
helpful.
Tutorials: There are 11 tutorials scheduled in person in the course, which will begin onThursday, Jaunary 18, 2024. The
suggested problems posted on the course webpage will serve as appropriate preparation for the tutorial discussions.
Attending the lectures and tutorials will help students with the course material, particularly with problem-solving and the
quizzes.
Office Hours: It is recommended that you visit office hours whenever you have a question about the material. It is essential
to have material clarified as quickly as possible. Don't wait until the last minute to ask your questions.
Piazza: This is for student-led discussion. All questions about course material should be posted here or asked during
instructor/TAs office hours. The instructor and TAs will monitor the board and will help answer questions, but students are
encouraged to answer posts and help their fellow classmates.

GENERATIVE AI USE

Students may use generative AI tools like ChatGPT to supplement their understanding of course material. However, these
tools are not evaluated by the university for privacy and security, and no official guidelines or technical support will be
provided. Their use is strictly prohibited during assessments, including term tests, online quizzes, and final
examinations. Students should ensure that their academic work accurately reflects their understanding and capabilities.

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

Course materials provided on Quercus, such as lecture slides, assignments, tests and solutions are the intellectual property
of your instructor and are for the use of students currently enrolled in this course only. Providing course materials to any
person or company outside of the course is unauthorized use. This includes providing materials to predatory tutoring
companies.

EMAIL POLICY

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 Your email must originate from your University of Toronto email account when you contact your instructor by email. The
subject line must contain [STA107] and a relevant subject (indicating what the email is about). Be sure to include your full
name and student ID number in the body of the message. Before you send an email, make sure that you are not asking for
information that is already available from the course outline/website/announcements, or questions about the course material
that is more appropriate for discussion during office hours or discussion board on Piazza. In general, your instructor
cannot answer technical questions about the course material by email.

ACCESSIBILITY NEEDS

The University of Toronto Mississauga is committed to accessibility. If you require accommodations for a disability or have
any accessibility concerns about the course, the classroom, or course materials, please contact Accessibility Services as soon
as possible at http://access.utm@utoronto.ca or http://www.accessibility.utoronto.ca. Academic accommodations must be
arranged for each term of study. In addition to arranging accommodation every term, students must inform accessibility of
accommodations necessary for each and every assessment.

COURSE TOPICS

This course plans to cover Chapters 1-5 of the textbook Introduction to Probability: Models and Applications by
Balakrishnan, Koutras and Politis tentatively (the following list is NOT exhaustive):
Chapter 1 - The Concept of Probability
Section 1.1
Key Concepts: random experiment; discrete (finite and countably infinite) and continuous sample spaces;
elementary and compound events, tree diagrams
Section 1.2
Key Concepts: occurrence of an event; certain and impossible events; intersection, union, complement,
difference and symmetric difference of events; mutually exclusive events; partition of a sample space; Venn
diagrams; properties SP1-SP11 for the operations among events; De Morgan formulas
Section 1.3
Key Concepts: relative frequency and its properties; limiting relative frequency of an event; frequentist
definition of probability
Section 1.4
Key Concepts: axiomatic definition of probability and properties P1-P3; additivity property of probability
measure (both finite and countably infinite)
Section 1.5
Key Concepts: monotonicity property of probability and principle of inclusion-exclusion
Chapter 2 - Finite Sample Spaces - Combinatorial Methods
Section 2.1
Key Concepts: equiprobable events; classical definition of probability; favorable and possible outcomes
Section 2.2
Key Concepts: multiplicative principle; addition principle
Section 2.3
Key Concepts: permutations; k-element permutations; k-element permutation with repetitions
Section 2.4
Key Concepts: combinations; Pascal's triangle; different combinatorial identities; k-combination with
repetitions
Section 2.5
Key Concepts: binomial coefficients; binomial theorem
Chapter 3 - Conditional Probability and Independent Events
Section 3.1
Key Concepts: definition of conditional probability; axiomatic definition of conditional probability using
properties PC1-PC3
Section 3.2
Key Concepts: multiplicative law (chain rule) of probability
Section 3.3
Key Concepts: the law of total probability
Section 3.4
Key Concepts: Bayes' formula
Section 3.5
Key Concepts: independent events; pairwise independence; complete independence
Chapter 4 - Discrete Random Variables and Distributions
Section 4.1
Key Concepts: discrete and continuous random variables; the range of random variables
Section 4.2
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 Key Concepts: cumulative distribution functions (CDF or simply distribution functions); properties (i)-(iii)
of a CDF; jumps or discontinuities of a CDF; the plot of a CDF
Section 4.3
Key Concepts: probability mass functions (PMF or simply probability functions); properties PF1-PF3 of a
PMF; normalization constant
Section 4.4
Key Concepts: the expected value of a random variable; expectation of functions of random variables;
expectation as a linear operator
Section 4.5
Key Concepts: the variance and standard deviation of random variables
Chapter 5 - Some Important Discrete Distributions
Section 5.1
Key Concepts: Bernoulli trials; PMF, CDF, expected value and variance of Bernoulli and Binomial
distributions
Section 5.2
Key Concepts: PMF, CDF, expected value and variance of Geometric and Negative Binomial distributions
Section 5.3
Key Concepts: PMF, CDF, expected value and variance of Hypergeometric distribution
Section 5.4
Key Concepts: PMF, CDF, expected value and variance of Poisson distribution; approximating a Binomial
distribution by a Poisson distribution

Last Date to drop course from Academic Record and GPA is March 11, 2024.

Equity, Diversity and Inclusion

The University of Toronto is committed to equity, human rights and respect for diversity. All members of the learning environment
in this course should strive to create an atmosphere of mutual respect where all members of our community can express themselves,
engage with each other, and respect one another's differences. U of T does not condone discrimination or harassment against any
persons or communities.

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