The Mathematics of Gambling Backgammon Tournament Play: Game Theory Solves Experts’ Puzzle by Edward O. Thorp Backgammon continually puz- zles the players with now situa: Lions vo judge. This often leads to dobate, even among experts. It is generally not realized that many backgammon problems, even those that puzzle experts, can be an: swered exactly through mathemat: ics. I give an example this month, taken from the new backgammon magazine, Gammon. Here is the problem Gammon put to several experts: Before we discuss the problem itself, you need to know that be cause of the scoring. the strategy in match or tournament play is of ten different from that in money play. The situation is like that in bridge. where different plays may be correct in the same desl, depend- ing on whether rubber bridge scor- ing, duplicate bridge scoring, or in ternational match point scoring (IMP) is used. Here is the simplest and best known example. Suppose Even the Experts Disagree ‘This situation occurred during the open division of the Las Vegas Amateurs, Arthur Dickman was olaying Sandy Cariston. Both are top professionals, At this position, Dickman (black), who was bohind 13-12 in the *S-point maicn, considered doubling. Would you double If you were Diack? Horo’e What the Experts Said Billy Eisenberg: Yes, but only be. ~ cause of the score. It's tough, but black’s chance to win the match will never be better. Black has gammon possibilities doesn’t takes, Chuck Papazian: No! 12.14 isn't sa) bad. Only 2 2%-1 underdog. And if Diack nits but doesn’t get the gam: mon, black is still only 14.13. It's in- sanity to double The rolls a 4.1 ne| \ jouble and doesn't hit. he's | 1214 in a 1Spoint match end only | about 25 to win. And, of course, white| Barclay Cooke: No. | wouldn't want to put the match on a 25-11 shot against me. Even at 12-14, its not over. Roger Low: It depends on whether of not black is going to roll a 4 P.S: Dickman didn’t double, but he didn’t rolia4 either. And Carlston eventual ly won the mateh. 62 GAMBLING TIMES © 1979 by Edward 0. Thorp you are behind 13 to 14 in 15-point, match, Then you should double at your first opportunity, even if you have the poorer game. Why? IT you don’t double. you win the match either by gammoning in this geme or by winning both one point in this game and winning the next game. Tf you do double and your opponent accepts, then you only have to win this game to win the match. So you are better off. If you do double and he drops instead, then the score becomes 14 to 14, and you only have to win the next game to win that match. You again are better off Suppose you neglected to double. early the game with the score 19-14, and you now find that you have a ‘'good” chance to gammon ‘your opponent, Should you double? Maybe not. Let p, be the probabili- ty you will win a single game, and lot'p, be the probability that you will gammon or backgammon your ‘opponent in this game. Let w be the probability that you will win the next game. (For two players of equal skill, we might expect w= 2.) If you do not double, then the prob: abilities are p» thet you win the match in this game, p; that the score is 14-14 after this game, and 1 — py ~ pathat you lose this game ‘and the match. The total probabili- ty that you win the match ie py + byw. If you do double and your op- Ponent folds, the score becomes 14-14, and the probability is w thatyou win the match. If you double and your opponent accepts, this game decides the match, and the probability you win is p; + pe If you double, your opponent will act to minimize the chance you win the match. Therefore, he accepts if >, + Bede, folds if p, + paw, and it doesn’t matter if p, + pj=w. Therefore, if you double, your chanee to win the match is the less- er ofp, + pp and w, or min(p, + Be» w) You will double if this is better than p, + pw, you will not double if this is worse than p, + pjw, and it doesn't matter when mintp, + Po, w)™pe + pyte. ‘The asterisks mark the best plays If you have good estimates for p,. Pe, and w, then you can compute what to do. ‘The dramatic difference between this situation and money play is ‘when you're behind: whereas, in money play, you should rarely dou- ble when you're behind. Note: An exception, pointed out by Bill Granoff, is the “Kander paradox,” which may arise when the Jacoby rule is in effect. The Jacoby rule is an option which is ‘sometimes used to speed up match play. It prohibits either player from winning more than one point ina game, unless the cube has been ‘tamed. Here is a simplified exam- ple to indicate how the Kander par- adox works. Suppose the Jacoby rule is being used, the cube has not been turned, and that it is black’s Table 1 illustrates this point. turn to roll. Suppose the probabili- sae | ee yee Sees Scat) meow | sare of Cone ° ] wee | ctenee| fovtre totes ° |Past | cme] fovtre anend eso | nichee| oe fvtre ne evto | = | 26 outs wm | a foy'te tonninat anend. SRL as os = | = When to double f you tral 1316 ina 15-point match. In the car- “ent game. p; is your chance to win one point. and ps is the chance Jou will gammon oF bankgammon your opponent ‘sin a subsequent geme is. The table shows your chance to win he match ia if you don't double, (if you double and opponent jour chanceto ‘lds or cif you double and opponent accepts. Opponent picks Ib ‘your corresponding chance to win the ‘atch with these (best) choices by you and your opponent. Om me _Ouins. ats nye pts ey? | dey/t + Py 2 © Osea, Oreiae Table 2 Results of trve disgram analysis of experts’ problem. where the sequent game iss ~ g foreach player and g that exch player gets ‘probabilky black wins a single game isp» a gammon isp and winning single point in any sub- backgammon is 0 The chance more then a single point. SEPTEMBER, 1979 63ty black will win a simple game is .05, 2 gammon is .40, and a back- gammon is 0. Then black is the underdog, with a 45 probability of ‘winning one point and 0.55 or los- ing one point for an expected gain of 0.10 points. Suppose that the probability that white wins a sin- gle game is 0.55, and there is no chance for him to win a gaminon or backgammon (eg., black has al- Nes *Craviord rule prevents opponent from doubling in next gama, Winning scores Inied ax 15 may actually be more ifthe wiener | scores gammen or bockgammon. 64 GAMBLING TIMES ready taken a man off). If black doubles, his expected gain is 2X(I X05 £2. 40 — 1X .55}=0.60. ‘Therefore, that act of doubling con- verts black from underdog to fa- vorite. I understand that Kander discovered and correctly applied this idea in the course of a game. We now return to the experts’ problem, Make these assumptions: + Let p be the (unlmown) prob- ° . ° © wine antes ° ° oe oe ice ron cuss 9: @ comms wo O sorte weiny/te st ~ 9 By? ability that black wins this specific geme, with p; the probability it isa single game, p, the probability that it is a double game (gammon), and assume that p,, the probability of @ triple geme (backgammon), is negligible. Thus, p=p, + p. and Pa=0. + Suppose the probability that either black or white wins any giv- Continued on page 86 qn ‘Owes aspyep O/9)/2 appre ‘S9At 18:14, white has a alight advantage from his free pase, go ho hag slightly more than a 50 percent hace to win (ve text! The’ eflect s small end we have neglected i sits | ones | Jo) @ vias ance an | ecane eee © wine mat nacre 1685 Ovim ae an seltong = 8ERNIE KAUFMAN’S new pro football selection ser- vice that offers you: 1. The strongest. sclections in the nation! (Five year documented won-losi record of 64% winners), 2. The only legitimate sta- tistical analysis of pro football compiled by one of the nation’s leading sports handi-cappers. 3. The “BOOKIE DE- STROYER” weekly sletter. Subscription rates: $ 20.00 per wook 3 75.00 per 5 weeks $100.00 per 10 weeks Cashier's check or money order should be received by ‘Tuesday to insure arrival of the newsletter by Friday anywhere in the U.S.A. or Canada Ernie Koulman P.O. Box St Redonda Beach, CA 99277 Okay Ernie, send me the weekly “Beokie ‘Desteayer.” Tom endlos s Name Address Gy State tip ace USE INVESTMENT OF THE SEASON MATH OF GAMBLING Continued from page 6! en subsequent game is 4. This is not unreasonable in light of the match score and the acknowledged skill of the players. Suppose the probability that black or white gets a gammon or backgammon in any subsequent game is g T am told that a reasonable guess for z is, 0.07, s0 about 14 percent of the games might be expected to end in gammon or backgammon. Then !% — g is the probability tht either black or white wins only one point ina subsequent game. We now calculate the match chances for black for the three eas: A. Black does not double. B. Black doubles and white ae- cepts. C. Black doubles and white folds, Case C is easy. The score becomes 13, and the players have equal skill, 20 they each have a 50 per- cent chance to win the match. Case A js illustrated by a “tree diagram.” This is a standard tool in game theory. and it got itsname because of the way it looks. Here is how it. works. Start at the upper left. “dot” or “vertex,” which i labelled 12-13, the current matck score. The upper branch going to the right is labelled p, and repre- seats the probability that bleck gammons white in the current game. The next vertex is labelled 414-13, the score after the gam- mon. The asterisk on the 14 means that the Crawford rule is in effect: “Crawford rule: A rule invented by the late John Crawford, used in tournaments, under which a player is prevented from offering a double in the first game after his oppo- nent reaches 2 score one short of the number of points to whieh the match is being played.” (From Phillip Martyn on Beckgemmon, pago 186.) Therefore, white cannot Gouble on the next game. The up- per branch continues with the out come 15-13, which corresponds to the next game, and thus the match, being won by black. The branch is labelled ¥% because we have as- sumed that this is the probability black wins the next game. Now multiply the two probabilities and ‘4 to get py2, the probability that black wins the match by this series of events. The rest of the die: gram in interpreted similarly. ‘The rightmost two columns give the probabilities that black or white wins the match via the cor- responding series of branches. Adding up these probabilities, we find that the probability that black wins, if he doesn’t double, is % + D/A + pe2 — g py2 and the prob: ability that white wins.in this case is 4 — pit — p22 + gp Note for case A: At the point of the tree where it is 13-14 and black doubles, we have given the chane of winning the match es /s each for black and white. Actually. as we noted there, white has a slight ad- vantage and here's why. When black doubles at his first oppor tunity, the game will, in generel. already be slightly unequal. Por in- stance, white may go first and roll something good like 3-1 or some- thing poor like 2-1. Or black may g0 first, and by the time he can double on his second roll. the game may have become noticeably un qual. ‘To illustrate, suppose that half the time black has 48 percent win probability by the time he ean double and white accepts, and the other half of the time he has a 52 percent win probability and white folds, whence the score goes to 14-14 with equal chances for each to win the match. Then black hes probability 8%2 + 50%2=49% to win the match. That's how the “free pass” gives white a little edge. The “Holland rule” has been usod in some tournaments to offset this. It specifies that in the game following the “Crawford game,” the player who is behind in the match must wait three turns before he can double. Since the geme is likely to have become oven more unequal by then, this increases white's edge. In the experts’ prob- lem, the Crawford rule was in ef- fect, whereas the Jacoby and Hol- land rules were not. ‘To see whether black should dou- ble, we now have to examine case B and seo whether it gives him a bet: ter chance to win. Here we find that if black doubles and white ae-cepts, then black wins with prob- ability 3p4 + p. — g py and white wine with probability J — SpA — pe + B Di. Table 3 summarizes our results so far. We see that white should ac- cept a double if doing so decreases the black win probability, that is if g p2 Now the tor tal win probability for black in the current game is p=p, + ps and it seems clear that p<, Le., that black is the underdog in the cur- rent game. But ‘4p, + ps means + p: — & Pe. since 3p/4 g p/2is smaller than p; + :. Therefore, white should accept a double if it is offered. Next question: Should black of fer a double? He should if it in- creases his win probability, that is if Sp/4 + ps — g py2>% + pid + p/ — g p72. This is equivalent to tI = gip/2 + py2>4 or 1 = lip, + pj or (l — g) p>. But p<'s, so black should not double. If black does double, how much does he lose? His probability of winning the match drops by (34 + DA + p/2 — ¢ p22) — Gp 4 + pe — pf2 — p22 + airs (5 — ph + gp, — ps2 re, if, for example, the prob: ability of black winning the current game were /4, then black’s prob: bability to win the match decreases by more than 1/2. Since it was pretty small to begin with, this is a major reduction in black’s chances, and doubling is gross error. ‘There are many amazing things about this analysis. First. the anal- ysis itself is mathematically simple you may not agree if you are not skilled in this area). Second, the result is a surprise. It shows that the answer to the experts’ puzzle isn’t even close. Furthermore, the probabilities of gammon or back- gammon in this or subsequent ames of the match have little ef fect on the answer. All we need to know to get the answer is that black is the underdog in the cur- rent game and that the two players are of (approximately) equal skill. In the problem, Chuck Papazian said that black would be 2 2¥4:1 underdog if the match score be- came 12-14. This is not correct. 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Get the Facts The 1979 Baseball Handiespping Guide anc the Basobell Fact Sheet provide all the information you need to be 2 winner *Team records: dayinight, artt Clelinataral eurtaces, va lofts & Fignts (nome & away), V8. each Borsa | "Starting Pitcher's Records: won! | oss in games thay started | (rome & away) vs. each oppo: | | rent. “A SPECIAL section on key match- ups. © $60 fora season subscription to Baseball Fact Sheet and a all FREE copy of the 1979 B Handicapping Guid © $5 lor the 1979 Baseball Han- | dleapping Guide. | | Name acoress:__ a nye Make ali checks o¢ money orcore Bayable to Kenny Trainor 1202 St Paul St—Balt. Mo. 21202 96 GAMBLING TIMES PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS Continued from page 74 sion, the bettor will be ahead. So T can afford to increase my bets and take my chance that the streak will continue. If I win, I win big. And, if 1 lose, well, T haven’t really lost anything, because I was “playing with the house’s money.”” Comment: One silliness leads to another. You are never playing “with the house's money,"" unless you stole it or are one of the casi- ho owners. Every time you make a bet, you are risking your own money The odds of any game ere calew lated by totalling the number of times you can expect to win and offsetting them with the number of times you ean expect to lose. The excess of the loss, over # period of time, constitutes the house per centage. In craps, once again, the advantage is 1.4 percent. New, if you don't think of your wins as committed to offsetting your loss: es, but instead think of them as profit—alea. house money—which You can bet as wildly es you want without risk, the house percentage will no longer be 1.4 percent. This figuro was achioved by balancing wins and losses. Remove the wins. and the house percentage becomes astronomical. You can't have it both ways. Your wins are calculated as part of the whole game end are part of what keeps the house percentage low. Or else they are considered separately as profit. in which case the house teke on all the rest of your bets (nothing but losses and simply goes off the the number tting with -y"” balances the num- ber of times you aren't. In the long. run, all you accomplish by using a progressive system is to increase the amount wagered, thus increas- ing the total the house collects as its “vigorish.”” The casinos know this very well. 1 often wonder whether they don’t deliberately contribute articles and books which promote progressive systems, precisely because they know that they will make more off tho players who use them. A pit ‘As the chart show of times 7 boss once told me that the players they like the least are those who grind it out with unit bets. “We are never going to get rich off those players,” he sai ‘As a typical player once said to me, "I didn’t come all the way here to Las Vegas to sit hour after hour making unit bots, even if that is the best way. I came out here for action!” Temperament is important. ‘There are those who would rath: ec have an occasional giant win, which thes: will remember all their lives, even though they may realize that such wins are more than nib- bled away in between times. The excitement of the big parlay when everything is breaking right, the sense of near omnipotence, and the feeling that one is really a member of a special breed is what makes it all worthwhile. This is what they work for, and wait for, and dream about. Otherwise, they wouldn't come. Nobody should begrudge them their own particular brand of pleasure. After all, the name of the game is enjoy. May the Lords of Chance bless them. We know the casino certainly does. g' oe MATH OF GAMBLING Continued from page 87 where the chance that black gets @ gammon is p, and a backgammon is py. The advantage to white at 13-14 due to the free pass is d. As an example, take d=02, p,=.06 and p;=.02, Then black's chance to win the match is 0.2516, and the corresponding odds are 2.9746:1. 1 think that plausible choices for d. Pz, and p; will gonorally give odds much closer to 3:1 than to 22:1 However, with no Crewford rale, a tree analysis gives black’s chance to win the match as 44 + (p, + pi. If ps + p,=142.07, then this is exactly 2%:1. If pp + 08 black’s chance is about . Thus, when Papazian an- swered the question, he may have believed that the Crawford rule was not in effect. Don Smolen in dependently pointed this out. ‘The general theory of doubling in match play, of which this column is an example. is complex. I hope to present it in later columns. I thank Bill Granoff for suggesting several improvements in this article.