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    Binomial Distributions - Crawshaw & Chambers

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    yuent4

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 10
    ‘A random variable R takes the integer (@) Wit down the probability diab fhjuce 1dr each ith probebllty Hon ot yn ind the bean and vatance of (0) Find the probability distibation of pgack of 15 cards bearing the numbers 1 {H€SUM Of Swo Independent observations eee es DISTRIBUTIONS a Bo cera SPECIAL DISCRETE fyeieitmenee Mn retin PROBABILITY *])]@[¢ — Consider an experiment which has two possible outcomes, one ‘which may be termed ‘success’ end the other ‘allure’ A binomial situation aries when n independent trials of the experiment are performed, for example tose acoin 6 times; consider obtaining a head on a single toss as ‘a suocess, and obtaining a tail asa failure; throw a dio 10 times; consider obtaining a 6 on s single throw ae success, and not obtaining a 6 as a failure. A coin is biased so that the probability of obtaining a head is 2. The coin is tossed four times. Find the probability of obtaining exactly two heads, We will consider ‘obtaining a head’ as succes Now P(H) = 3 and P(B) = } ‘The probability of obtaining two tails and two heads, in that order, isgiven by panna) = (2) (2)° dendependent ovens) jut the result “wo heads and two tails’ can be obtained in But the result “two head: scan be aT ways. ‘This is the number of ways of choosing the 2 places for the heads from the 4 places, i. “C, ways. The arrangements are AHH HARK HHA ABBA HAHA AHH Example «2 Solution «2 Example 43 Phen exactly) = “,(2}'(2)" Therefore (2 oft} : ‘The probability of obtaining coin is towed four times is 3, An ordinary die is thrown seven times. Find the probebility of obiaining exactly three sixes. We will consider ‘obtaining a 6” as succes Now 26) = jand P18) = § 680666) = But the result four numbers which are not 6 and three sixes’ can be obtained in 2 asi the 8 places for the sixes from the 7 places). ways, i. "C, ways (the number of ways of choosing 80 Prexactly three sixes) = 7,2) (2 te) {s 0078 (Sap) ‘The probability of obtaining exactly thre sixes when a dois ‘thrown seven times is 0.076 (8 dp) ‘The probebility that a marksman hits a target is p and the probe bility that he misses is q, where q=1—p. Write an expression for the probability that, in 10 shots, he hits the target 6 times, ‘We will consider ‘obtaining a hit’ ax success Plsuccess) = p and Pailure) = q = 1—p We require 4 failures and 6 successes, in any order, 80 "Cya'p* ‘Therefore the probability that he hits the target exactly 6 times in we. PO successes) = spe ciat DISCRETE! In general If the probability that an experiment results in a successful out: come is p and the probability that the outcome is a failure is @, where q-=1—p, and if X ls the rx. ‘the number of successful ‘Outcomes in n independent trials’, then the p.d.. of X is given by AX =x) = "Ga" Ae Broa 9m Example 44 If p is the probability of success and q=1—p is the probability of failure, find the probability of 0,1,2,...,5 successes in 5 in- dependent trials of the experiment. Comment on your answer. Let X be the rv. ‘the number of successful outcomes’, Then X= 2) = "Gq" *p", 2 =0,1).+.,5andn= 5.80 PUX=0) = *Cya'p® = @ PUX=1) = SCatp! = Bap PUX=2) = *C,q2p? = 100°b? PU = 8) = *C,02p? = 109%p? Puk= 4) = Sa!" = Sap PUC=5) = "59°" = pF We note that g Sap...» pF are the terms in the binomial expan- sion of (g +p) and we have atph = gh + Baty + 10y De + roe + Sant f; 1 = P= 0) + PEK = 1) + PEK = 2) + PK = 8) + PX =A) +P = 5) Solution 44 In general ‘he values P(X = x) forx = 0,1,... 4m cam be oblained by con- sidering the terms in the binomial expansion of (q-+p)*, noting that q+ p=1 (at py = *Cuq'p? + "Cia" tpl "Cg" ptt CAI + nt CHR + + 1 ' 1 + 1 = PUR=0}+ PIX=1) + PUK=2) +... Pe) + IX is distributed in this way, we write +P (r=) X-~ Bin(n,p) where nis the number of independent trials and pis the probability of a successful ‘oateome in one trial rand p ate called the parameters of the distribution. So we read the statement X~ Bin(n, p) thus: X follows a binomial distribution with parameters n and p. _ Example 45 The probablity thet a person supports Party A i806. Find the ay aelity that in a randomly selcied sample of 8 votes noe sce Parga 2 Who support Party A, (b) mote than 8 ws sero Party 4 Solution 45 We will consider ‘supporting Party 4” as success, Then p= 0.6 and Supports Sid: Let X be the tv. “the number of Posy A Supporters. Then X~ Bin(n,p) withn=B and pe Ge 80 X~ Bin(8,0.6 (Caking logs to base 10) and POE 2) = "Ga" *p¥ = 86.00.4906), (change inequality when dividing ee by a negative quantity) Px= *0s0.4)50.6)* = 0124 (aap, ‘The probabilty that there are exactly 3 P y A supporter is 0 Bap = = he least value of n i 11 11 bulbs must be picked out of the box to en thatthe probability one red tulip bulb among then (b) We require PUK> 5) *CH0.4)0.8)*+ *010.4)0.6)?+ 8006)! 28(0.4)*(0.6)° + 8(0.4)(0,6)"4 Exercise 4a 4 (08)%4.48+1.92-+0.8) | a - 028 (ap) Give answers to 35 P. where appropriate nt Uhenw are more than 5 Party A De find (@) AK= 4, soap powder (a) exactly 8 have bovsht Ambon © jours sy Bt Oe Soapyauts, (2) mor then 6 hee bot pees pve. 2. UX~ Bin6,04, find () AX= 2) —— (rae, AED 8) 8. Describe an exper Example 48 A box contains age numberof red and yellow tulip bulbs in the brobsbiltes involved are the term of the ratio 1:3. Bulbs are picked at random trom the box. How many” [| The probably that « pen drat bulbs must be picked so th ity that there is at east Orvis eumle 6 ome ee Store cea ot ‘one red tulip bulb among them is greater than 6.9 hn garantie wl contain term of the expan and calculate th Solution 46 Consider ‘obtaining a red tulip bulb’ as ‘success’. Srv Pent, (¢) leas than 8 defective pens. ‘A coin is biased 50 that it is twice ax ‘Then p fand g=3, BO ore ane nar of ering et ane tha Boa al, Fin the Let X be the rv. ‘the number of. red tulip bulbs’ ae fm { (@) exacly thre’ heads are obtsned ‘Then X ~ Bin(n, p) where p = 1 (©) more then tates head are obtained and n is unknown, Fereotnn £00 bends im nix touser of a 10. Tho probability that 2 marksman scores a ee eek 2 oe les cout they Find ee pnae fan We rue Ax 1)>0.98, isprete sitar oy ming pte, fe Bobbi tht ati Now bilty'thet in famiy of § eilden there the outcome ofeach shots Independest vl be more boy than et of any other. The probabiliy that » housewife will 11. (a) A coin bined 40 thatthe prob vy Soa ot 6 85, Fld te Dilty of obtaining ahead ep. Te con Drobabty that in ssumple ot a 5 toned three times, Show the pos ‘ives who have each bough poe ot outcomes ona tee daam and Soo yz - —= Fin the lart number of shots which Therefore ‘Soa ef the probity atthe ee epension of (2 ae tng acne, Sel ee ta not) = Pras) tinal Oe ore Orem = (on + cmap OE find the eat os Eilty that (e) only 8 tavel by bes, _ va, (21M) - 15. ‘Tho probebllty that a target il is 0.3. ap 4 2A WIn=2) 2 | +p +(n—1)” EXPECTATION AND VARIANCE Ifthe random variable X is auch that X~ Bin(n, p) | Now the first row of terms it, as before, the expansion of then 50) = now we md Vu) = na whe @ = 1-7 | So E(X?) = npl(g+p)" Proot Now + (n—1)plq"-? + (n— 2)" +.. +P" P(X =x) = "Cg" *p* «= 0,1,2, n np(1+(n—1)p(g +pY~) 0X has the probability itebtion shown in the able: = mon. e—el ehh nod.—p)+ 1? e=2) _ Var(X) = mp(.—p)-+n?p*— (np)? Te Le pq where g = 1—p Therefore Var) = mpq "i @nm—0) (Oa"-+ (nat —p + ST Example 47 If the probability that it Is a fine day is 0.4, find the expected number of fine days in a week, and the standard deviation: inn 3 Solution 47 Let ‘fine day" be ‘success. Then p = 0.4 and q = 0.6. Let X be the ry. ‘the number of fine days in a week’. a-ip.af ate + nota" (n Then X~ Bin(n, p) where n = 7 and p = 0.4 +1 Now BEX) = np = (1)(0.4) = 28 Var(X) = npg = (7)(0.4)(0.8) = 1.68 npl(a+ PY") = np since gtp=1 Therefore the standard devia fi That dard deviation of X=/T8S = 1.30 days ‘The expected number of fine days in a week @dpy ation i 1.30 da 452.8 and the standard Xs such that x: Bin(n,p) and B(X) = 2, Var(x) = 4 Find the valu Poe = 2 Vande) = Hf ts of mand p, and P(X = 2), Sokition 42 If ~ Bin(n,p) then £(X) = np and Var(x) BG) = 2, Now to ee ra ¢ pq van = 24g w Substituting for np in (it) we have a wet sess ‘Therefore serene ne lag) “2 n= 26 Therefore n = 26 and p = 3, so that X~ Bin(26, Now PX =2) = "O,gtapF ag\ 0,2 13} 26)(25)(12)% Maas 0.282 (S4p.) Therefore P(X = 2) = 0.282 8a.) Ine, 10% are defective. Ifa sample of 25 mice is aken, find the expected member of defective articles snd the tan he probability that an apple, ploked st the standard deviation of the number of Xie a such that X~ Blo p). Given that B(x) =2-4 and p= 0.3, find mand the standard deviation of Ina group of people the expected mum: bes wit wear gluse 2 and the variance Ie'10 Find the probability that (0) « pewon chosen at random from the group tear gases, (3) 8 people in the group Ie the x, X ls sch that X (BG, @ P= 3), in 30,0) ‘hrowing «ax Is known tobe less than thmberof exes In 28 throws of the, In "lange mumbo of experiments the standard deviation of the numberof size ia 1.8 Clelat the valve ofp and ener doter bility that exactly three sce are recorded (€ Adationa) (0 For each ofthe experiments described binomial datlbution i appeoprite Experiment 1, bag contains back, white and ved marbles which re selected ‘Thecolour of each mare a noted of Experiment 1 except thet the by eon Experiment 3. ‘This experiment is repeat not replaced afterslection. by a machine in'a factory ste fealty Samples of 10 bole ae to be selected at ‘nom each day, Each bot wil beelecta fd replaced in te sel of bale which have (@) Caleulato, to 2 sigaticant figures, the Drobability that, any one sample, eo Balls or lus wil be faulty (0) Find tho expected valuo and the ‘rian ofthe nuaber of bolts ample ‘which wil not be fais. (L-Adatonal) In two binomial distributions the rato of the ratio of the arithmetic means e 2:0 ‘each distribution, find the probability of DIAGRAMMATIC REPRESENTATION OF THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION Consider X~ Bin(5, p) for various values of p. The probability distributions are illustrated on the following page. It is useful to compare, for example, the distributions of X ~ Bin(5,0.1) and ‘X~ Bin(5,0.9) and these have been printed side by side to facilitate this Consider X~ Bin(S,0.1) and X~ Bin(5,0.9) Notice th P(X = 01x ~ Bin(5,0.1)) PIX =11X~Bin(5, 0.1)) ax PUK X~ Bin(5, 0.9) 41X~Bin(5, 0.9)) Xin, 091 Also, considering X~ Bin(S,0.2) and X~ Bin(5,0.8) PUL = 21X~ Bin(S,0.2)) = PIX = 31x ~Bin(s, 0.8)) In general P(X =r|X~ Binin,p)) = P(X = n—riX ~ Bin(n,1—p)) NOTE: If p =0.5 then the distribution of X, where X~ Bin(n, 0.8), is symmetrical CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY TABLES ‘The task of finding binomial probabilities is made much easier if tables are available. These give the cumulative probabilities F(r) = P(X 1), (@) PE>3), (a) P(X<4) = 0.9976. (Airectly from the tables) PIX =2) = P(X<2)-PX<1) = 0.8369—0.5282 0.2087 PIX<3) = PIX<2) 0.8369 PK>1) = 1-PX<1) 10.5282 = oams PUK <2) = 1-0.8369 oasa Example 410 Solution 410 In the tables values of p are given from 0.1 to 0.8. However we are still able to use them for p = 0.6,0.7, 0.8 and 0.9 by using the fact that PX =1/X~Bin(n, p)) = PIX =n—rIX~ Bin(n, 1p) Consider again the probability distributions for X~ Bin(5, 0.3) and _X ~ Bin(5, 0.7) PUX<3|p =0.8) = PX > 2Ip = 0.7) and PUX> Alp = 0.8) = PX <1[p = 0.7) We see that In general PX n—riX~ Bin(n, 1p) P(X > riX~Bin(n, p)) = PX 3), (Px =4) (m) Par< 4), Using the column headed p = 0.8, with n= 5: (a) PUX> Sip = 0.41) = PIX<2ip = 0.8) = 0.8369 () PX<4ip=0.7) = PK>11p =0.3) 1-P(X s, Gara) (@) X~Bi(10, 0.45), find ren that X~ Bin(6, 0.4) write out the rx=o), AX=9, Decablty diteibation of i) <8), () E> 8), () X~ Bin(4, 0), fina (rere i), (<2), a Pe = 8. PE), Gi) FE), Guy? 4, Uo rx= 6) Given that X~ Bin('5, 0.85) write out ‘THE RECURRENCE FORMULA FOR THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION cumulative probability tables are not available then calculations can be performed more easily with the help of the recurrence formula, especially when a ealculator with a memory is being used. PIX= 241) = "Casa" Gs-pieryi® =p at) FN xa e (xsi! gt P=) =< mae a eS This is often written Peas = GaP mst ea yg Pt WME Peer = PK = 241) Pe = PUt= x) Example 412 IX ~ Bin(8,0.8) use the recurrence formula to calculate PLX < 4 Solution 412 We require PX<4)= p+ p:+-p.+-ps+ pe andn=8 ‘Po = P(X =0) = (0.79% net to write ou the numerical answer for yt can be slved in the memory straight away. However the values ase walter sean that you can check them on your calculator. comand Now p,,, = S410.) F107)" Now p=0.3,4 | neck each valu ni i Stored inthe memory) 0.057 648, and py = (0.798 When x=0 = 5002), 10.7)" 01976503 = 103) = 30.2)" 02964754 6(0.3) = 30.0: 02841218 01361367 i oscntTE PROBAILITY DISTRIBUTION pat Ps (Grom ‘memory’ on ealculator) 80 AX<4) = pytpit. = 09420323 efore P(X < 4) = 0.942 (8S.P). NOTE: if you are using a ealeulator, it is well worth practising this method, However, you need to set out all your working fits, then tse the ealeulator when you are ready. ample 413 A pottery produces royal souvenir mugs. Tt is known that 6% are _ defective. Lf 20 mugp are selected at random, find the probability that the sample contains less than 5 defective mug. ution 413 Let ‘obtaining a defective mug” be ‘succes a ‘Then P(success) = p = 0.06 and q = 0.94. Let X be the rw. ‘the number of dofective mugs ‘Then X~ Bin(n, p) where n = 20 and p = 0.06. We have PK = 5) = "Cg = 0,15..4520 1, (0.94)""—*(0.06)" We require PIX <5) = PIX = 0) 4K = 1) FPR = 2) 4 PC We show the two methods of performing the calculations: ate Maint *@a@a) “(eeyayay 0.290106 (6a.p.) 0.370348 0.224578, ux (0.94)"70.06)* 0.088 007 ak (0.94)'%0.06)* = 0.023 382 0.994 366 S0 PIX <5) = 0.994 (8S.F), Method 2. using the recurrence formula Now aap Pee tI In the example n = 20, p = 0.06, @ = (20. 0.94. Therefore Pat ‘Pz (store each value in the memory) Py = (0.947 When x= 0 v1 = 20(008 2 0.290 106 (as above) )Pe 348 oa 0.370. When x = 1 (298),, a rateer ‘Tho probability that there are less than 5 defective mugs in a sample 2F20'8 0.994 (8S.F. - To find the value of X that is most likely to occur ‘The value of X that is most likely to occur is the one with the highest probability. It is very tedious to work through finding ‘(X= x) forall x. Instead the recurrence formula can be used. ‘414 Of the inhabitants of a certain African village, 80% are known to hhave a particular eye disorder, If12 people are waiting to see the ‘nurse, what is the most likely number of them to have the eye disorder? Solution 416 Let X be the rv. ‘the number of people with the eye disorder’ ‘Then X~ Bin(n, p) with n= 12 and p= 08 ‘Therefore X ~ Bin(12, 0,8) and POC = x) = #6,(0.2)""*(0.8y, Using the recurrence formula 0,1,...412, (2-2 Pea oe | 80 Px41>Px when (nx Ip > (e+ 1), (12—2)(0.8) > (2 +1)(0.2) 4a2—x) > x41 <94 Le. Pati > Pe when So that But So that >Pi>Po =>94 Pro> Pur> Pies Pia> Po> Ps Putt

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