Population Projection for 2041 For Karwar LPA

Year 2001 = 99159 Karwar Population (Census Data)

Year 2011 = 111215 Karwar population (Census Data)

By Arithmetic Progression Method Projecting the Karwar Population to

2021, 2031, 2041 year.

TYPE 1 : Arithmetic Progression equation : 𝐏𝐭 = 𝐏𝟎 (𝟏 + 𝐫𝐭)

Here,
dP
= constant = r ;
dt
Pt = Population at any given time
P0 = Population at time 0
t = Time period between P0 and Pt

Lets find r,

Pt = P0 (1 + rt)

Population at 2011 = Population at 2001 (1+r10)

111215 = 99159 (1+r10)
111215
1+r10 = = 1.12158
99159

10r = 1.12158 – 1 = 0.12158

0.12158
r= = 0.012158
10

r = 0.012158
Now,
Projecting Population to 2021: Pt = P0 (1 + rt)
P2021 = P2011 (1 + 0.012158 x 10)
P2021 = 111215 (1 + 0.012158 x 10)
P2021 = 111215 (1.12158)
P2021 = 124737

Projected Population of 2021 = 124737

Projecting Population to 2031: Pt = P0 (1 + rt)

P2031 = P2011 (1 + 0.012158 x 20)
P2031 = 111215 (1 + 0.012158 x 20)
P2031 = 111215 (1.24316)
P2031 = 138259

Projected Population of 2031 = 138259

Projecting Population to 2041: Pt = P0 (1 + rt)

P2041 = P2011 (1 + 0.012158 x 30)
P2041 = 111215 (1 + 0.012158 x 30)
P2041 = 111215 (1.36474)
P2041 = 151780

Projected Population of 2041 = 151780

Hence,
By Arithmetic Progression Method we have projected Populations of 2021,
2031, 2041 years.

Karwar LPA Population in 2001 = 99159

Karwar LPA Population in 2011 = 111215
Projected Karwar LPA Population in 2021 = 124737
Projected Karwar LPA Population in 2031 = 138259
Projected Karwar LPA Population in 2041 = 151780

TYPE 2 : Geographic Increase Method : 𝐏𝐭 = 𝐏𝟎 (𝟏 + 𝐫𝐠)𝐭

Here,
rg = Rate of Growth;
𝐏𝐭 = Population at any given time
𝐏𝟎 = Population at time 0
t = time period in decades

Lets find rg,

Rate of growth per decade between
2011 and 2001 = 0.12158
2021 and 2011 = 0.12158
2031 and 2021 = 0.10840
2041 and 2031 = 0.09449

1
Geometric Mean = (0.12158 x 0.12158 x 0.10840 x 0.09449)4
Geometric Mean = (0.0001575)0.25
Geometric Mean = 0.112 = Rate of growth
Projected Population of Karwar in 2041
P2041 = P2011 (1 + rg)t
P2041 = 111215(1 + 0.112)3
P2041 = 111215 x 1.375
𝐏𝟐𝟎𝟒𝟏 = 𝟏𝟓𝟐𝟗𝟐𝟏

So,
By Geometric Increase Method we have Projected Population of 2041 as
152921

(𝐏𝐩 −𝐏𝐪 ) 𝐭
TYPE 3 : Registrar general method : 𝐏𝐭 = 𝐏𝐩 + 𝐏𝐩 𝐱
𝐏𝐪 𝟏𝟎

Here,
Pt = Population at any given time
Pp = Population at the nearest recent census
Pq = Population of the previous census to Pp
t = time period between Pp and Pt

Hence,
Projected Population of Karwar in 2041
(P2011 − P2001 ) t
P2041 = P2011 + P2011 x
P2001 10
(111215 − 99159) 30
P2041 = 111215 + 111215 x
99159 10
P2041 = 111215 + 40566

𝐏𝟐𝟎𝟒𝟏 = 𝟏𝟓𝟏𝟕𝟖𝟏
So,
By Registrar General Method we have Projected Population of 2041 as
151781

SL.NO Methods 2041 Population

1 Arithmetic Progression Method 151780

2 Geometric Progression Method 152921

3 Registrar General Method 151781

Then,
Rounding off to the highest population projected out of three different
methods :
The projected population of Karwar LPA in 2041 will be 1,53,000.

Note: Due to Migration

It is expected that about 60,000 more persons may settle in Karwar for
the next twenty years because of the following reasons.

1. About 20,000 persons are expected to settle in Karwar due to the

already commenced all weather port in Karwar. Most of the expected
families will be of labour class, technical persons, heavy vehicle drivers
etc.,
2. About 25,000 persons are expected to be rehabilitated in Karwar in
view of development of Naval Base in Karwar. It is stated that about 1
Lakh population will be displaced by Naval Base called projected Sea
 –Bird. So additional supporting 25,000 population may settle in
Karwar as an impact of Naval Base from other places.
3. With the Operation of Kaiga Nuclear Power Plant from 2000, about
15000 additional persons are expected to settle in Karwar.

Thus about 60000 persons are expected to settle in Karwar over next
20 years.

This gives a total population of 2,13,000 and the same has

been used for further calculation purpose.