ICSG PRESS RELEASE Date Issued: 21st December 2023

Copper: Preliminary Data for October 2023

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data for October world copper supply and demand in its
December 2023 Copper Bulletin. The Bulletin and ICSG online statistical database provide data, on a country basis, for
copper mine, smelter, refined and semis production, copper refined usage, trade, stocks and prices. The Bulletin is available
for sale (annual subscription €600/€1050 for orders originating from/outside institutions based in ICSG member countries).
Preliminary data indicates that world copper mine production increased by approximately 1% over the first ten months of
2023, driven by a 1% rise in concentrate production with solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) remaining essentially unchanged.
 Although global mine production over the first ten months of 2023 benefitted from some start-
ups and expansions, world growth was limited by operational issues in Chile, China,
Indonesia, Panama and the United States, mainly in the 1st half of the year.
 Production in Chile declined by 1.6% in the first ten months, primarily due to the fact that a
number of mines in the country were negatively impacted by operational issues, lower grades
and reduced water supply due to a drought in the central region. However, after a 3.9% YoY
decline in 1st half, Chilean production improved presenting 4% YoY growth in the 3rd quarter.
 Indonesian output was down by 8% due to operational constraints at the Grasberg and Batu Hijau mines in 1st half; Panamian
production growth was limited at 4% as output at Cobre Panama mine was interrupted for 15 days as a result of export restrictions
imposed by the Maritime Port Authority (mine production has been suspended again since end of November); United States output
declined by 9% principally due to reduced production at Kennecott as a result of weather related issues and the technical failure of
a conveyor belt; Chinese production was lower by 7% principally as a consequence of operational issues at two major mines, Jiama
and Julong.
 In Peru, local communities’ actions continued to impact production at a number of mines. However, despite these constraints
Peruvian mine production increased by 14%. This rise was primarily a result of additional output from Quellaveco (commissioned
in July 2022), the continued ramp-up at Mina Justa and improved production at Cuajone and Las Bambas after last year’s temporary
shutdown.
 Output in the D.R.Congo (DRC) is estimated to have grown by about 7% mainly as a consequence of the expansion of the Kamoa
mine together with new/expanded capacity at other mines.
Preliminary data indicates that world refined copper production increased by about 5.5% during the first ten months of 2023
with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning from ores) up by about 5% and secondary production (from scrap) up by 8%.
 Growth in world refined production was mainly as a result of strong performances in China
and the DRC, due to expanded capacity, with global output elsewhere declining by 0.7%.
 Preliminary official Chinese refined production data indicate a rise of about 14%.
 Refined output is estimated to have grown by 5% in the DRC due to the continued ramp-
up of new or expanded electrowinning plants.
 Chilean total refined copper production was down by 3.4%: electrowinning (SX-EW) output
declined by 4.8% and electrolytic production by 0.8%.
 A series of maintenances, accidents or operational issues led to declines in production in a number of other major producing
countries including Japan (-1.9%), the United States (-10%), India (-5.5%), Indonesia (-25%), Finland (-12%) and Sweden (-46%).
 Preliminary data indicate that global secondary refined production (from scrap) increased by 8% mainly due to a rise in China.
Preliminary data suggests that world apparent refined copper usage grew by about 4% over the first ten months of 2023:
 Growth in world refined usage has been mainly supported by strong apparent demand in
China, with usage in the rest of the world estimated to have declined.
 Chinese apparent demand (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks), grew by
around 9.5%. (Chinese net refined copper imports declined by 6% but refined production
increased by 14%).
 Lower demand in the EU, Japan and the United States negatively impacted world ex-China
refined usage which is estimated to have declined by about 3%.

Preliminary world refined copper balance during the first ten months of 2023 indicates an apparent deficit of about 51,000 t:
 In developing its global market balance, ICSG uses an apparent demand calculation for China that does not consider changes in
unreported stocks [State Reserve Bureau (SRB), producer, consumer, merchant/trader, bonded]. To facilitate global market
analysis, however, an additional line item - Refined World Balance Adjusted for Chinese Bonded Stock Changes - is included in
the attached table that adjusts the world refined copper balance based on an average estimate of changes in bonded inventories
provided by two consultants with expertise in China’s copper market.
 In the first ten months of 2023, the world refined copper balance, based on Chinese apparent usage (excluding changes in
bonded/unreported stocks), indicated a preliminary deficit of about 51,000 t. The world refined copper balance adjusted for
estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks suggested a market deficit of about 32,000 t.
Copper Prices and Stocks:
 Based on the average of estimates provided by two independent consultants, China’s bonded stocks are thought to have
increased by about 19,000 t in the first ten months of 2023 compared to the year-end 2022 level.
 As of the end of November 2023, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 227,224 t, an
increase of 37,719 t (+20%) from stocks held at the end of December 2022. Stocks were down at SHFE (-48%) and at COMEX
(-46%) and up at the LME (+97%).
 The average LME cash price for November was US$ 8,173.95 /t, up 3% from the October average of US$ 7,939.66 /t. The 2023
high and low copper prices were US$ 9,436 /t (on 18th Jan) and US$ 7,812.50 /t (on 5th October), respectively, and the year
average was US$ 8,477.41 /t (-3.6% below the 2022 annual average).
(World Refined Copper Usage and Supply Trends table on next page)
Please visit the ICSG website www.icsg.org for further copper market related information.

World Refined Copper Usage and Supply Trends

Thousand metric tonnes, copper

2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023
Jan-Oct Jul Aug Sep Oct
World Copper Mine Production
20,669 20,768 21,301 21,950 18,089 18,225 1,871 1,877 1,884 1,927
(Concentrates & SX-EW)
World Copper Mine Capacity 24,328 25,197 26,237 27,021 22,429 23,433 2,402 2,410 2,339 2,425

Mine Capacity Utilization Rate(% ) 85.0 82.4 81.2 81.2 80.7 77.8 77.9 77.9 80.5 79.4

Primary Refined Copper Production 20,152 20,829 20,815 21,248 17,636 18,514 1,835 1,895 1,943 1,955

Secondary Refined Copper Production 4,007 3,843 4,149 4,153 3,433 3,706 361 378 387 383
World Refined Copper Production
24,159 24,672 24,964 25,401 21,069 22,220 2,196 2,274 2,330 2,338
(Primary & Secondary)
World Copper Refinery Capacity 29,565 30,216 30,733 31,426 26,118 26,819 2,744 2,749 2,666 2,761

Refinery Capacity Utilization Rate (% ) 81.7 81.7 81.2 80.8 80.7 82.9 80.0 82.7 87.4 84.7

World Refined Copper Usage 1/ 24,321 24,953 25,216 25,835 21,413 22,271 2,206 2,299 2,386 2,391
World Refined Copper Stocks
1,215 1,236 1,210 1,373 1,352 1,340 1,268 1,289 1,350 1,340
End of Period
Period Stock Change -12 21 -26 163 142 -33 -17 21 61 -10

Refined Copper Balance 2/ -162 -281 -252 -434 -344 -51 -10 -25 -56 -53
Seasonally Adjusted Refined Balance
-370 -80 17 -53 14 -48
3/
Refined Balance Adjusted for Chinese
-340 -171 -450 -561 -454 -32 -19 -27 -62 -52
bonded stock change 4/

Due to the nature of statistical reporting, the published data should be considered as preliminary as some figures are
currently based on estimates and could change.
1/ Based on Chinese and EU apparent usage.
2/ Surplus/deficit is calculated using refined production minus refined usage.
3/ Surplus/deficit is calculated using seasonally adjusted refined production minus seasonally adjusted refined usage.
4/ For details of this adjustment see the paragraph of the press release on “World refined copper balance”.