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Identification of Independent Rainstorms

Article in Journal of Hydrology · February 1982

DOI: 10.1016/0022-1694(82)90136-6

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 303
Journal ofHydroiogy, 55 (1982) 303-319
Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Amsterdam - Printed in The Netherlands

[1)

IDENTIFICATION OF INDEPENDENT RAINSTORMS

PEDRO J. RESTItEPO-POSADA and PETER S. EAGLESON

Technology, Cambridge,
Department of Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of
MA 02139 (U.S.A.)
(Received September 25, 1980; revised and accepted January 28, 1981)

ABSTRACT
Restrepo-Posada, P.J. and Eagleson, P.S., 1982. Identification of independent rainstorms.
J. Hydrol., 55: 303-319.
An easily-applied approximate criterion is proposed for the separation of point-
precipitation records into statistically-independent storms. The criterion is tested success-
fully in parameter estimation for Poisson models of annual rainfall frequency in an arid
climate. Analysis of rainfall records from a wide range of climates produces an empirical
relation for estimating the minimum time between independent rainstorms, given only
the mean annual rainfall and the mean length of the rainy season.

INTRODUCTION

Stochastic representation of precipitation regimes plays an important role

in the analysis and design of many water-resources systems. For example,
simulation of the long-term rainfall-runoff behavior of catchments requires
the stochastic simulation of daily or hourly precipitation (Grayman and
Eagleson, 1971); and derivation of the probability distributions of dependent
hydrologic variables such as peak streamflow (Eagleson, 1972), flood volume
(Chan and Bras, 1979) and annual water yield (Eagleson, 1978b) requires
manipulation of the probability density functions (p.d.f.'s) of storm precipi-
tation.
These methods all require estimates of the parameters of chosen p.d.f.'s,
using available precipitation data. A troublesome problem associated with
this activity is the separation of the time stream of recorded precipitation
into statistically-independent events. This is necessary when utilizing certain
standard stochastic representations such as the Poisson arrival process
(Todorovic and Yevjevich, 1969), and is convenient when studying any system
having appreciable memory since it avoids the troublesome use of conditional
p.d.f.'s.
We offer here a solution to this problem that, though empirical and in-
exact, should be attractive in many design situations.

0022-1694182/0000-0000/502.75 ©1982 Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company

DON002571
304

BACKGROUND

Storms tend to arrive in clusters. Multiple mesoscale precipitation events

are imbedded in a single synoptic scale disturbance and each mesoscale event
may produce intervals of rainfall followed by hours or even days without
rainfall before the next one arrives (Eagleson, 1970, p. 192). Certainly, sep-
arate precipitation events having a common parent larger-scale disturbance
are to some degree related. Because this relationship is both geographically
and seasonally variable, the definition of independence criteria through
study of the physics of storm generation is felt to be impractical at this
time. Instead, a "black-box" statistical method for identifying independent
events will be sought.
The continuous record of point-rainfall intensity typically looks as shown
in Fig. la. Rainfall of highly-variable intensity, i, occurs continuously for
time, tr, during which a total depth, h, falls. These rainfall events, which we
shall call "storms", are separated in time by rainless periods of duration, tb .
By definition (see also the Notation for symbols used in this paper):
fr

h = (storm depth) idt (1)

= f
0

and
tx =(storm interarrival time) = t, + t, (2)
in general, a ramstorm is a realization of a non-homogeneous multivariate
random generating process. The heterogeneity arises primarily from the dif-
ferent cooling mechanisms responsible for producing storms at a given lo-
cation. These mechanisms produce storm types with different characteristic
distributions of the constituent random variables: storm depth, storm dur-
ation, and time since the last storm. When the storm types are well-segregated
seasonally (e.g., convective in the summer andcyclonic inthe winter) model-
lers of point-rainfall sequences may account for the heterogeneity by using
distributions of the constituent random variables that have seasonally-varying
parameters (Todorovic and Yevjevich, 1969). When the cooling mechanisms
are well-mixed temporally, the modeller has a choice of adding the outputs
of homogeneous generating processes for each storm type, or of defining a
single generating process having a lower order of homogeneity in .which
storm type (i.e. cooling mechanism) is one of the constituent random vari-
ables.
In what follows, we assume that the homogeneity issue has been dealt
with, and we address only the identification of independent events from
homogeneous populations.
It seems intuitively clear that statistical independence of samples of a
particular constituent variable will increase with the time between the events
from which those samples are drawn. There should, theref4re, be a minimum

DON002572
 305

(D Continuous Actual Process

= Wiue of areae hZ` Value of

areas

L
© Idealized InUepenaent Events

I' er^

^ tOI

Fig. 1. Definition sketch for storm parameters.

separation time between samples that is necessary in order to gain any pre-
scribed degree of independence. Unfortunately, however, this is a multi-
variate process and we have no assurance that the minimum time between
samples of storm depth (for example) will bring the same degree of indepen-
dence between the associated values of storm duration, or that the arrivals
of the events from which the samples of depth were drawn are themselves
independent to at least this degree.
To avoid separate investigations of independence for each constituent ran-
dom variable, it would be useful to work only with the single variable for
which the actual generating process has the longest "memory", that is, for

DON002573
306

NOTATION
List of symbols used

CV[coefficient of variation
E[' ] expected value
fx(x) probability density function (p.d.f. of x)
F'g(x) cumulative distribution function (c.d.f. of x)
h storm depth
i storm intensity
k value of probability density of rainy season length
mp, average seasonal precipitation
mtr average storm duration
m" seasonal average number of storms
mr average length of rainy season
r square root of coefficient of determination
t„ storm interarrival time
time between storms
minimum tim between independent storms
tb^_a minimum time between storms
lr storm duration
inverse of the mean time between storms
a shape parameter in the gamma distribution
a[ • ] standard deviation of [' I
w inverse of the mean storm interarrival time = mean storm arrival rate
r length of rainy season
rc minimum lengtb of rainy season
p[' ] Pearson's incomplete gamma function of [•]
y[ •] incomplete gamma function of [' ]

which the minimum sample separation for independence is maximum. Sam-

ples of all other variables taken from the events so-defined would then be
independent to no less a degree.
Grace and Eagleson (1967) and Sariahmed and Kisiel (1968) chose the
storm depth for this purpose. They used a significance test of the rank cor-
relation coefficient to define the minimum time, tbo , between recorded rain-
falls that is necessary for negligible serial correlation of successive storm
depths. For convective storms, they found t,a to be from 2 hr. (New England)
to 3 hr. (Arizona). Although zero serial correlation is a necessary but insuf-
ficient condition for independence of the storm depths, these investigators
used this method not only to obtain a sample of independent storm depths
but also to separate independent storm arrivals.
At best, independence of successive storm depths can probably be only a
necessary condition for independence of successive storm arrivals. Causality
suggests that if the rainless time separating successive rainfall events increases,
we may expect the statistical dependence of these event.s to decrease in all
dimensions. In other words, if independence of successive samples of any
single constituent variable can be used as a sufficient condition for indepen-
dence of successive samples of the other variables, that single variable is
probably the time between storms.

DON002574
 307

We will now propose a practical criterion for independence of successive

storm arrivals.

INDEPENDENCE OF STORM ARRIVALS

The Poisson process describes the completely random arrival of events

which are "point" or "instantaneous" occurrences in that their durations are
zero. For such events, the usual derivations ( e.g., Benjamin and Cornell,
1970) use the binomial theorem to show that the distribution of intervals,
ta's, between Poisson arrivals is distributed exponentially:

fTa(ta) = we wt0., ts > 0 (3)

where w = average storm arrival rate.

Arguing from the ensemble viewpoint, Cox and Lewis ( 1966, p. 23)
demonstrate that a stationary series of events having interarrival times dis-
tributed according to eq. 3 is a Poisson process. Thus, for events of zero
duration, the validity of eq. 3 is a sufficient condition for independence of
successive arrivals.
As pointed out by Cox and Lewis ( 1966, p. 18), the Poisson process is
only a mathematical concept and:
"no real phenomenon can be expected to be exactly in accord with it."

In this application, the arrivals have finite duration, t„ which raises the prob-
lem of overlapping events. With:
mtr = (mean storm duration) and w t = (mean time between
storm arrivals)
we can expect the Poisson process to adequately describe the arrivals of
independent rainstorms, provided:
wmir G<1 (4)
Since the origin of the exponentially-distributed arrival time is arbitrary
for the true ( i.e. instantaneous event) Poisson process (
Cox and Lewis, 1966,
p. 22), we may expect the time between storms, tE„ in our application to be
exponentially distributed with the same goodness-of-fit as ta. Once again, the
only interference with precision-of-fit is the magnitude of the product, wmtr.
We thus expect:

fT,(tb) = Re Rrd, tn > 0 (5)

It is expected that the "raw" storms, as defined in Fig, la, are not inde-
pendent. For small tb, the probability of having rainfall in the next ©tb is
relatively large due to the likelihood of continued imbedment within the
same synoptic or even mesoscale event. When the rainless time separating
successive rainfall events increases, we expect the stochastic dependence of

DON002575
308

these events to vanish and the probability of rainfall in the next Atb to de-
cline toward the small, but constant, value associated with a successful
set of naturally-occurring rainless periods will thus
Bernoulli trial. The full
not follow the exponential distribution due to the inclusion therein of small
tb's which separate dependent events. To demonstrate this, we will examine
the distribution of the complete set of observed tb's for the six primary (i.e.
long, hourly record) stations of Table I. These distributions are presented in
Fig. 2 where they are compared with the exponential as fitted by setting the
mean value of the exponential distribution equal to the sample mean. The
poor fit is as expected.
To obtain exponentiality and, therefore, an independent set of events, for
these series, we will first successively redefine the storms, as shown in Fig. lc,
incorporating within the appropriate new event all rainless periods tb < tbmin -
We continue our assumption that wm1t << 1.
Values of this parameter are
tabulated in Table I. When the rainless period separating two rainy periods
has a duration less than this value, tbm^n, called the minimum time between
storms the two rainy periods belong to the same storm. Otherwise, they
form parts of different storms. Tests at successively larger values of tbm+n
should ultimately bring sufficient exponentiality to the distribution, jTb (tb).
The value of tbm,n for which this occurs is called tbo and will establish the
set of independent storms.

A PRACTICAI. INDEPENDENCE CRITERION

One commonly-used test of exponentiality is the X2 - test (

Gnedenko, et al.,
1969, p. 229), but this is expensive to apply repetitively and requires use of
a subjective significance level. As a more convenient although theoretically-
insufficient substitute, we will test for the property of exponential distri-
butions that their mean and standard deviation are equal. The insufficiency
of this test arises from the fact that there are other feasible distributions that
may have this property ( the log-normal and triangular distributions, for
example). Its adoption in spite of this possible ambiguity results from ex-
perience in the analysis of many rainfall records showing, as in Fig. 2, a near-
exponential distribution of the natural events.
From eq. 5, the mean time between independent storms is:
(6)
E[tbJ = R-'
and the standard deviation is:
attbJ = p-, (7)
The coefficient of variation of the exponential distribution is thus
CV[tbj = oLtbJ/E[tbJ = 1 (8)
In using the simple exponential rather than the shifted or truncated-and-

DON002576
 309

M<DOt` CONTd'.^N^DO^O ^ri Na0

N O^ C' 0? V M t0 M CJ ^-1 rl O^ N t[J N t0 O
NspN a6 Mt-L^*ic-b^"MC+J.+000

^ µ^ .+ M t` N W O u^ N N H^ c0 0^0 0 0
^ M NODh0u9c01TtD
NN^C1Q>C^ ^LOm d^Om Nd^O
.-^.+NN^d'+-^ Mm d' d'M m NtNN^

0000^+N00tiNOttl'OOT V'N
d^m ^^1NONN MeMMN C-OCi rit^
N M cO ri tD N n 6^ ^J 1' fO O Vi Oi .i W O
^y .yNC^d^ d'mN^tl'mT 0^.9
^i

.i t^ u)00OOQ+000 oOOOOO
m t^d^ u'JOiO T u,1CiQ^<p.O^ N^^^

O Nm000^94U, •'+OT^OdI`O tiO

<N+]ti000iNt cmOe^O<OG^^MC+Ml^OiCO ri
r N ti

u)^G<De-^ OC^^D90tiOMC• Nm NfNT

iryq^mN V'htiOTNN^D^Dt`NmM
OO^ti^NN.-iNtir+NNOti^ N
O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O

O
N
^t1 MON^0^6^N^N^0^f1NNN0

_T _T_T _TTTT

4=°
s°.4°.°

A^ ^
^ c00
zzzcSoo3
^ g

H . ^ o_
F I ga• 0
^y¢Gtrx^"Ax4awA ^sca^c^^

«
0 ..^cvM^ru><atiaorno-,cva.>v^^mm^
z ti ti ti ti.y ti ti ti

DON002577
310
rescaled exponential, we are implicitly assuming that the population of inde-
pendent events actually contains values in the range 0 < tp < tb even though
chosen criterion for independen ce does not permit their identification.
our
To identify the independent fraction of these events separated by tb < tb ,
we would need a criterion which examined individual events.

4-
^ Ir .,^ 1 1+

+a
^

^ }I {I^ II

i1xE 6EEYEFx •IONN` (xxuuX51

.p^i1 COIHIIi[0 E+GOHExiI^nlF50 St.

eE.^EEx S.Oxny w0^^a51

o^u eoix' ^°o ExoahE„;i^L o^s..

DON002578
 311

tiNE BatYEEN Si08N5 ( NO^1N5)

OniA POIE11lE0 IT
No141.

i1NE BEivEEN SlOVN15 100Y89

BntA VOIN'tiEO EMP9HEMlINAL Ol$T.

BEiNFEX 5108N5 IMOVRS)

SIAI
Onfn P0lflil(0 ERPONENtIOlV01E51.

assuming
Fig. 2. Fitting of observed time between storms to an exponential distaibution,
all events independent.

DON002579
312

For small ten y", we have seen in Fig. 2(where tb mln = 0) that the obser-
vations follow a distribution having a standard deviation much larger than
the mean. For small tbtherefore, the observations give CV[t„ )> 1.
For increasing tbmin, the observed distribution of tb is truncated and re-
scaled. This will nierease the ,nean of tb while maintaining all central mo-
ments (including a) almost the same (as the distribution Of tb is approxi-
mately exponential in this range). The coefficient of variation Of t(, will
thus be driven toward zero as tbmi. increases.
We will choose the tbmi„ at which the observed CV [tb ] passes through the
value for the exponential distribution (eq. 8) as the criterion, tf,o , for mini-
mum separation of independent events.
It is demonstrated in the Appendix how the CV(tb) can be calculated for
different values of tbmfn in a single processing of the original data. These cal-
culations lead to the values presented in Fig. 3 for three of the stations of
Table I. The interpolated intersections of these CV(tb) with the line,
CV(th )= 1, yield the values Of tb, shown in the figure and tabulated for all
seventeen stations in Table I.

so -,--^ --^ _.-^T-

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
TRIAL VALUE of MINIMUM TIME BETWEEN STORMS (doys)

Fig. 3. Determination of minimum time between storms.

AN EMPIRICAL'PEST OF THE INDEPENDENCE CRITERION

Since exponentiality of tg, and hence ( approximately) Of tb, is a sufficient

condition for the storm arrivals to be Poisson-distributed, we will test the
independence criterion in the context of Poisson modelling.
For Poisson arrivals of gamma-distributed storm depths in a homogeneous
rainy season, the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) of nornlalized
annual precipitation is:

DON002580
 313

(a) for rainy seasons of constant length, T= m, (Eagleson, 1978a):

(9)
= e-'"v { 1+^ (m^)°Plvtc, m xz] f
Prob IPA
mPA ^- z
l l „=i v 1

(b) for uniformly distributed rainy seasons ( Eagleson, 1980):

^k, To< T< 2m,-Ta (10)
fT(T) =
0, otherwise

k e wru }1 - e w h]-. k P(vfC, m„fCZ]

ProbI pA <z
mpa l <^7 CJ v=1

x (P[v+1, w]k+wTo ] -p[P + 1, wTo] } (11)

where
pA = annual precipitation
m,.A = mean annual precipitation
= mean number of storms per rainy season
= shape factor of gamma distribution of storm depth
T = length of rainy season
To = minimum length of rainy season
mz = mean length of rainy season
and by definition:
(12)
(average storm arrival rate) = m„/mT

and
(13)
wJk = 2(m. - wTo]
Analysis of five years of daily rainfall at Al Ta'if, Saudi Arabia, shows the
season length to be relatively constant with mT = 235 days. Successive com-
putations of CV (t„ ] in the manner described above leads to tb = 5.5 days,
as shown in Fig. 3. Also available at this station are nine years of annual rain-
fall and four years of 10-min. intensity-iiuration data. The former data are
plotted in Fig. 4 using the Thomas (1948) plotting position and they form a
base against which to test the Poisson model of eq. 9. The latter data are
used to give a first estimate of the Poisson parameters, ic = 0.43 and m„ =
34. Since the intensity-duration data are not continuous, the effective mini-
mum time between storms is unknown but from the data it is estimated to
be - 1 hr. or 0.04 days. Eq. 9 is plotted in Fig. 4, using these parameters and
is labeled tbmin ^ 1 hr.
The continuous daily data from Al Ta'if are analyzed successively for
tbmin = 2, 4 and 6 days. The corresponding values of ic and m„ are estimated
and eq. 9 is plotted for each case in Fig. 4A. If the annual series is actually

DON002581
314

Poisson, we expect a c.d.f. for tb(n = t6 = 5.5 days to best represent the
population distribution. Certainly, the Poisson agreement with the few plot-
ted observations improves with increasing t,,min , at least in the better-defined
high-frequency (low-recurrence interval) end of the distribution.
The same test is conducted in Fig. 4B and C for Dhahran and Riyadh,
Saudi Arabia - locations at which eq. 10 adequately describes the season

F ^tbmin ^ m. ^ K mr I
(days) (d0Y5)
0.04 34 0.43 235
2 {276 0.65 235
4 10.44 0.53 235 I \
6 9.11 0.65 235 4

1.25 2 5 10 20 50 100
1.01
RECURRENCE INTERVAL ( 9eors)

UHAHRAN
SAUOI ARABIA
2

o OOservations
-Poisson Model

tb ' mv K ^ m T
m
d0YS1 Itlays) (Gays)

12.15 0.54 115 44

I I 8,36 0,41 115 44
3 6.62 0.44 115 I 44

L - 37 0.40 115 ^ 44
.. ^.__.y...

01 1,25 2 5 10
RECURRENCE INTERVAL ( yearsl

DON002582
 315

006servafione
-Poiseon Mudel

m, mi
(bmin
(day0 tdays)

2 10.44 0.39 154 90

4 8.22 0,33 154 90

01 1 2^ 2 5 10 20 50 100
RECURRENCE INTERVAL ( years)

Fig. 4. Frequency of annual precipitation at: Al Ta'if, Saudi Arabia; Dhahran, Saudi
Arabia; and Riyadh,8audi Arabia.

length distribution. Once again, the daily data are analyzed repetitively both
to obtain tbe , as shown in Fig. 3, and to obtain the Poisson parameters of
eq. 11: (c, m,,, Ta and mT. The agreement between tbe and the best-fit tbml„
is remarkable in each case.
In Fig. 4C, the sensitivity to season length distribution is shown by also
presenting eq. 9, using the parameters for tbmla = 2 days.
It must be remembered that the purpose of isolating independent storms
has been the convenience which independence brings in solving a class of pre-
cipitation modeling problems. For other problems concerning the dynamic
response of hydrologic systems to precipitation inputs, the "interior" of the
individual events must be modeled. In such cases, the independent events
may not be the most appropriate since they can involve, particularly in arid
climates, long internal rainless periods. In particular, the idealization of
storm rainfall as a random sequence of rectangular intensity-pulses that is so
convenient in studying the statistics of event hydrology (Eagleson, 1972,
1978a), can become physically meaningless. That is, the equivalent uniform
storm intensity, i = h jtr, will have little physical significance as tbe gets
large and all shorter rainless periods become internal to the independent
events. For dynamic purposes, the distributions of the constituent storm
variables are more appropriately and conveniently determined from the
raw storm data without concern for independence.

DON002583
316

CLIMATIC VARIABILITY OF THE INDEPENDENCECRITERION

It would be useful to be able to estimate the minimum time between

storms, t„o , from other climatic parameters without the need to perform the
complete procedure outlined in the Appendix. It seems reasonable to expect
dependence of tba upon the humidity of the climate and we will measure
this (incompletely) by the average monthly precipitation intensity during the
rainy season.
Values of the climatic parameters are tabulated, along with tb, , for each
of the seventeen stations in Table I. The values of thp normalized by the
rainy season length are correlated with the average monthly precipitation in
Fig. 5. The solid line on this figure is the least-squares regression:
tno /m, = 1523 (mPA/mr)'i•sv (14)
which gives the coefficient of determination:
r2 = 0.83
mT = average
In eq. 14, mYA = average seasonal precipitation in millimeters;
length of rainy season, months; and tbo = minimum time between indepen-
dent storms, hours.

^ -1

m,
I ( mm/month)

Fig. 5. Minimum time between independent rainstorms.

DON002584
 317

The finding that tba is larger for arid climates than for humid ones results
from the clustering of aridelimate rainfall and the consequent dependence
of multiple storms upon the same large-scale weather system.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Exponentiality of the time between storms, tb, has been used as a suf-
ficient condition for the statistical independence of storm arrivals within the
restriction that overlapping is negligible (i.e. wmtr <41). A sample coefficient
of variation of unity, CV [tb ]= 1 was accepted as a sufficiently unambiguous
criterion for independence of arrivals on the basis of observations of expon-
tial-like distributions of tb from numerous series of raw storms. Causality
arguments have been used to justify using arrival independence also as an
approximate condition for independence with respect to the separate storm
variables such as depth and duration.
A convenient, simple algorithm is presented for obtaining CV[tb] from a
given storm sequence for successively larger minimum storm separation. Esti-
mates of tb, so obtained are shown to produce Poisson distributions of
annual precipitation which agree well with observed distributions at three
arid-climate sites. Values of t,,a from a wide range of climates are shown to
correlate with the rainy-season monthly precipitation thus providing a means
for estimating tb. without record analysis.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Support for this work was provided by the National Science Foundation
under NSF Grant No. ENG 76-11236.

APPENDIX

Methodology for calculating tbo

Let br, i = 1, ..., No, be the duration of the non-rainy period i, and No =
total number of non-rainy periods. Then, for tbmin = 0:

CV(0) = ftS2o-(S10 )a){N4/ (No -1)}]1n (A1)

s1.U

where

1 N^ 1 N (A-2), (A-3)
= N Y_ b3 and Si.o = No ^l bi
S2,0
o i=1

and CV(•) is the estimate of CV.

DON002585
318

Calculating a histogram for b; with a width of class equal unity, such that:

h; = (number of cases for which b; = J)

and
1)}]
f{S ^-(Si^ )Z}{N,l(Ni v2 (A-4)
CV(1) = Si

where

S2i = [Noglo-hi•12], N [No`^i,o_-hi'1]

Si,t =1
i ^
(A-5), (A-6)

and
(A-7)
N, = No'hi
In general,
CV(K) [{S2 K_"' (St rc )2 }{^ l(NK - 1)}l'^2 (A-8)
S i,K
where
- hK.K2 } (A-9)
S2, K NK-1 S2.x-I

1 (A-10)
hx Kl
S,x - NK[Nx tSi.xi
(A-1 1)
NA = Nx-1 ' hx
Finally,
tbm.n K, if CV(K) = 1
or by interpolation, when CV(K - 1) > 1 and CV(K) < 1:
tno = (K-1)4,[(CVx-i-1)/(CVx_i-CVrc)I (A-12)

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