JGR Atmospheres - 2020 - Gadouali - On The Link Between The Madden Julian Oscillation Euro Mediterranean Weather Regimes

INTRODUCTION TO On the Link Between the Madden‐Julian Oscillation,
A SPECIAL Euro‐Mediterranean Weather Regimes, and

COLLECTION
10.1029/2020JD032387
Morocco Winter Rainfall
F. Gadouali1,4 , N. Semane2 , Á.G. Muñoz3 , and M. Messouli4
Special Section: 1
Bridging Weather and Direction de la Météorologie Nationale, Casablanca, Morocco, 2Ecole Hassania des Travaux Publics, Casablanca,
Climate: Morocco, 3International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), The Earth Institute at Columbia University,
Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal (S2S) Palisades, NY, USA, 4Faculté des sciences Semlalia, Université Cadi Ayyad, Marrakesh, Morocco
Prediction
Key Points: Abstract K‐means cluster analysis of wintertime 500‐hPa geopotential height anomalies allowed
• K‐means analysis of 500‐hPa identifying seven weather regimes (WRs) describing the atmospheric variability over the
geopotential height anomalies over
Euro‐Mediterranean domain. The study of transitions between those WRs provided consistent results with
the Euro‐Mediterranean region was
used to identify seven weather the westward displacement of the blocking nearby northern Europe before the onset of the negative phase of
regimes using a new information the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO−). The onset of the latter is, indeed, preceded by the North Atlantic
criterion
blocking regime (NABl). In addition, we detected a preferred transition from the Scandinavian Blocking
• The link found between these
weather regimes and rainfall in (ScBl) to NAO+ through the European Ridge regime (EuRG), which is modulated by active phases of the
Morocco suggests that a NAO− Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). The examination of the relationship between WRs and precipitation over
(NAO+) state is associated with
Morocco showed that the NAO− (NAO+) regime is accompanied by more (less) rainy episodes. The
more (less) rainfall
• The MJO favors a significant investigation of the lagged relationships between the MJO and the WRs depicted the role of an active MJO in
enhancement (reduction) of the Phase 2 as a precursor of the ScBl and of an active MJO in Phase 6 as a precursor of the NABl. The
probability of wet (dry) conditions
exploration of the 10–15 days lagged impact of the MJO on Moroccan rainfall showed an increase (decrease)
10 to 15 days after the occurrence of
an active MJO in Phases 6 and 8 of wet (dry) conditions 10 to 15 days after the occurrence of an active MJO in Phases 6 and 8 (Phases 2‐3‐4).
(Phases 2‐3‐4) The MJO modulation of the WRs and rainfall patterns over Morocco constitutes an important source of
predictability at the medium‐ and the extended‐range (subseasonal) time scales, with potential use by
decision makers in key socioeconomic sectors in the region.
Correspondence to:
F. Gadouali,
gadoualif@gmail.com
1. Introduction
Citation:
Gadouali, F., Semane, N., Muñoz, Á. G., Extreme weather events are the principal responsible for the major natural disasters in Morocco. Heavy rain-
& Messouli, M. (2020). On the Link fall and floods are indeed the main phenomena that lead to losses of human life, infrastructure and crops.
Between the Madden‐Julian
Oscillation, Euro‐Mediterranean
Due to the high vulnerability of this country to extreme rainfall, improving the predictability of weather over
Weather Regimes, and Morocco Winter the extended‐range (10–30 days) time scale is very important for early warning systems. Recently, it has been
Rainfall. Journal of Geophysical demonstrated that the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) plays an important role in the modulation of the
Research: Atmospheres, 125,
e2020JD032387. https://doi.org/
midlatitude circulation, with a time lag that could thereby improve the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) fore-
10.1029/2020JD032387 cast skill (Cassou, 2008; Muñoz et al., 2016; Tseng et al., 2017; Vitart & Robertson, 2018). The MJO oscillation
is a large‐scale eastward propagating pattern of tropical convection and is considered as the largest contri-
Received 7 JAN 2020 buting mode of the intraseasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere (e.g., Madden & Julian, 1972). Its
Accepted 3 APR 2020
Accepted article online 8 APR 2020
most basic feature consists of an eastward moving area of deep convective clouds bounded on both the west
and east by regions of suppressed convection along the Indian and Pacific oceans. The MJO is characterized
by a large amplitude during boreal winter compared with the boreal summer. Previous studies have deter-
mined that the MJO has a direct impact on weather in the tropics (Ho et al., 2006). Furthermore, it has been
shown that the MJO can impact extratropical weather patterns by influencing the Arctic Oscillation or the
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Cassou, 2008; L'Heureux & Higgins, 2008; Lin et al., 2009), and also
weather patterns and extreme rainfall events in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics via cross‐timescale
©2020. The Authors.
This is an open access article under the
interference with other climate drivers like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (Muñoz et al., 2015, 2016). The
terms of the Creative Commons influence of the MJO on extratropical weather has a time delay, which can enhance (or not) the predictabil-
Attribution License, which permits use, ity of particular atmosphere states at extended‐range timescales (~10–30 days) (Cassou, 2008; Vitart &
distribution and reproduction in any
medium, provided the original work is
Molteni, 2010). Such improvement of the weather predictability could have a great impact for decision mak-
properly cited. ing in different socioeconomic sectors.
GADOUALI ET AL. 1 of 10
21698996, 2020, 8, Downloaded from https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JD032387 by Morocco Hinari NPL, Wiley Online Library on [30/01/2024]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2020JD032387
Author Contributions: The MJO impacts have been assessed over many parts of the world, such as for Australia (Wheeler
Conceptualization: N. Semane, M.
et al., 2009), East Africa (Pohl & Camberlin, 2006), South America (Alvarez et al., 2016; Muñoz
Messouli
Formal analysis: N. Semane, Á.G. et al., 2015, 2016), Southeast China (Zhang et al., 2009), and India (Pai et al., 2011). Previous studies have
Muñoz demonstrated that the MJO can influence the probability and spatial distribution of daily rainfall through
Investigation: N. Semane
the modulation of surface and upper air atmospheric fields. Pohl and Camberlin (2006) concluded that
Methodology: N. Semane
Software: N. Semane, Á.G. Muñoz the MJO has a non‐negligible impact on southern African rainfall and atmospheric convection variability.
Supervision: M. Messouli Pourasghar et al. (2015) noted the development of more frequently wet conditions over southern Iran during
Validation: N. Semane, Á.G. Muñoz,
MJO phases 1–2 and 7–8. Sossa et al. (2017) showed that the MJO modulates the occurrence of heavy daily
M. Messouli
Visualization: Á.G. Muñoz precipitation events in West Africa during certain phases. Curtis (2017) found a significant relationship
Writing – review & editing: N. between the MJO cycle and the regional seasonal rainfall. The study of Ren and Ren (2017) showed that
Semane, Á.G. Muñoz
the MJO phases 2–3 can increase the occurrence of winter extreme rainfall over southern China while dry
conditions are favored during Phases 6–7. Lin et al. (2009) found that a positive (negative) NAO is likely
to happen few days after the detection of the MJO phases 2–4 (6–7) and suggested that certain MJO phases
are preceded by the occurrence of strong NAO patterns. Cassou (2008) demonstrated that when the MJO
Phase 6 (Phase 3) occurs in the boreal winter, between 10 and 15 days in advance, the occurrence probability
of negative (positive) NAO is significantly enhanced. Muñoz et al. (2015) found that Phases 2 and 3 (6 and 7)
of the MJO tend to be related to the occurrence of extremely wet (dry) rainfall events in southeastern
America, up to 12 (14) days in advance. Henderson et al. (2016) determined a statistically significant link
between the MJO and the European ridge pattern. Vitart and Robertson (2018) provided evidence that some
extreme events over Europe are linked to an MJO phase propagating over the Pacific Ocean. However, to the
best of our knowledge, the relationship between the MJO and rainfall over Morocco, as a hot spot located
between tropics and midlatitudes, has not yet been explored. In this study, we investigate the relationship
between the MJO and the Euro‐Mediterranean weather regimes, and we explore the influence of the MJO
on winter rainfall patterns over Morocco with the aim of examining predictability at the extended‐range
of extreme rainfall events in this country. These relationships may help weather and climate forecasters to
improve intraseasonal prediction by understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of the MJO influ-
ence, which can have an important effect on climate‐sensitive sectors.
This paper is organized as follows: the data and methodology are given in section 2. In section 3, we discuss
results of weather regimes over the Euro‐Mediterranean domain and their relationship to rainy conditions
over Morocco, before presenting the results of the MJO impact upon rainfall patterns in Morocco. The last
section summarizes the main results.
2. Data and Methodology

2.1. Data
Rainfall amounts over Morocco are derived from records of 28 meteorological stations belonging to the
synoptic network of the Moroccan National Meteorological service for the 1985–2014
December‐January‐February (DJF) period. These observations are provided after undergoing quality control
according to the recommendations of the World Meteorological Organization, presenting less than 1% of
missing values.
The MJO indices are extracted using the Real‐Time Multivariate MJO index (RMM) (Wheeler &
Hendon, 2004), which is publicly available from the website of the Australia Meteorological Bureau
(http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/). The RMM is based on a pair of principal component (RMM1 and
RMM2) time series derived from empirical orthogonal functions of near‐equatorially averaged outgoing
longwave radiation, 200‐hPa zonal wind, and 850‐hPa zonal wind. The RMM is divided into eight phases,
each corresponding to a broad location of the MJO enhanced convective signal. Phases 2 and 3 correspond
to the Indian Ocean, 4‐5 to the Maritime Continent, 6‐7 to the Western Pacific, and 8‐1 to the Western
Hemisphere. In the present study, the amplitude of RMM index greater than 1 is considered to be an active
MJO Phase.
To identify the weather regimes (WRs) commonly affecting the Euro‐Mediterranean domain, we perform a
K‐means cluster analysis (Michelangeli et al., 1995; Muñoz et al., 2017) on the 500‐hPa geopotential height
anomaly. These data are derived from the ERA‐interim reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for
Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts at 0.75° by 0.75° horizontal resolution (Berrisford et al., 2011). The
cluster analysis is performed for the wintertime season (DJF) over the time period ranging from December
1985 to February 2014. In order to focus on the Euro‐Mediterranean region, the domain used for the cluster
analysis ranges from 20°N to 70°N and from 70°W to 45°E.
2.2. Methodology
Weather regimes affecting the Euro‐Mediterranean domain were classified using the K‐means clustering
method (Diday & Simon, 1976). The latter is an iterative clustering procedure that consists of partitioning
the data into K clusters where members within each cluster are similar to each other but separated as much
as possible from members of other clusters. K‐means is described with more details in Michelangeli et al.
(1995) and more recently by Muñoz et al. (2017). Before applying the K‐means clustering, an EOF prefilter-
ing is performed, and the leading EOFs accounting for 95% of the total variance in the 500‐hPa geopotential
height are retained. To choose the optimal number of clusters based on their rainfall discrimination abilities,
Santos et al. (2005) suggested the following information criterion (IC):
K
IC ¼ ∑i¼1 ni;r − pr *ni (1)
where ni,r is the number of days in cluster i with a rainfall amount greater than the threshold r, pr is the prob-
ability of such rainfall days in the whole population, ni is the number of days within the cluster i, and K is the
total number of clusters. The main principle of the IC formula is to look for the optimum number of clusters
that maximizes the absolute value of the contribution of each cluster in the total occurrence of days with
rainfall greater than a specific threshold. Note that the information given by the IC is still influenced by
the occurrence probability of each cluster compared to others. To overcome this limitation, we introduce
a weighted information criterion (WIC) as the sum of the differences between the probability of having days
with rainfall greater than a threshold during a specific cluster and the probability of having such rainfall days
in the whole population. Then, we multiply the obtained sum by 100 to get a percentage:
K ni;r K ni;r − pr *ni

WIC ¼ ∑i¼1 − pr *100 ¼ ∑i¼1 *100 (2)
ni ni
Note that contrary to the IC index (equation 1), WIC is weighted by the inverse of the total occurrence of
each cluster (equation 2) allowing all clusters to be equally weighted independently to their relative number
of occurrences. Henceforth, in order to have a better metric to assess the ability of clusters to discriminate
rainfall days, we recommend the use of WIC instead of the IC index. For this study, we adopt the WIC cri-
terion using the threshold r = 1 mm. This threshold is suggested by the World Meteorological Organization
as an adequate one to discriminate between wet and dry days.
To study the link between MJO, weather regimes and precipitation in Morocco, we perform a threefold com-
parison: First, the relationship between WRs and wintertime rainfall patterns is explored; followed by the
influence of MJO on the WRs; and finally, the impact of the MJO on rainfall variability in Morocco.
To examine the influence of MJO on weather regimes, we follow the methodology used in Cassou (2008),
and Muñoz et al. (2015). For the eight MJO phases and for time lags of up to 15 days (MJO phases lagged
in advance), we examine the occurrence probability of above (below) normal of each weather regime by
dividing the total number of days with this specific weather regime in a given MJO phase by the total number
of the occurrences of that composite MJO phase; we then compare this ratio with the climatological occur-
rence of the specific weather regime in the whole time series:
mi;WR
mi − QWR
M ði; WRÞ ¼ *100 (3)
QWR
where mi,WR is the total number of days with a specific weather regime WR in a given MJO phase i (i = 1,8),
mi is the total number of occurrences of the MJO in phase i, and QWR is the probability of the climatological
occurrence of the weather regime WR.
As explained in Cassou (2008), the occurrence probability M(i,WR) = 0% means that the MJO phase i is not
discriminative for the WR regime whose occurrence is equal to the climatological mean. M(i,WR) = 100%
Figure 1. The weighted information criterion (WIC) based on daily rainfall (threshold of 1 mm) calculated as the median
of all WIC values of pixels over the Euro‐Mediterranean domain (25–50°N; −20°W to 35°E) using daily ERA interim
rainfall.
means that WR occurs twice as frequently as its climatological mean, and M(i,WR) = −100% means no
occurrence of WR.
In line with Lin et al. (2009), statistical significance of the M(i,WR) values is tested by performing a Monte
Carlo method using a nonparametric approach, where we randomly shuffle the order of years for the WR
time series and recompute the composite probability. We then count how many times the probability
exceeds that of the actual composite, relative to the sequence of the observed MJO phases. This operation
is performed 500 times producing 500 simulated M(i,WR) from which we calculate the two quantiles Q5
and Q95. If the observed M(i,WR) are greater (lower) than Q95 (Q5), they are then considered significant
at a 0.05 level (Lin et al., 2009). The advantage of this method is that it makes no assumption about the nor-
mality of data and gives an accurate estimate of what can be obtained by chance while maintaining the
dependency between daily data.
In order to measure the intraseasonal impact of MJO on wintertime rainfall observed over Morocco, we aver-
aged the influence of the eight MJO phases over the time lags between 10 and 15 days (MJO in advance). We
adopt the same statistical model described in equation 3 by generating, for each meteorological station, the
occurrence probability of above (below) normal of rainfall events in a given MJO phase by dividing the total
number of days for which total rainfall is above the climatological mean, by the total number of occurrence
of that composite (MJO phase); then we compare this ratio to the occurrence frequency of rainfall above the
climatological mean. This operation is performed for each lag between 10 and 15 days (MJO in advance) and
the average of the obtained values is adopted as the final metric measuring the impact of MJO on
rainfall patterns.
3. Results
3.1. Wintertime Weather Regimes and Transitions
3.1.1. Weather Regimes
As mentioned, a K‐means clustering was applied to daily 500‐hPa geopotential height anomaly field for DJF
1985–2014, exploring solutions from two to ten clusters with the goal of deciding the optimal number of
weather regimes by using the WIC criterion. According to Figure 1, the WIC criterion shows a weak increase
from two to six clusters, while the most important increase is detected from six to seven clusters. We select
K = 7 as the optimal number of weather regimes to consider in this study. This number is consistent with
Vrac and Yiou (2010) when describing weather regimes over the Mediterranean region.
Figure 2 depicts the seven weather regimes with their percentage of occurrence and we can clearly identify
the structure of the NAO+ regime within WR1 as the most frequent weather regime, with 18% of the total
time series, and which is characterized by a strong southwest‐northeast ridge with positive geopotential
height anomalies centered over western Europe. WR2 describes an European ridge regime (EuRG) charac-
terizing the maximum of geopotential centered over France and north of Italy.WR6 and WR7 both show a
dipole of negative geopotential anomalies over central Europe and positive anomalies centered over
Figure 2. Winter time Euro‐Mediterranean weather regimes (WRs) obtained from daily anomalous geopotential height at 500 hPa (m).
Greenland, which describe the feature of the NAO− regime. However, the WR6 regime corresponds more to
a shifted NAO− since the negative geopotential height anomalies do not cover the southwestern part of
Europe as it is the case for the well‐established NAO− regime. For this reason, we assign the WR7 regime
to NAO− while the WR6 regime can be related to a zonal dipole (ZDip). The Scandinavian Blocking
(ScBl) regime of Cassou (2008) is well represented by the WR3 regime, while the WR5 regime describes a
Northern Atlantic Blocking (NABl) covering the area from the Northern Atlantic up to the western part
of Asia. The WR4 regime looks more like the Atlantic Ridge (AR) regime of Cassou (2008), which is charac-
terized by positive geopotential height anomalies over the central and the northern Atlantic.
3.1.2. Transitions Between Weather Regimes
In this subsection, we explore the preferred transitions between the studied seven weather regimes. Since the
number of weather regimes in this study is relatively high, we define a weather regime by a minimum dura-
tion period of two consecutive days. The occurrence probabilities of transitions from a given regime to
another are displayed in Table 1. The statistical Chi‐Square test is used to compare the significance of the
observed frequency of a transition obtained by a given regime with those obtained by the other regimes.
Like most of previous studies, more interest will be given to the mechanisms that lead to the NAO
−/NAO+ regimes. The preferred transitions showed in Table 1 with statistically significance at the 90% level
are WR3− > WR5− > WR7 and WR3− > WR2− > WR1, which means that the Scandinavian blocking more
likely moves either west‐poleward to establish a NAO‐ regime, or down‐westward to form the NAO+
regime. The latter is mostly established after a transition to the European Ridge (WR2) while the emergence
of the NAO− regime (WR7) is obtained through the rise of the Northern Atlantic Blocking (WR5, Figure 3).
These transitions are consistent with the theory of the retrograde propagation of height anomalies over
northern Europe. The retrograde displacement of the Scandinavian blocking before the onset of NAO−
was noticed by many studies (Cassou, 2008; Feldstein, 2003). Besides, Sung et al. (2011) and Luo et al. (2012)
suggested that NAO− events tend to be preceded by a blocking ridge in the vicinity of northern Europe,
Table 1
Relative Frequency of Occurrence (%)Using Two Successive Days to Define WRs
WR1(NAO+) WR2(EuRG) WR3(ScBl) WR4(AR) WR5(NABl) WR6(ZDip) WR7(NAO−)
WR1 — 37.7 18.5 11.2 4.9 13.2 0.0

WR2 27.4 — 24.7 32.9 4.1 6.8 4.1
WR3 6.8 30.1 — 12.3 30.1 12.3 8.2
WR4 18.8 21.9 23.4 — 28.1 3.1 4.7
WR5 14.8 4.9 23.0 24.6 — 1.6 31.1
WR6 22.7 18.2 18.2 9.1 13.6 — 18.2
WR7 15.4 7.7 10.3 7.7 20.5 38.5 —
Note. The transition goes from left to the right. Significant values at 90% level of chi‐square test are in bold.
which is in agreement with our results showing the Northern Atlantic

Blocking (NABl) as a transitional pattern to reach the NAO− regime.
Feldstein (2003) attributed the formation of the NAO+ to the merger and
propagation of a positive anomaly centered over western Europe, while
other previous studies have related this formation to the rise and the dis-
placement of a subpolar negative height (Luo et al., 2012; Sung et al., 2011)
over the western North Atlantic Greenland. Whatever the cause, these
results do not contradict each other, and are in accordance with the pre-
ferred transition WR3− > WR2− > WR1. Besides, Figure 3 shows that
the transition WR7− > WR6− > WR1 is another sequence leading to
the emergence of NAO+. This latter preferred route is mostly due to the
Figure 3. Diagram of the main transitions leading to NAO− regime decay of the NAO− and the rise of a positive height in the southwestern
according to the frequency percentage of transition (weather regime is part of the Euro‐Mediterranean domain, which is in agreement with what
defined by two successive days). was previously shown by Luo et al. (2012) in their Figure 5. Note that the
controversial direct transition from NAO+ to blocking regime was not
detected in this study. Hannachi and Legras (1995) noticed that this transition is achieved through the
Atlantic ridge regime (AR), which supports our transition path NAO+− > EuRG− > AR− > NABl
(see Table 1).
Our findings, based on seven weather regimes, confirm the well‐known preferred transition blocking to
NAO− but give more details about this route by introducing the role played by the Northern Atlantic
Blocking regime (European ridge) as a bridge for the ScBl to transition to NAO− (NAO+) through retro-
grade propagation. In addition, we detected the existence of two mechanisms leading to the formation of
the NAO+, one triggered by the displacement of the ScBl to the EuRG and the other as a consequence of
the NAO− decay accompanied by a positive anomaly in the southwestern part of the
Euro‐Mediterranean domain.
Finally, the emergence of other weather regimes within the transitions from the ScBl to NAO−/NAO+ were
not described elsewhere in previous studies because they explored only the four common weather regimes.
This latter classification acts as a smoother that implicitly hides some transition signals, which may even-
tually arise with additional clustering classes. Hence, although different K‐means solutions for this and other
geographical domains can be equally plausible from a statistical point of view, the analysis of physical
mechanisms and regime transitions provides the ultimate selection rule for the number of clusters to use.
3.2. Weather Regimes and Rainfall in Morocco
The relationship between the seven weather regimes and rainfall occurrence probabilities over Morocco is
examined with a similar statistical model previously described by equation 3, using only daily total rainfall
versus daily weather regimes. For each day, we calculate the percentage of enhancement (reduction) of the
occurrence probability of rainfall events above the climatological mean for a given weather regime at the 28
meteorological stations.
Figure 4 displays the spatial distribution of the percentage anomalous change in occurrence, relative to each
station's long‐term mean, for each of the seven atmospheric regimes. The WR7 (NAO−) and WR5 (NABl)
are clearly associated with generalized wetter conditions over Morocco. During these regimes, the occur-
rence of above‐normal rainfall over most of the stations is twice as frequently as its climatological mean
(~+100%). WR3, the Scandinavian blocking‐like regime, favors southwesterly low geopotential height
anomalies, which bring rainy conditions over the southwest/northeast axis of Morocco. In contrast, WR2
and WR4 are associated with drier conditions for all the stations, illustrating thereby the impact of the high
geopotential height anomalies that prevail over large part of Europe and North Africa during the EuRG and
the AR regimes. WR1, the NAO+ like regime, even if it is associated with less wetter conditions, tends to be
slightly less discriminant to rainfall amounts, compared to the other regimes.
3.3. Impact of the MJO on Euro‐Mediterranean Weather Regimes
To better understand the impact of the MJO over the Euro‐Mediterranean domain, we examine the response
of the atmospheric circulation regimes to this tropical oscillation. In Figure 5, we present the percentage
anomalous change in occurrence, given by equation 3, of the seven weather regimes obtained for this
Figure 4. The percentage contribution (%, indicated by the size of the circles) of the WRs in the occurrence of rainfall amounts (above the climatological mean)
over Morocco. A value of 100% means that the regime occurs twice as frequently as its climatological mean.
study, at lags of 1–15 days after an active MJO phase occurs. We focus here on positive lags (MJO in advance)
because of its relevance to extended‐range prediction over our studied area.
The results depicted in Figure 5 are consistent with the findings of L'Heureux and Higgins (2008),
Cassou (2008), Lin et al. (2009), and Roundy et al. (2010), that noted an increase in NAO‐ events approxi-
mately 10–15 days after the occurrence of an MJO event in Phases 6–7. Likewise, the occurrences of NAO
Figure 5. Lagged percentage contribution (%) of active MJO, discriminated by its phases, in the occurrence of WRs, compared to the climatological mean. Red
(blue) bars denote statistically significant (not significant) values at the 95% level based on a Monte Carlo test (see main text). A value of 100% means that the
regime occurs twice as frequently as its climatological mean, while a value of −100% indicates that the regime does not occur.
Figure 6. The percentage contribution (%) by each MJO phase to rainfall amounts (above the mean) over Morocco, averaged over a 10‐ to 15‐day window previous
to an active MJO event.
+ (WR1) events are enhanced 10–15 days after the MJO phases 3–4 occur. The ScBl (WR3) seems to be
excited after about 10–15 days of an active MJO in Phase 2, while the EuRG (WR2) is mostly triggered
5–12 days after an active MJO in Phase 3.This latter MJO phase acts as a precursor of the NAO+ at greater
lags (13–15 days), which reinforces the hypothesis of the preferred transition ScBl− > EuRG− > NAO+
aforementioned in section 3.1. Michel and Rivière (2011) has suggested that Anticyclonic Wave Breakings
(AWBs) participate in the formation of the Blocking, which is in line with the link showed between the
ScBl regime and the MJO in Phase 2 (Figure 5). This latter case is known as a precursor of AWBs over the
northern Euro‐Atlantic domain (Cassou, 2008). In contrast, the other mechanism leading to NAO+ through
the transitions WR7− > WR6− > WR1 is less likely to be related to the MJO cycle, and it is more probably
due to the in situ development (decay) of midlatitude geopotential heights.
By comparing Figure 5 with Cassou (2008), the Scandinavian Blocking regime seems to be represented in
our study by both WR3 (ScBl) and WR5 (NABl). Indeed, the WR5, which is excited at short lags when an
active MJO is in phase 6, corresponds to the component discussed in Cassou (2008) as a predecessor regime
to the NAO−. In contrast, the WR3 represents the component related to the active MJO in phase 2 (not dis-
cussed in Cassou, 2008). This new weather regime discrimination allowed to identify for the first time the
transition ScBl− > EuRG− > NAO+, and its relationship to the MJO.
Overall, considering Figure 5 and Table 1, it seems that the MJO in phase 2 excites the development of the
Scandinavian blocking through the AWBs, whose persistence during MJO in \Phase 3 triggers the transition
ScBl− > EuRG− > NAO+. In contrast, in absence of AWBs, such as when the ScBl arises during an active
MJO in Phase 6, it is more probable to expect the emergence of the NABl regime, which mainly leads to a
NAO‐ regime. It is worth noting that some exceptions can be expected when other climate phenomena,
for example, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, strongly modulate the large‐scale atmospheric circulation in
the region under study. The cross‐timescale interference approach described by Muñoz
et al. (2015, 2016, 2017) could be used in this case to integrate the effect of climate drivers at multiple time-
scales, but its application is outside the scope of the present study.
3.4. Impact of the MJO on Wintertime Rainfall Over Morocco

To investigate the influence of the MJO phases on the variability of rainfall patterns over Morocco, we aver-
age the rainfall frequency change over a 10–15 days window after each active MJO phase occurs. As with the
previous analysis conducted here, these contributions are expressed in percentage frequency change; for
example, +100% indicates that the number of occurrence of rainfall above the mean value is twice the clima-
tological mean occurrence, while −100% would indicate no occurrence of rainfall above the mean
(see Figure 6).
A first diagnosis of the Figure 6 shows that the occurrence probability of above‐normal rainfall in Morocco is
clearly modulated 10–15 days in advance by active MJO events. Indeed, generalized negative rainfall anoma-
lies can be observed over the entire Morocco as a response to a 10–15 days lagged MJO event in Phases 2–4.
This is due to the established relationships between the EuRG, the AR (NAO+) and the NAO+ regimes, and
the MJO event in Phases 2–4, respectively. These latter WRs, as explained in section 3.2, are associated with
dry conditions (Figure 4). In contrast, an active MJO in phase 6 is conducive to rainy conditions by enhan-
cing the probability of occurrence of the NAO− and NABl regimes (Figure 5). Furthermore, an active MJO in
phase 8 showed similar patterns as the phase 6, which seems to be related to the increase of the occurrence of
the ScBl excited 11–15 days in advance and the NABl at a greater lag time (14–15 days).
In summary, the rainy conditions in Morocco are mostly associated with active MJO events in phases 6 and 8
occurring 10–15 days in advance. Similarly, dry conditions are more likely to be expected 10 to 15 days after
active MJO events in Phases 2–4.
4. Conclusions
In this study a K‐means cluster analysis of daily 500‐hPa geopotential height anomalies was performed in
order to identify recurrent weather regimes over the Euro‐Mediterranean domain. Using ERA‐Interim daily
rainfall data, a new weighted information measure (WIC) was introduced to achieve a maximum discrimi-
nation of the contribution of weather regimes to rainfall anomalies in Morocco. The WIC and physical ana-
lysis allowed the identification of seven weather regimes over the area under study: NAO+, EuRG, ScBl, AR,
NABl, ZDip, and NAO−.
Analysis of preferred transitions between the seven WRs reveal the well‐known transition route leading to
the NAO−: ScBl− > NABl− > NAO−, in agreement with the westward displacement of the high blocking
in northern Atlantic. In addition, two transition paths to reach the NAO+ regime were found: ScBl− >
EuRG− > NAO+ and NAO− > ZDip− > NAO+. The former was attributed to the excitation of the ScBl
by an active MJO in Phase 2, followed by an active MJO in Phase 3 as a precursor to the European ridge
regime, and then the emergence of NAO+. In contrast, the NAO− − > ZDip‐ > NAO+ transition seemed
to be less influenced by the evolution of the MJO, and it is more probably related to midlatitude in situ decay
of the NAO−.
The examination of the links between the seven WRs identified in this study and the observed rainfall pat-
terns over Morocco showed that the NAO− and NABl (NAO+, EuBl, and AR) regimes are associated with
more (less) rainfall amounts, in agreement with the typical geopotential height anomalies prevailing over
the study area.
The exploration of the lagged impact of the MJO on the atmospheric circulation patterns suggests a delayed
response of the NAO+ (NAO−) regime to the MJO in phase 3 (phase 6), in agreement with previous studies
(Cassou, 2008; Lin et al., 2009). Furthermore, it is shown that an active MJO in phase 2 is a precursor for the
Acknowledgments
The authors thank the DMN (Direction Scandinavian blocking regime (WR3) preceding the EuRG, which leads to the NAO+ onset. Moreover, the
de la Météorologie Nationale, Morocco) enhanced occurrence of the north Atlantic blocking regime at short lag time in MJO Phase 6 before the rise
for providing observed rainfall data
of the NAO− regime is in line with the aforementioned transition NABl− > NAO−.
from its network of synoptic stations.
These quality controlled data are avail- This work has also demonstrated the impact of the MJO signal on the modulation of rainfall variability over
able either for researchers from the
DMN or for projects whose DMN is
Morocco through an enhancement (reduction) of the probability of wet (dry) conditions 10 to 15 days after
part, while non‐post‐quality controlled the occurrence of an active MJO in Phases 6 and 8 (Phases 2‐3‐4), in agreement with the WRs excited by
data can be derived from the Global these MJO phases.
Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD;
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data‐- These results support the hypothesis that the MJO produces a dynamical forcing on midlatitude atmospheric
access/land‐based‐station‐data/land‐-
circulations which, in turn, modulates the rainfall patterns over Morocco. The observed lagged linkage
based‐datasets). The source of the other
data used in this study are freely avail- between the weather regimes and the MJO is promising, and offers the opportunity to improve weather
able at http://www.bom.gov.au/cli- and subseasonal forecasts at medium and extended‐range time scales (10–45 days), which could have great
mate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.
impact on decision‐making processes in key socioeconomic sectors.
txt for the RMM index, and for the Z500
and rainfall era‐interim fields (at
https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/
interim‐full‐daily/levtype=sfc/). Á.G
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JGR Atmospheres - 2020 - Gadouali - On The Link Between The Madden Julian Oscillation Euro Mediterranean Weather Regimes

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INTRODUCTION TO On the Link Between the Madden‐Julian Oscillation,

A SPECIAL Euro‐Mediterranean Weather Regimes, and

2. Data and Methodology

K ni;r K ni;r − pr *ni

WR1 — 37.7 18.5 11.2 4.9 13.2 0.0

which is in agreement with our results showing the Northern Atlantic

3.4. Impact of the MJO on Wintertime Rainfall Over Morocco

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