REGIONAL IMMIGRATION OVERVIEW

Europe
October 2023
 1.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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The end of pandemic-era leniencies, the pace of policy change and the digitisation of immigration agencies are
a compliance maelstrom for businesses in Europe. The recent rapid and wide-ranging changes in immigration
policy demonstrate the pivotal role immigration policy plays in an organisation’s business and talent acquisition
strategy. Companies continue to struggle to navigate the patchwork of requirements across European
jurisdictions, with risks of non-compliance becoming more acute due to increased digitisation and data-sharing
among national and regional government agencies. Alongside the increase in government digitisation (with
government adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) proving transformative), businesses are themselves
increasingly turning to technology solutions to support monitoring and compliance of immigration requirements.

In this edition, the key themes for the next 12 months are unpacked and discussed in detail below this summary:

1. Forthcoming elections fuel uncertainty in immigration policy. Businesses and individuals must
understand the impact of elections and the full breadth of forthcoming immigration policy changes to
inform their business and talent acquisition strategies. Beyond navigating uncertain election
outcomes, misinformation can also spread in the press and social media. For instance, the EU’s
forthcoming pre-travel authorisation (ETIAS) for visa-exempt nationals has been mischaracterised as
a visa requirement; and the German ‘Opportunity Card’ has been referred to in the media as a
‘lottery’, immediately leading to associations with the well-known U.S. Green Card Lottery, and
incorrectly representing it as a quicker path to German residency.

2. Talent attraction strategies are shifting. With the numerous forthcoming immigration policy
changes, organisations must balance business needs with employee preferences. Rising
government fees and the complexity of immigration processes require businesses to re-assess the
location of their entities and employees. Companies, who in the past have not looked at the cost of
relocations as a deciding factor, are now shifting focus and re-evaluating every relocation and
assignment. Many businesses, meanwhile, have slowed or frozen talent acquisition – with recent
economic challenges, and the current AI revolution, affecting decision making. Yet governments
throughout Europe are opening the door to skilled workers as part of addressing tight labour markets.

3. Government digitisation and data-sharing require employers and employees to be conscious

of their respective compliance responsibilities. In order to avoid penalties, employers must align
their internal systems and processes to ensure prompt action regarding time-sensitive immigration
notifications. For instance, there has been an increase in the failure of internal systems to report
internal cross-jurisdictional movements (an event which usually requires departure notifications),
leading to fines and potential future audits. Additionally, employees have personal responsibilities
with regards to their own immigration status, including monitoring Schengen allowance days on
personal and business trips as well as maintaining residence requirements if sent on temporary
secondments outside their country of residence. For instance, in the Netherlands, if a foreign
national sub-lets their apartment while on a temporary short-term secondment to another jurisdiction,
it could be considered a departure by the local townhall leading the immigration authority to cancel
their residence permit.

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 2.
FORTHCOMING
ELECTIONS FUEL
UNCERTAINTY IN
IMMIGRATION POLICY

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Migration policy is front and centre of European leaders’ agendas. It is routinely leveraged by political parties
and subject to swings in public sentiment and political trends. Recent elections in Europe have demonstrated
a notable political shift to the right, with gains made by the centre-right and far-right in Finland, Germany,
Greece and Italy this year. This shift is likely to influence the bloc’s approach to policy initiatives – from
climate issues and the green transition to asylum and migration management. The below timeline shows key
upcoming elections in Europe:

Businesses should be aware that immigration policy is likely to remain in flux and figure prominently in the
narrative of several European elections taking place in 2023 and 2024. A Eurobarometer survey in June 2023
showed that migration ranks among the top 3 most important issues for EU citizens. Elections to watch in the
coming 12 months include the following:

 Spain’s July 2023 parliamentary elections have left the country in political limbo. The anticipated
conservative parliamentary majority did not materialise, with the far right-wing Vox party losing seats
(suggesting a potential electoral ceiling for far right-wing politics in Europe). With no decisive winner, the
political situation must be resolved either via a patchwork of political coalitions; or the more emphatic
expedient of repeat elections in early 2024 (mirroring 2015-16 and 2019). Spain’s parliament has twice
rejected bids by the head of the centre-right Popular Party (which came first in the election) to form a
government. The leader of the socialist party (which came second in the elections) may now try his hand.
This political opacity will likely reduce Spain’s capacity to proactively drive change during its current term
as president of the European Union Council (expiring on December 31, 2023).
 Slovakia held a snap parliamentary election on September 30, 2023, following the collapse of the
incumbent government in late 2022 (with a caretaker government helming the controls ever since).
Robert Fico's populist party won the vote, but will need to establish a coalition in order to govern. Current
potential stablemates include the left-wing Hlas (Voice) party and the nationalist Slovak National Party.
Fico’s campaign included anti-migration rhetoric and criticism of open travel under Europe’s Schengen
policy. He is pushing for internal border controls to be established with Hungary – citing irregular
migration. In 2024, the country will vote for its president.
 Poland will have its parliamentary elections on October 15, 2023, with both the ruling nationalist party
and some centrist opposition politicians playing on anti-immigration sentiment (especially targeting
religious and ethnic minorities). At the regional level, Poland and Hungary have been holding out against
an EU deal on relocating migrants. Poland may hold a referendum on this deal on the same day as its
parliamentary election.
 The Netherlands will hold snap general elections in November 2023. In July 2023, the country’s coalition
government collapsed amid internal disagreement about proposed restrictions on refugee family
reunification.

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 Finland’s presidential election is scheduled for early 2024. As context to this election, a conservative
coalition government – which has flagged considerable immigration restrictions – came to power in mid-
2023.
 Belgium’s parliamentary election in June 2024 is likely to be as unpredictable and suspenseful as
previous elections. The current government is a tenuous seven-party coalition which has struggled to
reach consensus. The increase in asylum applications in 2023 has fueled concern over migration
management and seen a rise of Flemish far-right nationalist parties.
 European Parliament. Elections will take place in June 2024 for the 2024-2029 term with all eyes on
whether gains will be made by radical parties, which would further complicate reaching common positions
and passing legislation. Right-wing parties are currently predicted to make gains.

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 3.
TALENT ATTRACTION
POLICIES ARE SHIFTING
AMID LABOUR
SHORTAGES

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Against the backdrop of forthcoming elections, parties across the political spectrum are acknowledging the
role of migration in addressing acute labour shortages in the region. Employment in European countries is at
an all-time high, with a consequent spike in unfilled positions. Attracting foreign talent is crucial to resolving
labour shortages and key to future regional economic growth. The practical details, however, have proved
more difficult to define, including concepts like ‘talent’ and ‘skills’, the suitability and availability of legal
migration pathways, and facilitations required for talent attraction, among others.

Furthermore, there is currently a curious human-resources duality. Many businesses have slowed, or even
frozen, talent acquisition – opting instead for lean structures, with workforces and processes often being
streamlined. Several organisations are waiting to see what is over the AI-revolution horizon (further discussed
in our Q1 2023 and Q2 2023 Worldwide Immigration Trends Reports) before they make any significant pivots.
The significant economic headwinds of the last few years have not helped either. Yet, conversely,
governments throughout Europe are relaxing skilled worker immigration pathways, seeking to attract talent
amid tight labour markets in several sectors. Governments have effectively announced that they are ‘open for
business’, even as the private sector opts for a holding pattern.

Image from Employment up and labour market slack down in Q1 2023, Eurostat (June 16, 2023)

Delays in processing further complicate the ability of businesses to attract and retain foreign talent, leading
countries to introduce varying and wide-ranging immigration measures through to extensive national and EU
immigration reforms. Examples include:

 Significant immigration reforms

– In May 2023, the Spanish government implemented the EU Blue Card and amended its national
residence permit for highly qualified professionals, expanding the pool of eligible candidates and
increasing the permit’s validity length. Furthermore, in early 2023, Spain implemented a long-
awaited remote work visa, alongside expanding and relaxing access to permits under its skilled
labour-focused Entrepreneur Act.

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 – In a comprehensive reform of its immigration framework, Germany’s parliament in June 2023
passed a new immigration bill that both creates and expands immigration pathways for skilled
workers from non-EU countries (discussed in depth below). Its provisions will come into force
across November 2023, March 2024, and June 2024. Separately, the country’s federal
government has also proposed measures which would significantly relax naturalisation pathways.
– In July 2023, Italy’s conservative government announced it would issue 425,000 work permits to
non-EU nationals between 2023 and 2025, as part of the government’s efforts to resolve
considerable labour-market gaps especially in industries like construction and tourism.
Separately, the government also announced that 40,000 new quota spots are now available for
seasonal agricultural workers and hospitality workers.
– In a major shake-up of its immigration regime, Serbia is scheduled to introduce in early 2024 a
‘single permit’ (which will be issued on a biometric document), replacing the separate residence
and work permit. Various other liberalising measures came into effect in August 2023, including a
quicker pathway to permanent residence.
– Earlier this year, the French government put forth a new (and heavily opposed) immigration bill
that contemplates various new labour-focused migration pathways. The French leader has not
ruled out relying on ‘Article 49.3’ and forcing the bill through the National Assembly without a
vote. It is a risky play, opening the government up to a potential vote of no confidence.
 Relaxed requirements
– Austria has relaxed language requirements for Bosnian, Croatian, French, Serbian, and Spanish
nationals for its skilled-labour Red White Red Card.
– Iceland has relaxed its residency permit regime for employees, students and families. Under the
changes, residence permits are easier to get and last longer. Work rights are also simpler to
access.
– Switzerland in early 2023 relaxed its rules for highly-skilled non-EU nationals, including easing
labour market testing and residence permit requirements for industries facing skill shortages.
– Slovenia has relaxed an assortment of immigration rules as part of efforts to attract non-EU
labour. The potpourri of changes included relaxed self-sufficiency rules, a simplified process for
changing employers or job roles, and reduced fingerprint requirements. Further changes are
expected in late 2023, including reductions in minimum salary levels, and more lenient
recognition of foreign professional experience.
 Expanded work rights
– Spain has made it easier for foreign students to work during and after their studies (a two-
pronged policy change that is likely to immediately attract skilled workers while also better
retaining future skilled workers).
– The family members of foreign national residents in Luxembourg (such as spouses and
registered partners) can now work without requiring a separate work permit. The country also
reduced processing times for shortage and non-shortage work certificate applications.
– Iceland inked a youth mobility deal with Canada in August 2023. Under the agreement – which
comes into effect in 2024 – nationals from Canada and Iceland aged 18 to 30 will be able to
travel and work for up to 24 months in each other’s countries. In early 2024, the United
Kingdom will also expand its Youth Mobility Schemes with Australia and Canada, while

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 commencing an equivalent with Andorra. A scheme with Uruguay is also expected soon –
though legal formalities remain.
 Fast-tracked work
– Italy has sought to address skills shortages through alleviating bureaucratic bottlenecks. For
instance, non-EU nationals entering Italy under certain worker regimes (like the EU Blue Card
framework) can now work immediately upon receiving a work visa, and no longer need to wait
until they have signed a 'contract to stay’ at a prefecture immigration office. Separately, quotas
no longer apply to eligible foreign students, interns or trainees who want to convert a residence
permit into a work equivalent. Furthermore, eligible non-EU intra-corporate transferees will likely
soon be able to work in Italy without being subject to any work permit quota limits.
– In May 2023, Sweden announced a new four-category model for work permits, with a focus on
decreasing processing times – especially for highly qualified applicants and management and
leadership roles. A government report on the plans was published in September, with the
proposed changes to go into effect by the end of 2023 or early 2024.
 Forthcoming EU reforms and proposals
– EU Blue Card directive implementation. EU countries have until the end of November 18,
2023 to implement the revised Blue Card directive into national legislation. The changes from the
directive include expanding the scope of eligibility, lowering the salary threshold, and improving
intra-EU mobility, family reunification and work authorisation pathways.
– Race to close European Parliament matters. In the run up to the European Parliament
elections in June 2024, there is a concerted effort to close matters for the members of Parliament
to decide on before the 2019-2024 term concludes, including for asylum and migration matters
(such as the long-term residence directive, the screening of third-country nationals, and asylum
and migration management).
Nonetheless, the relaxing of skilled labour migration pathways is not a uniform trend across the region (or
even within the same country). In some countries, restrictions and barriers have increased, with key
examples below:

 Finland has announced it will reduce immigration numbers and raise the bar for work permits as well as
residency and citizenship applications.
 Despite proposing easier EU Blue Card processes, and faster processing times for highly qualified
applicants, Sweden is seeking to reduce immigration through other avenues. Income requirements for
certain foreign national workers will likely double in November 2023; the government is considering
implementing more stringent requirements for citizenship and permanent residence; and the government
has launched an awareness campaign to discourage migrants from entering.
 As part of its strategy to fund pay-rises for public sector workers, in October 2023, the United Kingdom
increased work and visit visa fees by 15 percent; and study visa fees by 35 percent. The main
immigration health surcharge rate will likely increase to GBP 1,035 (from the current GBP 624), and the
discounted variant (for people under 18, students, and Youth Mobility Schemes participants) will likely
increase to GBP 776 (from the current GBP 470). The surcharge hikes remain subject to parliamentary
approval – but are expected to be implemented by late 2023. Additionally, in early 2024, UK authorities
will increase substantially the fines for employers hiring, and landlords hosting, migrants who lack the
relevant immigration permissions. These changes are part of broader efforts to deter irregular migration.

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 Luxembourg has introduced a tougher (and broader) penalty regime for employing foreign nationals who
lack appropriate work or residency rights. The laws cast a particularly harsh gaze on employers who
engage in exploitative or abusive practices.

Forthcoming German immigration reform

In June 2023, the German Parliament passed a new immigration bill that creates and expands immigration
pathways for skilled workers from non-EU countries. Its provisions will variously come into effect across
November 2023, March 2024, and June 2024. Key highlights include:

 Opportunity Card. A points-based ‘Opportunity Card’ will be created. This will offer to eligible applicants
a one-year renewable residence permit for the purpose of seeking employment in Germany (and will
allow cardholders to work up to 20 hours a week during this period). Relevant criteria will include
education, work experience, language skills, connection to Germany and age.
 More relaxed vocational skill pathways. Work-permit pathways for applicants with vocational
experience will be relaxed, with requirements regarding German language skills and recognition of
educational qualifications being reduced. Furthermore, foreign nationals will be able to undertake any role
for which they are qualified; as opposed to being restricted to roles specifically linked to their formal
education.
 EU Blue Card easier to obtain; more attractive. Information technology and educational professionals
with sufficient vocational experience will be allowed to apply for an EU Blue Card even if they lack formal
education. The bill will also decrease the minimum gross annual salary for the EU Blue Card (a visa
regime that targets skilled workers). Separately, EU Blue Card holders (whose card was issued by other
EU member states) will enjoy greater work mobility rights within Germany.
 Relaxed permanent residency requirements. The period of residence in Germany necessary to qualify
for permanent residence will also be reduced. Skilled workers will be able to acquire permanent
residence after three years (down from four years); while EU Blue Card holders will be able to acquire
permanent residence after 27 months (down from 33 months).
 ‘Western Balkans Regulations’ to continue; quota increased. The ‘Western Balkans Regulations’ will
be extended indefinitely. The program grants nationals of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, the
Republic of Northern Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia access to temporary work visas in Germany,
provided that the applicant has a job offer from a German employer. The annual quota will also increase
from 25,000 to 50,000.
Through attracting foreign talent via reducing immigration barriers for skilled workers, Germany (like other
countries globally) is seeking to address a skilled labour shortage that is slowing economic growth. In June
2023, Germany’s Federal Labour Agency reported labour shortages across one-sixth of surveyed
professions. Several industries experiencing shortages – such as information technology, nursing and
teaching – can be expected to benefit from these policy changes.

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 4.
DIGITISATION AND
DATA-SHARING BETTER
EQUIPS AUTHORITIES
FOR INSPECTIONS AND
ENFORCEMENT

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Governments throughout Europe, as well as the European Union itself, are continuing a determined push
toward greater digitisation and inter-agency data-sharing (both at the national and regional level). This trend
is expected to reduce administrative and bureaucratic burdens and backlogs (at least partially resolving the
current spike in processing times); to create a more user-friendly experience for applicants; and, crucially, to
amplify governments’ compliance and monitoring capacities.

Meanwhile, the adoption of AI in immigration processes by governments worldwide is proving transformative,

offering unprecedented efficiency and precision in tasks traditionally managed by humans. However, in hand
with this, AI-adopting countries have been forced to grapple with issues such as bias, transparency,
accountability and data privacy. At least for the time being, the human element will remain critical at many
stages in the immigration process – be it training, system design, oversight, risk management, complex
matter resolution, or strategy formulation (to list only a few). Often, AI will complement – as opposed to
substitute – the human worker. Successful organisations will be those that can leverage this complementarity
and ensure their talent acquisition policies are geared towards filling the skills gaps emerging amid the AI
revolution.

Countries with online applications systems for their main work permits

Key:

Green: there is an online immigration portal for most procedures

Orange: part of the main immigration process can be submitted electronically (email or other)

Red: solely paper-based immigration process

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 Greater digitisation
– The United Kingdom’s 2021 immigration digitisation program (discussed in-depth below)
remains on track: the application process for European Economic Area nationals and in-country
skilled workers is now digital; an online skilled worker eligibility checker has been launched; and
the digital use of biometric data has expanded, among other developments.
– Germany is making digitisation gains. In mid-2023, the Frankfurt Immigration Office (one of
Germany’s most important immigration offices) launched an online application portal for the
submission of a wide range of immigration applications forms (such as work, residence, family
reunion, and skilled worker applications).
– As an alternative to more traditional methods of serving documents, Irish immigration authorities
can now electronically serve certain important immigration documents (including application
decisions and deportation orders) via email or a digital customer portal.
– Estonia now requires that posted worker notifications are filed via an online self-service portal.
The previous method of filing by e-mail is no longer accepted.
– Luxembourg has established a new online government portal for the filing of certain residence
permit applications (or renewals). It also recently mandated the use of biometric smartcards for
foreign national family members of EU citizens – replacing the old-fashioned ‘paper and photo’
residence cards.
– Several European states are currently actively enforcing departure notification obligations,
requiring employers to notify governments when a foreign national departs a country (for
instance, because an employment relationship has ended). In Germany, such notification is
required within two weeks of an employee either resigning or being notified of their termination. In
the Netherlands, a notification is required within 28 days of a foreign national’s last date of
employment; United Kingdom employers have the same obligation but a shorter duration: only
10 days.
– The European Union’s ‘Schengen Information Systems’ (SIS) – a digital information sharing
service among Schengen states – underwent significant updates in 2023. Among its various
functions (such as broadcasting alerts about a missing person, a stolen car, or a security threat),
the SIS is critical for distributing immigration-related information. The new SIS has been updated
to interoperate with the (still forthcoming) ETIAS and Entry/Exit Systems (EES), and now tracks
return decisions for foreign nationals with no legal right to stay in the EU. It also now includes
new alert categories and biometric information, as well as allowing for preventative alerts (for
instance, children at risk of abduction). Europol, Frontex and national immigration authorities now
have increased access to the system. Cyprus recently became the latest country to join the
system.
 Short-term travel is under a microscope
– The United Kingdom’s Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) is scheduled for a late 2023
progressive rollout for visa-exempt nationals.
– The European Union’s ETIAS for visa-exempt nationals is now scheduled for a 2025 opening
(after suffering further delays); while the EES for visa-exempt and visa nationals is scheduled for
a 2024 commencement. These systems will provide authorities with increased capacity to track

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 short-term travel throughout the region. Furthermore, the systems will allow for inter-agency and
inter-state data-sharing. For instance, the ETIAS and EES will work in unison to digitally monitor
external borders and Schengen compliance.
 Hybrid work and flexible working arrangements closely scrutinised. Businesses should be mindful
of increased scrutiny and regulation of flexible working arrangements. Following the end of pandemic-era
leniencies, authorities have taken steps to regulate and monitor the ‘new normal’ of remote- and hybrid-
working arrangements. Nevertheless, many gaps remain, leading companies and employees to seek
workarounds, and thus opening them up to compliance risks. Key considerations include:

– Regulation of hybrid arrangements. Several countries (the United Kingdom, Malta, Slovakia,
Belarus and Greece) require hybrid-working arrangements to be indicated in any employment
contract associated with an immigration application. Ireland’s notification requirements go one
step further: allowing authorities to inspect home office addresses (provided they get employer
and employee consent). Lastly, Poland’s Labour Inspectorate is conducting a root-and-branch
survey of the remote-working landscape.
– Multilateral social security agreement for regulating cross-border remote workers. In the
absence of specific EU rules, 19 European countries (with Slovenia joining the agreement after
the fact) have signed up to a new framework agreement regarding social security rules for cross-
border remote workers. Under the agreement, employees who work for an employer in one
signatory state but who reside and partially telework in another signatory state can remain
affiliated with the social security system of their employer’s country provided that they spend less
than 50% of their total working time in their country of residence.
– Scrutiny of ‘Employers of Record’ arrangements. Employers of Record (EOR) are third-party
organisations which assume the formal responsibilities for employing a client’s employee while
overseas. Businesses use such arrangements to effectively ‘post’ foreign national employees to
premises in countries where national law precludes such postings or where employers face
difficulties in sponsoring work authorisations. Currently, the Netherlands is the only EU country
to formally regulate and monitor EORs. Nonetheless, additional scrutiny of these arrangements is
expected – which are viewed by some countries as a loophole to remote working arrangements.
– Digital nomad visa updates. The Digital Nomad Visa (DNV) regulatory framework continues to
be formalised and refined, while restrictions on DNVs in the context of the war in Ukraine
continue.
 In July 2023, the Czech Republic introduced a digital nomad program, under which
eligible foreign nationals can obtain visas allowing them to stay in the Czech Republic
while they either telework for their home employer or work as a self-employed freelancer.
 In Montenegro, eligible digital nomads can now apply for either a long-term Digital
Nomad Permit (for up to four years) or a shorter-term D Visa (up to 180 days in a one-
year period).
 In April 2023, Spain increased regulations regarding digital nomads, requiring validation
of degrees (for regulated professions like medicine, dentistry and law) and professional
training (though this is subject to authority discretion).
 Estonia ceased issuing DNVs to Belarussian and Russian citizens in April 2023, joining
countries like Latvia in limiting DNVs in the context of the war in Ukraine.

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The United Kingdom’s five-year ‘digitisation’
programme
In 2021, the UK government presented a five-year ‘digitisation’ program for its post-Brexit immigration
system. Among other things, the programme contemplated:

 The development of online platforms that would allow the electronic submission, storage, and inter-
agency sharing of immigration applications, documents and information (including immigration status, as
well as biometric and security-related data).
 The use of algorithms for automated decision-making for certain types of immigration applications, which
is expected to feature prominently in the functioning of the UK ETA scheme (currently scheduled for a
late 2023 commencement).
 An enhanced user experience for applicants.
 Amplified coordination, distribution and sharing of information and data amongst agencies, improving
immigration and security enforcement outcomes.

Two years on, several proposed measures are now in force, including:

 Application processes for European Economic Area nationals and in-country skilled workers are now fully
digital.
 The online skilled worker eligibility checker has been launched.
 The digital use (and reuse) of biometric data has expanded, with further expansion envisaged.

Other digitisation efforts are close to fruition:

 The pre-travel ETA scheme is scheduled to start in October 2023, and will be gradually scaled up
throughout 2024.
 The sponsor management system is expected to become fully digital by 2025 (with pilot features being
rolled out across 2023 and 2024). The system will be accessible through a single online portal, allowing
sponsors to update their details online while also enabling various government departments (such as
immigration, tax and corporate regulatory bodies) to conduct a range of checks online, many of which will
be automatic.
 Physical biometric data cards are scheduled to be entirely phased out by 2025 in favour of a fully digital
biometric system.

Certainly, there have been teething issues, with general complaints about tech issues. Additionally, broader
anomalies in the immigration system undermine the efficiency dividends of digitisation. For instance, despite
being able to file digitally, in-country dependants still have no right to ask for ‘priority service’ (which would
reduce waiting times from eight weeks to one week), thus subjecting applicants to undue delays. On balance,
though, the United Kingdom’s digitisation programme is moving forward at a sufficient pace.

The increasingly digitised architecture of the UK immigration system is part of broader UK efforts to enhance
compliance with immigration rules as well as improving the monitoring and enforcement of such compliance.
Employers may be understandably wary that such changes would increase their range of compliance
obligations. After all, digitisation gives authorities the power to impose and monitor a wider range of
compliance requirements.

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However, UK authorities currently appear pragmatic in their approach to introducing new compliance
obligations. For instance, in early April 2023, UK guidance was updated that required sponsors to report
changes to their working arrangements, including with respect to remote hybrid working. However, a short
while later, this requirement was overturned. Rather, the authorities have said they would deem it sufficient
for employers to maintain their records ‘on site’; mandatory online reporting would not be necessary. Officials
appear to have accepted that ‘hybrid working’ was not to be viewed with automatic suspicion and was instead
a new norm in working practices. As digitisation continues, it can be expected that UK authorities will
continue their pragmatic approach to the introduction or expansion of compliance obligations.

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 5.
EMERGING TRENDS

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 EU Enlargement. Efforts continue to expand (or join) the European Union. Austria, Slovakia and the
Czech Republic have urged North Macedonia (an official EU candidate since 2005) to pursue the
constitutional reform necessary for it to join the European Union. In mid-2023, Türkiye expressed support
for Sweden’s accension to NATO (though the waters have since been muddied somewhat); in exchange
it may enjoy Swedish support for its EU accession bid (as well as modernisation efforts regarding the EU-
Türkiye Customs Union and visa liberalisation). Separately, in June 2023, the European Enlargement
Commissioner reported that Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia (recent aspirant countries) had made
progress in addressing multiple conditions of entry, but that work remains. Amid the geopolitics of pulling
(or keeping) Balkan states away from Russia’s orbit, Brussels has pledged to extend to western Balkan
states some of the benefits of the EU single market, as well as boosting pre-accession funding. For the
foreseeable future, EU enlargement may continue to be a bargaining chip in the region’s broader
realpolitik.
 Schengen enlargement. The prospects for Romania and Bulgaria’s accession to Schengen in either
late 2023 or 2024 appear strong. Following the late 2022 rebuke of Bucharest and Sofia’s efforts to join
the visa-free travel zone (after vetoes by Austria and the Netherlands), the landscape has shifted. In a
non-binding July 2023 resolution, a firm majority of the European Parliament called on the European
Council to approve Romania and Bulgaria’s Schengen accession by the close of 2023. Further,
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently threw her support behind admission
‘without any further delay’.
 EU/North African countries’ ‘blueprint’ on migration management. As part of efforts to curb irregular
migration, in July 2023, the European Union agreed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with
Tunisia, under which the EU promises to provide considerable financial support for Tunisian border
control initiatives. The deal, however, is broader in scope. It also envisions the European Union providing
general budgetary support to Tunisia (amid high inflation) as well as supporting green-tech and
education initiatives, among other proposals. For years now, Tunisia and other north African states (such
as Libya) have been common departure points for asylum seekers coming to Europe, and this MoU is
being viewed as a potential blueprint for similar arrangements with other countries in the region. In a
similar vein, in July 2023, the European Council approved the so-called ‘Post-Cotonou’ partnership
agreement between the EU and the Organisation of African, Caribbean and Pacific States. Once signed,
the agreement – for which migration and mobility are key priorities – would establish a binding legal
framework regarding the return and readmission of irregular migrants.
 Free trade deals aplenty, with potential immigration implications. There continues to be strong (if at
times faltering) movement towards a raft of free trade agreements. Such arrangements may have
immigration implications.
– The European Union and New Zealand’s recently signed free trade agreement contains
commitments to facilitate the movement of natural persons for business purposes. That said, the
agreement must still be sent to the European Parliament for its consent and must still be ratified
by New Zealand, and even after these procedural hurdles are overcome the practical implications
may be negligible (as the mobility provisions in the agreement may not be a priority for national
authorities).
– The South American trade bloc Mercosur continues free trade discussions with the EU; while
similar talks between Australia and the EU have faced considerable hurdles (agriculture remains
a key sticking point).
– The United Kingdom’s free trade agreements with Australia and New Zealand each came into
effect in May 2023. The UK-Australia FTA (Free Trade Agreement) facilitates business visitor

Regional Trends Report – Europe 19

 travel and relaxes both work visa arrangements for people under 35 years of age and labour
market testing requirements; while the New Zealand equivalent seeks to facilitate business visitor
travel. Australia and the United Kingdom will be relaxing their mutual youth mobility scheme,
allowing applicants to be older and stay longer.
– Separately, the United Kingdom’s trade talks with the United States appear halted, with a full-
fledged agreement no longer a priority between the parties.
 Digital nomad visas – not quite a panacea? In a post-COVID environment, DNVs promised an exciting
visa alternative. Countries such as Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Montenegro, Portugal, and
Spain grew their DNV frameworks in a bid to attract the spending capital of comparatively wealthy
remote workers. Yet, the process has been fraught. Local populations – facing crippling gentrification –
are pushing back. Many DNV regimes require applicants to earn significantly above local wages, causing
a steep increase in real estate prices as digital nomads crowd out the local short-term rental market
(already tight amid foreign investment and informal tourism rental arrangements). General inflationary
pressures do not help. Furthermore, locals also chafe against the perceived loss of their city’s character.
Amid this discontent and doubt about economic benefits, the previous steep rise of DNV regimes may be
slowing (though not stopping). There also remain questions about the rate of formal uptake of DNVs, as
opposed to digital nomads working illegally under a tourism visa or visa-waiver arrangement. For
instance, between the opening of its DNV program (in late 2022) and March 2023, Portugal – a digital
nomad poster child – only issued 550 remote work visas; in Estonia, 191 long-stay remote work visas
were issued in 2022. In all, although DNVs are likely here to stay, their lustre may be a little worn.

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 6.
FLASHPOINTS

Regional Trends Report – Europe 21

Developing Crises
 Belarus: Belarus has experienced political unrest over the past few years, with mass demonstrations in
2020-2021. Belarus is currently supporting Russia in the Ukraine war, which has given rise to sanctions
similar to – but milder than – those imposed on Russia.
 Moldova: The pro-European Union government of Moldova resigned in early February 2023. Moldova’s
Transnistria region has become a breakaway territory, with pro-Russian sentiments and a Russian
military presence.
 Serbia and Kosovo: Serbia does not recognise Kosovo's independence (unilaterally declared in 2008),
instead considering it a breakaway province. Relations remain tense.
 Europe (all): Issues with consular and immigration officials’ workloads and Schengen visa appointment
availability.

Potential Crises
 Türkiye: Kurdish population in the east; armed tensions occasionally flare up.
 Abkhazia (Georgia); South Ossetia (Georgia): Unrecognized breakaway regions with occasional
armed conflict.
 Gibraltar: post-Brexit passports issue, with the United Kingdom and Spain both seeking jurisdiction over
passport control.

To access worldwide trends and projections, order the Worldwide Immigration Trends Report here.

Regional Trends Report – Europe 22

APPENDIX
Fragomen Client Alerts – see all alerts here

Immigration Policy Reform

 Germany to introduce ‘green card’, DW (August 9, 2022), available at https://www.dw.com/en/germany-
to-introduce-green-card-to-bolster-workforce/a-63046971

 Germany is planning to introduce points-based ‘green cards’, The Economic Times (September 9,
2022), available at https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/migrate/germany-is-planning-to-introduce-
points-based-green-cards/articleshow/94089751.cms?from=mdr

 Germany reports labor shortage in one-sixth of professions, AP News (June 2, 2023), available at
https://apnews.com/article/germany-labor-shortages-brazil-8be4a0cd14b9dcd55a2f9ebf4d1d0cae

 Government measures to strengthen Swedish citizenship, Government Offices of Sweden (June 2,

2023), available at https://www.government.se/articles/2023/06/government-measures-to-strengthen-
swedish-citizenship/

 Inquiry report on knowledge requirements for a permanent residence permit presented, Government
Offices of Sweden (May 30, 2023), available at https://www.government.se/press-releases/2023/05/inquiry-
report-on-knowledge-requirements-for-a-permanent-residence-permit-presented/

 Swedish government to double income requirement for immigrants, Euractiv (May 5, 2023), available
at https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/swedish-government-to-double-income-requirement-for-
immigrants/

 New Plan for Immigration: legal migration and border control strategy statement 2021 (accessible
web version), UK Government (May 24, 2021), available at
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/new-plan-for-immigration-legal-migration-and-border-
control/new-plan-for-immigration-legal-migration-and-border-control-strategy-statement-accessible-web-
version

 Italy to grant work permits to 425k non-EU workers, The Telegraph (July 8, 2023), available at
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/08/italy-grants-work-permits-425k-non-eu-migrant-workers/

 What's in the French government's new immigration bill?, Le Monde (February 1, 2023), available at
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/02/01/what-s-in-the-french-government-s-new-immigration-
bill_6014005_7.html

 Finland's incoming government to reduce immigration, Reuters (June 16, 2023), available at
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finlands-incoming-government-reduce-immigration-2023-06-16/

 Finland's new government announces 'paradigm shift' with immigration crackdown, France 24 (June
16, 2023), available at https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230616-finland-s-new-government-
announces-paradigm-shift-to-clamp-down-on-immigration

 ETIAS: US nationals will need a visa to travel to Europe, The Independent (July 27, 2023) available at
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/etias-visa-travel-europe-2024-b2382338.html

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European Elections
 Spain faces uncertain political future after election deadlock, Financial Times (July 24, 2023), available
at https://www.ft.com/content/4ed90f29-5191-4197-a39b-13982eec86c9

 Spain election: Conservative boss Feijóo’s numbers don’t add up, Politico (July 26, 2023), available at
https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-election-alberto-nunez-feijoo-popular-party/

 Door opens for Sánchez as Spanish lawmakers reject Feijóo’s PM bid again, Politico (September 29,
2023), available at https://www.politico.eu/article/spanish-lawmakers-reject-alberto-nunez-feijoo-second-bid-
become-pm-election-pedro-sanchez/

 Spain's conservatives fail to form government, clearing way for Socialists, Reuters (September 29,
2023), available at https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spains-conservative-leader-feijoo-assumes-
defeat-premiership-bid-2023-09-29/

 Europe swings right — and reshapes the EU, Politico (June 30, 2023), available at
https://www.politico.eu/article/far-right-giorgia-meloni-europe-swings-right-and-reshapes-the-eu/

 Standard Eurobarometer 99 - Spring 2023, Eurobarometer (July 2023), available at

https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/3052

 Why Belgium may be about to break up, Politico (July 21, 2023), available at
https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-break-up-flanders-wallonia-tom-van-grieken-vlaams-belang-far-right/

 Polish politicians attack migrants for electoral gain, Politico (July 9, 2023), available at
https://www.politico.eu/article/polish-politicians-donald-tusk-attack-migrants-for-electoral-gain/

 Mark Rutte era comes to an end as Dutch elections loom, Politico (July 10, 2023), available at
https://www.politico.eu/article/mark-rutte-netherlands-vvd-era-comes-to-an-end-as-he-quits-politics/

 Slovakia PM quits and is replaced by caretaker as political crisis deepens, The Guardian (May 8,
2023) available at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/08/slovakia-pm-quits-replaced-caretaker-
political-crisis-deepens

 Slovakia elections: Populist party wins vote but needs allies for coalition, BBC News (October 1,
2023) available at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66972984

 Slovakia’s populist party opposed to Ukraine aid wins vote, Al Jazeera (October 1, 2023) available at
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/1/pro-russia-party-claims-victory-in-slovakia-election

 Slovakia's Fico: border checks with Hungary a priority for new government, Reuters (October 1, 2023)
available at https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/slovakias-fico-border-checks-with-hungary-priority-new-
government-2023-10-01/

 Europe chart of the week, Economist Intelligence Unit (June 9, 2023) available at
https://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=583310441&Country=Spain&topic=Politics&subtopic=Fo_1

 Why Belgium may be about to break up, Politico (July 21, 2023) https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-
break-up-flanders-wallonia-tom-van-grieken-vlaams-belang-far-
right/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=alert&utm_campaign=Why%20Belgium%20may%20be%20about%
20to%20break%20up

Regional Trends Report – Europe 24

Emerging Trends
 Austria, Slovakia, Czech Republic push for North Macedonia EU accession, Euractiv (July 12, 2023),
available at https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/austria-slovakia-czech-republic-push-for-north-
macedonia-eu-accession/

 Australian PM keen to ink EU free trade agreement 'as soon as possible', Reuters (September 10,
2023), available at https://www.reuters.com/world/australian-pm-keen-ink-eu-free-trade-agreement-as-soon-
possible-2023-09-10/

 How the EU can enlarge, Politico (July 24, 2023), available at https://www.politico.eu/article/european-
union-membership-enlargement-turkey-albania-north-macedonia-montenegro-ukraine-moldova/

 Brussels rejects Erdoğan's demand: NATO membership and EU accession are two 'separate'
processes, EuroNews (July 10, 2023) available at https://www.euronews.com/my-
europe/2023/07/10/brussels-rejects-erdogans-offer-eu-accession-and-nato-membership-are-two-separate-
processe

 Erdogan links Sweden's NATO membership to Turkey's EU accession, Reuters (July 10, 2023),
available at https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/erdogan-links-swedens-nato-membership-turkeys-eu-
accession-2023-07-10/

 Why Turkey changed its stance on Sweden’s NATO membership, Al Jazeera (July 11, 2023), available
at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/11/why-turkey-changed-its-stance-on-swedens-nato-
membership-2

 Turkey agrees to support Sweden’s Nato application, The Guardian (July 10, 2023), available at
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/10/turkey-sweden-nato-application-proceed-erdogan

 Turkey urges Sweden to act over terrorism for NATO membership support, Reuters (July 21, 2023),
available at https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-urges-sweden-act-over-terrorism-nato-membership-
support-2023-07-21/

 Sweden hails historic step as Turkey backs NATO bid, BBC News (July 11, 2023), available at
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66162513

 Sweden's NATO accession and Turkey's bid to buy F-16 jets should be kept separate, Erdogan says,
Reuters (September 10, 2023), available at https://www.reuters.com/world/swedens-nato-accession-
turkeys-bid-buy-f-16-jets-should-be-kept-separate-erdogan-2023-09-10/

 EU spells out ‘homework’ for Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia – and for itself, Euractiv (June 22, 2023),
available at https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement-neighbourhood/news/eu-spells-out-homework-
for-ukraine-moldova-georgia-and-for-itself/

 Brussels to extend EU single market benefits to western Balkans, Financial Times (May 31, 2023),
available at https://www.ft.com/content/ae7f5bf4-a0ff-4a6d-8ab0-126419dac538

 Putin has revived the EU’s dreams of enlargement, Financial Times (June 8, 2023), available at
https://www.ft.com/content/ef6d8575-149a-4f9f-a450-30e7da9d706b

 Mémorandum d'entente sur un partenariat stratégique et global entre l'Union européenne et la

Tunisie, European Commission (July 16, 2023), available at
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_3887

Regional Trends Report – Europe 25

  EU finalizes migrant deal with Tunisia, Politico (July 16, 2023) available at
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-migration-deal-tunisia-migrants-africa-european-commission/

 Von der Leyen wants Bulgaria, Romania in Schengen ASAP, Politico (September 13, 2023) available at
https://www.politico.eu/article/von-der-leyen-bulgaria-and-romania-in-schengen-without-any-further-delay/

 Tunisia-EU migration: Deal signed to strengthen borders, BBC News (July 17, 2023), available at
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66222864

 Tunisia pact a ‘blueprint’ for new ‘cash for migrant’ deals, says EU chief, Euractiv (June 28, 2023),
available at https://www.euractiv.com/section/migration/news/tunisia-pact-a-blueprint-for-new-cash-for-
migrant-deals-says-eu-chief/

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

www.fragomen.com

Regional Trends Report – Europe 27