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Financial Modelling 123
Financial Modelling 123
Modeling
Handbook
Second Edition
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Finance Ratios
2. Depreciation Methods
4. Inventory Valuation
5. What is BETA?
6. Options Pricing
LIQUIDITY RATIOS
Current Ratio
Current Assets Benchmark: at least
Will we have enough money
Current Liabilities 1.00, preferably 2.00
to pay suppliers?
Debtor Days
How quickly do our debtors pay us Average Debtors x365
after the transaction? Turnover
Inventory Days
How fast can we sell our stock Average Inventory x365
after purchase? COGS
Creditor Days
How long do our suppliers allow Average Creditors x365
them to not pay for stocks after Purchases
purchasing them?
Cash Conversion Cycle
How long is cash tied up in inventory
Inventory Days + Debtor Days - Creditor Days
before the inventory is sold and cash
is collected from customers?
To calculate average receivables or stocks, the average between the year-start and year-end balance sheets is
used. Accordingly, these indicators are significantly affected by the closing balance! It is worth following them
every month in your company.
Turnover's cost of sales is not equal to production cost - the cost of purchasing and delivering items must be
taken into account.
Accounts payable should only be used for trade receivables. Depending on the situation, the bank's short-term
liabilities, which are taken directly to finance inventories, can be used.
All turnover figures are measurable in days.
1
PROFITABILITY RATIOS
Average Markup
Turnover
What is the average transaction COGS
markup for this company?
Gross Margin
Gross Profit
How many percent remain in
Turnover
circulation after covering all
production costs?
Net Margin
Net Profit
How many percent remain in circulation
Turnover
after covering all costs?
Return on Assets
EBIT
How profitable are the total Average Assets
assets in the company?
Return on Equity
Net Profit
How profitable is the owners'
Average Equity
investment in the company?
All averages are measured as the average between the beginning and the end of the year. The
calculation of equity should also include owner loans to the company, unpaid dividends, deferred
CIT, provisions, etc.
Equity Ratio
Do we have enough of our own Total Equity
Benchmark: >20%
money in the company? Total Assets
Comparison rate
It is worth calculating only for competitors - % payments
what could be their interest rate in the bank? Average loan
You know your own % rate from credit balances
agreements.
2
Debt-Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR)
EBITDA
Do we earn more than we have to pay the Benchmark: >120%
bank? % + principal
payments
Debt/EBITDA
Benchmark: <4.00, for
In how many years would the company be Bank loans balance
long-term real estate
able to return all its loans to the bank? EBITDA projects - more.
To calculate the average balance sheet ratios (assets, loan balances), the average between the
beginning and the end of the year balance sheet is used. Accordingly, these figures are affected by
the closing balance (but not as significant as receivables, inventories or trade receivables)! It is worth
following them every month in your company.
ALTMAN Z-SCORE
Z-Score
What is the probability of bankruptcy
Z=1.2A+1.4B+3.3C+0.6D+1.0E
of the company?
Z <1.8. Very high 1.8 < Z <2.7. Moderate Z > 2.7. Minimal probability
probability of bankruptcy probability of bankruptcy of bankruptcy in the next 2
in the near future in the next 2 years years
3
Depreciation
Methods
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Top 10 Excel
Functions
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Financial Modeling in Excel
10 Excel functions you should know
=SUMIFS()
SUMIFS function adds all of its arguments that meet multiple criteria.
For example, you would use SUMIFS in your financial model to sum up
the sales of (1) a specific employee (2) for a specific product.
=SUMIFS
(sum range (e.g. sales),
criteria range 1 (e.g.
employee),
criteria 1 (e.g. Tim),
criteria range 2 (e.g.
Product),
criteria 2, (e.g. Chairs))
Know your IFs, COUNTIFs, AVERAGEIFs and all other IFs too - after all,
financial modeling is just a series of IFs that could happen in this world.
=IFERROR()
Use IFERROR function to format your financial models. The function
checks for errors and returns the value specified by the user if found.
The function checks for the following errors: #N/A, #VALUE!, #REF!,
#DIV/0!, #NUM!, #NAME? or #NULL!.
=IFERROR(value, value_if_error)
Financial Modeling in Excel
10 Excel functions you should know
=XIRR()
Internal rate of return metric is needed to find out the annual growth
rate of an investment. The higher the IRR, the better the investment
(keeping all other factors the same, of course). IRR is good for
comparing different investment opportunities.
=XNPV()
Finance is money and we all know that money today is worth more than
tomorrow. Financial analysts oftentimes have to calculate the value of
an investment/company/project in today’s terms.
Unlike IRR and NPV, XIRR and XNPV functions allow for payments at irregular intervals
Financial Modeling in Excel
10 Excel functions you should know
=PMT()
PMT function calculates the payment for a loan based on constant
payments and a constant interest rate. You have to know the present loan
value, number of periods and the interest rate. PMT, PPMT and IPMT
functions are needed to figure out annuity loan repayments (e.g. mortgage)
=SLOPE()
If you’re into investment banking, at some point you’ll have to calculate the
Beta of a stock, which means volatility. By using the SLOPE function in Excel,
you’ll find it easily by using the returns of the stock and the comparative
benchmark index.
=SLOPE
(% of equity change range,
% range of change of index)
Financial Modeling in Excel
10 Excel functions you should know
=XLOOKUP
Lookup functions are a must to know for any modeler. They are used to
quickly and easily find data in a table, for example, to find the amount
sold by an employee, ID number, and thousands of other things.
=INDEX
(what you want to return,
=MATCH
(what are you looking
for, where can it be found)
Financial Modeling in Excel
10 Excel functions you should know
=EOMONTH()
EOMONTH function finds the last day of the month after you add a specific
number of months to a date. It’s useful for calculating maturity dates or due
dates that fall on the last day of the month. It also aids in setting up your
financial model.
=EOMONTH
(start_date,
months you want
to add/substract)
=SEQUENCE
The SEQUENCE function allows you to generate a list of sequential numbers
in an array. SEQUENCE function works great if you need to generate a list of
10,000 numbers in a column.
FIFO
First-In, First-Out
Selling oldest units of inventory first
FIFO should definitely be used when accounting for perishable items, for example, food items.
LIFO
Last-In, Last-Out
Selling last units that arrive in inventory first
Under the LIFO method, opposite from FIFO, you will see a lower net income. As the most recently
purchased items are usually the most expensive ones (due to inflation), the inventory costs will be
higher.
However, the decrease in profits also means a smaller corporate tax expense.
LIFO is usually used when inflation is high and by companies that have large inventories (e.g., retailers).
Example
Purchases
Month Units Price/Unit Total Cost
January 50 $50 $2,500
February 80 $60 $4,800
March 100 $70 $7,000
Total 230 $14,300
130 Units Sold
230-130=100 Units Le�
FIFO LIFO
FIFO COGS LIFO COGS
Units @ Price Total Cost Units @ Price Total Cost
1 50 @ 50$ $2,500 1 100 @ 70$ $7,000
2 80 @ 60$ $4,800 2 30 @ 60$ $1,800
Total 130 $7,300 Total 130 $8,800
Beta is a risk management tool, widely used in financial modeling. It demonstrates the volatility
(riskiness) of an asset or a portfolio in correlation to the market. In reality, most professionals use
some bechmark index, for example, S&P 500.
Formula
The “textbook” formula for beta is:
Interpretation
It is assumed that the market has a beta of 1. If beta of a security is >1, the security is more volatile
(more risky) than the market, however, in case it is <1, the stock is less volatile (less risky).
Betas are useful for calculating yields and returns for securities.
Beta in Excel
Here are the steps to calculate Beta in Excel:
1) Retrieve the historical price of a security and the benchmark index in 2 separate columns. You
can either export it from online sources or use the =STOCKHISTORY function.
2) Calculate the price change for the security in percentage with the use of this formula:
Example
Assuming there is a security with a daily change in price calculated
in cells L7:L52 and the daily change of an index calculated
in cells Q7:Q52, the formula in Excel should look like
=SLOPE (L7:L52; Q7:Q52). The returned value is the beta.
In this case, the result is 0.36, implying that this particular
stock is less volatile than the market.
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$
Options
Pricing
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OPTIONS
OPTIONS PRICING
PRICING
- A call option is a contract giving its owner the right to buy shares of a stock at a fixed price.
- A put option is a contract giving its owner the right to sell shares of a stock at a fixed price.
- If the option can be exercised any time before the maturity date it is called an American
option.
Option payoff implies the gross value of an option at the maturity date, excluding the initial
transfer of the premium.
Option profit means showing the net gain or loss of a position in options by also accounting for
the costs and gains of establishing the position.
K S K S
K K
S S
USEFUL FORMULAS IN OPTIONS PRICING: r = annual (nominal) interest rate e = mathematical constant ~ 2.71828
growth rate 1 - rf
u = e d = Annual Discount Factor = e
u
S2 = S 1* u
S2= 778.19 * 1.20 = 931.66
S 1= S 0 * u
Payoff based on
S1= 650 * 1.20 = 778.19
S T ++
Expected value of
two values from t=2
S0= 650 S - K = 931.66 - 600 = 331.6
discounted by one
Expected value of period
S2= 778.19 * 0.84 = 650
two values from t=1 ( * Pu + * P d ) * discount factor
discounted by one (331.6* 53.93% + 50 * 46.07%) * 0.97 =
195.92
Payoff based on
period
S 1= S 0 * d
S T +-
Call value = S1= 650 * 0.84 = 542.93
( *P + * P ) * discount factor
u d Expected value of
(195.92 * 53.93% + 26.17 * 46.07%) * 0.97 =
S - K = 650 - 600 = 50
114.23
two values from t=2
discounted by one
period S2= 542.93 * 0.84 = 453.49
( *P +
u
* P ) * discount factor
d
(50 * 53.93% + 0 * 46.07%) * 0.97 =
26.17
Payoff based on
1. Calculate the binomial tree for the underlying stock’s S T --
share price from today (t = 0) until expiration (t = T) using -
the up factor U and the down factor D.
S - K = 453.49 - 600 = - ... -> -
NB! Given the nature of the assumptions (i.e., D=¹⁄U), you
(<0)
should only have T+1 (not 2^T) possible stock prices at
time t=T.
2. At t=T, compute all the possible payoffs of the option
for all potential share prices at expiration based on the NB! These risk-neutral up and down probabilities are NOT the
strike price and the nature of the option (i.e., call, put, market consensus probabilities that the stock will go up or
etc.). down.
3. Calculate the expected option payoff at t=T using the
f
risk-neutral up and down probabilities. Then, discount 4. Repeat step 3 for times t=T-2,T-3,… until you find the value
f
these expected payoffs using the risk-free rate (r_f) to find of the option at t=0. This should be the fair price of the option
the option value at t=T-1 (i.e., one period prior to according to the binomial tree model.
expiration). This value is called the continuation value of
the option at time t=T-1.
S2 = S 1* u
S = 778.19 * 1.20 = 931.66
2
S 1= S 0 * u
Payoff based on
S1= 650 * 1.20 = 778.19
S T ++
The expected value is the
highest of the two: discounted
S0= 650 future payoffs from t=2 or if K - S = 600 - 931.66 = - ... -> -
(<0)
you were to exercise the
The expected value is the option right now. S2= 778.19 * 0.84 = 650
highest of the two:
( * Pu + * P ) * discount factor
discounted future payoffs d
(0 * 53.93% + 0 * 46.07%) * 0.97 =
from t=1 or if you were to 0 Payoff based on
exercise the option right now. -
S 1= S 0 * d S T +-
Call value = S1= 650 * 0.84 = 542.93
( *P + * P ) * discount factor
u d The expected value is the K - S = 600 - 650= - ... -> -
(0 * 53.93% + 65.51* 46.07%) * 0.97 = highest of the two: discounted (<0)
29.29
future payoffs from t=2 or if S2= 542.93 * 0.84 = 453.49
Compare with K-S (600-650=-50) -> you were to exercise the
29.29>-50
option right now.
Payoff based on
( * Pu + * P d ) * discount factor
(0 * 53.93% + 146.51 * 46.07%) * 0.97 = S T --
65.51
Compare with K-S (600-542.93=57.07) ->
65.51>57.07
K - S = 600 - 453.49 = 146.51
Quick Ratio Similar to the current ratio but excludes (Current Assets - Inventory) /
inventory, providing a more immediate
(Acid-Test Ratio) measure of liquidity.
Current Liabilities
Return on Investment Evaluates the return earned from an (Net Profit from Investment/
investment relative to its cost. Cost of Investment) * 100
(ROI)
Inventory Turnover Measures how many times inventory Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
is sold and replaced within a specific / Average Inventory
Ratio period.
Days Inventory Indicates the average number of days 365 days / Inventory
Outstanding (DIO) it takes for inventory to be sold. Turnover Ratio
Gross Margin Return Measures the profitability of inventory (Gross Margin / Average
on Inventory Investment investments relative to their cost. Inventory) x 100
Calculates the percentage of revenue remaining after (Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold) / Revenue *
deducting the cost of goods sold, indicating the
Gross Profit Margin efficiency of the company's production or service delivery.
100
Note: DPO represents the average number of days it takes for a company to pay its accounts payable. It can be calculated as Average
Accounts Payable / (Total Supplier Purchases / Number of Days).
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GROWTH KPIs YOU SHOULD KNOW
Name Description Formula
Customer Acquisition Calculates how much it costs to Total Cost of Sales and Marketing /
acquire each new customer. Number of New Customers Acquired
Cost (CAC)
Monthly Recurring Tracks the predictable and recurring Average Revenue Per User x Number
of Customers
Revenue (MRR) revenue generated.
While primarily associated with accounting, the CPA Various state boards
Certified Public
CPA Accountant
certification is highly valuable in finance due to its emphasis
on financial reporting, auditing, taxation, and business law.
of accountancy in
the United States
'
Certified Financial Geared towards financial planning and wealth management, Certified Financial
CFP Planner
the CFP certification covers areas like retirement planning,
estate planning, tax planning, and more.
Planner Board of
Standards
Investments &
Certified Investment Suitable for investment consultants and advisors, the
CIMA
Wealth Institute in
CIMA certification focuses on portfolio construction, risk
Management Analyst management, and investment strategies.
association with the
CFA Institute.
Financial Planning
FPA Association
This program covers various aspects of financial planning
and is recognized by the Financial Planning Association.
Financial Planning
Association
Association of
Chartered Certified
ACCA Accountant
Emphasizes financial management, audit and taxation Chartered Certified
Accountants
You have lots of little pieces, like the money you make
and the money you spend, and you have to put them
all together in a special way to make a big picture.
If the trees are growing really fast and giving you lots of
treasure, that's a great thing! It's like knowing how much
your magic seeds are worth when they turn into trea-
sure. Grown-ups use IRR to decide if a project or an in-
vestment is a good idea. If the IRR is high, it means the
project will make lots of treasure over time.
So, they can use IRR to choose the best ways to spend
their money and make sure it grows like magic!
WACC helps companies know how much they should pay for all
the money they borrow and use to make their business better.
Now, ARR is like using your math skills to figure out how
much money you can expect to get from them every year.
You add up all the money they'll pay you for lemonade,
and find out how much money keeps coming in regularly.
Learn more
Learn the coolest Excel tricks and secrets, and even watch these
champions compete LIVE! Imagine being a part of all the fun and ex-
citement too! Plus, you'll discover how to think about big projects
and businesses to predict the future and even get certified by the in-
credible Excel MVPs Oz du Soleil and Jon Acampora.
And guess what? You can join the FMWC award ceremony in Las Vegas
It's like going to a super cool party where they celebrate amazing
achievements! So, are you ready to be an Excel superhero? The Active
Cell is waiting for you!
GENERAL NAVIGATION
Create embedded chart Alt F1 Move one screen right Alt PgDn
Create chart in new worksheet F11 Move one screen left Alt PgUp
Create new workbook Ctrl N Move to first cell in worksheet Ctrl Home
FORMATTING WORKBOOK
Decrease font size one step Alt H F K Move to previous pane Shift F6
Scientific Number Format Ctrl Shift ^ Minimize current workbook window Ctrl F9
Date Format Ctrl Shift # Maximize current workbook window Ctrl F10
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17 Financial
Modeling
Tips & Trciks
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17 FINANCIAL MODELING
TIPS & TRICKS
General rules
01
General rules
6 Use placeholders
02
Data Table
A great tool for your what-if analysis. A range of cells in which you can
change values in some of the cells and come up with different answers
to a problem.
2. Calculate the value you Savings amount from the initial input data
want to find out
5. Put in row and column Row input cell - interest rate from initial input
input cell that corressponds data;
to the layout you have Column input cell - starting amount from initial
created in step #3 and input data
press OK
By changing the
initial input data,
your data table
will update too!
Financial Modeling in Excel FINANCIAL MODELING
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Pivot Table
A PivotTable is a powerful tool to calculate, summarize, and analyze data
that lets you see comparisons, patterns, and trends in your data.
Data Validation
Use data validation to restrict the type of data or the values that users
enter into a cell. One of the most common data validation uses is to
create a drop-down list.
3. Choose what will the users Offer to choose from a list of store locations such
be able to choose (numbers, as “USA, Spain, UK, Australia, Japan, Germany”
dates, time, custom text, etc.)
5. Link other data in your Link profit and loss statements to geographical
model to this dropdown list, location of the stores from the dropdown by using
so that values update “IF” statements
automatically
Financial Modeling in Excel FINANCIAL MODELING
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Power Query
Power Query (known as Get & Transform in Excel) is a great tool for minimizing
repetitive daily tasks. You can import or connect to external data and then shape this
data. For example, remove a column, change a data type, or merge tables in ways
that meet your needs. Then, you can load your query into Excel to create charts and
reports.
Typical Excel
Mistakes
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How ChatGPT
Can Simplify
Excel Workflow?
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HOW CHATGPT CAN SIMPLIFY
OUR EXCEL WORKFLOW
In a recent video, Excel MVP Kevin Stratvert uses ChatGPT to create an Excel
macro that functions as an invoicing app, using customer email addresses and the
amount they owe (with all the data found on an Excel sheet). Not only does ChatGPT
create an Excel macro, it also gives a detailed explanation for how this macro works.
HOW CHATGPT CAN SIMPLIFY
OUR EXCEL WORKFLOW
Yes, it can. All you need to do is type in a command, for example: “Write an Excel
Power Query M code to append sheet1 from workbook1 and sheet2 from workbook2
and remove duplicates from column B and ChatGPT will come back with an example
of a Power Query M code that can be used. Also, ChatGPT gives a detailed
explanation about the Power Query M code. Then, just copy and paste
the code and you’re good to go.
HOW CHATGPT CAN SIMPLIFY
OUR EXCEL WORKFLOW
Let’s say you need to find some very specific information that’s located
in an Excel sheet. This is another case when using ChatGPT could save you
some time. Export your Excel sheet as a CSV file. Copy and paste some
of the data into ChatGPT (unfortunately it’s not possible to copy and paste the
whole thing as there’s still some content limitations to what ChatGPT can digest).
ChatGPT will explain the data and now you can start asking questions to
help locate specific information that you need. ChatGPT can successfully
locate and show you the information you are looking for, possibly saving you
time and a headache doing the same with Excel.
Even though ChatGPT is super powerful and useful – the data or solutions
it provides can sometimes be inaccurate. We advise you to always
double-check and see if the answers provided are correct
(and don’t rely on ChatGPT for everything just yet!