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Optimizing Fetal Health Assessment and Mortality Prevention: An In-depth

Exploration of Ensemble Learning Techniques on Cardiotocogram Data

Article · November 2023

DOI: 10.1729/Journal.36830

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www.ijcspub.org © 2023 IJCSPUB | Volume 13, Issue 4 November 2023 | ISSN: 2250-1770
Optimizing Fetal Health Assessment and Mortality
Prevention: An In-depth Exploration of Ensemble
Learning Techniques on Cardiotocogram Data
Soumit Roy
Head of Data Analytics Presales
Jade Global Inc
Chicago,IL,USA
Abstract—This research offers a thorough analysis
of sophisticated ensemble learning approaches for
the crucial classification of fetal health. Using a
dataset of more than 2000 records from
cardiotocogram exams, the research makes use of
techniques such as Random Forest, LightGBM,
and Decision Tree that are methodically optimized
for best results. Then, to smoothly merge these
models and improve prediction accuracy, a
stacking classifier is used. By appropriately
categorizing fetal health into Normal, Suspect, and
Pathological categories, the research hopes to
considerably contribute to the prevention of mother
and child mortality. This work creates a standard
for predictive modeling in reproductive child
healthcare through extensive testing and
assessment. The results provide important new
information for obstetricians and gynecologists as
well as evidence of the effectiveness of ensemble
learning in this discipline.
Keywords: Fetal Health Classification, Ensemble
Learning, Cardiotocogram Exams, Reproductive
Child Health Care, Predictive Modeling, Stacking
Classifier.
I. INTRODUCTION
The current panorama of fetal health and death is a
major source of concern in modern medicine.
Despite significant advances in medical research
[1], there are still significant hurdles in ensuring
optimal outcomes for both fetuses and mothers.
Fetal health issues, if not recognized and treated
promptly, can result in increased death rates,
underscoring the crucial need for a full
IJCSP23D1096 International Journal of Current Science (IJCSPUB) www.ijcspub.org
Mainak Mitra
Technical Project Manager
Conviva
Dublin,USA
understanding of the factors impacting these
outcomes. This problem [2] extends beyond
individual individuals and has a profound impact
on broader maternity and child healthcare systems.
The urgency rests in proactively tackling these
challenges in order to lower mortality rates, raise
the standard of prenatal care, and assure healthier
outcomes for moms and infants alike. This study
addresses this need by researching improved
methodologies in prenatal health classification that
make use of complex ensemble learning
algorithms. It hopes to give unique insights that
have the potential to dramatically improve the
whole landscape of reproductive healthcare,
emphasizing the significance of proactive
intervention and new techniques in the sector.
This study's research technique includes a thorough
strategy to studying fetal health classification. We
use a multifaceted strategy that incorporates
advanced data analysis tools to reach our goals.
The first phase is a thorough examination of
current literature, which provides a foundational
understanding of earlier research, identifies gaps in
knowledge, and informs our study topics.
Following that, we describe the dataset used, which
included over 2000 records taken from
Cardiotocogram tests and was painstakingly vetted
to ensure relevance and dependability. The
implementation of ensemble learning techniques,
specifically the Random Forest, LightGBM, and
Decision Tree algorithms, is our core focus. These
models are subjected to regular parameter
adjustment in order to improve their performance.
The completion of these distinct models is reached
using a Stacking Classifier, which is carefully
designed to integrate and improve their
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capabilities. Transparency and reproducibility are
prioritized in the research approach, allowing for a
full review of each phase. We investigate essential
aspects, validate model performance, and gain
valuable insights during the data analysis process.
This methodical methodology ensures the
robustness of our findings and helps to the study's
overall reliability. We are committed to delivering
a research framework that not only tackles the
difficulties of fetal health classification but also
serves as a baseline for future studies in this crucial
domain of reproductive healthcare as we progress
through the approach.
The findings of this study not only provide
important insights into the use of ensemble
learning in reproductive child health care, but they
also contribute to the broader discussion of
predictive modeling for mother and child well-
being. We identify patterns and trends in fetal
health dynamics through a careful evaluation of
key features and model performance measures.
These findings have implications for improving
current healthcare practices, encouraging proactive
intervention measures, and, ultimately, minimizing
the risks associated with bad fetal outcomes. By
describing our study's findings, we hope to provide
a solid platform for future reproductive healthcare
research. The potential contributions lie not only in
the immediate implementation of ensemble
learning approaches, but also in establishing a
continual dialogue on innovative methodology and
best practices for safeguarding the health and well-
being of both mothers and infants.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
This paper [3] addresses the critical global issue of
perinatal mortality, emphasizing the imperative for
immediate attention to ensure sustainable national
growth. Acknowledging the significance of both
intrapartum and antepartum fetal health
monitoring, the authors highlight the pivotal role of
assessing fetal and maternal risk through
continuous monitoring of the fetal heart rate.
Employing Cardiotocography to record
simultaneous data on the fetal heart rate and uterine
contractions, this study proposes an efficient
method for predicting high-risk pregnancies based
on fetal health status, utilizing the Classification
and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm.
Leveraging a dataset comprising 2126 recordings
from the UCI machine learning repository, the
authors conduct a rigorous 5-fold cross-validation,
quantifying the proposed methodology's
performance through precision, recall, and F-score
metrics.
This research [4] emphasizes the crucial necessity
for early and comprehensive fetal care to enhance
pregnancy outcomes, emphasizing the
fundamental link between maternal and fetal
health. Recognizing the global difficulty of
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pregnancy and childbirth-related complications,
with over 800 women dying each day, the study
emphasizes the critical need for preventive care to
reduce such risks. With 3 million newborn deaths
each year, the link between mother and fetal health
becomes further clearer, highlighting the
importance of meticulous care throughout the
maternity cycle. The authors advocate for the
safety of both mother and child by focusing on
anticipating risk levels before, during, and after
delivery. Cardiotocography (CTG) is an important
monitoring method devised specifically for
pregnant women dealing with complex difficulties,
providing essential insights into fetal well-being.
This study [5] explores the deep significance of
pregnancy as a transformational life cycle,
emphasizing its intrinsic power. The importance of
a stable and safe pregnancy is emphasized by the
authors, who emphasize the need of timely and
consistent fetal therapy in increasing the likelihood
of a secure pregnancy. The notion of fetal welfare
is introduced as a complete program aimed to
monitor pregnant women throughout their
maternity cycle, emphasizing the importance of
raising awareness among expectant moms. The
distressing global number of about 800 women
dying each day from pregnancy and childbirth
problems underlines the critical need for
comprehensive maternal and fetal care. With
roughly three million neonatal deaths each year,
the intimate link between maternal and fetal health
becomes clear. The study calls for comprehensive
treatment that includes risk assessments before,
during, and after delivery to guarantee the well-
being of both mother and child. The study uses
cardiotocography (CTG) as a fundamental
monitoring tool and focuses on an evolutionary
multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) to
extract significant parameters impacting fetal
health.
This paper [6] navigates the complexities of fetal
health analysis, considering the fetus as an unborn
child in its basic state until birth. The trimester, a
three-month phase during pregnancy, is critical for
fetal growth, necessitating regular health checks.
The key equipment used to analyze the baby's
health, particularly the heartbeat, collects data that
clinicians need to assess and provide informed
guidance. The nine-month pregnant period
provides possible threats to newborn health,
necessitating close monitoring to avoid problems
or death. Recognizing the limitations of manual
examination, the research investigates innovative
machine and deep learning algorithms to examine
and forecast fetal health, responding to the pressing
need for dependable solutions. Global data
highlight the seriousness of the problem, with 9 out
of every 100 babies having health difficulties at
delivery and a startling 7 million cases of atypical
fetal health recorded globally in 2020. Prior
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research utilizing various categorization strategies A. Data Collection
sets the framework for this study, which dives into The dataset used in this study consists of over 2000
the comparative efficacy of neural network records derived from Cardiotocogram (CTG) tests,
algorithms, demonstrating that artificial neural expertly classified into three unique classes by
networks outperform other models in the field of three obstetricians—Normal, Suspect, and
fetal health prediction.
Pathological. These classes are associated with
This study [7] digs into the issues of maternal and critical fetal health features such as baseline fetal
newborn health, which are aggravated by limited heart rate (FHR), accelerations, fetal movement,
access to vital maternal healthcare services as a uterine contractions, light decelerations, severe
result of COVID-19 preventive efforts. The decelerations, prolonged decelerations, abnormal
influence of preventive interventions on maternal short-term variability, mean value of short-term
and fetal monitoring is significant, with clinicians variability, and the percentage of time with
experiencing increased difficulty. The dread of abnormal long-term variability. An exploratory
getting COVID-19, combined with pregnant data analysis stage involves the evaluation of
mothers' limited mobility to experienced health
relationships among variables to verify data
practitioners in resource-constrained situations,
contributes considerably to maternal and newborn quality.
death and morbidity. To address these issues, the
study uses existing health data to build
interpretable Machine Learning (ML) models. By
identifying biological signals acquired from fetal
cardiotocograms (CTGs), these models promise to
enhance precision maternal and fetal care.
This research [8] focuses on the critical function of
the cardiotocogram (CTG) as the major clinical
tool for assessing fetal states. The study begins by
applying twelve machine learning single models to
the CTG dataset. Following that, the soft voting
integration method is used to combine the four
most effective models, resulting in the Blender
Model, and a comparison with the stacking
integration method is performed. Notably, when
compared to traditional machine learning models, Fig. 1. Heatmap of the Correlation Matrix
the suggested approach outperforms them across Figure 1 depicts the correlation matrix heatmap,
multiple Classification approach evaluations. This which is an important stage in data preprocessing.
study contributes to the advancement of fetal state This visualization aids in the discovery of links
identification efficacy through machine learning by between variables, which is critical for identifying
offering a solid framework for improving the potential dependencies and multicollinearity in the
precision and reliability of CTG evaluations in dataset.
clinical settings.
III. METHODOLOGY
The methodology used in this study incorporates
the use of machine learning techniques to improve
fetal health classification. Starting with the
selection and preprocessing of a large dataset, we Fig. 2. Fetal Health Distribution
proceed to the feature selection and extraction Figure 2 depicts the distribution of fetal health
operations. Following that, a set of machine classes as a bar plot, which provides a visual
learning models is trained and optimized, including depiction of the dataset's class distribution. This
Random Forest, LightGBM, and Decision Tree. knowledge is useful in understanding the balance
Ensemble learning is then used to combine or imbalance among many fetal health categories.
individual model strengths using approaches such
as stacking and soft voting. The evaluation
includes a number of indicators, ensuring a full
examination of model performance and feature
significance. The goal of this methodology is to
improve the precision of fetal health classification
and to contribute to the field of reproductive
healthcare.
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Fig. 3. Selected Columns Pair Plot Fig. 6. Radar Chart of Fetal Health Features
Figure 3 shows a pair plot of selected columns that
provides a thorough perspective of the interactions Figure 6 shows a radar graphic that compares
between baseline value, accelerations, uterine features based on 'Fetal Health.' This image
contractions, and fetal health. This visualization provides a multidimensional perspective, showing
facilitates the identification of patterns and differences in feature values across health groups.
potential predictive correlations between variables.
Figure 7 depicts a parallel coordinate plot of the
B. Feature Selection and Workflow Analysis association between selected features and 'Fetal
This study's feature selection process tries to find Health.' This visualization provides an in-depth
and prioritize variables important for fetal health look at feature trends across several health
classification. Key elements and their classifications.
interrelationships are thoroughly studied using
various visualization approaches such as
histograms, scatter plots, distribution plots,
heatmaps, radar charts, and parallel coordinates
plots.

Fig. 4. Baseline Value Histogram

Figure 4 depicts a histogram of the 'Baseline Fig. 7. Parallel Coordinates Plot of Selected Fetal
Value,' which provides insight into its frequency Health Features
distribution. This helps to understand the
variability of the baseline fetal heart rate, which is
an important aspect for fetal health assessment.

Fig. 5. Uterine Contractions Distribution Plot

Figure 5 shows a distribution plot centered on
'Uterine Contractions,' with a density-based
representation of its distribution. This contributes
to feature selection by helping to understand the
range and concentration of contractions.

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Fig. 8. Workflow diagram of the overall
implementation
The implementation of three independent machine
learning models is depicted in a pipeline diagram
encapsulating the technique. Following that, an
ensemble model [12] is built by combining
findings from these three models. This procedure
ensures a thorough and diverse approach to fetal
health classification. The workflow diagram in
figure 8 demonstrates how model creation is
iterative, with each stage adding to the overall
improvement of classification accuracy and
resilience.
C. Machine Learning Model Implementation
The selection of machine learning models in this
study is supported by careful assessment of the
qualities and needs inherent in fetal health
classification. Three notable models, Random
Forest, LightGBM, and Decision Tree, were
intentionally chosen to use their distinct
capabilities in handling complicated datasets and
capturing intricate correlations within features.
1. Random Forest Classifier:
Random Forest [9], a robust ensemble learning
technique, is chosen for its ability to reduce
overfitting and improve predictive accuracy by
aggregating predictions from several decision
trees. This makes it particularly well-suited to the
complicated task of fetal health classification,
where multiple variables may contribute
differentially to the total outcome. Grid search
technique is used to implement a systematic
hyperparameter tuning method
RandomForestClassifier. The minimal number of
samples needed to split an internal node
(min_samples_split), the minimum number of
samples needed to be at a leaf node
(min_samples_leaf), the maximum depth of the
trees (max_depth), and the number of trees in the
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forest (n_estimators) are among the criteria taken
into consideration. The performance of the model
is optimized by experimenting with different
settings for these parameters. In order to
thoroughly assess the effect of hyperparameters on
the model's accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score,
sensitivity, specificity, and loss, the tuning process
entails iterating through various splits and test
sizes.
2. Light Gradient Boosting Classifier:
LightGBM, a gradient boosting framework, is used
because of its efficiency in handling big datasets
and speed in training models. Its capacity [10] to
prioritize features that contribute significantly to
the target variable corresponds well with the goal
of extracting key fetal health indicators from the
dataset. When fine-tuning the LGBMClassifier's
hyperparameters, variables like the number of
boosting rounds (n_estimators), learning rate
(learning_rate), maximum depth of tree growth
(max_depth), number of leaves in a single tree
(num_leaves), training instance subsample ratio
(subsample), and training instance column
subsample ratio (colsample_bytree) are
investigated. The goal of this optimization
procedure is to use LightGBM's speed and
efficiency for the classification of fetal health. A
variety of metrics are used to evaluate the model's
performance across different splits and test sizes,
including accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score,
sensitivity, specificity, and loss.
3. Decision Tree Classifier:
Decision Tree, a fundamental yet powerful model,
is featured for its interpretability and ease of
visualizing complex decision-making processes.
Decision trees [11] excel at capturing non-linear
correlations, providing useful insights into feature
relevance and enhancing model interpretability.
Similar hyperparameter tuning occurs with the
DecisionTreeClassifier, where the emphasis is on
the minimum number of samples needed to split an
internal node (min_samples_split), the maximum
depth of the tree (max_depth), the criteria for node
splitting (criterion), and the minimum number of
samples needed to be at a leaf node
(min_samples_leaf). The decision tree model is
being fine-tuned in order to extract the most
pertinent features for the classification of fetal
health. A variety of splits and test sizes are used to
assess the performance indicators, which include
accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, sensitivity,
specificity, and loss.
for
4. Ensemble Classifier Technique:
Recognizing the complementing characteristics of
separate models, an ensemble technique known as
Stacking Classifier [13] is used to improve the
predicted performance of the fetal health
categorization. Three basis models—
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DecisionTreeClassifier, LGBMClassifier, and B. Individual Model Performance
RandomForestClassifier—are used to generate the The research carefully assesses the effectiveness of
ensemble model that is produced by stacking every single machine learning model used,
classifiers. Each base model's hyperparameter is concentrating on three well-known models:
adjusted separately, bringing the best Random Forest, LightGBM, and Decision Tree. To
configurations into the group. Logistic Regression
give a thorough insight, the assessment includes a
is employed as the meta-classifier in the creation of
variety of performance measurements and
the final ensemble. To optimize overall
performance, the Stacking Classifier's visualization strategies.
parameters—such as the selection of base models 1. Loss Values and Iteration Analysis:
and meta-classifier—are adjusted. The assessment Loss Values and Iteration Analysis: The study
measures are uniformly applied across different provides insights into the convergence behavior
splits and test sizes to guarantee a thorough and optimizing techniques by visualizing the loss
evaluation of the ensemble model's performance in values during the course of iterations for each
classifying fetal health. model.
IV. RESULT AND ANALYSIS
A thorough assessment of the machine learning
models used for the classification of fetal health is
provided in the Results and Analysis section. The
section starts by describing the performance
metrics for each of the three models (Random
Forest, Decision Tree, and LightGBM) separately, a) Random Forest b)Decision
including accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, Trees
sensitivity, specificity, and loss. There is a detailed
discussion of the hyperparameter tuning procedure
and how it affects the performance of the model.
Moreover, the ensemble model, which is built
using the Stacking Classifier, is examined to
demonstrate how well it combines the advantages
of the separate models. The comparative study that c) LightGBM
follows sheds light on the practical consequences Fig. 9. Loss Values and Iteration Analysis
of each model and the ensemble approach in fetal
health evaluation by highlighting their respective
These charts help determine the stability and rate
advantages and disadvantages.
of convergence of the model.
A. Evaluation Metrics 2. Accuracy Trends:
The evaluation of model performance in the By presenting accuracy trends across several splits,
classification of fetal health is dependent on an the study makes it possible to compare the
extensive set of critical indicators. The evaluation performance of the models.
methodology is based on these parameters, which
also include sensitivity, specificity, recall,
accuracy, precision, F1 score, and AUC-ROC.
While precision assesses the accuracy of positive
predictions, accuracy gauges the overall soundness
of the model's predictions. Recall, also known as
sensitivity, measures how well the model can a)Random Forest b)Decision
detect true positive cases; the F1 score finds a Trees
compromise between recall and accuracy. The
model's ability to accurately detect positive and
negative examples is further outlined by its
sensitivity and specificity. The model's capacity for
class distinction is measured by the AUC-ROC
metric. In order to give a comprehensive picture of
the model's performance in classifying fetal health
c) LightGBM
and support well-informed decision-making in
Fig. 10. Accuracy Trends
clinical settings, each statistic is essential. This
thorough assessment guarantees a solid
examination of the models' strengths and
weaknesses in the crucial area of perinatal care.
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These patterns provide insight into how
consistently and dependably each model performs
in different scenarios.

3. Confusion Matrix:
Showing true positives, true negatives, false
positives, and false negatives, the confusion matrix a)Random Forest b)Decision
offers a thorough analysis of the model's predictive Trees
accuracy.

c) LightGBM
a)Random Forest b)Decision Trees Fig. 13. Calibration Curve
The accuracy of the estimated probability is
indicated by how close they are to the fully
calibrated line.
The study uses measurements including accuracy,
precision, recall, F1-score, sensitivity, specificity,
and AUC-ROC for a quantitative assessment in
c) LightGBM addition to these visualizations. This diverse
Fig. 11. Confusion Matrix approach guarantees a thorough and nuanced
The interpretation of the classification performance evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of
is improved by this visual representation. each model in relation to the classification of fetal
health.
4. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) C. Ensemble Model Performance
Curve:
Each of the three classes' ROC curves provides a Using stacking or soft voting, the ensemble model
detailed assessment of the models' interclass is created and then carefully tested. It is an example
discrimination capabilities. of a combination of several machine learning
models, including Random Forest, LightGBM, and
Decision Tree. A thorough summary of the
ensemble model's effectiveness is provided by the
evaluation, which is enhanced with a variety of
performance measures and visualization strategies.
1. Confusion Matrix:
This shows the true positives, true negatives, false
a)Random Forest b)Decision positives, and false negatives for the ensemble
Trees model and illustrates how accurate it is in making
predictions.

c) LightGBM
Fig. 12. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) (a) (b)
Curve Fig. 14. Ensemble model a) Confusion Matrix , b)
ROC curve
AUC-ROC, or the area under the ROC curve, is a
metric used to quantify classification performance. The classification performance of the ensemble
5. Calibration Curve: model is easier to grasp thanks to this visual
This graphic illustrates how expected probability depiction.
and actual results compare, offering information on
how accurate the models are calibrated.

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2. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) the three individual models that consistently
curve: perform worse than the ensemble in Table 2 across
The ROC curve, along with the area under the ROC all major performance characteristics.
curve (AUC-ROC), provides a thorough
TABLE II. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS II
assessment of the discriminating abilities of the
ensemble model. The capacity of the model to Model Precis Rec F1- Specifi
discriminate between several classes is evaluated s ion all score city
by this graphical representation. Rando
This comprehensive assessment guarantees a m 0.93 0.93 0.93 13.42
comprehensive comprehension of the ensemble Forest
model's performance, enabling well-informed Decisi
comparisons with individual models and on 0.91 0.91 0.91 9.90
demonstrating the possible gains attained by Trees
combining several machine learning techniques. LightG
0.94 0.94 0.94 16.19
D. Model Comparison BM
An extensive comparison of important measures Ensem
0.96 0.96 0.96 25.29
demonstrates the superiority of the ensemble ble
model in classifying fetal health. The performance
metrics are displayed in Table 1, which The ensemble demonstrates a remarkable capacity
demonstrates the exceptional accuracy (0.94) of the to accurately identify positive cases while
ensemble above the individual models, Random minimizing false positives and false negatives, as
Forest (0.90), Decision Tree (0.89), and LightGBM seen by its maximum precision (0.96), recall
(0.91). (0.96), and F1-score (0.96). The group also
demonstrates high sensitivity (0.96) and specificity
TABLE I. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS I (25.29), demonstrating that it is adept at correctly
categorizing positive and negative cases. This
Val Val Log Val
Model Accur thorough investigation confirms the ensemble
Accur Log Los Los
s acy model's efficacy and offers strong support for its
acy loss s s
position as the best option for reliable fetal health
Rando
classification.
m 0.94 0.90 0.21 0.06 0.08
Forest V. CONCLUSION
Decisi Using ensemble approaches and sophisticated
on 0.93 0.89 1.71 0.08 0.11 machine learning models, this research concludes
Trees with a thorough investigation of the classification
LightG of fetal health. The study developed a
0.95 0.91 0.40 0.00 0.07
BM comprehensive method for monitoring and
Ensem forecasting fetal well-being using machine learning
0.95 0.94 0.13 0.03 0.04
ble algorithms, in addition to addressing the crucial
problem of perinatal death. As the highest
When it comes to certain criteria, such as log loss, performing model in terms of accuracy, precision,
overall accuracy, and validation accuracy, the recall, and overall classification efficacy, the
ensemble model routinely produces the best ensemble model was created by stacking separate
results. The ensemble's remarkable achievement in models. There is a promising future ahead of us,
lowering the validation and overall loss metrics even though the current work has produced
(0.04) is especially significant as it demonstrates its impressive findings that recognize the dynamic
skill in producing a reliable and well-balanced nature of technology and healthcare. More work
prediction result. This thorough investigation may be done to improve the current models,
validates the ensemble model's effectiveness, investigate different feature engineering
making it the recommended option for classifying techniques, and include larger datasets. Ongoing
fetal health. cooperation with medical specialists can improve
the model's comprehensibility and enable its easy
The superiority of the ensemble model in fetal incorporation into clinical procedures. The
health classification is further supported by a accuracy and dependability of fetal health
careful analysis of measures such as precision, prediction can also be improved by investigating
recall, F1-score, sensitivity, and specificity. real-time monitoring apps and utilizing cutting-
Random Forest, Decision Tree, and LightGBM are edge technology like explainable AI.
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Future research initiatives can greatly improve
perinatal care and guarantee better results for
moms and newborns by fusing the strengths of
machine learning with healthcare experience. In an
effort to provide more precise and proactive
healthcare solutions, this study lays the
groundwork for future research at the nexus of
maternal-fetal medicine and technology.
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