Generalized Weighted Permutation Entropy analysis of satellite

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hot-pixel time series in Brazilian biomes

Tatijana Stosic and Borko Stosic∗

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Departamento de Estatística e Informática, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco,
Rua Dom Manoel de Medeiros s/n, Dois Irmãos, 52171-900 Recife-PE, Brazil

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Abstract

In this work we analyze hot-pixel satellite data, proxy for natural and anthropogenic

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vegetation and forest fires, using recently proposed method Generalized weighted permutation

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entropy (GWPE). The current analysis of data from 2002 to 2022 for six Brazilian biomes sheds
new light on differences among the biomes in terms of ordinal pattern entropy, for both small and
large fluctuations. It is found that for all biomes large fluctuations in fire temporal series show
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higher complexity level than small fluctuations, small fluctuations being more predictable as
indicated by lower entropy values. Moreover, for fire sensitive biomes Amazon and Atlantic Forest
the three dimensional complexity entropy curves in the complexity-entropy-scale causality box
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(CESCB) are rather similar (indicating similar dynamics for both small and large fluctuations), as
well as for fire dependent biomes Pantanal and Pampa, while fire independent Caatinga biome
shows different, distinct behavior. Finally, the similarity in lower parts of the CESCB curves
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(corresponding to small fluctuations) between Amazon and Cerrado reflects the changes of fire
dynamics due to human activities.
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Keywords: Generalized Weighted Permutation Entropy, satellite hot-pixels, Brazilian biomes

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This preprint research paper has not been peer reviewed. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4519419
 Introduction

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Vegetation fires in Brazil represent a subject of major interest, that has been up to date
addressed in a large number of works (see e.g. [1-4] and references therein). They affect various
ecological factors and processes such as soil properties [5], vegetation cover [6], hydrological

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cycle [7] and biodiversity [8]. Burning vegetation also contributes to global warming by releasing
black and organic carbon and greenhouse gases [9,10]. Between 1999 and 2018, 16,141,383 fire
foci were detected in Brazilian biomes among which the most affected were Cerrado with 41.56%
and Amazon with 38.34% of the total number of fire foci. The fraction of fires in other biomes

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was much smaller: 9.89% in the Atlantic Forest, 5.94% in the Caatinga, 3.83% in the Pantanal and
0.44% in the Pampa biome [11]. In 2020 over 312,140 km2 of the country’s area was burned by

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vegetation fires. The highest number of fire foci was detected in Amazon rainforest biome (46.3%)
and Cerrado (28.6%), a savanna biome mostly associated with deforestation. Although accounting

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for only 13% of total fires, the Pantanal wetland biome was considered as most severely affected
biome (40,606 km2 burned area, almost 30% of the biome), as it had the highest number of fires
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since the beginning of data records in 1998, with devastating ecological consequences [12,13].
Different from Amazon and Cerrado, Pantanal fires were strongly related to severe drought that
started in 2019 and peaked in 2020 as most extreme and widespread drought along the last 70 years
[14]. Due to extreme complexity of the system fires/environment that includes the origins, spread
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and consequences of fires, the modelling of this phenomenon is recognized as one the most
challenging interdisciplinary scientific issues of the modern world [15-17].
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There is an increasing effort of the scientific community to improve the existing theoretical
and computational models of fire behavior in order to increase the understanding of fire-related
phenomena in different ecosystems, which is crucial for development of new more efficient
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methods for sustainable management of bio environmental resources, land use and agriculture
[18]. The current work represents a contribution in this direction.

In order to increase the understanding about fires as a complex system, the empirical
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analysis of their spatial and temporal distribution should be performed by using the appropriate
methods that can provide important information about the nature of the underlying mechanisms
that govern fire temporal and spatial variability, which can complement the results obtained by
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classical statistics. One of the most important characteristic of wild-land fires is that they (as other

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 natural hazards as landslides, earthquakes, snow avalanches and floods) belong to the class of

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phenomena that exhibit self-organized criticality (SOC) which is the characteristic of non-
equilibrium systems driven by persistent, slow energy input [19]. The fingerprint of SOC is
power-law behavior of frequency-burned area distribution, as universal property of fires

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independently of geographic locations, vegetation cover and climatic conditions [20,21]. Other
results are based on temporal and spatial clustering [22], long- term correlations [23], multifractal
dynamics [24], information content [25] and complex networks [26].

Considering the gravity of the negative effects of fires in different parts of Brazil, the

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interest to study Brazilian fires spreads far beyond the local scale [11], thus it seems paramount to
address this phenomenon with any means available in general, and in particular with the novel,

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computationally intensive methods. In this work we employ the recently introduced method [27]
Generalized weighted permutation entropy (GWPE) to study the time series of satellite hotspots

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of the six Brazilian biomes: Amazon, Cerrado, Caatinga, Atlantic Forest, Pantanal and Pampa.
The Cerrado, Pantanal, and Pampa biomes which are dominated by grasslands and open savannas
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are considered fire-dependent ecosystems because their plants and animals are adapted to fires,
and these ecosystems coevolve with fires [12,28]. Amazon and Atlantic Forest with dominance of
humid tropical forests are fire-sensitive biomes: they are not adapted to fires which usually appear
during severe drought conditions, or because of degradation, which makes them vulnerable to fires.
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In these biomes fires can cause serious environmental consequences and loss of biodiversity [8,12].
Finally, Caatinga is the only biome that is fire independent due to the unfavorable climatic
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conditions (e.g., lightening events are rare) and vegetation cover that is mostly semi-arid scrub
forest which doesn’t contain enough flammable biomass [12]. By applying GWPE method on
hotspots temporal series we analyze the complexity of fluctuations of fire dynamics over the wide
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range of scales, shedding new light on the underlying process.

Methodology
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Data

Satellite hot-pixel data were obtained from the site of the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
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Espaciais (INPE) https://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/bdqueimadas#exportar-dados for the

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 period 04/07/2002 to 12/31/2022, from the reference satellite AQUA_M-T. The data were

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integrated into daily time series for the six Brazilian biomes: Amazon, Caatinga, Cerrado, Atlantic
Forest, Pampa and Pantanal, as shown in Fig.1

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Figure 1. Map of the six Brazilian biomes.
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The hot-pixel time series shown in Fig. 2 demonstrate pronounced yearly periodicity, where the
scale for Pampa and Pantanal was adjusted to emphasize lower and higher frequencies for these
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two regions, respectively.

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Figure 2. Daily frequency of hot-pixels per 100000km2 for the six Brazilian biomes.
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 Generalized Weighted Permutation Entropy

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The GWPE method was recently introduced [27] to enhance the understanding of time
series provided by the Permutation entropy (PE) [29], Complexity-entropy causality plane (CECP)
[30], and their weighted variants [31], which have been extensively used in diverse

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phenomenological studies over the last couple of decades.

In the PE method [29] segments (words) of a given size along the time series are
considered, and the permutation entropy is calculated based on the word pattern distribution

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(frequencies of occurrence of different possible word patterns), while complexity in the CECP
method is calculated as the normalized product of the permutation entropy with the Jensen-
Shannon divergence which quantifies the distance of the pattern distribution from the uniform

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distribution. More precisely, for a time series 𝑥𝑡, 𝑡 = 1,…,𝑁 overlapping segments of size 𝑑 > 1, 𝑋𝑠
= (𝑥𝑠, 𝑥𝑠+1,…, 𝑥𝑠+𝑑―1), 𝑠 = 1,…,𝑁 ― (𝑑 ― 1) are extracted. The values in each segment are sorted
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in increasing order 𝑥𝑠+𝑟0 ≤ 𝑥𝑠+𝑟1 ≤ … ≤ 𝑥𝑠+𝑟𝑑―1, and the vector of indices 𝑣𝑠 ≡ (𝑟0, 𝑟1,…,𝑟𝑑―1),
corresponding to one of the 𝑑! possible permutations of integers 0,1,…,𝑑 ― 1, represents
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symbolically the original segment. Relative frequencies of possible permutations 𝜋𝑖 , 𝑖 = 1,…,𝑑!
represent the empirical distribution P ≡ {p(𝜋𝑖) , 𝑖 = 1,…,𝑑!}, which is used to calculate the
permutation entropy as
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𝑑!

H(P) = ― p(𝜋𝑖) log p(𝜋𝑖) . (1)

𝑖=1
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In the CECP method [30] the Jensen-Shannon divergence

J(P,U) = H{ [𝑃 +2 𝑈] ― H[𝑃2] ― H[𝑈2]} (2)

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is used to calculate the normalized complexity measure

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𝐻(𝑃) 𝐽(𝑃,𝑈)
C(P) = (3)
𝑑! 𝐽𝑚𝑎𝑥

where 𝐽𝑚𝑎𝑥 is the maximum possible value of 𝐽(𝑃,𝑈)

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 1 𝑑! + 1
𝐽𝑚𝑎𝑥 = ― [ log(𝑑! + 1) ― 2 log 2𝑑! + log 𝑑! ] (4)

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2 𝑑!

obtained when only a single pattern is observed. In the CECP representation H(P) is used for the
horizontal and C(P) for the vertical coordinate on a two-dimensional plot.

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The Weighted Permutation Entropy (WPE) [31] was introduced to account for the
amplitude of the values in the word segments by replacing the relative pattern frequencies by
probability

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∑𝑠, 𝜋𝑠=𝜋𝑖
𝑤𝑠
p(𝜋𝑖) = (5)
∑𝑠 𝑤𝑠

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𝑑―1 𝑑―1
where 𝑤𝑠 = 1/𝑑∑𝑖=0 (𝑥𝑠+𝑖 ― 〈𝑥𝑠〉)2 is the variance, and 〈𝑥𝑠〉 = 1/𝑑∑𝑖=0 𝑥𝑠+𝑖 is the average of
segment values. The WPE and the corresponding CECP extension are then implemented using the
above formulas (1-4). er
The above methods have been implemented along the last decades in a large number of
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applications, ranging from physiology [32] and finances [33] to ecology [34], geophysics [35] and
hydrology [36]. Moreover, in a number of works it was shown that the weighted variants perform
better than the original versions [32,37].
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Only recently the current authors have introduced the GWPE method, which generalizes
the previous methods such that PE and WPE represent special cases. This is achieved through the
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probability definition

∑′𝑠, 𝜋𝑠=𝜋𝑖
𝑤𝑠𝑞/2
p(𝜋𝑖,𝑞) = , (6)
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∑′𝑠 𝑤𝑠𝑞/2

where ―∞ < 𝑞 < ∞ is a continuous scaling parameter, and the prime in the summation indicates
that the segments with strictly zero variance 𝑤𝑠 are omitted. The parameter 𝑞 serves as a
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“magnifying glass”, such that negative values of 𝑞 enhance small fluctuations, and the positive
values enhance large fluctuations. It should be stressed here that the PE method corresponds to
𝑞 = 0, and WPE corresponds to 𝑞 = 2.
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Results and discussion

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The locations of the hotspots temporal series on the CECP and WCECP plane, for six

Brazilian biomes are presented in Fig. 2. where we identify the following patterns: i) in CECP

Amazon and Atlantic Forest have similar position (high entropy range) as well as Pantanal and

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Caatinga, while Pampa and Cerrado are separated, Cerrado being closer to Amazon and Atlantic

Forest; ii) In WCEP biomes cluster in two groups, one formed by Amazon and Atlantic Forest and

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other formed by Cerrado, Caatinga, Pantanal and Pampa. The locations of hotspots temporal series

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in WECP reflect the biomes classification with respect to fires: fire sensitive biomes Amazon and

Atlantic Forest cluster together as well as the fire dependent biomes Cerrado, Pantanal and Pampa,
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while fire independent biome Caatinga shows similar complexity degree as fire dependent biomes.

Similar clustering was obtained by da Silva Junior et al. [11] using annual carbon emission and

fire foci detected during the period 1999 - 2018. When amplitude information is included
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(WCECP) entropy and complexity of ordinal patterns distribution reflect better the biome/fire

relation than when only local ordering of values is considered (CECP). In CECP Amazon and
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Atlantic Forest still cluster together, while fire dependent biomes Cerrado, Pantanal and Pampa

occupy distinct locations, Caatinga being close to Pantanal. These results indicate that when local
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ordering of hotspot values is considered to describe the complexity of fire regime, the amplitude

of fluctuations should also be taken into account. It is known that fires are extremely complex
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systems due to richness of the components (natural and anthropogenic) and interactions, and any

new aspect of this complexity revealed by methods originated from complex system science
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 contributes to better understanding of underlying processes which as an ultimate goal has the

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development of reliable models.

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Figure 3. a) CECP and b) WCECP for Brazilian biomes.
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This preliminary analysis (comparing WCECP and CECP performance to distinguish

complexity of fire regime in Brazilian biomes), indicates that recent generalization of Permutation
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entropy, Generalized weighted permutation entropy (GWPE) method, that evaluates complexity

of time series fluctuations over a wide range of scales, should be implemented to extend the CECP
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and WCECP results. Instead of points, GWPE generates two dimensional curves in entropy

complexity plane, by including an additional continuous scale parameter q, that serves as a

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magnifying glass for different fluctuation sizes (negative q enhances small fluctuations, and

positive q large fluctuations). These curves (shown in Fig. 4) display following properties: i) for
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all biomes the curves that describe behavior of small fluctuations (𝑞 < 0) are located below the

curves that describe behavior of large fluctuations (𝑞 > 0), indicating that for subsets of

small/large fluctuations that have the same entropy values, the large fluctuations have higher
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complexity; ii) for all biomes the WPE values are lower than PE values except for Pampa for

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 which PE is slightly lower than WPE; iii) the highest PE values are observed for Amazon and

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Atlantic forest that are fire sensitive biomes and fires are strongly related to human activities,

principally forest fragmentation due to agricultural expansion, and in the case of Atlantic forest

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(that occupies coastal area) urban development [36,37]. Considering entropy, small fluctuations

(𝑞 < 0) are more predictable than large fluctuations (𝑞 > 0) as indicated by lower entropy values.

This effect is more pronounced for Amazon and Atlantic Forest for which large fluctuations in

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fires counts are related to extreme climatic conditions (severe droughts) and small fluctuations to

human activities (deforestation) which is more predictable. Cerrado’s GWPE curves are more

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similar to Amazon and Atlantic Forest than to other fire-dependent biomes Pantanal and Pampa,

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indicating that human activity that is also intensive in Cerrado disturbed the natural fire regime

[38]. In addition, Cerrado and Amazon display similar seasonal patterns with fire peaks from June
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to September [11], which could be an explanation of the similarity in upper part of GWPE curves

(𝑞 > 0) that describe large fluctuations [11]. The GWPE curve of fire independent Caatinga biome

for small fluctuations (𝑞 < 0) resembles that of Pantanal. Both biomes demonstrate low fire count
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due to vegetation cover (Caatinga) and large wetland area (Pantanal), but these natural unfavorable

conditions for fire initiation and propagation are severely disturbed by human activities
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(replacement of native vegetation by agricultural and pasture areas) [ 39,40] resulting in similarity

in fire dynamics complexity.

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Figure 4. Entropy complexity for the six biomes as a function of scaling parameter 𝑞.
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To further improve the comparison among hotspot series, we construct the complexity-
entropy-scale causality box (CESCB) [27], that represents entropy, complexity, and magnification
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factor q as coordinates in the three-dimensional space, where each of hotspot time series generates

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 tree dimensional signature curve. These curves are shown in Fig. 5 where we observe the similarity

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between the shapes of these curves for fire sensitive biomes Amazon and Atlantic Forest and for
fire dependent biomes Pantanal and Pampa. Although Cerrado is a fire dependent biome, the shape
of CESCB curve resembles those of Amazon and Atlantic Forest. This result indicates that the

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complexity of fires fluctuations over wide range of scales in these biomes emerges as the result of
anthropogenic rather than natural factors. The fire independent biome Caatinga shows distinct
behavior.

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Figure 5. Three-dimensional GWPE signature for the six biomes.

Conclusion

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Natural fire regimes in Brazilian biomes are shaped by vegetation cover and climatic

conditions, while human activities disturb natural equilibrium between fires and environment by

changing land cover, which modifies fire dynamics towards higher complexity regime.

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By evaluating complexity of fires temporal fluctuations over a wide range of scales, the

current GWPE approach enhances the understanding of these effects provided by PE and WPE

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methods. The novel results of this work are: i) for all biomes large fluctuations in fire temporal

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series show higher complexity level than small fluctuations, small fluctuations being more

predictable as indicated by lower entropy values ii) for sensitive biomes Amazon and Atlantic
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Forest the three dimensional complexity entropy curves in the complexity-entropy-scale causality

box (CESCB) are similar, as well as for fire dependent biomes Pantanal and Pampa, while fire

independent Caatinga biome shows different behavior. Finally, the similarity in lower parts
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(𝑞 < 0) of the CESCB curves between Amazon and Cerrado reflects the changes of fire dynamics

due to human activities. This work represents a contribution to the formation of a scientific base
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that should eventually encompass all aspects of the fire’s behavior and its relation to natural and

anthropogenic factors, to be used in evaluation of the existing and development of new models of
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fire dynamics. The novel GWPE method offers new knowledge about the complexity of temporal

fluctuations of fires over a wide range of scales and can be used to enhance studies of other
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phenomena where PE and WPE methods were shown useful.

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Acknowledgments

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 We acknowledge support of Brazilian agencies CAPES and CNPq (grants No 308782/2022-4 and

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309499/2022-4).

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This preprint research paper has not been peer reviewed. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4519419