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January 2023

CONTENT

INDIAN ECONOMY 1

INDIAN EQUITY MARKET 2

INDIAN FIXED INCOME 3

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET 5

GLOBAL FIXED INCOME 5

CURRENCY 6

COMMODITY 6
View from the Top

Global equity markets mostly closed on a subdued note during the month under review. Market sentiments
were rendered bearish amid uncertainty regarding the renewed COVID-19 scare in China. Market participants
weighed the impact of increasing coronavirus infection cases in China and the subsequent relaxation of
coronavirus restrictions in the region on global growth. Worries that central banks across the globe will keep
interest rates at a higher level for an extended period to tame inflation also weighed on the market sentiment.

U.S. equity markets fell on worries that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue with its rate hiking spree which
may lead to a recession in the U.S. economy. Also trading activity remained subdued due to lack of fresh
market triggers ahead of the year end with most of the market participants remaining in holiday mood and
away from their desks. However, bargain hunting restricted further losses.

European markets also came down after the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central
Bank, and the Swiss National Bank, all raised their interest rates and signaled further policy tightening in the
coming months to tame inflation. A surprise policy twist by the Bank of Japan also added to the losses.

Asian equity markets too closed the month in red as rapid expansion of Covid infections in China and worries
about the possibility of new variants emerging dampened market sentiments. Negative cues from U.S. and
European equity markets also played spoilsport. However, markets received some support after China
announced that it will end quarantine for inbound travelers on Jan 8, 2023.

Back home, domestic equity markets also mirrored the trends depicted by its peers in U.S, Europe and Asia.
Markets remained under pressure as China continued to grapple with soaring COVID-19 infections which
renewed worries of lockdowns, restrictions in economic activity and slowdown in global growth. The Indian
government also stepped up its surveillance as it re-introduced random testing of international arrivals from
Dec 24. Worries that global growth may take a hit due to rising interest rates also kept markets under pressure.

In the domestic debt market, bond yields rose marginally after a range bound movement during the month.
Yields rose after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its monetary policy review raised key policy repo rate
by 35 bps and highlighted concerns over domestic inflationary pressures. Losses increased after the U.S.
Federal Reserve increased interest rates in its monetary policy review and added that interest rate hikes in U.S.
would continue for a longer period.

Outlook

Domestic equity markets moving ahead will be dictated by incoming macroeconomic data. The COVID-19
situation in Çhina and global trends will also have its impact on the markets. Incoming domestic
macroeconomic data and corporate earning numbers for the quarter ended Dec 2022 will indicate the stability
and the resiliency of the Indian economy. Domestic retail inflation data will also remain in sharp focus as the
same will provide cues as what stance the Reserve Bank of India adopts in its monetary policy. In addition to
the above mentioned factors, movement of the rupee against the greenback, transaction trends by foreign
institutional investors, monetary policy action by central banks across the globe and global crude oil prices will
also have its impact on the markets to some extent.

After a sharp rise in yields during 2022, market participants are expecting yields to trade in a narrow range in
the short term, unless the supply calendar surprises very shockingly. The next key trigger will be the Union
Budget on Feb 01, 2023, the primary driver for bond yields. Also investors sentiment will majorly be dependent
on the RBI's rate hike cycle, which may be coming to an end.

We are pleased to bring to you the latest version of the Monthly Market Buzz for January. Happy Reading!!!

Surinder Chawla
Head – Branch Banking
INDIAN ECONOMY
Economic Releases in December-2022 • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its bi-monthly
Key Indicator Period Actual Previous monetary policy review raised key policy repo rate by 35 bps
Repo Rate Dec-22 6.25% 5.90% to 6.25% with immediate effect. This was the fifth
Reverse Repo Dec-22 3.35% 3.35% consecutive rate hike by the MPC in this fiscal. Five out of six
CRR Dec-22 4.50% 4.50%
members voted to increase the policy repo rate by 35 bps.
Index of Industrial With this rate hike, the repo rate has been raised by 225 bps
Oct-22 -4.00% 3.47%
Production (IIP) since May 2022. Consequently, the standing deposit facility
Wholesale Price Index
Nov-22 5.85% 8.39% (SDF) rate stands adjusted to 6.00%. The marginal standing
Inflation(WPI)
facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate stand adjusted to
Export (Y-o-Y) Nov-22 0.60% -16.65%
6.50%. The MPC also remained focused on withdrawal of
Import (Y-o-Y) Nov-22 5.37% 5.69% accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the
Source: RBI, Refinitiv target going forward, while supporting growth. Four out of
six members voted in favour of the same.
Monthly WPI Movement

• Government data showed that the growth of Index of


16.00
Industrial Production (IIP) contracted 4.0% YoY in Oct 2022
compared with a growth of 3.47% in the previous month
Growth (%)

11.00
and 4.2% rise in the same period of the previous year. IIP
6.00
contracted at the steepest pace since Aug 2020. For the
1.00
period from Apr to Oct of FY23, IIP growth slowed
Nov-20 Jul-21 Mar-22 Nov-22 considerably to 5.3% from a rise of 20.5% in the same
Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce & Industry
period of the previous fiscal. The manufacturing sector
output also declined 5.6% in Oct 2022 from a growth of
25.00 IIP Movement 3.3% in the same period of the previous year.
20.00
15.00
• India’s Wholesale price index-based inflation (WPI) slowed
(%)

10.00
5.00 considerably and touched 21-month low to 5.85% YoY in
Growth

0.00
-5.00 Nov 2022 from 8.39% rise in Oct 2022. The growth of WPI
-10.00 Food index eased to 2.17% in Nov 2022 from 6.48% in Oct
-15.00
Oct-21 Feb-22 Jun-22 Oct-22 2022 and 8.02% in Sep 2022.
IIP (%MoM) IIP (%YoY)
Source: Refinitiv

• Capital market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has set caps on the percentage of assets an
actively managed fund can park in a single company's debt instruments although the restriction varies depending on
each issuer's credit rating. A mutual fund scheme is not permitted to invest more than 10% of its net asset value in
debt and money market securities of corporations with a "AAA" rating, per the rules. The exposure limit for
organisations with a "AA" rating is8%, whereas it is 6% for organisations with a "A" rating. With the previous consent
of the board of trustees and the board of directors of the asset management business, the limitations may be
increased by an additional 2%.

• SEBI announced that it will shorten the period needed to register FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) to make
conducting business easier. The framework for cloud service adoption by SEBI Regulated Entities (REs)was also
accepted by the board. It would be a framework built on principles and comprise nine major guidelines that REs must
adhere to when providing cloud services.

• SEBI has prolonged the prohibition of futures and options trading in seven agricultural commodities, including wheat
and moong, for an additional year until Dec 2023 in an effort to control prices. The other agricultural products that
SEBI has suspended are soy bean and its derivatives, chana, mustard seeds and their derivatives, non-basmati paddy,
and crude palm oil.

Page | 1
Indian Equity Market • Domestic equity markets went down during the month
under review as key domestic headline indices S&P BSE
Growth of Rs 10,000 over Last 3-Yrs
Sensex and Nifty 50 fell in excess of 3%. Losses were
23,000 widespread as the mid cap segment and the small cap
segment also closed the month in red. However, unlike
Figure in INR

17,000 most of its peers, Indian equites ended the year on a


positive note as optimism over domestic growth prospects
11,000
managed to overshadow the macroeconomic headwinds
5,000
and geopolitical uncertainty which kept the global equities
Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 under pressure this year.
S&P BSE Mid cap S&P BSE Sensex S&P BSE Small cap
Source : MFI Explorer • Domestic equity markets fell initially during the month
under review after the Reserve Bank of India led Monetary
Policy Committee (MPC) raised key policy repo rate by 35
DII, FII Investment & S&P BSE Sensex - December 2022 bps and downgraded the growth projections of the Indian
economy for the current fiscal to 6.8% from the earlier
Figure in INR (Cr.)

10400.00
63,200 projection of 7% in its monetary policy review. This was the
S&P BSE Sensex

6300.00
fifth consecutive rate hike since May 2022.
62,000

2200.00 60,800 • Markets fell further following heavy selling in IT, tech and
energy stocks after a major domestic IT company warned
-1900.00 59,600
1-Dec-22 11-Dec-22 21-Dec-22 31-Dec-22 that revenue growth in FY23 might be at the lower end of
earlier guidance as spending on IT services may come down
FII/FPI Net investment DII Net investment S&P BSE Sensex
due to muted demand and a slowdown in global growth.
Source: MFI Explorer

• Domestic equities continued to remain under pressure after


major central banks across the globe advocated for
continued rise in interest rates to put a check on inflation
Monthly returns as on December 31 2022
which continued to remain at elevated levels. The U.S.
Federal Reserve, Bank of England and the European Central
S&P BSE Power -6.8% Bank slowed the pace of rate hikes but warned markets of a
S&P BSE Teck -6.1% long running campaign of interest rate hikes to contain
S&P BSE IT -6.0% inflation. Market participants worried that high inflation and
S&P BSE Auto -4.8% rising interest rates may push the global economy into a
S&P BSE Consumer Durables -4.3% recession.
S&P BSE Realty -3.9%

S&P BSE Health care -3.8%


• Market sentiments were further dampened as China
S&P BSE Sensex -3.6%
continued to grapple with soaring COVID-19 infections
Nifty 50 -3.5%
which renewed worries of lockdowns, restrictions in
economic activity and slowdown in global growth. Back
S&P BSE100 -3.4%
home, the Indian government also stepped up its vigil saying
S&P BSE FMCG -2.7%
that the battle against COVID-19 pandemic is not over yet.
S&P BSE Mid cap -2.5%
The Indian government re-introduced random testing of
S&P BSE Small cap -2.0%
international arrivals from Dec 24.
S&P BSE Capital Goods -1.5%

S&P BSE Oil & Gas -1.0% • However, further losses were restricted boosted after China
S&P BSE Bankex -0.9% decided to do away with its quarantine requirement for
S&P BSE PSU 0.0% inbound travelers starting Jan 8, 2023 which led to hopes of
S&P BSE Metal 3.0% normalcy in China’s economy. Bargain hunting further
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% contributed to the upside as market valuations turned
Source: MFI Explorer favourable after the recent spate of corrections. However,
trading activity towards the month end in the market
remained subdued as market participants stayed in holiday
mood which capped the gains.

Page | 2
Indian Fixed Income • Bond yields rose marginally after a range bound
movement during the month. Yields rose after the
Indicators (Yield %) December 30, 2022 November 30, 2022 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its monetary
Call Rate 6.52% 5.82% policy review raised key policy repo rate by 35 bps and
FBIL 1 Mn Term Mibor 7.68% 7.68% highlighted concerns over domestic inflationary
10‐Yr benchmark bond 7.33% 7.28% pressures. Losses increased after the U.S. Federal
Reverse Repo 3.35% 3.35% Reserve increased interest rates in its monetary policy
Repo 6.25% 5.90% review and added that interest rate hikes in U.S. would
Bank Rate 6.50% 6.15% continue for a longer period. Yields also rose as the
CRR 4.50% 4.50% weekly auction of government securities during the
Source: Refinitiv month added to debt supply. Yields rose further
following increase in yields on U.S. Treasuries, which
fueled concerns of foreign fund outflow from the
domestic debt market. However, losses were limited
10-Yr Benchmark Bond
after India’s consumer price index-based inflation
7.8
came below the Reserve Bank of India’s upper
7.3 tolerance level of 6% in Nov 2022 for the first time in
(%)

eleven months. Slowing consumer inflation in the U.S.


Yield

6.8
and India strengthened expectations of a likely
6.3
slowdown in interest rate hikes.
Dec-21 Apr-22 Aug-22 Dec-22

Source: CCIL • Yield on the 10-year benchmark bond rose 5 bps to


close at 7.33% compared with the previous months’
close of 7.28%. The benchmark paper yield rose 87 bps
India Yield Curve Shift (Month-on-Month) during 2022 year, which was the second consecutive
9.00
increase and the biggest calendar year rise since 2009.
9
Change in bps


8.00
Bond yields rose after a range bound movement
Yield (%)

7.00
5 during the month. Yields rose as market participants
remained on the side-lines and awaited the outcome
6.00 1
of the domestic monetary policy review, which was
due on Dec 7, 2022. Monetary Policy Committee
5.00 -3
1 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr
(MPC) in its policy review raised key policy repo rate by
35 bps and highlighted concerns over domestic
Change in bps Dec-22 Nov-22
inflationary pressures, which further increased yields.
Source: Refinitiv
Supply of sovereign debt following the weekly debt
auction also contributed to the losses.

• The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) increased interest rates


India Yield Curve Shift (Year- on- Year)
in its monetary policy review and added that interest
9.00 238
rate hikes in U.S. would continue for a longer period.
Change in bps

Increase in yields on U.S. Treasuries, which fueled


7.00 171
Yield (%)

concerns of foreign fund outflow from the domestic


debt market also triggered fall in the bond prices.
5.00 104
Market sentiments were dampened on concerns that
policymakers remained concerned over inflation,
3.00 37
1 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr which led to worries of more rate hikes by the MPC
Change in bps Dec-22 Dec-21 moving ahead.
Source: Refinitiv

Page | 3
Liquidity Monitor- M3 Supply and Net Borrowings
• On the other hand, below are the factors that restricted the
rise in bond yields during the month. Bond yields fell at the
16 796,000
start of the month after U.S. Fed Chairman adopted a more

Rs. in Crore
dovish stance on interest rates than the market anticipated.
13 510,000
in (%)

10 224,000 • Slowing consumer inflation in the U.S. and India


strengthened expectations of a likely slowdown in interest
7 -62,000 rate hikes, which restricted losses. Losses trimmed further
Dec-20 Aug-21 Apr-22 Dec-22
following upbeat demand at the auction of state
M3 Supply Net Borrowings
government securities. Overall market sentiment remained
Source: Refinitiv
subdued by the end of the month, due to lack of major
10 Year Corporate Bond Spread market-moving triggers.
(for AAA & AA bonds)
330
• The central bank of India conducted auctions of 91-, 182-
and 364-days Treasury Bills for a notified amount of Rs.
220
88,000 crore in Dec 2022 compared with Rs. 1,10,000 crore
Spread (in bps)

in the previous month. The average cut-off yield of 91-, 182-


110
and 364-days Treasury Bills stood at 6.39%, 6.75% and
6.89%, respectively, during the month under review
0
Dec-21 Apr-22 Aug-22 Dec-22 compared with the average yield of 6.45%, 6.77% and
AAA Bond Spread AA Bond Spread 6.91%, respectively in the previous month.
Source: Refinitiv

• The RBI also conducted auction of state development loans


Movements of Key Policy Rates in India (SDL) for a total notified amount of Rs. 55,909 crore (Rs.
8.0 53,462 crore was accepted amount), which is lower than
the scheduled amount of Rs. 79,767 crore during Dec 2022.
6.0 The average cut-off yield of 10 year SDL during Dec 2022 fell
to 7.61% from 7.71% in the previous month.
(%)

4.0
• In addition, the RBI also conducted auction of government
2.0
securities for a notified amount of Rs. 1,46,000 crore, for
Dec-20 Aug-21 Apr-22 Dec-22 which the amount was completely accepted with no
Reverse Repo Repo CRR
devolvement on primary dealers.
Source: RBI

• Liquidity conditions remained favorable during the month


under review. Systemic liquidity remained in surplus and
5 Year Corporate Bond Spread the average net India’s banking system liquidity surplus
(for AAA & AA bonds)
expanded to Rs. 1.03 lakh crore in Dec 2022 as compared to
160
Rs. 0.84 lakh crore in Nov 2022.
120
• Yield on gilt securities rose by up to 10 bps across the
Spread (in bps)

80 maturities, barring 1 year that fell 1 bps while 11 & 19 year


40
papers were unchanged. Yield rose the most on 2, 4, 5 & 15
year papers. Yield on corporate bonds fell in the range of 3
0 to 21 bps across the curve, leaving 2 & 3 year papers that
Dec-21 Apr-22 Aug-22 Dec-22
rose 6 & 2 bps, respectively. Yield fell the most on 15 year
AAA Bond Spread AA Bond Spread
paper and the least on 1 year paper. Difference in spread
between corporate bond and gilt securities contracted by
Source: Refinitiv
up to 31 bps across the segments. Spread contracted the
most on 15 year paper and the least on 1 year paper.

Page | 4
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET United States
Performance of Major International Markets (as on December • U.S. equity markets fell after the U.S. Federal Reserve in its
31, 2022)
much-anticipated monetary policy review raised its benchmark
Indices Country 1 Mth (%)
interest rate to the highest level in 15 years and indicated more
United States rate hikes moving ahead to tame inflation. The announcement
Nasdaq 100 U.S. -9.06 stoked concerns of recession and slowdown in global growth.
Nasdaq Composite U.S. -8.73 Market sentiment continued to be subdued on lingering
Asia Pacific concerns that higher interest rates may push the global
SET Composite Index Thailand 2.04
economy into recession.
Jakarta Composite Indonesia -3.26
Europe
Straits Times Index Singapore -1.19
KOSPI Index South Korea -9.55 • European equity markets fell after the U.S. Federal Reserve, the
Nikkei Stock Average 225 Japan -6.70 Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss
Taiwan SE Weighted Index Taiwan -4.99
National Bank, all raised their interest rates and signaled further
policy tightening in the coming months to tame inflation.
Shanghai Composite Index China -1.97
However, bargain hunting restricted further losses.
S&P BSE Sensex India -3.58
S&P/ASX 200 Australia -3.37 Asia
Europe • Asian equity markets mostly fell following negative cues from
FTSE 100 U.K. -1.60 U.S. and European equity markets. Markets were spooked as
CAC 40 France -3.93 key central banks across the globe raised interest rates and
DAX Index Germany -3.29 advocated for more rate hikes in the coming months which
Source: MFI Explorer & Refinitiv
triggered fears of a recession. The rapid expansion of Covid
infections in China and worries about the possibility of new
variants emerging also weighed on the market sentiment.

GLOBAL FIXED INCOME - U.S. TREASURY


U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Shift (Month-on-Month)
• Yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose 13 bps to close at
5.00 15.10 3.83% as compared to the previous month’s close of 3.70%.
13.60 13.00
11.50 14
Change in bps

4.33

Yield (%)

5.60
9 U.S. Treasury prices rose initially after U.S. Federal Reserve
5.90
3.67
4.40 4.10
3.10 4 and European Central Bank toned down the pace of rate
3.00 -1
hikes in their respective monetary policy reviews even
0.10
though both signaled more rate hikes moving ahead. Market
1 Month

10 Years

30 Years
1 Year
3 Months

6 Months

2 Years

3 Years

5 Years

7 Years

participants were of the view that central banks may have to


Change in bps 31-Dec-22 30-Nov-22
pivot to a less aggressive stance due to a weakening global
Source: Refinitiv economy

5.00 U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield • However, the trend reversed after Bank of Japan tweaked its
yield curve control strategy. While it kept broad policy
4.00
settings unchanged, Bank of Japan decided to allow the 10-
Yield ( %)

3.00 year bond yield to move 50 bps either side of its 0% target,
2.00 wider than the previous 25 bps band.
Movement during the Month
1.00
Dec-21 Apr-22 Aug-22 Dec-22 • U.S. Treasury prices fell further on concerns that the U.S.
Source: Refinitiv Federal Reserve will continue to tighten its monetary policy
at an aggressive pace to put a check on U.S. inflation which
continued to remain at elevated levels.

Page | 5
CURRENCY INR

Movement of Major Currencies(as onDecember 31, 2022) • The Indian rupee fell against U.S. dollar following greenback
demand from oil companies and other importers, losses in
Value domestic equity market and worries over continued interest
Currency 1 Mth 3 Mth 1 Yr
(as on31-Dec-2022)
rate hikes by global central banks to tame inflation.
U.S. Dollar 82.79 81.60 81.55 74.30

Pound Sterling 99.74 97.75 90.77 100.30


• However, comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair that
the U.S. central bank would slow the pace of rate hikes as
Euro 88.15 84.45 80.11 84.05 early as Dec 2022 and slowdown in the pace of rate hike by
Yen (Per Rs.100) 62.45 58.95 56.44 64.54 the Monetary Policy Committee restricted further losses.
Source: Refinitiv
Slowdown in U.S. consumer price inflation in Nov 2022 also
supported the domestic currency.

EURO

84
Rupee Versus Dollar during the year
• Euro rose against the U.S. dollar as the investor risk sentiment
improved after China announced that it will end quarantine
INR V/S USD

80 for inbound travelers on Jan 8, 2023, thus bringing an end to


its zero-Covid policy that was held for nearly three years.
76
• Euro rose further after the annual rate of consumer price
72 growth in U.S. slowed in Nov 2022 and German business
Dec-21 May-22 Aug-22 Dec-22
Source: Refinitiv
confidence rose more than expected in Dec 2022. It
continued to rise after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair said that
the central bank could slow the rate of interest rate hikes as
early as Dec.
COMMODITIES
Crude
Performance of Various Commodities • Brent crude oil prices fell as concerns of a recession and
Last Returns (in %) slowdown in global growth weighed on the market sentiment.
Commodities Closing Losses were extended as the number of Covid cases in China
(31-Dec-22) 1 Wk 1 Mth 6 Mth 1 Yr
Crude Brent
increased, lowering expectations for a rebound in fuel
83.32 -0.84 -4.32 -33.25 6.02 demand in the second-largest oil consumer in the world.
($/Barrel)
Gold ($/Oz) 1824.40 1.47 3.16 0.97 -0.22
Gold (Rs/10 gm) 54556.00 0.79 3.77 7.61 13.90 • However, further losses were restricted after Russian
Silver ($/Oz) 23.97 1.12 7.98 18.37 3.00
President warned of a cut in oil output in response to a price
Silver (Rs/Kg) 67780.00 0.77 9.74 15.09 9.74
Source: Refinitiv
cap on its crude oil exports. Supply tightness due to a lengthy
shutdown of the Keystone pipeline also contributed to the
upside.

Movement of Commodity Prices Over 1 Year


178 (Rebased to 100) Gold

Commodity prices

Gold prices rose after the annual rate of consumer price


140
growth in U.S. slowed in Nov 2022 which led to expectations
102 that the U.S. Federal Reserve might tone down its pace of rate
hikes.
64
Dec-21

Gold (US$)
Apr-22

Silver (US$)
Aug-22 Dec-22

Brent Crude
• Gold prices rose further as increase in number of COVID-19
Source: Refinitiv infection cases in China boosted the safe-haven appeal of the
yellow metal. However, gains were capped as U.S. GDP grew
more than expected in the third quarter of 2022.

Page | 6
Contact Details

Registered Office
RBL Bank Limited
1st Lane, Shahupuri, Kolhapur ‐ 416001. Maharashtra State.
Ph. : 0231 2656831/2653006

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RBL Bank Limited
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Lower Parel, Mumbai 400013
Ph. : 022 43020600

All information mentioned in this document pertains to the month ended December 31, 2022.

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