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Abstract—Cryptocurrency is a cutting-edge Fintech innovation Nonetheless, as the cryptocurrency market is still under
and currently a worldwide hotspot. However, the high-speed rapid development and evolution, the prices of currencies
evolution of it has already caused a series of public security change drastically. Whether the cryptocurrency is used as a
related events all around the world. Cryptocurrency was built
initially as a possible implementation of digital currency, then transaction medium or a value store, price fluctuations can
various derivatives were created in a variety of fields such significantly affect the behavior of traders. Besides market
as financial transactions, capital management, and even non- risks, there also exist shallow market problems, adversary
monetary applications. This paper aims to offer analytical risks, transaction risks, operational risks, privacy-related risks,
insights to help understand cryptocurrency by treating it as and legal and regulatory risks [2]. These pose a significant
a financial asset. We position cryptocurrency by comparing
its dynamic characteristics with two traditional and massively challenge to build a comprehensive understanding of the
adopted financial assets: foreign exchange and stock. Based on cryptocurrency market. Lots of works have focused on Bitcoin,
the daily close prices about four years, we first construct the analyzing its price bubbles [3] and determinants [4], [5], as
correlation matrices and asset trees of all three markets, then well as a comparative analysis of Bitcoin with other financial
conduct comparisons on five properties: volatility, centrality, assets [6]–[9]. However, little is known on the cryptocurrency
clustering structure, robustness, and risk. Our investigation
suggests that the dynamics of cryptocurrency are more similar to market, and only on the competition of several cryptocurren-
stock. As to the robustness and clustering structure, our analysis cies [10], [11] and the evolutionary dynamics using statistical
shows cryptocurrency market is more fragile than stock market, methods [12].
thus it is currently a high-risk financial market. Our work is the
first to study cryptocurrency with the help of well-understood Thus we still lack basic concepts to fully describe cryp-
financial assets and may shed some light on investment decisions,
regulation, and legislation. tocurrency. In contrast, we do have relatively more experience
Index Terms—cryptocurrency, blockchain, financial market, and knowledge in traditional financial assets (e.g., foreign ex-
correlation matrix, asset tree, systemic risk change and stock) [13]–[19] and these can help us understand
the nature of cryptocurrency. Among which, we select widely
adopted methods, asset tree and correlation matrix, based on
I. I NTRODUCTION
price data from January 2015 to November 2018, to investigate
Cryptocurrency is a kind of digital currency in which the characteristics of the cryptocurrency market and position it
blockchain is used as a decentralized ledger to secure the trans- through comparisons with other traditional financial markets.
actions and control the generation of new units of currency
(i.e., the so-called coins), which is operated independently As an extension of work [20], the main contributions and
without a central authority. Since Bitcoin, the first cryptocur- findings of this paper can be summarized as follows. First,
rency, emerged in 2009 [1], the cryptocurrency market has we study the cryptocurrency market at the financial market
become an important component of the international financial level and compare it with traditional financial markets. Second,
market after ten years’ development. According to Cryptocur- our investigation yields interesting findings: though cryptocur-
rency Market Capitalizations 1 , by March 24, 2019, there are rencies were initially designed as a blockchain-based digital
more than 2000 active currencies in the market, with a total currency, however, its market dynamics are more similar to
market cap of over $139 billion. the stock market, thus it is currently a high-risk market. Our
analysis illustrates the nature of the price fluctuations in the
1 Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization | CoinMarketCap, available from cryptocurrency market and provides guidance for investment,
https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ regulation, and legislation.
TABLE I TABLE II
T HE SET OF CRYPTOCURRENCIES T HE SET OF CURRENCIES
Currency Symbol Currency Symbol Currency Symbol Currency Symbol Currency Symbol Currency Symbol
Bitcoin BTC ICON ICX Veritaseum VERI Algeria DZD Egypt EGP Morocco MAD
Ethereum ETH Populous PPT Walton WTC China CNY Hong Kong HKD Indonesia IDR
Ripple XRP Nano NANO Ardor ARDR Saudi United Sri
SAR GBP LKR
8Cardano ADA PIVX PIVX Waves WAVES Arabia Kingdom Lanka
Stellar XLM OmiseGO OMG RChain RHOC Philippines PHP Pakistan PKR Singapore SGD
NEO NEO Zcash ZEC Dogecoin DOGE Bulgaria BGN Switzerland CHF Czechia CZK
Litecoin LTC Steem STEEM Aeternity AE Hungary HUF Iceland ISK Jamaica JMD
EOS EOS Stratis STRAT Decred DCR Poland PLN Romania RON Russia RUB
NEM XEM BitShares BTS Komodo KMD Turkey TRY Bahrain BHD Japan JAP
IOTA MIOTA Vechain VET HyperCash HC Kuwait KWD Europe EUR Fiji FJD
Dash DASH Siacoin SC Status SNT Mexico MXN Australia AUD Chile CLP
Monero XMR Bytecoin BCN Gas GAS Argentina ARS Brazil BRL Venezuela VEF
TRON TRX Verge XVG Ark ARK Peru PEN Uruguay UYU Denmark DKK
Qtum QTUM 0x ZRX Augur REP gold XAU platinum XPT Norway NOK
KingN Kucoin South Africa ZAR Malaysia MYR Sweden SEK
Lisk LSK KNC KCS
Coin Shares India INR Thailand THB silver XAG
Binance Bitcoin Israel ILS New Zealand NZD United Arab
BNB BTG Basic AED
Coin Gold BAT Canada CAD Colombia COP Emirates
Attention
Bitcoin Ethereum
BCH ETC Token
Cash Classic
0.50 0.50
0.5 XLM XLM
XEM XEM
0.25 0.25
WAVES WAVES
0.0 STRAT STRAT
0.12
02/1508/1502/1608/1602/1708/1702/1808/18 02/1508/1502/1608/1602/1708/1702/1808/18 02/1508/1502/1608/1602/1708/1702/1808/18 STEEM SNT
0.06 SNT SC
0.075
SC REP
variance
0.10
0.050 REP QTUM
0.08
0.04
QTUM OMG
0.025 OMG NEO
0.06 0.02 NEO NANO
02/1508/1502/1608/1602/1708/1702/1808/18
0.000
02/1508/1502/1608/1602/1708/1702/1808/18 02/1508/1502/1608/1602/1708/1702/1808/18 NANO MIOTA
1 MIOTA LTC
1 2 LTC LSK
skewness
0 LSK ETH
0 0 ETH ETC
−1 ETC DOGE
−1 DOGE DASH
−2
−2 DASH
02/1508/1502/1608/1602/1708/1702/1808/18 02/1508/1502/1608/1602/1708/1702/1808/18 02/1508/1502/1608/1602/1708/1702/1808/18 BTS BTS
2 BTC BTC
4 BCH BCH
BAT BAT
kurtosis
1 5
ARK ARK
0
2
ARDR ARDR
−1 0
0 ADA ADA
02/1508/1502/1608/1602/1708/1702/1808/18 02/1508/1502/1608/1602/1708/1702/1808/18 02/1508/1502/1608/1602/1708/1702/1808/18 02/15 08/15 02/16 08/16 02/17 08/17 02/18 08/18 02/15 08/15 02/16 08/16 02/17 08/17 02/18 08/18
time (mon/year)
time (mon/year)
Fig. 1. Distribution of the correlation matrix and asset tree. Fig. 2. Central node over time in cryptocurrency market according to degree
criterion (left), weighted degree criterion (right).
1.0 0
TABLE V
10
S URVIVAL RATIOS AMONG MARKETS
0.9
single-step survival ratio
−1
0.8 10
0.7
Foreign exchange market 0.932 18 39 154
0.6 10
−2
Stock market 0.925 16 34 153
0.5
Cryptocurrency market 0.916 14 28 85
−3
0.4 10
0.3 0 1 2
02/15 08/15 02/16 08/16 02/17 08/17 02/18 08/18 10 10 10
time (mon/year) day is similar to the behavior of the foreign exchange market and
the stock market. To some extent, it can be used to reflect
Fig. 4. Single-step survival ratio (left) and multi-step survival ratio (right) differences in market stability.
in the cryptocurrency market. In the left of the figure, the average value is We adopt the multi-step survival ratio to investigate the
indicated by the horizontal line (green). long-term evolutionary characteristics of trees. According to
Table V, in the cryptocurrency market, the half-life, the
cryptocurrency market, except for Bitcoin’s dominance, other concept from physics indicating the time it takes to halve
central nodes are relatively diverse. In terms of the behavior the ratio, is 14 days. About 1/3 of the links remain after
of central nodes, the cryptocurrency market is more similar to nearly 1 month, and less than 10% of the links survive after
the stock market, as changeable central nodes indicating that nearly 3 months. Subsequently, comparing with the other two
the market is in a continual transformation and development markets in Table V, we can conclude that the survival ratio of
stage. the foreign exchange market is the highest, followed by the
stock market, and the ratio of the cryptocurrency market is
C. Robustness the lowest, illustrating that the cryptocurrency market is more
In order to investigate the robustness of asset tree topology, fragile than the traditional financial market.
we use the single-step survival ratio to measure the short-
term behavior of the edges. In the cryptocurrency market, D. Clustering Structure
we observe the following phenomena from Fig. 4. First, Using the clusters of the asset tree, it is possible to obtain
the average value of the single-step survival ratio is 0.916, a meaningful economic taxonomy of the assets and identify
implying that a large majority of links between trees survive assets that are actively in play and effectively dominating the
from one window to the next and the trees are stable overall. financial market.
Second, the prominent dips reveal that a strong topological The top side of Fig. 5 shows an example of an asset tree with
reconfiguration of the tree is taking place, and they are a 3-month time window in September 2017, the nodes from
positioned around financial events as noted before, indicating the same cluster are marked by the same color and the node
that tree reconfiguration takes place during the crash. size is determined by its weighted degree. As we can see, at
Comparing the average value of single-step ratios listed in the top left of the tree is a strong ZEC cluster. Adjacent is an
Table V, we find that though the values of the three markets apparent orange-colored cluster where ETH dominates. And
are high, the value in the foreign exchange market is the OMG, KMD, ETC, and BCN are the centers of the other four
highest, the value in the stock market follows, and the value clusters respectively. The equivalent asset tree 3 months later
in the cryptocurrency market is the lowest, which reflects the is shown on the bottom side of Fig. 5, we can observe that the
difference in market stability to some extent. Hence, regarding trees do change over time. In the ZEC cluster, a central node
the single-step ratio, the behavior of the cryptocurrency market and several nodes around it survive, while the other clusters
currency stock crypto
0.35 0.6
mean correlation
0.30 0.5 0.6
KCS 0.4
0.25 0.4
VEN 0.3
XVG
0.20
BNB AE 0.2 0.2
QTUM BTC 0.15 0.1
PPT WTC STEEM BCN
TRX STRAT KMD 02/15 08/15 02/16 08/16 02/17 08/17 02/18 08/18 02/15 08/15 02/16 08/16 02/17 08/17 02/18 08/18 02/15 08/15 02/16 08/16 02/17 08/17 02/18 08/18
LTC KNC 1.2
ZRX DASH XRP BAT DOGE 0.9
ARK
normalized tree
0.85
ZEC ETH REP OMG EOS VERI
0.8
1.0
BTG 0.125
BTS 0.5
0.3
0.100
0.4
risk
0.075 0.2 0.3
0.050 0.2
0.1
0.1
0.025
ZEC XMR VEN 02/15 08/15 02/16 08/16 02/17 08/17 02/18 08/18
0.0
02/15 08/15 02/16 08/16 02/17 08/17 02/18 08/18
0.0
02/15 08/15 02/16 08/16 02/17 08/17 02/18 08/18
time (mon/year)
WTC BCH
GAS DASH KMD
VERI
HSR BTG BTC
TRX LSK
Fig. 6. Minimum risk, mean correlation coefficient, and normalized tree
QTUM ETC NEO LTC ARK NANO length.
RHOC
REP PIVX DCR
WAVES
MIOTA ETH
AE
ZRX
OMG BTS
EOS
DOGE
STEEM ICX the risk curve, the curve of the mean correlation coefficient,
STRAT
BNB
XRP KCS and the curve of the normalized tree length. Specifically,
XLM BCN
ARDR BAT SC the correlation coefficients between the risk and the mean
SNT
KNC
PPT XVG correlation coefficient are 0.952 and 0.906 respectively, and
XEM ADA
the coefficients between the risk and the normalized tree length
are -0.928 and -0.788 respectively. Therefore, for the two
Fig. 5. The asset tree in September 2017 (left) and December 2017 (right) datasets, the normalized tree length is able to explain the
in the cryptocurrency market.
diversification potential of the market, though not as strongly
as the mean correlation coefficient. In the foreign exchange
are newly generated by merging, separating, and recombining market, though the correlations between the two curves are
as follows: the ETH and the ETC cluster are merged to a new not very evident, with coefficients being 0.220 and -0.133, the
cluster, and three new clusters have been formed. The obvious curves are correlated or anti-correlated during the fluctuations.
changes in the tree topology indicate financial events. In conclusion, for portfolio analysis, the distribution of
For comparison, we conduct a cluster analysis of asset assets included in the minimum risk is consistent and these
trees in other markets. We found that in the foreign exchange assets are located on the outskirts of the asset tree. Although
market, clusters are consistent with the geographical regions, the behavior of the normalized tree length is relevant to the
and in the stock market, clusters are in accordance with the diversification potential of these three markets, the behavior
business sector. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market does of the cryptocurrency is more similar to the stock.
not have evident clustering rules, and clusters change more
rapidly. IV. C ONCLUSION
E. Portfolio Risk In this paper, we analyzed the dynamic characteristics of
Finally, we adopt the minimum portfolio risk to measure the cryptocurrency market and compared it with two tradi-
the influence of occurrence of an event on a certain number tional financial markets, foreign exchange and stock. Through
of assets in the market, which is useful in system risk analysis experiments, we validated that correlation matrix and asset
and decision-making processes in the financial market. tree are effective tools to analyze the cryptocurrency market,
First, we determine how the assets included in the minimum just as good as be employed to analyze the markets of foreign
portfolio risk are located with respect to the central node. exchange and stock market. By applying these two tools, we
We find that the weighted portfolio layer is higher than the found that there exist similarities and differences among these
mean occupation layer most of the time, and the differences markets, summarized in Table VI, which may shed some light
between the layers in the three markets are 0.67, 1.38, and 0.31 on investment decisions, regulation, and legislation.
respectively. That is, the assets included in the minimum risk First, as to the temporal volatility of the correlation matrix
portfolio are consistently located further away from the central and the asset tree and the location of the assets included in
node (distributed on the outskirts of the tree), as measured the minimum risk portfolio, the behaviors of the three markets
against the corresponding mean occupation layer, most of the are similar.
time. Also, the behavior of the three markets is consistent in Second, the behavior of the cryptocurrency market is more
the weighted portfolio layer. similar to that of the stock market with respect to diversity of
In Fig. 6, we plot the minimum risk as a function of the central nodes in centrality and the correlation between the
time. We find that in the stock market and the cryptocur- minimum risk and the mean correlation coefficient/normalized
rency market, there exists a remarkable similarity between tree length in the portfolio risk.
TABLE VI
C OMPARISON AMONG CURRENCY, STOCK , AND CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKETS
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