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Financial Engineering
Part 1
PRICING/HEDGING DERIVATIVES WITH TREES
Enrico Biffis
AGENDA
1 Overview
2 One period
3 Two periods
4 Extensions
AGENDA
1 Overview
2 One period
3 Two periods
4 Extensions
Overview
AGENDA
1 Overview
2 One period
3 Two periods
4 Extensions
The simplest possible model: one-period (two dates: 0 and 1), binomial tree.
Money market account yielding r > 0.
Stock with current price S0 , and terminal random price S1 .
Randomness is described by two outcomes, ‘up’ and ‘down’. Think of coin
flipping and sates of the world H (Head) and T (Tail), so that
S1 (H) = uS0 in state H, and S1 (T ) = dS0 in state T , for u > d. The coin
may well be biased: we assume the ‘up’ probability to be p ∈ (0, 1).
We require 0 < d < 1 + r < u:
d > 0 by limited liability;
d < 1 + r and u > 1 + r to prevent arbitrage opportunities (show how
you could make free money in case d ≥ 1 + r or u ≤ 1 + r!).
Derivatives pricing
Replicating Portfolio
Risk-neutral pricing
By no arbitrage we must have V0 = X0 , and from the above we can write
1 uV1 (T ) − dV1 (H)
V0 = + ∆0 S0
1+r u−d
1 uV1 (T ) − dV1 (H) V1 (H) − V1 (T )
= +
1+r u−d u−d
1 1+r−d u−1−r
= V1 (H) + V1 (T )
1+r u−d u−d
1
= (e
p V1 (H) + qe V1 (T ))
1+r
Note that the parameters pe, qe we introduced are positive and satisfy
pe + qe = 1. We thus have the risk neutral valuation (RNV) formula:
1 e e V1
V0 = E [V1 ] = E (2)
1+r 1+r
Overview One period Two periods Extensions 10 / 34
Imperial College
London
Market-implied probabilities
Typically, you observe the market price of financial instruments and recover
risk-neutral probabilities via RNV. Such probabilities are therefore called
market-implied.
We now have the following system of equations, which is the counterpart of
the replicating portfolio considered in (1):
(
1
V0 = 1+r [epV1 (H) + qeV1 (T )]
pe + qe = 1,
Note that V1 (H) and V1 (T ), as well as V0 , are all given. When V0 is not
available, we can recover pe and qe by writing the above system for S0 and
then obtain V0 via RNV.
Comments
The pricing formula ignores the real world probabilities (p, 1 − p) of stock
movement: the only thing that matters is the size of the moves (derivatives
pricing depends on the volatility of the underlying, not its mean growth rate).
RNV says that under no arbitrage market prices must be martingales after
deflation by the money market account and under a risk adjusted probability
measure P.e (This clearly applies to S as well: apply (2) to S1 to verify it!)
The condition 0 < d < 1 + r < u ensures that P and P e are equivalent, in the
sense that they assign zero probability to the same events. The measure P e is
therefore usually referred to as Equivalent Martingale Measure (EMM).
The amount invested in the underlying stock, ∆0 , is usually referred to as
Delta and is the most important sensitivity (or ‘Greek’) we discuss in this
part. It represents the (first order) sensitivity of the derivative’s market value
to (small) changes in the market price of the underlying stock.
Example
We were able to find a unique solution for the replicating strategy because
there is one source of risk (up or down move in the stock price), and one
tradeable asset spanning such source of risk. This is the case of a complete
market, in which every contingent claim can be perfectly replicated.
If there is “more randomness” than the tradeable assets can span, the
market is said to be incomplete: perfect replication is no longer possible;
there are infinitely many prices consistent with no arbitrage and infinitely
many EMMs.
Incomplete market pricing techniques use the notion of approximate
hedging. For given approximation criterion chosen, you determine the best
possible (optimal) strategy delivering approximate replication. The initial
cost of setting up the strategy then gives the price of the derivative of
interest. Let’s see more on this...
Trinomial model
The simplest example of incomplete market model is obtained by extending our
one-period setting to a trinomial model.
There are now three states of the world at time 1 (states H, M , and T ):
S1 (H) = uS0
with prob. pH
S1 = S1 (M ) = mS0 with prob. pM
S1 (T ) = dS0 with prob. pT .
Market incompleteness
By using market information, we know that the relevant EMM (i.e., the
market implied RN probabilities) would be identified via the system∗
(
1
1+r [e
pH S1 (H) + peM S1 (M ) + peT S1 (T )] = S0
peH + peM + peT = 1,
which has infinitely many solutions (two equations with three unknowns).
There are two main ways to proceed here:
1. Market completion.
2. Incomplete market pricing methods.
∗
The system’s first equation is equivalent to peH u + peM m + peT d = 1 + r.
Overview One period Two periods Extensions 17 / 34
Imperial College
London
where the first equation is nothing else than the pricing equation for the
stock written in the previous slide.
If the system admits a unique solution (epH , peM , peT ), then we can price any
other derivative with payoff (say) V1 via the RNV formula (3).
AGENDA
1 Overview
2 One period
3 Two periods
4 Extensions
Note that for a derivative with terminal value V2 we may not have
V2 (HT ) = V2 (T H) in general. You will see an exercise on path-dependent
derivatives as an example.
We price any derivative by working on the tree from the terminal date backwards.
To fix ideas, consider a call option with payoff V2 = (S2 − K)+ . Here’s the algo:
1. Build up the tree of asset prices (S0 , S1 , S2 ) along times 0, 1, 2.
2. Write down the terminal payoff of the derivative at maturity, V2 .
3. Consider the one-period binomial trees leading to the final outcomes at the
terminal date. For each binomial tree determine the pair ∆1 , X1 across
states H and T .
4. Consider the first one-period binomial tree leading to the outcomes available
at the end of the first time period. Determine ∆0 , X0 based on the
quantities ∆1 (H), X1 (H) and ∆1 (T ), X1 (T ) determined at point 3.
5. Write down the price of the derivative as V0 = X0
These are the same systems of equations as in page 9. The solutions are
similar and reported in the next page for convenience.
Comments
We saw that the replicating strategy now entails state contingent stock and
cash positions. This is referred to as dynamic hedging.
In particular, the Delta relevant at time 0 (∆0 ) needs to be adjusted based
on the realization of the stock price at time 1 (∆1 (H) or ∆1 (T )). The
sensitivity of Delta to changes in the underlying instrument is called Gamma.
One can verify that RNV applies at each time and state. For example, from
system (4) in the previous page we can write the market value of the
replicating strategy as follows
" #
1 V 2
X1 (H) = [e
pV2 (HH) + qeV2 (HT )] = E
e F1 ,
1+r 1+r
and hence X1 (T ) = 2.
We note that (5 − S1 (T ))+ = (5 − 2)+ = 3 > X1 (T ), and hence early
exercise is optimal at time 1 in state T .
We can solve for the replicating portfolio at time 0 by just using (1):
(
1 uV1 (T )−dV1 (H) 1 u3−d0.4
X0 − ∆0 S0 = 1+r u−d = 1+r u−d = 3.0933
V1 (H)−V1 (T ) 0.4−3
∆0 = S1 (H)−S1 (T ) = S0 (u−d) = −0.4333
The put option price is therefore V0 = 1.36, which is clearly larger than the
corresponding European option price of 0.96 (verify it!).
The difference represents the market value of the option to exercise early the
right to sell the stock at a fixed price (early exercise premium).
AGENDA
1 Overview
2 One period
3 Two periods
4 Extensions
Multi-period models
Dividends
In practice, stocks pay dividends and their impact on a derivative’s value can be
sizeable.
Assume a continuous dividend yield δ ≥ 0, which is reinvested continuously
in the stock.
Then the usual restrictions on the tree parameters now become
eδh dS0 < S0 erh < eδh uS0 , thus yielding d < e(r−δ)h < u.
The replication arguments developed earlier on carry over to the present
setting, the only difference being that we need to take into account
reinvestment of dividends. Using the one-period model as a reference
benchmark, for example, this means that the cash and stock positions of the
replicating strategy given in (1) are replaced by
(
X0 − ∆0 S0 = e−rh uVh (Tu−d )−dVh (H)
(5)
∆0 = e−δh Shh (H)−Shh (T ) = e−δh Vh (H)−V
V (H)−V (T ) h (T )
S0 (u−d)
e e−r V1 ,
V0 = E