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'The First Annual Not "The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report" Report' by Grant Goddard
'The First Annual Not "The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report" Report' by Grant Goddard
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
www.grantgoddard.co.uk
August 2010
Contents
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
UK DAB & digital radio forecasts UK radio receiver hardware data UK digital radio listening data
The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
33.0
32.1
32.3
2009Q4
33.4
2010Q1
34.5
2010Q2
35.3 2010Q3
2010Q4
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
20
15
10
10.52 8.53
5
4.44 2.72
6.45
actual 2004 DRDB forecast 2005 DRDB forecast 2006 DRDB forecast 2007 DRDB forecast 2008 2009 2010
1.29 2004
2005
2006
2007
[source: Digital Radio Development Bureau] The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010 5
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
22%
21%
actual (DRDB four-quarter m oving average) DRWG aspirational tim etable (January 2009) trendline
2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1
[source: Digital Radio Development Bureau, Digital Radio Working Group] The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010 6
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
2018
2019
2020
UK digital radio listening forecast Digital Radio Working Group radio specialist
Radio listening via digital platforms (% of radio listening at year-end)
55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20.9 20 15 11.0 10 5.9 5 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 12.5 18.3 16.6 actual (RAJAR year-end) DRWG aspirational tim etable (Jan 2009) trendline 50
Grant Goddard
[source: RAJAR, Digital Radio Working Group] The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010 8
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
56%
49%
26% 24%
31% 28%
20.9%
Trendline predicts 50% criterion to be achieved yearend 2018, rather than 2013 or 2015
2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4
9
Digital Britain ('organic grow th' forecast June 2009) Digital Britain ('drive to digital' forecast June 2009)
[source: RAJAR, Digital Britain, Value Partners] The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
50%
Commercial radio listening via digital platforms (% of commercial radio listening at year-end)
30% 30%
18.1%
19.0%
19.7%
Commercial radio listening via digital much lower than RadioCentre target
0% 2004
[source: RAJAR, RadioCentre] The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010 10
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010
11
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
200 863 180 160 140 120 100 Year-on-year growth in DAB 80 radio receiver sales negative during 60 2009 40 20 1 -10 20 -1 -6 -4 0 -20 483
358
366
308
294
245
287
299
183
250
205
134
111
34
38
40 5
17
13 4
18
21
28
0 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4
39
53
102
335
828
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
12,000
22% 21% Only 21% of new radios sold in the UK are DAB
2,006
2,114
2,174
10,000
1,680
1,734
1,761
1,824
2,180
2,070
1,988
8,000
10,678
10,611
10,657
10,550
6,000
2,000
0 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009
7,284
4,000
7,854
10,169
9,892
9,495
8,140
8,062
7,978
8,209
8,227
7,906
8,030
Grant Goddard
radio specialist Take-up of DAB hardware is slowing
34.5 2010Q1 35.3 2010Q2
14
18
15.3
11.1
13.6
15.3
16.0
21.7
2009Q2
2009Q3
32.3
RAJAR
[source: RAJAR, Ofcom] The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010
Ofcom
2009Q4
33.4
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
How likely is it that your household will get a DAB radio in the next 12 months? (6 months in 2006 and 2007) - % of responses
80 76 74
64 60 55
40
20
17
0 likely
[source: Ofcom]
2006
The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
Consumer accessibility to digital radio much higher for platforms other than DAB
35
digital TV
DAB radio
16
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010
17
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
16.6%
17.8%
12.5%
9.3%
15.0%
17.9%
18.7%
18.3%
20.1%
60%
12.9%
71.1%
72.7%
69.5%
68.4%
68.6%
40% 66.1%
74.0%
67.5%
21.1%
80%
21.1%
66.6%
20.9%
66.7%
24.0%
66.2%
66.1%
20%
0% 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 analogue
[source: RAJAR] The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010 18
digital
unspecified
67.0%
24.6%
8.5%
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
60%
Digital platforms listening is recorded as increasing, partly because less unspecified listening is being recorded
40% 12.9% 15.0% 16.6% 17.8% 17.9% 18.7% 18.3% 20.1% 21.1% 21.1% 20.9% 24.0% 24.6%
21.1% 13.9% 9.4% 9.5% 12.6% 12.9% 13.0% 12.5% 12.7% 12.8% 12.5% 9.3% 8.5% UNSPECIFIED 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2
19
20%
0% ANALOGUE 2007 Q2
[source: RAJAR] The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010
2007 Q3
2007 Q4
2008 Q1
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
60%
40%
RAJAR definition of internet listening excludes on-demand, listen again, podcasts, internet-only radio and online music (Last.fm, Spotify, etc.)
7.0% 8.6% 9.9% 10.8% 11.0% 11.3% 11.4% 12.7% 13.1% 13.3% 13.7% 15.1% 15.8%
20%
2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.4% 3.6% 3.6% 3.4% 4.0% 4.1%
1.5% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.9% 2.9% LISTENING VIA INTERNET
2007 Q3
2007 Q4
2009 Q1
2009 Q2
2009 Q3
1.7% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.7% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% DIGITAL UNSPECIFIED 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
digital: DTV, 5.0% digital: DAB, 13.4% unspecified, 8.5% all analogue, 67.1%
[source: RAJAR, Q2 2010] The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010 21
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
Dial-up
[source: RAJAR, Q2 2010] The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010 22
10
12
14
16
18
BBC Radio 2 BBC Radio 4 BBC Radio 1 Heart Network (UK) 5.8 4.8 3.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 Planet Rock Total XFM (UK) The Hits Smash Hits Radio Sunrise Radio National Heat 1Xtra from the BBC BBC Asian Network UK Jazz FM Absolute 80s Five Live Sports Extra Absolute Classic Rock NME Radio Panjab Radio Chill 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 BBC Radio Five Live Classic FM Galaxy Network (UK) Total Magic Total Real Radio Total Smooth Radio Total Kiss Network talkSPORT Total LBC (UK) Total Absolute Radio Gold Network (UK) BBC Radio 3 BBC 6 Music BBC World Service BBC Radio 7 Total Kerrang! 9.3 12.5
0 15.9
The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010
Listening to digital radio stations [red] remains at low levels radio specialist
Grant Goddard
23
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
local DAB
Freeview
internet
FreeSat
owner
station
business model
1999 Planet Rock 2010 TIML Absolute 80s 2009 Premier Christian Radio 2009 UCB UK 2009 Amazing Radio 2008 BFBS Radio 2009 IPC NME Radio 2009 Panjab Radio 2009 Folder Media Fun Kids 2006 GCap Media TheJazz 2000 GCap Media Capital Life 2000 C4 + UBC Oneword Radio 1999 GCap Media Core 2000 Saga PrimeTime Radio 2000 Bloomberg Talkmoney 2000 ITN ITN News % SHARE OF ALL RADIO LISTENING % SHARE OF LISTENING VIA DIGITAL PLATFORMS % SHARE OF LISTENING VIA DAB PLATFORM
commercial commercial donations donations unsigned music government commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial
0.50 0.15
718,000 288,000
closed 2010
0.13 0.07
253,000 155,000
closed 2008 closed 2008 closed 2008 closed 2008 closed 2006 closed 2003 closed 2002
[source: RAJAR] The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010 24
Grant Goddard
radio specialist
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
Dial-up
COMMERCIAL RADIO
BBC RADIO
The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010
2010Q2
25
Only 5% of commercial Goddard Grant radio listening is to exclusively digital radio specialist content
50% 5.2
4.7
4.6
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.2
4.5
4.0
3.9
3.4
3.5
3.6
4 3.0 3.2
36% 33% 28% 29% 26% 27% 26% 24% 24% 23%
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.7
3 2.1
3.0
3.3
1.9
22%23%22% 20%
0 2003Q1 2003Q2 2003Q3 2003Q4 2004Q1 2004Q2 2004Q3 2004Q4 2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1
0.6
Only 22% of commercial radio listening via digital platforms is to exclusively digital content
0.7
listening to com m ercial digital-only radio stations as % of all com m ercial radio listening [left axis] listening to com m ercial digital-only radio stations as % of digital listening to com m ercial radio [right axis]
[source: RAJAR] The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010 26
4.3
Only 4% of BBC Grant Goddard radio listening is to radio specialist exclusively digital content
40%
4 3.3 3.5
4.0 30% 3.2 2.9 3.1 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.2 22% 19% 16%16%16% 17% 16% 15%14%15%15% 14% 13% 20% 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.0 10% 0.8 2003Q1 0.0 2003Q2 0.0
Only 16% of BBC radio listening via digital platforms is to exclusively digital content
0% 2004Q2 2004Q3 2004Q4 2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
listening to BBC digital-only radio stations as % of all BBC radio listening [left axis] listening to BBC digital-only radio stations as % of digital listening to BBC radio [right axis]
[source: RAJAR] The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010 27
Grant Goddard A separate RAJAR MIDAS survey (that includes non-linear radio consumption) demonstrates that radio specialist internet-delivered radio reaches almost as much of the UK adult population as the DAB radio platform
20.6 20.5 23.1 17.9 15.3 16.8 17.5 23.5 2010 Q2
28
18 13.3 13.5 16 11.9 14 12 10 8 6 2.7 4 2 0 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 3.6 7.3 9.3
2007 Q4
2008 Q1
2008 Q2
2008 Q3
14.0
17.8
20
2008 Q4
18.9
2009 Q1
19.9
22
2009 Q2
2009 Q3
2009 Q4
20.4 2010 Q1
internet platform
[source: RAJAR MIDAS] The First Annual Not The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report Report Grant Goddard: August 2010
DAB platform