Republic of the Philippines

WESTERN MINDANAO STATE UNIVERSITY

College of Engineering
Zamboanga City

Department of Environmental Engineering

Midterm EXAMINATION
EnE 143 – Environmental Modelling
First semester S.Y. 2023-2024

Part II. Take home exam.

Name: BELDEROL, JOEBERT

Direction: Show the codes using the chosen Language together with your answer, and graphs.

1. The Kermack-Mckendrick model for the course of an epidemic in a population is given by the system of
ODEs

𝒚′𝟏 = −𝒄𝒚𝟏 𝒚𝟐 ,

𝒚′𝟐 = 𝒄𝒚𝟏 𝒚𝟐 − 𝒅𝒚𝟐 ,

𝒚′𝟑 = 𝒅𝒚𝟐 ,

where 𝑦1 represents susceptibles, 𝑦2 represents infectives in circulation, and 𝑦2 represents infectives

removed by isolation, death, or recovery and immunity. The parameters 𝒄 and 𝒅 represent the infection
rate and removal rate, respectively. Use the fourth order Runge Kutta Method to solve this system
numerically, with the parameter values 𝒄 = 𝟏 and 𝒅 = 𝟓, and initial values 𝒚𝟏 = 𝟗𝟓, 𝒚𝟐 (𝟎) = 𝟓, 𝒚𝟑 = 𝟎.
Integrate from t = 𝟎 t = 0 to t = 𝟏 with step size, 𝒉 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟏. Can you find values for which the epidemic
does not grow, or for which the entire population is wiped out?
CODE AND GRAPH
2. The following system of ODEs, formulated by Lorenz, represents a crude model of atmospheric
circulation:

𝒚′𝟏 = 𝝈(𝒚𝟏 − 𝒚𝟐 ),

𝒚′𝟐 = 𝒓𝒚𝟏 − 𝒚𝟐 − 𝒚𝟏 𝒚𝟑 ,

𝒚′𝟑 = 𝒚𝟏 𝒚𝟐 − 𝒃𝒚𝟑

Taking 𝝈 = 𝟏𝟎, 𝒃 = 𝟖/𝟑, 𝒓 = 𝟐𝟖, and initial values 𝒚𝟏 (𝟎) = 𝒚𝟑 (𝟎) = 𝟎 and 𝒚𝟐 (𝟎) = 𝟏, integrate this
ODE using Euler’s method from 𝒕 = 𝟎 to 𝒕 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎 with step size 𝒉 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟏. Plot each of 𝒚𝟏 , and 𝒚𝟐 , and
𝒚𝟑 as a function of 𝒕, and also each of the trajectories (𝒚𝟏 (𝒕), 𝒚𝟐 (𝒕)), (𝒚𝟏 (𝒕), 𝒚𝟑 (𝒕)), and (𝒚𝟐 (𝒕), 𝒚𝟑 (𝒕))
as a function of 𝒕, each on a separate plot.

CODE AND GRAPH