ALucena JGCRI Meeting

Climate
change impacts on

hydropower genera4on in Brazil
André Lucena, Bruno Borba, Roberto Schaeffer,

Alexandre Szklo, Pedro Rochedo, Rafael
Kelman, Pedro Ávila, Bernardo Bezerra
IntroducAon – Brazilian Energy
System
• The Brazilian energy system is highly dependent on
renewable energy, especially hydropower
• Renewables accounted for around 40% of primary energy
supply in 2014
– Hydropower was 80% of all electricity producAon in the country in
average over the last ten years
– 15% of fuel consumpAon in the transportaAon sector was ethanol in
2014
– Wind energy is sAll low, but has increased sharply over the last few
years (currently 4.8% of total installed capacity)
How is that impacted by future climate change?

Hydrological Seasonality in Brazil
(Historical data 1931 – 2009)
Source: Silva (2012)

NaAonal Interconnected
System (SIN)
h[p://www.ons.org.br/
Previous Studies on Climate
Change Impacts-‐AdaptaAon
What’s new?
• Project hired by Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos da
Presidência da República – Colabora4on COPPE-‐PSR
– New scenarios – RCPs 8.5 and 4.5
• MiAgaAon vs. AdaptaAon
– New GCMs (HadGEM and MIROC)
– StochasAc dispatch modeling
• Research quesAons:
– What are the impacts of climate change on the Brazilian
Interconnected System?
– What would be the best alternaAves to compensate
hydropower loss?
• What is the best way to adapt: operaAon vs. expansion?
– To what extent miAgaAon policies may affect these best
alternaAves?
Methodology and Results
Climate Change Data
• RCPs
– 4.5
– 8.5
• GCMs
– HadGEM
– MIROC
• Dowscaling
– ETA: INPE (Chou et al., 2014)
• Hydrological Model
– SMAP (water balance model): University of Ceará
(MarAns et at., 2014)
Projected Riverflow
Brazilian River Basins
Brazilian River Basins – Paraná
Natural inflow to Itaipu hydropower plant – RCP 8.5

HadGEM MIROC
Brazilian River Basins – TocanAns Araguaia
Natural inflow to Tucuruí hydropower plant – RCP 8.5

HadGEM MIROC

Brazilian River Basins – São Francisco
Natural inflow to Sobradinho hydropower plant – RCP 8.5

HadGEM MIROC

Energy Modeling Approach
GCM – Dowscaling – Hydrology Model
Scenario Premisses (RCP 4.5 and 8.5)

195 riverflow series
OperaAon Model Opera4on/ Expansion Model

SDDP Expansion MESSAGE-‐Brazil
(PSR) (COPPE)
OperaAon AdaptaAon
Opera4on/
Impacts/ Expansion
through
adaptaAon expansion
•Hydro generaAon scenarios •Capacity expansion

•Marginal cost of operaAon •Investment costs
•Deficit probability •Second order effects


(PSR) (COPPE)
OperaAon AdaptaAon
Opera4on/
Impacts/ Expansion
through
adaptaAon expansion

Baseline Scenarios
Baseline scenarios: RCP comparison – Electricity
160.0
Premisses:
140.0
120.0 RCP 8.5
•BAU expansion – no
100.0
explicit miAgaAon
GW year
80.0
assumed
60.0
40.0
RCP 4.5
•Energy efficiency
20.0
•Lower fossil expansion
0.0 •100$/tCO2 Carbon tax
Base Base Base Base Base Base Base Base Base Base Base Base Base Base
4.5 8.5 4.5 8.5 4.5 8.5 4.5 8.5 4.5 8.5 4.5 8.5 4.5 8.5 aoer 2030 (ETP, 2015)
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Hydro Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar



(PSR) (COPPE)
OperaAon AdaptaAon
Opera4on/
Impacts/ Expansion
through
adaptaAon expansion

Results OperaAon:
Risk of shortage
HadGEM MIROC
RCP 8.5
RCP 4.5
Results – OperaAon Costs
RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5

1400
1200
1000
Billion USD
800
600
400
200
0
Base HadGEM MIROC Base HadGEM MIROC


(PSR) (COPPE)
OperaAon AdaptaAon
Opera4on/
Impacts/ Expansion
through
adaptaAon expansion

Results – AdaptaAon
RCP 8.5
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
GW med
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
MIROC
Base
MIROC
Base
MIROC
Base
MIROC
Base
MIROC
Base
MIROC
Base
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
HadGEM
HadGEM
HadGEM
HadGEM
HadGEM
HadGEM
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Hidro Carvão Gás Óleo Combustível Diesel Nuclear Biomassa Eólica Solar
Results – AdaptaAon
RCP 4.5
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
GW med
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
MIROC
Base
MIROC
Base
MIROC
Base
MIROC
Base
MIROC
Base
Base
MIROC
Base
MIROC
HadGEM
HadGEM
HadGEM
HadGEM
HadGEM
HadGEM
HadGEM
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Hidro Carvão Gás Óleo Combustível Diesel Nuclear Biomassa Eólica Solar
Results – AdaptaAon Costs
• Accumulated invesAment costs up to 2040:
– HadGEM
• RCP 4.5: USD 79 billion
– MIROC
Discussion
• Detailed dispatch modeling requires detailed
hydrological modeling
• OperaAonal impacts can be severe and costly if there is
no adaptaAon through system expansion
• MiAgaAon policies do impact opAmal adaptaAon

strategies
– AdapAng to a reduced hydropower availability may further
increase Brazil’s emissions if no other acAons are taken
– AdaptaAon can be achieved by fossil fuels or by a
combinaAon of energy efficiency, renewable energy, etc.
LAMP Climate Policy Scenarios
Electricity GeneraAon
2000
1800
2030
1600
1400
1200
TWh/year
1000
800
600
400
200
0
POLES
POLES
POLES
POLES
POLES
GCAM
MESSAGE-‐Brazil
GCAM
MESSAGE-‐Brazil
GCAM
MESSAGE-‐Brazil
GCAM
MESSAGE-‐Brazil
GCAM
MESSAGE-‐Brazil
TIAM-‐ECN
TIAM-‐ECN
TIAM-‐ECN
TIAM-‐ECN
TIAM-‐ECN
EPPA
EPPA
EPPA
EPPA
EPPA
Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix
Core baseline $10 CO2 price $50 CO2 price 20% abatement (FF&I) 50% abatement (FF&I)
2000 Hydro Oil Coal Coal w/CCS Gas Gas w/CCS Nuclear Biomass Biomass w/CCS Solar Wind Other
1800
2050
1600
1400
1200
TWh/year
1000
800
600
400
200
0
GCAM
POLES
POLES
POLES
POLES
POLES
MESSAGE-‐Brazil
GCAM
MESSAGE-‐Brazil
GCAM
MESSAGE-‐Brazil
GCAM
MESSAGE-‐Brazil
GCAM
MESSAGE-‐Brazil
TIAM-‐ECN
TIAM-‐ECN
TIAM-‐ECN
TIAM-‐ECN
TIAM-‐ECN
EPPA
EPPA
EPPA
EPPA
EPPA
Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix
Core baseline $10 CO2 price $50 CO2 price 20% abatement (FF&I) 50% abatement (FF&I)
Hydro Oil Coal Coal w/CCS Gas Gas w/CCS Nuclear Biomass Biomass w/CCS Solar Wind Other
Next Steps
• Second stage of LAMP – impacts/adaptaAon
– To what extent a more detailed dispatch analysis
is relevant for adaptaAon-‐miAgaAon assessment?
– What are the uncertainAes related to the
miAgaAon-‐adaptaAon interacAons?
• What is the role of Brazil in a given climate goal?
• How will adaptaAon take place in such circumstances?
• JGCRI – impact analysis
• Several IAMs looking at miAgaAon-‐adaptaAon
– GCAM, TIAM-‐ECN, IMAGE, EPPA, MESSAGE-‐Brazil

Thank you
andrelucena@ppe.ufrj.br

ALucena JGCRI Meeting

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ALucena JGCRI Meeting

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Climate

change impacts on

André Lucena, Bruno Borba, Roberto Schaeﬀer,

How is that impacted by future climate change?

Source: Silva (2012)

Scenario Premisses (RCP 4.5 and 8.5)

OperaAon Model Opera4on/ Expansion Model

•Hydro generaAon scenarios •Capacity expansion

Scenario Premisses (RCP 4.5 and 8.5)

OperaAon Model Opera4on/ Expansion Model

•Hydro generaAon scenarios •Capacity expansion

Hydro Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar

Scenario Premisses (RCP 4.5 and 8.5)

OperaAon Model Opera4on/ Expansion Model

•Hydro generaAon scenarios •Capacity expansion

RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5

Scenario Premisses (RCP 4.5 and 8.5)

OperaAon Model Opera4on/ Expansion Model

•Hydro generaAon scenarios •Capacity expansion

• MiAgaAon policies do impact opAmal adaptaAon

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