Conditional Probability Assignment

Example 1: Weather records show that on a given type of day, there is a 30% chance of rain, a 40% chance of it being windy, and a 46% chance that it either rains or is windy. Exercise 1: If you get up on a day as in Example 1, and find that it is raining, what would be your new estimate for the chance of it being windy during the day? ( ) ( ) ( ( ) ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ( ) ( ) )

Exercises 2-4 refer to the experiment of rolling a fair die twice. All of the 36 outcomes in the sample space S are equally likely. E: The first face is odd. F: The sum of the faces is greater than 8. G: The sum of the faces is even.
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Exercise 2: Compute P(E|F) and P(F|E).

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Exercise 3: Compute P(E|G) and P(G|E). ( ) ( ( ) ) ( ) ( ( ) )

Exercise 4: Compute P(F|G) and P(G|F). ( ) ( ( ) ) ( ) ( ( ) )

Exercises 5-7 refer to the experiment of rolling a fair die twice. All of the 36 possible outcomes are equally likely. E: The first face is odd. F: The sum of the faces is greater than 8. G: The sum of the faces is even. Your work on Exercises 2-4 of the section Definitions will be helpful for these exercises. Refer to the sample space, S, given before Exercise 2. Exercise 5: Are E and F independent? No, E and F are dependent. Method 1: ( ( ) ) ( ( ) ) ( )

Exercise 6: Are E and G independent? Yes, E and G are independent. Method 1: ( ( ) ) ( ( ) ) ( )

Exercise 7: Are F and G independent? No, F and G are dependent. Method 1: ( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) Exercise 8: You are going to pick a random sample of three parts from a large box of parts, 5% of which are defective. After each draw you note whether or not the selected part is defective

and then replace it. Hence, there is a 5% chance of getting a defective part on each of the three draws and the results of the draws are independent of each other. (i) What is the probability that you get three non-defective parts? (ii) Explain how you used independence in your answer to Part i. (i) P ( D1 ) = .05 = Getting a defective part on 1st draw P ( D1C ) = 1- P(D1) = .95 = Not getting a defective part on 1st draw P ( D2 ) = .05 = Getting a defective part on 2nd draw P ( D2C ) = 1- P(D2) = .95 = Not getting a defective part on 2nd draw P ( D3 ) = .05 = Getting a defective part on 3rd draw P ( D3C ) = 1- P(D3) = .95 = Not getting a defective part on 3rd draw P(D1C D2C D3C ) = P(.95)* P(.95)*P(.95) = .86

(ii) Each of the outcomes was independent of each other since the defective part was put back into the box. 5% was the chance of getting a defective part therefore 95% was the chance of getting a working part. (.05 +.95=1) Since the events were independent then I multiplied .95 three times to get the answer.