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Presentation for ESDM PV Workshop p

July 15th, 2008 KANEKA CORPORATION

What is solar PV system


*PV : Photovoltaic Photon + voltaic produce electricity from sunlight Off-grid Application: SHS ( g pp (Solar Home System) y )

What is solar PV system


Off-grid Application: PV Hybrid system (PV + Diesel genset)

What is solar PV system


On-grid Application: Residential PV system

What is solar PV system


On-grid Application: Large-scale PV system

PV growth worldwide
Worldwide PV Production
2,600 2,400 2 400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Japan: 978 Others: 714 O Europe: 657 USA: 202 World total: 2,500

Japan USA Europe Others Total

(Source: RTS Corporation)

PV growth worldwide
Cumulative worldwide PV installation
1600.0 Australia Switzerland Germany 1200.0 Spain France 1000.0 Italy Japan 800.0 Netherland USA 600.0 1400.0

400.0

200.0

0.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

(Source: RTS Corporation, Solarbuzz)

PV growth worldwide g
Worldwide PV installations by market in 2007
Rest of World, 226MW, 8% USA, 226MW, 8% Rest of Europe, 170MW, 6% Germany, 1,328MW, % 47% Japan, Japan 226MW, 8%

Spain, 650MW, 23%

(Source: Solarbuzz)

PV system cost (10thousands yen/kWp)


400 370 350

PV power g p generation cost trend


- Japan case System price per kWp Power generation cost per kWh

Cumulative PV capacity C l i i (MW)


1,600 1,422 1 422 1,400

300 260/kWh 200 200 170 150

Cumulative PV capacity (Total) Cumulative PV capacity(Residential)

1,200 1 200 1,132 1,119 1,000

250

Subsidy: 900K Yen/kWp

860

859 800

637 120 140/kWh 104 102 452 84 209 75 71 330 280 189

620

600

Subsidy: 20K Yen/kWp


93 65/kWh 430 69 67 66 400

100

120/kWh 82/kWh 72/kWh 71/kWh 133 91 60 57 43 33 13 6 1995 1996 1997 1998

50 24 1993 31 2 1994

200 46/kWh 49/kWh 48/kWh 46/kWh 115 58/kWh 52/kWh 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year
(Source: Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan)

PV incentives

(Source: JPEA)

Feed-In Tariff
Case of Germany and Spain
Until 2007/12 FIT Size EUR/kWh 30kW Rooftop Germany Free l d F land Period 30100kW 100 1,000kW 1,000kW 0.4921 0.4682 0.4630 0.3796 0 3796 20years 6.5% 6 5% Free l d F land Period 5% Rooftop Until 2008/12 FIT Size EUR/kWh 30kW 30100kW 100 1,000kW 1,000kW 0.4675 0.4448 0.4399 0.4399 0.3549 0 3549 20years 6.5% 6 5% 5% Application Decrease from the past year Application Decrease from the past year

Application

Until 2008/9 FIT Size EUR/kWh 100kW 100kW 10,000kW 10,000kW 0.44 0.4175

Draft Decrease from the past year Application Rooftop Size 20kW 20 200kW 20200kW 200W Free land FIT EUR/kWh 0.44 0.39 0.33 0.31 up to 1,200MW/25years p , y Decrease from the past year

All application Spain

Cap/Period p

p , y up to 1,200MW/25years

Cap/Period p

Case study: Investment to large-scale PV system


In I case of c-Si PV sysem: f Si
Free land installation in Germany System cost (I) Payment Cash Preferential loan (Payback period: 15yrs/Annual interest: 3.5%) Payment total (II) Annual expenditure Repair cost Insurance cost Miscellaneous Annual expenditure total (III) Amount repaid Loan repayment Annual expenditure x 20yrs (inflation rate 2.5%) Amount repaid total (IV) Revenue Income from electric power selling ( (Installation on March, FIT: EUR0.355/kWh for 20yrs) y ) Interest income from electric power selling amount Revenue total (V) Calculation of profits and losses Revenue in 20yrs y Investment amount Asset management ratio Asset management yield EUR/Wp 3.619 EUR/200kWp 723,702

0.724 2.895 3.619

144,740 578,962 723,702

0.023 0.013 0.012 0.048

4,600 2,600 2,400 9,600

Revenue is calculated based on: -Generated output power is estimated as 900kWh/kWp/year in Germany.

3.854 1.226 5.080

770,829 245,232 1,016,061

6.477 0.325 6.802

1,295,475 64,951 1,360,425

1.722 0.724 2.379 4.43%

344,364 , 144,740

(Remarks) These are just estimated figures for reference and are not guaranteed ones.

Case study: Investment to large-scale PV system


In case of c Si PV sysem: c-Si
Free land installation in Germany System cost (I) Payment Cash Preferential loan (Payback period: 15yrs/Annual interest: 3.5%) Payment total (II) Annual expenditure Repair cost Insurance cost Miscellaneous Annual expenditure total (III) Amount repaid Loan repayment Annual expenditure x 20yrs ( p y (inflation rate 2.5%) ) Amount repaid total (IV) Revenue Income from electric power selling ( (Installation on March, FIT: EUR0.355/kWh for 20yrs) , y ) Interest income from electric power selling amount Revenue total (V) Calculation of profits and losses Revenue in 20yrs Investment amount Asset management ratio Asset management yield EUR/Wp 3.619 EUR/200kWp 723,702

0.724 2.895 3.619

144,740 578,962 723,702

0.023 0.013 0.012 0.048

4,600 2,600 2,400 9,600

Revenue is calculated based on: -Generated output power is estimated as 1,044kWh/kWp/year like Indonesia.

3.854 1.226 5.080

770,829 245,232 1,016,061

7.514 0.377 7.890

1,502,751 , , 75,303 1,578,053

2.810 0.724 3.883 7.02%

561,992 144,740

(Remarks) These are just estimated figures for reference and are not guaranteed ones.

Case study: Investment to large-scale PV system


In case of a Si PV sysem: a-Si
Free land installation in Germany System cost (I) Payment Cash Preferential loan (Payback period: 15yrs/Annual interest: 3.5%) Payment total (II) Annual expenditure Repair cost Insurance cost Miscellaneous Annual expenditure total (III) Amount repaid Loan repayment Annual expenditure x 20yrs ( p y (inflation rate 2.5%) ) Amount repaid total (IV) Revenue Income from electric power selling ( (Installation on March, FIT: EUR0.355/kWh for 20yrs) , y ) Interest income from electric power selling amount Revenue total (V) Calculation of profits and losses Revenue in 20yrs Investment amount Asset management ratio Asset management yield EUR/Wp 3.619 EUR/200kWp 723,702

0.724 2.895 3.619

144,740 578,962 723,702

0.023 0.013 0.012 0.048

4,600 2,600 2,400 9,600

Revenue is calculated based on: -Generated output power is estimated as 1,191kWh/kWp/year like Indonesia.

3.854 1.226 5.080

770,829 245,232 1,016,061

8.572 0.429 9.001

1,714,345 , , 85,867 1,800,212

3.921 0.724 5.418 8.82%

784,151 144,740

(Remarks) These are just estimated figures for reference and are not guaranteed ones.

Greater actually generated watt-p watt-power compared to c-Si PV modules p cComparison Data of Generated Watt - Power

NEDO Ritsumeikan demonstration module field testing Int. PVSEC-11, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan,1999 Location : Kusatsu Shiga, Japan Direction : South, Angle 15.3

Superior performance under high-temperature highmakes real difference in actual generated watt-power wattComparison of total generated watt-power per month
T Total monthly generated watt-power per 1kWp[k r kWh] (Temp: )

160
c-Si Si

30
Poly-Si Kaneka a-Si

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

25 20 15 10 5 0

Temp( ) p(

11

12

NEDO Ritsumeikan demonstration module field testing Int. PVSEC-11, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan,1999 Location : Kusatsu Shiga, Japan Direction : South, Angle 15.3 *Temperature data: Location=Ohtsu Shiga, Source=Japan Meteorological Agency

1999

1998

Superior performance under high-temperature highRelative Value of Pmax (25= 100) f = 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 c-Si a-Si Module Temperature (

1) Smaller Temperature Coefficient.


Temp. coefficient(a) : a-Si = -0.26%/

c-Si = -0.5%/
Effective performance of conversion efficiency = Conv.Effic. X { 1+ a x (module temp. - 25 ) }

2) Annealing Effect
Characteristic Only Amorphous Silicon has.
Amorphous silicon regains its efficiency by A h ili i i ffi i b temperature rising with its so-called Annealing Effect.

Actual Generated Output Power of PV System at Thailand p y System Overview of SERT System at Phitsanulok, Thailand
Hybird c-Si: 2.88kW

a-Si:3.67kW

p-Si:3.66kW

Actual Output Power of PV System at SERT, Thailand SERT


200 180 160 DC Out tput Pow wer ( kW Wh/kWp) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
a Si a-Si p-Si Hyb c-Si IRR.

200 180 160 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 k kWh/m2 140

Month in 2006 A nualP ow er G enerati D C (kW h/kW ) on: Solar H yb c-S i p-S i knanaka a-S i S 1270 1208 1385 From Jan to S ep i 2006 n

Irradiation 1203kWh

Output power simulation of 10kWp PV system at Jakarta

Output power simulation of 10kWp PV system at Jakarta


(kWh)
1,200 1,000 , 800 600 400 200 0 Irradiation(kWh/m2) A-Si: AC power (kWh) P-Si: AC power (kWh) Air Temp (deg C) Temp.(deg

(deg C)
30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Jan 104 776 721 27

Feb 114 893 792 27

Mar 137 953 28

Apr 130 902 28

May 133 918 28

Jun 126 875 28

Jul 134 926 28

Aug 141 976 28

Sep 136 941 28

Oct 133 923 28

Nov 108 827 744 28

Dec 112 849 770 28

1,097 1,041 1,059 1,007 1,067 1,133 1,093 1,065

Annual output power by a-Si/10kWp system : 11,906kWh (+14% than p-Si) Annual output power by p-Si/10kWp system : 10,441kWh
(Remarks) (1) These are just estimated figures for reference and are not guaranteed ones. (2) AC power of 10kWp system of a-Si PV module and p-Si PV module. (3) Installation point: Jakarta, Indonesia. (4) Installation angle, direction: 10degree, North. (5) Inverter efficiency: 92% (6) Annual irradiation is estimated as 1,507/kWh/m2.