Zaimi - Numerical Method and New Analytical Models

Energy Conversion and Management 220 (2020) 113071
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Energy Conversion and Management

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enconman
Numerical method and new analytical models for determining temporal T

changes of model-parameters to predict maximum power and efficiency of
PV module operating outdoor under arbitrary conditions
M. Zaimi, H. El Achouby, O. Zegoudi, A. Ibral, E.M. Assaid
⁎
Electronics and Optics of Semiconductor Nanostructures and Sustainable Energy Team, Laboratory of Instrumentation of Measure and Control, Department of Physics,
Faculty of Sciences, Chouaïb Doukkali University, P. O. Box 20, El Jadida, Morocco
ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT
Keywords: In this work, a novel approach has been presented to predict real-time maximum power, conversion efficiency,
Maximum power daily, monthly and yearly energy production of photovoltaic modules operating outdoor from dawning to
Conversion efficiency evening under changing conditions of illumination and temperature. One-diode electronic circuit with five ir-
Energy production radiance and temperature dependent model-parameters has been used to describe the photovoltaic module.
Module temperature
Temporal monitoring of temperature and module photovoltaic metrics, during one reference day, has been used
Plane-of-array irradiance
Real-time values of model-parameters
to solve the system of non-linear equations corresponding to key-points of current-voltage curve to determine
real-time values of model-parameters. New analytical formulas have been proposed to reproduce variations of
daytime values of model-parameters as functions of effective irradiance and module temperature for all days of
the year. To evaluate accuracy of our predictive approach, meteorological and photovoltaic data recorded by
NREL researchers for four PV modules coming from different technologies, which were operating outdoor at
Cocoa (Florida) and Eugene (Oregon) during one year have been used. Predicted values of current-voltage
characteristics, maximum power and efficiency at arbitrary times in arbitrary days have been compared to
respective experimental values. NRMSE and NE have also been calculated to find that these normalized in-
dicators have not exceeded 3%.
1. Introduction Renewable energies appear as a potential solution to reduce glasshouse

gas emissions and to warrant energy security. Today, among the most
Energy production and management are challenges of great im- promising means of sustainable energy production, photovoltaic cells
portance that humanity will face for years to come. Nowadays, energy seem to be the most appropriate and the most efficient for the pro-
demand are steadily increasing all around the world [1,2]. In- duction of renewable electricity. Electricity production from solar
dustrialized countries need energy to maintain their advance and technology raised by higher than 30% during 2018 to more than 570
emerging countries need energy to get out of underdevelopment and to TWh [4]. With this increase, the part of solar energy in global electricity
ensure their progress. Today, most of the world's energy production production exceeded 2.5% for the first time ever [4]. In 2018, solar
comes from fossil sources whose excessive consumption implies natural potential additions all over the world totaled 97.9 GW, which was
resources reduction and energy reserves exhaustion in a way that poses about 50% of the total net growth in renewable energy capacity [4].
a threat on future generations [1–3]. Moreover, burning out fossil fuels Considering the rapid expansion of the PV modules market, the
leads to emissions of glasshouse gas that raise earth mean temperature, strong growth of their production and the attention devoted to re-
increase air pollution and imply many environmental problems [2]. newable energies throughout the world, modeling photovoltaic mod-
According to what has been reported in the literature [1], more than ules has become a very important topic for researchers working in the
64% of electricity produced in 2017 came from oil, natural gas and coal solar energy field. Efficient modeling of photovoltaic modules em-
[1]. To tackle environmental problems, to sustain the supply of energy powers to predict, with a high degree of accuracy, PV metrics, max-
markets and to decrease the percentage of electricity generated from imum power, conversion efficiency and generated electricity of pho-
fossil fuels, an energetic transition to renewable energy is necessary. tovoltaic systems serving under real environmental conditions, only by
⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: assaid.e@ucd.ac.ma (E.M. Assaid).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2020.113071
Received 4 March 2020; Received in revised form 16 May 2020; Accepted 5 June 2020
0196-8904/ © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
M. Zaimi, et al. Energy Conversion and Management 220 (2020) 113071
Nomenclature IMPP Maximum power current of PV module (A)

IMPP, ref Maximum power current of PV module at reference con-
Abbreviations ditions (A)
V Voltage drop between PV module terminals (V)
AM Air Mass VTh Thermal agitation voltage (V)
I-V Current-voltage VOC Voltage drop between PV panel terminals at open-circuit
MBST Module Back-Surface Temperature (V)
NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory VOC, ref Open-circuit voltage of PV module at reference conditions
NE Normalized Error (V)
NRMSE Normal Root Mean Square Error Maximum power voltage (V)
POA Plane-of-array VMPP, ref Maximum power voltage at reference conditions (V)
P-V Power-voltage P Output power of PV module (W)
SNL Sandia National Laboratory PMPP Maximum power of PV module (W)
STC Standard Test Conditions (S = 1000 Wm - 2, T = 298.15 K PIN Incoming power
and AM1.5G spectrum) S Effective solar irradiance (W/m2)
Sref Reference effective solar irradiance (1 kW/m2)
Symbols S Normalized solar irradiance
Ki Temperature coefficient of ISC (A.C−1)
t Time (Hour) Kv Temperature coefficient of VOC (V.C−1)
Ideality factor Al Optimization coefficients of analytical formula of
ref Ideality factor at STC Bl Optimization coefficients of analytical formula of RS
RS Series resistance of PV module (Ω) Cl Optimization coefficients of analytical formula of RSh
GP Parallel conductance of PV module (Ω−1) KV , OC Temperature coefficient corresponding to proposed model
RSh Parallel resistance of PV module (Ω) of open-circuit voltage.
IPV Module photo-current (A) V , OC , V , OC , V , OC and V , OC Irradiance coefficients corresponding to
ISat Saturation current (A) proposed model of open-circuit voltage.
W (x ) LambertW function KV , MPP Temperature coefficient corresponding to proposed model
NS Number of PV cells connected in series within photo- of Maximum power voltage.
voltaic module V , MPP , V , MPP , V , MPP and V , MPP Irradiance coefficients corre-
kB Boltzmann’s constant (1.3806503 × 10−23J/K) sponding to proposed model of Maximum power voltage.
q Elementary charge (1.60217646 × 10−19 C) Smodule Module front area (m2)
T Module temperature (K) Eff Efficiency of PV module
Tref Module reference temperature (298.15 K) i Subscript corresponding to the time t
TAmb Ambient temperature (K) j Subscript corresponding to I j - Vj curves
I Current flow through PV module (A) Ni Number of (I j , Vj ) points measured at the time ti
ISC Short-circuit current of PV module (A) M Number of quantities measured during one day with a
ISC, ref Short-circuit current of PV module at reference conditions constant time step equal to five minutes
(A)
monitoring temperature and incoming solar irradiance [5]. It also helps Chouder et al. [16] and Bai et al. [18] used single-diode model with five
to achieve efficient maximum power point tracking by providing exact model-parameters and suggested analytical formulas to portray evol-
information on maximum power coordinates [6]. ving of these parameters versus S and T and to predict maximum power
According to what has been reported in the literature, to predict of PV module under diverse environmental conditions. Recently, Zaimi
maximum power coordinates and conversion efficiency, researchers et al. [29] supposed that parallel conductance and series resistance are
have to follow one of two most usable approaches. The first one gives a independent on S and T and equal to reference values. They proposed
shortcut to maximum power by giving empirical models describing its three mathematical models to describe variations of photocurrent,
variation versus Module Back-Surface (MBS) temperature and Plane-Of- ideality factor, and saturation current as functions of S and T to foresee
Array (POA) irradiance. The coefficients in empirical models are I-V curves and to deduce maximum power and conversion efficiency of
usually determined by tuning long-term experimental data to analytical a PV module operating outdoor under real environmental conditions
expressions [7]. These empirical models enable forecasting of max- [29]. Nunes et al. used GCPSO method [28] to determine model-para-
imum power and conversion efficiency by monitoring MBS temperature meters of single-diode and double-diode equivalent circuits and to
and POA irradiance [7–13]. generate I-V curves and characteristic points for a PV module operating
According to the second approach, researchers describe the photo- outdoor under changing environmental conditions [28]. In the same
voltaic module by single- or multiple-diode equivalent circuits [14–37]. way, Chen et al. used EHA-NMS optimization algorithm [33] to extract
They extract values of model-parameters for PV module under reference values of five model-parameters of a PV module operating outdoor
conditions and propose numerical procedures or empirical expressions under real environmental conditions and subsequently compared values
to describe variation of model-parameters against MBS temperature and of these model-parameters with those calculated via empirical models
POA irradiance, which allow them to generate current-voltage char- coming from literature for various values of MBS temperature and POA
acteristics and to determine variation of maximum power and all key- irradiance.
points coordinates by tracking MBS temperature and POA irradiance. In The suggested mathematical expressions to describe physical para-
this way, Celik et al. used single-diode model with four or five model- meters are not all dependent on both temperature and irradiance, and
parameters and proposed analytical equations to depict variation of their dependencies on T or on S or on both, if they exist are purely
model-parameters under real outdoor conditions to predict real-time empirical, they are not based on asymptotic behaviors, and do not
values of maximum power coordinates during one day [15]. Similarly, faithfully reproduce real-time values of physical parameters. Therefore,
2
existing approaches aiming indirect prediction of maximum power

point via mathematical expressions of physical parameters could not
predict maximum power with satisfactory precision.
In the present paper, we focus on the topic of modeling photovoltaic
modules operating outdoor in real environmental conditions. To
achieve our task, we describe a PV module by a single-diode equivalent
circuit containing five model-parameters. In the beginning, we extract
values of model-parameters of PV module operating indoor under
Standard Test Conditions (STC). We use real-time values of PV metrics
collected during one reference day to determine real-time values of
model-parameters of PV module operating outdoor under real en- Fig. 1. Single-diode equivalent circuit describing tilted, fixed and south-facing
vironmental conditions from sunup time to sundown time. We propose photovoltaic module where all model-parameters are dependent on module
new mathematical models to describe variation of key-points co- back-surface temperature and plane-of-array irradiance [30].
ordinates and model-parameters as functions of MBS temperature T and
effective irradiance S . We show that analytical formulas of maximum 2. Background equations
power coordinates determined using data collected in one site during
one reference day are shortcuts to predict with acceptable confidence 2.1. Equivalent circuit and characteristic equation
maximum power coordinates during all days of the year at any site.
However, analytical formulas of model-parameters determined using We consider a fixed tilted south-facing photovoltaic module oper-
PV metrics collected in one site during one reference day are safe ating outdoor under arbitrary meteorological conditions. Due to chan-
pathways to predict with high confidence model-parameters, to gen- ging temperature and irradiance, we describe the photovoltaic module
erate I = f (V ) characteristics and to forecast maximum power and by single-diode equivalent circuit where all model-parameters depend
conversion efficiency at any time of any day of the year for a PV module on both MBS temperature T and effective irradiance S (see Fig. 1):
located at any site. IPV (S, T ) is the photovoltaic current. (S , T ) and ISat (S , T ) are
In the present work, we focus on long-term meteorological and ideality factor and leakage current of the diode. GP (S, T ) and RS (S, T )
photovoltaic data collected by National Renewable Energy Laboratory are parallel conductance and series resistance of the PV module.
(NREL) researchers for twenty-three modules operating outdoor at three The module typical equation giving current flowing between top
sites in the USA [38,39]. We may divide our paper into four main sec- surface and back surface as a function of module output voltage writes
tions. After a wide introduction object of the current section, we present, [26,27,30,40]:
in the second section, the single-diode equivalent circuit with S and T
dependent model-parameters, the characteristic equation as well as I RS + V
I = IPV ISat exp 1 GP (I RS + V )
fundamental equations corresponding to key-points and auxiliary points. NS VTh (1)
In the third section, we focus on four PV modules (mSi460A8, xSi12922,
HIT05667 and CIGS39017) operating outdoor at a reference site (Cocoa, In Eq. (1), VTh = kB T q stands for the thermal voltage and NS is the
Florida) during one reference day (21st, June 2011). We use experi- number of PV cells connected in series to build PV module.
mental data of I-V curves key-points, I-V curves auxiliary points and
temperature coefficients recorded at STC by Sandia National Labora- 2.1.1. Photovoltaic metrics at key-points of current–voltage curve
tories (SNL) researchers. We perform numerical extraction of model- The typical points of current–voltage curve are short-circuit current
parameters values by means of Statistical Non-linear Fit method (SNF point (0, ISC ) , open-circuit voltage point (VOC , 0) and maximum power
method) [26,27,29] for the four PV modules operating indoor under STC. point (VMPP , IMPP ) . The characteristic equations at these key-points are:
We call five minutes-step experimental data gathered by NREL re-
searchers for the PV modules operating outdoor in reference site under 0 = IPV ISat exp
VOC
1 VOC GP
real environmental conditions during one reference day. We use equa- NS VTh (2)
tions at key-points of I-V curve (short-circuit point (0, ISC ) , open-circuit
point (VOC , 0) , maximum power point (VMPP , IMPP ) ), slope of power- ISC RS
voltage curve at maximum power point, and mathematical formula of ISC = IPV ISat exp 1 RS ISC GP
NS VTh (3)
photocurrent IPV to extract real-time values of four model-parameters
(series resistance RS , parallel conductance GP (or parallel resistance RSh ),
RS IMPP + VMPP
ideality factor and saturation current ISat ). We also introduce new solar IMPP = IPV ISat exp 1 GP (RS IMPP + VMPP )
NS VTh (4)
cell physics-based mathematical models describing variation against S
and T of open-circuit voltage, maximum power voltage and four model-
parameters. These mathematical models allow users to reproduce mea-
2.1.2. Slope of power-voltage curve at maximum power point
sured data or to anticipate data such as PV metrics, maximum power
At maximum power point, the slope of power-voltage curve van-
coordinates, conversion efficiency and current–voltage curves at any
ishes while the slope of current–voltage curve is equal to the opposite of
time in any day for a PV module operating outdoor and located any-
optimal conductance GMPP (GMPP = IMPP VMPP ) :
where. In the fourth section, we evaluate accuracy of numerical proce-
dures aiming to extract model-parameters values at STC. We test math- IMPP ISat IMPP V + IMPP RS IMPP
= 1 RS exp MPP GP 1 RS
ematical formulas of VOC and VMPP by comparing predicted data coming VMPP NS VTh VMPP NS VTh VMPPP
directly from these shortcut mathematical models to experimental PV (5)
metrics. We compare I = f (V ) curves generated via real-time model-
parameters to I = f (V ) curves predicted using mathematical formulas of
model-parameters and to experimental characteristics. We also compare 2.1.3. Auxiliary points of current–voltage curve
values of maximum power and conversion efficiency coming from pre- The auxiliary points of current–voltage curve defined for the first
dicted P = f (V ) characteristics generated via analytical formulas of time by Sandia national laboratory researchers [41] are (VOC 2, IX ) and
model-parameters to experimental values. Finally, we close our work ((VOC + VMPP ) 2, IXX ) . The characteristic equations at these supple-
with a general conclusion. mentary points are:
3
RS IX + VOC 2 modules are functions of S and T . To describe these photovoltaic

IX = IPV ISat exp 1 GP (RS IX + VOC 2) modules, we use an equivalent circuit with one exponential term and
NS VTh (6)
five model-parameters depending on S and T . To extract real-time va-
RS IXX + (VOC + VMPP ) 2 lues of IPV (S, T ) , ISat (S , T ) , (S , T ) , RS (S, T ) and GP (S, T ) during one
IXX = IPV ISat exp 1 GP (RS IXX + (VOC + VMPP ) 2)
NS VTh reference day, we follow the procedure described in details in our
(7) earlier work [30].
As shown in our previous paper, we begin by modelling the pho-
tocurrent IPV (S, T ) . We use the well-known analytical formula of pho-
2.2. Analytical solution of transcendental equation
tocurrent IPV (S, T ) , which is linear in effective solar irradiance S , and
affine in module temperature T [13,18,19,30,46–55]:
The analytical solution of Eq. (1) giving the current I = f (V )
flowing between emitter and base of PV module writes [42,43]: IPV = IPV , ref
S
(1 + Ki (T Tref ))
Sref (15)
NS VTh RS ISat R (I + ISat ) + V I + ISat GP V
I= W exp S PV + PV
RS NS VTh (1 + GP RS ) NS VTh (1 + GP RS ) 1 + GP RS In Eq. (15), we use effective solar irradiance S that stands for the
(8) irradiance reaching top surface of each solar cell within photovoltaic
module and transmitted inside [13]:
We may write I = f (V ) using a new formula and a new function as
in [44,45]: Sref ISC
S=
ISC, ref (1 + Ki (T Tref )) (16)
NS VTh ISat RS V
I= g (u (V )) ln
RS NS VTh (1 + GP RS ) RS (9) S is lower than solar irradiance measured by tilted pyranometers.
The solar spectrum variation between these two irradiances is due to
Where geometrical and interface reflectance losses, which are maximum at
g (x ) = ln(LambertW (e x )) (10) sunrise and sunset and minimum at midday.
To extract four remaining model-parameters ISat (S , T ) , (S , T ) ,
and RS (S, T ) and GP (S, T ) , we borrow experimental data of MBS tempera-
ISat RS R I + RS ISat + V ture, short-circuit current ISC , maximum power current IMPP , maximum
u (V ) = ln + S PV power voltage VMPP and open-circuit voltage VOC gathered by NREL
NS VTh (1 + GP RS ) Ns VTh (1 + GP RS ) (11)
researchers for photovoltaic modules operating outdoor at Cocoa
The reciprocal solution of Eq. (1) giving the voltage V = f (I ) be- (Florida) from dawning to evening under real environmental conditions
tween PV module terminals writes [42,43]: during one reference day (21st June 2011). A clear day for which values
of temperature and irradiance are as high as possible has been chosen in
ISat I + ISat I IPV + ISat (1 + GP RS ) I
V= NS VTh W exp PV + order to minimize errors and to increase precision and accuracy. We
NS VTh GP NS VTh GP GP
then use four non-linear equations corresponding to key-points of cur-
(12) rent–voltage curve Eqs. (2)–(4) and to the slope of the power-voltage
The new formula giving the voltage V = f (I ) is given as follows curve at maximum power point Eq. (5) to lay a set of three reduced
[44,45]: equations.
The starting point is the formula of saturation current deduced from
ISat Eq. (2):
V = NS VTh g (v (I )) ln RS I
NS VTh GP (13) IPV GP VOC
ISat =
Where e(VOC NS VTh) 1 (17)
ISat I + ISat I By plugging Eq. (17) into Eq. (3), we lead to an equation linking RS
v (I ) = ln + PV to and to GP :
GP NS VTh GP NS VTh (14)
RS ISC
IPV VOC GP
ISC IPV + e NS VTh 1 + RS GP ISC = 0
3. Numerical strategies e(VOC NS VTh) 1 (18)
By introducing Eq. (17) into Eq. (4), we obtain an equation joining
3.1. Model-parameters extraction method for photovoltaic modules
RS to and to GP :
operating indoor at STC
VMPP + RS IMPP
IPV GP VOC
IMPP IPV + e NS VTh 1 + (RS IMPP + VMPP )
In this subsection, we call experimental data recorded by Sandia e(VOC NS VTh) 1
laboratory researchers at key-points and auxiliary points of I = f(V)
GP = 0 (19)
curves corresponding to four different modules operating indoor under
STC (S = 1000 W m2 , T = 25 °C and AM1.5G solar spectrum). We use By replacing Eq. (17) in Eq. (5), we obtain an equation connecting
the Statistics Non-linear Fit method (SNF method) presented in our RS to and to GP :
earlier works [26,27,29] to determine reference values of model-para- VMPP + IMPP RS
meters by tuning Eq. (8) to experimental values. IMPP IPV VOC GP
1
RS IMPP
e NS VTh GP 1
RS IMPP
=0
VMPP NS VTh (e(VOC NS VTh) 1) VMPP VMPP
3.2. Extraction of real-time values of model-parameters for photovoltaic (20)

modules operating outdoor at arbitrary conditions during one reference day Eqs. (18), (19) and (20) form the system of non-linear equations that
gives in real-time instantaneous values of (S , T ) , RS (S, T ) and
For photovoltaic modules operating outdoor from dawning to eve- GP (S, T ) using real-time instantaneous values of ISC , IMPP , VMPP , VOC , T
ning under arbitrary meteorological conditions, the coordinates of key- provided by temporal monitoring of photovoltaic and meteorological
points and auxiliary points of I = f (V ) characteristics change during data and IPV (S, T ) given by Eqs. (15) and (16). The real-time value of
one day according to MBS temperature T and effective solar irradiance ISat (S , T ) is deduced from Eq. (17) according to flow chart given in
S . Thus, maximum powers, efficiencies and PV yields of photovoltaic Fig. 2.
4
3.3. New analytical formulas to mimic behaviours of cardinal points 3.4. Proposed analytical formulas to describe variations of model-
coordinates of PV module operating outdoor under arbitrary conditions parameters as functions of real outdoor conditions
Classical and new analytical formulas of open-circuit voltage are In this subsection, we propose new analytical formulas to depict
deduced from Eqs. (12) and (13) by setting I = 0 : variations of real-time values of ideality factor, series resistance and
shunt conductance of equivalent circuit modelling lumped PV module
ISat I + ISat IPV + ISat operating outdoor from dawning to evening during one day under real
VOC = NS VTh W exp PV +
NS VTh GP NS VTh GP GP (21) environmental conditions of MBS temperature and effective irradiance.
Starting from Eq. (2), the ideality factor is equal to
ISat VOC NS VTh ln((IPV + ISat Gp VOC ) ISat ) . So, the order of magnitude of is
VOC = NS VTh g (v (0)) ln
NS VTh GP (22) around VOC NS VTh ln(IPV ISat ) . To describe variations of (S , T ) , we
propose the ensuing mathematical model:
In the same way, classical and new analytical formulas of maximum
power point voltage are deduced from Eqs. (12) and (13) by setting (S, T ) = ref (1 + A1 (T Tref ))(1 + A2 ln(S ) + A3 (ln(S ))2 + A 4 (ln(S ))3 + A5 (ln(S )) 4)
I = IMPP :
(29)
ISat I + ISat IMPP IPV + ISat (1 + GP RS ) IMPP
VMPP = NS VTh W exp PV +
NS VTh GP NS VTh GP GP Starting from Eq. (3), we may write series resistance using g func-
tion as NS VTh {g (u RS ) ln(ISat (NS VTh GP ))} ISC . A careful study, where
(23)
we use real-time values of model-parameters determined for one re-
ISat ference day (see Section 3.2), shows that the term between brackets is
VMPP = NS VTh g (v (IMPP )) ln RS IMPP
NS VTh GP (24) proportional to S . Knowing that ISC is also proportional to S , we can
deduce that the behaviour of RS (S, T ) is dominated by that of (S , T ) .
In Eq. (21), the argument of Lambert W function is gigantic and its To describe variations of RS (S, T ) , we propose the subsequent mathe-
natural logarithm identified as v (0) (Eq. (14)) is proportional to matical model:
S = S Sref . In Eq. (22), the argument v (0) of g function is proportional
to S = S Sref . So, to investigate the variations of VOC and VMPP as RS (S, T ) = RS , ref (1 + B1 (T Tref ))(1 + B2 ln(S ) + B3 (ln(S ))2 + B4 (ln(S ))3 + B5 (ln(S ))4)
functions of effective irradiance intensity, we need the asymptotic be- (30)
haviors of the functions W (x ) and g (x ) as x goes to infinity:
Starting from Eq. (3), the shunt resistance is equal to
W (x ) = ln(x ) ln(ln(x )) + ln(ln(x )) ln(x ) ISC RS ( ISat exp(RS ISC (NS VTh)) + IPV + ISat ISC ) . So the order of
+ (1 2) ln(ln(x ))(ln(ln(x )) 2) ln(x )2 magnitude of RSh (S , T ) is around ISC RS (IPV ISC ) and the behaviour of
+ (1 6) ln(ln(x ))( 9 ln(ln(x )) + 6 + 2 ln(ln(x ))2) RSh (S , T ) is dominated by that of RS (S, T ) . To describe variations of
RSh (S , T ) , we propose the ensuing mathematical model:
ln(x )3 + (1 12) ln(ln(x ))(3 ln(ln(x ))3
22 ln(ln(x ))2+ 36 ln(ln(x )) 12) ln(x ) 4 + o (1 ln(x )5) (25)
Start
g (x ) = ln(x ) ln(x ) x (1 2) ln(x )(ln(x ) 2) x 2
(1 6) ln(x )( 9 ln(x ) + 6 + 2 ln(x )2) x 3 • Input real time measured values of cardinal points
(1 12) ln(x )(3 ln(x )3 22 ln(x )2 + 36 ln(x ) 12) x 4 + o (1 x 5) coordinates (VOC ,i , I SC ,i , I MPP ,i , and VMPP ,i ),
(26) • Input module back-surface temperature (Ti ),
The asymptotic behaviours to the fifth order given in Eqs. (25) and • Input set of N i points corresponding to I i f (Vi ) curve.
(26) bring the proof of validity of expressions proposed by different
researchers to model open-circuit voltage and maximum power point
• Calculate values of effective irradiance Si using Eq. (16),
voltage with one logarithmic term [15,16,19,41,48,56–61], two loga-
• Calculate values of I PV ( Si , Ti ) using Eq. (15).
rithmic terms polynomials [41,58] and three logarithmic terms poly-
nomials [60,62].
In this work, we propose new analytical formulas based on four • Solve the system of three nonlinear equations
logarithmic terms polynomials to describe variations of open-circuit
(18), (19), (20) using fsolve command in Maple,
voltage VOC (S , T ) and maximum power point voltage VMPP (S, T ) of
lumped PV module operating under arbitrary conditions: • Get values of RS ( Si , Ti ), ( Si , Ti ) and GP ( Si , Ti ).
VOC (S, T )
• Deduce ISat (Si , Ti ) using Eq. (17),
= VOC, ref + KV , OC (T Tref ) + NS VTh (T )( V , OC ln(S )+ V , OC (ln(S )) 2
• Generate Ii f (Vi ) and Pi f (Vi ) curves,
+ V , OC (ln(S ))3 + V , OC (ln(S )) 4) (27) • Maximize Pi (Vi ) and determine VMPP,i (Si ,Ti ),
VMPP (S, T ) = VMPP, ref + KV , MPP (T Tref ) IMPP,i (Si , Ti ), PMPP (Si , Ti ) and Eff (Si , Ti ).
+ NS VTh (T )( V , MPP ln(S )+ V , MPP (ln(S ))2

+ V , MPP (ln(S ))3 + V , MPP (ln(S )) 4) (28) Yes
i M
To find the values of temperature coefficients and irradiance coeffi-
cients in Eqs (27) and (28), we achieve two-dimensional tuning of these No
equations to experimental values of open-circuit voltage and maximum End
power point voltage, collected from sunrise to sundown during June 21st
2011 at the terminals of four lumped PV modules operating outdoor at Fig. 2. Flow chart to determine real-time values of model-parameters of PV
Cocoa (Florida) under real environmental conditions. module operating outdoor under arbitrary conditions.
5
RSh (S , T ) Table 2
Specific parameters of four different types of PV modules coming from different
= RSh, ref (1 + C1 (T Tref ))(1 + C2 ln(S ) + C3 (ln(S ))2 + C4 (ln(S ))3
technologies.
+ C5 (ln(S )) 4) (31) Specific parameters of PV PV module identifier
The MBS temperature and effective irradiance dependent expression modules
xSi12922 mSi460A8 HIT05667 CIGS39017
giving predicted value of saturation current is obtained by introducing
in Eq. (17) S and T dependent expressions of ideality factor, series and NS 36 36 72 72
parallel resistances given respectively by Eqs. (29), (30) and (31): Smodule (m2) 0.647 0.647 1.26 1.75
VOC, ref (V) 21.9461 21.3579 50.7105 41.6701
IPV (S , T ) VOC (S, T ) RSh (S, T ) ISC,ref (A) 4.98327 4.93793 5.3747 6.06558
ISat (S , T ) =
e (VOC (S, T ) (S, T ) NS VTh (T )) 1 (32) VMPP, ref (V) 17.39 17.0724 41.8914 29.3889
IMPP ,ref (A) 4.48661 4.53381 5.04798 4.74149
K i (C−1) 0.000601 0.000538 0.000437 −0.000251
3.5. Analytical formulas borrowed from the literature and previously used Kv (V.C−1) −0.070524 −0.072612 −0.12693 −0.10540
in depicting variations of model-parameters versus environmental conditions
In order to assess precision and accuracy of the analytical formulas

presented in Section 3.4 to depict the variations of ideality factor (Eq. (29)),
series resistance (Eq. (30)) and parallel resistance (Eq. (31)), as functions of
MBS temperature and effective irradiance throughout one reference day,
we make a comparison with some previously used mathematical models. In
table 1, we gather most used models of model-parameters.
3.6. Assessment of numerical extraction method and analytical formulas

describing variations of model-parameters
In this paragraph, we define Normalized Root Mean Square Error

(NRMSE) as [65]:
Ni
1 j j
Ni
(IMeasured ICalculated )2
j =1
NRMSE|i = N Fig. 3. Temporal variation of plane-of-array irradiance, ambient temperature
1 j
Ni
IMeasured and module back-surface temperature for the PV modules mSi460A8, xSi12922,
j =1 (33) HIT05667 and CIGS39017 operating outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) on June 21st
i is the subscript corresponding to the time t flowing from dawning 2011.
to evening. j is the current–voltage characteristics (I j , Vj ) subscript. Ni is
the number of (I j , Vj ) points measured at the time ti . We also define Table 3
Normalized Error as [66]: Model-parameters of the four PV modules mSi460A8, xSi12922, HIT05667 and
CIGS39017 at reference conditions.
|I jMeasured (Vj ) I Calculated
j (Vj )|
NE (Vj ) = Model-parameters Optimized values of PV modules
Max1Ni Measured
(I j (Vj )) (34)
mSi460A8 xSi12922 HIT05667 CIGS39017
|XiMeasured (ti ) XiCalculated (ti)|
NE (ti ) =
Max1M (XiMeasured (ti )) (35) IPV , ref (A) 4.9412 4.9905 5.3804 6.2472
ISat, ref (A) 9.0343 10−8 3.6320 10−7 1.1616 10−8 1.0723 10−5
where X stands for voltage V , power P or conversion efficiency Eff . ref 1.2965 1.4457 1.3742 1.7220
RS, ref (Ω) 0.2641 0.2709 0.3511 1.1298
4. Results and discussion GP ,ref (Ω−1) 0.00166 0.005307 0.00076 0.0264
4.1. Presentation of meteorological data and photovoltaic measurements

used in this work performed by SNL researchers on mSi460A8, xSi12922, HIT05667 and
CIGS39017 PV modules operating indoor under STC.
To check pertinence of numerical method presented in Section 3.1 To evaluate numerical approach presented in Section 3.2 to de-
to extract model-parameters, we use experimental measurements termine real-time values of model-parameters, and mathematical
Table 1
Some analytical models of model-parameters in the literature.
Ideality factor (S, T ) Series resistance RS (S, T ) Shunt resistance RSh (S, T )
Model 1 [26] Model 1 [18] Model 1 [58]

( VOC (S , T ) + NS Eg (T )) Sref
T S RSh,ref
DT3
RS, ref 1 + B ln S
Tref Sref
NS VTh (T ) ln
IPV (S, T ) GP ,ref VOC (S , T )
Model 2 [52] Model 2 [61] Model 2 [63]

n m Sref RSh
T S RS, ref S
ref S RSh,ref (1 + k RSh (T Tref ))
Tref Sref Sref
VOC (S, T ) ISC , ref VOC (S , T ) ISC , ref VOC (S, T )

Model 3 [64] ref V Model 3 [64]RS, ref Model 3 [64]RSh,ref
OC , ref VOC , ref ISC (S, T ) VOC , ref ISC (S, T )
6
0,20 0,020
5,0 mSi460A8 5,0 xSi12922
4,5 Measured values 4,5 Measured values 0,015
0,15
4,0 4,0
Normalized Errors (%)

SNF method SNF method

Normalized Errors Normalized Errors 0,010
3,5 0,10 3,5
Current (A)
Current (A)
3,0 3,0 0,005
2,5 0,05 2,5
0,000
2,0 2,0
1,5 0,00 1,5 -0,005
1,0 1,0
-0,05 -0,010
0,5 0,5
0,0 -0,10 0,0 -0,015
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Voltage (V) Voltage (V)
0,9 6,0
5,5 HIT05667 CIGS39017
5,0 0,8 5,5 0,02
Measured values
4,5 0,7 5,0 Measured values

SNF method

4,0 Normalized Errors 4,5 SNF method
0,6
4,0 Normalized Errors 0,01
Current (A)
Current (A)
3,5 0,5 3,5
3,0
0,4 3,0
2,5 2,5 0,00
0,3
2,0 2,0
1,5 0,2
1,5
0,1 -0,01
1,0 1,0
0,5 0,0 0,5
0,0 -0,1 0,0 -0,02
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Fig. 4. Current-voltage characteristics measured at key and auxiliary points (red points) and generated via optimized values of model parameters (blue lines) as well
as normalized error (green squares) at key and auxiliary points for the four PV modules operating indoor under STC.
Table 4 south and tilted with an angle equal to 28.5° [38,39]. They were later set
Temperature and irradiance coefficients of new analytical formula (Eq. (27)) at Eugene (Oregon) during one year where they were facing the south
proposed to predict values of open-circuit voltage. and tilted with an angle equal to 44.0° [38,39]. The experiments were
Optimized coefficients Photovoltaic modules technologies lead from January 2011 to January 2014 [38,39]. The meteorological
data contain ambient temperature TAmb , relative humidity, precipitation,
mSi460A8 xSi12922 HIT05667 CIGS39017 atmospheric pressure, direct solar irradiance, global and diffuse hor-
izontal irradiances. The photovoltaic data contain PV module identifier,
KV , OC (V/C°) −0.063052 −0.074201 −0.123757 −0.098824
0.828992 0.8571907 0.855841 1.531706
MBS temperature T , POA irradiance, cardinal points coordinates (ISC ,
V , OC
−0.1892412 −0.141023 −0.085533 0.657090 VOC , VMPP , IMPP ), maximum power PMPP , fill factor and I-V curves. All
V , OC
V , OC −0.0327384 −0.035085 −0.0007857 0.669281 quantities were measured during all days with a fixed time step equal to
V , OC −0.0049322 −0.004774 0.0007480 0.083694 five minutes [38,39]. In table 2, we present specific parameters at re-
ference conditions of four PV modules as reported by SNL researchers.
In Fig. 3, we present temporal values of plane-of-array irradiance,
Table 5 ambient temperature TAmb and module back surface temperature T of four
Temperature and irradiance coefficients of new analytical formula (Eq. (28)) PV modules set at Cocoa (Florida) during one reference day: June 21st
proposed to predict maximum power voltage. 2011. We observe that POA irradiance is maximal at solar midday,
Optimized coefficients Photovoltaic modules technologies minimal at sunrise and sunset. We also observe that MBS temperatures are
higher in the second half of the day in comparison to the first half of the
mSi460A8 xSi12922 HIT05667 CIGS39017 day for all PV modules (mSi460A8, xSi12922, HIT05667 and CIGS39017).
KV , MPP (V/C°) −0.066580 −0.071459 −0.127901 −0.098807
V , MPP −0.170279 −0.495276 −0.118078 −0.839317 4.2. Model-parameters values of PV modules operating indoor under STC
V , MPP −0.617785 −0.608870 −0.496264 −1.049645
V , MPP −0.103753 −0.106763 −0.093948 −0.312532 In Section 3.2, we needed STC value of photocurrent to model the
V , MPP −0.0098899 −0.010456 −0.0084217 0.082990 dependence of IPV (S, T ) on MBS temperature and effective irradiance.
In Section 3.4, we used as reference values in mathematical expressions
proposed to mimic variation of (S , T ) , RS (S, T ) and RSh (S , T ) , STC
formulas presented in Sections 3.3 and 3.4 portraying the dependence on
values of model-parameters. In table 3, we present STC values of PV
S and T of model-parameters, we use meteorological and photovoltaic
modules model-parameters determined via Statistics Non-linear Fit
measurements achieved by NREL researchers on mSi460A8, xSi12922,
(SNF) method [26,27,29].
HIT05667 and CIGS39017 PV modules [38,39]. The modules was first
In Fig. 4, we present current–voltage characteristics measured at
set at Cocoa (Florida) during thirteen months where they were facing the
key-points and auxiliary points as well as current–voltage curve
7
20,5 0,5 0,5

Measured values mSi460A8 20,5 Measured values xSi12922
20,0 Optimized values Optimized values
0,4 0,4
Open-circuit voltage (V)

19,5 20,0

19,0 0,3 0,3
19,5
18,5 0,2
0,2 19,0
18,0
18,5 0,1
17,5 0,1
17,0 18,0 0,0
0,0 Normalized Errors
16,5 Normalized Errors 17,5 -0,1
16,0 -0,1
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Real-time (H) Real-time (H)
0,4 1,8
Measured values HIT05667 42 Measured values CIGS39017
48 Optimized values 40 Optimized values 1,6
38

0,3 1,4

47 36

1,2
46 34
0,2 32 1,0
45 30 0,8
Normalized Errors
28
0,6
44 0,1 26
24 0,4
43 22 0,2
0,0 20
42 Normalized Errors 0,0
18
16 -0,2
41 -0,1
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Fig. 5. Open-circuit voltage values measured by NREL (red points) and optimized by Eq.(27) (blue line) as well as normalized error (green line) for PV modules
operating outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) during June 21st 2011 from dawning to evening.
generated using model-parameters values extracted via SNF Method for (Eqs. (29) to (31)), we achieve two-dimension tuning of real-time va-
the four PV modules mSi460A8, xSi12922, HIT05667 and CIGS39017 lues of (S , T ) , RS (S, T ) and RSh (S , T ) determined numerically using
operating indoor at STC. We also present Normalized errors at key- the algorithm given in Fig. 2 to Eqs. (29)–(31). In Tables 6 and 7, we
points and auxiliary points. We remark that measured and generated gather all values of coefficients Al (l = 1 to 5), Bl (l = 1 to 5) and
(V, I) characteristics are in good agreement for all PV modules. Cl (l = 1 to 5) coming from numerical fit in cases of all PV modules
presented in Section 4.1.
4.3. Experimental and optimized values of cardinal points coordinates of PV In Figs. 7–10, we present analytical and real-time values of (S , T ) ,
modules operating outdoor under arbitrary conditions during one reference RS (S, T ) , RSh (S , T ) and ISat (S , T ) for mSi460A8, xSi12922, HIT05667
day and CIGS39017 PV modules operating outdoor at Cocoa (Florida)
during June 21st from dawning to evening. The real-time values of
To describe the variations of VOC (S , T ) and VMPP (S, T ) of PV module model-parameters are determined numerically according the flowchart
operating outdoor under arbitrary conditions of S and T , we use ana- given in Fig. 2. The analytical values of model-parameters are coming
lytical formulas given by Eqs. (27) and (28). In Tables 4 and 5, we give from models we proposed in Section 3. 4 (Eqs. (29)–(31)), and from
irradiance and temperature coefficients for open-circuit voltage and most used models in the literature that we grouped in Table 1.
maximum power voltage models proposed in Section 3.3 to predict PV
metrics of PV modules versus MBS temperature and effective irra- 4.5. Experimental, generated and forecasted current voltage characteristics
diance. These coefficients are determined by performing two-dimension of PV modules operating outdoor from dawning to evening
tuning to experimental values of VOC (S , T ) and VMPP (S, T ) , collected
from sunrise to sundown on June 21st, 2011 at the terminals of PV In this sub section, we confirm the relevance of numerical approach
modules operating in full air at Cocoa (Florida), of Eqs. (27) and (28). presented in Section 3.2 to determine real-time values of model-para-
In Fig. 5 (Fig. 6), we present the values of open-circuit voltage meters, and we test the effectiveness of mathematical models presented
(maximum power voltage) measured by NREL (red points) and opti- in Section 3.4 to predict values of (S , T ) , RS (S, T ) , RSh (S , T ) and
mized using analytical formula of Eq. (27) (Eq. (28)) (blue line) as well ISat (S , T ) in cases of mSi460A8, xSi12922, HIT05667 and CIGS39017
as normalized error NE (green line) for four PV modules operating PV modules operating outdoor under real environmental conditions at
outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) during June 21st from dawning to evening. Cocoa (Florida). We compare experimental characteristics measured by
NREL researchers to generated characteristics using values of model-
4.4. Real-time and optimized values of model-parameters of PV modules parameters determined according the flowchart of Fig. 2 and to pre-
operating outdoor under real environmental conditions dicted characteristics obtained via parameters values coming from Eq.
(15) and Eqs. (29)–(32).
To determine optimization coefficients Al (l = 1 to 5), Bl (l = 1 to 5) In Figs. 11–14, we plot experimental characteristics (red circles)
and Cl (l = 1 to 5) of the analytical formulas proposed in Section 3.4 coming from NREL data measured at given times on June 21st 2011
8
16,5 Measured values mSi460A8 0,7 Measured values xSi12922 0,7

17,0
Maximum power voltage (V)

Optimized values Optimized values
16,0 0,6 0,6
16,5

15,5 0,5 0,5
15,0 0,4 16,0 0,4
14,5 0,3 15,5 0,3
14,0 0,2 0,2
15,0
13,5 0,1 0,1
13,0 0,0 14,5 0,0
Normalized Errors Normalized Errors
12,5 -0,1 14,0 -0,1
12,0 -0,2 -0,2
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
41 0,5 3,0

Optimized values Optimized values
40 0,4 28 2,5
26

39 0,3 24 2,0
22
0,2 1,5
38 20
Normalized Errors
0,1 18 1,0
37 16
0,0 14 0,5
36 Normalized Errors 12
-0,1 0,0
35 10
-0,2 8 -0,5
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Fig. 6. Maximum power voltage values measured by NREL (red points) and optimized by Eq.(28) (blue line) as well as normalized error (green line) for PV modules
operating outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) during June 21st 2011 from sunrise to sundown.
Table 6
Optimized coefficients of new analytical formulas introduced to mimic variations of model-parameters versus S and T in cases of mSi460A8 and xSi12922 PV
modules.
Rank (l) Optimized coefficients
Al Bl Cl
mSi460A8 xSi12922 mSi460A8 xSi12922 mSi460A8 xSi12922
−4 −1 −3 −1 −3 −1 −3 −1 −4 −1
1 −9.1988 10 [°C ] −6.3468 10 [°C ] 1.1873 10 [°C ] 2.1671 10 [°C ] 4.711 10 [°C ] −2.6786 10−3 [°C−1]
2 0.031535 0.488183 0.07750 −1.014885 −0.076371 −1.723051
3 0.025702 0.295242 0.160598 −0.483930 −0.026832 −1.306458
4 −0.004311 0.076049 0.014581 −0.328633 −0.058945 −0.648734
5 −0.000255 0.008360 0.008125 −0.037759 −0.0010211 −0.078073
Table 7
Optimized coefficients of new analytical formulas introduced to mimic variations of model-parameters versus S and T in cases of HIT05667 and CIGS39017 PV
modules.
Rank (l) Optimized coefficients
Al Bl Cl
HIT05667 CIGS39017 HIT05667 CIGS39017 HIT05667 CIGS39017
−1 −1 −1 −1 −1
1 −0.006025 [°C ] −0.0006582 [°C ] 0.0057397 [°C ] −0.001964 [°C ] 0.0024772 [°C ] −0.002368 [°C−1]
2 0.411025 0.333799 −1.694989 −0.384464 −2.176139 −0.546248
3 0.202905 0.147238 −0.516179 0.375881 −1.013409 0.056463
4 0.047064 −0.151163 −0.787837 0.108684 −0.979023 −0.069333
5 0.005213 −0.036174 −0.106174 0.004481 −0.130253 −0.020594
from sunup to midday (Figs (11a) to (14a)) and from midday to sun- dependent on intensity of effective irradiance falling on PV modules in
down (Figs (11b) to (14b)) as well as corresponding generated (blue short-circuit current regions despite variation of temperature for all PV
lines) and predicted (green lines) characteristics of the four PV mod- modules (mSi460A8, xSi12922, HIT05667 and CIGS39017). Indeed, in
ules. We notice that output currents of all PV modules are strongly this region short-circuit current is a bilinear function of effective
9
Fig. 7. Analytical and real-time values of four model-parameters ( , RS , RSh and ISat ) versus time t for multi-crystalline silicon mSi460A8 PV module operating
outdoor under real environmental conditions at Cocoa (Florida) during June 21st 2011 from sunrise to sundown.
Fig. 8. Analytical and real-time values of four model-parameters ( , RS , RSh and ISat ) versus time t for single-crystalline silicon xSi12922 PV module operating outdoor
under real environmental conditions at Cocoa (Florida) during June 21st 2011 from dawning to evening.
10
Fig. 9. Analytical and real-time values of four model-parameters ( , RS , RSh and ISat ) versus time t for Amorphous silicon/crystalline silicon HIT05667 PV module
operating outdoor under real environmental conditions at Cocoa (Florida) during June 21st 2011 from dawning to evening.
35 12
30 Numerical Values
Numerical Values 10 Proposed model
25
)
Proposed Model 8 Model 1

Series resistance ( )
20
2
Model 1
Shunt resistance (10
6 Model 2
15 Model 2 Model 3
10 Model 3 4
3,5 1,50
3,0 1,25
2,5 1,00
2,0 0,75
1,5 0,50
1,0
0,25
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
5,5 13
5,0 Numerical Valeus 12
11
)
Proposed Model
4,5 10 Numerical values
-3
Model 2
9
Saturation current (10
4,0 Model 3 Analytical values

8
Ideality factor
3,5
7
3,0 6
2,5 5
4
2,0
3
1,5 2
1,0 1
0
0,5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Fig. 10. Analytical and real-time values of four model-parameters ( , RS , RSh and ISat ) versus time t for Copper indium gallium selenide CIGS39017 PV module
operating outdoor under real environmental conditions at Cocoa (Florida) during June 21st 2011 from sunrise to sundown.
11
Measured Generated Predicted Measured Generated Predicted

4,5
4,5 t=12:35 , S=897.7W/m²,T=50.9°C mSi460A8 mSi460A8
t=13:25 , S=869.6W/m²,T=51.7°C
t=10:55 , S=827.7W/m²,T=51.7°C (a) 4,0 (b)
4,0 t=14:15 , S=785.4W/m²,T=49.9°C
t=10:05 , S=721.3W/m²,T=52.0°C 3,5
3,5
3,0 t=15:05 , S=666.2W/m²,T=45.8°C
3,0 t=09:15 , S=578.7W/m²,T=44.4°C
Current (A)
Current (A)
2,5 t=15:55 , S=489.9W/m²,T=43.9°C
2,5
2,0
t=08:25 , S=406.2 W/m²,T=41.4°C 2,0
t=16:45 , S=338.8W/m²,T=39.3°C
1,5 1,5
t=07:35 , S=238.8 W/m²,T=31.8°C
1,0 1,0 t=17:35 , S=188.1W/m²,T=34.7°C
0,5 t=06:40 , S=85.6W/m²,T=24.7°C 0,5

t=05:55 , S=24.4W/m²,T=22.8°C t=19:05 , S=22.1W/m²,T=29.4°C
0,0 0,0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Fig. 11. Measured (red circles), generated (blue lines) and predicted (green lines) I-V curves at different moments in the morning (a) and in the afternoon (b) for
mSi460A8 PV module operating outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) during June 21st 2011 from sunrise to sundown.

t=12:35 , S=897.7W/m²,T=50.9°C xSi12922 4,5 xSi12922
4,5 t=13:25 , S=869.6W/m²,T=51.6°C
t=10:55 , S=827.7W/m²,T=52.7°C (b)
(a) 4,0
4,0 t=14:15 , S=785.4W/m²,T=49.3°C
t=10:05 , S=721.3W/m²,T=51.0°C
3,5
3,5
t=15:05 , S=666.2W/m²,T=46.2°C
3,0 t=09:15 , S=578.7W/m²,T=44.7°C
3,0
Current (A)
Current (A)
2,5 2,5 t=15:55 , S=489.9W/m²,T=43.5°C
t=08:25 , S=406.2 W/m²,T=40.1°C 2,0

2,0
t=16:45 , S=338.8W/m²,T=38.8°C
1,5 1,5
t=07:35 , S=238.8 W/m²,T=31.4°C
1,0 1,0 t=17:35 , S=188.1W/m²,T=34.5°C
0,5 t=06:40, S=85.6W/m²,T=24.6°C 0,5

t=05:55 , S=24.4W/m²,T=22.9°C t=19:05 , S=22.1W/m²,T=29.5°C
0,0 0,0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
xSi12922 PV module operating outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) during June 21st 2011 from dawning to evening.

5,0
5,0 t=12:35 , S=897.7W/m²,T=52.6°C HIT05667 t=13:25 , S=869.6W/m²,T=52.0°C HIT05667
t=10:55 , S=827.7W/m²,T=53.3°C (a) 4,5 (b)
4,5 t=14:15 , S=785.4W/m²,T=51.4°C
4,0
4,0 t=10:05 , S=721.3W/m²,T=51.1°C
t=15:05 , S=666.2W/m²,T=47.1°C
3,5 3,5
Current (A)
t=09:15 , S=578.7W/m²,T=44.5°C
Current (A)
3,0 3,0
t=15:55 , S=489.9W/m²,T=44.6°C
2,5 2,5
t=08:25 , S=406.2 W/m²,T=49.8°C
2,0 2,0 t=16:45 , S=338.8W/m²,T=39.6°C
1,5 1,5
t=07:35 , S=238.8 W/m²,T=31.5°C
1,0 1,0 t=17:35 , S=188.1W/m²,T=35.4°C
0,5 t=06:40, S=85.6W/m²,T=25.2°C 0,5

t=05:55 , S=24.4W/m²,T=23.6°C t=19:05 , S=22.1W/m²,T=20.1°C
0,0 0,0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
HIT05667 PV module operating outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) during June 21st 2011 from sunrise to sundown.
irradiance and MBS temperature and the coefficient of irradiance is Otherwise, output voltage becomes strongly dependent on temperature
higher than that of temperature. Near open-circuit voltage, we notice for all modules because in this region open-circuit voltage is a non-
that output voltages of all PV modules are strongly dependent on ef- linear saturating function of effective irradiance and a linear function of
fective irradiance as long as its intensity is lower than 200 Wm−2. temperature with a negative coefficient.
12

6,0 t=12:35 , S=897.7W/m²,T=51.8°C CIGS39017 5,5 t=13:25 , S=869.6W/m²,T=52.8°C
CIGS39017
5,5 t=10:55 , S=827.7W/m²,T=53.6°C (a) 5,0 t=14:15 , S=785.4W/m²,T=50.3°C (b)
5,0
4,5 t=10:05 , S=721.3W/m²,T=53.1°C 4,5
t=15:05 , S=666.2W/m²,T=47.7°C
4,0 4,0
t=09:15 , S=578.7W/m²,T=46.2°C
3,5
Current (A)
3,5
Current (A)
3,0 t=15:55 , S=489.9W/m²,T=44.4°C

3,0
t=08:25 , S=406.2 W/m²,T=42.6°C
2,5 2,5
2,0 2,0 t=16:45 , S=338.8W/m²,T=39.4°C
1,5 t=07:35 , S=238.8 W/m²,T=32.7°C
1,5
1,0 t=7:35 , S=188.1W/m²,T=34.9°C
t=06:40, S=85.6W/m²,T=24.5°C 1,0
0,5
0,0 0,5 t=19:00 , S=22.1W/m²,T=29.4°C
t=06:00 , S=29.4W/m²,T=22.8°C
-0,5 0,0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36
CIGS39017 PV module operating outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) during June 21st 2011 from dawning to evening.
Fig. 15. NRMSE of current for all generated and predicted I-V curves corresponding to PV modules (mSi460A8, xSi12922, HIT05667 and CIGS39017) operating
outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) on June 21st 2011 from sunrise to sundown.
In Fig. 15, we present NRMSE as defined in Section 3.6, for curren- effective irradiance on PV modules equivalent electronic circuit. The
t–voltage characteristics generated using model-parameters values nu- values of model-parameters forecasted using mathematical models
merically determined via flowchart in Fig. 2, and predicted current–vol- predicting effects of effective irradiance S and MBS temperature T make
tage characteristics obtained via mathematical models proposed in it possible to estimate, with high confidence, the temporal evolution of
Section 3.4, in comparison to current–voltage characteristics measured by maximum power and conversion efficiency of a PV module during one
NREL researchers on June 21st 2011 from dawning to evening. We notice day as we show in Figs. 16 and 17.
that NRMSE does not exceed 1.2%, 1.8%, 2.3% and 2.75% respectively
for mSi460A8, xSi12922, HIT05667 and CIGS39017 PV modules, which
4.6. Real-time and predicted values of maximum power and conversion
confirm relevance of numerical approach presented in Section 3.2 and
efficiency corresponding to PV modules operating outdoor from dawning to
effectiveness of analytical approach presented in Section 3.4.
evening
As a result, real-time values of model-parameters determined nu-
merically give good description of effects of MBS temperature and
In Fig. 16, we present predicted (blue lines), experimental values
13
75 1,0 75 1,0
70 Measured values mSi460A8 Measured values xSi12922
Predicted values
0,9 70 Predicted values
0,9
65 65
0,8 0,8
60 60

Nominal power (W)
Nominal power (W)

55 0,7 0,7
55
50 0,6 50 0,6
45 0,5 45 0,5
40 40
0,4 0,4
35 35
30 0,3 30 0,3
25 0,2 25 0,2
20 0,1 20 0,1
15 15
0,0 0,0
10 10 Normalized Errors
5 Normalized Errors -0,1 -0,1
5
0 -0,2 0 -0,2
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1,0
200 Measured values HIT05667 Measured values CIGS39017
0,9 135 1,50
Predicted values Predicted values
180 0,8 120

1,25
Nominal power (W)
Nominal power (W)

160

0,7 105
140 0,6 1,00
90
120 0,5
75 0,75
100 0,4
0,3 60 0,50
80
0,2 45
60 0,25
0,1
40 30
0,0 0,00
20 Normalized Errors -0,1 15 Normalized Errors
0 -0,25
0 -0,2
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Fig. 16. Predicted and measured values of maximum power as well as normalised error versus real-time t for all four kinds of PV modules operating outdoor at Cocoa
(Florida) on June 21st 2011 from dawning to evening under real environmental conditions.
12,0 1,1
Measured values mSi460A8
1,0 12,5 Measured values xSi12922 1,4
11,5 Predicted values Predicted values
0,9 12,0 1,2
Conversion efficiency(%)
11,0 0,8

11,5 1,0
10,5 0,7
0,6 0,8
11,0
10,0 0,5 0,6
9,5 0,4 10,5
0,4
0,3 10,0
9,0 0,2 0,2
8,5 0,1 9,5 0,0
0,0 Normalized Errors
8,0 Normalized Errors 9,0 -0,2
-0,1
7,5 -0,2 8,5 -0,4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1,6 9 1,8
16,5 Measured values HIT05667 Measured values CIGS39017
1,4 1,6
Predicted values 8 Predicted values
16,0 1,2 1,4

7 1,2
1,0
15,5
0,8 6 1,0
15,0 0,6 0,8
5
0,6
14,5 0,4
4 0,4
0,2
14,0 3 0,2
0,0
0,0
13,5 Normalized Errors -0,2 2 Normalized Errors -0,2
13,0 -0,4 1 -0,4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Fig. 17. Predicted and measured values of conversion efficiency as well as normalised error versus real-time t for four PV modules operating outdoor at Cocoa
(Florida) on June 21st 2011 under arbitrary conditions.
14
Measured Predicted Measured Predicted

6,0 6,0
t=12:35 , S=1121.6W/m²,T=54.6°C mSi460A8 mSi460A8
5,5 5,5 t=13:35 , S=1076.8W/m²,T=41.5°C
(a) (b)
5,0 t=10:20 , S=933.0W/m²,T=42.1°C 5,0
4,5 4,5 t=14:45 , S=835.3W/m²,T=41.7°C
4,0 4,0
Current (A)
Current (A)
3,5 t=09:25 , S=642.2W/m²,T=38.5°C 3,5 t=15:35 , S=630.2W/m²,T=36.6°C
3,0 3,0
2,5 t=08:30 , S=432.9 W/m²,T=28.4°C 2,5
t=16:30 , S=393.1 W/m²,T=31.9°C
2,0 2,0
1,5 t=07:35 , S=210.9 W/m²,T=18.2°C
1,5
t=17:20 , S=191.2 W/m²,T=27.0°C
1,0 1,0
0,5 t=06:40 , S=31.8W/m²,T=11.8°C 0,5 t=18:15 , S=26.3W/m²,T=22.7°C
0,0 0,0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Fig. 18. Measured (red circles) and predicted (green lines) I-V curves at different moments in the morning (a) and in the afternoon (b) for mSi460A8 PV module
operating outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) during March 16th 2011 from dawning to evening.

6,5 6,0
t=12:35 , S=1121.6W/m²,T=56.9°C xSi12922 t=13:35 , S=1076.8W/m²,T=41.3°C xSi12922
6,0 5,5
(a) (b)
5,5 5,0
5,0 4,5 t=14:45 , S=835.3W/m²,T=43.7°C
t=10:20 , S=933.0W/m²,T=38.9°C
4,5 4,0
4,0
Current (A)
Current (A)
t=09:25 , S=642.2W/m²,T=38.5°C
3,5 t=15:35 , S=630.2W/m²,T=39.2°C
3,5
3,0
3,0
2,5
2,5 t=08:30 , S=432.9 W/m²,T=30.3°C t=16:30 , S=393.1 W/m²,T=32.2°C
2,0 2,0
1,5 1,5
t=07:35 , S=210.9 W/m²,T=19.4°C t=17:20 , S=191.2 W/m²,T=28.0°C
1,0 1,0
0,5 t=06:50 , S=31.8W/m²,T=12.0°C 0,5 t=18:15 , S=26.3W/m²,T=22.2°C
0,0 0,0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Fig. 19. Measured (red circles) and predicted (green lines) I-V curves at different moments in the morning (a) and in the afternoon (b) for xSi12922 PV module
operating outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) during March 16th 2011 from sunrise to sundown.

6,5 t=12:35 , S=1121.6W/m²,T=52.4°C HIT05667 6,0 t=13:35 , S=1076.8W/m²,T=42.1°C HIT05667
6,0
(a) 5,5 (b)
5,5
5,0 t=10:20 , S=933.0W/m²,T=38.2°C 5,0 t=14:45 , S=835.3W/m²,T=42.3°C
4,5 4,5
4,0 4,0
Current (A)
Current (A)
t=15:35 , S=630.2W/m²,T=37.7°C
t=09:25 , S=642.2W/m²,T=37.6°C 3,5
3,5
3,0 3,0
2,5 t=08:30 , S=432.9 W/m²,T=28.3°C 2,5 t=16:30 , S=393.1 W/m²,T=32.7°C
2,0 2,0
1,5 t=07:35 , S=210.9 W/m²,T=18.4°C
1,5
t=17:20 , S=191.2 W/m²,T=27.7°C
1,0 1,0
0,5 t=06:50 , S=31.8W/m²,T=12.6°C
0,5 t=18:15 , S=26.3W/m²,T=23.0°C
0,0 0,0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fig. 20. Measured (red circles) and predicted (green lines) I-V curves at different moments in the morning (a) and in the afternoon (b) for HIT05667 PV module
operating outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) during March 16th 2011 from dawning to evening.
(red points) as well as normalized error NE (green lines) of maximum maximization to determine maximum power point coordinates (VMPP ,
power PMPP as functions of real-time t for four PV modules operating IMPP ) and to deduce maximum power value PMPP . We notice that for all
outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) during June 21st 2011 from sunrise to four PV modules mSi460A8, xSi12922, HIT05667 and CIGS39017,
sundown. To determine predicted values of maximum power, we use predicted and measured values of maximum power are very close to
analytical values of five model-parameters given by Eq. (15) and Eqs. each other throughout the reference day.
(29)–(32) to generate P = f (V ) curves, then we use numerical In Fig. 17, we plot predicted and measured values of conversion
15

7,5
7,0
t=12:35 , S=1121.6W/m²,T=52.6°C CIGS39017 7,5 t=13:35 , S=1076.8W/m²,T=54.8°C CIGS39017
(a) 7,0 (b)
6,5
6,5
6,0 t=10:20 , S=933.0W/m²,T=42.4°C 6,0
5,5 5,5
t=14:45 , S=835.3W/m²,T=46.33°C
5,0 5,0
Current (A)
Current (A)
4,5 t=09:25 , S=642.2W/m²,T=43.3°C t=15:35 , S=630.2W/m²,T=40.5°C
4,5
4,0 4,0
3,5 3,5
3,0 t=08:30 , S=432.9 W/m²,T=32.8°C
3,0 t=16:30 , S=393.1 W/m²,T=34.6°C
2,5 2,5
2,0 2,0
1,5 t=07:35 , S=210.9 W/m²,T=20.3°C
1,5 t=17:20 , S=191.2 W/m²,T=29.0°C
1,0 1,0
0,5 t=06:50 , S=31.8W/m²,T=12.0°C 0,5 t=18:20 , S=26.3W/m²,T=22.°C
0,0 0,0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Fig. 21. Measured (red circles) and predicted (green lines) I-V curves at different moments in the morning (a) and in the afternoon (b) for CIGS39017 PV module
operating outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) during March 16th 2011 from sunrise to sundown.
2,25 2,00
mSi460A8 xSi12922
2,00
1,75
1,75
1,50 1,50
NRMSE (%)
NRMSE (%)
1,25 1,25
1,00
1,00
0,75
0,50 0,75
0,25 0,50
0,00
0,25
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
9
HIT05667 CIGS39017
2,50 8
2,25
7
2,00
NRMSE (%)
NRMSE (%)
6
1,75
5
1,50
1,25 4
1,00 3
0,75 2
0,50 1
0,25 0
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Fig. 22. NRMSE of current for all predicted I-V curves corresponding to PV modules (mSi460A8, xSi12922, HIT05667 and CIGS39017) operating outdoor at Cocoa
(Florida) on March 16th 2011 from sunrise to sundown.
efficiency versus real-time t for all four PV modules mSi460A8, 4.7. Assessement of proposed predictive approach for PV modules set at
xSi12922, HIT05667 and CIGS39017, operating outdoor at Cocoa different locations and operating on different days
(Florida) under real environmental conditions on June 21st 2011 from
sunrise to sundown. We define PV module conversion efficiency as Hereafter, we examine proposed predictive approach based on S
maximum power to incoming power ratio Eff = PMPP PIN . We define and T dependent mathematical formulas of (S , T ) , RS (S, T ) , RSh (S , T )
incoming power PIN as effective solar irradiance S value times front and ISat (S , T ) by forecasting I-V curves and maximum powers of PV
area (or top area) of PV module SModule . We remark that for all four PV modules set outdoor at Cocoa (Florida), then at Eugene (Oregon) and
modules, predicted and experimental values of PV module conversion operating at different moments in arbitrary days.
efficiency are close to each other and normalized error (NE) do not
exceed 0.8% for mSi460A8 and xSi12922 PV modules and 1.2% for 4.7.1. Prediction of I-V curves and maximum powers of March 16th 2011
HIT05667 and CIGS39017 PV modules. at Cocoa (Florida)
In Figs. 18–21, we plot experimental characteristics (red circles)
16
2,0 100 3,0

90 Measured values mSi460A8 Measured values xSi12922
Predicted values 90 Predicted values
80 2,5

1,5 80
Nominal power (W)

Nominal power (W)

70 2,0
70
60 1,0 60
1,5
50 50
40 0,5 40 1,0
30 30 0,5
20 0,0 20
0,0
10 Normalized Errors 10 Normalized Errors
0 -0,5 0 -0,5
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
2,5 180 3,5

250 Measured values HIT05667 Measured values CIGS39017
Predicted values 160 Predicted values 3,0
225 2,0

140
Nominal power (W)

Nominal power (W)
2,5

200
175 1,5 120 2,0
150 100 1,5
125 1,0
80 1,0
100
0,5 60
75 0,5
40
50 0,0 0,0
25 Normalized Errors 20
Normalized Errors -0,5
0 -0,5 0
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Fig. 23. Predicted (blue lines) and measured (red points) values of maximum power as well as normalised error versus real-time t for all four kinds of PV modules
operating outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) on March 16th 2011 from dawning to evening under real environmental conditions.

5,0
5,0 t=12:15 , S=984.6W/m²,T=49.0°C mSi460A8 t=13:05 , S=948.8W/m²,T=46.6°C mSi460A8
(a) 4,5 (b)
4,5
4,0
4,0 t=09:40 , S=764.0 W/m²,T=38.9°C t=14:45 , S=749.2 W/m²,T=44.0°C
3,5
3,5
Current (A)
Current (A)
t=08:50 , S=613.5 W/m²,T=35.9°C 3,0 t=15:35 , S=594.4 W/m²,T=40.4°C

3,0
2,5 2,5
t=08:00 , S=433.9 W/m²,T=30.0°C t=16:25 , S=416.4 W/m²,T=35.2°C
2,0 2,0
1,5 1,5
t=07:05 , S=229.0 W/m²,T=22.0°C t=17:15 , S=233.6 W/m²,T=30.2°C
1,0 1,0
0,5 0,5
t=05:30 , S=31.8W/m²,T=14.4°C t=18:55 , S=30.3W/m²,T=24.1°C
0,0 0,0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Fig. 24. Measured (red circles) and predicted (green lines) I-V curves at different moments in the morning (a) and in the afternoon (b) for mSi460A8 PV module
operating outdoor at Eugene (Oregon) during June 7th 2013 from sunrise to sundown.
coming from NREL data of PV modules set at Cocoa (Florida) and Section 3.4 in comparison to current–voltage characteristics
predicted characteristics (green lines) obtained by the approach pro- measured by NREL researchers on March 16th 2011 from
posed in sub Section 3.4. NREL data were measured at given times on dawning to evening. One can remark that NRMSE of current does
March 16th 2011 from dawning to midday (Figs (18a) to (21a)) and not exceed 2.5% for mSi460A8, xSi12922 and HIT05667 PV mod-
from midday to evening (Figs (18b) to (21b)). ules, however it increases up to 8% at sunup and sundown for
In Fig. 22, we present NRMSE of current for all current–voltage CIGS39017.
characteristics predicted using mathematical models proposed in In Fig. 23, we present predicted values (blue lines), experimental
17

5,0
5,0 t=12:15 , S=984.6W/m²,T=48.4°C xSi12922 t=13:05 , S=948.8W/m²,T=46.2°C xSi12922
(a) 4,5 (b)
4,5
4,0
4,0 t=09:40 , S=764.0 W/m²,T=37.0°C t=14:45 , S=749.2 W/m²,T=43.0°C
Current (A) 3,5 3,5
Current (A)
t=08:50 , S=613.5 W/m²,T=35.2°C 3,0 t=15:35 , S=594.4 W/m²,T=39.9°C
3,0
2,5 2,5
t=08:00 , S=433.9 W/m²,T=29.1°C t=16:25 , S=416.4 W/m²,T=35.0°C
2,0 2,0
1,5 1,5
t=17:15 , S=233.6 W/m²,T=30.0°C
1,0 t=07:05 , S=229.0 W/m²,T=21.5°C 1,0
0,5 0,5 t=18:55 , S=30.3W/m²,T=24.4°C
t=05:30 , S=31.8W/m²,T=14.8°C
0,0 0,0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Fig. 25. Measured (red circles) and predicted (green lines) I-V curves at different moments in the morning (a) and in the afternoon (b) for xSi12922 PV module
operating outdoor at Eugene (Oregon) during June 7th 2013 from dawning to evening.

5,5 5,5
t=12:15 , S=984.6W/m²,T=46.3°C HIT05667 t=13:05 , S=948.8W/m²,T=45.7°C HIT05667
5,0 (a) 5,0 (b)
4,5 4,5
t=09:40 , S=764.0 W/m²,T=36.6°C t=14:45 , S=749.2 W/m²,T=42.7°C
4,0 4,0
3,5 3,5
Current (A)
Current (A)
t=08:50 , S=613.5 W/m²,T=33.1°C t=15:35 , S=594.4 W/m²,T=39.9°C

3,0 3,0
2,5 t=08:00 , S=433.9 W/m²,T=27.9°C
2,5 t=16:25 , S=416.4 W/m²,T=34.7°C
2,0 2,0
1,5 1,5
t=07:05 , S=229.0 W/m²,T=21.1°C t=17:15 , S=233.6 W/m²,T=30.7°C
1,0 1,0
0,5 t=05:30 , S=31.8W/m²,T=15.2°C
0,5 t=18:55 , S=30.3W/m²,T=26.2°C
0,0 0,0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Fig. 26. Measured (red circles) and predicted (green lines) I-V curves at different moments in the morning (a) and in the afternoon (b) for HIT05667 PV module
operating outdoor at Eugene (Oregon) during June 7th 2013 from sunrise to sundown.

6,5
t=12:15 , S=984.6W/m²,T=50.3°C CIGS39017 6,0 t=13:05 , S=948.8W/m²,T=48.9°C CIGS39017
6,0
(a) 5,5 (b)
5,5
5,0
5,0 t=09:40 , S=764.0 W/m²,T=39.4°C t=14:45 , S=749.2 W/m²,T=44.7 °C
4,5
4,5
4,0
4,0
Current (A)
Current (A)
t=08:50 , S=613.5 W/m²,T=36.6°C t=15:35 , S=594.4 W/m²,T=41.2°C

3,5 3,5
3,0 3,0
t=08:00 , S=433.9 W/m²,T=30.2°C 2,5
2,5 t=16:25 , S=416.4 W/m²,T=35.9°C
2,0 2,0
1,5 t=07:05 , S=229.0 W/m²,T=22.4°C
1,5
t=17:15 , S=233.6 W/m²,T=30.3°C
1,0 1,0
0,5 t=05:30 , S=31.8W/m²,T=15.2°C 0,5 t=18:55 , S=30.3W/m²,T=25.2°C
0,0 0,0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Fig. 27. Measured (red circles) and predicted (green lines) I-V curves at different moments in the morning (a) and in the afternoon (b) for CIGS39017 PV module
operating outdoor at Eugene (Oregon) during June 7th 2013 from dawning to evening.
values (red points) as well as normalized error NE (green lines) of 4.7.2. Prediction of I-V curves and maximum powers of June 7th 2013 at
maximum power as functions of real-time t for four PV modules oper- Eugene (Oregon)
ating outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) during March 16th 2011 from dawning In Figs. 24–27, we plot experimental characteristics (red circles)
to evening. coming from NREL measurements of PV modules set at Eugene
18
3,5
mSi460A8 xSi12922
5
3,0
4 2,5
NRMSE (%)
NRMSE (%)
3 2,0
2 1,5
1,0
1
0,5
0
0,0
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
4,5 12
HIT05667 CIGS39017
4,0 11
10
3,5 9
NRMSE (%)
NRMSE (%)
3,0 8
2,5 7
6
2,0 5
1,5 4
1,0 3
2
0,5 1
0,0 0
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Fig. 28. NRMSE of current for all predicted I-V curves corresponding to PV modules (mSi460A8, xSi12922, HIT05667 and CIGS39017) operating outdoor at Eugene
(Oregon) during June 7th 2013 from dawning to evening.
1,50 1,5
80 Measured values mSi460A8 80 Measured values xSi12922
Predicted values 1,25 Predicted values
70 70
60 1,00 1,0

Peak power (W)
Peak power (W)
60
50 0,75 50
40 0,50 40 0,5
30 0,25 30
20 20 0,0
0,00
10 10 Normalized Errors
Normalized Errors -0,25
0 0 -0,5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
2,5 4,0
200 Predicted values Predicted values 3,5
2,0 120 3,0
175
Peak power (W)

Peak power (W)
150 100 2,5

1,5
2,0
125 80
1,0 1,5
100
60 1,0
75 0,5
40 0,5
50 0,0
0,0 20 Normalized Errors
25 Normalized Errors -0,5
0 -0,5 0 -1,0
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Fig. 29. Predicted and measured values of maximum power as well as normalised error versus real-time t for all four kinds of PV modules operating outdoor at
Eugene (Oregon) on June 7th 2013 from dawning to evening under real environmental conditions.
19
(Oregon) and forecasted characteristics (green lines) obtained by the Declaration of Competing Interest
approach proposed in Section 3.4. The NREL measurements were taken
at given times on June 7th 2013 from dawning to midday (Figs (24a) to The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
(27a)) and from midday to evening (Figs (24b) to (27b)). interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influ-
In Fig. 28, we present NRMSE of current for all current–voltage ence the work reported in this paper.
characteristics predicted using mathematical models proposed in
Section 3.4 with regard to current–voltage characteristics measured by Acknowledgments
NREL researchers on June 7th 2013 from sunrise to sundown at Eugene
(Oregon). One can remark that NRMSE of current does not exceed 5% The authors M. Z. and H. E. address their heartfelt acknowl-
for mSi460A8, xSi12922 and HIT05667 PV modules, however it in- edgments to Ministry of Higher Education of Kingdom of Morocco as
creases up to 11% at sunup for CIGS39017. well as to University Chouaib Doukkali (UCD) for their financial sup-
In Fig. 29, we present predicted values (blue lines), experimental va- port. All authors are very grateful to National Renewable Energy
lues (red points) as well as normalized error NE (green lines) of maximum Laboratory (NREL) for providing us meteorological and photovoltaic
power as functions of real-time t for four PV modules operating outdoor at data we used to validate the proposed methods. Special thanks are
Eugene (Oregon) during June 7th 2013 from sunrise to sundown. addressed to William Marion for his prompt help and to Nadia Boutekra
for proofreading the manuscript.
5. Conclusion
Appendix A. Supplementary data
In this study, single-diode electronic circuit has been considered to
depict photovoltaic modules operating outdoor, under real meteor- Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://
ological conditions. Attention has been focused on modeling variations of doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2020.113071.
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Energy Conversion and Management 220 (2020) 113071

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Energy Conversion and Management

Numerical method and new analytical models for determining temporal T

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

1. Introduction Renewable energies appear as a potential solution to reduce glasshouse

Nomenclature IMPP Maximum power current of PV module (A)

existing approaches aiming indirect prediction of maximum power

RS IX + VOC 2 modules are functions of S and T . To describe these photovoltaic

3.2. Extraction of real-time values of model-parameters for photovoltaic (20)

+ NS VTh (T )( V , MPP ln(S )+ V , MPP (ln(S ))2

In order to assess precision and accuracy of the analytical formulas

3.6. Assessment of numerical extraction method and analytical formulas

In this paragraph, we define Normalized Root Mean Square Error

4.1. Presentation of meteorological data and photovoltaic measurements

Model 1 [26] Model 1 [18] Model 1 [58]

Model 2 [52] Model 2 [61] Model 2 [63]

VOC (S, T ) ISC , ref VOC (S , T ) ISC , ref VOC (S, T )

Normalized Errors (%)

Normalized Errors (%)

Normalized Errors (%)

Normalized Errors (%)

20,5 0,5 0,5

Open-circuit voltage (V)

Normalized Errors (%)

Open-circuit voltage (V)

Normalized Errors (%)

Normalized Errors (%)

16,5 Measured values mSi460A8 0,7 Measured values xSi12922 0,7

Maximum power voltage (V)

Normalized Errors (%)

Normalized Errors (%)

Maximum power voltage (V)

Normalized Errors (%)

Normalized Errors (%)

mSi460A8 xSi12922 mSi460A8 xSi12922 mSi460A8 xSi12922

HIT05667 CIGS39017 HIT05667 CIGS39017 HIT05667 CIGS39017

Proposed Model 8 Model 1

4,0 Model 3 Analytical values

Measured Generated Predicted Measured Generated Predicted

0,5 t=06:40 , S=85.6W/m²,T=24.7°C 0,5

Measured Generated Predicted Measured Generated Predicted

2,5 2,5 t=15:55 , S=489.9W/m²,T=43.5°C

t=08:25 , S=406.2 W/m²,T=40.1°C 2,0

0,5 t=06:40, S=85.6W/m²,T=24.6°C 0,5

Measured Generated Predicted Measured Generated Predicted

0,5 t=06:40, S=85.6W/m²,T=25.2°C 0,5

Measured Generated Predicted Measured Generated Predicted

3,0 t=15:55 , S=489.9W/m²,T=44.4°C

Normalized Errors (%)

Normalized Errors (%)

Nominal power (W)

Normalized Errors (%)

Nominal power (W)

Normalized Errors (%)

Normalized Errors (%)

Normalized Errors (%)

Measured Predicted Measured Predicted

Measured Predicted Measured Predicted

Measured Predicted Measured Predicted

Measured Predicted Measured Predicted

2,0 100 3,0

Normalized Errors (%)