Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Centered
Maintenance
(RCM)
Evolution of Maintenance
Reliability
Reliability is a broad term that focuses on the ability of a product
to perform its intended function. Mathematically speaking,
reliability can be defined as the probability that an item will
continue to perform its intended function without failure for a
specified period of time under stated conditions.
Availability
Depends upon Operation uptime and Operating cycle.
Bibliography: Kardec, Alan y Nascif, Julio - Manutenção- Função Estratégica, Editora Qualitymark
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Reliability and Availability
MTBF
Availability =
MTBF + MTTR
Bibliography: Kardec, Alan y Nascif, Julio - Manutenção- Função Estratégica, Editora Qualitymark
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Availability definitions
MTBF = Mean Time Between Failures
MTTR = Mean Time To Repair
MTBM = Mean Time Between Maintenance actions
M = Maintenance Mean Downtime (including preventive
and planned corrective downtime)
Inherent Availability: consider only corrective downtime
Achieved Availability: consider corrective and preventive
maintenance
Operational Availability: ratio of the system uptime and total
time
MTBF
Inherent Availability =
MTBF + MTTR
MTBM
Achieved Availability =
MTBM + M
Uptime
Operational Availability =
Operation Cycle
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Reliability and Availability
250 days 360 days 200 days 120 days = 947 days
Downtime 9d 6 2
180 days 400 days 120 days 233 days = 947 days
Downtime 7 4 3
To improve Availability:
Improve MTBM:
•Reduce Preventive Programs to a minimum, or, have Preventive intervals as well
defined as possible.
•Using Predictive techniques whenever possible
•Implementing Maintenance Engineering (RCM, TPM...)
Minimize M:
•Implementing Maintenance Engineering (Planning, Logistics...)
•Improving personnel technical skills (training)
•Developing Integrated Planning (Mntce+Ops+HSE+Inspection+...)
Bibliography: Kardec, Alan y Nascif, Julio - Manutenção- Função Estratégica, Editora Qualitymark
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Improving Productivity
Bibliography: Kardec, Alan y Nascif, Julio - Manutenção- Função Estratégica, Editora Qualitymark
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Availability benchmark
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Translating percents to daily routine...
Availability % Downtime per year Downtime per month* Downtime per week
90% 36.5 days 72 hours 16.8 hours
95% 18.25 days 36 hours 8.4 hours
98% 7.30 days 14.4 hours 3.36 hours
99% 3.65 days 7.20 hours 1.68 hours
99.5% 1.83 days 3.60 hours 50.4 min
99.8% 17.52 hours 86.23 min 20.16 min
99.9% ("three nines") 8.76 hours 43.2 min 10.1 min
99.95% 4.38 hours 21.56 min 5.04 min
99.99% ("four nines") 52.6 min 4.32 min 1.01 min
99.999% ("five nines") 5.26 min 25.9 s 6.05 s
99.9999% ("six nines") 31.5 s 2.59 s 0.605 s
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Maintenance Programs costs
Corrective (unplanned) 17 to 18
Preventive 11 to 13
NMW Chicago
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Benchmarking balance between Mtce programs
Maintenance activities %
Corrective actions 28
Preventive actions 36
Predictive actions 19
Maintenance studies 17
NMW Chicago
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Definitions
1
λ (t ) =
MTBF
Reliability: R(t)
Let P(t) be the probability of failure between 0 and t; reliability is defined as:
R(t) = 1 – P(t)
Bibliography: Lafraia, João Ricardo - Manual de Confiabilidade, Mantenabilidade e Disponibilidade, Editora Qualitymark
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Some math...
− λt
R (t ) = e
This reinforces the idea that Reliability is function of time, it isn’t a definite
number. So, it’s incorrect to affirm: “This equipment has a 0.97 reliability
factor...”. We should rather say: “This equipment has 97% reliability for
running, let’s say, 240 days...”
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Tricks and tips...
Some upgrades have been made, so failure rate now is 2 per year
(meaning that MTBF has doubled). Which is the reliability for a 100
days run?
λ =2/365 λ =0.0055/day R(100) = e-0.0055x100 = e-0.55 = 0.577 = 57.7%
The probability of having no failure until 100 days is 57.7%.
As seen, doubling MTBF doesn’t double reliability.
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Trick and tips...
1.2
MTBF=50
1 MTBF=100
MTBF=150
MTBF=200
MTBF=250
0.8 MTBF=300
MTBF=365
0.6
0.4 0.368
0.368 0.368 0.368 0.368 0.368 0.368
0.2
0
1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351
Days
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
System in series
1 2 3
Let P1=5%, P2=10% and P3=20% be the failure probability of each component of
this system, in a certain period. Which is the reliability of this system, in series?
This system will run, provided that ALL its components run. So, their reliabilities
are multiplied.
R1 = 1 – P1 = 1 – 0.05 = 0.95
R2 = 1 – P2 = 1 – 0.10 = 0.90
R3 = 1 – P3 = 1 – 0.20 = 0.80
3
Let P1=5%, P2=10% and P3=20% be the failure probability of each component of this
system, in parallel, in a given period. Which is the reliability of the system, in parallel?
This system will run until ALL components fail. In this case, the failure probabilities
are multiplied.
R = 1 – P = 0.999 = 99.9%
System failure probability is less than each component. System reliability is bigger
than each component.
Bibliography: Lafraia, João Ricardo - Manual de Confiabilidade, Mantenabilidade e Disponibilidade, Editora Qualitymark
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Mixed systems
1 2 3
4 5
If P1=10%, P2=5%, P3=15%, P4=2% and P5=20%, which is the system reliability?
R2= 1 – 0.05 = 0.95 R123 = 0.9 x 0.95 x 0.85 = 0.7268 P 123= 0.2733
45
R3= 1 - 0.15 = 0.85
As the plant needs at least 3,600 gpm, to supply this, there will be these cases:
Systems in series
0.9 1 component
2 components
3 components
0.8
4 components
10 components
0.7
1 component
System reliability
0.6
2 components
0.5
3 components
0.4
4 components
0.3
10 components
0.2
0.1
0
0.54
0.64
0.68
0.94
0.5
0.52
0.56
0.58
0.62
0.66
0.72
0.74
0.76
0.78
0.8
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.9
0.92
0.96
0.98
1
0.6
0.7
Component reliability
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Systems in parallel
Systems in parallel
1.2
10 components
1
4 components
3 components
2 components
0.8
System reliability
1 component 1 component
0.6 2 components
3 components
4 components
10 components
0.4
0.2
0
0.52
0.64
0.66
0.5
0.54
0.56
0.58
0.6
0.62
0.68
0.7
0.72
0.74
0.76
0.78
0.8
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.9
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
Component reliability
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
System and Component Redundancy
A B A B
A’ B’ A’ B’
Component Redundancy System Redundancy
Which of these systems would have a better overall reliability
(let’s assume all components have the same reliability R)?
AA’ and BB’ subsystems’ reliability: AB and A’B’ subsystems’ reliability:
1 - (1-R)2 =1 – 1 + 2R – R2 = 2R – R2 R2
System reliability: System reliability:
R component redundancy = (2R-R2)2 R system redundancy = 1 – (1-R2)2
R system redundancy = 1 – 1 + 2R2-R4
R system redundancy = 2R2 - R4
R comp red - R syst red = (2R-R2)2 - (2R2 - R4) = 4R2 – 4R3 + R4 - 2R2 + R4
R comp red - R syst red = 2R4 – 4R3 + 2R2 = 2R2(R2 – 2R + 1) = 2R2(R-1)2≥ 0
R comp red ≥ R syst red
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Active and Passive Redundancy
where: λ1 is the failure rate for each unit when both are working and
λ2 is the failure rate of the surviving unit when the other one has
failed.
If 2λ1 = λ2, then:
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Getting closer to real world...
In a system with active redundancy, reliability of each of the two components for
100 days is R=0.96, when sharing the load. If one compontents fails, the
surviving one will have a 50% increase in its failure rate. Which is it the system
reliability for 100 days?
2 × 0.00041
R (100) = e − 2×0.00041x100 +
× e (
− 0.000615×100
− e −2×0.00041×100 )
2 × 0.00041 − 0.000615
( )
R (100) = e −0.082 + 4 × e −0.0615 − e −0.082
R (100) = 0.9213 + 4 × (0.9404 − 0.9213)
R (100) = 0.9977
If there were no increase in failure rate, system reliability would be 0.9984. Look
like nothing, but this means a 30.5% decrease in system MTBF!!!
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Getting closer to real world...
λ = 1/MTBF
−1 ×10000 1
R (10000) = e 28000
× (1 + 0.9900 × ×10000)
28000
R (10000) = e −0.3571 × (1 + 0.3536)
R (10000) = 0.6997 ×1.3536
R (10000) = 0.9471
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Bathtub Curve
Useful Life
• small number of apparently random failures during working life
(λ constant)
Wear-out
• increasing number of failures with time as components wear out
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Bathtub Curve
Early Life:
• sub-standard materials
• often caused by poor / variable manufacturing and poor
quality control
• prevented by effective quality control, burn-in, and run-in, de-
bugging techniques
• weak components eventually replaced by good ones
• probabilistic treatment less important
Useful Life:
• random or chance failures
• may be caused by unpredictable sudden stress
accumulations outside and inside of the components beyond
the design strength
• over sufficiently long periods frequency of occurrence (λ) is
approximately constant
• failure rate used extensively in Safety & Reliability analyses
Wear-out period:
• symptom of component ageing
• prediction is important for replacement and maintenance
policy
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Different bathtub curves
Common sense tells that the best way to optimize the availability of plants is to
implement some Preventive maintenance.
This is true for some simple pieces of equipment and components, which may have a
prevailing failure mode. Many components in contact with process fluids have a regular
lifespan, as well as cyclic equipment, due to fatigue and corrosion.
But, for many pieces of equipment there’s no connection between reliability and time.
Furthermore, as seen in Reliability curves, defining the optimum interval for Preventive
maintenance may be a hard task. Besides, fixing or even replacing the equipment may
bring you back to Infant Mortality period...
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Preventive maintenance may cause failures earlier....
Time
Meanwhile, for Maintenance, a Turnaround is a huge event, time & resources & costs
consuming, in which ONLY should be done whatever CANNOT be done on the run,
during normal operation.
1) Because Ops don’t have enough confidence that it will be done during routine
maintenance.
2) Because they don’t feel comfortable running with an equipment momentarily without
spare… the same way when we have a flat tire, we just drive with the spare tire
enough to hit the tire repair shop…
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Turnarounds
1) Ops don’t have enough confidence that it will be done during routine maintenance.
To much to
be done Not in excess
during TAR equipments to
be done
during TAR
TAR won’t be
Many able to TAR will carry Good routine
equipments perform all out all services maintenance
left to TAR that has to be needed
done
Many
equipments Unit running
left to well
Routine
Maintenance
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
Turnarounds
2) Because they don’t feel comfortable running with an equipment momentarily without
spare… the same way when we have a flat tire, we just drive with the spare tire
enough to hit the tire repair shop…
If this thing breaks will it If this thing breaks will it If this thing breaks will it No
Yes No
be noticed? hurt someone or the slow or stop production?
environment?
No Yes
Yes
Can preventing it break Can preventing it break Is it cheaper to prevent it Is it cheaper to prevent
reduce the likelihood of reduce the reduce the breaking than the loss of it breaking than to fix it?
multiple failures? risk to the environment production?
and safety?
Prevent it Check to see Prevent it Re-design it Prevent it Let it break Prevent it Let it break
breaking if it is broken breaking breaking breaking