Journal of Cleaner Production 19 (2011) 78e90

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Journal of Cleaner Production

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The steel industry, abiotic resource depletion and life cycle assessment: a real or
perceived issue?
Mohan Yellishetty*, Gavin M. Mudd, P.G. Ranjith
Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Time and again, there has been a hue and a cry that the world is running out of natural resources and the
Received 9 August 2010 most prominent among those is the famous study entitled ‘The Limits to Growth’ by the ‘Club of Rome’.
Accepted 30 August 2010 Since then the fear of scarcity of abiotic resources has been challenging human societies around the
Available online 8 September 2010
globe, particularly the research community. In this paper we will examine the case of the steel industry
to argue how and why mineral resources depletion is an issue that needs to be addressed through life
Keywords:
cycle assessment in more detail. This paper shows that a more comprehensive understanding about the
LCA
current production trends of iron ore and steel, which also requires several vital metals such as copper,
Minerals sector
Abiotic resource depletion
manganese, nickel and so on, can provide useful insights in assessing the potential future threat of
Iron and steel industry shortages due to depletion of abiotic mineral resources.
Triple bottom line and GDP Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Life cycle assessment (LCA) addresses the potential environ-

The mining sector provides materials that are essential elements
in a wide range of goods and services. By virtue of their inherent
qualities (strength, chemical resistance, lustre, etc.), minerals and
metals create value by meeting human needs. It is commonly
believed that these mineral resources endowment are critical in
early low-income stages of the development process of any country
(Auty, 1993) and thus play an important role in regional develop-
ment. From time-to-time, there has been a hue and cry that the
world is running out of such abiotic natural resources. The most
famous, perhaps, was ‘The Limits to Growth’ (Meadows et al., 1972),
which included a systems dynamic model called “World3”
designed to qualitatively model the interaction of global pop-
ulation, social issues, consumption, environmental impacts,
mineral and energy resources and the economy (including the
recent 30-year update; Meadows et al., 2004). Since that seminal
study, many researchers have studied the issue of abiotic mineral
resources depletion and expressed their optimism (Caneghem
et al., 2010; Turner, 2008; Davis and Tilton, 2005, 2008; Auty,
1993), mixed (Mudd, 2009a) or otherwise (Cook, 1976) e suggest-
ing that concerns of depleting abiotic mineral resources remain at
worst contested, or at best still a distant issue.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ61 3 99058901; fax: þ61 3 99054944.
E-mail address: Mohan.Yellishetty@gmail.com (M. Yellishetty).
mental impacts, human health and resource concerns for a product
system, including raw material acquisition through manufacture,
use, end-of-life treatment, recycling and final disposal. LCA is
completed through international standards, namely ISO (2006a,b)
14040 and ISO14044 and consequently a number of different tech-
nical reports (TR) and technical standards (TS) (ISO/TR 14047:2003,
ISO/TR 14049:2000, ISO/TS 14048:2002) have been published. A
product’s life includes raw material acquisition through manufac-
ture, use, end-of-life treatment, recycling and final disposal.
LCA is a major sustainability assessment tool for industrial
sectors, including minerals and metals. Although application of LCA
to the minerals sector is relatively new, it has gained prominence in
the recent past (e.g. Nickel Institute, 2010; Giurco and Petrie, 2007;
Norgate et al., 2007; Azapagic and Clift, 1999). In the past decade and
a half, the use of LCA in the minerals sector has advanced knowledge
through the development of scientifically valid life cycle inventory
databases and models (e.g. EcoInvent, NERL, IVAM, EPS, Eco-Indi-
cator 99, etc.). Yet, the current LCA models are grappling with some
scientific anomalies in its application to the minerals sector. One
such important issue is the quantification of abiotic resource
depletion in LCA. This aspect has been the topic of wide-ranging
debate within LCA’s scientific circles e i.e. how to account for
resource depletion in the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) stage?
There remains no definitive approach for quantifying the effects in
this LCA impact category. In contrast, current LCA models fail to
recognise the abiotic resource depletion as a potential problem and
therefore do not address the issue to the extent it should.

0959-6526/$ e see front matter Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2010.08.020
 M. Yellishetty et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 19 (2011) 78e90 79

The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate why mineral
resources depletion is an issue that needs to be addressed in the LCIA
stage in more detail. Through the steel industry’s case study this paper
seeks to argue why abiotic resource depletion is a problem both at
a regional and global level from the ‘triple bottom line’ perspective.
The paper demonstrates how, in the regional/global context, mined
abiotic resources depletion could lead to social, economic and envi-
ronmental imbalances and proposes a framework to develop appro-
priate indicators to include environmental, social and economic
aspects in LCIAs. To facilitate the discussion, the relevant literature
about LCA relevant to abiotic resource depletion has been reviewed
prior to the presentation of the steel sector’s case study.
2. Abiotic resource depletion: current state of the art
knowledge in LCA
In the context of LCA abiotic resources are defined as “raw
materials or means for production or consumption activities”
(Stewart and Weidema, 2005). Depletion of abiotic resources implies
that the resources are consumed through intended or unintended
physical disintegration or dissipation. Depletion leads to the reduced
availability of the corresponding type of resource to future genera-
tions. Impacts from resource use have been a prominent impact
category in most environmental impact assessment methods (i.e.
LCIAs) for LCA developed since the early 1990s. The numerous
methodologies proposed for the impact assessment of resource use
were reviewed by the SETAC Working Group IA-2 (Lindeijer et al.,
2002) and, based on a suggestion by Finnveden (1996), the meth-
odologies were categorised into four main approaches. Two out of
four methodologies focus on current consumption, while other two
types focus on future consequences. According to Stewart and
Weidema (2005), the major deficiency in the first two methodolo-
gies is their limited ability to adequately reflect the loss in func-
tionality related to their use as mineral resources are the entities
valued for their functionality they deliver to humans.
Recently, there seems to be a broad consensus emerging on
impact category indicators in LCIA and their significant environ-
mental issues (ISO, 2006b), but there seems to be less consensus on
how significant the problem of abiotic resource depletion is, and to
what extent it should be on the agenda of LCIA. According to Steen
(2006), the existing methods for characterisation and weighting of
abiotic resources appear to be based on the following four types of
problem definitions: (a) mining cost will be a limiting factor; (b)
collecting metals or other substances from low-grade sources is
mainly an issue of energy; (c) scarcity is a major threat; and (d)
environmental impacts from mining and processing of mineral
resources are the main problem.
For LCIA, various proposals have been made for impact cate-
gories and category indicators for abiotic resources (Lindfors et al.,
1995; Lee, 1998; Guinée, 2002; Finnveden, 2005; Weidema et al.,
2005; Brent and Hietkamp, 2006; Steen, 2006). In principle, there
are four types of indicators based on the following: (a) energy or
mass; (b) relation of use to deposits (i.e. rate of depletion); (c)
future consequences of resource extractions; (d) exergy consump-
tion or entropy production. Based on the discussion presented by
Guinée (2002), the abiotic resource depletion impact assessment
methods may be characterised into five groups as given in Table 1.
Reap et al. (2008) have criticized this, because existence of more
than one method of categorisation leads to different models and
thus giving different outcomes of the study results.
However, none of the impact category indicators discussed (see
Table 1) about abiotic resources take into consideration the
growing mineral extraction, falling ore grades and non-availability
of a particular resource in a region for their future consumption and
hence they are conceptually wrong (Finnveden, 2005). Further-
more, as LCA is increasingly being used as ‘sustainability assess-
ment tool’ rather than just ‘environmental assessment tool’, it is
therefore timely that we embark on the task of developing impact
category indicators that will address the issue from the ‘triple
bottom line’ perspective. Therefore, resource depletion may need to
be considered in LCAs from the perspective of time, environmental
and economic aspects of mineral extraction and future conse-
quences of decreased availability of mineral resources for a region,
which is the main focus of this study.
3. Methodology and data sources
The steel industry produces numerous alloys (or grades or types
of steel), which in turn require wide-ranging mineral and metal
resources. Throughout this paper, the tonnages of steel refer to the
crude steel equivalent unless otherwise mentioned. All production
data covers 1950 through to 2008, and data are primarily sourced
from government, and industry-supported associations or from
research literature. Throughout this paper, the statistics are
expressed in metric tonnes unless otherwise mentioned
specifically.
In case of iron ore, both United States Geological Survey (USGS)
and British Geological Survey reports were used, since they have
reported annual data for total ore production and estimated iron
content. Specific sources include:

Table 1
Impact assessment methods of abiotic resources (source: modified from Yellishetty et al., 2009).

Group Assessment method Empirical formula

P
Group 1 Aggregation of natural resource extraction on mass basis (Lindfors et al., 1995) ADPi ¼ CFi  mi where CFi ¼ 1
i
P
Group 2 Aggregation and assessment based on energy impacts based on substitution of the current ADPi ¼ WTP  mi
extraction process or improved future processes Steen (1999). i
P
Group 3 Aggregation and assessment based on the exergy or entropy content or change Bösch et al. (2007). ADPi ¼ CFi  mi where CFi ¼ Exch,i
i
2
Group 4 Aggregation and assessment based either on the quantity of resource that is ultimately available CFi ¼ ADPi ¼ DRi
 ðRref Þ
ðRi Þ2 DRref
or the part of the reserve base that can be economically extracted, and the extraction rate at the
time of the assessment Guinée and Heijungs (1995) and Guinée (2002).
P
Group 5 Aggregation and assessment based on the change in the anticipated environmental impact of the ADPi ¼ CFi  mi where CFi ¼ SPEi
resource extraction process due to lower grade deposits that have to be mined in the future i

Goedkoop and Spriensma (2001) and Müller-Wenk (1998).

ADPi -Abiotic depletion potential of resource i (kg Sb-equivents/kg resource i); CFi -characterisation factor for abiotic depletion of resource i; mi -mass of resource i consumed
in the process; WTP -is the willingness to pay to restore impacts to the ‘safe guard subject’, in this case abiotic stock resources, expressed in environmental load units (ELU, V);
Exch,i -chemical exergy of resource i (MJ/kg); DRi -the extraction rate of resource i (kg/year); Ri -the ultimate reserve of resource i (kg); Rref -the ultimate reserve of the reference
resource antimony (kg); DRref-the extraction rate of the reference resource antimony (kg/year); SPEi -is the surplus energy (MJ) needed to extract 1 kg of a resource from
a lower grade ore.
80 M. Yellishetty et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 19 (2011) 78e90

Table 2
Alloying elements, important minerals and their respective effects on steel’s properties (Modified from: Fenton, 2005; Hale, 2000).

Alloying element Main minerals Effects of alloying elements on various steel properties

Improves and/or controls and/or imparts

Boron Borax and Ulexite Hardenability without loss of machinability and formability

Calcium Calcite, Dolomite and Gypsum Hardenability, strength, hardness and wear resistance.
Reduces ductility, weldability, and toughness

Cerium/Zirconium/Magnesium Monazite & Bastnasite/Zircon/Dolomite, Shape of inclusions and toughness in high-strength

Magnesite, Brucite, Talc, and Olivine low-alloy steels; deoxidizes steels.

Chromium Chromite Toughness, hardenability, wear and corrosion resistance, and

high-temperature strength; increases depth of hardness
penetration in heat treatment by promoting carburization

Cobalt/Tungsten Cobaltite also Cu and Ni mining/ Strength and hardness at elevated temperatures
Wolframite and Scheelite.

Columbium/Tantalum Pyrochlore and Columbite/Tantalite. Fine-grain size, strength and impact toughness; lowers transition
temperature; may decrease hardenability

Copper Chalcopyrite, Bornite, Covellite, Chalcocite; Resistance to atmospheric corrosion and to a lesser extent strength
Azurite, Malachite and the Cuprite. with little loss in ductility; adversely affects hot-working
characteristics and surface quality

Lead Galena, Cerussite and Anglesite Machinability; causes liquid metal embrittlement

Manganese Pyrolusite, Braunite, Psilomelane, and to a Hardenability, strength, abrasion resistance, and machinability;
lesser extent as Rhodochrosite deoxidizes the molten steel and reduces hot shortness; decreases weldability

Molybdenum Molybdeniteas, Wulfenite and Powellite. Hardenability, wear resistance, toughness, elevated temperature
strength, creep resistance, and hardness; minimizes temper embrittlement

Nickel Limonite, Garnierite and Pentlandite Strength, toughness, and corrosion resistance; improves hardenability

Phosphorous Phosphate rocks Strength, hardenability, corrosion resistance, and machinability;

severely reduces ductility and toughness

Selenium Selenide Selenate and Selenite. Machinability

Silicon Amethyst, Agate, Quartz, and in Strength, hardness, corrosion resistance, and electrical conductivity;
many Silicate minerals decreases magnetic hysteresis loss, machinability, and cold formability

Sulfur Sulfide and Sulfate Machinability when combined with manganese; lowers impact strenth and
ductility; impairs surface quality and weldability

Tellurium Telluride of gold Machinability, forability, and toughness

Titanium Rutile and Ilmenite Hardenability; deoxidizes steels

Vanadium Patronite, Vanadinite and Carnotite Strength, toughness, abrasion resistance, and hardness at elevated
temperatures; inhibits grain growth during heat treatment

 World mineral production statistical information: (USGS, 2008;
British Geological Survey, 2008; World Steel Association, 2007;
Kirk, 2000 and Wilshire et al., 1983).
 World mineral reserves and reserves base: (USGS, 2010a,b;
Tanzer, 1980).
 World metals consumption statistical information: (World
Steel Association, 2007; Tcha and Takashina, 2002; and
Wilshire et al., 1983).
 World GDP statistical information: (The World Bank, 2010 and
United Nations, 2010).
 Economic prices: (Kelly and Matos, 2010; USGS, 2010a,b; The
Tex Report Ltd, 2008).
 Ore grades: copper in the USA, Australia and Canada (Ruth, 1995;
Mudd, 2009a,b); copper-cobalt ore in Zambia (Nyambe and
Kawamya, 2005); nickel in Australia, Canada and New Caledo-
nia (Mudd, 2009a,b, 2010a,b); iron ore (British Geological
Survey, 2008; USGS, 2010a,b; CEC, 1965).
The production data in respect of most minerals are reported by
either the USGS or BGS. In the case of iron ore the data was directly
taken from these sources, whereas in the case of other minerals, we
have indexed them (considering year 1950s production as base) so
as to remove scale effects. Similarly, the USGS also reports the data
in respect of reserves and reserves base annually in its ‘Mineral
Commodities Section’. To obtain the ore grades, where such data
was not readily available, the metal content was divided by the total
mineral production in that year.
The steel consumption in this paper is defined as apparent crude
steel equivalents (consumption ¼ production þ imports  exports).
For most other metals consumption data was taken from the
sources above. The modelling of future production was done
with regression analysis of the historical data. The GDP data was
reported in nominal US dollars, which was converted to real US
dollar equivalents by multiplying with the consumer price index
(CPI) values reported by the US department of Labour (assuming
year 1990 as the base).
4. Different metals/minerals and their uses in steel making
A mineral deposit is generally defined as an ore with sufficient
concentration of an element so as to facilitate its economic
extraction of the required quality. Ores are extracted through open
pit or underground mines and processed to concentrate or extract
the element of interest. The processing can involve numerous
stages, such as flotation/concentration, smelting and refining
(common for base metals), hydrometallurgical routes (e.g. cyani-
dation for gold, heap leaching for copper) or combinations of
hydro- and pyrometallurgical steps (e.g. bauxite to alumina to
aluminium). The production of steel mixes iron ore and coal of
various types (coking, pulverised, etc.) in a blast furnace.
 M. Yellishetty et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 19 (2011) 78e90 81

2,500 production has been increasing almost continuously since 1950 as

well as the production of most minerals and metals used in steel
production. In most cases the growth has been exponential (e.g. Fe,
Cr, Mo, Ni, S, V and Co), whereas in others cases it is more gradual
2,000
(eg. Pb, Mn and W) e the clear trend is long-term growth. The
increasing production trends are largely attributable to economic
Iron Ore Production (Mt ore)

progress, population growth coupled with industrial development

1,500 in the world. It is widely expected that mineral production will
continue to grow given the growing and substantial demand for
minerals from developing and transition countries such as Brazil,
Russia, India and China (the so called ‘BRIC’ countries).
1,000

4.2. A new abiotic resource depletion framework and their potential

application in LCA impact category models
500
The finite nature of individual mineral deposits and difficulties in
finding more deposits with available technologies has led to many
forecasts of resource depletion (e.g. Yellishetty et al., 2010; Muller
0 et al., 2006; Lee, 1998; Cook, 1976) and they differ appreciably.
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Invariably, however, historical estimates have proven inaccurate.
Fig. 1. Historical global production trends of iron ore.
This could be due to successful exploration, recovery and processing
technologies as well as evolving economic demands and prices
enabling the exploitation of lower grade, deeper and more remote
deposits economically e creating resources where none existed
The term ‘steel’ refers to an alloy of metallic iron that contains (Cook, 1976) and thus increasing the available abiotic mineral
manganese, carbon, and often an array of other alloying elements e resource.
and is therefore not a single product. The different steel alloy Table 3 provides a comparison of historical and recent estimates
specifications are known as ‘grades’ also called as ‘ferroalloys’. of world mineral resources relevant for steel. It is evident that the
Currently, there are more than 3,500 different grades of steel which reserves and reserves base are dynamic and are changing with the
are formally recognised with many different physical and chemical time, either they have grown or contracted, depending on
properties (Javaid and Essadiqi, 2003). Many of these steels have the mineral and its abundance. For example, from 1974 to 2007, the
been developed in the last two decades to produce combinations of world iron ore reserves (R) have grown by 72% and reserves base
strength, ductility, hardness, toughness, magnetic permeability and (RB) have decreased by 99%, whereas from 1999 to 2007 the trend
corrosion resistance to meet the needs of modern technology and has been different where both R and RB have grown by 7 and 13%,
consumers. The major alloying elements and their effects on respectively. Therefore, it can be said that neither R nor RB are fixed
various properties of steel are presented in Table 2. stocks since new discoveries and new technologies are constantly
expanding R and RB (Tilton, 2003). A further issue is the differing
4.1. Production trends of important minerals and metals used in methods used to assess economic mineral resources in various
steel making countries.
According to Tanzer (1980) another important reason behind
The production trends of iron ore is presented in Fig. 1, with the the concerns over scarcity could be because of misleading inter-
production index of various metals used in steel alloys relative to pretation of the data on the ‘reserves’ of various mineral resources.
1950 shown in Fig. 2. It can be seen that the world iron ore It is believed that at any point in time these estimates are only

10
25 Cr Ni Mn Cu
V
V W Mo 9 Pb
Production index (Relative to 1950)

Co
Production index (Relative to 1950)

Co
8 S
20
7

6 S
15 Cu
Mo
5
Ni

10 4
Cr
3
Pb
5 Mn 2

1
W

0 0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Fig. 2. Production index trends of other important alloying elements used in steel making in the world (production of 1950 ¼ 1).
82 M. Yellishetty et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 19 (2011) 78e90

Table 3
Balance sheet of selected world mineral reserves (R) and reserves base (RB) and their depleting timeframes.

Ore/Mineral Units World (1974)e World (1999)f World (2007)f % increase/ % increase/ Production Life
decrease decrease in 2007 expectancy
(1974e2007) (1999e2007) (yrs)

Rc, a
RBd, b
R RB R RB R RB R RB
Iron Mt 87,001 1,400,013,970,788 140,000 300,000 150,000 340,004 72 (99) 7 13 1900 79
Boron Mt 170 470 170 410 e e (0.001) (13) 4.3 40
Cobalt kt 2000 600,005,987,000 5000 10,000 7000 13,000 192 (99) 48 24 62.3 (kt) 112
Columbium kt 4000 6000 2700 3000 e e (30) (51) 45 60
Copper Mt 390 1,500,014,969 340 650 490 940 26 (99) 44 45 15.6 31
Lead Mt 145 290,002,894 66 140 79 170 (46) (99) 20 21 3.55 22
Manganese Mt 1900 31,200,311,349 680 5000 460 5200 (76) (99) (32) 4 11.6 40
Molybdenum Mt 5 31,200,311 6 12 8.6 19 72 (99) 56 58 1.87 46
Nickel Mt 44 2,100,021 44 154 67 150 51 (99) 52 (3) 1.66 40
Selenium tonnes e e 77,160 143,299 82,000 170,000 e e 6 19 1550 53
Vanadium Mt 10 3,400,033,929 11 30 13 38 34 (99) 18 28 58.6 (kt) 222

Mt e Million tonnes; kt e Kilo tonnes.

a
Reserves.
b
Reserves base.
c
A concentration of naturally occurring solid, liquid, or gaseous material in or on the Earth’s crust in such form and amount that economic extraction of a commodity from
the concentration is currently or potentially feasible.
d
That part of an identified resource that meets specified minimum physical and chemical criteria related to current mining and production practices, including those for
grade, quality, thickness, and depth. The reserve base is the in-place demonstrated (measured plus indicated) resource from which reserves are estimated. It may encompass
those parts of the resources that have a reasonable potential for becoming economically available within planning horizons beyond those that assume proven technology and
current economics.
e
(Tanzer, 1980).
f
(USGS, 2010a,b).

tentative and normally estimated on lower side, because of much of
the world’s terrain has never been explored. This could be due to
surplus of minerals available for mining and use and thereby no
attention is being paid in exploring for new resources. Within the
mining industry it is widely recognized that there exists little
economic incentive to identify reserves beyond 20e30 years of
consumption, given the costs of such efforts and the time value of
money. However, Tilton (2003) argued that while assessing the
long-run availability of mineral resources, RB does not provide
a realistic picture, emphasizing that economic measures are more
widely accepted than those of physical measures when it comes to
minerals.
Table 4 summarises the mineral resources for selected countries
which represent major players of world steel production. Nearly,
80% of the world’s steel is produced by these countries along with
Japan and Europe (Japan does not produce any minerals whereas
Europe’s data was not readily available). It is clear from the Table 4
that not all steel producing countries are endowed with all
minerals, including iron ore, which are needed for supporting their
own growth. In some cases these quantities are too low to support
the current growth patterns on a long-term basis, such as the next
50 years (or longer). Dubreuil (2008) argued that the exact
assessment of the quantity of global metal stocks available for
a long-term perspective cannot be precise and any assessment is
dependent on geological considerations, technology and economic
aspects.
According to Yellishetty et al. (2010), this non-availability of
a particular resource in a region or country (see Table 4), where it is
needed, would require transportation. This transportation, either
by rail, road and/or sea would have to expend some energy and
consequently additional CO2 emissions. According to their esti-
mates, in the case of steel industry it was observed that seaborne
transport could contribute an additional 10e15% CO2 emissions
(per tonne of crude steel production), which is quite important
while considering the environmental impacts due to abiotic
resource depletion in the context of LCA. Thus, when we think of
abiotic resource availability or scarcity, mainly from a regional
perspective, the problem never seems to be borne out due to
depletion, transportation and imports.
As an additional check on the quality (or accuracy) of reserves
data, the iron ore mineral resources reported by major iron ore
miners were compiled in Table 5. For Australia, the three major
miners are Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and more recently Fortescue
Metals Group, producing 142.1, 108.3 and 14.8 Mt ore in 2008
compared to total reserves and resources of 16,917 Mt ore grading
60.5% Fe, 10,311 Mt ore grading 59.7% Fe and 1506 Mt ore grading
58.9% Fe, respectively. All companies have interests in additional
iron ore resources (not included in Table 5). It can be seen that
Brazil’s Vale and Anglo-French giant ArcellorMittal have similar
production and resource statistics. The USGS reports 16,000 and
45,000 Mt iron ore in reserves and reserves base, respectively, for
Australia, while the sum of all of Australian iron ore companies
reserves and resources (as defined by the JORC Code; AusImm et al.,
2004) is 36,835 Mt ore grading 57.3% Fe (including additional
companies and deposits not included in Table 5). Furthermore,
Geoscience Australia reports 23.9 Gt iron ore as accessible
economic resources, with an additional 30.8 Gt in sub-economic
resources (GA, 2009). As such, although one could conclude from
this table and data that resource depletion is not an imminent
threat, Table 5 shows that ore grades decline between reserves and
resources (cf. 59.1% v 57.8% Fe). In addition, other aspects of iron ore
are critical in determining its suitability for steel production,
namely impurities such as silica (SiO2), alumina (Al2O3), sulphur
(S), or phosphorous (P) (as they will dramatically affect the
performance of the blast furnace), as well as different mineralogy
(hematite versus magnetite) (see Upadhyay and Venkatesh, 2006;
Abzalov et al., 2007; Zhu et al., 2009).
When considering abiotic resources and their depletion
concerns, it is critical to examine trends over time, as well as
aspects such as ore grade and impurities. Given the multiple
mineral and metallic inputs to steel, it is also crucial to consider the
resources of all such inputs e which also face similar problems of
declining ore grades, impurities and quality (Mudd, 2009a,
2010a,b).
In a recent study, Yellishetty et al. (2010) studied the iron ore
production trends in the world and derived an empirical relation-
ship to estimate the future production of iron ore and then
proposed an empirical equation to estimate depletion timeframes
 M. Yellishetty et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 19 (2011) 78e90 83

in respect of iron ore (applied in Fig. 3). Following a similar

150,001
approach, we have extended this approach to other minerals used

0.120

0.018
in steel making, such as cobalt, copper, manganese, molybdenum

RB

80

70
e
e

e
e
e
e

e
and nickel. According to Lee (1998), these indicators were also
called as ‘resource depletion index (RDIs)’. Table 6 presents the
empirical equation and then compares the RDI’s in respect of some
69,007

0.109

0.011
important minerals using both the methods. On this basis, the
USA

40

35
e
e

e
e
e
e

e
R

world’s iron ore reserves (ie. R of 150,000 Mt) would exhaust in less
than fifty years. This means there is a difference of some 32 years
between the Lee (1998) estimate of 79 years and those estimate by
68,001

our proposed RDIs.

520
RB

There are different school of thoughts that have been proposed

e
e
e
e
e
e

e
e
e
e
around the world within LCA regarding ‘what timeframe to
consider’ when defining resource scarcity. One school of thought is
Ukraine

30,000

that abiotic resources scarcity is perceived to be the decreasing

140

concentrations of mineral resources at some time in the future

e
e
e
e
e
e

e
e
e
e
R

therefore it is an issue to be addresses in LCA (e.g. Steen, 2006).

Conversely, another school of thought argues that replacement
technologies will address decreased minerals concentrations and
56,000

0.363
9.11

hence mineral depletion may not be an issue (e.g. Stewart and

100

3.5
RB

30
e

e
e

e
7

Weidema, 2005). It is time, therefore, to develop characterisation

factors/RDIs for abiotic resources that can give more realistic
assessment of resource depletion by applying the example of iron
25,000
Russia

0.236

ore to LCA.
2.49

6.59

4.99
40

20
e

e
e

Given the consistent historical patterns of growing mineral

R

production, it would be possible to develop similar RDIs for other

minerals and metals, and, excluding dramatic changes in tech-
9800

nology or demands, it is possible to forecast their respective

RB

57
e

e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e

resource futures and potential depletion timeframes.

5. Abiotic resource depletion in LCA: a framework for

India

6600

characterisation
25
e

e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
R

5.1. Mining’s role in regional environmental and socio-economic

landscape and its implication to LCA practice
46,000

4.67

100
8.3
7.0
RB

74

63
36

14
Balance sheet of mineral reserves and reserve bases of selected countries (values in million tonnes).

Mining is a site specific activity and therefore has to take place

wherever minerals exist, and is a land intensive sector. Historically,
most of the minerals have commonly been found in locations remote
21,000
China

from major population centres. Land use by the mining industry,

0.717

10.99

3.30
1.09

4.99
25

26

40

though temporary in nature, can lead to substantial local impacts,

e

e
R

particularly on biodiversity and soil quality crucial to ecosystem

sustainability. Coincidentally, most of the land where mining takes
place is also an important habitats for highly diverse flora and fauna.
27,000

0.399

8.301

Any mining and/or exploration activities could cause considerable,

RB

26

57
e
e

e
e

e
e

and at time irreparable, damage to the local land and biodiversity of

the region, significantly affecting local natural resources.
In addition, in such remote environments it is common for
16,000
Brazil

0.290

communities to engage in subsistence agricultural practices

4.5
26

35
e
e

e
e

e
e
R

dependent on local natural resources. In these circumstances, the

human (social and economic) dimensions of biodiversity are of
critical importance. This is particularly the case in the rural areas of
45,000

developing countries, where entire communities are directly

3.20

160
b
RB

17

43
59

27

dependent on biodiversity and ecosystem services and therefore

e
e

e
e

more vulnerable to their degradation (Nichols, 2007). Including

biodiversity impacts within LCA study is problematic at present due
Australia

16,000

to a lack of robust metrics and quality data available for such

0.209

Reserves; bReserves base.

assessment. This is particularly the case when considering biodi-

14

24
24
62

24
a

e
e

e
e
R

versity impacts due to abiotic resource depletion (i.e. mining), as

depletion could trigger larger and deeper extraction, more forest
and cultivable land clearance, etc., and therefore more damage to
Molybdenum
Ore/Mineral

Columbium

Manganese
Chromium

ecosystems and biodiversity.

Vanadium
Selenium
Copper

In contrast, another school of thought argues that since mining

Cobalt

Nickel
Boron
Table 4

Lead
Iron

activities are carried out in the remote areas, where there is partial
to no development and means of employment, these could be
a
84 M. Yellishetty et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 19 (2011) 78e90

Table 5
Iron ore resources reported by major miners (2008 data, operating mines only).

Mines/Field Country 2008 Production Reserves Reserves Resources Resources Company

(Mt ore) (Mt ore) (%Fe) (Mt ore) (%Fe)
Ouenza/Boukhadra Algeria 1.72 e e 130 e ArcellorMittal
Hamersley Iron Australia 109.968 1729 61.5 10,855 60.7 Rio Tinto
Hope Downs Australia 5.468 343 61.4 1000 60.9 Rio Tinto
Robe River Australia 26.631 660 59.8 2330 59.0 Rio Tinto
Mt Newman Australia 62.159 865 62.6 3006 60.1 BHP Billiton (1)
Jimblebar Australia 5.215 408 62.7 1131 59.6 BHP Billiton (1)
Mt Goldsworthy Australia 1.215 566 61.8 1684 59.5 BHP Billiton (1)
Yandi Joint Venture Australia 39.670 1092 53.5 1558 60.4 BHP Billiton (1)
Cloudbreak/Christmas Creek Australia 14.8 1506 58.9 e e Fortescue Metals (1)
Koolyanobbing/Cockatoo Island Australia 7.7 e e 92.8 Cliffs
Savage River Australia 2.423 e e 323.2 50.5 Grange Resources
Middleback Ranges Australia 6.665 e e 560.4 45.5 OneSteel
Tallering Peak/Koolan Island Australia 5.27 e e 86.3 62.6 Mt Gibson Iron
Omarska-Buvac Bosnia 1.19 e e 59 ArcellorMittal
Corumbá Brazil 2.032 209 67.0 582 62.8 Rio Tinto (2)
Itabira complex Brazil 41.849 827 53.5 e e Vale (1)
Centrais complex Brazil 36.150 1162 54.0 e e Vale (1)
Mariana complex Brazil 37.429 1447 47.8 e e Vale (1)
Urucum Brazil 0.990 36 62.3 e e Vale (1)
Minas Itabiritos complex Brazil 60.015 1381 48.4 e e Vale (1)
Vargem Grande complex Brazil 20.446 1703 51.1 e e Vale (1)
Serra Norte complex Brazil 96.495 2756 66.7 e e Vale (1)
Andrade/Serra Azul Brazil 1.61 1380 ArcellorMittal
Samarco Joint Venture Brazil 9.262 624 44.7 2682 39.2 BHP Billiton
Iron Ore Company of Canada Canada 9.295 570 65.0 1241 65.0 Rio Tinto
AMMC/Wabush Canada 15.01 e e 1317 e ArcellorMittal
Lisakovski/Kentube/Atasu/Atansore Kazakhstan 3.37 e e 2618 e ArcellorMittal
Pena/Las Truchas/Volcan Mexico 4.64 e e 379 e ArcellorMittal
Kryviy Rih Ukraine 9.40 e e 1814 e ArcellorMittal
Cliffs Total USA 22.9 e e 1268 e Cliffs
Hibbing/Minorca USA 8.04 e e 514 e ArcellorMittal
Totals 669 Mt ore 22,184 Mt ore 59.1 46,144 Mt ore 57.8

Notes: All data sourced from company annual reports. The use of ‘reserves’ and ‘resources’ in this table is broadly consistent with Australia’s stringent JORC Code (AusImm
et al., 2004). Resources are additional to reserves. (1) Tonnes reported on wet basis, data converted to dry tonnes for consistency; (2) Rio Tinto sold Corumbá in January 2009.

considered as an opportunity for regional development (MMSD,
2002). This is particularly true in the context of underdeveloped
economies where mining activities are expected to be responsible
for raising tax related revenues (foreign exchange) to local
governments, provide rural job avenues, raise the standard of living
as well as contributing to regional development (Davis and Tilton,
2008; ICMM, 2006 and Tanzer, 1980). Besides, the mining activi-
ties could lead to increased business activity, better road networks
and hospitals and schools, which otherwise are not possible.
Therefore, mining and related activities are seen from a socio-
160
Production
140
Reserves
120
Remaining Reserves (Gt)
economic perspective in the context of underdeveloped and
developing countries.
Alternately, where minerals from underdeveloped countries are
exploited by multi-national companies whose interest is mainly to
serve their home country’s need for minerals and/or profits, the
benefit as a result of mining, arguably, would not go to the underde-
veloped nation but the privileged few in the company’s home country.
Further, Davis and Tilton (2008) argue that, in situations where
companies only export ore concentrates, this limits the economic
value added created domestically. Needed supplies and equipment
are imported, skilled workers come from abroad, and few unskilled
4,800 workers are necessary. Where these conditions hold, mining
contributes little in the way of economic spillovers, and the benefits
4,375 for the host country are limited to the taxes and royalties it collects.
Although there are both positive and negative opinions about
mining and its effects on local communities, the fact remains that
3,950
Annual Iron Ore Production (Mt)

mines have finite lives of typically say 10e40 years. And, as the
most of the local communities depend largely on the mining and
100 3,525
related occupations, either directly or indirectly, it is imperative to
encourage the production of co-industrial products as downstream
80 3,100 economic activities. This will ensure that the dependent commu-
nities do not decline into large-scale unemployment upon mine
60 2,675 closure. Thus, sustenance of communities around mining activities
upon the closure of mining activity is a substantial challenge that
40 2,250 needs to be addressed within the LCIA of resource depletion
(a socio-economic dimension of abiotic resource depletion).
20 1,825
5.2. Is rising costs of metals an indication of their depletion?

0 1,400
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Fig. 3. Predicted global iron ore production and reserves depletion.
Generally speaking, a mineral deposit’s exploitation becomes
economically feasible only if it can be mined profitably, which in
turn depends on the market and demand for that particular metal.
 M. Yellishetty et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 19 (2011) 78e90 85

Table 6
Resource depletion index of some important minerals used in steel production.

Metal/ore Remaining quantity of 2006 Reserves (Mt) 2007 Production (Mt) Depletion year (where Rðti Þy0)
ore at time t R(ti)
Our approach Lee (1998)’s approach
" #
eðt2006Þk1  1
Iron ore R2006ðiÞ  Ae7k1 150,000 1900 2054 2086
ek1  1
" #
eðt2006Þk2  1
Cobalt R2006ðiÞ  Be7k2 7 0.0623 2065 2119
ek2  1
" #
eðt2006Þk3  1
Copper R2006ðiÞ  Ce7k3 490 15.6 2029 2038
ek3  1
" #
eðt2006Þk 4  1
Manganese R2006ðiÞ  De7k4 460 11.6 2030 2047
ek4  1
" #
Molybdenum R2006ðiÞ  Ee7k5 eðt2006Þk5 1 8.6 1.87 2034 2012
ek5 1

" #
eðt2006Þk6  1
Nickel R2006ðiÞ  Fe7k6 67 1.66 2030 2047
ek6  1

where: k1ek6 ¼ depletion coefficients (k1 ¼ 0.024; k2 ¼ 0.0257; k3 ¼ 0.0295; k4 ¼ 0.0158; k5 ¼ 0.0348; k6 ¼ 0.0344); t ¼ year to which the prediction is made;
A to F ¼ production in the year 2000 as base year (A ¼ 1403; B ¼ 42; C ¼ 12604; D ¼ 2647; E ¼ 152; F ¼ 1515); R(ti) ¼ remaining quantity of ore ‘i’ reserves at time t;
R2006(i) ¼ Reserves at the beginning of year 2006 of resource i (Mt).

Meadows et al. (1972) predicted that the increasing cost of The real prices in US$ 1998 of numerous alloying metals are
resources/metals could become a major problem for society during presented in Fig. 4. There is periodic volatility for all metals, related
the initial decades of the third millennium. In contrast, Tanzer mainly to fluctuating economic conditions and mining boom/bust
(1980) argued that raising minerals prices could reduce their cycles. It is this market volatility that is detrimental to many
consumption, mostly by developed countries. developing and underdeveloped economies, which rely more on

1.8 2.5
Cu V W Zn
Pb
1.6 Mg (metal)
Ti (metal)
2
1.4
Price index (1950=1)

Price index (1950=1)

1.2

1.5
1

0.8
1

0.6

0.4
0.5

0.2

0 0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

6 8
Cr Se
Co
7 Si
Ni
5 Ta
Mn

6 Mo
Price index (1950=1)

Price index (1950=1)

4
5

3 4

3
2

1
1

0 0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Fig. 4. Real price index (US$1998) of different alloying elements used in steel making relative to 1950.
86 M. Yellishetty et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 19 (2011) 78e90
foreign exchange earnings for planning their developmental
activities (Davis and Tilton, 2005). It is for this reason most coun-
tries in the world have established commodity stabilization funds,
which they contribute to when prices are high and withdraw from
when prices are low.
There are numerous views on the factors that will influence
metals’ prices in the world (see Papp et al., 2008). According to
business analysts, supply-demand balance is what determines the
prices of metals; investment analysts say that expectations play an
important role in determining metals’ price; the commodity
analysts opine that the prices increase as the number of weeks of
supply in stocks diminishes; and the financial market analysts say
that increased speculative investment in metals causes the price to
rise. In reality the commodity prices are affected in combination by
all of the above reasons e plus of course changes in the cash costs of
mineral production (fuels, labour, capital, and so on).
Perhaps just as important are rapid technologic advances
which have seen a progressive lowering of the economic cost per
tonne of rock (especially for energy). Combined with ongoing
discovery, these have greatly extended the availability of resources
worldwide. Technology can also be used to improve resource
efficiency or convert waste to a new resource through recycling. As
production climbs, the scale of environmental effects will also rise,
gradually favouring lower impact resources such as recycled
metals.
From Fig. 4, it can be seen that for metals real prices:
- many were declining in the latter decades of the twentieth
century (e.g. Cu, Pb, Mg, Mo, Se, Si, Ti, V, W, Zn);
- some were relatively stable throughout the period (e.g. Mn, Ni,
Ta);
- while those remaining gradually increased (e.g. Cr, Co);
- the effect of boom/bust price cycles is clearly evident for all
metals included, especially the dramatic price rises during the
most recent (2000s) mining boom.
Over time, there are a variety of competing pressures on metals
prices, and attributing factors behind real price rises or declines is
complex. It is, of course, important to consider metals prices in the
broadest context and links to socio-economic drivers as much as to
exploration, technology, economic conditions, supply-demand
balance, and so on.
Fig. 5. Metallic ore grades in different ore producing countries.
5.3. Declining ore grades
Declining ore grades or quality are a fundamental problem
facing the global mining (e.g. Schandl et al., 2008; Mudd, 2007a,b,
2009a,b, 2010b; Steen, 2006; Kesler, 1994; Tanzer, 1980; Cook,
1976). The average grades of important ores for some major
mining countries are shown in Fig. 5. Short-term variations are
often related to changing mine configurations (e.g. low-grade open
cuts versus high grade underground mines; Mudd, 2009a, 2010a,b),
new discoveries (e.g. Mt Isa Cu in Australia in 1953), or new tech-
nology (eg. carbon-in-pulp processing for gold). As noted previ-
ously, impurities such as arsenic or mercury in gold or copper ores,
or phosphorous, sulphur, alumina and silica in iron ores, and ore
grades must also be considered in conjunction with ore quality
(especially the ease of processing with existing technology). For
Australian iron ore grades, a major difficulty is that grades are
estimated based on saleable production and not raw ore, despite
the majority of iron ore requiring beneficiation before use (Mudd,
2009a, 2010a). Overall, the clear long-term trend is a decline for
all metals and ore types.
This declining trend in ore grades means that for extracting each
tonne of metal we would have to mine more ore, creating more
tailings and waste rock and requiring more energy, water and other
inputs per unit mineral production (Mudd, 2007a,b, 2010b). In
addition, as ore grades decline, it is common to require finer grinding
to maintain optimum extraction efficiency e a reflection on the
declining quality of ores as well as grades. The end result is signifi-
cant upward pressure on the environmental footprint of mineral
production e at a time when the world is facing both peak oil and
climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. As
such factors are addressed through such schemes as emissions
trading or a carbon tax, this will inevitably link with metals prices.
Another key global trend in mining is increasing depth e
perhaps epitomised by the depth of South Africa’s gold mines now
reaching some 4 km or more. Across the world, major mining fields
such as Sudbury and Kidd Creek in Canada, the Witwatersrand or
Bushveld in South Africa, to Broken Hill, Mt Isa and Kalgoorlie in
Australia are all invariably digging deeper. There is a fine balance
between the increasing waste rock excavated from deeper open cut
mines versus the smaller waste volumes form underground mining
but less complete mining of the orebody. The end result of
increasingly deep mines is either more waste or higher unit energy
 M. Yellishetty et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 19 (2011) 78e90 87

costs. Although to some extent this issue has been addressed in the Table 7
LCIA stage (Group 5 impact category method in Table 1), the issue Per capita metal consumption of different regions in the world in 1993 (kg per
capita).
needs to be addressed more comprehensively (to include the
multitude of effects of declining ore grades, such as biodiversity Metal Asia Europe North America South America Oceania Africa
issues, land disturbance, toxicity, etc. and potential synergistic Copper 1.178 6.398 5.762 1.558 5.371 0.149
behaviour). The issues of declining ore grades, quality and Lead 0.41 3.218 3.23 1.016 2.396 0.163
Nickel 0.084 0.553 0.337 0.056 0.061 0.017
increasing mine depth are critical to understand the evolving
Tin 0.025 0.112 0.085 0.03 0.011 0.003
nature of abiotic resource depletion with respect to LCIA as well as Zinc 0.686 4.014 2.878 1.212 5.268 0.214
the environmental costs of mineral production generally (Mudd,
2010a).

6. Discussion & critique: how are shifting mineral resources their industrial growth. However, this conventional wisdom over-
and mines to be accounted for in LCA? looks the fact that minerals are non-renewable and hence every
tonne of mineral resource produced and exported (de-accumula-
Metals in general, and steel in particular, have historically been tion) by countries today, especially underdeveloped nations, would
linked with industrial development and improved living standards, mean that the same is not available for the future for their own
and thus play an important role in our modern societies. According development. Jacobs (1969) stated that “the cities of today are the
to Tilton (1989), steel plays a very important role in fostering the mines of tomorrow” e that is, the ‘mines below the ground’ from
growth of developing countries, especially when they are indus- underdeveloped countries are shifted to developed countries as
trialising. The quantity of steel consumption per capita is a widely ‘mines above the ground’. As a consequence, the short-term benefit
used metric to gauge the economic and/or industrial performance from foreign exchange overlooks the longer term risks of non-
of any country or region, and is often related to crucial economic availability of those resources in the host country for future
indices such as the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. generations. Furthermore, there are increasing numbers of
Fig. 6 illustrates the relationship between per capita steel economic models advocating that the countries which relied on
consumption and the per capita GDP (real US$) for a number of extractive industries and mineral exports have had relatively
different regions over the period (1998e2007). It is evident that the slower economic growth when compared to those relying on
most developed countries or regions, such as North America, manufacturing industries (Davis, 1995, 2008), which is also evident
Europe and Oceania, all have higher per capita steel consumption from Fig. 6. For example, many nations across Africa have devel-
rates (an average of over 330 kg) which correlate with their average oped major resource export industries in the past few decades yet
GDP per capita of US$ 27,000. In contrast, in developing regions there has been no major shift in material consumption linked to
such as many Asian and South American nations, the average per improved standards of living.
capita steel consumption rates are of the order of 160 kg whereas Table 8 presents the case of iron ore mass flows from three
their average GDP per capita is just below US$ 4000. For African regions in the world, namely Africa, South America and Asia. These
nations, who have had very marginal to no development and regions are traditionally the regions that relied more on their
higher poverty, have only 50 kg per capita steel consumption with mineral exports and have been serving the developed countries’
US$ 1050 GDP per capita. Table 7 shows the relative per capita apatite for more minerals. Coincidentally, these regions also repre-
consumption in respect of other metals by different regions of the sent the majority of developing and underdeveloped nations. Table 8
world, which also point towards similar trends as steel. also compares the relative performance of each of these regions in
Davis and Tilton (2008) have argued that the policy analysts and terms of their iron ore production, imports and exports and
economists consider mineral wealth as a boon for poorer countries consumption nearly for a decade (1998e2006). It is quite evident
to generate foreign exchange, tax revenues and other assets by that Africa and South America rely mostly on mineral exports in the
serving the richer countries with resources they need to sustain sense that their consumption ratios (CR), in the period 1998e2006

400
Per capita steel consumption (kg/person/year)

350

300
Developed countries

250

200 Africa
Asia

150 Europe
North America
Developing countries
Oceania
100 South America
World

50
Underdeveloped countries

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Real GDP per capita ('000 US$ 1998)

Fig. 6. Per capita GDP and steel consumption relationship (1998e2007).

88 M. Yellishetty et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 19 (2011) 78e90

Table 8
Balance sheet of iron ore production and consumption patterns.

Year Africa South America Asia

Pa, f
Eb, f
Ic, f
Cd, f
CRe Pa, f
Eb, f
Ic, f
Cd, f
CRe Pa, f
Eb, f
Ic, f
Cd, f
CRe
1998 49 34 4 20 0.40 214 163 6 57 0.27 191 33 229 387 2.03
1999 45 32 4 16 0.37 218 157 4 66 0.30 184 31 234 387 2.10
2000 49 32 6 22 0.46 239 177 5 67 0.28 183 35 270 418 2.29
2001 50 34 5 21 0.43 242 173 5 74 0.31 184 37 294 441 2.40
2002 52 35 5 22 0.43 258 187 5 76 0.29 197 55 308 450 2.28
2003 53 33 6 27 0.50 278 203 6 82 0.29 224 58 349 515 2.30
2004 54 36 7 25 0.47 305 258 6 53 0.17 269 63 414 619 2.30
2005 55 38 8 25 0.45 329 245 7 91 0.28 344 92 476 728 2.12
2006 57 37 7 28 0.48 357 265 8 100 0.28 461 90 530 902 1.96
a
Production.
b
Exports.
c
Imports.
d
Consumption (PþIE).
e
Consumption ratio (C/P).
f
Million tonnes.

(arithmetic average), were 0.44 and 0.27, respectively. In contrast,
Asia had an average CR value of 2.20, which means that Asia was
a net importer of iron ore. Much of this was due to China, which is
now a major factor driving world mineral trade.
The recent growth in GDP per capita by major regions is shown
in Fig. 7. It is evident that mineral consumption is closely related to
national economic growth factors in individual nations and regions,
which is demonstrated by the progress each region is making in
terms of its national per capita GDP growth rates. Although it can be
rapid in some cases (e.g. China), it remains incremental in other
cases (eg. South America). A critical exception to this tendency,
however, is that of African nations, which had negative real GDP per
capita growth from 1979 to 2001. Societies, as they develop,
demand more metals in a way that depends on their current
economic position. For example, development in a country that is
constructing roads, railways, public utilities, and building infra-
structure would make a greater demand on metals use than would
the development of a country that has nearly adequate amounts of
transportation, housing, and basic services. The best example for
this is China, which has placed substantial emphasis on infra-
structure projects to which much of the funding comes from the
state. In fact, it was this surging demand for metals from China
which has pushed Asian CRs so high, otherwise the situation in Asia
would be no different from the other two regions in Table 4.
Moreover, despite the long history of mineral exports by
Africa, Asia and South America, the economic performance of
these regions still lags behind the developed regions. In contrast,
the African GDP is dwindling in real terms (Fig. 7). There are,
without doubt, numerous reasons why these regions did not
capitalise on their natural strengths. However, what is arguably
most important is that the current trend in mineral exports (ie.
abiotic resource depletion) coupled with problems of corruption,
mismanagement and poverty could force these regions into
a more severe crisis in the future as their purchasing power
would not allow them to buy back these exhausted natural
resources from rich countries. Therefore it is important to
address the abiotic resource depletion from both environmental
as well as socio-economic perspectives.
In response to concerns over resource depletion, recycling is
commonly seen as an alternative means of meeting societies
demand for metals, at least conceptually. However, the real chal-
lenge with recycling is that there is not enough recycled metals
available to satisfy the demand and hence has several limitations
(Birat et al., 2005). Also, once a product goes into anthropogenic
engine cycles, the residence time needs to be considered (e.g. for
steel products the weighted average life time is 15e17 years (Birat
et al., 2005 and Matsuno et al., 2007)). It should be noted that the
majority of steel production is still derived from new iron ore,
with recycling providing about 30% of new steel production.
A thorough discussion of steel and allied recycling is beyond the
scope of this study, although it remains a critical area of endeavour
and research.

Fig. 7. Trends in GDP per capita (1970e2007) in different regions (US$ 1998).
 M. Yellishetty et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 19 (2011) 78e90
7. Conclusions
This paper has presented and analysed the evidence concern-
ing abiotic resource depletion and life cycle assessment. Although
the data shows that reserves are commonly greater over time,
production is also significantly higher. When considering the
long-term future, however, it is clear that abiotic resource
depletion is indeed a problem, both at the regional and global
level, from a ‘triple bottom line’ perspective. We have also pre-
sented a brief review on different impact assessment models in
the LCIA that are being proposed to evaluate the impacts due to
abiotic resource depletion, which fails to address the problem
holistically and thus putting the credibility of LCA at stake. A
discussion to that effect has been presented arguing that while
evaluating the various impacts due to resource depletion, it is also
important to consider both environmental and socio-economic
aspects. The issue of resource depletion also needs to be consid-
ered in LCAs from the perspective of time, and future conse-
quences of decreased availability of mineral resources for a region.
That way the goals of sustainability can be met by way of meeting
locally defined social, environmental and economic objectives
over the long-term.
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the following people and organisations
in facilitating us with data on number of occasions: Phil Hunt (ISSB
Ltd, UK), Linda Hetherington, Teresa Brown (British Geological
Survey), Peter W. Glazebrook (Rio Tinto), John D. Jorgenson, John F.
Papp (US Geological Survey), Clare Broadbent (IISI) and Margrit
Colenbrander (Australian Steel Institute). The help of Hilary Luxford
and Harpreet S. Kandra is also duly acknowledged. Finally, authors
would also like to thank Donald Huisingh, Mary Ann Curran and the
three anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions and
comments in shaping the paper.
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