“ The need of absolute and relative

comparison. ”

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What is risk?
 In epidemiology, risk has been defined as “the probability of an event during
a specified period of time”

 The media often mentions risk when reporting on research, but this can
sometimes be misleading

 Risk can be explained in terms of absolute or relative risk

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Absolute Risk
 Measures the likelihood of a particular outcome, such as developing
a disease, over a period of time, it doesn’t guarantee it will

 To determine the rates of disease by person, place, time

 Absolute risk- Incidence and prevalence

 According to Cancer Research UK, the absolute risk for developing bowel
cancer is around 5%, meaning 5 in every 100 people would be expected
to develop bowel cancer even without eating a large bacon sandwich
daily

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Relative Risk
 Relative risk is a comparison between two groups of people, or in the
same group of people over time

 It can be expressed as a ratio

 To identify the risk factors for the disease

 Relative Risk= Incidence among exposed/Incidence among non exposed

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Example of RR
 In an outbreak of varicella (chickenpox) in Oregon in 2002, varicella was
diagnosed in 18 of 152 vaccinated children compared with 3 of 7
unvaccinated children. Calculate the risk ratio.

 Risk of varicella among vaccinated children = 18 ⁄ 152 = 0.118 = 11.8%

Risk of varicella among unvaccinated children = 3 ⁄ 7 = 0.429 = 42.9%

Risk ratio = 0.118 ⁄ 0.429 = 0.28

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Absolute vs. Relative Risk

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 Absolute and Relative
Risk

Example 1-

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Example 2 -

Attributable Risk-
If 1 in 10 individuals with exposure develops the disease= 10%
and 1 in 100 individuals without exposure develop the disease= 1%

Relative Risk= 0.1/0.01= 10

Interpretation
Therefore, an individual has a 10% chance of developing the disease with
exposure (absolute risk), a 1% chance of developing the disease without
exposure (absolute risk), and they are 10 times more likely to develop the
disease if they have exposure (relative risk)

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Risk communication
 Framing of a risk statistic

- The size of the denominator and numerator can magnify risk perception

- In one study, those told a particular type of cancer kills 2,414 out of 10,000
rated it deadlier than another, killing 24.14 out of 100

 How we communicate and interpret risk?

 Media headlines saying something “doubles your risk of cancer”

 It is vital that the general public understand the difference between

absolute and relative risk

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To Summarize
 Relative risk  Absolute risk

• are better to assess the efficacy • are better to take decisions about
of a treatment a treatment

• help us find disparities, like if one • perspective how much benefit an

group is having better outcomes individual is likely to have from a
than another treatment

• how much more likely one group • the likelihood or probability

is to experience an outcome than of a particular event, such
another as developing a disease

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