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Lecture 4
The Macroeconomic
Environment
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v Third, the economic (and, for that matter, political) influence of industry and
commerce can be considerable and this ensures that business organisations –
both individually and collectively – usually constitute one of the chief pressure
groups in democratic states.
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Economic Systems
The concept of economic scarcity
• Like politics, the term ‘economic’ tends to be used in a variety of ways and
contexts to describe certain aspects of human behaviour, ranging from activities
such as producing, distributing and consuming, to the idea of frugality in the use
of a resource (e.g. being ‘economical’ with the truth).
• Modern definitions stress how such behaviour, and the institutions in which it
takes place (e.g. households, firms, governments, banks), are concerned with the
satisfaction of human needs and wants through the transformation of resources
into goods and services which are consumed by society. These processes are said
to take place under conditions of economic scarcity.
Economic Systems
The concept of economic Scarcity, Choice and Opportunity cost
• The economist’s idea of ‘scarcity’ centres on the relationship between a society’s needs
and wants and the resources available to satisfy them, the argument being that whereas
needs and wants tend to be unlimited, the resources that can be used to meet those
needs and wants are finite such that no society at any time has the capacity to provide for
all its actual or potential requirements.
• This being the case, ‘choices’ have to be made by both individuals and society concerning
priorities in the use of resources, and every choice inevitably involves a ‘sacrifice’ (i.e.
forgoing an alternative).
• Economists describe this sacrifice as the opportunity cost or real cost of the decision that
is taken (e.g. every pound spent on the health service is a pound not spent on some other
public service) and it is one faced by individuals, organisations (including firms),
governments and society alike
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Economic Systems
The concept of economic Scarcity, Choice and Opportunity cost
From a societal point of view the existence of economic scarcity poses three serious
problems concerning the use of resources:
1. What to use the available resources for. That is, what goods and services
should be produced (or not produced) with the resources (sometimes
described as the ‘guns v. butter’ argument)?
2. How best to use those resources. For example, in what combinations, using
what techniques and what methods?
3. How best to distribute the goods and services produced with them. That is,
who gets what, how much and on what basis?
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Economic Systems
The concept of economic Scarcity, Choice and Opportunity cost
One or other main approach to resource allocation tends to predominate and this
allows analytical distinctions to be made between different types of economic
system.
Understanding this distinction is fundamental to an examination of the way in
which business is conducted and represents the foundation on which much of the
subsequent analysis is built.
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Economic Systems
The Centrally Planned Economy
In this type of economic system –most of the key decisions on production are taken
by a central planning authority, normally the state and its agencies. Under this, the
state:
v owns and/or controls the main economic resources,
v establishes priorities in the use of those resources;
v sets output targets for businesses
v directs resources in an effort to achieve these predetermined targets; and
v seeks to coordinate production in such a way as to ensure consistency
between output and input demands.
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Economic Systems
The Centrally Planned Economy
The fact that an economy is centrally planned does not necessarily imply that all
economic decisions are taken at central level; in many cases decision-making may
be devolved to subordinate agencies, including local committees and enterprises.
Ultimately, however, these agencies are responsible to the centre and it is the latter
which retains overall control of the economy and directs the use of scarce
productive resources.
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Economic Systems
The Centrally Planned Economy
Under such a plan, the state planners establish annual output targets for each
sector of the economy and for each enterprise within the sector, identify the inputs
of materials, labour and capital needed to achieve the set targets and allocate
resources accordingly.
Even in the most centralised of economies, state planning does not normally extend
to telling individuals what they must buy in shops or how to use their labour,
although an element of state direction at times may exist.
Instead, it tends to condition what is available for purchase and the prices at which
exchange takes place, and both of these are essentially the outcome of political
choices, rather than a reflection of consumer demands.
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Economic Systems
The Centrally Planned Economy
• Given such an environment, the traditional entrepreneurial skills of efficient
resource management, price setting and risk taking have little, if any, scope for
development and managers behave essentially as technicians and bureaucrats,
administering decisions largely made elsewhere. Firms, in effect, are mainly
servants of the state and their activities are conditioned by social and political
considerations, rather than by the needs of the market
• Accordingly, businesses and their employees are not fully sensitised to the needs
of the consumer and as a result quality and choice (where they exist) may suffer,
particularly where incentives to improved efficiency and performance are
negligible.
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Economic Systems
The Free-Market Economy
• The free-market economy (or capitalist economy) stands in direct contrast to the
centrally planned system. Whereas in the latter the state controls most economic
decisions, in the former the key economic agencies are private individuals
(sometimes called ‘households’) and firms, and these interact in free markets,
through a system of prices, to determine the allocation of resources.
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Economic Systems
The Free-Market Economy
The key features of this type of economic system are as follows:
v Resources are in private ownership and the individuals owning them are free
to use them as they wish.
v Firms, make decisions on production, free from state interference.
v Decisions on resource allocation are the result of a decentralised system of
markets and prices, in which the decisions of millions of consumers and
hundreds of thousands of firms are automatically coordinated.
v The consumer is deemed to be sovereign, dictating the pattern of supply and
hence the pattern of resource allocation.
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Economic Systems
The Free-Market Economy
Individuals are owners of resources (e.g.
labour) and consumers of products; firms
are users of resources and producers of
products.
What products are produced – and hence
how resources are used – depends on
consumers, who indicate their demands
by purchasing or not purchasing, and this
acts as a signal to producers to acquire
the resources necessary to meet the
preferences of consumers. 17
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Economic Systems
The Free-Market Economy
A change in consumer demands will cause an automatic reallocation of resources as
firms respond to the new market conditions. Competition allows producers seeking
to gain or retain customers to guarantee that resources are used efficiently and to
ensure the most appropriate production methods (i.e. how to produce).
The distribution of output is also determined by market forces. Individuals supplying
a resource (e.g. their own labour) receive an income (i.e. a price) from the firms
using that resource and this allows them to purchase goods and services in the
markets for products, which in turn provides an income for firms that can be spent
on the purchase of further resources.
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Economic Systems
The Free-Market Economy
In practice, of course, no economy operates entirely in the manner suggested
above; after all, firms are influenced by costs and supply decisions as well as by
demand and generally seek to shape that demand, as well as simply responding to
it.
Nor for that matter is a market-based economy devoid of government involvement
in the process of resource allocation, as evidenced by the existence of a public
sector responsible for substantial levels of consumption and output and for helping
to shape the conditions under which the private sector operates.
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Economic Systems
Economies in Transition: The Mixed Economy
Most of the world’s economies operate under a predominantly market-based
system and the centrally planned economy in its original form is now largely a rare
phenomenon. Three decades of reform have seen the old planned systems in
Eastern Europe and else- where gradually giving way to the march of free
enterprise, with some former communist states
For states anxious to move from an entrenched system of state planning to a
market- based economic system, the obstacles can be formidable and can help to
slow down the progress of economic (and political) reform.
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Economic Systems
The Mixed Economy
Most of the world’s economies operate under a predominantly market-based
system and the centrally planned economy in its original form is now largely a rare
phenomenon. Three decades of reform have seen the old planned systems in
Eastern Europe and else- where gradually giving way to the march of free
enterprise, with some former communist states
For states anxious to move from an entrenched system of state planning to a
market- based economic system, the obstacles can be formidable and can help to
slow down the progress of economic (and political) reform.
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Economic Systems
The Mixed Economy
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Economic Systems
The Mixed Economy
Political systems can be characterised as ranging from democratic to authoritarian,
depending on the degree of public involvement in decision-making processes.
Similarly, economic systems can be seen to range from free- market to planned,
according to the level of state intervention in the process of resource allocation.
This two-dimensional model thus provides for four major combinations of politico-
economic systems, ranging from democratic–free-market on the one hand
(quadrant 1) to authoritarian–planned on the other (quadrant 3).
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Economic Systems
The Mixed Economy
In applying this model to specific cases, it is clear that free-market approaches to
resource allocation have predominantly been associated with democratic states.
Democracy, after all, includes the notion of individuals being able to express their
preferences through the ballot box and having the opportunity to replace one
government with another at periodic intervals. In free markets, similar processes
are at work, with individuals effectively ‘voting’ for goods and services through the
price system and their expressed preferences being reflected in the pattern of
resource allocation.
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Economic Systems
The Mixed Economy
A link between authoritarian regimes and planned economic systems can equally be
rationalised, in that government control over the political system is considerably
facilitated if it also directs the economy through the ownership and/or control of the
means of production, distribution and exchange.
v In effect, the relative absence of democratic mechanisms, such as free elections
and choice between alternative forms of government, is echoed in the economic
sphere by the inability of individuals to exercise any real influence over resource
allocation.
v At the extreme, this could involve a government ban on any forms of free
enterprise and total government control of the pattern of output and consumption
in an economy which is devoid of effective consumer sovereignty.
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The Macroeconomy
Levels of Analysis
As indicated above, economics is concerned with the study of how society deals with
the problem of scarcity and the resultant problems of what to produce, how to
produce and how to distribute.
Within this broad framework the economist typically distinguishes between two
types of analysis:
1. Microeconomic analysis, which is concerned with the study of economic
decision- taking by both individuals and firms.
2. Macroeconomic analysis, which is concerned with interactions in the
economy as a whole (i.e. with economic aggregates).
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The Macroeconomy
The Flows of Economic Activity
Economic activity can be portrayed as a flow of economic resources into firms (i.e.
productive organisations) which are used to produce output for consumption, and a
corresponding flow of payments from firms to the providers of those resources who
use them primarily to purchase the goods and services produced.
These flows of resources, production, income and expenditure accordingly represent
the fundamental activities of an economy at work.
Figure 5.3 illustrates the flow of resources and of goods and services in the economy
– what economists describe as real flows.
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The Macroeconomy
The Flows of Economic Activity
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The Macroeconomy
The Flows of Economic Activity
In effect, firms use economic resources to produce goods and services, which are
consumed by private individuals (private domestic consumption) or government
consumption or by overseas purchasers (foreign consumption) or by other firms
(capital formation).
This consumption gives rise to a flow of expenditures that represents an income for
firms, which they use to purchase further resources in order to produce further
output for consumption.
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The Macroeconomy
The Income Flows in the Economy
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The Macroeconomy
The Flows of Economic Activity
The interrelationship between income flows and real flows can be seen by
combining the two figures into one, which for the sake of simplification assumes
only two groups operate in the economy: firms as producers and users of
resources; and private individuals as consumers and providers of those resources
(see Figure 5.5).
Real flows are shown by the arrows moving in an anti-clockwise direction, income
flows by the arrows flowing in a clockwise direction
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The Macroeconomy
The Flows of Economic Activity
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The Macroeconomy
The Flows of Economic Activity
From the point of view of firms, it is clear from the model that their fortunes are
intimately connected with the spending decisions of households and any changes in
the level of spending can have repercussions for business activity at the micro as
well as at the macro level.
In a recession, an overall fall in demand can cause some businesses to close down
while others experience a reduction in turnover and may be forced to make some
staff redundant and/or delay investment decisions.
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The Macroeconomy
The Flows of Economic Activity
As unemployment grows and investment is postponed or cancelled, demand may
fall further and this will have a negative impact on many businesses. Once the
economy gradually recovers and business confidence returns, many firms generally
find the order book improves and this can have a positive effect on investment and
employment as well as on turnover and profits.
The question then is: what can cause such variations in the overall level of spending
in the economy? In order to gain a clearer view of how the economy works and why
changes occur over time, it is necessary to refine the basic model by incorporating a
number of other key variables – including other forms of consumption – that
influence economic activity. These variables – notably savings, investment,
government spending and taxation, overseas trade – are discussed below
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The Macroeconomy
The Changes in Economic Activity
The level of spending by consumers on goods and services produced by indigenous
firms is influenced by a variety of factors. For a start, most households pay tax on
income earned, which has the effect of reducing the level of income available for
consumption.
Added to this, some consumers prefer to save (i.e. not spend) a proportion of their
income or to spend it on imported products, both of which mean that the income
of domestic firms is less than it would have been had the income been spent with
them.
Circumstances such as these represent what economists call a leakage (or
withdrawal) from the circular flow of income and help to explain why the revenue
of businesses can fluctuate over time (see Figure 5.6).
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The Macroeconomy
The Changes in Economic Activity
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The Macroeconomy
The Changes in Economic Activity
At the same time as such ‘leakages’ are occurring, additional forms of spending in
the economy are helping to boost the potential income of domestic firms. Savings
by some consumers may be borrowed by firms to spend on investment in capital
equipment or plant or premises (known as investment spending) and this generates
income for firms producing capital goods.
Similarly, governments use taxation to spend on the provision of public goods and
services (public or government expenditure) and overseas buyers purchase
products produced by indigenous firms (export spending). Together, these
additional forms of spending represent an injection of income into the circular flow
(see Figure 5.7).
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The Macroeconomy
The Changes in Economic Activity
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Within this equation, consumer spending (C) is regarded as by far the most
important factor in determining the level of total demand.
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The Macroeconomy
Controlling Inflation
Inflation is usually defined as an upward and persistent movement in the general
level of prices over a given period of time; it can also be characterised as a fall in
the value of money. For governments of all political complexions, reducing such
movements to a minimum is seen as a primary economic objective
Monitoring trends in periodic price movements tends to take a number of forms.
These are included:
1. The use of a Retail Price Index (RPI), which measures how an average family’s
spending on goods and services is affected by price changes. The RPI has
traditionally been the measure used for headline inflation.
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The Macroeconomy
Controlling Inflation....
2 An examination of the underlying rate of inflation.
3 Measuring factory gate prices, to indicate likely future changes in consumer
prices.
4 Comparing domestic inflation rates with those of the UK’s chief overseas
competitors, as an indication of the international competitiveness of UK firms.
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The Macroeconomy
Economic Growth
Growth is an objective shared by governments and organisations alike. For
governments, the aim is usually to achieve steady and sustained levels of non-
inflationary growth, preferably led by exports (i.e. export-led growth), with growth
being indicated by annual increases in real national income or gross domestic
product (where ‘real’ = allowing for inflation and ‘gross domestic product (GDP)’ =
the economy’s annual output of goods and services measured in monetary terms).
To compensate for changes in the size of the population, growth rates tend to be
expressed in terms of real national income per capita (i.e. real GDP divided by
population).
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The Macroeconomy
Economic Growth
Exactly what constitutes desirable levels of growth is difficult to say, except in very
broad terms. If given a choice, governments would basically prefer:
• steady levels of real growth (e.g. 3–4 per cent p.a.), rather than annual
increases in output which vary widely over the business cycle;
• growth rates higher than those of one’s chief competitors; and
• growth based on investment in technology and on increased export sales,
rather than on excessive government spending or current consumption.
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The Macroeconomy
Economic Growth
From a business point of view, the fact that increases in output are related to
increases in consumption suggests that economic growth is good for business
prospects and hence for investment and employment, and by and large this is
the case.
The rising living standards normally associated with such growth may, however,
encourage increased consumption of imported goods and services at the
expense of indigenous producers, to a point where some domestic firms are
forced out of business and the economy’s manufacturing base becomes
significantly reduced (often called deindustrialisation).
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The Macroeconomy
Reducing Unemployment
In most democratic states the goal of full employment is no longer part of the
political agenda; instead government pronouncements on employment tend to
focus on job creation and maintenance and on developing the skills appropriate to
future demands.
The consensus seems to be that in technologically advanced market-based
economies, some unemployment is inevitable and the basic aim should be to
reduce unemployment to a level that is both politically and socially acceptable.
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The Macroeconomy
Reducing Unemployment
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The Macroeconomy
A favourable Balance of Payments
• A country’s balance of payments is essentially the net balance of credits
(earnings) and debits (payments) arising from its international trade over a given
period. Where credits exceed debits, a balance-of-payments surplus exists, the
opposite being described as a deficit. Understandably, governments tend to
prefer either equilibrium in the balance of payments, or surpluses rather than
deficits.
• For a government facing persistent balance-of-payments deficits, a sustained
reduction in the size of the deficit may also be regarded as signifying a
‘favourable’ balance-of-payments situation.
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The Macroeconomy
Controlling Public Borrowing
Governments raise large amounts of revenue annually, mainly through taxation, and use
this income to spend on a wide variety of public goods and services (see below). Where
annual revenue exceeds government spending, a budget surplus occurs and the excess is
often used to repay past debt.
• The accumulated debt of past and present governments represents a country’s national
debt.
• Where governments face annual budget deficits rather than budget surpluses, they are
said to have a ‘public sector borrowing requirement
• While such deficits are not inevitably a problem, in the same way that a small personal
overdraft is not necessarily critical for an individual, large-scale and persistent deficits
are generally seen as a sign of an economy facing current and future difficulties which
require urgent government action.
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The Macroeconomy
A Stable Exchange Rate
• A country’s currency has two values: an internal value and an external value.
Internally, its value is expressed in terms of the goods and services it can buy and
hence it is affected by changes in domestic prices. Externally, its value is
expressed as an exchange rate, which governs how much of another country’s
currency it can purchase (e.g. UGX 3700 = 12 or £1 = €1.20).
• Since foreign trade normally involves an exchange of currencies, fluctuations in
the external value of a currency will influence the price of imports and exports
and hence can affect the trading prospects for business, as well as a country’s
balance of payments and its rate of inflation
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The Macroeconomy
A Stable Exchange Rate
On the whole, governments and businesses involved in international trade tend to
prefer exchange rates to remain relatively stable, because of the greater degree of
certainty this brings to the trading environment; it also tends to make overseas
investors more confident that their funds are likely to hold their value.
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