Theory of Change and

Impact Pathway

Moises Neil V. Seriño, PhD

Dean, College of Management and Economics
Director, Visayas Socio-Economic Research & Data Analytics Center
Visayas State University
 Outcomes-based
• Before, we focus on measuring and
reporting inputs and outputs
– How many textbooks were distributed
– How many participated in the training
– How frequent we clean the surroundings

• Now, we focus whether the programs

have achieved the goals or the
outcomes
 Outcomes-based
• Research, extension, development
programs and policies are typically
designed to change outcomes:
– Raising incomes
– Improving learning
– Reducing illness
– Improving environmental quality
– Reducing pollution
– Reducing unemployment
– Increasing happiness
Achieving outcomes

theoryofchange.org
 Achieving outcomes
• Theory of Change is a comprehensive
description and illustration of how and
why a desired change is expected to
happen.

• It is focused in mapping out or “filling in”

what has been described as the “missing
middle” between what a project does (its
activities or interventions) and how these
lead to desired goals being achieved.
Achieving outcomes

theoryofchange.org
 Achieving outcomes
• Theory of change reflects the hypothesis
of how the intervention is expected to
achieve the outcomes

• Theory of change (ToC) depicts the

sequence of events leading to outcomes

• ToC is a description of how the

intervention is supposed to deliver the
desired outcomes
 Theory of Change
• The theory of change provide the
important narrative as to how and why
the change can happen. It provides a
causal link of inputs to outcomes

• Developing your theory of change can

help you improve the project design
 Theory of change
• Can help you map out the projects
inputs, activities, outputs that are
delivered, outcomes from the expected
changes of the beneficiaries

• The best time to develop a theory of

change is at the beginning of the
design phase of the project
 Theory of Change
• There are several models / frameworks
that you can use to operationalize
theory of change.
• The basic elements of theory of change
– A causal link
– Mapping of inputs to outcomes
– Specification of outside conditions and
influences
– Key assumptions
 Theory of Change
• There are several ways of reflecting
theory of change (World Bank, 2016)

1. Logical framework (logframe)

2. Logic model
3. Results chain
4. Outcomes model
5. Theoretical model
 Logic Model
• A logic model is a graphic depiction
(road map) that presents the
shared relationships among the
resources, activities, outputs,
outcomes, and impact for your
program. It depicts the relationship
between your program’s activities and
its intended effects.

Source: CDC, 2018

Logic Model

Source: CDC, 2018

Logic Model

Source: CDC, 2018

 Results Chain
• Results chains establishes the causal
link from initiation of the program,
beginning with resources available, to
the end, looking at long term goals

• It sets out the plausible outline to

establish pathways how long term
goals or impacts are achieved

Source: WorldBank, 2016

Results Chain
IMPACTS

Source: WorldBank, 2016

 Parts of the results chain
• Inputs = resources at the disposal of
the project, including staff, equipment,
budget
• Activities = actions taken or work
performed to convert inputs to outputs
• Outputs = tangible goods and services
that the project activities produce, these
are directly under control of the
implementers
6Ps Outputs of DOST
 Parts of the results chain
• Outcomes = results likely achieved
once the beneficiaries USE the project
outputs, these are usually achieved in
the short run or medium term. Not
under direct control of the implementers
• Impact = final results indicating whether
the project goals were met. This can be
influenced by multiple factors over a
long period of time
Example of Results Chain

Source: WorldBank, 2016

Example

Source: WorldBank, 2016

 Outcomes Model
• This model is based on a hierarchy of
sequential steps in planning,
implementing, and evaluating
programs. It helps answer four basic
questions: Why have a program? How
should it be conducted? Has the
program design been implemented?
What are the benefits delivered?

Source: Harvard, 2005

 Bennett’s Hierarchy of
Program Evidence
Level Description
7 End Results/ Changes in Conditions: Changes in economic, civic, social
conditions of the target group of people in the community (i.e., increase
in productivity, increase in income, improved livelihood, etc.)
6 Behavioral Changes: Changes in behavior, practice, decisions, policies,
etc. of the target groups (i.e., change in farm practices, etc.)
5 KASA Changes: Changes in Knowledge, Attitude, Skills, and Aspirations
(i.e., increased knowledge about new technologies, change in attitude
towards the program or project, etc.)
4 Reactions: Changes in the stakeholders’ opinion about the program, or
project
3 Involvement: How many stakeholders participated in the program or
project
2 Activities: What activities were developed or delivered (i.e., training/
seminar conducted, farm inputs shared with other farmers, etc.).
1 Inputs: Changes in terms of what is invested (i.e., staff, time, funds,
materials, equipment, technology, etc.)
 Theoretical Models
• A theory-based approach maps out the
causal chain from inputs to outcomes
and impact, and tests the underlying
assumptions
• Components:
1. map out the causal chain
2. understand context
3. anticipate heterogeneity
4. use a credible counterfactual
5. use rigorous factual analysis; and
6. use mixed methods
 Impact Pathway
• An impact pathway is derived from a
ToC and describes how the project
activities and outputs relate to
outcomes as well as the longer-term
developmental changes (impact)

• An impact pathway is presented in a

diagram mapping out project inputs to
outputs, outcomes and then impacts
 Theory of Change and
Impact Pathway
• Theory of change is the hypothesis of
how the desired impact is to be
achieved. This is usually prepare during
the design phase of the project

• Impact pathway is derived from the

theory of change. This is developed
usually during the project evaluation or
impact assessment phase
 Theory of Change and
Impact Pathway
• Theory of change outlines what you
intended to achieve

• Impact pathway included both intended

and unintended outcomes of the project
 ACIAR’s Impact Pathway

Project Inputs

Project Outputs

Project Outcomes

Project Impacts

Project Benefits
PCAARRD’S
Framework
Examples of impact pathway
Results chain for
impact pathway
Results chain for
impact pathway
Results chain for
impact pathway
 Selecting outcomes
indicators
• Indicators are useful in generating the
needed data to support whether
outcomes were achieved

• Clearly articulate your impact pathway

to identify indicators

• Specify the indicators for outputs and

outcomes
Selecting indicators

Source: CDC, 2018

 Checklist for indicators
• Good indicators are SMART (specific,
measurable, attributable, realistic and
targeted)?
Ø Specific - clearly defined or identified
Ø Measurable - can be readily obtained
Ø Attributable - the indicator is linked to the
project
Ø Realistic - feasible, realistic cost and time
ØTargeted – tailored to the beneficiary or
targeted population
 Checklist for indicators
• What is the source of data for the
indicators?

• What is the frequency of data

collection? – monitoring and evaluation

• What are the risks involved? How they

might affect the timing and quality of
the indicators?
 Dimensions of Impact
Evaluation
• Economic Impact
• Social Impact
• Environmental Impact
 Example:
Economic dimension of impact
 Example:
Social dimension of impact
 Example:
Environmental dimension of impact
Thank you very much