Professional Documents
Culture Documents
CONTENT
INDIAN ECONOMY 1
CURRENCY 6
COMMODITY 6
View from the Top
Global equity markets mostly closed on a subdued note during the month under review. Market sentiments
were rendered bearish amid uncertainty regarding the renewed COVID-19 scare in China. Market participants
weighed the impact of increasing coronavirus infection cases in China and the subsequent relaxation of
coronavirus restrictions in the region on global growth. Worries that central banks across the globe will keep
interest rates at a higher level for an extended period to tame inflation also weighed on the market sentiment.
U.S. equity markets fell on worries that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue with its rate hiking spree which
may lead to a recession in the U.S. economy. Also trading activity remained subdued due to lack of fresh
market triggers ahead of the year end with most of the market participants remaining in holiday mood and
away from their desks. However, bargain hunting restricted further losses.
European markets also came down after the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central
Bank, and the Swiss National Bank, all raised their interest rates and signaled further policy tightening in the
coming months to tame inflation. A surprise policy twist by the Bank of Japan also added to the losses.
Asian equity markets too closed the month in red as rapid expansion of Covid infections in China and worries
about the possibility of new variants emerging dampened market sentiments. Negative cues from U.S. and
European equity markets also played spoilsport. However, markets received some support after China
announced that it will end quarantine for inbound travelers on Jan 8, 2023.
Back home, domestic equity markets also mirrored the trends depicted by its peers in U.S, Europe and Asia.
Markets remained under pressure as China continued to grapple with soaring COVID-19 infections which
renewed worries of lockdowns, restrictions in economic activity and slowdown in global growth. The Indian
government also stepped up its surveillance as it re-introduced random testing of international arrivals from
Dec 24. Worries that global growth may take a hit due to rising interest rates also kept markets under pressure.
In the domestic debt market, bond yields rose marginally after a range bound movement during the month.
Yields rose after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its monetary policy review raised key policy repo rate
by 35 bps and highlighted concerns over domestic inflationary pressures. Losses increased after the U.S.
Federal Reserve increased interest rates in its monetary policy review and added that interest rate hikes in U.S.
would continue for a longer period.
Outlook
Domestic equity markets moving ahead will be dictated by incoming macroeconomic data. The COVID-19
situation in Çhina and global trends will also have its impact on the markets. Incoming domestic
macroeconomic data and corporate earning numbers for the quarter ended Dec 2022 will indicate the stability
and the resiliency of the Indian economy. Domestic retail inflation data will also remain in sharp focus as the
same will provide cues as what stance the Reserve Bank of India adopts in its monetary policy. In addition to
the above mentioned factors, movement of the rupee against the greenback, transaction trends by foreign
institutional investors, monetary policy action by central banks across the globe and global crude oil prices will
also have its impact on the markets to some extent.
After a sharp rise in yields during 2022, market participants are expecting yields to trade in a narrow range in
the short term, unless the supply calendar surprises very shockingly. The next key trigger will be the Union
Budget on Feb 01, 2023, the primary driver for bond yields. Also investors sentiment will majorly be dependent
on the RBI's rate hike cycle, which may be coming to an end.
We are pleased to bring to you the latest version of the Monthly Market Buzz for January. Happy Reading!!!
Surinder Chawla
Head – Branch Banking
INDIAN ECONOMY
Economic Releases in December-2022 • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its bi-monthly
Key Indicator Period Actual Previous monetary policy review raised key policy repo rate by 35 bps
Repo Rate Dec-22 6.25% 5.90% to 6.25% with immediate effect. This was the fifth
Reverse Repo Dec-22 3.35% 3.35% consecutive rate hike by the MPC in this fiscal. Five out of six
CRR Dec-22 4.50% 4.50%
members voted to increase the policy repo rate by 35 bps.
Index of Industrial With this rate hike, the repo rate has been raised by 225 bps
Oct-22 -4.00% 3.47%
Production (IIP) since May 2022. Consequently, the standing deposit facility
Wholesale Price Index
Nov-22 5.85% 8.39% (SDF) rate stands adjusted to 6.00%. The marginal standing
Inflation(WPI)
facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate stand adjusted to
Export (Y-o-Y) Nov-22 0.60% -16.65%
6.50%. The MPC also remained focused on withdrawal of
Import (Y-o-Y) Nov-22 5.37% 5.69% accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the
Source: RBI, Refinitiv target going forward, while supporting growth. Four out of
six members voted in favour of the same.
Monthly WPI Movement
11.00
and 4.2% rise in the same period of the previous year. IIP
6.00
contracted at the steepest pace since Aug 2020. For the
1.00
period from Apr to Oct of FY23, IIP growth slowed
Nov-20 Jul-21 Mar-22 Nov-22 considerably to 5.3% from a rise of 20.5% in the same
Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce & Industry
period of the previous fiscal. The manufacturing sector
output also declined 5.6% in Oct 2022 from a growth of
25.00 IIP Movement 3.3% in the same period of the previous year.
20.00
15.00
• India’s Wholesale price index-based inflation (WPI) slowed
(%)
10.00
5.00 considerably and touched 21-month low to 5.85% YoY in
Growth
0.00
-5.00 Nov 2022 from 8.39% rise in Oct 2022. The growth of WPI
-10.00 Food index eased to 2.17% in Nov 2022 from 6.48% in Oct
-15.00
Oct-21 Feb-22 Jun-22 Oct-22 2022 and 8.02% in Sep 2022.
IIP (%MoM) IIP (%YoY)
Source: Refinitiv
• Capital market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has set caps on the percentage of assets an
actively managed fund can park in a single company's debt instruments although the restriction varies depending on
each issuer's credit rating. A mutual fund scheme is not permitted to invest more than 10% of its net asset value in
debt and money market securities of corporations with a "AAA" rating, per the rules. The exposure limit for
organisations with a "AA" rating is8%, whereas it is 6% for organisations with a "A" rating. With the previous consent
of the board of trustees and the board of directors of the asset management business, the limitations may be
increased by an additional 2%.
• SEBI announced that it will shorten the period needed to register FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) to make
conducting business easier. The framework for cloud service adoption by SEBI Regulated Entities (REs)was also
accepted by the board. It would be a framework built on principles and comprise nine major guidelines that REs must
adhere to when providing cloud services.
• SEBI has prolonged the prohibition of futures and options trading in seven agricultural commodities, including wheat
and moong, for an additional year until Dec 2023 in an effort to control prices. The other agricultural products that
SEBI has suspended are soy bean and its derivatives, chana, mustard seeds and their derivatives, non-basmati paddy,
and crude palm oil.
Page | 1
Indian Equity Market • Domestic equity markets went down during the month
under review as key domestic headline indices S&P BSE
Growth of Rs 10,000 over Last 3-Yrs
Sensex and Nifty 50 fell in excess of 3%. Losses were
23,000 widespread as the mid cap segment and the small cap
segment also closed the month in red. However, unlike
Figure in INR
10400.00
63,200 projection of 7% in its monetary policy review. This was the
S&P BSE Sensex
6300.00
fifth consecutive rate hike since May 2022.
62,000
2200.00 60,800 • Markets fell further following heavy selling in IT, tech and
energy stocks after a major domestic IT company warned
-1900.00 59,600
1-Dec-22 11-Dec-22 21-Dec-22 31-Dec-22 that revenue growth in FY23 might be at the lower end of
earlier guidance as spending on IT services may come down
FII/FPI Net investment DII Net investment S&P BSE Sensex
due to muted demand and a slowdown in global growth.
Source: MFI Explorer
S&P BSE Oil & Gas -1.0% • However, further losses were restricted boosted after China
S&P BSE Bankex -0.9% decided to do away with its quarantine requirement for
S&P BSE PSU 0.0% inbound travelers starting Jan 8, 2023 which led to hopes of
S&P BSE Metal 3.0% normalcy in China’s economy. Bargain hunting further
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% contributed to the upside as market valuations turned
Source: MFI Explorer favourable after the recent spate of corrections. However,
trading activity towards the month end in the market
remained subdued as market participants stayed in holiday
mood which capped the gains.
Page | 2
Indian Fixed Income • Bond yields rose marginally after a range bound
movement during the month. Yields rose after the
Indicators (Yield %) December 30, 2022 November 30, 2022 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its monetary
Call Rate 6.52% 5.82% policy review raised key policy repo rate by 35 bps and
FBIL 1 Mn Term Mibor 7.68% 7.68% highlighted concerns over domestic inflationary
10‐Yr benchmark bond 7.33% 7.28% pressures. Losses increased after the U.S. Federal
Reverse Repo 3.35% 3.35% Reserve increased interest rates in its monetary policy
Repo 6.25% 5.90% review and added that interest rate hikes in U.S. would
Bank Rate 6.50% 6.15% continue for a longer period. Yields also rose as the
CRR 4.50% 4.50% weekly auction of government securities during the
Source: Refinitiv month added to debt supply. Yields rose further
following increase in yields on U.S. Treasuries, which
fueled concerns of foreign fund outflow from the
domestic debt market. However, losses were limited
10-Yr Benchmark Bond
after India’s consumer price index-based inflation
7.8
came below the Reserve Bank of India’s upper
7.3 tolerance level of 6% in Nov 2022 for the first time in
(%)
6.8
and India strengthened expectations of a likely
6.3
slowdown in interest rate hikes.
Dec-21 Apr-22 Aug-22 Dec-22
•
8.00
Bond yields rose after a range bound movement
Yield (%)
7.00
5 during the month. Yields rose as market participants
remained on the side-lines and awaited the outcome
6.00 1
of the domestic monetary policy review, which was
due on Dec 7, 2022. Monetary Policy Committee
5.00 -3
1 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr
(MPC) in its policy review raised key policy repo rate by
35 bps and highlighted concerns over domestic
Change in bps Dec-22 Nov-22
inflationary pressures, which further increased yields.
Source: Refinitiv
Supply of sovereign debt following the weekly debt
auction also contributed to the losses.
Page | 3
Liquidity Monitor- M3 Supply and Net Borrowings
• On the other hand, below are the factors that restricted the
rise in bond yields during the month. Bond yields fell at the
16 796,000
start of the month after U.S. Fed Chairman adopted a more
Rs. in Crore
dovish stance on interest rates than the market anticipated.
13 510,000
in (%)
4.0
• In addition, the RBI also conducted auction of government
2.0
securities for a notified amount of Rs. 1,46,000 crore, for
Dec-20 Aug-21 Apr-22 Dec-22 which the amount was completely accepted with no
Reverse Repo Repo CRR
devolvement on primary dealers.
Source: RBI
Page | 4
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET United States
Performance of Major International Markets (as on December • U.S. equity markets fell after the U.S. Federal Reserve in its
31, 2022)
much-anticipated monetary policy review raised its benchmark
Indices Country 1 Mth (%)
interest rate to the highest level in 15 years and indicated more
United States rate hikes moving ahead to tame inflation. The announcement
Nasdaq 100 U.S. -9.06 stoked concerns of recession and slowdown in global growth.
Nasdaq Composite U.S. -8.73 Market sentiment continued to be subdued on lingering
Asia Pacific concerns that higher interest rates may push the global
SET Composite Index Thailand 2.04
economy into recession.
Jakarta Composite Indonesia -3.26
Europe
Straits Times Index Singapore -1.19
KOSPI Index South Korea -9.55 • European equity markets fell after the U.S. Federal Reserve, the
Nikkei Stock Average 225 Japan -6.70 Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss
Taiwan SE Weighted Index Taiwan -4.99
National Bank, all raised their interest rates and signaled further
policy tightening in the coming months to tame inflation.
Shanghai Composite Index China -1.97
However, bargain hunting restricted further losses.
S&P BSE Sensex India -3.58
S&P/ASX 200 Australia -3.37 Asia
Europe • Asian equity markets mostly fell following negative cues from
FTSE 100 U.K. -1.60 U.S. and European equity markets. Markets were spooked as
CAC 40 France -3.93 key central banks across the globe raised interest rates and
DAX Index Germany -3.29 advocated for more rate hikes in the coming months which
Source: MFI Explorer & Refinitiv
triggered fears of a recession. The rapid expansion of Covid
infections in China and worries about the possibility of new
variants emerging also weighed on the market sentiment.
4.33
•
Yield (%)
5.60
9 U.S. Treasury prices rose initially after U.S. Federal Reserve
5.90
3.67
4.40 4.10
3.10 4 and European Central Bank toned down the pace of rate
3.00 -1
hikes in their respective monetary policy reviews even
0.10
though both signaled more rate hikes moving ahead. Market
1 Month
10 Years
30 Years
1 Year
3 Months
6 Months
2 Years
3 Years
5 Years
7 Years
5.00 U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield • However, the trend reversed after Bank of Japan tweaked its
yield curve control strategy. While it kept broad policy
4.00
settings unchanged, Bank of Japan decided to allow the 10-
Yield ( %)
3.00 year bond yield to move 50 bps either side of its 0% target,
2.00 wider than the previous 25 bps band.
Movement during the Month
1.00
Dec-21 Apr-22 Aug-22 Dec-22 • U.S. Treasury prices fell further on concerns that the U.S.
Source: Refinitiv Federal Reserve will continue to tighten its monetary policy
at an aggressive pace to put a check on U.S. inflation which
continued to remain at elevated levels.
Page | 5
CURRENCY INR
Movement of Major Currencies(as onDecember 31, 2022) • The Indian rupee fell against U.S. dollar following greenback
demand from oil companies and other importers, losses in
Value domestic equity market and worries over continued interest
Currency 1 Mth 3 Mth 1 Yr
(as on31-Dec-2022)
rate hikes by global central banks to tame inflation.
U.S. Dollar 82.79 81.60 81.55 74.30
EURO
84
Rupee Versus Dollar during the year
• Euro rose against the U.S. dollar as the investor risk sentiment
improved after China announced that it will end quarantine
INR V/S USD
Gold (US$)
Apr-22
Silver (US$)
Aug-22 Dec-22
Brent Crude
• Gold prices rose further as increase in number of COVID-19
Source: Refinitiv infection cases in China boosted the safe-haven appeal of the
yellow metal. However, gains were capped as U.S. GDP grew
more than expected in the third quarter of 2022.
Page | 6
Contact Details
Registered Office
RBL Bank Limited
1st Lane, Shahupuri, Kolhapur ‐ 416001. Maharashtra State.
Ph. : 0231 2656831/2653006
Corporate Office
RBL Bank Limited
One India Bulls Center, Tower 2, 6th Floor, 841, Senapati Bapat Marg,
Lower Parel, Mumbai 400013
Ph. : 022 43020600
All information mentioned in this document pertains to the month ended December 31, 2022.
Disclaimer:
All” information contained in this document has been obtained from ICRA Analytics Limited from sources believed by it to be accurate
and reliable. Although reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information herein is true, such information is provided ‘as is’
without any warranty of any kind by ICRA Analytics Limited in particular, makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to
the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of any such information. RBL Bank acts as a distributor and does not warrant its
completeness and accuracy. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument.
Publishing lists of products merely indicates the funds and securities which we deal in and shall not be construed as recommended
schemes by RBL Bank. Clients are advised to obtain individual financial advice based on their risk profile before taking any action
based on the information contained in this material. Clients alone shall have the right to choose their investments and shall be
responsible to invest in with their objectives and risk appetite, for which we holds no liability. RBL Bank does not guarantee the
performance of products listed in the collateral and accepts no responsibility whatsoever including any loss suffered by clients resulting
from investing in such funds. Investment products are subject to market risks including the possible loss of the principal amount
invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results, prices can go up or down. Please read the Key Information
Memorandum(s)/Scheme Investment Document(s) & Statement of Additional Information/ Term Sheet/ Prospectus carefully before
investing. The term "RBL Bank” or "the Bank" shall mean RBL Bank Limited. Readers are requested to click here for ICRA Analytics
disclaimer - https://icraanalytics.com/home/Disclaimer.