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Watch: Temperatures low in Iowa, but the excitement and stakes are high

By Anthony Zurcher
North America correspondent in Des Moines, Iowa

After months of campaigning, Republican voters - or at least a few

hundred thousand in the Midwestern state of Iowa - will finally have an
opportunity to weigh in on who their party's 2024 presidential nominee
They were Israel's eyes on the
should be.
border - their warnings went
The field has winnowed considerably over recent months, but one thing has unheard
remained constant. Former president Donald Trump continues to tower over
his party's future, despite the best efforts of his rivals.

That's why so much of the drama in the build-up to the Iowa caucuses has been
focused on snow accumulations and how far the wind chill will drop, rather
than who may emerge victorious.

But there are still key storylines that will develop as the Monday night's results
come in.

Drone video shows Gaza

Trump's knockout punch destruction after 100 days of
war

Unless there is a dramatic polling error, Donald Trump is going to win the Iowa
caucuses.

He has broad and enthusiastic support among Republicans voters in the state
and a ground organisation that is significantly more sophisticated than the
shoestring team that delivered a second-place finish behind Texas Senator Ted
Cruz in 2016.

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What the former president and his team are looking for in the state is more
than just a win. They want the kind of crushing victory that they hope removes
all doubt that Mr Trump will be the party's nominee at the Republican national
Denmark's cool, Scandi
convention this July.
proclamation felt familiar

Temperatures low, but caucus

excitement is high in Iowa

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Five Republican storylines to

watch for in Iowa

If he can run up the score in Iowa - winning with more the 50% of the vote, for
instance - it could blunt Nikki Haley's momentum heading into New
Hampshire, the second state to vote, and mortally wound Ron DeSantis's
campaign.

A true knockout punch may not be possible, as Iowa historically has only
reduced the field, not crowned the ultimate nominee. But with Mr Trump Jodie Comer: I was terrified
essentially campaigning as an incumbent president, denying that he was even acting with 15 babies
defeated in 2020, this is no typical year.

A coveted second place Elsewhere on the BBC

If Mr Trump's dominating poll position proves to be an accurate reflection of

Iowa Republican voter mood, the real battle in the state is for second place.

Last Wednesday's acrimonious two-person debate between Florida Governor

Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley put the high stakes here
in stark relief. If one of these two opens some daylight between the other in the
final Iowa results, it could elevate that candidate as the top alternative to Mr
Trump in the contests to come.
The playground of
billionaires...
What is it really like in the boom town of
Mumbai?

iPlayer

The island that escaped the Ice

Age
EUROPEAN PRESS AGENCY
Iowa voter tearful listening to Haley speak Dr Tori Herridge investigates the
mysteries behind the planted plants on
the isle of Rum
A close finish does neither any good, essentially boosting the divide-and-
conquer strategy that helped Mr Trump win the nomination in 2016 and would Sounds
give him a glide path to victory this time around.

Even if one candidate banks a comfortable runner-up finish in Iowa, there's no

guarantee that it will translate into future success and an opportunity to catch
the former president. A slim chance is better than no chance at all, however.

DeSantis's last stand

Ms Haley and Mr DeSantis may be battling for second place, but their
Contenders ready? Gladiators
situations are far from identical.
is back!
New Hampshire, the next state on the Republican calendar, is much more Get set for all the classic, action-packed
fertile electoral ground for Ms Haley, who is backed by its governor and is battles alongside new events and 16
mighty Gladiators
showing strength among its large percentage of college-educated voters and
political independents. iPlayer

Recent polls there have shown her cutting Mr Trump's lead to near single
digits, well ahead of the Florida governor.

Mr DeSantis, on the other hand, has demonstrated little ability to connect with
voters in New Hampshire. Consequently, his campaign is much more reliant on
a positive showing in Iowa, where he has built an extensive grassroots
operation and benefited from key endorsements from the state's governor and
leaders in its evangelical community.

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1 Everton and Forest

charged with financial
breaches
If he stumbles despite these advantages, his campaign may sink beneath the
waves in New Hampshire. Not that his team is admitting as much. Sport

"This campaign is built for the long-haul," said DeSantis campaign spokesman

2
Andrew Romeo. "We hope Donald Trump is ready for a long, scrappy Arctic blast brings
campaign." snow and ice to UK
Those are tough words, but it's unlikely that Mr DeSantis would have the
money and momentum to back them up if he flops in Iowa.

3 Fans call for Eriksson

to achieve Liverpool
'dream'
A winter X factor
The Iowa caucus format has always been a test of campaign organisational
skill and supporter enthusiasm, given the time commitment required of
participants. Add in punishing cold and icy roads, and it is even more likely that
4 New train strike dates
announced by drivers'
union
the caucus winner will be the candidate who has the most dedicated
supporters.

That may be Mr Trump, whose loyal fans have been known to brave all variety
of conditions and wait in lengthy queues - some overnight - to attend their 5 Woman killed, 17 hurt
in Israel car-ramming
man's rallies. attack

Or maybe it's Mr DeSantis and his play for Iowa evangelical voters, who are

6
among the most dedicated caucus participants. Two men jailed for
murdering schoolgirl in
1996
GETTY IMAGES
Queuing in the snow for a Trump event in Indianola, Iowa

Perhaps Ms Haley will benefit, as her college-educated supporters tend to live 7 Home Office to ban
Hizb ut-Tahrir as terror
in Iowa's metropolitan areas, where roads may be clearer of ice and caucus group
sites closer. Republican voters who adamantly oppose Trump may also be
more motivated to face the elements on Monday night. And if they do, polls
suggest they could break her way.

Iowa is no stranger to harsh winter weather, but this particularly frigid

8 Police 'left children at
mercy of grooming
gangs'
environment has injected a measure of unpredictability in what has otherwise
been a fairly stable run-up to the caucus night and made meteorological
forecasters as prized as political pundits for the past few days.

"Any pollster who tells you they know what turnout will be on Monday night
9 They were Israel's
'eyes on the border' -
given the historic weather conditions isn't telling the truth," the DeSantis their warnings went
campaign wrote in a memo to donors and supporters obtained by CBS News. unheard

Every candidate not named Donald Trump is heading into Monday night

10 Ukraine
hoping this is true. says it shot
down Russian spy
plane
Yes, Asa Hutchinson is still running
With former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie out, Vivek Ramaswamy and
Asa Hutchinson are the only two other candidates with enough support to
register even a blip in Iowa.

It's hard to imagine either finding any meaningful success in the state at this
point - or, for that matter, in any of the states to come. But they can still hope
for a miracle. Monday night may end up being their first real dose of harsh
reality.

Related Topics

Nikki Haley Iowa Donald Trump US politics

United States Ron DeSantis