The Global E-Commerce Market (September 2021)

The Global
E-commerce Market
Overview of the players - SWOT -
Benchmarking - Groups' profiles
and financial indicators
Date de publication September 2021
Principaux contributeurs Benoît Samarcq and Delphine David
Code étude 21WXDIS03
XERFI 13-15 rue de Calais, 75009 Paris, France Tél. : +33 1 53 21 81 51 Fax : +33 1 42 81 42 14 E-mail : etudes@xerfi.com Site web : www.xerfi.com (catalogue complet)
The 5 phases of Xerfi Global’s Global Markets and Competition reports
Identification of the playing field
At Xerfi Global, we believe that international classifications are not the only valid definition of a market. It
is the companies that make the sector and not vice-versa. During our first brainstorming session, we strive
to give a clear-cut definition of the scope of the report.
Identification of market leaders

During the second phase, Xerfi Global’s analysts identify the companies who will be studied in the report.
Our aim is not only to classify by total sales, but also to detect tomorrow’s movers and shakers, especially
those from emerging markets.
Identification of the main market indicators

Using the best and most up to date international sources, Xerfi Global’s experts handpick the most
relevant indicators pertaining to both supply and demand.
Identification of corporate strategies

During a further brainstorming session, the Xerfi Global team aims to decipher the main corporate
strategies and key future trends.
Identification of the key conclusions

Thanks to a final brainstorming session, drawing on the knowledge of all the members of Xerfi Global, the
main conclusions are debated and ultimately summed up in no more than a dozen slides. Concision,
precision and accurate forecasts are our main aims.
This is a collective report written Other contributors include:

under the supervision of:
Benoît Samarcq
The Global E-commerce Market - September 2021 2

Table of contents
1. Conclusions 5
1.1. Summary 6
1.2. Key slides 7
2. Market fundamentals 17
2.1. Scope of the report 18
2.2. Overview 19
2.3. Fundamentals of the e-commerce industry 21
3. The market and leaders' activity 26

3.1. Sectoral environment 27
• Overview (PESTEL analysis) 28
• Economic environment 29
• Internet repartition and usage 34
• Social networks usage 39
3.2. The global e-commerce market 40

• Global e-commerce revenues 41
• M-commerce 46
• Social commerce 48
• Best online-selling products 49
3.3. Leaders' activity and performances 52

• Revenue 53
• Operating income rate 56
• Individualised activity and performances 58

Table of contents
4. Competition and leaders' strategies 61

4.1. Competitive environment 62
• Porter's 5 Forces (Overview) 62
• Intra-sectoral competition 63
• Threat of new entrants 64
• Influence of public authorities 65
• Bargaining power of customers and suppliers 66
4.2. Leaders' strategies 67

• Overview 68
• Technology investments 68
• Customer loyalty 70
• Omnichannel strategies 72
• Creating synergies with social networks 73
• Strengthening logistics services 75
• Online sales of consumer products 78
5. Sources 79
6. Annexes 83

1. Conclusions

1.1. Summary
Major trends 2021-2023
• The pandemic clearly spurred the integration of e-commerce into consumers' buying habits. A large part of
them will adopt these new habits for the long term out of convenience, especially since traditional retailers
considerably strengthened their cross-channel solutions (click & collect, drives, etc.). In this context, the
growth rate of the global BtoC e-commerce of goods will remain significant between now and 2023 (+12%
per year on average ).
• M-commerce will continue to grow in upcoming years and will generate more than 75% of global
e-commerce sales by 2023. It is worth noting that the growth in online sales will be concentrated in Asia for
the most part, where the penetration rate of m-commerce is the highest in the world. More generally, this
trend will affect all regions of the world, driven by the rapid deployment of mobile broadband.
• Fashion and beauty products were still the best selling online goods worldwide in 2020 (€583bn sales).
However, consumer goods have shown the strongest growth last year (+41% in value). In this market, the
growth potential of e-commerce is considerable. The main leaders are constantly strengthening their
partnerships with food retailing giants in order to reinforce their positions on the market.
• Technological innovation remains at the heart of e-commerce leaders' investment strategies, whether it is
to improve the shopping experience (offer personalisation, customer advice, delivery times, etc.) or to offer
more added value to sellers (personalised reporting tools, consumer targeting, stock optimisation, etc.).

1.2. Key slides Evolution of global e-commerce revenue
Record growth for global e-commerce in 2020

Evolution of global BtoC e-commerce revenue (2008-2023)
Global e-commerce revenue (€bn) Annual variation (%)
6 000 30%
5 000
4 000 20%
3 000
2 000 10%
1 000
0 0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Processing: Xerfi Global, / Source: eMarketer
Global BtoC e-commerce experienced unprecedented growth (+25.7%) and reached €3,700bn revenue in 2020. The Covid-19
pandemic and the various measures that have been implemented by governments to try to curb its spread (lockdowns, closures
of non-essential stores, etc.) led to a massive shift in consumption towards online sales. This dynamic has also been supported
by the acceleration of investments from traditional e-commerce retailers (click & collect, drives, etc.). These initiatives will
continue to drive the growth of global e-commerce in upcoming months. At the same time, the continued deployment of
mobile broadband networks will increase the share of online shoppers, particularly in emerging countries. In this context, global
e-commerce sales will reach €5,400bn in 2023.

1.2. Key slides The rise of m-commerce
M-commerce now generates 70% of global e-commerce

Global m-commerce revenue
Units: billion euros, % of weight in value
M-commerce turnover (G scale) Weight in e-commerce (D scale)

5 000 100%
The weight of global m-commerce
will continue to grow in the short
term, with a compound annual
4 000 80%
growth rate of 15% between 2021
and 2023, according to our forecasts.
It will then reach €4,700bn in revenue,
or 76% of global e-commerce. 3 000 60%
Over the next few years The sustained
growth of e-commerce in Asia, the
region with the highest penetration
rate of global m-commerce, will 2 000 40%
logically spur mobile online sales.
On a larger scale, this trend will
eventually spread throughout the
whole world. 1 000 20%
0 0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021p 2022p 2023p
Processing and forecasts: Xerfi Global, / Source: eMarketer

1.2. Key slides Leaders' combined consolidated revenue
Leaders' revenue quadrupled since 2014

Combined consolidated revenue of the world's leading e-commerce companies (*)
Unit: billions of euros
600 567
Between 2014 and 2020, the leading
e-commerce leaders' consolidated
revenues grew by an average of 500
29.1% a year. They increased even
faster in 2020, due to the impact of 421
the crisis on consumers' purchasing 400
behaviour. Thus, their consolidated 345
sales increased by nearly €150bn over
one year, which represents an
absolute growth twice as high as that 300 268
of the previous years.
202
It should be noted, however, that this 200
indicator underestimates the real 158
increase in their business volume in 129
recent years. In fact, the business 100
volume of leaders' marketplaces
increased even further.
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NB: some groups close their accounts during the year

(*) Excluding Pinduoduo, Walmart and Wish / Xerfi Global processing / Source: operators' financial reports

1.2. Key slides Online sales by product category
Fashion and beauty products are the best selling online goods worldwide
Main product categories sold online worldwide in 2020

Unit: trillion euros
Fashion and beauty products 583,2
Toys and leisure items 460,5
Consumer electronics 439,7
Food and consumer products 362,6
Furniture and household appliances 289,9
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Processing: Xerfi Global / Source: Statista Market Outlooks (2020 data)

1.2. Key slides E-commerce revenue by region
Asia accounts for more than half of global e-commerce

E-commerce revenue throughout the world in 2020
Unit: % of global e-commerce sales
Europe
North America
17.5%
20.4%
Asia Pacific
59.1%
Africa
0.5%
Latin America
2.5%
Source: Xerfi Global, based on eMarketer, 2020 data

1.2. Key slides Rankings by business volume
Global e-commerce is dominated by Chinese groups

Ranking of the groups analysed according to their business volume in online sales (2020)
Unit: million euros
Alibaba group 1 028
Amazon 450
JD.com 270
Pinduoduo 120
eBay 88
Rakuten 85
Walmart 80
Wish 11
Zalando 11
Otto group 10
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200
Xerfi Global processing / Source: operators' financial reports

1.2. Key slides Leaders' performances
The Covid-19 crisis spurred e-commerce giants' activity

Key performance indicators and growth drivers of leading e-commerce companies
AVERAGE EBIT
CONSOLI- CAGR EBIT RATE
COMPANY RATE KEY DRIVERS OF GROWTH AND PROFIT
DATED SALES 2015-2020 2020
(2015-2020)
• Alibaba increased its revenue by a factor of 7 since 2015, a growth

supported by the surge of e-commerce in China, the development of
international activities (AliExpress and Lazada) and in the field of cloud
ALIBABA 90 794 M€
+48.0% 11.8% 18.2% services.
GROUP (31/03/2021)
• Alibaba 's EBIT ratio deteriorated significantly since 2015, from 30.8%
to 11.8% of sales at the end of March 2021, due to the huge amount of
investments made by the group.
• In 2020, Amazon's revenues grew (+37.6%), boosted by the very clear

acceleration of global e-commerce since the beginning of the Covid-19
crisis.
338 274 M€
AMAZON +29.3% 5.9% 4.6% • Amazon's EBIT rate has been trending upwards in recent years and
(2020)
stood at 5.9% of sales in 2020. In particular, the group is beginning to
reap the benefits of the success of its AWS cloud services, which are
more profitable than its online sales activities.
• JD.com's revenue quadrupled since 2015. The group took full

advantage of the surge in e-commerce in China over the period and of
94 755 M€ its partnership with Walmart in China.
JD.COM +32.7% 1.7% 0.4%
(2020) • JD.com's EBIT rate remained very low in 2020 (1.7%), still weighed
down by the need to massively invest in its logistics capacity to support
its growth.
Ranking by business volume / Xerfi Global processing / Source: Xerfi Global, based on operators and trade press

Their economic performances are hampered by colossal investments...

AVERAGE EBIT
DATED SALES 2015-2020 2020
(2015-2020)
• Pinduoduo's revenue grew from just €64m in 2016 to nearly €7.6bn in

2020.
7 558 M€ +229.6% • The group's EBIT rate remained largely negative in 2020
PINDUODUO -15.8% -28.2% (*)
(2020) (*) (-15,8%). Pinduoduo's marketplace is charging very low fees. In addition,
the group is weighed down by its massive support plan for Chinese
farmers.
• On average, eBay's revenue just barely increased over the medium

term compared with the dynamics of global e-commerce.
EBAY 9 000 M€ • The group significantly improved its EBIT rate since 2019, thanks in
(2020)
+3.6% 26.4% 24.0%
particular to the refocusing of its business on its marketplace, which is
more profitable than its classified ads business.
• Rakuten's revenue grew by 15.2% in 2020, a pace close to what was

11 953 M€ observed over the medium term.
RAKUTEN +15.3% -6.4% 7.5%
(2020) • Rakuten's EBIT rate plunged from 15.5% in 2018 to -6.4% in 2020 due
to its massive investments in 5G mobile network development.
• The group's revenue increased slightly faster in 2020 (+6.8%), driven by

482 727 M€ strong growth in its online sales.
WALMART +2.9% 4.1% 4.3%
(31/01/2021) • The group's EBIT rate remained relatively stable over the average
period.
Ranking by business volume / (*) CAGR and average EBIT rate 2016-2020 / Xerfi Global processing / Source: Xerfi Global, based on operators and trade press

... in new technologies and logistics

AVERAGE EBIT
DATED SALES 2015-2020 2020
(2013-2018)
• Strong revenue growth in 2020 (+33.7%), supported by the surge in

e-commerce worldwide.
WISH 2 226 M€ • The group's EBIT rate is very largely negative (-24.8% in 2020). To
(2020)
nd -24.8% nd
support its growth, the group must invest significant amounts in
advertising.
• The group's sales jumped by 23.1% in 2020. Zalando benefited from

the dynamism of e-commerce since the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis,
ZALANDO 7 982 M€ despite the erosion of demand for fashion items.
(2020)
+22.0% 4.6% 3.7%
• The EBIT rate increased for the second consecutive year, reaching 4.6%
of sales in 2020.
• Otto Group's sales grew steadily in 2020 (+9.7%).

15 641 M€
OTTO GROUP +5.3% 4.4% 2.9% • The strong growth of its revenues enabled the group to improve its
(28/02/2021)
economic performance, with an EBIT rate up by 1.4 points in 2020.

1.2. Key slides Main development axes
E-merchants' strategies are centered around technological innovation

Main development axes for e-commerce players
Omnichannel strategies
 Store openings
 Partnerships with partner brands
Customer loyalty Develop the FMCG offer

 Subscription packages  Partnerships with major retailers
 Additional services and content
 Cash back system
Development
axes for
e-commerce
groups
Invest in technology Strengthen logistics services
 Improve the shopping experience and the  Automation of logistics platforms
effectiveness of recommendations and  Launch of new delivery methods
promotional offers
 Use of big data and AI
Synergies with social networks

 Partnerships with social networks
Source: Xerfi Global

2. Market fundamentals

2.1. The scope of the study
The global e-commerce market
E-commerce refers to all purchases of goods and services made online. The order can then be delivered to
Definition the customer's home, to a collection point or picked up directly from a point of sale operated by the e-
merchant.
Three types of players are involved in e-commerce:

- Pure players in online sales operate one or more online sales sites and do not possess physical stores.
Among them, two business models stand out: direct sales (the pure player owns the goods it resells) and
the marketplace (the platform acts as a trusted third party between sellers and buyers and manages the
Groups' profiles
transaction in return for a commission on the sale);
- Traditional catalogue-based mail-order retailers who launched their own online sales site;
- Click & mortar are traditional retailers who operate both a network of points of sale and an online sales
site.
The report conducted by Xerfi Global covers BtoC e-commerce operators worldwide, regardless of their
Scope of the report profile (pure player, traditional catalogue-based or click & mortar). Online platforms selling services (Airbnb,
Booking, etc.) and BtoB e-merchants are therefore excluded from our scope.
Clients E-commerce is aimed at all individual clients.

2.2. Overview Key figures of the sector
Global e-commerce generated revenues of €3,700bn in 2020
€3,700bn The global e-commerce revenue in 2020, including €2,910bn through mobile.
+25.7% The growth rate of global e-commerce in 2020.
18% The weight of e-commerce in total retail trade in 2020.
59.3% The share e-commerce sales made in Asia-Pacific in 2020.
+41% The growth rate of FMCG online sales in 2020, a market that is one of the main drivers for e-commerce.
Source: Xerfi Global, based on eMarketer

2.2. Overview Key characteristics and sector trends
E-commerce is revolutionising the buying process

The weight of marketplaces in global e-commerce has been growing steadily in recent years. Widely
adopted by the Chinese leaders in online sales (Alibaba, JD.com and Pinduoduo), this business model is
also favoured by Amazon. By opening up its platform to a multitude of sellers, it allows the group to
The rise of marketplaces offer an wide range of products without having to use the funds allocated to stock acquisition. Another
major advantage of marketplaces is that by monetising its audience and various services with third-
party sellers, they allow for the generation of more comfortable margins without being directly affected
by the online price war.
Asia alone generates nearly 60% of global e-commerce. This weight is largely explained by the
importance of e-commerce in China. With a revenue of €1,239bn in 2020, it is the world's largest e-
Asia accounts for more than half commerce market, far ahead of the United States. It must be said that China can count on a colossal
of global e-commerce domestic market. More recent than the American and European markets, Chinese e-commerce has also
developed directly via mobile phones, a medium that allows e-commerce to be fully integrated into
consumers' daily shopping habits.
The global e-commerce market for goods is still dominated by online sales of beauty and fashion
products (€583bn in revenue in 2020), ahead of toys and leisure articles (€460bn) and consumer
electronics (€440bn). After rapidly gaining market share from traditional retailers in the capital goods
Online FMCG sales as a key sector, web players are now increasingly turning their attention to the FMCG market. This market offers
growth driver considerable growth potential due to its weight in household spending and constitutes a powerful lever
for loyalty (very high purchase frequency). The main leaders in the sector are therefore constantly
multiplying their partnerships food retailing giants to strengthen their positions on this market.
In parallel, large food retailers made e-commerce one of their main development axes.

2.3. Fundamentals of the e-commerce industry Profiles of online retailers
E-commerce, an essential sales channel for all retailers

Overview of the different profiles of actors involved in e-commerce
Three categories of players are involved in

e-commerce. Pure players, generate most of
global online sales. These groups (Amazon,
Alibaba, etc.) designed their business model
for online sales, but some of them are now
deploying their own sales outlets. Click & Pure players
mortar regroups traditional retail chains Click & mortar
that opened a merchant website, such as Online sales specialists
Walmart. Lastly, the mail order retailers are Traditional "physical"
historically present in distance selling, retailers who launched
whose catalogue sales, telephone sales or a merchant site
teleshopping are gradually being replaced
by their online sales. In the end, the
differences between these three categories
tend to dwindle due to the synergies Mail order
developed by operators between physical
and online commerce (click & collect
retailers
systems, e-booking, etc.).
Mail order specialists
who launched an
e-commerce site

2.3. Fundamentals of the e-commerce industry The different business models of online sales sites
Marketplaces are becoming the dominant model

Overview of the main business models of online sales sites
Main e-commerce business models
Standard e-commerce Marketplaces Grouped purchases

sites Private sales
They bring together buyers These are products offered
and sellers and act as a at significant discounts,
trusted third party These platforms offer event- provided that a sufficient
(transaction management). based sales, with limited number of buyers are
Digital version of physical availability and stock.
commerce. Operators sell The operator is paid by reached, or products whose
taking a commission on These are generally price drops proportionally
previously purchased clearance products.
products via their site. each transaction. with the number of buyers.
The first online retailers expanded by duplicating the traditional retail business model for e-commerce. They used to manage
their inventory before reselling it to consumers. Then in the 2000s, the leaders in the sector launched their own marketplaces,
such as Amazon. This model allows to capitalise on powerful network effects by referencing a maximum number of sellers, and
therefore offers, thus reinforcing the attractiveness of the platform and its audience without having to meet significant
inventory management needs. This model, which has been widely embraced by Chinese online retailers (Alibaba, JD.com, etc.),
has also gradually been adopted by all the e-commerce giants. It should be noted that an online sales site can adopt a hybrid
business model, combining own sales, marketplace or private sales.

2.3. Fundamentals of the e-commerce industry Types of products and services
Online retailers offer an increasing range of services

Main products and services offered by online sales sites
Online sales sites
Payment and financial Advertising and

Marketplaces Fulflilment Cloud services
services marketing solutions
Consumer goods Online payment solutions

Online storage, data
Storage, shipping and Online advertising, sales
Retail services (price processing, website and
Consumer credit management of orders trends and traffic analysis
comparison) application development,
returned by customers for each product sheet, etc.
etc.
Multimedia content (films,
Free split payment options
series, music, etc.)

2.3. Fundamentals of the e-commerce industry Types of products and services
E-commerce retailers rely on multiple different suppliers

Overview of major suppliers for online retailers
Manufacturers, traders,
Producers, publishers, etc.
retailers
Goods and services for Multimedia

resale content
Simplified
CUSTOMER
e-commerce SUPPLY TRANSACTIONS SHIPMENT
SERVICE
value chain
Software, platforms, website

management, etc.
IT services and digital

solutions providers
Financial services specialists

and logistics companies

2.3. Fundamentals of the e-commerce industry Leader profiles
Marketplaces' stranghehold intensifies

Overview of the e-commerce leaders analysed in this report
In terms of business volume, global Consolidated Online business

Country of
e-commerce is now dominated by the COMPANY sales volume
origin
Chinese giants, led by Alibaba Group. (year) (year)
These players can rely on a colossal 90 794 M€ €1,028bn
ALIBABA GROUP
domestic market and especially very (03/2021) (03/2021)
largely turned to e-commerce. Right
AMAZON 338 274 M€ ≈ €450bn
away, these groups exclusively relied on (2020) (2020)
the development of marketplaces, a
JD.COM 94 755 M€ ≈ €270bn
model that has now been adopted by (2020) (2020)
almost all of the world's online sales
7 558 M€ ≈ €120bn
leaders, including both pure players and PINDUODUO
(2020) (2020)
click & mortar. This is another major
advantage that enabled these groups to EBAY 9 000 M€ €88bn
(2020) (2020)
post high growth rates in recent years.
It should be noted that unlike Chinese RAKUTEN 11 953 M€ ≈ €85bn
(2020) (2020)
e-commerce retailers, other leaders in
the sector have a more internationalised 482 724 M€ ≈ €80bn
WALMART
activity, such as Amazon, which remains (01/2021) (01/2021)
the world's leader in terms of revenue.
WISH 2 226 M€ ≈ €11bn
(2020) (2020)
ZALANDO 7 982 M€ €10.7bn

(2020) (2020)
OTTO GROUP 15 641 M€ ≈ €10bn

(02/2020) (02/2020)

3. The market
and leaders' activity

3.1. Sectoral
environment

3.1.1. Overview PESTEL analysis
The pandemic accelerated the rise of e-commerce

PESTEL analysis of the global e-commerce environment
POSITIVE NEGATIVE IMPACT
P
• Stricter financial regulation
OLITICAL
• Government support for the
development of e-commerce
• Rise of national protectionism, risk of
trade conflicts
- +
E
• Rise of disposable income in many
CONOMIC
countries
• Growth of the middle class
• Exchange rate fluctuations - +
S OCIAL
• Popularisation of digital
processes
in buying • Stores remain pivotal for customer's
shopping experience - +
T
• Rise of the artificial intelligence (offer • Ensuring the security of online
ECHNOLOGICAL
personalisation,
logistics, etc.)
optimisation of transactions is a constant challenge to
maintain consumer trust
- +
E NVIRONMENTAL
• Debate on the ecological impact of
e-commerce - +
L EGAL
• Strengthening of the laws regarding
consumer data protection - +

3.1.2. Economic environment Global GDP
Sustained rebound in global GDP as the crisis ends

Global GDP growth (2007-2022f)
Units: % of annual change at constant exchange rates
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f
Processing, estimates and forecasts Xerfi Global / Source: Feri
After a historic decline in 2020 (-3.8%), global GDP heads towards a strong rebound in 2021 (+5.3% according to our estimates),
primarily driven by a dynamic growth in the US and East Asia. Should the health situation normalise, growth will remain strong
in 2022 (+3.9%), due to a favourable comparison with the periods of lockdown that will have affected FY 2021, particularly in
Europe and in certain emerging countries (Brazil and especially India). Xerfi's forecasts include the first signs of a slowdown in
recovery in China and the positive effects of the stimulus plans announced by the Biden administration on GDP growth in the
United States. They also assume that economic activity in Europe will normalise from the second half of 2021. The rebound
expected for 2021-2022 should bring global GDP back above its pre-crisis level (by about 5%).

3.1.2. Economic environment GDP by region
Europe is the region that suffered the most from the crisis
GDP by region (2017-2022f)
Units: % of annual change at constant exchange rates
Northern America Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Latin America

and Caribbean
GDP PIB GDP GDP GDP

8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
-2% -2% -2% -2% -2%
-4% -4% -4% -4% -4%
-6% -6% -6% -6% -6%
-8% -8% -8% -8% -8%
2021f
2022f
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021f
2022f
2021f
2022f
2017
2018
2019
2020
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021f
2022f
2017
2018
2019
2020
2019
2021f
2022f
2017
2018
2020
Processing, estimates and forecasts Xerfi Global / Source: Feri
After several years of growth, the Covid-19 crisis caused GDP to plunge into recession in all regions of the world. Europe has
been hit the hardest, with a 6.9% drop in GDP in 2020. The sanitary restrictions (lockdowns, closure of non-essential businesses,
etc.) have been among the longest worldwide and therefore weighed heavily on economic activity. In addition, tourism has
been one of the industries most affected by the crisis, and by a long chalk, which further penalised Europe, the world's leading
destination for tourism. All regions of the world will return to growth by 2021. The rebound will be particularly strong in North
America, following the very ambitious recovery plan implemented by the United States.

3.1.2. Economic environment The rise of the middle class
The growing middle class will boost retail

Share of the middle class (2018-2030f)
Unit: number of people in millions
2018 2030f
6 000
5 300
The middle class accounts for the bulk
of global retail sales. It is expected to 5 000
more than double over the 2018-2030
period, to 5.3bn people worldwide,
the majority of which in Asia-Pacific. 4 000
3 590
This dynamism will support all retail
activities, including e-commerce. 3 160
Among the sector's leaders, the 3 000
Chinese giants (Alibaba, JD.com, etc.) 2 300
should take advantage of the very
strong growth of the Chinese middle 2 000
class to strengthen their leadership.
1 000 630
450
200 300
0
Poor Vulnerable people Middle class Wealthy
Source and forecast: Brookings

3.1.2. Economic environment Global retail sales (1/2)
Retail trade to exceed pre-crisis levels by 2021

Global retail sales
After a first deceleration in 2019 Units: trillion euros, CAGR in %.
(+1.3%), driven by the slowdown of
global economic growth, revenue from
retail sales fell by 2.5% in 2020. 30
This unprecedented decline is a direct
consequence of the Covid-19 crisis.
However, it was relatively moderate
compared to the decline in global GDP
(-3.8%). It is worth noting that almost 25 24,2
all the governments of developed 23,1
countries quickly implemented several 22,0
21,0 21,3
measures to preserve households' 20,7
20,4
purchasing power, such as short-time
20 19,0
working in many European countries
(France, Germany, the United 18,1
17,3
Kingdom, Italy, etc.) and household 16,5
vouchers in the United States.
These measures will contribute to a 15
strong recovery of retail trade from
2021 (+6%).
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020f 2021f 2022f
Processing and estimates by Xerfi Global / Source: eMarketer

3.1.2. Economic environment Global retail sales (2/2)
Asia strengthens its position as the largest retail market

Share of global retail trade revenue by region
Unit: % share of world retail trade by value
Asia-Pacific North America

Western Europe Latin America
Eastern Europe Middle East & Africa
3% 5% 6%
8% 8% 8%
8% 8%
37% 8%
40% 41%
2014 2017e 2019e
20% 17% 16%
24% 22% 21%
Source: Xerfi Global, based on eMarketer

3.1.3. Internet repartition and usage Internet access around the world
The number of Internet users doubled since 2010

Internet users worldwide (2005-2019)
Units: million people, penetration rate in %.
Internet users (L. scale) Internet market penetration rate worldwide (R. scale)
4 000 60%
3 000 45%
2 000 30%
1 000 15%
0 0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Xerfi Global processing / Source: ITU (International Telecommunications Union)
The number of Internet users worldwide reached 4 billion in 2019 and almost quadrupled compared to 2005. Over the past
decade, the number of Internet users worldwide grew by an average of almost 10% per year, driven mainly by the rapid increase
in connectivity for the Asia-Pacific region and, to a lesser extent, other emerging regions. Ultimately, more than half of the
world's population has access to the Internet (compared to 16.8% in 2005), which logically spurs e-commerce.

3.1.3. Internet repartition and usage Internet penetration rate by country
The Internet has been fully adopted in the world's major economies
Share of individuals using the Internet by country (2019)
Unit: share in % of total population
South Korea 96%

United Kingdom 93%
Populations in the major developed
countries widely adopted the Internet, Canada 93%
with more than 80% of users across Japan 91%
all age groups. At the same time, the
Spain 91%
Internet penetration rate in emerging
countries is rapidly catching up. 83% United States 88%
of France and Russia's population Germany 88%
were using the Internet in 2019,
compared to only 70% in Brazil and Australia 87%
Mexico. It is worth noting that more France 83%
than half of the Chinese were using Russia 83%
the Internet in 2017, a proportion that
increased significantly since that date. Italy 74%
The increase in the number of Internet Brazil 70%
users is a powerful growth driver for Mexico 70%
e-commerce.
China (*) 54%
India 20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
(*) data from 2017 / Source: ITU

3.1.3. Internet repartition and usage Internet usage : mobile vs. computer
Users now mostly access Internet through mobile

Global Internet usage by type of device (2009-2021)
Unit: % share of global Internet traffic
Computers Smartphones + Tablets

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Xerfi Global processing / Source: StatCounter, last available data 07/2021
According to StatCounter, a web analytics specialist, smartphones and tablets became the main media for connecting to the
Internet since 2016, ahead of computers. This trend is largely explained by the strong increase in the share of the population
equipped with smartphones in all regions of the world. Moreover, while computers are still slightly ahead of mobiles for
connecting to the Internet in most developed countries, smartphones are far ahead of them in emerging ones. In those regions
of the world where the wired Internet network does not cover the entire territory, the arrival of 4G made it possible to connect a
large part of the population quickly and cheaply, thus promoting mobile Internet access. In this context, the development of
mobile applications and responsive or mobile-first websites has become essential for e-commerce players.

3.1.3. Internet repartition and usage Internet usage : mobile vs. computer
Mobile is more predominant in developing countries

Global Internet usage by medium in 2021
Unit: % share of Internet traffic by region in July 2021
Europe
Northern America
Asia
50,4%
52,8% 49,6%
47,2%
65,3%
34,7%
Computer Mobile
Computer Mobile
Africa Computer Mobile
Latin America Oceania
69,4%
30,6%
48,4% 46,5%
51,6% 53,5%
Computer Mobile
Computer Mobile Computer Mobile

Xerfi Global processing / Source: StatCounter

3.1.3. Internet repartition and usage Deployment of mobile broadband
Mobile broadband has been growing rapidly since 2015
Population covered by mobile Internet networks

Units: % share of
3G Networks 4G/LTE networks
100% 100%
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Xerfi Global processing / Source: ITU (International Telecommunications Union)
The deployment of very high speed mobile Internet networks started in the early 2010s in developed countries, before
spreading to the rest of the world. While only 43.4% of the world's population was covered by a 4G/LTE network in 2015, this
proportion almost doubled in 5 years, to reach 84.7% in 2020. This development was instrumental to support the growth of
m-commerce. 4G/LTE networks offer a bandwidth more than 10 times higher than that of 3G, which allows users to benefit from
the same comfort of use as with fibre.

3.1.4. Social networks usage The main social networks
Facebook remains the world's leading social network

Rankings of social networks by number of active users in 2021
Unit: million users
Social networks usage in the world Facebook

has been steadily increasing in recent Youtube
years, a phenomenon that became
WhatsApp
even more pronounced since the start
of the Covid-19 pandemic. In January Messenger (*)
2021, 4.2 billion people, or about 54% Instagram
of the world's population, were using
WeChat
one or more social networks, a
number that has jumped by 13% in TikTok
one year. The several lockdowns QQ
implemented from spring 2020
Douyin (*)
onwards encouraged Internet users to
turn massively towards social Sina Weibo
networks to maintain social links with Telegram
their family and friends.
Snapchat
Facebook, Youtube and WhatsApp are
by far the most popular social Kuaishou
networks in the world, with at least 2 Pinterest
billion users each. Reddit (*)
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000
Source: Hootsuite via DaraReportal, January 2021 data / (*) January 2020 data

3.2. The global
e-commerce market
40
3.2.1. Global e-commerce revenue Evolution of global e-commerce revenue
Record growth for global e-commerce in 2020

Evolution of global BtoC e-commerce revenue (2008-2023)
Global e-commerce revenue (€bn) Annual variation (%)
6 000 30%
5 000
4 000 20%
3 000
2 000 10%
1 000
0 0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Global BtoC e-commerce experienced unprecedented growth (+25.7%) and reached €3,700bn revenue in 2020. The Covid-19
pandemic and the various measures that have been implemented by governments to try to curb its spread (lockdowns, closures
of non-essential stores, etc.) led to a massive shift in consumption towards online sales. This dynamic has also been supported
by the acceleration of investments by traditional e-commerce retailers (click & collect, drives, etc.). These initiatives will continue
to drive the growth of global e-commerce in upcoming months. At the same time, the continued deployment of mobile
broadband networks will increase the share of online shoppers, particularly in emerging countries. In this context, global e-
commerce sales will reach €5,400bn in 2023.

3.2.1. Global e-commerce revenue Weight of e-commerce in retail trade
The weight of e-commerce has jumped in 2020

Global retail revenue and the weight of e-commerce
Units: trillions of euros, value share in %.
Revenue from retail trade Share of e-commerce

The Covid-19 crisis marked a turning 25 50%
point for the share of e-commerce in
consumer shopping habits around the
world. In just one year, e-commerce
retail sales rose from 14% to 18%. 20 40%
Despite the easing of health
restrictions and the reopening of
almost all sales outlets in 2021, the
weight of e-commerce will continue 15 30%
to grow in upcoming years. Indeed, 22%
new cyber-buyers will adopt this sales
channel for convenience purposes. 18%
10 20%
Besides, because the crisis accelerated
the investments of traditional retailers 12%
in e-commerce (click & collect, drives,
etc.), which made cross-channel 5 6% 10%
purchases more popular.
0 0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f

3.2.1. Global e-commerce revenue E-commerce revenue by region (1/2)
Asia accounts for more than half of global e-commerce

E-commerce revenue throughout the world in 2020
Unit: % of global e-commerce sales
Europe
North America
17.5%
20.4%
Asia Pacific
59.1%
Africa
0.5%
Latin America
2.5%
Source: Xerfi Global, based on eMarketer, 2020 data

3.2.1. Global e-commerce revenue E-commerce revenue by region (2/2)
China and the United States are the two largest markets
Main e-commerce markets for BtoC goods
Unit: billion euros
1400
1 239
1200
1000
800
694
600
400
200 114 100 91 84 60 44 27 23 20 19 18 17

0
Processing: Xerfi Global / Sources: eMarketer, BEVH, Fevad, ecomercedb

3.2.1. Global e-commerce revenue Share of online shoppers by country
The pandemic increased the share of online shoppers throughout the world
Share of e-shoppers by country in 2020
Unit: share of population aged 16-64
100%
90%
80% 76,8%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Processing: Xerfi Global / Source: Globalwebindex (Q3 2020)

3.2.2. M-commerce The rise of m-commerce (1/2)
Mobile devices account for more than half of all online transactions
Device used for online shopping by region (2018)
Units: % of online transactions
Mobile Internet Mobile app Wired Internet
Purchases from mobile devices

(smartphones and tablets) now
account for the majority of online Asia-Pacific
transactions by volume. Their share is
particularly high in Asia, where more
than two-thirds of online sales are Middle East
generated from a mobile device.
The dynamics of m-commerce can be
explained mainly by the rapid roll out
of ultra-broadband mobile networks North America
(4G/LTE) in recent years. The evolution
of purchasing habits also favours the
m-commerce. Consumers increasingly
shifted towards online sales for daily Europe
purchases. This trend contributes to
the increase in the number of online
transactions from mobile devices.
Latin America
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

3.2.2. M-commerce The rise of m-commerce (2/2)
M-commerce now generates 70% of global e-commerce

Global m-commerce revenue
Units: billion euros, % of weight in value
M-commerce turnover (G scale) Weight in e-commerce (D scale)

5 000 100%
The weight of global m-commerce
will continue to grow in the short
term, with a compound annual
4 000 80%
growth rate of 15% between 2021
and 2023, according to our forecasts.
It will then reach €4,700bn in revenue,
or 76% of global e-commerce. 3 000 60%
Over the next few years The sustained
growth of e-commerce in Asia, the
region with the highest penetration
rate of global m-commerce, will 2 000 40%
logically spur mobile online sales.
On a larger scale, this trend will
eventually spread throughout the
whole world. 1 000 20%
0 0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021p 2022p 2023p
Processing and forecasts: Xerfi Global, / Source: eMarketer

3.2.3. Social commerce The rise of social commerce
The rise of social commerce in China and the United States

Social commerce revenue in China Social commerce revenue in the United States
Unit: billions of euros Unit: billions of euros
400 400
+45%
308,46
300 300
212,64
200 200
100 100 +36%

23,62 32,12
0 0
2020 2021f 2020 2021f
Source and forecast: eMarketer Source and forecast: eMarketer
Because of their very high audience and high level of engagement, social networks have been essential platforms for
e-commerce since their inception. At first, they were mainly leveraged by brands and e-merchants to gain visibility through
content publication and advertisement broadcasting. Then, many brands started relying on their own customers and influencers
to recommend their products. Nowadays, an additionnal feature has been integrated by several social networks: transactions.
The Chinese market is a pioneer in this field, with an estimated revenue of €212.6bn in 2020, i.e. already more than 15% of
Chinese e-commerce, and several social networks that are very active in this field, such as WeChat.

3.2.4. Best-selling online products Online sales by product category (1/2)
Fashion and beauty products are the best selling online goods worldwide
Main product categories sold online worldwide in 2020

Unit: trillion euros
Fashion and beauty products 583,2
Toys and leisure items 460,5
Consumer electronics 439,7
Food and consumer products 362,6
Furniture and household appliances 289,9
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

3.2.4. Best-selling online products Online sales by product category (2/2)
Online FMCG sales grew at a record pace in 2020

Evolution of online sales by product category in the world in 2020
Unit: % of annual changes in value
Food and consumer products 41%
Fashion and beauty products 27%
Toys and leisure items 25%
Furniture and household appliances 20%
Consumer electronics 18%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

All of the products sold online experienced strong growth in 2020, due to the prolonged closures of many retail outlets in
several countries around the world, travel restrictions and the many initiatives of traditional retailers to boost their online sales.
However in 2020, global e-commerce was especially marked by the unprecedented growth in online sales of food and
consumer products (+41%). Even though this type of outlet mostly remained open since the beginning of the pandemic, many
households shifted to online sales sites for their daily purchases to limit the risk of being exposed to Covid-19 in stores.

3.2.4. Best-selling online products The rise of online sales of FMCG products
FMCG e-commerce is already very popular in China and South Korea
The Covid-19 crisis has given a very Weight of e-commerce in FMCG sales
clear boost to the rise of online sales Unit: % of sales by value
of consumer goods (food, hygiene,
cleaning).
China 25,0%
In China, one out of five FMCG
products is now sold online. This South Korea 24,4%
makes the country the largest online
Taiwan 11,4%
FMCG market in the world by a long
chalk. The United States is also a major United Kingdom 11,4%
market in terms of value, although
E-commerce will still only generate France 8,3%
4.1% of total FMCG sales in 2020, a Japan 8,1%
much lower proportion than in the UK
(11.4%), France (8.3%) or Japan (8.1%). United States 4,1%
Whether it is still emerging or already Russia 3,7%
growing strongly, online sales of FMCG
products have significant growth Spain 3,5%
potential and are becoming a major
Italy 3,2%
strategic development area for online
sales and mass retail operators. Germany 2,1%
Brazil 0,3%
India 0,3%
Mexico 0,3%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Source: Kantar, "Winning Omnichannel", 2020 data

3.3. Leaders' activity
and performances

3.3.1. Revenue Leaders' combined consolidated revenue
Leaders' revenue quadrupled since 2014

Combined consolidated revenue of the world's leading e-commerce companies (*)
Unit: billions of euros
600 567
Between 2014 and 2020, the leading
e-commerce leaders' consolidated
revenues grew by an average of 500
29.1% a year. They increased even
faster in 2020, due to the impact of 421
the crisis on consumers' purchasing 400
behaviour. Thus, their consolidated 345
sales increased by nearly €150bn over
one year, which represents an
absolute growth twice as high as that 300 268
of the previous years.
202
It should be noted, however, that this 200
indicator underestimates the real 158
increase in their business volume in 129
recent years. In fact, the business 100
volume of leaders' marketplaces
increased even further.
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NB: some groups close their accounts during the year

(*) Excluding Pinduoduo, Walmart and Wish / Xerfi Global processing / Source: operators' financial reports

3.3.1. Revenue Rankings by business volume
Global e-commerce is dominated by Chinese groups

Ranking of the groups analysed according to their business volume in online sales (2020)
Unit: million euros
Alibaba group 1 028
Amazon 450
JD.com 270
Pinduoduo 120
eBay 88
Rakuten 85
Walmart 80
Wish 11
Zalando 11
Otto group 10
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200

3.3.1. Revenue Rankings by revenue growth rate
Chinese leaders are the most dynamic over the average period
Revenue compound annual growth rate by group (2015-2020)

Unit: CAGR 2015-2020 in %, growth rate in 2020
Average 2015-2020 2020
Pinduoduo (*)
Alibaba
JD.com
Amazon
Zalando
Otto Group
eBay
Walmart
Wish (**)
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
(*) Average CAGR 2016-2020 / (**) History not available / Xerfi Global processing / Source: operators' financial reports

3.3.2. Operating income rate Leaders' aggregate EBIT rate
Change in the aggregate EBIT rate over the average period

Aggregate EBIT rate of global e-commerce leaders
Unit: % of cumulative consolidated sales
Over the 2014-2020 period, leaders' 7% 6,6%

operating profit (EBIT) rate increased,
6,2% 6,3%
to reach 6% of their revenue on 6,0%
average in 2021. 6% 5,7%
This growth was supported by two
major phenomena. First, the weight of 5,1%
marketplaces in global e-commerce is 5%
growing steadily. They now allow for 4,4%
higher operating margins than direct
sales. Second, the main e-commerce 4%
leaders are constantly developing their
Web and cloud services, which also
enables them to further increase their 3%
profitability.
It should be noted that this average
2%
EBIT rate masks very large disparities
between the groups. The strongly
growing new entrants have to make 1%
huge investments, especially in
logistics. Wish's EBIT rate in 2020 was
of -24.8% compared to 26.4% for eBay. 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

3.3.2. Operating income rate Rankings by consolidated operating income rate
New entrants struggle to be profitable

Rankings of the world's leaders by EBIT rate over the average period
Unit: % of consolidated sales
Average EBIT rate 2015-2020 EBIT rate 2020
eBay
Alibaba
Rakuten
Walmart
Amazon
Zalando
Otto Group
JD.com
Pinduoduo (*)
Wish (**)
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
(*) Average EBIT rate 2016-2020 / (**) History not available / Xerfi Global processing / Source: operators' financial reports

3.3.3. Activity and individualised performances Growth and profits (1/3)
The Covid-19 crisis spurred e-commerce giants' activity

AVERAGE EBIT
DATED SALES 2015-2020 2020
(2015-2020)
• Alibaba increased its revenue by a factor of 7 since 2015, a growth

supported by the surge in e-commerce in China, the development of
international activities (AliExpress and Lazada) and in the field of cloud
ALIBABA 90 794 M€
+48.0% 11.8% 18.2% services.
GROUP (31/03/2021)
• Alibaba 's EBIT ratio deteriorated significantly since 2015, from 30.8%
to 11.8% of sales at the end of March 2021, due to the huge amount of
investments made by the group.
• In 2020, Amazon's revenues grew (+37.6%), boosted by the very clear

acceleration of global e-commerce since the beginning of the Covid-19
crisis.
338 274 M€
AMAZON +29.3% 5.9% 4.6% • Amazon's EBIT rate has been trending upwards in recent years and
(2020)
stood at 5.9% of sales in 2020. In particular, the group is beginning to
reap the benefits of the success of its AWS cloud services, which are
more profitable than its online sales activities.
• JD.com's revenue quadrupled since 2015. The group has taken full
advantage of the surge in e-commerce in China over the period and of
94 755 M€ its partnership with Walmart in China.
JD.COM +32.7% 1.7% 0.4%
(2020) • JD.com's EBIT rate remained very low in 2020 (1.7%), still weighed
down by the need to massively invest in its logistics capacity to support
its growth.

Their economic performances are hampered by colossal investments...

AVERAGE EBIT
DATED SALES 2015-2020 2020
(2015-2020)
• Pinduoduo's revenue grew from just €64m in 2016 to nearly €7.6bn in

2020.
7 558 M€ +229.6% • The group's EBIT rate remained largely negative in 2020
PINDUODUO -15.8% -28.2% (*)
(2020) (*) (-15,8%). Pinduoduo's marketplace is charging very low fees. In addition,
the group is weighed down by its massive support plan for Chinese
farmers.
• On average, eBay's revenue just barely increased over the medium

term compared with the dynamics of global e-commerce.
EBAY 9 000 M€ • The group significantly improved its EBIT rate since 2019, thanks in
(2020)
+3.6% 26.4% 24.0%
particular to the refocusing of its business on its marketplace, which is
more profitable than its classified ads business.
• Rakuten's revenue grew by 15.2% in 2020, a pace close to what was

11 953 M€ observed over the medium term.
RAKUTEN +15.3% -6.4% 7.5%
(2020) • Rakuten's EBIT rate plunged from 15.5% in 2018 to -6.4% in 2020 due
to its massive investments in 5G mobile network development.
• The group's revenue increased slightly faster in 2020 (+6.8%), driven by

482 727 M€ strong growth in its online sales.
WALMART +2.9% 4.1% 4.3%
(31/01/2021) • The group's EBIT rate remained relatively stable over the average
period.
Ranking by business volume / (*) CAGR and average EBIT rate 2016-2020 / Xerfi Global processing / Source: Xerfi Global, based on operators and trade press

... in new technologies and logistics

AVERAGE EBIT
DATED SALES 2015-2020 2020
(2013-2018)
• Strong revenue growth in 2020 (+33.7%), supported by the surge in

e-commerce worldwide.
WISH 2 226 M€ • The group's EBIT rate is very largely negative (-24.8% in 2020). To
(2020)
nd -24.8% nd
support its growth, the group must invest significant amounts in
advertising.
• The group's sales jumped by 23.1% in 2020. Zalando benefited from

the dynamism of e-commerce since the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis,
ZALANDO 7 982 M€ despite the erosion of demand for fashion items.
(2020)
+22.0% 4.6% 3.7%
• The EBIT rate increased for the second consecutive year, reaching 4.6%
of sales in 2020.
• Otto Group's sales grew steadily in 2020 (+9.7%).

15 641 M€
OTTO GROUP +5.3% 4.4% 2.9% • The strong growth of its revenues enabled the group to improve its
(28/02/2021)
economic performance, with an EBIT rate up by 1.4 points in 2020.

4. Competition
and leaders' strategies

4.1. Competitive environment Overview
Low barriers to entry, but critical size is key

Competitive forces in global e-commerce
Threat of new Government

entrants influence
++ ++
Bargaining power of
+++ Bargaining power of
suppliers customers
+
rivalry +++
Threat of substitutes How to read this chart:

+++ The darker the shading, the
stronger the force

4.1. Competitive environment Intra-sectoral competition
Network effects favour e-commerce retailers
New entrants Government

++ ++
• E-commerce is a highly concentrated industry in which a handful of national leaders

Suppliers Customers have a stranglehold on their domestic market, such as Alibaba Group, JD.com and
+ +++ +++
Intra-sectoral
Rivalry Pinduoduo in China or Amazon and eBay in the United States. This high level of
concentration is largely due to the extent of network effects in the sector. Indeed, the
Substitutes
+++ more customers a platform manages to attract, the more attractive it becomes in the
eyes of the sellers, who will then join it in large numbers. Similarly, the greater the
number of sellers, the better the offer becomes and the more attractive the platform
becomes in the eyes of consumers.
• Thus, these powerful network effects help to concentrate online sales revenue among a small number of merchant websites and
increase their bargaining power with their customers and suppliers. In addition, the need to reach a significant critical size in order to
generate these network effects helps to significantly reduce the threat of new entrants.
• Although the number of major players in the sector is relatively limited, the intensity of competition between them is still very strong.
Price remains by far the number one criterion for online purchases, ahead of delivery and payment terms and conditions as well as the
quality of customer service. In addition, consumers can easily switch from one platform to another in search of the best prices. And
should they be unsatisfied with the online offer, they will not hesitate shift towards physical stores, a sales channel that still accounts for
more than 85% of the world's retail trade.

4.1. Competitive environment Threat of new entrants
The threat of new entrants remains significant

++ ++
• The online sale of goods has very low barriers to entry. There are a multitude of
Suppliers Customers inexpensive solutions that allow for the creation of an online store without necessarily
+ +++ +++
Rivalry
having to master the technology. Similarly, order shipping can easily be outsourced to
a logistics provider. It is thus less expensive to start selling online than to open a shop.
Substitutes
+++ Therefore, the very strong growth of e-commerce in recent years does not fail to
attract many entrepreneurs who wish to start some business on this channel.
• The main competition from online retailers comes from the big traditional brands. These possess a number of major advantages when
it comes to their implementation on e-commerce. The first is a strong reputation, which is a decisive factor in a channel where only the
leaders appear on search engines' top results or possess a reputation that is good enough to stimulate the audience for their online
sales site. In addition, they have significant logistics capacities and a large amount of sales outlets that enable them to deploy cross-
channel strategies (click & collect, drives, etc.).
• E-commerce also provides brands with the opportunity to engage in direct sales at a lower cost. Most of them did so in recent years,
without however giving up distribution on the main global marketplaces.
• Finally, social networks, such as Facebook, Instagram and TikTok, are starting to position themselves on e-commerce. In addition to a
very large audience, these operators can rely on a very detailed knowledge of their users (hobbies, interests, location, etc.) to
potentially allow them to send very personalised commercial offers.

4.1. Competitive environment Governments' influence
Governments adapt their legislation to e-commerce retailers

++ ++
Suppliers Customers
+++
+ +++ • Recent legislative developments are gradually reshaping online retailers' business
Rivalry
environment. In recent years, major online retailers were under increased
Substitutes
surveillance by governments and the media (especially in Western countries)
+++
regarding issues such as unfair competition (mainly in terms of prices),
mistreatment of individual sellers on marketplaces, and tax compliance.
• Calls for greater government action and additional regulation have also been fuelled by warnings on the sale of counterfeit products,
be it in the luxury sector or for sensitive products such as cosmetics, medicines and children's toys and games. Consumers' personal
data protection is also subject to vigilance. Since March 2021, all European Internet users must, for example, be informed of the
presence of online tracking devices ("cookies") and be able to accept or refuse them.
• While waiting for a compromise within OECD member states, France implemented its own tax on digital services in 2019, nicknamed
"the GAFA tax" (3% of the revenue made in France for all digital players making more than 750 M€ of revenue worldwide, of which at
least 25% in France). In parallel, the e-commerce VAT package came into force in the European Union in July 2021. From this point,
items sold online and shipped from a different country will be subject to the VAT of the destination country from the first euro.

4.1. Competitive environment Bargaining power of customers and suppliers
E-commerce retailers have strong bargaining power with their suppliers
New entrants Government • E-commerce retailers' customers have considerable bargaining power. Indeed, the
++ ++
price remains by far the main criterion for online shoppers, and it can be easily
compared from one platform to another as they remain easily substitutable in the
Suppliers Customers
+ +++ +++ eyes of consumers. In addition, consumers can also turn to the physical shops of
RivalryRivalry
traditional retailers.
Substitutes
+++
• Online retailers have a very favourable balance of power with their suppliers.
The sector is highly concentrated, which makes it impossible to avoid the
platforms that capture the largest audience. Conversely, these can turn towards a
multitude of suppliers providing home and personal goods from major brands. ++ ++
The emergence of marketplaces, allowing each vendor to be listed and delisted
quickly, exacerbated this disparity.
Suppliers Customers
+ +++ +++
Rivalry
• The development of a wide range of services for marketplaces sellers (fullfilment,
reporting tools, etc.) also contributes to reinforce suppliers' dependence on online Substitutes
Rivalry
+++
sales sites. By encouraging them to subcontract part of their value chain (storage,
shipping, sales analysis, recommendation of promotional campaigns, etc.), they
are in fact more closely linked to the marketplaces on which they are registered.

4.2. Leaders' strategies Overview
E-merchants' strategies are centered around technological innovation

Main development axes for e-commerce players
Omnichannel strategies
 Store openings
 Partnerships with partner brands
Customer loyalty Develop the FMCG offer

 Subscription packages  Partnerships with major retailers
 Additional services and content
 Cash back system
Development
axes for
e-commerce
groups
Invest in technology Strengthen logistics services
 Improve the shopping experience and the  Automation of logistics platforms
effectiveness of recommendations and  Launch of new delivery methods
promotional offers
 Use of big data and AI
Synergies with social networks

 Partnerships with social networks

4.2. Leaders' strategies Technology investments
Technology investments are strategic for commerce retailers

Innovation spending by online retail leaders in 2020
Unit: % of sales
Online sales giants tend to invest a

significant portion of their revenues in Amazon
technological innovation. The aim of
their investments is to adapt their
platforms to changing consumer
eBay
shopping habits (m-commerce, social
commerce, etc.) and develop new
functionalities based on virtual reality.
The automation of their logistics Alibaba
services is also one of their strategic
priorities to reduce delivery times and
rationalise costs. Zalando
To meet these challenges, online
retailers are constantly developing
their expertise in artificial intelligence
in order to be able to process an ever- JD.com
increasing volume of data.
Rakuten
0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20%
Source: Xerfi Global, according to operators

4.2. Leaders' strategies Technology investments
Innovation concerns every link in the e-commerce value chain

Main objectives online retailers' innovation strategies
OBJECTIVES
Improve operational Improve buyers' experience Improve sellers' experience

performance
Personalisation of Development of inventory
Automation of product messages, offers, content. and logistics optimisation
sheets and customer Contextualisation solutions
complaints processing of real-time interactions Customised reporting
tools
=> Productivity gains => Commitment
and satisfaction => Simplification and
loyalty
Source: Xerfi Global,

4.2. Leaders' strategies Customer loyalty
Leaders increase the amount of services to build customer loyalty

Examples of the main customer loyalty schemes implemented by online retailers
Customer loyalty scheme
Unlimited delivery subscription Discounts or cashback Access to multimedia content

and services
Annual subscription formula allowing Access to exclusive promotional offers,
to benefit from an unlimited premium loyalty point accumulation, cashback Video and music on demand services,
and/or free delivery service system, etc. ebooks, cloud, etc.
Reach the biggest online shoppers and

Refine customer knowledge increase their purchase frequency
The development of multimedia content makes The biggest online shoppers are naturally the
Goals enables e-commerce retailers to refine the most sensitive to the offers that let them
knowledge of their customers, in particular optimise their online purchases. Subscription
their centres of interest, a data that allows to packages with unlimited delivery or cashback
better tailor the offers and which can be used systems allow them to concentrate their
by advertisers. purchases on a single platform and encourages
impulse purchases.

4.2. Leaders' strategies Customer loyalty
Chinese e-commerce retailers do not offer membership programmes

Examples of the main customer loyalty schemes implemented by online retailers
Cashback/ loyalty
Merchant sites Unlimited delivery Exclusive discounts Multimedia content
points
Alibaba 
Amazon   
JD.com
Pinduoduo
eBay 
Rakuten   
Wish
Zalando 
Source: Xerfi Global,, according to operators

4.2. Leaders' strategies Omnichannel strategies
Omnichannel is the future of e-commerce

Recent examples of online retailers' omnichannel strategies
Main examples of omnichannel strategy
Open of a network of sales outlets Collaborate with partner networks
• Since 2018, Rakuten has been offering the possibility for

retailers operating on its marketplaces to provide in-store
• After ramping up tests in its Amazon Go grocery store, click & collect services.
Amazon opened its first autonomous and cashierless • Meanwhile, Zalando rolled out its Connected Retail service
Amazon Fresh supermarket in London in March 2021. in 2018. Since then, the group's partners operating on its
marketplaces have been able to ship their products sold
online directly from their stores.
Main objectives:
Improve customer satisfaction and loyalty (web to store systems are often synonymous with free delivery), generate traffic in stores
where transformation rates are much higher, allow small retailers to do e-commerce without giving up their "local" characteristics.
Source: Xerfi Global, based on trade press and operators

4.2. Leaders' strategies Creating synergies with social networks
Chinese players are at the forefront of social commerce

Examples of partnerships between social networks and online sales sites
 In 2014, JD.com joined forces with WeChat (Tencent

Group). As part of this partnership, JD.com can,
among other things, cross-reference its customers'
data with that of the social network in order to
optimise its marketing campaigns. Since 2018,
Internet users who search for a product on WeChat
come across JD.com's offers directly and can finalise
the transaction without leaving the app.
Partnerships
with social
networks
 Since its launch in 2013, Pinduoduo fully integrated

the social network WeChat in its business model.
Indeed, users are encouraged to share as much as
possible the products they want to buy to get the
best prices (grouped purchases). This mechanism
also allows the platform to reduce customer
acquisition costs as much as possible.
Source: Xerfi Global, based on press and operators

4.2. Leaders' strategies Creating synergies with social networks
Social networks offer a powerful growth driver

Main objectives of the partnerships between online sales sites and social networks
KEY OBJECTIVE
Reach a wide audience Strengthen the level of Refine customer knowledge

commitment
With 4.2 billion users worldwide, Social networks allow for a much
social networks represent an Social networks offer a multitude more detailed knowledge of
incomparable audience. of possible interactions (reviews, consumers' habits and interests.
shares, etc.) to increase the level The cross-referencing of data
of customer engagement. In between social networks and
=> Acquisition addition, this type of interaction merchant sites therefore makes it
of new customers (direct recommendations from possible to offer a more
peers) has a much more powerful personalised shopping experience.
effect than a traditional
promotional campaign to expand => Improve shopping
its customer base. experience and optimise
marketing campaigns
=> Loyalty and
recruitment of new
customers

4.2. Leaders' strategies Strengthening logistics services
"A la carte" delivery is a must for all e-commerce platforms

Main delivery methods offered by online retailers
Along with price, delivery terms are a key Delivery

Home delivery
criterion for online purchases. Beyond in a relay point
delivery speed, consumers are mostly
receptive to the flexibility offered by
online sales sites. Their needs vary
depending on the time of day and the
type of purchase, and they want to be
able to choose between home delivery, a
relay point or a 24-hour locker.
Click & collect Smart parcel

in store locker

E-retailers invest heavily in logistics

Examples of highlights related to e-retailers' logistics investments
October JD.com opened its first fully automated logistics platform by making use of the 5G network in Beijing.
2019 This technology will allow staff to communicate in real time with the robots to increase efficiency.
February Amazon designed its own delivery vans in partnership with Rivian, an American manufacturer
2020 specialising in electric vehicles. These 3 fully electric models will arrive on the roads in 2021.
June Amazon acquired Zoox, a California-based company founded in 2014 developing autonomous trucks,
2021 for $1bn.
May In partnership with Meituan and Neolix, JD.com planned to deploy 150 autonomous delivery robots in
2021 the Yizhuang region (China) for the delivery hot meals and snacks as part of an initial test phase.
June Alibaba developed autonomous trucks through its subsidiary Cainiao. Semi-trailers driven by artificial
2021 intelligence software could reduce the cost of transporting goods by truck by up to 50%.
Amazon inaugurated its largest logistics platform in Metz, France with a surface area of 185,000 m².
August
It required an investment of €250m. It is fully equipped with Amazon Robotics technology and
2021
operates some 2,800 robots.
Source: Xerfi Global, based on operators and press

Logistics is at the heart of the e-merchant value chain

Key strategic issues in the competitiveness of logistics services
Improve customer
service
Reduce delivery times and
make them more reliable
Seller retention Cost management

Reinforce the Improve profitability
attractiveness of and strengthen price
fullfilment services competitiveness

4.2. Leaders' strategies Online sales of consumer products
E-commerce retailers multiply partnerships with major operators

in the mass retail industry
Examples of emblematic partnerships between online retailers and mass retailers
In 2018, Walmart and JD.com formed a joint venture named JD Daojia, to implement
themselves on the express delivery of FMCG products. Note that since 2016, Walmart
has been owning a 10% share of JD.com.
In 2018, Alibaba partnered with US supermarket chain Kroger to enhance its online
food offer. Since, Kroger has had a virtual store on the Tmall Global platform on which
the group sells organic products from the brand Simple Truth.
In 2018, Rakuten partnered with Walmart, responsible for the Seiyu GK supermarkets in
Japan, to improve its online food offer.
In March 2021, Amazon and Monoprix announced the acceleration of the rollout of
their fast food delivery offer in France. Monoprix's offer is already available via Amazon
Prime Now in the region of Paris, Lyon, Bordeaux, Nice and Montpellier.

5. Sources

Group websites
Alibaba www.alibabagroup.com
Amazon www.aboutamazon.com
JD.com www.jd.com
Pinduoduo www.investirsor.pinduoduo.com
eBay www.investirsor.ebayinc.com
Rakuten www.global.rakuten.com
Walmart www.corporate.walmart.com
Wish www.ir.wish.com
Zalando www.corporate.zalando.com
Otto group www.ottogroup.com

The professional press
Financial news
Financial Times
www.ft.com
American business magazine

Forbes
www.forbes.com
American business magazine

Fortune
www.fortune.com
Economic and financial news

Les Echos
www.lesechos.fr
News on trade, retail and consumer affairs

LSA
www.lsa-conso.fr
Financial Information Group

Refinitiv
www.refinitiv.com
Global Economic and Financial Journal

Wall Street Journal
online.wsj.com

Professional organisations and data sources
World Bank
World Bank
www.worldbank.org
Market research institute specialised in e-commerce

Ecommerce Foundation
www.ecommercefoundation.org
Market research institute specialised in digital marketing, media and commerce

eMarketer
www.emarketer.com
European Institute for Economic Research and Forecasting

Feri
frr.feri.de/en
International Telecommunication Union (Specialised Agency of the United Nations)

ITU
www.itu.int
Market research institute specialising in media and consumer goods

Nielsen
www.pwc.com
Statistics Portal
Statista
www.statista.com

6. Annexes

Exchange rates used
Average exchange rate for the period from 01/01/2020 to 31/12/2020: 1 EUR = 1.141275 USD
US Dollar
Average exchange rate for the period from 01/02/2020 to 31/01/2021: 1 EUR = 1.150200 USD
Average exchange rate for the period from 01/01/2020 to 31/12/2020: 1 EUR = 7.870842 CNY
Yuan Ren Min Bi
Average exchange rate for the period from 01/04/2021 to 31/03/2021: 1 EUR = 7.900192 CNY
Japanese Yen Average exchange rate for the period 01/01/2020 to 31/12/2020: 1 EUR = 121.775833 JPY

Glossary
ITEM DEFINITION
Assets encompass all the economic resources owned by a company. They are commonly divided into short term (cash, trade
Assets
receivables, etc.) and long term assets.
CAGR Acronym for Compound Annual Growth Rate.
Short for "Capital Expenditure", an item of the cash-flow statement used as a proxy for investment in property, plant and
Capex
equipment (PPE). Generally entails physical assets used to maintain or increase operation capacities.
Capex ratio The percentage ratio between capital expenditures and net sales.
The current ratio is found by dividing current assets by current liabilities and indicates whether the company has enough
Current ratio
resources to pay its short term debt (12 months).
Debt-to-equity The ratio between total liabilities and total equity, reflecting the company’s relative amount of debt.
Free
The cash that a company is able to generate after subtracting expenses needed to maintain its asset base.
cash flow
Gross profit is the result of the difference between total sales and the cost of making products or providing services. Payroll and
Gross profit
interest costs as well as taxes are not taken into account.
Impairment Impairment charges occur when a company has found that the value of its goodwill has been overestimated and needs to be
charge revised.
Interest coverage is calculated by dividing operating income by net interest expenses and reflects the company's debt burden, i.e.
Interest coverage
its ability to pay interest on outstanding debt. The lower this ratio, the more the company is burdened by interest expenses.
Liabilities encompass all obligations arising from a company's past operations and which will result in an outflow of resources in
Liabilities
the future. Liabilities are divided into short term and long liabilities, and represent the debt a company owes to its creditors.

Glossary
ITEM DEFINITION
Net debt Net debt is calculated by subtracting a company's cash from its total debt.
Net profit/ Net profit refers to a company's total earnings. It is the result of the difference between net sales and all operating and non-
net margin operating expenses such as taxes, interests, depreciation and amortisation expenditures.
Operating profit refers to the earnings generated by the normal business operations of a company. Operating profit is the result
Operating profit/
of the difference between sales and total operating expenses. Operating margin is expressed in % and is computed by dividing
operating margin
operating profit by net sales.
Expenses associated with the research and development process of creating new products or services; it is often used as a proxy
R&D expenditure
for innovation.
Return on assets is calculated by dividing a company's net income by its total assets. It measures the ability of the company to
Return on assets (ROA)
generate profits from its assets.
Return on equity is calculated by dividing a company's net income by its shareholder equity. It measures the ability of a company
Return on equity (ROE)
to generate profits from its investment funds.
Earnings made from the sales of goods and services, excluding VAT and other taxes. Reflects, total volumes sold, selling prices,
Sales
exchange rates and product mixes.
The quick ratio is calculated by dividing current assets net from inventories by current liabilities and measures the company’s
Quick ratio
immediate capacity to repay its short term debt.
Working capital is the difference between currents assets and current liabilities. When positive, working capitals means a
Working capital
company would able to pay its short term debt.

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The Global E-Commerce Market (September 2021)

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The Global

Date de publication September 2021

Principaux contributeurs Benoît Samarcq and Delphine David

Code étude 21WXDIS03

Identification of market leaders

Identification of the main market indicators

Identification of corporate strategies

Identification of the key conclusions

This is a collective report written Other contributors include:

The Global E-commerce Market - September 2021 2

3. The market and leaders' activity 26

3.2. The global e-commerce market 40

3.3. Leaders' activity and performances 52

The Global E-commerce Market - September 2021 3

4. Competition and leaders' strategies 61

4.2. Leaders' strategies 67

The Global E-commerce Market - September 2021 4

The Global E-commerce Market - September 2021 5

Major trends 2021-2023

The Global E-commerce Market - September 2021 6

Record growth for global e-commerce in 2020

Global e-commerce revenue (€bn) Annual variation (%)

Processing: Xerfi Global, / Source: eMarketer

The Global E-commerce Market - September 2021 7

M-commerce now generates 70% of global e-commerce

M-commerce turnover (G scale) Weight in e-commerce (D scale)

Processing and forecasts: Xerfi Global, / Source: eMarketer

The Global E-commerce Market - September 2021 8

Leaders' revenue quadrupled since 2014

NB: some groups close their accounts during the year

The Global E-commerce Market - September 2021 9

Main product categories sold online worldwide in 2020

Fashion and beauty products 583,2

Toys and leisure items 460,5

Consumer electronics 439,7

Food and consumer products 362,6

Furniture and household appliances 289,9

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Processing: Xerfi Global / Source: Statista Market Outlooks (2020 data)

The Global E-commerce Market - September 2021 10

Asia accounts for more than half of global e-commerce

Source: Xerfi Global, based on eMarketer, 2020 data

The Global E-commerce Market - September 2021 11

Global e-commerce is dominated by Chinese groups

Alibaba group 1 028

0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200

Xerfi Global processing / Source: operators' financial reports

The Global E-commerce Market - September 2021 12

The Covid-19 crisis spurred e-commerce giants' activity

• Alibaba increased its revenue by a factor of 7 since 2015, a growth

• In 2020, Amazon's revenues grew (+37.6%), boosted by the very clear

• JD.com's revenue quadrupled since 2015. The group took full

The Global E-commerce Market - September 2021 13

Their economic performances are hampered by colossal investments...

• Pinduoduo's revenue grew from just €64m in 2016 to nearly €7.6bn in

• On average, eBay's revenue just barely increased over the medium

• Rakuten's revenue grew by 15.2% in 2020, a pace close to what was

• The group's revenue increased slightly faster in 2020 (+6.8%), driven by

The Global E-commerce Market - September 2021 14

... in new technologies and logistics

• Strong revenue growth in 2020 (+33.7%), supported by the surge in

• The group's sales jumped by 23.1% in 2020. Zalando benefited from

• Otto Group's sales grew steadily in 2020 (+9.7%).